The Fall of Númenor - Game Over!

[Creature]

Okay this is not fair for Marmot at all. I'm very sorry.

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

[Wiml]

[VOTE: Creature] aubergine

I think this is only fair tbh.

[Esooa]

[VOTE: creature] aubergine

[Marmot]

Well, self-hammer is one way to do it.

Sorry Creature, I'm not upset, just wanted to dissuade you from taking that approach

[Syn]

are you guys for real

[Syn]

well, it's hammered. guess we stop posting

cool

[Creature]

Guess I miss having school stuff and even work stuff to do. At least I wouldn't feel empty for about two months.

[Esooa]

it's not a problem. It happens lol and the game will continue on fine imo

[Creature]

The thing is this is not the first time it happened to me yet I mindlessly committed the same mistake again.

[Gavial]

Yeah I do think it might be Mac.
I’m gonna make (or try to make) a big boy case on them tomorrow!

[Urist]

Vote Count 4.Final

Creature (5) - Gavial, MacDougall, Kami, Creature, Wiml
Marmot (1) - Syn

Not Voting (2) - Marmot, Esooa

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to execute.



Day Four Final Post Counts

Kami - 106 / 113 (7 left)
Marmot - 134 / 145 (11 left)
Creature - 149 / 162 (13 left)
Esooa - 165 / 181 (16 left)
Syn - 155 / 171 (16 left)
MacDougall - 159 / 178 (19 left)
Gavial - 146 / 169 (23 left)
Wiml - 136 / 171 (35 left)

[Urist]

The Great Armament is prepared. Our meteorologists predict that wind conditions will be favourable for the next few days. The distance from our home-port of Andúnië to the staging point of Tol Eressëa is approximately 1700 kilometres... with luck, we'll arrive within a fortnight. The men are nervous, and for good reason. Not one of us can know what to expect from the so-called Undying Lands. It would be a great comfort to have Sauron accompany us on the journey, but the King has elected to leave him as regent in his absence. We have Melkor's blessing. With any luck, that'll be enough to bury the Valar.
- From the journal of Sakalthôr, captain of the Alcarondas.

Night Four has fallen.

Spoiler: show

Creature was executed. They were Elendili.

Night three ends on Monday June 14 at 12:00 pm EST.

[Urist]

Narsil is a fine weapon! During my apprenticeship in Khazad-dûm I learned a great many things from the finest dwarven smiths of our time, but even they are not capable of recreating such a thing today. I won't say that the magic in dwarven craftsmanship (craftsdwarfship?) is gone, but it has certainly dwindled. And although the rings of power given to the dwarves by Sauron have triggered a sort of renaissance in weaponsmithing, I can't help but feel that a sense of ennui is permeating their society. The idea that their greatest masterworks are far behind them - works such as the Dragon-helm of Dor-lómin, also forged by Telchar, will never come close to being reproduced - has dampened their creative spirit. Anyway, Narsil truly is a one-of-a-kind artifact, and if any weapon is capable of taking out the Ainur, it's that one. It's just a shame it won't be with us when we sail East.
- From the journal of Zôrzimril, smith in Armenelos.

The Fifth Day has dawned.

Spoiler: show

Esooa has died. They were the Loyalist Healer (Doctor).
Wiml has died. They were a Loyalist (Vanilla).

Some reminders:

• Deadline is Wednesday, June 16 at 12:00 pm EST.
• With 5 players alive, 3 votes are required to execute someone.
• Your end-of-day post count was listed in the final vote count of day four. Add 50 to that to get your post cap for today.
• Flavour has been added to the SoD4 and EoD4 posts.

Spoiler: show

@MacDougall
@Gavial
@Kami
@Syn
@Marmot

[Syn]

talked myself into the wrong solve and I can't even sheep Esooa today

[Marmot]

5 players left. 1 of them are Ellendil.

I'm confirmed town at this point. Syn is most likely town due to spew.

That leaves someone among Kami, Gavial, and Mac.


We've got two chances, I like our odds here.

