Fleabag Mafia mafia win

[Sloonei]

I’m pretty much here, so we can exercise. How exactly do you mean for this to work Sloonei?

No grand coordination necessary. We just all post our lists around the same time. I just wanted to do it at a time when there could be some active and immediate discussion stemming from the exercise. Explanations of reads don't need to be more than a sentence or two, though we're all free to go on as long as we want.

Trustfalls first, then distrustfalls if we are all game. And of course, anyone else who's lurking around is free to join in.

[Sloonei]

Dolby
Dyslexicon
falcon45ca
G-Man
ilario
JaggedJimmyJay
Johanna
Lime Coke
Marmot
NotAnAxehole
Sloonei
Son of Anarch
TonyStarkPrime

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Dolby
Dyslexicon
falcon45ca
G-Man
ilario
JaggedJimmyJay
Johanna
Lime Coke
Marmot
NotAnAxehole
Sloonei
Son of Anarch
TonyStarkPrime

[JaggedJimmyJay]

god damnit

[Sloonei]

sorry for the double post

[Marmot]

I'll be ready to start in a couple minutes, I assume the idea is that we each work on this and won't share our conclusions until everyone who wanted to partake is ready?

[Sloonei]

I'll be ready to start in a couple minutes, I assume the idea is that we each work on this and won't share our conclusions until everyone who wanted to partake is ready?

we can all wait to share if that is what The Group prefers.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'll indicate when I am finished with my homework assignment.

[Sloonei]

when you're done writing put your head down on your desk and wait patiently for the rest of the class.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

All done.

*rests head upon desk and grates pencil back and forth against the corner to shave off the orange skin*

[falcon45ca]

I feel like I'm in Grade 5 again.


I'm set

[falcon45ca]

All done.

*rests head upon desk and grates pencil back and forth against the corner to shave off the orange skin*

I was more of a doodler/pencil drummer myself

[Sloonei]

I am done.

*sudden realization that i need to pee, but will have to wait until the current class activity has wrapped before i can ask to be excused*

[Sloonei]

[Marmot]

2 more, almost done.

[Marmot]

K, I be finished.

[falcon45ca]

2 more, almost done.

Oh, you're THAT kid in class

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Getting bugged on the phone, need to post.

[Marmot]

Someeone else post first so I can change my answers real quick.

[Sloonei]

2 more, almost done.

Oh, you're THAT kid in class

I'm gonna pee my pants and it's all marmot's fault!

[Sloonei]

we can all hit submit now

[Sloonei]

Dolby - His entrance after missing the opening hours of the game looked very natural and comfortable. It didn't seem like dolby was putting pressure on to do anything, but he also did not feel overly conscious of his position in the game. This pattern has remained fairly consistent as the game has progressed, despite his relatively low profile.

Dyslexicon - Boundless energy and exciting. Making things happen and offering keen insight in a way that only Dizzy can.

falcon45ca - Is playing in line with his town meta, as far as I can tell. Has taken a lot of contentious stances which could put him in some hot water unnecessarily.

G-Man - He told us he would be absent at the start, and has shown sincere effort to catch himself back up despite his position.

ilario - Very enthusiastic, energetic start that had all the markings of a town player who is excited for the game. On a personal note, ilario's development towards me on Day 2 has been a very familiar pattern that I have seen from Fellow Civilians dozens of times in the past.

JaggedJimmyJay - Has offered insights and expressed thoughts which I do not think would occur if Jay was not town. Can point to examples if it is demanded of me. On a more surface level, the patented colors chart requires more work than would have been necessary for a scum jay to put in today, while subsequently not being the most overwhelming tool in his arsenal when it comes to earning townie points. He could have put his work toward something more showy, but instead he did the thing that is designed to help him best solve the game, rather than something that would make him look impressive.

Johanna - Is playing the game with apparent confidence after having missed most of Day 1. Wasted no time getting involved on Day 2. Appeared to give no thought to the existence of the watcher in her initial assessment of the Night 1 poison target.

Lime Coke - Frustration at early pressure looked like a player who was coming under early pressure for bogus reasons. Has put forth a high number of town reads, which will make his path difficult if he is mafia.

