Cindy Kate & Percy Date Night Mafia <3 [ENDGAME]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I want to see more dialogue between y’all. I will stay out of it for a bit and let it develop.

@lost monkey I need something from you. You’re not confirmed town and you’re not forgotten.

[MacDougall]

Is there any room for Sloonei being not a back up turned desperado?

Can Allcrab be a mafia watcher?

Can Jay and Gnome be scum teammates?

Can LoMo's role be mafia? Is his role 100% confirmed?

I know I'll get my head bitten off for "widening the POE" bit they are important questions.

The only non mafia mech clear is TSP I think? Is anyone else truly mech cleared from the mafia?

[MacDougall]

I guess if there are two mafia left things open up a bit more. LoMo and AllCrab can be teammates.

[Alison]

Sloonei's shot is confirmed.

Mechanically speaking I suppose Allcrab can be mafia, but I have other reasons to trust him.

You yourself have pointed out that Jay got cupid arrowed, why are you asking if Jay is mafia?

LoMo's role is confirmed by Allcrab, I guess it can in theory be mafia. I have other reasons to trust him (the way he handled his claim was townie, and nutella treated him like they were opposite alignment).

[Alison]

I guess if there are two mafia left things open up a bit more. LoMo and AllCrab can be teammates.

Teammates who counterclaim each other?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Allcrab is mechanically cleared from poisoner unless someone wants to propose his is ALSO a watcher and use both abilities simultaneously on different players.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The only thing technically confirmed about Sloonei is that a kill happened and the target flipped mafia.

Which is plenty for me.

[Alison]

Allcrab is mechanically cleared from poisoner unless someone wants to propose his is ALSO a watcher and use both abilities simultaneously on different players.

Doesn't that mean LoMo is also mechanically cleared from poisoner?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Allcrab is mechanically cleared from poisoner unless someone wants to propose his is ALSO a watcher and use both abilities simultaneously on different players.

Doesn't that mean LoMo is also mechanically cleared from poisoner?

Yes the same argument would apply.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Sloonei is not 3p if we broaden our generosity. To claim DESPERADO means if he doesn’t hit mafia and he doesn’t die and immediately looks like a clown. 3p won’t know orangecrush’s flip ahead of the shot.

[Alison]

A claimed desperado who has shot mafia would also be first in line for a nightkill which a 3P would not want to attract. So yes Sloonei is hard cleared.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

My sentences are terrible on mobile

[MacDougall]

Sloonei's shot is confirmed.

Mechanically speaking I suppose Allcrab can be mafia, but I have other reasons to trust him.

You yourself have pointed out that Jay got cupid arrowed, why are you asking if Jay is mafia?

LoMo's role is confirmed by Allcrab, I guess it can in theory be mafia. I have other reasons to trust him (the way he handled his claim was townie, and nutella treated him like they were opposite alignment).

Just trying to feed the conversation.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I was going to clear Martin from poisoner if he claimed the Gnome heal, but

[Alison]

I think Martin has been fairly townie today.

[MacDougall]

I think Martin has been fairly townie today.

I agree.

[TonyStarkPrime]

ok now I’m just confused

[TonyStarkPrime]

How are we to contend with an unclaimed heal. I am befuddled. Also maybe a little high

I have like six theories

[JaggedJimmyJay]

How are we to contend with an unclaimed heal. I am befuddled. Also maybe a little high

I have like six theories

Let's have 'em

[TonyStarkPrime]

@TonyStarkPrime @MacDougall can Allcrab be the poisoner given the Gnome confirmed I was targeted with an investigative ability? I’m clearly not poisoned. Please reconcile.

Yes this is plausible and allcrab ‘no u’ing being a poisoner makes it seem likely. The unclaimed investigative on garden suggests that the poisoner/ a wolf could have such an ability, and the general lack of a poison could just as easily clear anyone (who wasn’t blocked) from being the poisoner.

Though of course if Allcrab is the poisoner he poisoned Nanook so that does slightly complicate things

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I should state that I don't have a strong town read on Gnome. It is my first guess that she's town and I am pleased that's generally agreed upon, but it's not something I just know. For her to be mafia we'd need some extra moving pieces, e.g. a mafia healer Martin, a fake poison, or a passive immunity for Gnome herself (in addition to the role we share).

