Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]

[robyn]

properly read falcons iso, it was disgusting, the wording and hesitation of every message is really bad

Did you not read his posts until now?

at work on mobile taking care of kids, couldn't properly read for intentions and other things while taking care of 15 kids in 90 degree weather

[NateTheLesser]

Looks like falcon is dying today. I'm fine with that.

Also, I'll be more active Day 2.

Feeling better?

[RondoDimBuckle]

properly read falcons iso, it was disgusting, the wording and hesitation of every message is really bad

Lucy at the risk of us miscommunicating again.

It sounds like you were going in with a preconceived outcome and looking for evidence to support that. Or did you approach it from a more holistic point of view?

more of a psychological point of view of the specific thoughts in a message and how bluntly or passively and how long a message took to make, just seeing it like that, if I disliked it (as in I thought he was town) I just would not vote and he'd be lynched regardless

Thanks for sharing

[RondoDimBuckle]

I have no idea tbh. I'm slightly afraid of falcon flipping town so I'm looking for votes of confidence.

My perspective: It's Day 1. On one hand, there's not a lot of content to work with, so having true confidence in getting a hit is challenging. On the other hand, this is the point in the game where repercussions for being wrong are at their lowest point, so pressure is lower in getting it wrong, so it's easier for me to be confident that whatever decision we make is not a bad one.

I always feel sorry for the player I'm mislynching. I always fight off mislynches on me and it's sad to then mislynch someone else.

So your push on ender is a selfpres push?

[Marmot]

Looks like falcon is dying today. I'm fine with that.

Also, I'll be more active Day 2.

Feeling better?

Yes thanks, and I don't work tomorrow, so I can actually rest.

[Creature]

I suppose this lynch will tell whether wolves are doing well or not. D2 we reevaluate according that.

[Alison]

My legacy is as follows:

I trust JJJ, Mac, Boq, and Lucy. Do not touch these people D2 regardless of the flip. That said, JJJ and Mac should be re-evaluated around D3 or D4 if they do not produce pelts, and should always be policied if they make it to endgame after starting off the game like this.

Wilgy is my against-the-grain townread; I think there's enough townie moments in his posts that I wouldn't vote him out.

Ender, Creature, and Falcon if he survives somehow (he shouldn't if you guys play the game properly instead of being flash wagoning junkies) are my immediate POE.

Dizzy as afk town usually gets his butt kicked into gear around midgame and turns into a townie machine. I get he is playing lowkey this game which he has definitely done before but hold him accountable if he continues to do nothing. I am treating him as =rand for now.

I don't know how to read fingersplints. I am mostly just sheeping JJJ's light townlean on her.

Seanzie should be clear if one of the people he's been pushing (Wilgy or Ender especially) flips scum. He hasn't been mega town but his solving has been ~fine and he's been hitting townie notes in his sudden swings of aggression against people who make posts he doesn't like.

I am trusting Mac and Ender's reads on Rondo right now since they can read Rondo much better than me. I will reiterate that I have been supremely unimpressed by Rondo's play this day phase and urge them to re-evaluate him if I die.

I'd put Marmot just out of the POE. I have liked his EOD play and I recall liking a post of his earlier (though I can't remember which one). Not a lot to work with but all the stuff I've seen has been neutral or good and his vibes have been ok. Call it a gut read or whatever. Definitely don't agree with this random Marmot flash for no reason and if falcon is scum I would suggest guillotining everyone who tried to push it. Feels a bit like the Seanzie flash in GOC this year where they have been an unobjectionable slot and suddenly people are naked voting them at EOD for no reason at all.

I think Nate is a fine if unremarkable slot. They project the same sense of loneliness/solo solving that Boquise does and I can't really figure out what they're doing if they're scum. I liked JJJ's characterization of his posts as being like sipping tea in a comfy armchair, and I think that sense of composure and clarity is indicative of a townie approach. I know some have brought up that he seems to be attracting a lot of townreads for very thin reasons, but I don't think it's any worse than how people treated eg. Lucy. I wouldn't locktown him or anything but I feel comfortable with him aorn.

[Marmot]

I suppose this lynch will tell whether wolves are doing well or not. D2 we reevaluate according that.

If the wolves aren't doing well, we should write them a "Get well soon" card

[Creature]

I have no idea tbh. I'm slightly afraid of falcon flipping town so I'm looking for votes of confidence.

My perspective: It's Day 1. On one hand, there's not a lot of content to work with, so having true confidence in getting a hit is challenging. On the other hand, this is the point in the game where repercussions for being wrong are at their lowest point, so pressure is lower in getting it wrong, so it's easier for me to be confident that whatever decision we make is not a bad one.

I always feel sorry for the player I'm mislynching. I always fight off mislynches on me and it's sad to then mislynch someone else.

So your push on ender is a selfpres push?

Nah, it's an "I don't want to be wrong" push. I'm likely off today's table anyway.

[RondoDimBuckle]

My legacy is as follows:

I trust JJJ, Mac, Boq, and Lucy. Do not touch these people D2 regardless of the flip. That said, JJJ and Mac should be re-evaluated around D3 or D4 if they do not produce pelts, and should always be policied if they make it to endgame after starting off the game like this.

Wilgy is my against-the-grain townread; I think there's enough townie moments in his posts that I wouldn't vote him out.