Marmot - His responses to me this phase have been reminiscent of past headbutts we've exchanged. Has been an active and willing participant in a relatively wide range of discussions.

NotAnAxehole - Difficult to find compatible teammates. Has played with a style that could easily make him vulnerable to emotionally-charged suspicions, but has weathered those storms well. Despite not often showing his work, he has made it clear that his reads are malleable.

Son of Anarch - Generally agreeable posture in the game. Has had the right energy, and does not seem to be hiding behind the challenge of adjusting to his new environment and the faster pace of this game relative to what he is useful.

TonyStarkPrime - Handling of sig on Day 1 makes sense in the light of information he revealed to us today. Claimed watcher.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Dolby - Personal analysis efforts have looked pretty decent, like a player doing his best to interact with a game that has left him behind in terms of pace

Dyslexicon - Throughout the game has played with the candor and energy that I associate with a town Dizzy. He has had reads that I think promote a pro-town mindset, and has also been willing to re-examine most of them when the state of affairs is in flux.

falcon45ca - His town meta is a relatively clear one: trust nobody. He is playing mostly to that character.

G-Man - He doesn't seem to be terribly concerned with the momentum working against him and is just playing the game the way he can play it.

ilario - He has sustained a reasonable but also believably turbulent solving process that has moved with the state of the game in a manner pretty similar to my own. I sense similar discomfort in him that I experienced myself to start this phase.

JaggedJimmyJay - He's Sloonei.

Johanna - She got a late start and didn't let that stop her from involving herself in a very thorough way. Her investigations look to be authentic, and her conclusions generally seem to make plenty of sense.

Lime Coke - He opened the game with a willing effort to call people town, and those people align closely with the people I had called town.

Marmot - His most recent efforts to solve the game bear a close resemblance to the kinds of thought processes and post structures that I have associated with a town Marmot that wants to be a part of the team effort.

NotAnAxehole - His reads have landed, after his own personal process, in a place that pretty closely reflects my own. I believe that process to be authentic, and I have seen it from him before.

Sloonei - He's JaggedJimmyJay. More seriously, I think his play has very closely matched my expectations for how a town Sloonei would interact with a game like this one, particularly in his interests to better understand those he is new to, to be more vigilant in his doubts than I tend to be, and to take a direct role in setting the game straight when it starts winding.

Son of Anarch - He's been consistent and stable without being stubborn. I generally get the impression that he has a purpose when he writes posts and discusses other players, and can conceive of town motivations underlying that purpose.