[Syn]

well, yes I can

let me BACK READ

[Syn]

I am 82% sure it is not Mac

[Syn]

Esooa didn't say which of Kami and Gavial to go with

reeeeee

[Syn]

Well, hi, Marmot. You're lock green. What's the dill

[Marmot]

Kami surprised me with their vote for Creature yesterday, ngl. I do think Creature and his partner had a chance to push my yeet, so Kami not eventually doing that does have me scratching my head a little bit.

[Marmot]

Spoiler: show

Time for me to go over everyone:

Syn - Starts out with a WimL push. Claims they are willing to hammer any wagon then tells someone to hammer WimL. I’m assuming WimL is just a placeholder, from what I can tell from HK’s question Is that Syn has reads on Falcon or Deli but hasn’t mentioned them until that point.

Mac Dongull - Comes in first thing with the sheep vote, boy what a play!
Smacks em up next with that double deal town read.
Retracts that baby into the triple!
I question that guy about having those triples in mind for later and this boy hits me up with the “bad memory” excuse. Prob Town.

Hollowkat - Starts with the good ol’ locka town on the “first” poster.
In responses pops stuff up with some quick early reads!
Wants to be pocketed by Syn.
I really like HK’s readslist. Not the reads itself because it’s wrong but that is definitely the way to go about this kinda game!

Creature -
Complains about post restriction and town reads Falcon. Thinks they could wolf read Nanook according to their response towards Hollowcat. :/.
Votes me because I “disappeared”.
Throws us 5 town reads although I don’t think they ever mentioned Deli before this.
I want to say that despite this not looking so great, probably just town playing it in a different approach.

WimL -
I like the 2 in one combo! Entrance + Reaction post.
Doesn’t really show signs of survival as told Syn straight up they wouldn’t be mad if WimL got hammered.
Calls my entrance post bad but has good justification for it. I’m just trying to go try hard this game though in my defence.
Gives Falcon a Town Lean and puts Esooa/Deli Town. I like how they are going about these early reads ignoring the fact they are susing + voting me.

Marmot - Very Active

Falcon -
Doesn’t like being third and wishes for more is what I’m getting from his entrance post.
Claims to Nanook he is town which from what I remember in a previous town game of his probably means he is town.
Has an issue with 5 town reads at once.
Well then he’s probably not going to like this post lol.

Deli -
Ah the good ol “I’m Nub on this site” approach.
Claims WimI spews himself later on in the game which is notable.
Other then that I don’t really notice much else except maybe the joke post regarding Kami with HK’s readslist.
Prob Nub town if I had to take a shot in the dark.

Kami -
Comes straight in with the Nanook vote.
Also calls me a wolf, not surprising as I’m usually a Willager.
Nothing real else to note.

Ignoramus - Scum Reads me for “GTH Spamming Posts” and my bluff or not bluff post. Not to mention using HK’s reads to add in my name on HK’s list that wasn’t present in HK’s list. Other then that the only things of his that stand out to me is maybe the Town read on Nanook and Gut Scum Read on Falcon.

Nanook - Being Nanook

Esooa - Most notable thing is that push and interaction they had with Falcon

Here’s my solve:

GTH Top 7 Town:
Mac Dongull, Falcon, Hollowcat, WimL, Creature and Deli
6-Man PoE Scum Pool:
Syn, Ignoramus, Kami, Marmot, Esooa and Nanook because leftover.

Gavial's reason for townreading Creature here is kinda bad. A lot of these reads are really just summaries of what players had done to this point, but looking at Creature's summary:

Creature -
Complains about post restriction and town reads Falcon. Thinks they could wolf read Nanook according to their response towards Hollowcat. :/.
Votes me because I “disappeared”.
Throws us 5 town reads although I don’t think they ever mentioned Deli before this.
I want to say that despite this not looking so great, probably just town playing it in a different approach.

Gavial gives Creature a :/ face for the first point.
Gavial doesn't comment on the second point (but really, that's not a great reason to vote someone, and I'm surprised Gavial didn't comment on it).
Gavial mentions the read discrepancies that Creature had with what is no a confirmed scum.

And yet, Gavial came away with a townread.