Ender, Creature, and Falcon if he survives somehow (he shouldn't if you guys play the game properly instead of being flash wagoning junkies) are my immediate POE.

Dizzy as afk town usually gets his butt kicked into gear around midgame and turns into a townie machine. I get he is playing lowkey this game which he has definitely done before but hold him accountable if he continues to do nothing. I am treating him as =rand for now.

I don't know how to read fingersplints. I am mostly just sheeping JJJ's light townlean on her.

Seanzie should be clear if one of the people he's been pushing (Wilgy or Ender especially) flips scum. He hasn't been mega town but his solving has been ~fine and he's been hitting townie notes in his sudden swings of aggression against people who make posts he doesn't like.

I am trusting Mac and Ender's reads on Rondo right now since they can read Rondo much better than me. I will reiterate that I have been supremely unimpressed by Rondo's play this day phase and urge them to re-evaluate him if I die.

I'd put Marmot just out of the POE. I have liked his EOD play and I recall liking a post of his earlier (though I can't remember which one). Not a lot to work with but all the stuff I've seen has been neutral or good and his vibes have been ok. Call it a gut read or whatever. Definitely don't agree with this random Marmot flash for no reason and if falcon is scum I would suggest guillotining everyone who tried to push it. Feels a bit like the Seanzie flash in GOC this year where they have been an unobjectionable slot and suddenly people are naked voting them at EOD for no reason at all.

I think Nate is a fine if unremarkable slot. They project the same sense of loneliness/solo solving that Boquise does and I can't really figure out what they're doing if they're scum. I liked JJJ's characterization of his posts as being like sipping tea in a comfy armchair, and I think that sense of composure and clarity is indicative of a townie approach. I know some have brought up that he seems to be attracting a lot of townreads for very thin reasons, but I don't think it's any worse than how people treated eg. Lucy. I wouldn't locktown him or anything but I feel comfortable with him aorn.

You are always unimpressed by my play.

Lets get constructive. How can I improve? Just slamming me isnt going to produce any results

[Creature]

lol somehow I'm pushing Alison's least popular wolf pick.

[Alison]

Creature I know this doom and gloom "if we get one wrong flip the game is over gg" stuff is something you do every game but I hope you stop doing it because it's extremely unhelpful.

[Alison]

Do you actually have a strong reason to townread falcon or are you just resisting it for the sake of it?

[Creature]

Creature I know this doom and gloom "if we get one wrong flip the game is over gg" stuff is something you do every game but I hope you stop doing it because it's extremely unhelpful.

but at least it gets me engaged.

[Alison]

You are always unimpressed by my play.

Lets get constructive. How can I improve? Just slamming me isnt going to produce any results

I'd start by not intentionally antagonizing players and posting random shit for the sole purpose of being a troll.

[RondoDimBuckle]

You are always unimpressed by my play.

Lets get constructive. How can I improve? Just slamming me isnt going to produce any results

I'd start by not intentionally antagonizing players and posting random shit for the sole purpose of being a troll.

Ah, I see the problem now.

[Marmot]

I have no idea tbh. I'm slightly afraid of falcon flipping town so I'm looking for votes of confidence.

My perspective: It's Day 1. On one hand, there's not a lot of content to work with, so having true confidence in getting a hit is challenging. On the other hand, this is the point in the game where repercussions for being wrong are at their lowest point, so pressure is lower in getting it wrong, so it's easier for me to be confident that whatever decision we make is not a bad one.

I always feel sorry for the player I'm mislynching. I always fight off mislynches on me and it's sad to then mislynch someone else.

So your push on ender is a selfpres push?

Nah, it's an "I don't want to be wrong" push. I'm likely off today's table anyway.

It's mafia, a game where you win even when you're wrong 50% of the time.

[Marmot]

(imo trolling is just fine in moderation)

[RondoDimBuckle]

(imo trolling is just fine in moderation)

Its funny to me because Dizzy trolling gets a pass too

[Marmot]

I like Alison's "legacy". I feel like I understand the gamestate a little better, as well as her view (which seems to mirror mine albeit with all the gaps filled in).

I don't know if townreading Wilgy is against the grain at this point, but I am.

[robyn]

(imo trolling is just fine in moderation)

Its funny to me because Dizzy trolling gets a pass too

your trolling is subjectively much more heinous, you should stop

[Alison]

"We do a little trolling" is fine.

"We do nothing but trolling" is not fine.

If you want to have a more detailed convo about this in post we can. Currently, if you want me to back off my scumread of you, I'd suggest striving to have a more readable thought process so I can understand clearly who you read as what alignment, and why.

[Marmot]

(imo trolling is just fine in moderation)

Its funny to me because Dizzy trolling gets a pass too

Good point, we should probably troll him

Spoiler: show

I already have tbh

[Alison]

I like Alison's "legacy". I feel like I understand the gamestate a little better, as well as her view (which seems to mirror mine albeit with all the gaps filled in).

I don't know if townreading Wilgy is against the grain at this point, but I am.

As far as I can tell Wilgy is treated as null to scum by everyone except us two.

[RondoDimBuckle]

(imo trolling is just fine in moderation)

Its funny to me because Dizzy trolling gets a pass too

your trolling is subjectively much more heinous, you should stop

"We do a little trolling" is fine.

"We do nothing but trolling" is not fine.

