Re: ɒiʇɒM: Mafia Wins

[NotAnAxehole]

Sabie dying probably clears some low posters right? Like doon and ruri can't be together right?

Not necessarily.
It all depends what was discussed and why Sabie was chosen.
Maybe they felt it wouldn’t have as much impact if they went off instead?

I don’t rule anything out Tbh.

This sounds a lot like he's telling me to stop poking around in the right places

[Gavial]

C’mon someone join me on Marmot!

I feel Lonely being the only one that’s voting here.

[NotAnAxehole]

I'm just saying, if the wolves are dobly and doo then why kill the towniest player on the team?

[NotAnAxehole]

C’mon someone join me on Marmot!

I feel Lonely being the only one that’s voting here.

Marmot has been your default vote all game, that's Wolfy... @Luckbox Inc you're a low poster, tell me what you think of my low poster theory.

[Gavial]

Sabie dying probably clears some low posters right? Like doon and ruri can't be together right?

Not necessarily.
It all depends what was discussed and why Sabie was chosen.
Maybe they felt it wouldn’t have as much impact if they went off instead?

I don’t rule anything out Tbh.

This sounds a lot like he's telling me to stop poking around in the right places

Not sure why your talking in 3rd person but if we just assume this clears them what if that’s what they were hoping for?
Like maybe they are more confident to win a F3 with a play like that?

Again don’t rule anything out.
If you have something to say to me say it and share it with the rest of us.

[NotAnAxehole]

@DrWilgy @Marmot @ignoramus

Is it fair to say that there is max 1 wolf in:

Luckbox, Dobby, Doo & ruri

I think that almost has to be true based on Sabie flip.

[NotAnAxehole]

Sabie dying probably clears some low posters right? Like doon and ruri can't be together right?

Not necessarily.
It all depends what was discussed and why Sabie was chosen.
Maybe they felt it wouldn’t have as much impact if they went off instead?

I don’t rule anything out Tbh.

This sounds a lot like he's telling me to stop poking around in the right places

Not sure why your talking in 3rd person but if we just assume this clears them what if that’s what they were hoping for?
Like maybe they are more confident to win a F3 with a play like that?

Again don’t rule anything out.
If you have something to say to me say it and share it with the rest of us.

Obvious answer, I wasn't talking to you.

[Gavial]

@DrWilgy @Marmot @ignoramus

Is it fair to say that there is max 1 wolf in:

Luckbox, Dobby, Doo & ruri

I think that almost has to be true based on Sabie flip.

Why do you think this?

[Gavial]

Ok time to compile gut reads. Take these with a grain of salt after I die because I’m much better at analysis after a scum reveal.

Marmot is hiding in his bidet hole but probably town. Marmot has only gone after me, hasn’t made any real pushes for other people afaik. Looked in his iso and this stands out:

Am I doing this right?

Real talk, m8s

I like sloon’s suggestion of keeping a strong town voice or two, but might it also be a good move to try and kill obvious town when we see it?

Mafia still has to kill at night, and they might as well kill the towniest like usual, decreasing our odds of finding towniest. So each day will start anew finding our towniest voices. Is that a viable strategy? Hmm

Luckbox is my current towniest read. Cant place why

Hot take: This is wolf Sloonei's attempt to slot himself as the "Obvious town leader to murder in F5" given how he is generally viewed/read in mafia games.

as an awkward post to make if his team is just gonna kill sloonei N1. He asks questions, and has been involved.

I’m with gavial. Probably town.

And then there’s gavial. He’s had a command of the game since he entered to an extent. Came in dumbtelling, has grounded himself to logical reasoning. Not as bouncy and frenetic as I seem to remember last time we played together, but that was a no-post-limit game so maybe that has something to do with it.
Tend to agree with a lot of what he’s saying. Probably town.

NAA I’ve say my both ways recently as I’ve done a more thorough iso. If there’s a deep wolf, it could be him.

Wilgy is probably town for reasons I stated at the beginning of the day

Ignoramus has some posts entering today that are very green. More importantly, the post where he starts casing tess after tess had already died? Suuuuper dumbtell that I don’t think he fakes here. I’d almost call ignoramus as supatown for that.


