Smilies Mafia - GAME END

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Game End :partyparrot:

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Jackofhearts2005
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1351

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

falcon45ca wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:25 pm
Scotty wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 5:50 pm Ill keep pondering this, but If dyson is telling truth, we’ve solved the game, because there’s no point of a wolf dyson listing those names, because it only buys him so much time before we realize he’s lying.

Confirmed Town:
-Dyson
-Scotty
-Rondo
-Ilario

Presumed town:
-jack
-Ender

POE:
-Gavial
-falcon
-TSP
It's D3 and we have 4 confirmed town? What's the criteria?
Dyson claims to have an ability that lets him target 3 players on N2 and the host confirms if all or town or nah. He targeted the other members of the “confirmed town” list and got back all were town.

Dyson isn’t confirmed town. The other 3 are confirmed town upon a Dyson townflip.
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1352

Post by EnderWiggin »

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:14 pm
Scotty wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:09 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:07 pm
Scotty wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 5:52 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 5:50 pm Literally, that’s one of the two way the power works so I don’t see how it can be a real power that Martin didn’t foresee possibly returning this result. :shrug2:
Well, the odds are actually not fantastic to return a positive except just by picking the top town names. Say dyson had picked anyone in the POE, returned negative, the ability is shit because plausible deniability in all 3 of the targets. Renders the role almost useless. Finding all 3 town is helpful for clearing.
I mean, it’s still really powerful.

Target 3 towncore = confirmed towncore or confirmed deepwolf
Target 2 towncore and 1 poe = basically a check on the poe person

The ability is only shit if you target 3 sus players and get back that they aren’t all town. Even if you do that, there’s a slim chance of getting back they’re all town, which is also really powerful.
Or that there could be a mole in the towncore. Still would risk a couple mislynches
Yeah but suppose you target like Scotty, Lime, Falcon and get there’s a wolf.

Yeet Falcon and he flips town.

Now that’s mechanical confirmation that at least one of 2 towncore members is a wolf, which is pretty good. You were gonna flip Falcon anyway.


Btw, these yeet orders that end with Ender….unless I did math wrong, we’ve got too many yeets because F3 is Jack/Ender/??? Assuming of course that there aren’t 2 wolves in Jack/Ender/???
I made them with the idea that I get yeeted at f3.
We can only trust the truth. Everything else is a lie.
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1353

Post by EnderWiggin »

Also I keep forgetting Lime. And so does Jack lmao.
We can only trust the truth. Everything else is a lie.
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1354

Post by EnderWiggin »

I'll need to re-ISO Lime later just in case they're slipping past me again.
We can only trust the truth. Everything else is a lie.
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1355

Post by EnderWiggin »

If we flip a wolf then aggressive jail tonight Rondo
We can only trust the truth. Everything else is a lie.
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1356

Post by RondoDimBuckle »

EnderWiggin wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:35 pm If we flip a wolf then aggressive jail tonight Rondo
100% who would be top choice other than you?
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1357

Post by TonyStarkPrime »

well that's interesting :P
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1358

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:00 pm
Scotty wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 5:50 pm Ill keep pondering this, but If dyson is telling truth, we’ve solved the game, because there’s no point of a wolf dyson listing those names, because it only buys him so much time before we realize he’s lying.

Confirmed Town:
-Dyson
-Scotty
-Rondo
-Ilario

Presumed town:
-jack
-Ender

POE:
-Gavial
-falcon
-TSP
Yeh. Suppose Dyson is telling the truth and no further kills are blocked.

Yeet Dyson
Wolves kill Scott
Yeet Falcon
Wolves kill Rondo
Yeet Gavial
Wolves kill Ilario

That’s final 3 of Jack/Ender/Tony (maybe not Tony).

That’s not like an impossible scenario for the wolves but it is one where the wolves have to kill a mechanically confirmed player 3 nights in a row.

For Dyson to be telling the truth, I’ve been pocketed by a wolf who specifically isn’t Ilario, Scotty or Rondo and Martin put that ability in this game. Looking at 2 of Falcon, Gavil, Tony, Ender. And Falcon is kinda antialigned with Tony and Gavil.

For Dyson to be lying, Dyson just has to be lying.
This all assumes Lime magically disappears. :blush:
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1359

Post by RondoDimBuckle »

Youve been watching for a while TSP glad youll finally join
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1360

Post by TonyStarkPrime »

i think I'm inclined to accept dyson's thing as fact, treat jack as reasonably obvious doc save, and run through the rest of the poe
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1361

Post by TonyStarkPrime »

RondoDimBuckle wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:36 pm Youve been watching for a while TSP glad youll finally join
i literally just showed opened the thread
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1362

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

EnderWiggin wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:33 pm Also I keep forgetting Lime. And so does Jack lmao.
I blame Scotty
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1363

Post by RondoDimBuckle »

ok then the guest is someone else
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1364

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

Try again!