If you want to have a more detailed convo about this in post we can. Currently, if you want me to back off my scumread of you, I'd suggest striving to have a more readable thought process so I can understand clearly who you read as what alignment, and why.

Ok fine, going into tomorrow I will reduce my trolling to a marmot level

[Marmot]

(imo trolling is just fine in moderation)

Its funny to me because Dizzy trolling gets a pass too

your trolling is subjectively much more heinous, you should stop

"We do a little trolling" is fine.

"We do nothing but trolling" is not fine.

If you want to have a more detailed convo about this in post we can. Currently, if you want me to back off my scumread of you, I'd suggest striving to have a more readable thought process so I can understand clearly who you read as what alignment, and why.

Ok fine, going into tomorrow I will reduce my trolling to a marmot level

oh no

[Marmot]

Conversation seems to be petering out, so I'm gonna go make dinner.

glgl

[RondoDimBuckle]

Sticking around in case there is a flash wagon

[Alison]

Sticking around in case there is a flash wagon

There should not be a flash wagon. Flash wagoning is bad. Do not do it.

[Marmot]

Sticking around in case there is a flash wagon

I appreciate you

(don't let them flashwagon me plz)

[Creature]

Sticking around in case there is a flash wagon

Unlikely

[Creature]

So how's your day?

[robyn]

cya @falcon45ca

[Creature]

Also yeah falcon will probably have to be sorted at some point anyway.

[robyn]

So how's your day?

good, yours?

[Marmot]

Sticking around in case there is a flash wagon

There should not be a flash wagon. Flash wagoning is bad. Do not do it.

In forum mafia, a flash wagon (formerly known as a “CFD”, although that term has since been deprecated due to racist connotations) is when the composition of a wagon changes dramatically during the final hours or even minutes of a day phase. When a flash wagon occurs, a player that has been at not risk at all throughout the day can be suddenly in danger of being executed, and players that seem to be the go-to execute may suddenly find themselves at zero votes. The phenomenon has been much-maligned as anti-town by players who desire stability and predictability, but these players are wrong. In this essay, I will give three reasons why flash wagons are pro-town – namely, that they create informational imbalances in favor of the town, that they can be used to garner authentic reactions from players, and that they can disrupt undesirably stagnant game states. Then, I will rebut some common but ill-informed objections to flash wagons to prove their superiority as a mafia strategy.

In a normal game of forum mafia (ie. without bastard elements or experimental changes that affect the nature of the game), the town tend to be the uninformed majority, and the mafia tend to be the informed minority. Thus, having more information is the mafia’s strength, while having more raw power is the town’s strength. The mafia do not only have more information in terms of knowing the alignments of each player, but they are also able to coordinate and scheme in mafia chat. Because town players are generally honest about their reads and intentions, this means that the mafia will have a strong idea as to how both town and mafia players will behave, allowing them to predict the outcome of the day, or gauge how certain players will vote. As a result, it is quite common to hear sentiments like “A will probably vote B, so we should leave them alive”, or “X will shield Y as long as we’re alive; if we intend to misexe Y, we should nightkill X” in mafia chat.

Flash wagons, because of their sudden, unpredictable and chaotic nature, upset the informational advantage that the mafia has. They are less able to predict the outcome of a day as long as town holds the threat of a flash wagon over them. In the fast-moving intensity of a flash wagon, a townie may well vote someone that they have listed as a townread, or vote to save someone that they previously scumread, when they would never do so in slower wagon formations. As a result, mafia find it more difficult to coordinate their actions, and find town players more unpredictable and volatile. This unpredictability strips away their informational advantage; mafia are just as lost as the next town player in terms of figuring out what’s going to happen, or what’s going on.

This frantic environment leads us to the next strength of flash wagons: they create situations where authentic reactions can be gathered from players. It is more difficult for mafia to plan out a convincing-looking reaction when they have only a few seconds, rather than minutes or hours, to craft their posts. In contrast, the genuine fluidity of townie thought shines in the hectic context of a flash wagon. Oftentimes, many slots that were generally regarded as suspicious can clear themselves as being town through their “unfakeable” reactions to a flash wagon, while mafia may expose themselves by being stilted or awkward, especially if their plan for the day phase has fallen apart.

This effect is amplified by being able to do vote-count analysis later on in the game. For instance, if a town player is the consensus wagon all day, and a mafia player is suddenly flash wagoned and goes over, then players who unhesitatingly pushed the flash wagon over, and especially the person who started it, may be cleared from that through vote-count analysis later on in the game. Conversely, even if a mafia player was on the chopping block and a town player gets flash wagoned to save them, the identities of the remaining mafia members can often be exposed by examining who appeared to be overly enthusiastic for the flash wagon.

The final advantage of flash wagons is that it allows town to shake-up an otherwise stagnant game state. Often, townies experience an eerie feeling that there is too much consensus about the person being voted out, questioning why the mafia members are so happy to let a teammate swing. (This is known as “Dead Air Dead Villager”, or DADV, and is a highly accurate tell that the town is misexecuting someone.) However, because consensus is so strong on this person, even if they suspect that the victim is town, they don’t have a way to remedy this stagnant game state.