Then things get muddy


Dolby: for some reason I had some good pings, but looking back through the iso, I don’t remember why.

Scotty doesn't have a good SoD2

Gav and NAA town

endorse NAA's 337

Wilgy a wolf but not with Scotty

Tess is w/e

I don't remember a singular TSP post

Marmot can be good

I have 0 WIM this game

this post inspires no confidence. BUT at least he has provided actual reads, even if there is no substance behind them.

luckbox I viewed as having a good D1, but upon inspection, none of his posts have been pointed in any direction. This could be just how he wants to play- wishy washy and giving nothing away- but it’s doing town no favors if he is town.

Doom: has calculus exams to study for.

I definitely find Ruri sketch

Since I'm finally on break, I took some time to read and I have town something like Sabie Gavial Wigly (that other guy as well)

I'd probably kill something like Ruri or TSP

these are posts from someone who forgot what game we’re playing but I’m not certain this dumbtell is alignment indicative. Please post more

Ruri: Has parroted prevailing strategies but everything is surface level. Self-professed ‘always sketch’. Absolute nightmare fuel if left in an f3. Either Ruri has to post more reads and content, or we’re gonna have to lynch them at some point before endgame. Please for the love of god.


In conclusion:
Confident town:
-wilgy
-ignoramus
-marmot
-gavial

Could be deepwolf:
-NAA
-wilgy* if his plan is to be the n3 NK

Not giving enough to be a townread:
-Dolby
-Doom

Giving enough to be too blendy and need to see more of before I would ever consent to lynching, and my current mafia list:
-luckbox
-sabie
-Ruri

Scotty had the team as Sabie, Luckbox and Ruri so it can easily be that.

[Gavial]

But again, anything’s possible.

I think you trying to rule all this out is suspicious IMO.
But I also think it’s best you go down tomorrow after marmot goes down today.

[NotAnAxehole]

Ok time to compile gut reads. Take these with a grain of salt after I die because I’m much better at analysis after a scum reveal.

Marmot is hiding in his bidet hole but probably town. Marmot has only gone after me, hasn’t made any real pushes for other people afaik. Looked in his iso and this stands out:

Am I doing this right?

Real talk, m8s

I like sloon’s suggestion of keeping a strong town voice or two, but might it also be a good move to try and kill obvious town when we see it?

Mafia still has to kill at night, and they might as well kill the towniest like usual, decreasing our odds of finding towniest. So each day will start anew finding our towniest voices. Is that a viable strategy? Hmm

Luckbox is my current towniest read. Cant place why

Hot take: This is wolf Sloonei's attempt to slot himself as the "Obvious town leader to murder in F5" given how he is generally viewed/read in mafia games.

as an awkward post to make if his team is just gonna kill sloonei N1. He asks questions, and has been involved.

I’m with gavial. Probably town.

And then there’s gavial. He’s had a command of the game since he entered to an extent. Came in dumbtelling, has grounded himself to logical reasoning. Not as bouncy and frenetic as I seem to remember last time we played together, but that was a no-post-limit game so maybe that has something to do with it.
Tend to agree with a lot of what he’s saying. Probably town.

NAA I’ve say my both ways recently as I’ve done a more thorough iso. If there’s a deep wolf, it could be him.

Wilgy is probably town for reasons I stated at the beginning of the day

Ignoramus has some posts entering today that are very green. More importantly, the post where he starts casing tess after tess had already died? Suuuuper dumbtell that I don’t think he fakes here. I’d almost call ignoramus as supatown for that.


Then things get muddy


Dolby: for some reason I had some good pings, but looking back through the iso, I don’t remember why.

Scotty doesn't have a good SoD2

Gav and NAA town

endorse NAA's 337

Wilgy a wolf but not with Scotty

Tess is w/e

I don't remember a singular TSP post

Marmot can be good

I have 0 WIM this game

this post inspires no confidence. BUT at least he has provided actual reads, even if there is no substance behind them.

luckbox I viewed as having a good D1, but upon inspection, none of his posts have been pointed in any direction. This could be just how he wants to play- wishy washy and giving nothing away- but it’s doing town no favors if he is town.

Doom: has calculus exams to study for.

