The Fall of Númenor - Game Over!

[Syn]

one complication I see in the future is that the wolves get a vig N4 unless we prevent a kill tonight

10 players, chop, 9, NK, 8, chop, 7, vig due to odd + NK, 5

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

We can't prevent a kill tonight

Its fine I'm gonna have the solve by eod

[Syn]

a solving nanook?

could the prophecies be true?

[Creature]

We'll prob have to solve Esooa (doctor), Deli (jailkeeper) and NANOOK (parity cop) soon. Considering it is 7v3, unless a kill is prevented, two mislynches should win wolves the game. If NANOOK is the one lying here then Marmot and I could easily be both town set to be mislynched.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

a solving nanook?

could the prophecies be true?

I just solved your game didn't I

[Syn]

We'll prob have to solve Esooa (doctor), Deli (jailkeeper) and NANOOK (parity cop) soon. Considering it is 7v3, unless a kill is prevented, two mislynches should win wolves the game. If NANOOK is the one lying here then Marmot and I could easily be both town set to be mislynched.

hmmmmmmmmm yeah

@Esooa, @Deli, do you both hard claim your respective roles?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I think deli is the mafia in that difference check, hk vote and calling out could be cause they tracked and didn't see them go anywhere n1, coupled with hk nk, I think points towards deli

[Syn]

Mac has been wolfy af, I thought I had another reason to wagon him and then realized I completely misread the thread and it became irrelevant. I still think he is >rand a wolf but tbh I don’t think we should lunch there today probably.

who should we lunch then, and more importantly, why?

I DON’T KNOW. Congrats Syndicate, you’ve broken a Deli

I mean maybe we resolve the wagons and lunch falcon, but I actually think he has been villagery today in tone,

and Marmot has spiraled downward.

Creature seems fine for lunch, but his tone has also been fine today.

The only thing stopping me from saying 100% Syn is that if it is some kind of softed claim we always need to lunch outside of it.

Gavial also seems fine to lunch, they were wolfy d1 the entire time and haven’t improved at all on tone.

A gavial/wiml/Syn world actually exists tbh. Wiml shielding both of them now that it seems mechanically he is likely clear hmm and tbh not really seeing much gamesolving from wiml as of late, just quips to clear ppl.

I don't think I can call falcons tone today townie at all. He's asked a few questions but for the most part that's all he's been doing. It looks like good work but until he starts analyzing answers (and I'm not sure he's gotten them but also doesn't look like he's following them up or re-asking) I'm not sure that he's actually doing townie things.
Someone stopped the kill from happening last night, we know that to be true.

What we don't know is who was the NK target and who saved them. Esooa claims to have saved Wiml from the NK, Syn says that's a lie, but Syn also isn't ccing Esooa. I still believe Syn to be townie, even with the way he's clearly fucking around today.
I don't think Creature has been wolfy at all, I don't really get why people are wolf reading him.

Mac is an enigma wrapped in a puzzle wrapped in a soft burrito blanket. That is to say he's playing like Mac. Some trolling, some reads, and nothing you can take to a bank.

Marmot eh I guess? you know what you did marmot but really I don't see marmot wolf here either.

Gavial always seems like a chop to go for, I've had that thought a couple games now as both alignments. Definitely want to see more "solve" and less "I'm So RaNdOm" from him today.

Wiml is an interesting case. Only wiml and the wolves know for sure if he was the NK target or not. Even Esooa can't be 100% positive b/c he could have been JK even if she is the doctor.
I like his tone, and he's been doing some solving/making reads, so that's good.

what does HK mean here with his line about marmot

[Creature]

enough people have showed up

being confirmed town is fun

I'm the doctor and I protected wiml. I can self target/consecutive target so I have no real qualms with claiming rn

I doubt Esooa has any mafia motivation to claim doctor here. Esooa seemed pretty good D1 and claiming doctor is probably a death sentence here. The PR lying is probably between Deli and NANOOK. If Deli is the one lying, that means Wiml is probably cleared atp.