Our night chats were largely love letters and poems.

[Esooa]

The fact that I am not poisoned speaks well for Allcrab. Being investigative doesn't preclude being mafia.

Why would mafia have a watcher?

because then people make posts like this. Which is why mech sux

[Esooa]

Mac has been exclusively trying to widen the POE at all costs today and is thus scummy

huh

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I didn't try to save nutella. I did vote for Made, and I will tend to absorb most of the tried to save nutella presumption from that wagon because I am the loudest player on it, but I made just about zero effort to keep nutella alive. I was fine with her being eliminated, and I think that's visible in my posts if one just takes a look. Indeed when I actively promoted a non-nutella wagon around EOD it was for Owner.

You would have probably lynched me if given the chance on D1. You tried telling nutella was town thing but too many people didnt agree with you and then you changed to a i dont care with nutella getting lynched thing. I dont wanna wifom over you but ill wait for the made lynch to happen before i talk more. If she is actually scum then its fine if not you will be my scum read.

If Alison or Mac are scum, guillo should be given props for calling both out on d2 especially Alison.

Certainly. Both he and Gavial were treated like clowns in this game, and I hope it doesn't happen in the future -- especially if they turn out correct on key reads.

When was gavial treated like that? I thought the only thing we talked about is that we thought he might die together with you.

Early in the game when he was around he got his share of it. If town can finish this game with a win I am giving him a ton of the credit for any good things I was able to contribute to it. If he had just decided to be stubborn with me I'd have been dead a long time ago.

Lol if they would have put me with you, we both would have died lol. After everything that has happened, the d1 negative impression I got still doesn't let me give you a town read lol.

Please tell me more about me.

[TonyStarkPrime]

How are we to contend with an unclaimed heal. I am befuddled. Also maybe a little high

I have like six theories

Let's have 'em

They just got eaten by the nether but rapid fire, probably most likely to least likely:


1) fake poison
2) GG is immune, probably mafia
3) Martin lied as a wolf because ???
4) Martin lied as town because ??? (He trust told out of this one being likely)
5) poisoner is subject to certain limitations on who they can kill
I had a sixth one but it was bad and didn’t make sense

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I will resist the urge to go on some tantrum about fake poison being bastard.

[TonyStarkPrime]

@TonyStarkPrime @MacDougall can Allcrab be the poisoner given the Gnome confirmed I was targeted with an investigative ability? I’m clearly not poisoned. Please reconcile.

Yes this is plausible and allcrab ‘no u’ing being a poisoner makes it seem likely. The unclaimed investigative on garden suggests that the poisoner/ a wolf could have such an ability, and the general lack of a poison could just as easily clear anyone (who wasn’t blocked) from being the poisoner.

Though of course if Allcrab is the poisoner he poisoned Nanook so that does slightly complicate things

Like I’m not going to pretend it all fits particularly nicely but Allcrab’s reaction was not good. But I mean I also could be totally off base anyways and Mac just agreed to widen the Poe cause he’s not town but I actually think it’s a decent read

[JaggedJimmyJay]

There is evidence still floating out there I haven't collected yet by way of mafia interactions. I guess I'll go make them regret leaving me alive on Day 6 and stuff and things.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Would appreciate any feedback on this

[TonyStarkPrime]

Allcrab is mechanically cleared from poisoner unless someone wants to propose his is ALSO a watcher and use both abilities simultaneously on different players.

Yeah I mean seems reasonable

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Allcrab is mechanically cleared from poisoner unless someone wants to propose his is ALSO a watcher and use both abilities simultaneously on different players.

Yeah I mean seems reasonable

If not him, who ya got

[TonyStarkPrime]

If it’s a go on your own poisoner I assume they have some other abilities to back it up. If they just need X number of kills, maybe not but idk.

[Allcrab]

@TonyStarkPrime @MacDougall can Allcrab be the poisoner given the Gnome confirmed I was targeted with an investigative ability? I’m clearly not poisoned. Please reconcile.

Yes this is plausible and allcrab ‘no u’ing being a poisoner makes it seem likely. The unclaimed investigative on garden suggests that the poisoner/ a wolf could have such an ability, and the general lack of a poison could just as easily clear anyone (who wasn’t blocked) from being the poisoner.