[Marmot]

I want to open up a creature deli and serve up some marmot

Marmot you say?
You haven’t mentioned them much why do you read them as scum or partners with creature/Deli?

This is also a notable post. Gavial asks Syn why he thinks I (confirmed town) are partnered with Creature/Deli (confirmed scum), especially considering Syn mentioned us all in the capacity in his sentence, and that Gavial opted to split the three people up based on their alignments.

It is true that Syn hadn't talked about me much to this point, but he hadn't talked about Creature either. Syn's ISO to this point had treated Creature and I essentially the same, though Gavial did not treat it this way.

[Marmot]

Looking through Mac's ISO

Spoiler: show

Meh, self-restricting myself in posting is really boring. I think I would rather run out of posts halfway in the day than allow some game stagnancy and we all should be doing the same. Like, I think there's no difference if we end up choosing a lynch and running out of posts halfway in the day except we'd have to wait a little longer for the day to end.

Only townreading falcon so far.

[VOTE: Wiml] aubergine

I am now townreading two people.

Sorry three people.

Note to self for later. Creature, Falcon, Hollowkatt are town.

Mac gave Creature an early townread. Not great, but whatever.

Spoiler: show

Deli probably town.

Then Mac gave Deli a townread.

Spoiler: show

Fairly sure Wiml is wolfing though, and Esooa is town. Also think Wiml spewed Deli town.

This is another weird read, and less of a good look for Mac. I finds a chance to call Deli town based on Wiml spew.

Spoiler: show

Pretty confident townreads

hollowkatt
Esooa
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

Moderately confident townreads

falcon45ca
Syn

Not sure, kinda towny maybe

Creature
Gavial
Kami

Kinda scummy but I have a sense I might be reading these people wrong

Marmot
Deli

Just wolfy

Wiml
ignoramus

Deli dropped from a townread to marginal scumread at this point on Day 1, Creature maintained his TR status. Nothing really wrong with this.


Mac didn't talk to or about Creature or Deli on Day 2, and Mac even postcapped this day. I actually think this is a good look for Mac. I think he would not completely ignore his teammates for a full day.

Spoiler: show

Deli's Nook world.

3 town flips. Healthy game state for mafia Nook.

Nook decides to out himself by fake claiming cop so he can chop exactly Deli and Marmot in order to win the game.

As opposed to just ... not doing that?

If Nook is fake then the real PR will out. You should be pushing Esooa but you aren't. Cuz you know you can't.

Day 3, Mac does buy into the Deli wolf strategy immediately, and makes a good case for town Nanook.

Mac does push for me being scum over Creature. but Mac did strongly scumread me from Day 2 (and scumreads me every game anyway), so this is at least consistent with his play this game. That said, this is probably a comfy position for Mac to be in as scum if he gets me yeeted before Creature, because it easily puts him in F3 with presumably Kami and Gavial.

So yeah, Mac does get credit for helping yeet Deli, but given his pushes otherwise, I don't think it deserves a lot of credit. There is other motivation that is possible here.

Spoiler: show

Deli is obvious wolf. Really no need to do anything else. Marmot feels obvious to me as well but you all probs need the Deli flip to get comfy with it.

nanook thinks I go with deli/marmot worlds... that's some wack ass analysis. Deli/marmot thinks I go with syn/nanook worlds thats less wack. What to do with that information hmmmm.

kinda think nook is smart enough to claim and keep bullshitting his way through to endgame with checks and wifom. I think we need to chop deli to sort him cuz sleeping and then nook living and like some random dying kinda just leaves us in the same place? If we chop deli and he's town we can just insta chop a wolf tomorrow. If we chop wolf then good shit obvs.

I would be like...
chop deli/marmot
infochop nanook
sleep

in order of preference.

I was pretty locked into believing nook before but with his wack ass analysis of me being in his poe with how obvious it is that I'm not with deli or marmot that's been rocked.

I think wiml is spewed town by gamestate. Esooa is town too which adds to that.

Creature/marmot difference heavily favours creature.
Deli/esooa is a dichotomy produced by nook and esooa is just town so its really a deli/nanook dicho. They're never together.