I definitely find Ruri sketch

Since I'm finally on break, I took some time to read and I have town something like Sabie Gavial Wigly (that other guy as well)

I'd probably kill something like Ruri or TSP

these are posts from someone who forgot what game we’re playing but I’m not certain this dumbtell is alignment indicative. Please post more

Ruri: Has parroted prevailing strategies but everything is surface level. Self-professed ‘always sketch’. Absolute nightmare fuel if left in an f3. Either Ruri has to post more reads and content, or we’re gonna have to lynch them at some point before endgame. Please for the love of god.


In conclusion:
Confident town:
-wilgy
-ignoramus
-marmot
-gavial

Could be deepwolf:
-NAA
-wilgy* if his plan is to be the n3 NK

Not giving enough to be a townread:
-Dolby
-Doom

Giving enough to be too blendy and need to see more of before I would ever consent to lynching, and my current mafia list:
-luckbox
-sabie
-Ruri

Scotty had the team as Sabie, Luckbox and Ruri so it can easily be that.

Tell me more about how you decided your night kill

[Gavial]

Then again though if your wolf why would you want to say there is 1 wolf within the same PoE Sabie was in?

[Gavial]

lol I take it you Scum read me NAA?

[NotAnAxehole]

I mean, killing someone who me and Marmot town read is just not something you do if we're both town, unless you think we're also wrong somewhere else. Logically, it's impossible that the entire mafia team was less town read / less involved in the game than Sabie.

The very fact that Gavial is arguing this point makes him lock scum in my mind.

[NotAnAxehole]

I didn't actually read yesterday because I thought I was going to be an auto-yeet today due to mod wording on the night post ...

I'll catch up, but Gavial is for sure mafia. I've played with him on mafia451 a bit and I'm confident I can read him.

[Gavial]

I mean, killing someone who me and Marmot town read is just not something you do if we're both town, unless you think we're also wrong somewhere else. Logically, it's impossible that the entire mafia team was less town read / less involved in the game than Sabie.

The very fact that Gavial is arguing this point makes him lock scum in my mind.

Wait that doesn’t quite make sense do you just mean you also TR Marmot?
A read is also NAI.

I ain’t scum bro. I love the fact your just ruling everyone out when you give no valid reason to.

Also you left out Wigly I believe.

Seems to me like your trying to scum paint me randomly.
Is it because your scum and I scare you?
Is it because your scum and think you can beat me?
Is it because your town and jumping to conclusions too fast?
Is it because your town and not looking at everything clearly?

Either way your going over tomorrow regardless.

[NotAnAxehole]

I mean, killing someone who me and Marmot town read is just not something you do if we're both town, unless you think we're also wrong somewhere else. Logically, it's impossible that the entire mafia team was less town read / less involved in the game than Sabie.

The very fact that Gavial is arguing this point makes him lock scum in my mind.

Wait that doesn’t quite make sense do you just mean you also TR Marmot?

I'll let you figure this one out, you're looking at it from a mafia perspective, try to think from my perspective.

[NotAnAxehole]

Also, anyone else notice that Gavial is trying to insinuate that

A) I'm mafia
B) I should be killed during the day!
C) Doesn't want to take a firm stance on me

[NotAnAxehole]

He also can't digest basic towny perspectives. I suggest we PoE him, and try to kill his partner in the next 2 days.

[Gavial]

I mean, killing someone who me and Marmot town read is just not something you do if we're both town, unless you think we're also wrong somewhere else. Logically, it's impossible that the entire mafia team was less town read / less involved in the game than Sabie.

The very fact that Gavial is arguing this point makes him lock scum in my mind.

Wait that doesn’t quite make sense do you just mean you also TR Marmot?

I'll let you figure this one out, you're looking at it from a mafia perspective, try to think from my perspective.

Town can’t kill anyone lol.
That’s what mafia does.

[Gavial]

Also, anyone else notice that Gavial is trying to insinuate that

A) I'm mafia
B) I should be killed during the day!
C) Doesn't want to take a firm stance on me

When did I call you straight out Mafia?
I said how you could be mafia trying to scum paint me or Town that’s jumping too much and not thinking logically.
Like your basically saying to me: “Your the only one that can be scum with Sabie!”
Which is logically incorrect.
Not sure why your reaching this conclusion either.
I think you should be exiled right after Marmot as it helps narrow down the scum team.
If by “Firm Stance” you mean a solid read of Town or Mafia then why TF did you put “A) I’m Mafia” if you didn’t think I was making a “Firm Stance”.

