Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 7]

[falcon45ca]

If this is a math test, I'm gonna fail

[hollowkatt]

there's 40 saves vs the trash pandas. N1they get 1 kill. N2 they get 2. This pattern repeats.

Trash Pandas win when they kill nanook. We win when they're all gone. Obvs it makes sense to have some amount of protection going on nanook every night, and we have the saves to do it. As the game goes on there'll be people less likely to be pandas, we don't save them.

There will be people more likely to be pandas, we save them.

What we don't do is play games with how we're saving. Conservative play here I think makes the most sense. On even nights we need 2 people on nanook, odd nights only one. There should be nights where some pandas don't save at all.

[Creature]

Ideally we should be coordinating protects so we don't waste all of them too early.

[Creature]

If we go in the dark most likely half the players will use protect N1 which can be bad in the late game if most players alive have used all or almost all their shots.

[falcon45ca]

there's 40 saves vs the trash pandas. N1they get 1 kill. N2 they get 2. This pattern repeats.

Trash Pandas win when they kill nanook. We win when they're all gone. Obvs it makes sense to have some amount of protection going on nanook every night, and we have the saves to do it. As the game goes on there'll be people less likely to be pandas, we don't save them.

There will be people more likely to be pandas, we save them.

What we don't do is play games with how we're saving. Conservative play here I think makes the most sense. On even nights we need 2 people on nanook, odd nights only one. There should be nights where some pandas don't save at all.

How do we make sure the 1 player is town?



Cuz surely you've thought of a Maf claiming to save Nook and then...not saving Nook.



We need redundancies each night so Maf don't take control of save position

[falcon45ca]

I'd think we need min 3, possibly 4 players assigned to save Nook.



2 seems to easy for Maf to penetrate, but 3 should work I'd think

[Creature]

I'd think we need min 3, possibly 4 players assigned to save Nook.



2 seems to easy for Maf to penetrate, but 3 should work I'd think

We're really fucked up if we choose three mafia as our trusty players.

[Creature]

Perhaps on even nights we'd need 5 players.

[Creature]

Also I hope this day doesn't become just mech talk. Other than the doc things, this game is pretty much somewhere between mountainous to nightless vanilla. We'll need oldschool wolf hunting.

[hollowkatt]

there's 40 saves vs the trash pandas. N1they get 1 kill. N2 they get 2. This pattern repeats.

Trash Pandas win when they kill nanook. We win when they're all gone. Obvs it makes sense to have some amount of protection going on nanook every night, and we have the saves to do it. As the game goes on there'll be people less likely to be pandas, we don't save them.

There will be people more likely to be pandas, we save them.

What we don't do is play games with how we're saving. Conservative play here I think makes the most sense. On even nights we need 2 people on nanook, odd nights only one. There should be nights where some pandas don't save at all.

How do we make sure the 1 player is town?



Cuz surely you've thought of a Maf claiming to save Nook and then...not saving Nook.



We need redundancies each night so Maf don't take control of save position

yeah, absolutely. So what we ought to do is create groups of 4. We shouldn't create these groups till like 20ish hours or so have elapsed in the game day so that we'll have some kinds of reads, but we create groups of 4.

Odds are very low we'll ever have more than 1 trash panda in a group, if we make them well. Then we assign groups to protect each night.

So say G1 is me, you, creature, guillo. we assign G1 to protect N1. We'll tell G1 people "at two of you protect nanook tonight. Then we have to trust that we've hit 2 townies in the group and they protect.

There's a lot of trust involved but it's basically a secret hitler variant where you've just got to get to a circle of trusted players ASAP and then work with those trusted players to do the protecting. Likewise we need to continually add trusted players to the groups so that we keep nanook protected.

Since we're not dealing with majority votes to eliminate during the day we don't really have to worry about things like parity, as long as there's more town than trash we should be fine.

I'm sure I'm missing shit but tihs is the basic idea I came up with.

[Guillotine]

nanook lock town never rescind

This is TMI

Im telling you right now, i aint attempting to save anyone in this game but myself, i believes in flips over saves.