Though of course if Allcrab is the poisoner he poisoned Nanook so that does slightly complicate things

How on earth do you say this while making it seem like I had TMI on who was most likely poisoned lmao.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Allcrab is mechanically cleared from poisoner unless someone wants to propose his is ALSO a watcher and use both abilities simultaneously on different players.

Yeah I mean seems reasonable

If not him, who ya got

What’s your role again

[TonyStarkPrime]

Oh the lover thing

[TonyStarkPrime]

Vote GG

[TonyStarkPrime]

I’m decently sold on the immunity thing

[TonyStarkPrime]

The “this is my last post alive” stuff sells it

[TonyStarkPrime]

I’m willing to accept that both me and Mac view the game in a different way which would have prevented us from voicing such assumptions about who the poisoner poisoned and that AllCrab saying something reasonable that we wouldn’t have said doesn’t automatically make him the poisoner but I think he’s a decent candidate

[Allcrab]

If TSP isn't poisoner after being purposefully disingenuous I will be floored.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I have an afternoon gardening job to go to in about half an hour and I don't expect to be back for EOD.
It is highly unlikely that I will survive the poison.
I want you all to know that I've had a lot of fun with this game. The cross-community game is awesome, and I am so happy that I got to play.
Please remember that the PoE now has to be everyone. Scum will be a lot harder to find at this point. Please don't assume that anyone is town on the basis of towny behavior! Anyway, those are my last words to you.
Good bye.
Go town!!!

What about this sells anything @TonyStarkPrime?

[Garden Gnome]

Vote GG

I don't think that I am yeet proof.
I'll just be a dead town.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I get a vague impression from Gnome in the night phase that she was surprised to be alive. It's not super clear though.

[Sloonei]

when does it become appropriate to mass claim? i ask this as i stare at the two people left who have not claimed.

[Allcrab]

1. TSP implies I have TMI on who was poisoned
2. TSP later implies Nanook was the likely poison

Someone explain to me how TSP as a villager is able to figure out Nanook was the likely poison independently but when I imply it in my post it's TMI. Ftr I don't think it's a hard thing to figure out that Nanook was the likely poison and I think TSP knows this which means TSP was purposefully shading on grounds he should know don't make sense.

Am I wrong here?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

when does it become appropriate to mass claim? i ask this as i stare at the two people left who have not claimed.

At this point I think we're only missing Tony.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

1. TSP implies I have TMI on who was poisoned
2. TSP later implies Nanook was the likely poison

Someone explain to me how TSP as a villager is able to figure out Nanook was the likely poison independently but when I imply it in my post it's TMI. Ftr I don't think it's a hard thing to figure out that Nanook was the likely poison and I think TSP knows this which means TSP was purposefully shading on grounds he should know don't make sense.

Am I wrong here?

I agree that it's a reach to call it TMI and for Mac to call it a good point.

I was the first person to post when day broke and I literally said the poisoner and mafia might have targeted the same person. So at the very least, even if someone doesn't think of that they are going to see it in my post. I don't think anyone's going to struggle to come to that conclusion.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I am looking forward to seeing the fake claim Tony is cooking up though. He's good at those.

[Allcrab]

[VOTE: MacDougall] aubergine

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Interactions of Made and MartinGG99

From Made

Spoiler: show

hi I have done the catch up! I can attempt some in depth reads later on when I'm on a computer but just wanted to let y'all know that I'm around a lil bit

What do you mean by attempt (or just in general) here?

Is there something on your mind that you're not sure about? If that's so, the could you share it?

I'm kinda out of things that catch my eye at the moment, and I don't really feel inspired, so I'm wondering if you have something that I haven't really thought about or noticed.

Made, a common man of common salt of the earth types, looked on in awe of Martin. Martin has always had that effect on Made. Martins way with words have once or twice been beyond Mades comprehension.
A simple man made to accept the difference found between us all.

What do you think is weird about saying attempt here?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

this is a weird take from Martin. I feel like if he's scum, being wishy washing, and then going on at length as to the flavor of the wishwash is the best way to add volume without substances on a slot that might need a mislynch later. Ironically, it's overly careful. I also don't think I would ever compare Gav's game to Gulio's game generally. they're just not similar like that.