[Gavial]

He also can't digest basic towny perspectives. I suggest we PoE him, and try to kill his partner in the next 2 days.

WTF is this?!?

PoE me? If that’s how people feel I won’t decline it but why do you want me there so badly? Lol.

Why would you want to kill my partner in the next 2 days?
If you thought I was really mafia you should have said “On Day 5 I hope to remove your partner so you can’t Night kill yourself or them!” Something like that.

What your saying here doesn’t feel pure.
If your Mafia your Scum painting me and doing a terrible job at iy.
If your Town I don’t even think you believe your read on me at all or it’s some gut read that you clearly don’t want to explain.

[Marmot]

So 9 of us left alive.
I’m thinking probably like Marmot (-) NAA then if both are Town , scum flips during the night and after that we can look through both scum and look through their vote placement and hunt for associations and whatnot.

So let’s do math.
Marmot exiled flips Town (8).
Town gets killed at night (7)
NAA exiled flips Town (6)
Mafia dies at Night (5)

Leaving us with 5 remaining that gives us 2 try’s to get it right.
For example let’s say I am the Town that died night 4 and the remaining players are as followed: Dolby, Luck, DOOM, Wigly and Ignor with Ruri the one that flipped Mafia.

So we need to look into Ruri and Sabie. Look at vote placement and look at associations. Determine whom is most likely to have been aligned with them or even better find out who could never be aligned with them and vote for them.

Technically all you need to do is figure out who Town is so I suppose you could do the opposite and instead of figuring out who could be aligned figure out who can’t be aligned.

Why are you so confident that I'm town?

[Gavial]

Instead of calling me scum and saying how you want to vote my partner how about you figure out who Town is today, vote for them and then find my “soul called partner” Tomorrow.

[Marmot]

Extremely ??? take tiem but what if Marmot/Sabie/Ruri team?
Like
If I read Marmot's ISO alone he's Townie
But one thing I noticed Sabie did quite often was to ask Ruri questions
Probably to give her chances to post more often and therefore get more chances to get town-read and get got
And while Marmot did not do this half as often as Sabie did, he did do it for quite a bit and unless I missed some things I don't think he followed up on it
Which feels like w/w to me

Proof:

So Scotty and NAA are apparently the most obvtown there is here. Who are the lurkers?

What do you make of 'em?

I still think it would be best to sort out the lurkers. As this is a jestery game, those who play suboptimally are likely going to be left alone so as to up the chances of wolves winning.

Any lurkers in particular? You do kinda fall under that category looking purely at post count.

My original statement was to get rid of the slankers and leave obvtown alive to eat the bullet. Get enough of obvtown, and the game should be easy. Wolves are already killing off the obvtown.

I know I'm one of the lurkers, since this is how I usually play. Maybe a bit less due to IRL, but I'd like to know if there's other lurkers.

Finding and voting off a strong wolf could prevent them from offing one of the lurker wolves to win the game. Not sure who those strong wolves are though.

I have had a similar problem as this game came at a weird time for me and I haven't been able to be around as much as I wanted which I guess puts me in the lurker category.

So are you saying you think we should vote out a lurker or someone you think is a "strong wolf"? Do you think we should be voting somewhere different?

So while I am still worried it's an extremely silly and wrong idea, I think there's a small chance this is real
Can someone like. Fact check me or something

Yeah, I was trying to get Ruri to engage at all in the game discussion, which I didn't feel they were doing.

I couldn't make it back before the deadline, so I never had a chance to follow up on it (those posts from me came like an hour before deadline you'll notice).

[Gavial]

So 9 of us left alive.
I’m thinking probably like Marmot (-) NAA then if both are Town , scum flips during the night and after that we can look through both scum and look through their vote placement and hunt for associations and whatnot.

So let’s do math.
Marmot exiled flips Town (8).
Town gets killed at night (7)
NAA exiled flips Town (6)
Mafia dies at Night (5)

Leaving us with 5 remaining that gives us 2 try’s to get it right.
For example let’s say I am the Town that died night 4 and the remaining players are as followed: Dolby, Luck, DOOM, Wigly and Ignor with Ruri the one that flipped Mafia.