This is where flash wagons come in. By spicing up the game with a rapidly-formed alternative wagon, you can provide the village with a strong and dynamic alternative to the consensus wagon that you no longer support. Even if your flash wagon does not target a mafia, at the very least it will shake town out of their rut and force them to seriously consider and re-evaluate the game rather than sleepwalking into a misexecution. As mafia, it is important to carefully manipulate the gamestate to lead town into complacency, infighting and other anti-town modes of thought. Similarly, it is important as town to manipulate the gamestate in your favor, and that means fighting against stagnancy and “shrug exes”, where nobody really seems to care about who goes over and just votes some random player who is bad at defending themselves.

Despite these clear benefits, certain delinquents have taken it upon themselves to publicly oppose flash wagons through ignorant reasoning. I will now rebut two of the most common objections against flash wagons.

The first objection is that flash wagons are misguided because the consensus wagon at EOD is bound to be based on a full day phase’s worth of analysis and logic, whereas the flash wagon is based on gut instinct, or a more nebulous sense that is something wrong. Critics of flash wagons sometimes claim that it is “throwing away 48 hours in exchange for 15 minutes”. This objection is wrong. Just because more time was put into coming up with a conclusion does not mean that conclusion is more likely to be correct. Another way to see it is that the mafia have had 48 hours to manipulate you throughout the day phase, but in the heat of the moment during a flash wagon, it is extremely difficult for them to do so. Thus, the “logic” that you engaged in throughout the day phase could easily be misguided, especially in the kinds of stagnant gamestates that flash wagons are most effective in, and should not be automatically considered to be more accurate than your gut instincts.

The second objection is that if a flash wagon hits a townie, it can be disastrous, as the consensus suspect from the previous day phase continues to be unresolved, and town has now lost an extra player, and another one from the nightkill, without moving the game forward or flipping their previous suspect. This, too, stems from a misguided understanding of flash wagons. As explained above, flash wagons provide a bevy of information that easily allow you to progress the game. If you can clear three people for making “unfakeable posts” during a frantic EOD, then you have gained something from the flash wagon, even if it hit a townie. Even the previous consensus suspect that was saved via the flash wagon can be cleared if town collectively realizes that they were the victim of DADV. It is a fallacy to assume that just because an unexpected person was flash wagon and killed that town will simply return to the state it was prior to the flash wagon. The development and context of the flash wagon itself will have likely changed the gamestate, and probably for the better.

[Seanzie]

Sticking around in case there is a flash wagon

There should not be a flash wagon. Flash wagoning is bad. Do not do it.

But I read your article about how beneficial flash wagoning is, and I was very convinced.

[Creature]

I hope I don't get re-wagoned tomorrow if falcon flips town.

[EnderWiggin]

Alison with the u-turn on their opinion on flash wagoning is kind of sus.

[RondoDimBuckle]

Sticking around in case there is a flash wagon

There should not be a flash wagon. Flash wagoning is bad. Do not do it.

Just because its bad doesnt mean it wont happen. I have seen a game weal from a "Certain mafia pick" to some random no poster in the last 60 seconds

Since I am here I may as well keep an eye on it

Sticking around in case there is a flash wagon

I appreciate you

(don't let them flashwagon me plz)

I appreciate you too, even if I might vote for you in the future. Really I want ender to make it to day 2 because I know he is a popular day 1 for wolves and if he is a wolf I can read him more with more content

[Creature]

wtf did Marmot just copypaste his doctorate thesis in this thread?

[Alison]

I'm really struggling to understand how Creature goes from "falcon is probably town, and once he flips town we'll have to re-eval all our reads tomorrow because mafia is probably snowing us all under" to "eh I'm fine with it, we had to sort him at some point anyway".

@Creature To be clear what is your read on falcon? Do you think they will flip town and if so what are your reasons for townreading him?

[robyn]

Sticking around in case there is a flash wagon

There should not be a flash wagon. Flash wagoning is bad. Do not do it.

In forum mafia, a flash wagon (formerly known as a “CFD”, although that term has since been deprecated due to racist connotations) is when the composition of a wagon changes dramatically during the final hours or even minutes of a day phase. When a flash wagon occurs, a player that has been at not risk at all throughout the day can be suddenly in danger of being executed, and players that seem to be the go-to execute may suddenly find themselves at zero votes. The phenomenon has been much-maligned as anti-town by players who desire stability and predictability, but these players are wrong. In this essay, I will give three reasons why flash wagons are pro-town – namely, that they create informational imbalances in favor of the town, that they can be used to garner authentic reactions from players, and that they can disrupt undesirably stagnant game states. Then, I will rebut some common but ill-informed objections to flash wagons to prove their superiority as a mafia strategy.

In a normal game of forum mafia (ie. without bastard elements or experimental changes that affect the nature of the game), the town tend to be the uninformed majority, and the mafia tend to be the informed minority. Thus, having more information is the mafia’s strength, while having more raw power is the town’s strength. The mafia do not only have more information in terms of knowing the alignments of each player, but they are also able to coordinate and scheme in mafia chat. Because town players are generally honest about their reads and intentions, this means that the mafia will have a strong idea as to how both town and mafia players will behave, allowing them to predict the outcome of the day, or gauge how certain players will vote. As a result, it is quite common to hear sentiments like “A will probably vote B, so we should leave them alive”, or “X will shield Y as long as we’re alive; if we intend to misexe Y, we should nightkill X” in mafia chat.