Suppose Dyson is telling the truth and no further kills are blocked.

Yeet Dyson
Wolves kill Scotty
Yeet Falcon
Wolves kill Rondo
Yeet Gavial
Wolves kill Ilario

That’s final 4 of Jack/Ender/Lime/Tony (maybe not Tony).

Slightly worse odds but still pretty good.
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1365

Post by RondoDimBuckle »

Honestly I think I get killed tonight, unless someone can protect me which I dont think so because I was the doc.
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1366

Post by RondoDimBuckle »

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:42 pm Try again!

Suppose Dyson is telling the truth and no further kills are blocked.

Yeet Dyson
Wolves kill Scotty
Yeet Falcon
Wolves kill Rondo
Yeet Gavial
Wolves kill Ilario

That’s final 4 of Jack/Ender/Lime/Tony (maybe not Tony).

Slightly worse odds but still pretty good.
also they obviously skip at lylo 4
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1367

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:42 pm Try again!

Suppose Dyson is telling the truth and no further kills are blocked.

Yeet Dyson
Wolves kill Scotty
Yeet Falcon
Wolves kill Rondo
Yeet Gavial
Wolves kill Ilario

That’s final 4 of Jack/Ender/Lime/Tony (maybe not Tony).

Slightly worse odds but still pretty good.
And if Dyson flips wolf, this all gets thrown out but atp it’s like 8 vs 1 so it’s fine.
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1368

Post by RondoDimBuckle »

TSP Anything else to add?
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1369

Post by TonyStarkPrime »

I have class in eight minutes but I think we can eschew chopping Dyson
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1370

Post by Scotty »

Tsp/falcon team

Is my guess
When I die, I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather;
not screaming like the people in his car
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1371

Post by Scotty »

Just waiting on ilario to diglett up into the thread
When I die, I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather;
not screaming like the people in his car
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1372

Post by falcon45ca »

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:27 pm
falcon45ca wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:25 pm
Scotty wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 5:50 pm Ill keep pondering this, but If dyson is telling truth, we’ve solved the game, because there’s no point of a wolf dyson listing those names, because it only buys him so much time before we realize he’s lying.

Confirmed Town:
-Dyson
-Scotty
-Rondo
-Ilario

Presumed town:
-jack
-Ender

POE:
-Gavial
-falcon
-TSP
It's D3 and we have 4 confirmed town? What's the criteria?
Dyson claims to have an ability that lets him target 3 players on N2 and the host confirms if all or town or nah. He targeted the other members of the “confirmed town” list and got back all were town.

Dyson isn’t confirmed town. The other 3 are confirmed town upon a Dyson townflip.
Then we flip Dyson. Otherwise it's never going to be resolved
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1373

Post by Scotty »

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:38 pm
EnderWiggin wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:33 pm Also I keep forgetting Lime. And so does Jack lmao.
I blame Scotty
Well to be fair, I’ve never seen a lime coke so :ninja:
When I die, I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather;
not screaming like the people in his car
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1374

Post by Scotty »

I see the discourse for flipping dyson and it makes sense mechanically but I’m gonna hold out for now
When I die, I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather;
not screaming like the people in his car
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1375

Post by Gavial »

[VOTE: TonyStarkPrime] aubergine
@Jackofhearts2005
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1376

Post by Gavial »

I have reason to believe Falcon is town.
Vote Dyson for Alignment Confirmation or TSP.
I’m still quite busy so on times where I can’t respond that much you can expect an image as your answer (and I might just randomly post a picture here and there.)
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1377

Post by Gavial »

Scotty wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:02 pm Tsp/falcon team

Is my guess
No Falcon is Town.
I think it’s Jack and TSP.
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1378

Post by RondoDimBuckle »

Gavial wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:29 pm I have reason to believe Falcon is town.
Vote Dyson for Alignment Confirmation or TSP.
I’m still quite busy so on times where I can’t respond that much you can expect an image as your answer (and I might just randomly post a picture here and there.)
please share reason
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1379

Post by RondoDimBuckle »

I have none
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1380

Post by Scotty »

Gavial wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:30 pm
Scotty wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:02 pm Tsp/falcon team

Is my guess
No Falcon is Town.
I think it’s Jack and TSP.
Scotty wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 4:47 pm Let’s try this backwards in an exercise:

<<Give some reasons why dyson and falcon are town>>
When I die, I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather;
not screaming like the people in his car
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1381

Post by Scotty »

Ok ^that’s not quite as relevant as I wanted it to be anymore

I’m assuming you’re claiming some sort of info on falcon, Gav?
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1382

Post by Scotty »

Gavial wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:30 pm
Scotty wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:02 pm Tsp/falcon team

Is my guess
No Falcon is Town.
I think it’s Jack and TSP.
So jack was the killer then in your mind?