So we need to look into Ruri and Sabie. Look at vote placement and look at associations. Determine whom is most likely to have been aligned with them or even better find out who could never be aligned with them and vote for them.

Technically all you need to do is figure out who Town is so I suppose you could do the opposite and instead of figuring out who could be aligned figure out who can’t be aligned.

Why are you so confident that I'm town?

Basically your SoD was real good.
When you walked into thread after I replaced in you kept the same overall vibe which I felt is a very good look for you.
None of your posts came off forced or jumpy.
I’m not fantastic in meta reading you but I’m pretty confident your Town here.
Gtg back to work now! Cya next break!

[Marmot]

@Marmot do you prefer a scum hunting Strat, or killing town Strat?

We should kill a townie today imo. If we kill scum today, we give the mafia team an extra chance at victory.

Also remember, town's wincon is to eliminate townies. We should always try to do that, with the possible exceptions of Days 3 and 5, given that scum can't NK their own if we yeet them on those days.

[Marmot]

So 9 of us left alive.
I’m thinking probably like Marmot (-) NAA then if both are Town , scum flips during the night and after that we can look through both scum and look through their vote placement and hunt for associations and whatnot.

So let’s do math.
Marmot exiled flips Town (8).
Town gets killed at night (7)
NAA exiled flips Town (6)
Mafia dies at Night (5)

Leaving us with 5 remaining that gives us 2 try’s to get it right.
For example let’s say I am the Town that died night 4 and the remaining players are as followed: Dolby, Luck, DOOM, Wigly and Ignor with Ruri the one that flipped Mafia.

So we need to look into Ruri and Sabie. Look at vote placement and look at associations. Determine whom is most likely to have been aligned with them or even better find out who could never be aligned with them and vote for them.

Technically all you need to do is figure out who Town is so I suppose you could do the opposite and instead of figuring out who could be aligned figure out who can’t be aligned.

Why are you so confident that I'm town?

Basically your SoD was real good.
When you walked into thread after I replaced in you kept the same overall vibe which I felt is a very good look for you.
None of your posts came off forced or jumpy.
I’m not fantastic in meta reading you but I’m pretty confident your Town here.
Gtg back to work now! Cya next break!

The only game you've ever scumread me was in Skyrim, and it was only because the host accidentally gave you a red-check on me.

But I do think I've been town in every other game we've played together, so you haven't been wrong.

[Marmot]

@DrWilgy @Marmot @ignoramus

Is it fair to say that there is max 1 wolf in:

Luckbox, Dobby, Doo & ruri

I think that almost has to be true based on Sabie flip.

I think it's reasonable to think that there is a wolf that is "townier" than sabie if she was the one who was NK'd yeah.

[DrWilgy]

@DrWilgy @Marmot @ignoramus

Is it fair to say that there is max 1 wolf in:

Luckbox, Dobby, Doo & ruri

I think that almost has to be true based on Sabie flip.

I think it's reasonable to think that there is a wolf that is "townier" than sabie if she was the one who was NK'd yeah.

I agree with this.

[Marmot]

I mean, killing someone who me and Marmot town read is just not something you do if we're both town, unless you think we're also wrong somewhere else. Logically, it's impossible that the entire mafia team was less town read / less involved in the game than Sabie.

The very fact that Gavial is arguing this point makes him lock scum in my mind.

It's something you do if you don't think you can get yourself yeeted in F5 or F3. It's possible that sabie (and her team) didn't think she was as capable as someone else on her team. I don't think that's a stretch at all.

Especially if you and I are the towniest players in the thread and dying soon, we wouldn't even be around to endorse sabie's chop.

[Marmot]

The Doctor is in.

[DrWilgy]

Apologies for my absence. I've been in and out of town this weekend.

Scotty flipping town shifts my perspective abit.

I'm more inclined to not trust NAA as much.

The Sabie flip makes me feel something off on Luckbox. A Scum Luckbox scares me here.