Flash wagons, because of their sudden, unpredictable and chaotic nature, upset the informational advantage that the mafia has. They are less able to predict the outcome of a day as long as town holds the threat of a flash wagon over them. In the fast-moving intensity of a flash wagon, a townie may well vote someone that they have listed as a townread, or vote to save someone that they previously scumread, when they would never do so in slower wagon formations. As a result, mafia find it more difficult to coordinate their actions, and find town players more unpredictable and volatile. This unpredictability strips away their informational advantage; mafia are just as lost as the next town player in terms of figuring out what’s going to happen, or what’s going on.

This frantic environment leads us to the next strength of flash wagons: they create situations where authentic reactions can be gathered from players. It is more difficult for mafia to plan out a convincing-looking reaction when they have only a few seconds, rather than minutes or hours, to craft their posts. In contrast, the genuine fluidity of townie thought shines in the hectic context of a flash wagon. Oftentimes, many slots that were generally regarded as suspicious can clear themselves as being town through their “unfakeable” reactions to a flash wagon, while mafia may expose themselves by being stilted or awkward, especially if their plan for the day phase has fallen apart.

This effect is amplified by being able to do vote-count analysis later on in the game. For instance, if a town player is the consensus wagon all day, and a mafia player is suddenly flash wagoned and goes over, then players who unhesitatingly pushed the flash wagon over, and especially the person who started it, may be cleared from that through vote-count analysis later on in the game. Conversely, even if a mafia player was on the chopping block and a town player gets flash wagoned to save them, the identities of the remaining mafia members can often be exposed by examining who appeared to be overly enthusiastic for the flash wagon.

The final advantage of flash wagons is that it allows town to shake-up an otherwise stagnant game state. Often, townies experience an eerie feeling that there is too much consensus about the person being voted out, questioning why the mafia members are so happy to let a teammate swing. (This is known as “Dead Air Dead Villager”, or DADV, and is a highly accurate tell that the town is misexecuting someone.) However, because consensus is so strong on this person, even if they suspect that the victim is town, they don’t have a way to remedy this stagnant game state.

This is where flash wagons come in. By spicing up the game with a rapidly-formed alternative wagon, you can provide the village with a strong and dynamic alternative to the consensus wagon that you no longer support. Even if your flash wagon does not target a mafia, at the very least it will shake town out of their rut and force them to seriously consider and re-evaluate the game rather than sleepwalking into a misexecution. As mafia, it is important to carefully manipulate the gamestate to lead town into complacency, infighting and other anti-town modes of thought. Similarly, it is important as town to manipulate the gamestate in your favor, and that means fighting against stagnancy and “shrug exes”, where nobody really seems to care about who goes over and just votes some random player who is bad at defending themselves.

Despite these clear benefits, certain delinquents have taken it upon themselves to publicly oppose flash wagons through ignorant reasoning. I will now rebut two of the most common objections against flash wagons.

The first objection is that flash wagons are misguided because the consensus wagon at EOD is bound to be based on a full day phase’s worth of analysis and logic, whereas the flash wagon is based on gut instinct, or a more nebulous sense that is something wrong. Critics of flash wagons sometimes claim that it is “throwing away 48 hours in exchange for 15 minutes”. This objection is wrong. Just because more time was put into coming up with a conclusion does not mean that conclusion is more likely to be correct. Another way to see it is that the mafia have had 48 hours to manipulate you throughout the day phase, but in the heat of the moment during a flash wagon, it is extremely difficult for them to do so. Thus, the “logic” that you engaged in throughout the day phase could easily be misguided, especially in the kinds of stagnant gamestates that flash wagons are most effective in, and should not be automatically considered to be more accurate than your gut instincts.

The second objection is that if a flash wagon hits a townie, it can be disastrous, as the consensus suspect from the previous day phase continues to be unresolved, and town has now lost an extra player, and another one from the nightkill, without moving the game forward or flipping their previous suspect. This, too, stems from a misguided understanding of flash wagons. As explained above, flash wagons provide a bevy of information that easily allow you to progress the game. If you can clear three people for making “unfakeable posts” during a frantic EOD, then you have gained something from the flash wagon, even if it hit a townie. Even the previous consensus suspect that was saved via the flash wagon can be cleared if town collectively realizes that they were the victim of DADV. It is a fallacy to assume that just because an unexpected person was flash wagon and killed that town will simply return to the state it was prior to the flash wagon. The development and context of the flash wagon itself will have likely changed the gamestate, and probably for the better.

I am convinced, let's flash wagon you

[Alison]

Sticking around in case there is a flash wagon

There should not be a flash wagon. Flash wagoning is bad. Do not do it.

In forum mafia, a flash wagon (formerly known as a “CFD”, although that term has since been deprecated due to racist connotations) is when the composition of a wagon changes dramatically during the final hours or even minutes of a day phase. When a flash wagon occurs, a player that has been at not risk at all throughout the day can be suddenly in danger of being executed, and players that seem to be the go-to execute may suddenly find themselves at zero votes. The phenomenon has been much-maligned as anti-town by players who desire stability and predictability, but these players are wrong. In this essay, I will give three reasons why flash wagons are pro-town – namely, that they create informational imbalances in favor of the town, that they can be used to garner authentic reactions from players, and that they can disrupt undesirably stagnant game states. Then, I will rebut some common but ill-informed objections to flash wagons to prove their superiority as a mafia strategy.

