Team Fortress Mafia [END]

[Marmot]

[VOTE: LinearPoint] aubergine

[TonyStarkPrime]

Falcon was present during EoD1 and stayed off of both major wagons

I want to know why

My current thought is falcon/LP as the final two, but I'd like to talk about LP more with other people given they've taken 0 heat thus far.

I think towny and I've appreciated not taking the mech burden

[TonyStarkPrime]

Falcon was present during EoD1 and stayed off of both major wagons

I want to know why

My current thought is falcon/LP as the final two, but I'd like to talk about LP more with other people given they've taken 0 heat thus far.

you can case them if you want but they are my strongest townread that isn't mech influenced by far

I'll do due diligence in reading their ISO tomorrow but... yeah I'm not expecting much to change. Maybe I'll find they were protecting Nanook/got on sabie in a weird way, idk. Probably the biggest thing that makes me think that the Sabie wagon was pure though was TSP being the last to get, who I'm still assuming town derped as vig. Which means that LP and other Sabie voters as mafia sat around and let nanook expose himself for no productive reason

nanook showed up out of nowhere and switched after I did, might have been a necessity thing and nanook just yoloed

[Marmot]

Maybe it's not LP.

I had some concern about their Day 4 approach, in which they kinda through a lot of names out for a POE. Larger pool of players then I'd like. Including myself.

But I reread their handling of nanook and sabie on Days 1-2 and I feel better again.


[VOTE: falcon] aubergine

[Dolby]

I think I'm at

Good mech
Lime Coke
TSP
Marmot

I like
LinearPoint
Guillo
Mac
NAA

Rest
Sig
Martin
Falcon
Wilgy

[Marmot]

TSP, does your snipe take two night actions to activate? Or could you "scope" another person last night to kill tonight?

[Dolby]

I'm basically at Falcon/Wilgy being the likeliest pair

Honestly the best thing that I can say for Wilgy is that there is a world where I did block Nanook carrying the kill and he didn't redirect me off of him but I don't think I stopped the kill anyway

[Marmot]

TSP, does your snipe take two night actions to activate? Or could you "scope" another person last night to kill tonight?

Last night being the same night that you killed someone else.

[Dolby]

was Gav a spy shot? or a sniper shot?

[Marmot]

I'm basically at Falcon/Wilgy being the likeliest pair

Honestly the best thing that I can say for Wilgy is that there is a world where I did block Nanook carrying the kill and he didn't redirect me off of him but I don't think I stopped the kill anyway

I'm down with yeeting this pair, and changing course if either is a miss.

[Marmot]

was Gav a spy shot? or a sniper shot?

TSP claimed the kill.

[Dolby]

I wish that we were given full vote totals accounting for changes in vote power. Idk if any have happened would be useful to see who is doing what

[Marmot]

Those sorts of things tend to be hidden on this site.

[Dolby]

TSP did you think that Gav and Nanook could be w/w?

[Marmot]

Last time I played a DDL game, he said the thing in my sig after the game lol

[Dolby]

This is probably a bad read but I think that NAA's habit of switching his vote when a new wagon pops up is marginally towny

[Dolby]

But the problem is if TSP lies about his target N1. He gets outed if Sabie is not lynched D2.

no he doesn't...

"I shot at sabie but it didn't go through... must have been roleblocked or sabie saved".

I do agree firmly that TSP's EoD3 wasn't great, but sniper aimming isn't seen as a visit and I don't think that he would know that it was safe to fakeclaim an aim on Sabie as a mafia sniper

[Marmot]

This is probably a bad read but I think that NAA's habit of switching his vote when a new wagon pops up is marginally towny

I believe he's just sheeping my vote

[Dolby]

Honestly NAA willingly not viging anyone seems really out of character and also probably not Mafia.

this yeah

[LinearPoint]

I think I might go back to my original idea at the start of day 2 where the Mafia might have both Engies and double build dispensers to try and win early game with voting power.
Martin was also pretty quick to say he was clear by the fact the Mafia had 1 Engineer and just slide by.

The only thing I don't quite get is why nobody has requested access to Red Base even with it having a heal which would mean Mafia doesn't have another red member or someone is just lying about not entering the base for Martin to be Mafia.

[LinearPoint]

Mechanically speaking we know Wiggly and Mac did not preform the factional kill last night.
Wiggly was roleblocked and I redirected Mac which the Mafia having killed Jack seems intentional and not redirected.

[NotAnAxehole]

Honestly NAA willingly not viging anyone seems really out of character and also probably not Mafia.

this yeah

We need to be careful with information like this, because while I know it to be true, for all you knows I could be lying.