Is this a dumbtell?

yes, yes it is. Guillo lock town never rescinding.

Smh HK, here we go again

[falcon45ca]

I'd think we need min 3, possibly 4 players assigned to save Nook.



2 seems to easy for Maf to penetrate, but 3 should work I'd think

We're really fucked up if we choose three mafia as our trusty players.

We can rotate them each night. Using an RNG might be the best way to make it less likely Maf becoming the Nook Safety Team, which we can now refer to as the NST for convenience sake

[hollowkatt]

nanook lock town never rescind

This is TMI

Im telling you right now, i aint attempting to save anyone in this game but myself, i believes in flips over saves.

Is this a dumbtell?

yes, yes it is. Guillo lock town never rescinding.

Smh HK, here we go again

yeah only this time I'm town!

Seriously though, I expect trash panda guillo to know these things and not make those posts even if you're trying to scrape town reads with them. You've got more skills than that and don't need to resort to derps.

[NotAnAxehole]

Ok, so basic risk calculation indicates that if we all roll 3, and we only save on a 3 (1/3 of the time)... There's a 1.7% probability of mafia winning instantly with a shot on Nanook -> This isn't a viable shot for them.

If we maintain a ~1.5-2% chance each day (just need to calculate the numbers for each amount of pandas), every scenario, should be trivial...

That gives mafia about a 7% chance of winning in by day 4 (exclusive targeting Nanook), 13% chance with 8 days of targeting...

This is a very good number for town, and I think Nanook can kill mafia faster than this.. I have not calculated the probability of us running out of saves, but I would probably do that privately...

Nobody ever saves anyone but Nanook, and nobody ever claims saves.

[Guillotine]

95% of this game is just coordinating saves right?

I thought about something like this:

Odd-nights: wolves have one kill. Therefore, we nominate three trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice (1/3 or 1/4) to protect someone else they expect wolves would try to kill.

Even-nights: wolves have two kills. Therefore, we nominate four or five trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice.

I think one strategy is to make players who expect to die earlier to save first. I think the trusty players should be those most likely to be nightkilled early and the everybody else, instead of a dice, decides if they're likely to die (either to nightkill or lynch) and if they are they protect someone they expect wolves to nightkill.

You know what i think about plans? They help wolves, what if we just do whatever the fuck we want and be unpredictable, that way the wolves cant predict our moves, yah? Cool!

[NotAnAxehole]

So tonight, we each take a 66% probability of no save, and a 33% probability of saving Nanook - And we just need to check if Pandas have sufficient saves to save other people / themselves.

[Creature]

95% of this game is just coordinating saves right?

I thought about something like this:

Odd-nights: wolves have one kill. Therefore, we nominate three trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice (1/3 or 1/4) to protect someone else they expect wolves would try to kill.

Even-nights: wolves have two kills. Therefore, we nominate four or five trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice.

I think one strategy is to make players who expect to die earlier to save first. I think the trusty players should be those most likely to be nightkilled early and the everybody else, instead of a dice, decides if they're likely to die (either to nightkill or lynch) and if they are they protect someone they expect wolves to nightkill.

You know what i think about plans? They help wolves, what if we just do whatever the fuck we want and be unpredictable, that way the wolves cant predict our moves, yah? Cool!

We run the risk of running out of saves though. It's better we coordinate so we can save some for lategame.

[NotAnAxehole]

I'll run the numbers on that later...

[NotAnAxehole]

95% of this game is just coordinating saves right?

I thought about something like this:

Odd-nights: wolves have one kill. Therefore, we nominate three trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice (1/3 or 1/4) to protect someone else they expect wolves would try to kill.

Even-nights: wolves have two kills. Therefore, we nominate four or five trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice.

I think one strategy is to make players who expect to die earlier to save first. I think the trusty players should be those most likely to be nightkilled early and the everybody else, instead of a dice, decides if they're likely to die (either to nightkill or lynch) and if they are they protect someone they expect wolves to nightkill.

You know what i think about plans? They help wolves, what if we just do whatever the fuck we want and be unpredictable, that way the wolves cant predict our moves, yah? Cool!