[Syn]

Reading HK's ISO, it reads strongly like he had a red check on Deli, but I can't decipher any meaning from his throwaway line on Marmot

[Syn]

okay no this makes sense

if he tracked Deli to Wiml and there was no kill, then his belief of me calling Esooa a liar parses (he even later says if he were the real doctor, he wouldn't directly CC the claim, softing that he thinks I'm CCing), and it explains his IMMEDIATE vote for Deli when Deli claims they JK'd Mac instead of Wiml if HK actually saw Deli go to Wiml

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

okay no this makes sense

if he tracked Deli to Wiml and there was no kill, then his belief of me calling Esooa a liar parses (he even later says if he were the real doctor, he wouldn't directly CC the claim, softing that he thinks I'm CCing), and it explains his IMMEDIATE vote for Deli when Deli claims they JK'd Mac instead of Wiml if HK actually saw Deli go to Wiml

I suspect he tracked deli nowhere

If deli carried they'd just claim their actual target presumably, especially if mafia knew which role wasn't in the game (seems likely given claims)


Regardless of the case it sure looks like hk was softing a red and him getting killed reinforces that

[Syn]

Deli's ISO is garbo but I can't tell if their interactions toward Mac are distancing or really pushing to set him up as a mischop after Falcon

[Syn]

I want to open up a creature deli and serve up some marmot

Why creature?

Why deli?

Why marmot?

Why don’t you explain anything? Can you please play the game and stop messing around?

I want to open up a creature deli and serve up some marmot

Why creature?

Why deli?

Why marmot?

Why don’t you explain anything? Can you please play the game and stop messing around?

this is why

[VOTE: Syn] aubergine

this is an amusing sequence of posts

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

What i don't understand is why they didn't claim the same target

[Creature]

Can we agree Esooa is likely town here?

If yes, then I think it may be more optimal for us to always lynch Deli here. If Deli flips jailkeeper then we almost always lynch NANOOK the next day. If Deli flips mafia then we can solve Marmot/me the next day.

[Syn]

Can we agree Esooa is likely town here?

If yes, then I think it may be more optimal for us to always lynch Deli here. If Deli flips jailkeeper then we almost always lynch NANOOK the next day. If Deli flips mafia then we can solve Marmot/me the next day.

the logic in this post is interesting

[Syn]

I would like to hear from the people not involved in any of this claim stuff

[Creature]

I kinda just want to simplify things.

If Deli is the one lying then we can clear NANOOK, Esooa and potentially Wiml. We'll also know one of Marmot/me is wolf and the last one should probably be between MacDougall/Gavial/Kami/Syn.

If NANOOK is the one lying then by then we'll only be able to really clear Esooa (assuming we lynch Deli first here). Anyone else could potentially be wolf.

If Esooa is the one lying then this strategy is probably straight out losing. Hence why would like input from everyone.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

If Deli is mafia i tend to think Marmot is the partner for the bolstering of the jk claim

[Marmot]

Heh

So, scum are pretty fucked

I'm the parity cop i have a difference check between Marmot and creature

HK's flip means there's also a difference check between esooa and deli


Dab

Awesome! It's probably Creature and Deli then. A lot of their interactions on Day 1 looked like softball teammate interactions.

[Syn]

I kinda just want to simplify things.

If Deli is the one lying then we can clear NANOOK, Esooa and potentially Wiml. We'll also know one of Marmot/me is wolf and the last one should probably be between MacDougall/Gavial/Kami/Syn.

If NANOOK is the one lying then by then we'll only be able to really clear Esooa (assuming we lynch Deli first here). Anyone else could potentially be wolf.

If Esooa is the one lying then this strategy is probably straight out losing. Hence why would like input from everyone.

Why would Wiml only be potentially cleared if Esooa is the doctor and Deli is lying?

[Syn]

Heh

So, scum are pretty fucked

I'm the parity cop i have a difference check between Marmot and creature

HK's flip means there's also a difference check between esooa and deli


Dab

Awesome! It's probably Creature and Deli then. A lot of their interactions on Day 1 looked like softball teammate interactions.

you can't make posts like these dawg

[Marmot]

You're not my dad Syn.

[Esooa]

I'm confused about how the difference is between me/deli and marmot/creature

what are your NAs?

[Creature]

I kinda just want to simplify things.

If Deli is the one lying then we can clear NANOOK, Esooa and potentially Wiml. We'll also know one of Marmot/me is wolf and the last one should probably be between MacDougall/Gavial/Kami/Syn.

If NANOOK is the one lying then by then we'll only be able to really clear Esooa (assuming we lynch Deli first here). Anyone else could potentially be wolf.

If Esooa is the one lying then this strategy is probably straight out losing. Hence why would like input from everyone.

Why would Wiml only be potentially cleared if Esooa is the doctor and Deli is lying?

Only way Wiml could be mafia here is if wolves decided to nokill N1. Doubt that is the case so would say just cleared.

[Esooa]

also rip on falcon being town. I was pretty surprised

[Marmot]

Well, the Marmot/Creature one is clear, esooa

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

I'm curious why Creature isn't voting for me right now.

[Esooa]

oh wait the between me/deli is cause of claims

now I get it

[Creature]

I'm confused about how the difference is between me/deli and marmot/creature

what are your NAs?