N1 - I was role blocked - this is confirmed
N2 - I claimed I forgot
N3 - I claimed I forgot

Technically I could have shot at someone N3. So yeah, it's favorable for my alignment, but it's not reliable mech info.

[TonyStarkPrime]

TSP did you think that Gav and Nanook could be w/w?

yeah I still thought Gav was likely a wolf, wouldn't have been my first choice after flip, but also like due to mechanics I was shooting Gavial and there was nothing I could do about it. (And i might have sniped Gav anyways because he's anti-town and we can't keep putting two votes on him every day to keep him from shooting me or marmot)

[LinearPoint]

Honestly I'm thinking LC is just Mafia.
My theory is that Nanook investigated Jack N1 and got that he was a Town Watcher.
LC then roleblocks him to prevent him from getting information and self confirming.
LC also immediately pushed Jack without even considering someone else could have preformed the kill. Jack would have no way to defend himself since he was roleblocked.
Only issue for the Mafia is Jack basically got antispewed by Nanook.

[TonyStarkPrime]

I think I might go back to my original idea at the start of day 2 where the Mafia might have both Engies and double build dispensers to try and win early game with voting power.
Martin was also pretty quick to say he was clear by the fact the Mafia had 1 Engineer and just slide by.

The only thing I don't quite get is why nobody has requested access to Red Base even with it having a heal which would mean Mafia doesn't have another red member or someone is just lying about not entering the base for Martin to be Mafia.

mafia member enters base and martin says "ok nobody came in"?

[TonyStarkPrime]

TSP, does your snipe take two night actions to activate? Or could you "scope" another person last night to kill tonight?

Last night being the same night that you killed someone else.

I could not scope another person last night without like also throwing off my shot on gav

[LinearPoint]

I think I might go back to my original idea at the start of day 2 where the Mafia might have both Engies and double build dispensers to try and win early game with voting power.
Martin was also pretty quick to say he was clear by the fact the Mafia had 1 Engineer and just slide by.

The only thing I don't quite get is why nobody has requested access to Red Base even with it having a heal which would mean Mafia doesn't have another red member or someone is just lying about not entering the base for Martin to be Mafia.

mafia member enters base and martin says "ok nobody came in"?

Well we can't confirm who enters Martin's base unless 2 Red players ask to go inside.
If only 1 player (theoretically Mafia) asks he can just say no one came in.

[Dolby]

Honestly I'm thinking LC is just Mafia.
My theory is that Nanook investigated Jack N1 and got that he was a Town Watcher.
LC then roleblocks him to prevent him from getting information and self confirming.
LC also immediately pushed Jack without even considering someone else could have preformed the kill. Jack would have no way to defend himself since he was roleblocked.
Only issue for the Mafia is Jack basically got antispewed by Nanook.

watcher is only the 3rd scariest town role for scum imo, and I kinda don't think that they'd reasonably expect town to buy "they must have been carrying the mafia kill " in a setup with 2 roleblockers, 2 doctors, and 2 heavies that can heal themselves

though we did admitidly get closish to that happening

anyway

[VOTE: Wilgy] aubergine

yes he didn't carry the kill but if he hasn't voted a scum he can die tbh

[LinearPoint]

Honestly NAA willingly not viging anyone seems really out of character and also probably not Mafia.

this yeah

We need to be careful with information like this, because while I know it to be true, for all you knows I could be lying.

N1 - I was role blocked - this is confirmed
N2 - I claimed I forgot
N3 - I claimed I forgot

Technically I could have shot at someone N3. So yeah, it's favorable for my alignment, but it's not reliable mech info.

The fact your only action is to vig someone or to not vig someoen is quite telling you haven't vigged anyone.

[Dolby]

I think I might go back to my original idea at the start of day 2 where the Mafia might have both Engies and double build dispensers to try and win early game with voting power.
Martin was also pretty quick to say he was clear by the fact the Mafia had 1 Engineer and just slide by.

The only thing I don't quite get is why nobody has requested access to Red Base even with it having a heal which would mean Mafia doesn't have another red member or someone is just lying about not entering the base for Martin to be Mafia.

mafia member enters base and martin says "ok nobody came in"?