[Marmot]

I'm having trouble following NAA's argument, but I also think Gavial's response doesn't jive. On one hand, he TR's NAA and wants to kill him tomorrow. On the other hand, he's establishing a thunderdome with him, which is an odd strategy to do as a townie.

[Marmot]

I still like the idea of yeeting Dolby. Low content, but the dude seems very focused on a townie agenda.

@Gavial what do you think of yeeting NAA today?

[Marmot]

(Those are two completely separate thioughts that just happened to exist in the same post)

[Marmot]

Apologies for my absence. I've been in and out of town this weekend.

Scotty flipping town shifts my perspective abit.

I'm more inclined to not trust NAA as much.

The Sabie flip makes me feel something off on Luckbox. A Scum Luckbox scares me here.

Apology accepted.

Why does a Scumbox scare you?

[DrWilgy]

Hard to explain, but the mafia's Sabie kill would heavily imply that they aren't concerned about their low posters if they exist.

That type of implication would benefit Luckbox but also match the nonchalant feel I get from them.

[NotAnAxehole]

Hard to explain, but the mafia's Sabie kill would heavily imply that they aren't concerned about their low posters if they exist.

That type of implication would benefit Luckbox but also match the nonchalant feel I get from them.

I mean, you don't know me, but if I'm mafia with Sabie I never ever kill her in the night. She came in wanting to play, it's her first game back in a while, and I think she's generally more fun to play with than most people in this game. No offense Dr.

[NotAnAxehole]

Hard to explain, but the mafia's Sabie kill would heavily imply that they aren't concerned about their low posters if they exist.

That type of implication would benefit Luckbox but also match the nonchalant feel I get from them.

I mean, you don't know me, but if I'm mafia with Sabie I never ever kill her in the night. She came in wanting to play, it's her first game back in a while, and I think she's generally more fun to play with than most people in this game. No offense Dr.

Eh, I guess that's wifom because she could have wanted out for all I know.

[NotAnAxehole]

Hard to explain, but the mafia's Sabie kill would heavily imply that they aren't concerned about their low posters if they exist.

That type of implication would benefit Luckbox but also match the nonchalant feel I get from them.

I mean, you don't know me, but if I'm mafia with Sabie I never ever kill her in the night. She came in wanting to play, it's her first game back in a while, and I think she's generally more fun to play with than most people in this game. No offense Dr.

Eh, I guess that's wifom because she could have wanted out for all I know.

Oh my god... I said WIFOM ._. kill me. The least productive / most counterproductive word in all of mafia.

[NotAnAxehole]

DrWigly, give me a read on Gavial, otherwise I'm going to assume you're just randomly protecting him based on bad reads err bad vibes err PARTNERS!

[Marmot]

Sabie kill points to Marmot-NAA scum team because they're too townie for it to be any other way.

GG me, I solve dit

[NotAnAxehole]

I'm having trouble following NAA's argument, but I also think Gavial's response doesn't jive. On one hand, he TR's NAA and wants to kill him tomorrow. On the other hand, he's establishing a thunderdome with him, which is an odd strategy to do as a townie.

This is why I don't explain reads.

AND

YES

[NotAnAxehole]

Sabie kill points to Marmot-NAA scum team because they're too townie for it to be any other way.

GG me, I solve dit

I would have killed you, but I thought the same thing LOL

[Luckbox Inc]

I'm here. Can be posting today. Need to catch up on a ton in this game.

[NotAnAxehole]

I'm here. Can be posting today. Need to catch up on a ton in this game.

b a d v i b e s

[Luckbox Inc]

Apologies for my absence. I've been in and out of town this weekend.

Scotty flipping town shifts my perspective abit.

I'm more inclined to not trust NAA as much.

The Sabie flip makes me feel something off on Luckbox. A Scum Luckbox scares me here.

Easiest thing would be to kill me today. Surely there is a day where it doesn't matter who gets killed. I should die on that day.

[Luckbox Inc]

I'm here. Can be posting today. Need to catch up on a ton in this game.

b a d v i b e s

I haven't even opened this thread in like 36 hours.

[NotAnAxehole]

I'm here. Can be posting today. Need to catch up on a ton in this game.

b a d v i b e s

I haven't even opened this thread in like 36 hours.

Sorry, I'm running my best DrWigly impression