NANOOK is claiming parity cop that got info that Marmot and I are different alignments.

There's also been a doctor, a jailkeeper and a parity cop claim while hollowkatt flipped tracker, so we know one of them is lying.

[Marmot]

Can we agree Esooa is likely town here?

If yes, then I think it may be more optimal for us to always lynch Deli here. If Deli flips jailkeeper then we almost always lynch NANOOK the next day. If Deli flips mafia then we can solve Marmot/me the next day.

Oh, you are voting for me.

But this post is... Odd? If you're town and you believe Nanook's claim, shouldn't I be obvious mafia to you?

[Creature]

Well, the Marmot/Creature one is clear, esooa

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

I'm curious why Creature isn't voting for me right now.

I'm voting you, but I think it'd be more optimal to lynch Deli first.

[Marmot]

Nah, I think that's an attempt from Creature trying to get rid of PRs first.

[Creature]

Can we agree Esooa is likely town here?

If yes, then I think it may be more optimal for us to always lynch Deli here. If Deli flips jailkeeper then we almost always lynch NANOOK the next day. If Deli flips mafia then we can solve Marmot/me the next day.

Oh, you are voting for me.

But this post is... Odd? If you're town and you believe Nanook's claim, shouldn't I be obvious mafia to you?

There's a chance you might be town if NANOOK is lying here. Hence I want to sort into the PRs first.

[Esooa]

Nah, I think that's an attempt from Creature trying to get rid of PRs first.

if this is the case you believe that Dell is jk and either me/nanook are lying

do you?

[Marmot]

Nah, I think that's an attempt from Creature trying to get rid of PRs first.

if this is the case you believe that Dell is jk and either me/nanook are lying

do you?

I believe that Deli is the one lying... But I do need to think about it.

I guess what I'm saying is that if we yeet among the claims today, there's a chance we hit PR. If we yeet among myself/Creature today, we're never going to lose a PR.

[Marmot]

I get the impression that HK tracked Deli Night 1 which is why he thought Deli was lying about his JKing.

Or maybe he just thought Deli was lying.


That fact that HK was killed last night does support that argument.

[Esooa]

why do you completely believe nanook

[Marmot]

Mac has been wolfy af, I thought I had another reason to wagon him and then realized I completely misread the thread and it became irrelevant. I still think he is >rand a wolf but tbh I don’t think we should lunch there today probably.

who should we lunch then, and more importantly, why?

I DON’T KNOW. Congrats Syndicate, you’ve broken a Deli

I mean maybe we resolve the wagons and lunch falcon, but I actually think he has been villagery today in tone,

and Marmot has spiraled downward.

Creature seems fine for lunch, but his tone has also been fine today.

The only thing stopping me from saying 100% Syn is that if it is some kind of softed claim we always need to lunch outside of it.

Gavial also seems fine to lunch, they were wolfy d1 the entire time and haven’t improved at all on tone.

A gavial/wiml/Syn world actually exists tbh. Wiml shielding both of them now that it seems mechanically he is likely clear hmm and tbh not really seeing much gamesolving from wiml as of late, just quips to clear ppl.

I don't think I can call falcons tone today townie at all. He's asked a few questions but for the most part that's all he's been doing. It looks like good work but until he starts analyzing answers (and I'm not sure he's gotten them but also doesn't look like he's following them up or re-asking) I'm not sure that he's actually doing townie things.
Someone stopped the kill from happening last night, we know that to be true.

What we don't know is who was the NK target and who saved them. Esooa claims to have saved Wiml from the NK, Syn says that's a lie, but Syn also isn't ccing Esooa. I still believe Syn to be townie, even with the way he's clearly fucking around today.
I don't think Creature has been wolfy at all, I don't really get why people are wolf reading him.

Mac is an enigma wrapped in a puzzle wrapped in a soft burrito blanket. That is to say he's playing like Mac. Some trolling, some reads, and nothing you can take to a bank.

Marmot eh I guess? you know what you did marmot but really I don't see marmot wolf here either.

Gavial always seems like a chop to go for, I've had that thought a couple games now as both alignments. Definitely want to see more "solve" and less "I'm So RaNdOm" from him today.

Wiml is an interesting case. Only wiml and the wolves know for sure if he was the NK target or not. Even Esooa can't be 100% positive b/c he could have been JK even if she is the doctor.
I like his tone, and he's been doing some solving/making reads, so that's good.

what does HK mean here with his line about marmot

I killed him so you could never know the answer.

[Marmot]

why do you completely believe nanook

I didn't say that.