Marmot goes with deli hand in glove. That eod is a perfect how do you do of Marmot's wolf play. Deli's claim is omega suckfest.

Nanook is probably real but if he isn't then he's done this to next level fux with us. He doesn't out knowing he's creating an easy to solve fullteam dicho. He's probably real but if he isn't he's probably... no he's just real.

Maybe sleeping is right... Fuck nanook why did u have to intro that wack ass analysis.

im so sure esooa is real that I probably wanna just chop deli and live with the consequences of being wrong over sleep so [VOTE: deli] aubergine

Although now that I read Mac's though process in yeeting Deli Day 3, I'm coming back around to town Mac. He even talked about how if Nanook isn't the cop, the best way to figure it out is by yeeting someone else, not by sleeping. I like this whole progression.

Again, Mac would already be in a comfy position without saying all of this, so the fact that he did do all this work raises his town equity. I don't think scum Mac would spend this much energy game-solving and trying to set a clear-cut strategy, even if it's wrong, he'd imbue more chaos into this.



Addendum: Mac's ISO isn't perfect, but I think he's town.

[Syn]

Creature made the same case on chopping Deli over the alternatives, no?

[Marmot]

Creature made the same case on chopping Deli over the alternatives, no?

Yeah it's true, do you think both teammates did that?

Creature also threatened to break the postcap to get modkilled, which was never going to work for scum unless people angleshot-read that as townie and yeeted me instead.

[Marmot]

Fwiw, Gavial did immediately accept the Nanook result before talking himself out of it and scumreading Nanook.

[Syn]

Creature made the same case on chopping Deli over the alternatives, no?

Yeah it's true, do you think both teammates did that?

Creature also threatened to break the postcap to get modkilled, which was never going to work for scum unless people angleshot-read that as townie and yeeted me instead.

I am not sure, tbh. I think they could have managed a sleep/chop Nanook scenario without Creature's early bus, and especially if Mac hadn't come in knocking over the table lamp at EOD. If they were resigned to the one-two chop, then Mac being the killing blow just as it looks like we're going to twiddle our thumbs is great town cred.

but at the same time, one big reason why I suspected Deli was how they handled Mac, and I really did think Deli specifically citing Mac as the "town is being manipulated by master wolves" suspect was outing when their answer was "I've never played with Mac before" when I asked about it. I'm not sure wolf!Mac would get an unfamiliar wolf partner to make a meta read on him, as it's pretty sloppy, but I could see another partner talking about Mac's meta in wolf chat and then Deli accidentally using it in-thread

which is incidentally why I suspected you of being partnered with Deli, because you know Mac and I could see you telling the team to try and set Mac up

I don't think Creature knows Mac either?

so the two flipped wolves don't know Mac's meta, but Deli used Mac's meta to set Mac up

does Kami know Mac?

(yes I realize me pushing the "used Mac's meta" angle means I become a suspect)

[Syn]

oh fuck that was dangerously close to a wall post

[Marmot]

A lot of that points to Gavial (someone who's familiar with Mac) being the final scum over Kami (someone who I don't think is familiar with Mac) being scum, in that they can inform the other two wolves.

I don't think Mac knows Kami, and this post would suggest that's correct.

Kami why did you sign up to our site with two user names? You're also @MissSparkles right?

I think esooa was the one who invited Kami to the Syndicate, but I could be wrong.

[Marmot]

I came into the day with my order of suspicion being Kami > Gavial > Mac > Syn, but now I suspect Gav pretty firmly over the other two.

[Syn]

Gavial did a total 180 on Mac during D4, from considering him clear and me scummy to considering him the most likely partner

Gavial is the last wolf and knows Deli and Creature are going over

What is his route to victory?

Marmot
Syn
Mac
Kami
Gavial

The POE difference check is between Gavial/Kami. Gavial obviously does not want this. Chopping Mac would be ideal.

Marmot
Syn
Kami
Gavial

Marmot is the NK.

Syn
Kami
Gavial

F3, where Syn (hey, that's me) has been strongly suspecting Kami and ended D4 with considering Kami to be the last partner.