@Sloonei did this end up influencing your decision to shoot? GTH i see Martin as scum doing what he's framing Gulio of doing, but if he set up the orange shot, that's complicated unless martin thinks he can make it to Fx with this push

Also, do we know how many scum are left?

my thought is if there's one, a power move this late in the game makes more sense, if there's 2, less so, which makes martin look a little better in that situation

Probably 2, but I don't know what you mean. What's Martin's power move?

His giant wall on OC. Depending on who holds poison power, it make sense as scum to dunk on your teammate, and ride it into a winning Lx--especially if the writing was on the walls for OC (I don't know how much that was the case cuz I wasn't in thread at the time). Winning L3 or L5 with this play better position rather than L5 on a flimsy raft. @MartinGG99 were you town in Nanook's "bastard" game?

I agree he has that comfortable-in-thread impulsiveness that is usually associated with town, but idk if you've ever been town when Guillo's been wolf, but he can fake that. He has compared himself to Gavial a few times, and I think that is actually a good comparison, they both are very good at bringing that impulsive posting style into their wolf games.

I'm not fully convinced he is a wolf, but I think the reasons he is being townread by most are exactly what you described, and having been on the losing side of wolf!Guillo multiple times, I don't think it is as AI as many people do. Take away his impulsive posting style, and what do you get?

Honestly removing "impulsive" from the equation and you can't really see much. I mean, to read him without impulsiveness in mind is kinda like not trying to read him at all fmpov.

The only evaluation at that point is the expectation that he has been hunting in reasonable faith. And whether he has been negatively affected during the night. I can't really think of anything else.

Can you elaborate on this? I'm not sure what you're saying here.

I'm not sure if I can elaborate effectively. I'm just pulling this straight from my head.

I mean. It's his style. I don't know how people read things without considering style, and whether doing so would be accurate.

If he's town I would have to take in that they're impulsive. If they're wolf I would have to take in fake impulsivity. In determining either I would have to consider the impulsivity and how that might influence a !town him unless I'm assuming he's a wolf.

this is a weird take from Martin. I feel like if he's scum, being wishy washing, and then going on at length as to the flavor of the wishwash is the best way to add volume without substances on a slot that might need a mislynch later. Ironically, it's overly careful. I also don't think I would ever compare Gav's game to Gulio's game generally. they're just not similar like that.

A few things:

--I think it's inherently going to look "weird" because of this.

--Wishy Washy? What in the world does that even mean in Forum Mafia?

--This isn't directly a take on Gulio. This is a take on what Seanzie asked me in regards to *how* one should read Gulio (shown in red glow); in no way is this going to lead directly to a deletion. I was arguing that he was suggesting to me to ignore Gulio's impulsiveness, and that is problematic because both wolf and town Gulio would use that and thus it would have to be considered even if it were NAI.

--What am I being very careful or overly careful about? What should I be concerned about that's supposedly making me careful here?

weird/sus, same thing, but avoiding hard stances is pro scum. What is your read on Gulio right now?

Eh that's probably a bad read, nvm

Martin still not mafia unless Alison is too tho

What's the relation between Martin and Alison?

Alison is hard townreading him

Any takes on Martin outside of Alison?

let's try this one!
[VOTE: Martin] aubergine

let's try this one!
[VOTE: Martin] aubergine

Your focus so far today has been almost exclusively spent on Martin. Why is this?

This isn't true, but I'm reading his iso so that's where my heads at. Do you have thoughts on Martin?

Yes, you have already asked me for them and I gave them to you.
Let me rephrase my concern: You came into today as the consensus top suspect. You have begun the day by picking Martin's name as the one you will be ISOing first. You have very quickly and very vehemently (by your standards in this game so far) campaigned for Martin to receive votes. Without looking at anyone else first.

It makes me think you pre-selected Martin as the most viable mischop in the game last night, and now you're trying to push us there.

I mean thoughts outside of what you said re: looking townie for the push on OC. Do you have thoughts on the context of the push now that you know that OC was scum?