In a normal game of forum mafia (ie. without bastard elements or experimental changes that affect the nature of the game), the town tend to be the uninformed majority, and the mafia tend to be the informed minority. Thus, having more information is the mafia’s strength, while having more raw power is the town’s strength. The mafia do not only have more information in terms of knowing the alignments of each player, but they are also able to coordinate and scheme in mafia chat. Because town players are generally honest about their reads and intentions, this means that the mafia will have a strong idea as to how both town and mafia players will behave, allowing them to predict the outcome of the day, or gauge how certain players will vote. As a result, it is quite common to hear sentiments like “A will probably vote B, so we should leave them alive”, or “X will shield Y as long as we’re alive; if we intend to misexe Y, we should nightkill X” in mafia chat.

Flash wagons, because of their sudden, unpredictable and chaotic nature, upset the informational advantage that the mafia has. They are less able to predict the outcome of a day as long as town holds the threat of a flash wagon over them. In the fast-moving intensity of a flash wagon, a townie may well vote someone that they have listed as a townread, or vote to save someone that they previously scumread, when they would never do so in slower wagon formations. As a result, mafia find it more difficult to coordinate their actions, and find town players more unpredictable and volatile. This unpredictability strips away their informational advantage; mafia are just as lost as the next town player in terms of figuring out what’s going to happen, or what’s going on.

This frantic environment leads us to the next strength of flash wagons: they create situations where authentic reactions can be gathered from players. It is more difficult for mafia to plan out a convincing-looking reaction when they have only a few seconds, rather than minutes or hours, to craft their posts. In contrast, the genuine fluidity of townie thought shines in the hectic context of a flash wagon. Oftentimes, many slots that were generally regarded as suspicious can clear themselves as being town through their “unfakeable” reactions to a flash wagon, while mafia may expose themselves by being stilted or awkward, especially if their plan for the day phase has fallen apart.

This effect is amplified by being able to do vote-count analysis later on in the game. For instance, if a town player is the consensus wagon all day, and a mafia player is suddenly flash wagoned and goes over, then players who unhesitatingly pushed the flash wagon over, and especially the person who started it, may be cleared from that through vote-count analysis later on in the game. Conversely, even if a mafia player was on the chopping block and a town player gets flash wagoned to save them, the identities of the remaining mafia members can often be exposed by examining who appeared to be overly enthusiastic for the flash wagon.

The final advantage of flash wagons is that it allows town to shake-up an otherwise stagnant game state. Often, townies experience an eerie feeling that there is too much consensus about the person being voted out, questioning why the mafia members are so happy to let a teammate swing. (This is known as “Dead Air Dead Villager”, or DADV, and is a highly accurate tell that the town is misexecuting someone.) However, because consensus is so strong on this person, even if they suspect that the victim is town, they don’t have a way to remedy this stagnant game state.

This is where flash wagons come in. By spicing up the game with a rapidly-formed alternative wagon, you can provide the village with a strong and dynamic alternative to the consensus wagon that you no longer support. Even if your flash wagon does not target a mafia, at the very least it will shake town out of their rut and force them to seriously consider and re-evaluate the game rather than sleepwalking into a misexecution. As mafia, it is important to carefully manipulate the gamestate to lead town into complacency, infighting and other anti-town modes of thought. Similarly, it is important as town to manipulate the gamestate in your favor, and that means fighting against stagnancy and “shrug exes”, where nobody really seems to care about who goes over and just votes some random player who is bad at defending themselves.

Despite these clear benefits, certain delinquents have taken it upon themselves to publicly oppose flash wagons through ignorant reasoning. I will now rebut two of the most common objections against flash wagons.

The first objection is that flash wagons are misguided because the consensus wagon at EOD is bound to be based on a full day phase’s worth of analysis and logic, whereas the flash wagon is based on gut instinct, or a more nebulous sense that is something wrong. Critics of flash wagons sometimes claim that it is “throwing away 48 hours in exchange for 15 minutes”. This objection is wrong. Just because more time was put into coming up with a conclusion does not mean that conclusion is more likely to be correct. Another way to see it is that the mafia have had 48 hours to manipulate you throughout the day phase, but in the heat of the moment during a flash wagon, it is extremely difficult for them to do so. Thus, the “logic” that you engaged in throughout the day phase could easily be misguided, especially in the kinds of stagnant gamestates that flash wagons are most effective in, and should not be automatically considered to be more accurate than your gut instincts.

The second objection is that if a flash wagon hits a townie, it can be disastrous, as the consensus suspect from the previous day phase continues to be unresolved, and town has now lost an extra player, and another one from the nightkill, without moving the game forward or flipping their previous suspect. This, too, stems from a misguided understanding of flash wagons. As explained above, flash wagons provide a bevy of information that easily allow you to progress the game. If you can clear three people for making “unfakeable posts” during a frantic EOD, then you have gained something from the flash wagon, even if it hit a townie. Even the previous consensus suspect that was saved via the flash wagon can be cleared if town collectively realizes that they were the victim of DADV. It is a fallacy to assume that just because an unexpected person was flash wagon and killed that town will simply return to the state it was prior to the flash wagon. The development and context of the flash wagon itself will have likely changed the gamestate, and probably for the better.

I deeply regret ever making that bet with Arete. I'm going to stick to nickname bets from now on.

[RondoDimBuckle]

Spoiler: show

Sticking around in case there is a flash wagon

There should not be a flash wagon. Flash wagoning is bad. Do not do it.