TonyStarkPrime - He claimed watcher second and has not, to this point, been countered (not even by SoA who claimed first). His treatment of me is a pretty vintage representation of the generic Tony/Jay conundrum that often comes up in our games.

~~~

Notes

These are less concrete than I would like from Day 2 trustfall rationale, but that's to be expected when Day 1 was a mischop. I wouldn't say my confidence in shaken in my six POE names (Dolby, falcon, G-Man, Johanna, Lime Coke, Son of Anarch). Among those that remain, the town read that moves me the least is probably ilario -- the fact that he mirrors me could theoretically be on purpose.

[falcon45ca]

Dolby - I tend to jump quickly on top of things that I don't like in game play, like his "haven't been able to catch up", and I'm wrong far more often than I'm right.

Dyslexicon - Has pushed the game forward and isn't afraid to engage and discuss with players.

G-Man - I can't actually think of much, other than being a low poster doesn't necessarily make one Maf

ilario - Again, could be that I'm tunneling and focusing too much on idiosyncrasies that I tend to scum read

JaggedJimmyJay - Probably has done more good for the town & thread health than I'd like to admit

Johanna - Comes across as earnestly trying to solve for town

Lime Coke - Seems in their town meta as far as I know their town meta

Marmot - Activity D2 has been of the solvey type I expect from town Marmot. He spins his tires more as Maf IMO

NotAnAxehole - Has a straightforward approach that doesn't feel agenda-y, seems direct and trying to solve rather than muddy waters.

Sloonei - See above. Different approach, but the motivation feels the same

Son of Anarch - Doesn't come across as overly wary or shy about approaching the game & giving reads.

TonyStarkPrime - Is in his town meta as far as I know and expect from it

[Marmot]

Dolby - Appears to have trouble keeping up with the thread, but he is trying. Some of his responses Day 1 looked brusque in a way that suggested that he really believed what he said.

Dyslexicon - Has brought an unrelenting optimism to this game. His impact looks like obvious town, and I don't think I've ever had a strong townread on him and been wrong.

falcon45ca - Holds a healthy skepticism of every player in the game.

G-Man - Despite having like... 4 posts? He has posted some amount of content, takes, and reads in those few posts.

ilario - I had to look at his ISO, because I had a bit of a blind TR here. Skimming it, I see a fluid change of reads throughout his gameplay, which I see as someone adapting to what the game brings to him, and thus, someone willing to solve the game.

JaggedJimmyJay - He's brimming with confidence right now and has put massive amounts of work into a solve. I agree with the solve too.

Johanna - Comfortable. Unabashed. Has engaged and prodded a number of player to help further her reads.

Lime Coke - I vibed with him for a bit on Day 1, and he seemed pretty open about his own abilities in mafia.

Marmot - hi

NotAnAxehole - Does whatever he wants, which while not always easy to work with, I believe is a often townie. He has worked to explain his reads and encourage people to listen to him. Also, he's difficult to pair with anyone.

Sloonei - Hard worker. I think I understand what he's doing today, which I support.

Son of Anarch - Light and loose. I liked his initiative in claiming watcher immediately after TSP asked someone to do so.

TonyStarkPrime - Claimed watcher. Didn't give a shit when he went about defending various players Day 1, which suggests that he's unconcerned about his image.

[Marmot]

You can go pee now Sloonei.

[Sloonei]

SoA is the name I struggled with most relative to my expectations coming in. That probably means he deserves a closer inspection.

I have the least faith in my argument for Lime Coke, though that may be a bias in favor of recent thread trends. The Falcon Meta argument also isn't all that strong.

I had an easier time coming up with arguments for Marmot than I would have expected. I actually had to cut myself off for the sake of brevity. There was more.

[Marmot]

I had the most trouble with Lime Coke and Dolby. For falcon, I'm looking back and thinking I don't know if that's a reason to trust him.

Ilario was a struggle because I didn't have anything I could point to, even though I'd come to a solid townread of him. I'd probably just outsourced that read.

[Sloonei]

I felt quite good about ilario for vague reasons coming into this. I skimmed his ISO to jog my memory, and came away feeling like the general town reads we all have there are not misguided.

[Sloonei]

dolby is one that I have been holding onto a slight townread on for substantiated reasons for a little bit, but i'm not sold on that read by any means. I didn't struggle to come up with my reason in the trustfall exercise, but that was because it was something specific which i had already established. It's not a super strong case. He's with SoA (and I'll say Johanna) in the class of players I need to develop my read on.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Thanks for doing those everyone.

@falcon45ca, how do you feel about the solve I proposed? From your perspective only one of the possible teams can be correct.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Part of me wonders if we're all too easy on Dizzy. Our town reads follow the same general pattern, and I feel the read as much as y'all seem to feel it. If we're objective though, maybe it's not the most respectful of his mafia skill.