And to be fair, yesterday I pushed cleared players lmao. The first player I iso'd today way Allcrab, Ur not reading my post sloonei

And to be fair, yesterday I pushed cleared players lmao. The first player I iso'd today way Allcrab, Ur not reading my post sloonei

You asked a question about whether Allcrab was cleared and offered no follow-up.

RE: Martin, I also feel like his reaction to Hawk's roleclaim on Day 3 looked authentic. I do not know whether or not Mafia Martin reacts as strongly as he did there, but my guess is that he does not.

I mean it's probably dishonest to call what i'm doing isoing, I'm kinda just hopping around thread following my nose. I don't know the exact steps that go me from Allcrab to reading Martin's iso, but I probably telegraphed it. The thoughts I'm having are the thoughts i'm saying.

I added the line of tildes to separate the first post in the spoiler, since it's the only one to come pre-Day 5. That first post is a small moment, and at this stage of the game I won't be making any guesses.

The rest is probably more important. When Made spent most of Day 5 as the odds-on chop, he chose Martin as his primary target to try to generate a counterwagon. As it happened, Martin actually did turn out to be the primary counterwagon -- it sat at 5-4 and 6-3 Made-Martin for much of the day while Sloonei and I roasted on Mac votes. So with that in mind I think it's fair to say Made was genuinely making an effort to get someone else into chop range to save himself. That doesn't preclude the distancing of teammates in this period of potential "anti-exposure", but we can still make a judgment call. I think it's a decent thing for Martin.

~~~

From Martin

Spoiler: show

hi I have done the catch up! I can attempt some in depth reads later on when I'm on a computer but just wanted to let y'all know that I'm around a lil bit

What do you mean by attempt (or just in general) here?

Is there something on your mind that you're not sure about? If that's so, the could you share it?

I'm kinda out of things that catch my eye at the moment, and I don't really feel inspired, so I'm wondering if you have something that I haven't really thought about or noticed.

Made, a common man of common salt of the earth types, looked on in awe of Martin. Martin has always had that effect on Made. Martins way with words have once or twice been beyond Mades comprehension.
A simple man made to accept the difference found between us all.

What do you think is weird about saying attempt here?

I don't think I said it was weird? I don't believe I was framing it negatively.

Fairly sure I made it clear that I was simply wondering if they were wondering about something that they simply hadn't mentioned. I wouldn't be surprised if we all had moments when we've thought about something but didn't even mention it.

I haven't been playing too close attention. Do we know why no one died N1?

Public theory based on Gaival is that Hawk got role-blocked on night 1 carrying the kill

idk if there's any other unless there's doctors or something

@MartinGG99 a reads list from you would also go a long way.

My current reads list looks like this:

As of p#4925

Actvscenei - Town-Lean
Alison - Town
Allcrab - Town-Lean
bad bunny - Scum-Lean
Dana - Town-Lean
Garden Gnome - Dunno
Guillotine - Town
hawkataine - Scum
JaggedJimmyJay - Town
Long Con - Dunno
lost monkey - Town-Lean
MacDougall - Dunno
Made - Town-Lean
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - Town-Lean
Sloonei - Town
Seanzie - Town
Sonny/Orange - Dunno
Tangrowth - Town

Basically you can see this as:

Town - I would never allow a deletion here.
Town-Lean - I would review them a bit more and probably defend them somewhat (or more if my town-lean or read is reassured) if they were on a chopping block.
Dunno - I would not care if this person was or wasn't on a chopping block; I have no confident read on them yet.
Scum-Lean - I would prefer to see this person gone, and would suggest it if one of my town-leans or town-reads are an alternative. Otherwise, who I prefer tends towards who's flip I think is likely going to shed light on others AKA the forbidden practice of info-yeet and circumstantial discretion.
Scum - Well, this is obvious. I would actively try to see them gone.

Keep in mind most of these reads may be a result from specifically mafia-hunting; I haven't really evaluated for 3P's or 3P potential. I also may be reviewing my town-leans soon at some point, I get the feeling there may be 1 mafia in there considering how some of my town-reads and town-leans have read each other. I just don't know who.

I have older (not-posted) versions of these if you want them, I used them to organize my general thoughts. Though I may not clearly recall my reasoning for some of those reads.

I received [an item] last night. So I would speculate that we have an abundance of gift-giving roles. I do not think I would have been Owner's target. She was more suspicious of me than not on Day 1.