If wolves can predict 10 dice rolls, I think they deserve the win.

[hollowkatt]

Ok, so basic risk calculation indicates that if we all roll 3, and we only save on a 3 (1/3 of the time)... There's a 1.7% probability of mafia winning instantly with a shot on Nanook -> This isn't a viable shot for them.

If we maintain a ~1.5-2% chance each day (just need to calculate the numbers for each amount of pandas), every scenario, should be trivial...

That gives mafia about a 7% chance of winning in by day 4 (exclusive targeting Nanook), 13% chance with 8 days of targeting...

This is a very good number for town, and I think Nanook can kill mafia faster than this.. I have not calculated the probability of us running out of saves, but I would probably do that privately...

Nobody ever saves anyone but Nanook, and nobody ever claims saves.

So tonight, we each take a 66% probability of no save, and a 33% probability of saving Nanook - And we just need to check if Pandas have sufficient saves to save other people / themselves.

I don't hate any of this and the math looks like it makes sense. Again I'm thinking along the lines of Secret Hitler type play where we forum a trusted circle and instead of slowly shrinking it to the bare minimum we need to win the game we slowly grow it with additional trusted people.

The problem is I tend to town read maths posts like this and it's super easy for a wolf to make.

[Creature]

Ok, so basic risk calculation indicates that if we all roll 3, and we only save on a 3 (1/3 of the time)... There's a 1.7% probability of mafia winning instantly with a shot on Nanook -> This isn't a viable shot for them.

If we maintain a ~1.5-2% chance each day (just need to calculate the numbers for each amount of pandas), every scenario, should be trivial...

That gives mafia about a 7% chance of winning in by day 4 (exclusive targeting Nanook), 13% chance with 8 days of targeting...

This is a very good number for town, and I think Nanook can kill mafia faster than this.. I have not calculated the probability of us running out of saves, but I would probably do that privately...

Nobody ever saves anyone but Nanook, and nobody ever claims saves.

Wolves can kill somewhere else and that can accelerate their win condition, especially because they're getting two kills in even nights. So we'll need some non-NANOOK saves.

[NotAnAxehole]

This game is designed in such a way that if you don't solve and agree on the math problem, there's literally 0 incentive to play mafia, because you'll lose over mechanics. It's pretty basic.

[Creature]

I think players who expect to die early should be doing the saving, while players who expect to survive longer should try to save some of their shots.

[NotAnAxehole]

Ok, so basic risk calculation indicates that if we all roll 3, and we only save on a 3 (1/3 of the time)... There's a 1.7% probability of mafia winning instantly with a shot on Nanook -> This isn't a viable shot for them.

If we maintain a ~1.5-2% chance each day (just need to calculate the numbers for each amount of pandas), every scenario, should be trivial...

That gives mafia about a 7% chance of winning in by day 4 (exclusive targeting Nanook), 13% chance with 8 days of targeting...

This is a very good number for town, and I think Nanook can kill mafia faster than this.. I have not calculated the probability of us running out of saves, but I would probably do that privately...

Nobody ever saves anyone but Nanook, and nobody ever claims saves.

Wolves can kill somewhere else and that can accelerate their win condition, especially because they're getting two kills in even nights. So we'll need some non-NANOOK saves.

Killing other players only accelerates the parity wincon. We just need to calculate the best probability for

10 pandas
9
8
7
6
5
4
3

[NotAnAxehole]

Keep it at 1.5-2% risk by changing the dice roll @ creature.

at 10, that's 2/3 no save, 1/3 save

I haven't done the work on the rest, but someone can go for it, I'm going to watch a film and do it after if not done yet.

[Creature]

We should still do some non-NANOOK saving because we're likely losing if we only protect NANOOK. It's 11 v 4 and wolves will get 3 kills every two nights.

[NotAnAxehole]

Again, the goal of the plan is that nobody knows who has saves left at any point in the game, and there's no way for the wolves to read into it. That way the wolves need to play a standard game of mafia, and they have the option to take the hail mary so long as we need to keep that option open for them in order to complete our own wincon.