I do believe Nanook, but I'm sorting through players one at a time and haven't gotten to him yet.

[Marmot]

wolves know which role is not in the game

How?

wolves know which role is not in the game

Not necessarily, they could've rolecopped someone instead

N1, Palantír: Target any player to learn their role, or target yourself to learn which Loyalist role is not present in the setup.
if I were wolfing here I'd 100% have used that action to know what I'm working around instead of trying to rolecop. I expect competent wolves would go for the most information possible

Eh, id go for the rolecop personally I think

It would be really funny and brilliant if this is what happened, Nanook role copped hk on Night 1.

So, it is possible that Nanook is mafia, and copped HK and discovered his role. Day 2 ended with the other 2 PRs claiming, leaving mafia with all the information they'd need for a fakeclaim.

I was really hoping we'd have a doc, this is great

This other post from Nanook on Day 2 also supports that he didn't know there was a doc in this game (and it also supports the notion that Nanook is a cop imo).

I'm surprised we're spending so many of our limited posts bickering and openwolfing. Can we please be more diligent with how we're using our posts?

Scummy post

[VOTE: marmot] aubergine

I don't really think syn is mafia tbh this would be a fairly bizarre line if he is, he's probably just town fucking around

Also, Nanook did vote for me and call me scum on Day 2, which contributes to the notion that he was a parity cop who wanted one of his peeks to flip for reference.

tldr, Nanook is probably telling the truth.

[Wiml]

Heh

So, scum are pretty fucked

I'm the parity cop i have a difference check between Marmot and creature

HK's flip means there's also a difference check between esooa and deli


Dab

HK scumread Deli, didn't believe their claim (look into: could he have tracked Deli N1? I believe they were his top SR?) and was the kill.

I think the wolf is always between Nook and Deli and I see no reason for Nook to claim here like this.

Also means I'm conftown if Deli is wolfing?

And yeah you all hammered just as I was getting back into the game lol.

[Creature]

Still think the most optimal would be to lynch Deli here.

tbh, besides NANOOK, I don't really see any utility left in the remaining PRs as the Sceptre of Arduino seems to be some sort of strongman. If we can sort Deli today, we'll either learn NANOOK is telling the truth and there's confirmed wolf between Marmot and me or we may narrow it down to Esooa/NANOOK and if the latter flips wolf then Marmot and I could still be both town. Otherwise we'll still have to sort between the PRs tomorrow in a possible MyLo if we lynch the wrong one between Marmot and me.

[Marmot]

Heh

So, scum are pretty fucked

I'm the parity cop i have a difference check between Marmot and creature

HK's flip means there's also a difference check between esooa and deli


Dab

HK scumread Deli, didn't believe their claim (look into: could he have tracked Deli N1? I believe they were his top SR?) and was the kill.

I think the wolf is always between Nook and Deli and I see no reason for Nook to claim here like this.

Also means I'm conftown if Deli is wolfing?

And yeah you all hammered just as I was getting back into the game lol.

If Nanook doesn't claim here, we'd have two living PRs and one dead one, meaning we've probably have to believe Deli's claim in spite of what HK had said.

[Gavial]

Heh

So, scum are pretty fucked

I'm the parity cop i have a difference check between Marmot and creature

HK's flip means there's also a difference check between esooa and deli


Dab

Oh shit!
Nice!

Pretty sure Esooa is the Town and that means my Deli read was hella wrong.
Not sure on Creature or Marmot though, could be either.

[VOTE: Deli] aubergine

[Wiml]

I was starting to tinfoil Deli pre-claim. Their claim makes sense from a wolf perspective to self pres and to discredit me I suppose? Hk's death points to Deli being a wolf too.

I am shocked if Esooa is wolfing tbh.

After my initial reaction that he wouldn't lie, I need to assess the merits of a Nook fake claim here (he's a PoE slot and getting two miselims before dying is probably a good trade). But if Nook is a wolf candidate we never chop him today so he can get another peek.

Sorry if ly thoughts are scattered, I'm really exhausted right now and will try to contribute better shortly.

[Wiml]

I think Deli probably dies today but let's not have a bad early hammer?

[Gavial]

Actually wait.
What makes you the real PR and why can’t you be scum fake claiming Parity Cop since Esooa and Deli already claimed and HK flipped.

[Creature]

[VOTE: Deli] aubergine

Unless someone thinks Esooa can still be wolf here. Though, in that case I'm way too tired for that scenario.

[Gavial]

Still hesitate because Nanook could be scum.
Thus if Deli flips Town I’m omega voting Nanook into a death tunnel tomorrow.