Hot take
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1383

Post by falcon45ca »

[VOTE: Dyson] aubergine
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1384

Post by Gavial »

Scotty wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:41 pm
Gavial wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:30 pm
Scotty wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:02 pm Tsp/falcon team

Is my guess
No Falcon is Town.
I think it’s Jack and TSP.
So jack was the killer then in your mind?

Hot take
I believe as such yes.
I can see it either way because Jack would be the correct kill to make for scum but at the same time Jack would most likely be the one killing because he’s least likely to be targeted by RB. (Although if that’s the case he didn’t consider the fact Jailkeeper can exist lol.)
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1385

Post by Gavial »

After Dyson flips. If he flips Green then chances are Scum will kill 1 of the 3 players confirmed, probably Scotty.

This leaves us with the remaining:
Myself (Which I am town)
Falcon (Town)
Ender (High probability at being Town)
Lime Coke (CW to Sean)

TSP (Went from Town to Scum for me very quickly when Nanook flipped Green)
Jack (I think he voted Sean for credit and since Sean was dead either way)
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1386

Post by Gavial »

Btw both scum had an impact during Day 1.
The only player in the game who didn’t impact at all was Falcon.
Falcon is Town.
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1387

Post by Gavial »

The reason I say that is game state.
I read via game state.
That’s how I do most of my reads
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1388

Post by RondoDimBuckle »

Gavial wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 8:00 pm After Dyson flips. If he flips Green then chances are Scum will kill 1 of the 3 players confirmed, probably Scotty.

This leaves us with the remaining:
Myself (Which I am town)
Falcon (Town)
Ender (High probability at being Town)
Lime Coke (CW to Sean)

TSP (Went from Town to Scum for me very quickly when Nanook flipped Green)
Jack (I think he voted Sean for credit and since Sean was dead either way)
cw?
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1389

Post by RondoDimBuckle »

Gavial wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 8:00 pm After Dyson flips. If he flips Green then chances are Scum will kill 1 of the 3 players confirmed, probably Scotty.

This leaves us with the remaining:
Myself (Which I am town)
Falcon (Town)
Ender (High probability at being Town)
Lime Coke (CW to Sean)

TSP (Went from Town to Scum for me very quickly when Nanook flipped Green)
Jack (I think he voted Sean for credit and since Sean was dead either way)
so you're saying Day 1 (which was between Lime and Sean as a vote) Sean picked to keep LC alive? Is it possible he has a power that was less important than seans? You are saying we had w/w trains day 1 and Jack chose the lesser of two evils?
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1390

Post by RondoDimBuckle »

if we flip lime and lime is scum he was voting Dyson day 2 that tells you if Dyson is town and then we go for jack?
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1391

Post by RondoDimBuckle »

The other option is Gav is lying
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EnderWiggin
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1392

Post by EnderWiggin »

RondoDimBuckle wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:35 pm
EnderWiggin wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:35 pm If we flip a wolf then aggressive jail tonight Rondo
100% who would be top choice other than you?
Depends on who we flip tbh.
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1393

Post by EnderWiggin »

Ask me that one when there's a settled wagon and it's near EOD
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1394

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

Gavial wrote: Tue Aug 31, 2021 8:00 pm After Dyson flips. If he flips Green then chances are Scum will kill 1 of the 3 players confirmed, probably Scotty.

This leaves us with the remaining:
Myself (Which I am town)
Falcon (Town)
Ender (High probability at being Town)
Lime Coke (CW to Sean)

TSP (Went from Town to Scum for me very quickly when Nanook flipped Green)
Jack (I think he voted Sean for credit and since Sean was dead either way)
Sean wasn’t dead anyway but sure.

Talk to me about Falcon.
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1395

Post by EnderWiggin »

Jack is probably only scum in LC!Scum world tbh.
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1396

Post by EnderWiggin »

Because then that vote was a "Save the better PR" considering I don't remember anything super impactful that Seanzie had.
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1397

Post by EnderWiggin »

It was LC/Seanzie D1 right?
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1398

Post by Jackofhearts2005 »

I mean tbf if it was me/LC/Seanzie, I totally do a buzzer shot to yeet my weaker teammate for cred.
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1399

Post by EnderWiggin »

Yep. That's why I'm saying that is the world where Jack is scum.
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Re: Smilies Mafia - Day 3

#1400

Post by EnderWiggin »

Sudden maybe it's Gav feeling shave erupted within me.
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