[NotAnAxehole]

We should still do some non-NANOOK saving because we're likely losing if we only protect NANOOK. It's 11 v 4 and wolves will get 3 kills every two nights.

Yeah, I'll calculate how much we can allot to that after... And once we all agree on the risk factor, we lock it in and stop playing the mechanics, and just play mafia.

[Guillotine]

nanook lock town never rescind

This is TMI

Im telling you right now, i aint attempting to save anyone in this game but myself, i believes in flips over saves.

Is this a dumbtell?

yes, yes it is. Guillo lock town never rescinding.

Smh HK, here we go again

yeah only this time I'm town!

Seriously though, I expect trash panda guillo to know these things and not make those posts even if you're trying to scrape town reads with them. You've got more skills than that and don't need to resort to derps.

My wolf range is infinite, there is nothing i wouldnt do as a wolf. If you think that im the kind of purist wolf who like Dexter (showtime series) has a code of procedures to achieve a wincon (or in Dexter case a righteous kill), then you haven't learnt anything in the one year you played with me. I'm town here but i dont believe you'd townread me for something i can EASILY fake and use to my advantage if i could if i was a wolf.

[VOTE: Hollowkatt] aubergine

Pocket denied.

[Guillotine]

Ok, so basic risk calculation indicates that if we all roll 3, and we only save on a 3 (1/3 of the time)... There's a 1.7% probability of mafia winning instantly with a shot on Nanook -> This isn't a viable shot for them.

If we maintain a ~1.5-2% chance each day (just need to calculate the numbers for each amount of pandas), every scenario, should be trivial...

That gives mafia about a 7% chance of winning in by day 4 (exclusive targeting Nanook), 13% chance with 8 days of targeting...

This is a very good number for town, and I think Nanook can kill mafia faster than this.. I have not calculated the probability of us running out of saves, but I would probably do that privately...

Nobody ever saves anyone but Nanook, and nobody ever claims saves.

Im not this kind of nerd. Math is mot my forté. Anything for players like me, a map or something?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I'm gonna shoot at 24 hour mark every day, first person to complain about it or call it anti-town gets shot today

[Creature]

I am tired of talking about mechanics, to be honest. Can we settle on a strategy that protects NANOOK and towny non-NANOOKs but saves enough shots for lategame?

[Creature]

I'm gonna shoot at 24 hour mark every day, first person to complain about it or call it anti-town gets shot today

Not opposed to this. Waiting 48 hours for a flip feels unbearable.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

95% of this game is just coordinating saves right?

I thought about something like this:

Odd-nights: wolves have one kill. Therefore, we nominate three trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice (1/3 or 1/4) to protect someone else they expect wolves would try to kill.

Even-nights: wolves have two kills. Therefore, we nominate four or five trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice.

I think one strategy is to make players who expect to die earlier to save first. I think the trusty players should be those most likely to be nightkilled early and the everybody else, instead of a dice, decides if they're likely to die (either to nightkill or lynch) and if they are they protect someone they expect wolves to nightkill.

You know what i think about plans? They help wolves, what if we just do whatever the fuck we want and be unpredictable, that way the wolves cant predict our moves, yah? Cool!

If you don't follow a plan im gonna shoot you d1, full stop

[Urist]

going to try to come up with a plan that doesn't suck balls in a bit
but i wanted to say that i do agree with not claiming. ideal play would be to lie anyway.

[Creature]

Mountainous hype

[Guillotine]

95% of this game is just coordinating saves right?

I thought about something like this:

Odd-nights: wolves have one kill. Therefore, we nominate three trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice (1/3 or 1/4) to protect someone else they expect wolves would try to kill.

Even-nights: wolves have two kills. Therefore, we nominate four or five trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice.

I think one strategy is to make players who expect to die earlier to save first. I think the trusty players should be those most likely to be nightkilled early and the everybody else, instead of a dice, decides if they're likely to die (either to nightkill or lynch) and if they are they protect someone they expect wolves to nightkill.