[Syn]

Gavial might also think he could convince Kami to vote me F3 too

[Marmot]

Acually, looking back at Kami's Day 3, I feel worse there lol. They called Deli town the whole day, and voted Mac, Nanook and Syn.

Kami's Day 4 wasn't great. They never talked about Creature, and only talked about me when I associated them with Creature. They then accused me of lying when I pointed out that Deli was trying to yeet Mac on Day 2. But Kami eventually voted for Creature despite being in a position where it made more sense to vote for me, and it happened after I acknowledged their argument and that I didn't fully understand their behavior.

It's the one thing that makes me think Kami is possibly town. As scum, they were incentivized to yeet me yesterday, but chose to back off of their OMGUS of me when I also backed off.


Also, esooa's legacy is that Kami is town.

[Syn]

I really did think yesterday was just theatre between you and Kami lmao

[Marmot]

Oh it totally was. We're both wolves.

[MacDougall]

5 players left. 1 of them are Ellendil.

I'm confirmed town at this point. Syn is most likely town due to spew.

That leaves someone among Kami, Gavial, and Mac.


We've got two chances, I like our odds here.

Reconsider this.

[MacDougall]

I just skimmed Creature's day 3/4 and didn't super love how Syn comes off. Creature kinda hellbussed Deli d3. There are certain moments between them that make me question Syn.

[MacDougall]

Syn's day 2/3 now looks like TMI. If Syn is mafia then the three of them essentially just brutalised each other all game. I kinda feel it.

[Syn]

lol

[Syn]

have yourself a good poop, Mac. your feelings are just constipation

[Gavial]

Kami surprised me with their vote for Creature yesterday, ngl. I do think Creature and his partner had a chance to push my yeet, so Kami not eventually doing that does have me scratching my head a little bit.

Mac wanted to go with you and has been calling you and deli the team and voted you originally but then shifted to creature when majority of us figured out it was creature and not you.

[Gavial]

5 players left. 1 of them are Ellendil.

I'm confirmed town at this point. Syn is most likely town due to spew.

That leaves someone among Kami, Gavial, and Mac.


We've got two chances, I like our odds here.

Reconsider this.

As much as I wanna say “It’s Syn and I was right day 1!”
I honestly just don’t see it now.

[Gavial]

Although if Mac is scum it makes sense why they would try and pull the 180 on Syn.

[Gavial]

Gavial did a total 180 on Mac during D4, from considering him clear and me scummy to considering him the most likely partner

Gavial is the last wolf and knows Deli and Creature are going over

What is his route to victory?

Marmot
Syn
Mac
Kami
Gavial

The POE difference check is between Gavial/Kami. Gavial obviously does not want this. Chopping Mac would be ideal.

Marmot
Syn
Kami
Gavial

Marmot is the NK.

Syn
Kami
Gavial

F3, where Syn (hey, that's me) has been strongly suspecting Kami and ended D4 with considering Kami to be the last partner.

Yes because at the time I thought Deli spewed Mac town.
But Kami brought up a good point it could just be scum planning.

[Gavial]

It would also make sense because it felt Creature/Deli felt pretty comfortable dying.
Also the WimI save by Esooa. Didn’t Mac and WimI have major interactions day 1?

[Marmot]

It would also make sense because it felt Creature/Deli felt pretty comfortable dying.
Also the WimI save by Esooa. Didn’t Mac and WimI have major interactions day 1?

I don't think Creature was comfortable dying. Deli most definitely, (especially looking at Creature's bussing of him), but Creature I don't think so. If Creature was comfortable with it, I assume that means that he was likely being bussed. Mac was doing everything but bussing Creature.


Also, I don't know, did they have major interactions Day 1? What does that mean?

[MacDougall]

Although if Mac is scum it makes sense why they would try and pull the 180 on Syn.

it makes zero sense actually

[MacDougall]

[VOTE: gavial] aubergine

[Syn]

mac what's your preferred chop order

I guess gavial first, but if not gavial, then who? me?

[MacDougall]

mac what's your preferred chop order

I guess gavial first, but if not gavial, then who? me?

You really want to go to another f3 syn?