Why didn't you say anything before?

There was no reason to.

And there is now?

Cancel my town read on you, this timing is pretty atrocious

Let's look into why Kito died las night.

Has someone claimed gifting something to Sloonei already? I have not seen it.

My personal opinion/theory is that they believed having Owner + Nutella flip, while Kito having unvoted at EoD1 and his D1 ISO, spewed him very likely town.

I think even more so if Made was town that they were trying to save Nutella on at EoD1. It could still be possible if made were mafia, and just the preferred mafioso to go, but I'm not really feeling that at the moment.

Besides, maybe its a moonshot to encourage friction among the town-read players. Could be my preference or confirmation bias though; I generally favor those kinds of kills if I were mafia and thought I wasn't in a good-enough position to make to an F-X and have a decent chance of winning F-X.

Oh I see, I was mistaken.

I thought traction was a reference to effort/influence. Forgot it referred to wagons.

I suppose that explains your earlier-D3 vote on me.

Was wondering how that came about.

In that case:

yeah that's fair. so do you think hawk's entire team is bussing her? if hawk ends up flipping town, where would you look next?

On an independent level, I'm fairly confident a number of the current Hawk voters are town. However, if we're going to assume suspicious votes or bussers, though:

Voters: Seanzie, Sloonei, Made, Actvscenei, Alison, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, MartinGG99, Garden Gnome, Guillotine, JaggedJimmyJay

For those in this color I wouldn't really question their vote at all. I strongly read these players as town for other reasons.

Sloonei (in this color) is a player who've I've partially sheeped other player's reads (namely my town-reads such as Alison or JJJ) on. Maybe it's because I haven't spent a lot of time thinking about it independently, but I have some trouble believing in a mafia world that contains him. It feels off if it did.

For those in this color, I do read these as a town-lean but I didn't feel entirely good about their votes. My gut has been slightly concerned about the votes being performative as these votes were in large posts that in some way or aspect stood out to me from their other posts. I could be wrong though.

For those in this color, I have no clue about them. Potentially because I may not be very good at reading them, but the same could be said for some of the other players (who are not part of this color).

Removing Nanook, the people who I personally would look to for possible bussing are possibly Made/Act/Garden, if bussing is presumed.

Honestly removing "impulsive" from the equation and you can't really see much. I mean, to read him without impulsiveness in mind is kinda like not trying to read him at all fmpov.

The only evaluation at that point is the expectation that he has been hunting in reasonable faith. And whether he has been negatively affected during the night. I can't really think of anything else.

Can you elaborate on this? I'm not sure what you're saying here.

I'm not sure if I can elaborate effectively. I'm just pulling this straight from my head.

I mean. It's his style. I don't know how people read things without considering style, and whether doing so would be accurate.

If he's town I would have to take in that they're impulsive. If they're wolf I would have to take in fake impulsivity. In determining either I would have to consider the impulsivity and how that might influence a !town him unless I'm assuming he's a wolf.

this is a weird take from Martin. I feel like if he's scum, being wishy washing, and then going on at length as to the flavor of the wishwash is the best way to add volume without substances on a slot that might need a mislynch later. Ironically, it's overly careful. I also don't think I would ever compare Gav's game to Gulio's game generally. they're just not similar like that.

A few things:

--I think it's inherently going to look "weird" because of this.

--Wishy Washy? What in the world does that even mean in Forum Mafia?

--This isn't directly a take on Gulio. This is a take on what Seanzie asked me in regards to *how* one should read Gulio (shown in red glow); in no way is this going to lead directly to a deletion. I was arguing that he was suggesting to me to ignore Gulio's impulsiveness, and that is problematic because both wolf and town Gulio would use that and thus it would have to be considered even if it were NAI.

--What am I being very careful or overly careful about? What should I be concerned about that's supposedly making me careful here?

weird/sus, same thing, but avoiding hard stances is pro scum. What is your read on Gulio right now?

I think you find it heavily implied in my first post of this day phase. Even before that, at EoD4 yesterday I ascribed myself to agreeing with most of JJJ's post.