You know what i think about plans? They help wolves, what if we just do whatever the fuck we want and be unpredictable, that way the wolves cant predict our moves, yah? Cool!

If you don't follow a plan im gonna shoot you d1, full stop

You can be red panda all you want, you are not my boss. Get the hell out of here

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

95% of this game is just coordinating saves right?

I thought about something like this:

Odd-nights: wolves have one kill. Therefore, we nominate three trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice (1/3 or 1/4) to protect someone else they expect wolves would try to kill.

Even-nights: wolves have two kills. Therefore, we nominate four or five trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice.

I think one strategy is to make players who expect to die earlier to save first. I think the trusty players should be those most likely to be nightkilled early and the everybody else, instead of a dice, decides if they're likely to die (either to nightkill or lynch) and if they are they protect someone they expect wolves to nightkill.

You know what i think about plans? They help wolves, what if we just do whatever the fuck we want and be unpredictable, that way the wolves cant predict our moves, yah? Cool!

If you don't follow a plan im gonna shoot you d1, full stop

You can be red panda all you want, you are not my boss. Get the hell out of here

If you're not gonna play the game in a way that allows town to win then I'm just gonna shoot you lol

[Creature]

I confess NAA's plan looks a lot less complicated. Would have to calculate how many doc shots are going to be used per night though and also add the % for saving non-NANOOKs.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Like I don't really want to policy shoot but I also don't want to lose because someone can't follow a plan cause they have too much ego, y'know

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Anyways I'm not gonna post much, you guys do your thing

[Urist]

We should still do some non-NANOOK saving because we're likely losing if we only protect NANOOK. It's 11 v 4 and wolves will get 3 kills every two nights.

Yeah, I'll calculate how much we can allot to that after... And once we all agree on the risk factor, we lock it in and stop playing the mechanics, and just play mafia.

the acceptable risk is roughly:
the amount of "winrate" scum loses by missing a kill... minus 1%

[hollowkatt]

that's probably ideal from nanook tbh to just read and maybe react to pings or something like that

[Guillotine]

Like I don't really want to policy shoot but I also don't want to lose because someone can't follow a plan cause they have too much ego, y'know

It's not ego. Just because you are confirmed town it does not mean that whatever you come up with is the perfect plan or solve to win the game, pull your head out of your buttocks and work with me. We have had our differences but im not a thrower.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I have exactly 1 town read, and it's not Hallowkatt.

Before I forget, who's your town read

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Like I don't really want to policy shoot but I also don't want to lose because someone can't follow a plan cause they have too much ego, y'know

It's not ego. Just because you are confirmed town it does not mean that whatever you come up with is the perfect plan or solve to win the game, pull your head out of your buttocks and work with me. We have had our differences but im not a thrower.

K, insulting me isn't the way to go here

It's not you specifically, it's anyone that won't agree to follow the mech plan. Like...that's just how this game is, it requires cooperation, so the choices are either work with the group or get shot

You're welcome to give input on the plan obviously, but if you're just gonna say "no fuck that im not following any plans!" That's just...not something we can afford in this setup, lol

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Anyways this game is literally up to me to solve so like

Antagonizing me and refusing to cooperate isn't gonna help things

Literally just asking you to be a team player

[Creature]

What about 70% chance of not saving NANOOK and 30% chance of saving NANOOK? That's like 3% chance of wolves winning if they shoot NANOOK in one night and 20% chance if they shoot NANOOK in eight nights.

Though, to be honest I'm not counting the double kills on even nights.

[NotAnAxehole]

We should still do some non-NANOOK saving because we're likely losing if we only protect NANOOK. It's 11 v 4 and wolves will get 3 kills every two nights.

Yeah, I'll calculate how much we can allot to that after... And once we all agree on the risk factor, we lock it in and stop playing the mechanics, and just play mafia.

the acceptable risk is roughly:
the amount of "winrate" scum loses by missing a kill... minus 1%

It's scum's probability of winning if they target Nanook exclusively.

[Creature]

Alternatively we can nominate one player (on odd nights) or two players (on even nights) to protect NANOOK and everybody else rands their shots incase the nominated players happen to be wolves.