In forum mafia, a flash wagon (formerly known as a “CFD”, although that term has since been deprecated due to racist connotations) is when the composition of a wagon changes dramatically during the final hours or even minutes of a day phase. When a flash wagon occurs, a player that has been at not risk at all throughout the day can be suddenly in danger of being executed, and players that seem to be the go-to execute may suddenly find themselves at zero votes. The phenomenon has been much-maligned as anti-town by players who desire stability and predictability, but these players are wrong. In this essay, I will give three reasons why flash wagons are pro-town – namely, that they create informational imbalances in favor of the town, that they can be used to garner authentic reactions from players, and that they can disrupt undesirably stagnant game states. Then, I will rebut some common but ill-informed objections to flash wagons to prove their superiority as a mafia strategy.

In a normal game of forum mafia (ie. without bastard elements or experimental changes that affect the nature of the game), the town tend to be the uninformed majority, and the mafia tend to be the informed minority. Thus, having more information is the mafia’s strength, while having more raw power is the town’s strength. The mafia do not only have more information in terms of knowing the alignments of each player, but they are also able to coordinate and scheme in mafia chat. Because town players are generally honest about their reads and intentions, this means that the mafia will have a strong idea as to how both town and mafia players will behave, allowing them to predict the outcome of the day, or gauge how certain players will vote. As a result, it is quite common to hear sentiments like “A will probably vote B, so we should leave them alive”, or “X will shield Y as long as we’re alive; if we intend to misexe Y, we should nightkill X” in mafia chat.

Flash wagons, because of their sudden, unpredictable and chaotic nature, upset the informational advantage that the mafia has. They are less able to predict the outcome of a day as long as town holds the threat of a flash wagon over them. In the fast-moving intensity of a flash wagon, a townie may well vote someone that they have listed as a townread, or vote to save someone that they previously scumread, when they would never do so in slower wagon formations. As a result, mafia find it more difficult to coordinate their actions, and find town players more unpredictable and volatile. This unpredictability strips away their informational advantage; mafia are just as lost as the next town player in terms of figuring out what’s going to happen, or what’s going on.

This frantic environment leads us to the next strength of flash wagons: they create situations where authentic reactions can be gathered from players. It is more difficult for mafia to plan out a convincing-looking reaction when they have only a few seconds, rather than minutes or hours, to craft their posts. In contrast, the genuine fluidity of townie thought shines in the hectic context of a flash wagon. Oftentimes, many slots that were generally regarded as suspicious can clear themselves as being town through their “unfakeable” reactions to a flash wagon, while mafia may expose themselves by being stilted or awkward, especially if their plan for the day phase has fallen apart.

This effect is amplified by being able to do vote-count analysis later on in the game. For instance, if a town player is the consensus wagon all day, and a mafia player is suddenly flash wagoned and goes over, then players who unhesitatingly pushed the flash wagon over, and especially the person who started it, may be cleared from that through vote-count analysis later on in the game. Conversely, even if a mafia player was on the chopping block and a town player gets flash wagoned to save them, the identities of the remaining mafia members can often be exposed by examining who appeared to be overly enthusiastic for the flash wagon.

The final advantage of flash wagons is that it allows town to shake-up an otherwise stagnant game state. Often, townies experience an eerie feeling that there is too much consensus about the person being voted out, questioning why the mafia members are so happy to let a teammate swing. (This is known as “Dead Air Dead Villager”, or DADV, and is a highly accurate tell that the town is misexecuting someone.) However, because consensus is so strong on this person, even if they suspect that the victim is town, they don’t have a way to remedy this stagnant game state.

This is where flash wagons come in. By spicing up the game with a rapidly-formed alternative wagon, you can provide the village with a strong and dynamic alternative to the consensus wagon that you no longer support. Even if your flash wagon does not target a mafia, at the very least it will shake town out of their rut and force them to seriously consider and re-evaluate the game rather than sleepwalking into a misexecution. As mafia, it is important to carefully manipulate the gamestate to lead town into complacency, infighting and other anti-town modes of thought. Similarly, it is important as town to manipulate the gamestate in your favor, and that means fighting against stagnancy and “shrug exes”, where nobody really seems to care about who goes over and just votes some random player who is bad at defending themselves.

Despite these clear benefits, certain delinquents have taken it upon themselves to publicly oppose flash wagons through ignorant reasoning. I will now rebut two of the most common objections against flash wagons.

The first objection is that flash wagons are misguided because the consensus wagon at EOD is bound to be based on a full day phase’s worth of analysis and logic, whereas the flash wagon is based on gut instinct, or a more nebulous sense that is something wrong. Critics of flash wagons sometimes claim that it is “throwing away 48 hours in exchange for 15 minutes”. This objection is wrong. Just because more time was put into coming up with a conclusion does not mean that conclusion is more likely to be correct. Another way to see it is that the mafia have had 48 hours to manipulate you throughout the day phase, but in the heat of the moment during a flash wagon, it is extremely difficult for them to do so. Thus, the “logic” that you engaged in throughout the day phase could easily be misguided, especially in the kinds of stagnant gamestates that flash wagons are most effective in, and should not be automatically considered to be more accurate than your gut instincts.