I don't think that mafia roleblocking theselves for one voting power is anywhere near likely at this stage

particularly when the best ratio mafia had was 12v4

[Marmot]

vig me naa

[Dolby]

I think I'm at

Good mech
Lime Coke
TSP
Marmot

I like
LinearPoint
Guillo
Mac
NAA

Rest
Sig
Martin
Falcon
Wilgy

I'll re-ev my townleans on this day for posterity but I do think they're just good

Lime, idk I just wrote him off as town yday

Hot take of mine is that Marmot being on the Gav wagon spews him town because Gav having votes from three mafia (Marmot, Sabie, Nanook) would be super lol and I don't beleive that's the world

I will admit to being more concerned about TSP now

LP has been the obvious town of the game

Guillo had a really towny D1

Mac and NAA it's just these slots are probably town for varying reasons

Think it's most essential for me to reread D1 and start of day 3

[Dolby]

It would be way to lol if I was the only town not voting for scum and all mafia were on Gav's wagon tbh

should probably look for a non-Falcon name but I see nothing towny in Wilgy rn

[LinearPoint]

While falcon was not on either Sabie wagon, they did try and push Nanook for D2 lynch.
It was just vanity and could be just them knowing hat it would never go through, but is worth noting I think.

Sig on the other hand wasn't on Sabie's D1 wagon and sheeped Sabie and Nanook lynch without much input from what I've seen.
Sig said D1 that Nanook was a 50/50 unable to be read.

And here are the quotes Sig had on to why they voted Nanook.

Spoiler: show

My biggest issue with the nanook saving sabie thing is it seems so far off what I remember his mafia meta to be? I do think It"s been awhile since we played though.

voting Nanook can't resist tying things up

voting Nanook can't resist tying things up

[VOTE: Nanook] aubergine

I do plan to reread them and jack and maybe eod sabie. Since i'm not really seeing the scum vibes or remember this re meta. But, for the time being i'm very comfortable tying things up to see what non committed people do.

Pretty much them saying they don't really scum read Nanook, but was just getting on the wagon to get on the wagon.

I feel like Sig > Falcon for Mafia tbh.

[LinearPoint]

I'll probably do a deeper dive on Falcon just to thoroughly compare them, but currently I see Sig as more likely Mafia of the two.

[TonyStarkPrime]

I think I might go back to my original idea at the start of day 2 where the Mafia might have both Engies and double build dispensers to try and win early game with voting power.
Martin was also pretty quick to say he was clear by the fact the Mafia had 1 Engineer and just slide by.

The only thing I don't quite get is why nobody has requested access to Red Base even with it having a heal which would mean Mafia doesn't have another red member or someone is just lying about not entering the base for Martin to be Mafia.

mafia member enters base and martin says "ok nobody came in"?

I don't think that mafia roleblocking theselves for one voting power is anywhere near likely at this stage

particularly when the best ratio mafia had was 12v4

yeah that's true

[TonyStarkPrime]

we don't kill falcon or sig rn just because of mech

[TonyStarkPrime]

like two docs can keep marmot alive indefinitely and that's just too good i think

[TonyStarkPrime]

and also I think they're both town and we can force the wolves to shoot them

[LinearPoint]

I partially lied, I went back and looked at Sig more.
And here's a quote dump with some quick thoughts.

Spoiler: show

Hey I'm here sorry for going awall second part of last phase work got crazy. I"ll catch up on the thread today. Does look like we had a cfd which smh those never work shame.

Immediatly thinking we should review dizzy post see what's up with them, but also not a fan of LP jumping right into throwing out names. Especially since one of those names are mine

I said this day 2, but this still comes across to me as being very defensive just because I said Sig, Sabie, and Jack were scummy at the start of day 2.
I was right about Sabie and this seems to me as someone who was scared that i accurately named 2 Mafia.

Sabie's a mixed bag from her iso so her mafia meta is a bit different than town mainly based off cases/votes

Mafia camp

1. She's being a lower poster which is a mafia tell for her
2. Doesn"t seem to be case building really, just jumping onto other wagons.
3. The marmot, gavil, sean jump isn't great and I do think LP made a good point re thoughts on marmot. Now that is something you see from both civ/mafia sabie, but usually her indecisiveness is based off her own cases, not existing wagons and is more like Im not sure if i should vote for person Y.

Town camp
1. Her posts seem genuine, like I've seen from her town game minus lack of hunting
2. I think she was being honest during our brief discussion/unsure. Which is also within her civ meta more so than mafia.

So right off the bat struggling to find more town than potential mafia tells I would like some other people familar with her meta to weight in though. My issue is she also gets mischopped alot.

I just posted how their reads on Nanook were 50/50, but I also just found this from D2 where they were also pretty iffy about calling Sabie Town or Mafia ultimately saying it's possibly just a mischop.