Besides, I believe many (but not all) other people didn't take a hard stance of "Oh, Gulio's town" or "Oh, Gulio's Poisoner". Most just expressed a viability that he could be non-town.

Come to think of the poisoner is Martin.

With assuming 2 mafia and 3P in [Mac, Made, Martin, Allcrab]

The game could end that way however it wants and town would be safe.

You probably have to convince the thread that, when I'm flip town, who else it is and that it must absolutely be outside of that group.

Ignoring that both you and made are the current most likely mafia suspects

@MartinGG99 same question to you as the one directly above.

I would look to evaluating Allcrab + someone-else outside of that group for mafia compatibility.

JJJ + Sloon + LoMo I view as very unlikely non-town. TSP, of course, was desperado'ed. And then there are the Masons

In that "if" world where neither Made or Mac are mafia, I might even be forced to consider Alison as mafia in connection to Allcrab. Though I would very much dislike it coming to that (given what happened last time when I let paranoia linger) and probably re-evaluate the masons in comparison to Allcrab + Alison. Regardless, I think such a situation would be a problematic situation for me.

As it currently stands for me I don't think that outcome is very likely. I haven't really looked into it either.

My current world solve has Mac + Made as mafia and Allcrab as the most likely poisoner.

I'm not really bothered by people thinking I'm the poisoner given the circumstances. For all intents and purposes I don't have any sort of past-experience as 3P to know the differences between me as town and me as 3P so I can't really argue about it.

I'm not evaluating him for being mafia. I'm evaluating him for being the poisoner.

I think I've long considered (on D3 iirc when I thought Hawk was mafia) that Allcrab would have poor mafia teammate compatibility. I realize that doesn't really hold up as much anymore since that seems to apply to just about everyone alive now.

You suggested the reverse this morning. If Allcrab is now a mafia suspect instead, what changed to take him out of the poisoner slot and why does Mac move over to poisoner instead of someone else?

This (as linked above):

My current world solve has Mac + Made as mafia and Allcrab as the most likely poisoner.

Doesn't suggest the reverse.

If you're referring to the hypothetical earlier this day phase, which is the only time I've suggested Allcrab could be mafia recently:

It was a hypothetical world that I found unlikely.

You gave me an irrefutable green-check of both Made and Mac. That really changes things if so and would heavily suggest my view of the game is inherently wrong in some way. Such as potentially over-evaluating compatibility.

In no way was that post implying that I thought he was actually mafia.

I did have a mild look-through of those interactions earlier with regards to Mac. My current stance is that one of Made/Mac is mafia. GTH, as said before, it would be both of them.

It would surprise me if both were green. If Made somehow flips green though I will be putting more consideration into my mafia-hunting thoughts than I would if he flips red.

Regardless, I will look at Mac more in the future. Just more-so on Mac and others if Made flips green because atp town's in a problematic situation most likely.

Yeah, I think I'm probably conf-biased somewhat on Allcrab. I don't want to be on him as my legacy if I get mischopped; that would be potentially problematic for town if they heed the dead at all. His answer to me was overall a good look imo, 75 times out of 100 I say town is more likely to say this than wolf/3P.

I re-evaluated LoMo just in case and I still think he's town. I don't think I need to re-evaluate JJJ or Sloon.

I'm going to look at Tangy/TSP when I get the chance.

Because in terms of mech solve fmpov if poisoner is not Allcrab then it MUST be within Mac / TSP. It could technically be Made but I suspect him for being mafia.

I think I need to re-evaluate Mac just in general for whatever at some point regardless of EoD's flips.

I highlighted the first thing, which is just Martin's response to the first post in the previous spoiler. At the level of language I think it looks nice for Martin. That doesn't strike me as teammate communication. The rest of this is the sort of clinical solving we would expect from Martin, and Made's place in it essentially aligns with what is logical and what is happening in the thread. In that way it makes me feel nothing either way; it's default.

~~~

Conclusion

One is forced to confront the wifom here given the timing of events -- primarily Made's assault on Martin when he was about to be chopped. I've never been one to fear the risks of wifom. I think it's generally a positive look for Martin, if not necessarily resoundingly so.