The second objection is that if a flash wagon hits a townie, it can be disastrous, as the consensus suspect from the previous day phase continues to be unresolved, and town has now lost an extra player, and another one from the nightkill, without moving the game forward or flipping their previous suspect. This, too, stems from a misguided understanding of flash wagons. As explained above, flash wagons provide a bevy of information that easily allow you to progress the game. If you can clear three people for making “unfakeable posts” during a frantic EOD, then you have gained something from the flash wagon, even if it hit a townie. Even the previous consensus suspect that was saved via the flash wagon can be cleared if town collectively realizes that they were the victim of DADV. It is a fallacy to assume that just because an unexpected person was flash wagon and killed that town will simply return to the state it was prior to the flash wagon. The development and context of the flash wagon itself will have likely changed the gamestate, and probably for the better.

Im reading this later, my eyes hurt

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Parting message:

I think that this has been a positive start to the game. The collective hunt is active, and it is thorough. More importantly though, the climate of the game thread has been very amenable to teamwork and to the care needed to have a decent shot in mountainous. Please strive to maintain that at all times regardless of today's flip or any future flip. Moreover, the single-most important factor that I would cite as a contributor to town's failures in this setup for the champs season has been a perception that "X player must be resolved" -- whether it's due to interactions with mafia, or because of wagon formations, or whatever else. It is imperative that we do not adopt this approach as a town team, and that at all times we try our very best to treat the game with as a difficult process that requires work and thinking. Always continue to think about reads, game state, and your own methodology, and avoid treating anyone in this thread the same way you would treat someone who has been red-peeked by a cop. I saw way too much of that in champs qualifiers, and it's so damaging. Everyone has a voice, including people in the POE.

I have strong town reads on Boquise, Mac, Alison, and lucy. I think you can take those with some measure of confidence if I am not here moving forward. Reassess and challenge as necessary and as appropriate, but also do your best to avoid unjustified paranoia. Collaboration is the way, and that starts by finding townies.

Keep it up, folks.

[Creature]

I'm really struggling to understand how Creature goes from "falcon is probably town, and once he flips town we'll have to re-eval all our reads tomorrow because mafia is probably snowing us all under" to "eh I'm fine with it, we had to sort him at some point anyway".

@Creature To be clear what is your read on falcon? Do you think they will flip town and if so what are your reasons for townreading him?

I don't remember ever townreading falcon besides maybe thinking gamestate could point towards him being town.

[Marmot]

Sticking around in case there is a flash wagon

There should not be a flash wagon. Flash wagoning is bad. Do not do it.

Just because its bad doesnt mean it wont happen. I have seen a game weal from a "Certain mafia pick" to some random no poster in the last 60 seconds

Since I am here I may as well keep an eye on it

Sticking around in case there is a flash wagon

I appreciate you

(don't let them flashwagon me plz)

I appreciate you too, even if I might vote for you in the future. Really I want ender to make it to day 2 because I know he is a popular day 1 for wolves and if he is a wolf I can read him more with more content

I know I've played with Ender once or twice, but I can't recall his gameplay at all, but that'll be a discussion I'm interested in having Day 2, including why he's a popular Day 1 elim.

But falcon is too fwiw, and here we are.

[Creature]

Parting message:

I think that this has been a positive start to the game. The collective hunt is active, and it is thorough. More importantly though, the climate of the game thread has been very amenable to teamwork and to the care needed to have a decent shot in mountainous. Please strive to maintain that at all times regardless of today's flip or any future flip. Moreover, the single-most important factor that I would cite as a contributor to town's failures in this setup for the champs season has been a perception that "X player must be resolved" -- whether it's due to interactions with mafia, or because of wagon formations, or whatever else. It is imperative that we do not adopt this approach as a town team, and that at all times we try our very best to treat the game with as a difficult process that requires work and thinking. Always continue to think about reads, game state, and your own methodology, and avoid treating anyone in this thread the same way you would treat someone who has been red-peeked by a cop. I saw way too much of that in champs qualifiers, and it's so damaging. Everyone has a voice, including people in the POE.

I have strong town reads on Boquise, Mac, Alison, and lucy. I think you can take those with some measure of confidence if I am not here moving forward. Reassess and challenge as necessary and as appropriate, but also do your best to avoid unjustified paranoia. Collaboration is the way, and that starts by finding townies.

Keep it up, folks.

Watch us repeat the same Champs mistakes.

[Marmot]

Parting message:

I think that this has been a positive start to the game. The collective hunt is active, and it is thorough. More importantly though, the climate of the game thread has been very amenable to teamwork and to the care needed to have a decent shot in mountainous. Please strive to maintain that at all times regardless of today's flip or any future flip. Moreover, the single-most important factor that I would cite as a contributor to town's failures in this setup for the champs season has been a perception that "X player must be resolved" -- whether it's due to interactions with mafia, or because of wagon formations, or whatever else. It is imperative that we do not adopt this approach as a town team, and that at all times we try our very best to treat the game with as a difficult process that requires work and thinking. Always continue to think about reads, game state, and your own methodology, and avoid treating anyone in this thread the same way you would treat someone who has been red-peeked by a cop. I saw way too much of that in champs qualifiers, and it's so damaging. Everyone has a voice, including people in the POE.

I have strong town reads on Boquise, Mac, Alison, and lucy. I think you can take those with some measure of confidence if I am not here moving forward. Reassess and challenge as necessary and as appropriate, but also do your best to avoid unjustified paranoia. Collaboration is the way, and that starts by finding townies.

Keep it up, folks.

Tell me you townread me.