So my biggest issue right now is I don't have any super solid mafia reads.

I'm back and forth on Gullio, his low tunneling on me is a bit scummy and he's not doing much content wise just volume also there's this weird thing with naa which doesn't seem V/V unless I"m missing something? But, he was also pushing sabie for awhile if i recall correctly and Last phase I pegged him as tunneling towny which seems more right.

I think the LC read on jack has some merit, but with the amount of blocks, protects, eCt out there it isn't solid.

I think most likely mafia are laying low, maybe we've got one who voted to save sabie, but doubt it's more than that, and probably one on her wagon? I need to go backk and look at that lay out.

Also beginning to suspect Falcon given his under the radar playstyle and D1 flipflopping vote then avoidance of wagons.

I'm under the radar? You've got fewer than 80 posts, kettle meet pot?

Maybe we're both mafia.

damn should've said

I go for quality not quantity thank you very much.

Lets just pretend I said that instead.

This is probably the only other quote I can see as being a little weird since I know some players like to tongue and cheek say things along those lines the "maybe we're Mafia together" kind of like a "catch me if you can" attitude.
It's minor, but seems just a bit odd and out of place since jokes like these don't usually come out D3.

I also decided to go over Nanookand Sabie's posts to look for some possible connections.

Sabie:

Spoiler: show

Trying to sort out the LP Guillo argument. I think meta reads can be open to interpretation like two people can see someone's play in different ways. So I feel like falcon seemed like his usual town self to me far but I don't know him as well as others might. My wilgy meta is telling me his random mumble posting is towny.

This post likely names 1 Mafia. It was one of their few reads. They gave a pass to Wiggly and Falcon for meta posts and ultimately said the interaction between me and Gullio was NAI for both of us.
Effectively Sabie gave 2 non-reads and 2 Town reads for very little.

Is tsp making up random false meta on me to prove the point from an earlier discussion about faking meta reads?

I don't think TSP and Sabie is a thing honestly. Sabie was basically trying to shade TSP here.

Hmm I guess Marmot's disinterest is odd and could be mafia? If he were then he hasn't provided much interaction with anyone so he wouldn't be worried about giving away teammates if he gets voted off. I can never get a good read on Jack. If Jack is mafia he's better to get out earlier rather than later. Does gavial have a different playstyle when town or mafia? He always seems kinda all over the place.
Throwing a vote on marmot for now. Hoping to be able to come back later before EOD.
[VOTE: marmot] aubergine

This was the post that I called Sabie out for being really oppertunistic voting just to vote.
I think this 100% spews Marmot and there is just never a chance Marmot busses Sabie.

Sabie's other posts were basically just spewing Jack and Gav as Town which we already know.

Nanook unfortunately gave nothing away, Their only read other than Gav and Jack which they basically spewed Town was a town read on me.

[LinearPoint]

like two docs can keep marmot alive indefinitely and that's just too good i think

Except with 1 Mafia remains their kills bypass roleblocks and heals, so no.

[LinearPoint]

Oh wait, I'm actually wrong.
Mafia crit can be roleblocked, it cannot be healed.
So if anything we need LC and Dolby alive as long as possible to confirm people not Mafia.

[LinearPoint]

Then honestly that quote I made earlier pretty much sums up one of Faldon and Wiggly are Mafia.
I'm probably just going to say leave falcon alive so that he can heal Dolby or LC to we can keep the Roleblockers longer.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Oh wait, I'm actually wrong.
Mafia crit can be roleblocked, it cannot be healed.
So if anything we need LC and Dolby alive as long as possible to confirm people not Mafia.

it can also be healed by the doctors basically on a three night cycle

[TonyStarkPrime]

like yeah we just kill wilgy here just because everyone else is too useful

[LinearPoint]

As detrimental as it is to my own health tbh Pyro isn't useful to have around.
Neither really is Heavy, but I think both Heavies in play are pretty townie tbh.
Every other role is actually useful.

[LinearPoint]

Well I guess to be fair Pyro and Heavy are mainly only useful in MyLo when their vote and kill target manipulations actually can do something useful for town.

[MacDougall]

you know if guillo is town we can kinda just break the game lol

[MartinGG99]

reading some of the posts on this page

I would like to express that I think Sig's posts in early D1 (in particular with respect to LP) were preety towny

Its more of a feel thing but if I had to sum it up he didn't seem to feel threatened or self-concerned in a bad way and I think how he reacted to LP (while suspecting LP at that time) was rather genuine and towny


sorry Marmot I had to increase the post-count

[MartinGG99]

Errr D2 not D1