This may be less about Dizzy's alignment and more about trustfall philosophy.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Within my solve, Dolby is the one I am least confident about. If he is not mafia, then it means my colored chart must necessarily be wrong somewhere, or otherwise I have an incorrect town read.

[falcon45ca]

Thanks for doing those everyone.

@falcon45ca, how do you feel about the solve I proposed? From your perspective only one of the possible teams can be correct.

I'm sorry, what's the solve?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If there's a fruit vendor in the POE, you should really just claim. I don't know if there's any benefit right now to that role being kept secret. If anyone has a reason to protest go ahead.

[Sloonei]

Part of me wonders if we're all too easy on Dizzy. Our town reads follow the same general pattern, and I feel the read as much as y'all seem to feel it. If we're objective though, maybe it's not the most respectful of his mafia skill.

This may be less about Dizzy's alignment and more about trustfall philosophy.

Sounds like someone's working on a distrustfall. dizzytrustfall.

I'm holding Dizzy in the "review in case of emergency" position. He's a comfortable town read, and I'm sure I could substantiate that if I dove into this posts. But if we find ourselves in a dire situation and have not found enough success, I would be forced to reconsider this position.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Thanks for doing those everyone.

@falcon45ca, how do you feel about the solve I proposed? From your perspective only one of the possible teams can be correct.

I'm sorry, what's the solve?

From this
and this

I determined the mafia team must be either:

Dolby, G-Man, Lime Coke, falcon
or
Dolby, G-Man, Lime Coke, Son of Anarch

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@Dolby
@Dyslexicon
@falcon45ca
@G-Man
@ilario
@Johanna
@Lime Coke
@Marmot
@NotAnAxehole
@Sloonei
@Son of Anarch

Are you the fruit vendor?

[Sloonei]

no fruit here.

[Marmot]

@Dolby
@Dyslexicon
@falcon45ca
@G-Man
@ilario
@Johanna
@Lime Coke
@Marmot
@NotAnAxehole
@Sloonei
@Son of Anarch

Are you the fruit vendor?

Negatron

[JaggedJimmyJay]

My vote is on Lime Coke in spirit. I don't care to blow up the wagon though. Folks ought to have a chance to talk without the day already seeming decided.

[Marmot]

If we can get a good feel on who poisoned SPF today, I don't think we should yeet them yet. We'll learn who they are tomorrow, and can yeet them then, and if we do happen to yeet them today, the info is kinda moot. We can yeet someone else today and learn more information sooner.

Currently, I think Lime Coke best fits that candidate, and if he continues to be absent, I propose we don't yeet him today, but go with a different direction.

This may not be the best strategy, but I do think there's some benefit to it. Namely, we can make a decision today that can give us a higher chance of giving us information we can do something with tomorrow.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Fair. I keep thinking Tony is going to be too dead to tell us anything on Day 3. I am forgetting poison.

I'll leave Tony to guide that motion however he sees fit. Dunno if it's Lime or not. He's voting me though.

[Marmot]

hard deadline for claiming fruit vendor is capped 12 hrs from this post. vote: jay

We've got 20 minutes.

Also, great vote explanation Tony.

[Marmot]

Actually, I don't understand the hard deadline, what's that for?

[Sloonei]

If we're going by Jay's solve of Dolby, G-Man, Lime Coke, [Falcon or SoA], then I would still imagine that G-man makes the most sense to perform the kill, but perhaps he would have been absent and therefore not allowed/able to carry it out.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If we're going by Jay's solve of Dolby, G-Man, Lime Coke, [Falcon or SoA], then I would still imagine that G-man makes the most sense to perform the kill, but perhaps he would have been absent and therefore not allowed/able to carry it out.

Do you have any immediate concerns or doubts about that solve? I don't want to get too deep up my own arse.

[Sloonei]

If we're going by Jay's solve of Dolby, G-Man, Lime Coke, [Falcon or SoA], then I would still imagine that G-man makes the most sense to perform the kill, but perhaps he would have been absent and therefore not allowed/able to carry it out.

Do you have any immediate concerns or doubts about that solve? I don't want to get too deep up my own arse.

All five of those names are perfectly good suspects on their own and I trust the process you used to get there, but I am certainly not about to charge ahead under the assumption that the game is over and we've already won.

I was just trying to make an argument for the sake of the discussion about saving the potential N1 poisoner for later.

[Sloonei]

As always, my goal for today is to vote for the player I believe is most likely to flip mafia.

[Marmot]

There is a possibility that mafia teammates may attempt to or have attempted to bus today whoever carried out the poison Night 1. On a similar vein to my previous thought about dodging the poisoner with today's yeet, it is likely in mafia's best interest to yeet that person today since that player is a sitting duck.

Now that I'm typing this thought out, I don't feel as strongly about it being an optimal mafia strategy. But it's still something we should look closely at once we learn who did it.