Dr. Who Mafia - Night 12

[Chris]

inb4 Chris and Epig are teammates.

[Tangrowth]

Whatever, I disagree. I think Bass is recruited and potentially Cyber to boot.

We'll see

Linki~ Um, no. I voted right out of the gate because I don't want us to get distracted from who that last switch saved: Bass.

This.

Also, Chris, there are reasons we all voted Bass yesterday. It isn't because of some grand conspiracy. It's because he's SUSPICIOUS. Which is funny to try to point out to the individual who uncovered much of his suspicious behavior. Why have you changed your mind?

Can we get an early lynch here? :P

How ironic is this post? Yeah, he put a ":p"... but I think he's just trying to subliminally say "Bass is so clearly the choice, that we should just end this formal process early."

But what I think he's trying to do is avoid anyone tying to bring up anything or anyone (DFaraday) else.

I'm not trying to subliminally say anything, that's exactly what I'm saying.

Do you actually think Bass is not bad?

And why would I want to bring up DFaraday? I already told keys earlier I was reading him as a civ, and then he survived an NK on N8, which made me feel I was right.

[Chris]

I haven't changed my mind on Bass. I'm still sure he's bad. But I think DF is The Master, and I think you know DF is The Master (since he's on your recruited team). So you want to make sure that we all vote Bass, a baddie, and not DF, your recruited teammate The Master.

You are trying to avoid any DF talk today.

[Tangrowth]

I have no idea if DF is The Master, but I don't think he is. If you think he is, I can understand your desire to lynch him. I promise I'll consider him in a future lynch more seriously, but right now I just think the simplest explanation for him is that he's a civvie, and I really want to catch a Cyber today, preferably a recruited one.

[Tangrowth]

Yes DF. Unfortunately, I can only use the quick reply feature to post because of the Internet filter here. In a nutshell: Allowing for two specific assumptions, I have the Master narrowed down to one of four(!) people. Only you and one other person survived a NK, and I don't think the other person who survived a NK is The Master. Coincidentally, you are a possible Cyberman according to my spreadsheet, and the Cyber Controller could also explain your survival. Therefore, I think you should be lynched.

Chris, if either you or Epig can expand upon this or why you think DF is the Master, I'll be more than happy to listen. So far the only evidence I've seen are his NK survival, which I already have a reason to believe would be explained sufficiently by him being civ, and his "blendy" voting, which is characteristic of DF. He's never a particularly outspoken player with unconventional cases.

[Dom]

Things that must be true for what Chris is saying to be true:
-DFaraday is the Master
-MP is recruited
-DFaraday is recruited
-Bass is not recruited
-Bass is a Cyberman and MP knows this

I'm not saying it's not true, but it's a lot of assumptions to be making.

[Chris]

Dom, if we lynch Bass today, he'll come up as the role blocker.

but DF still has 2 saves left, and then he's got to be killed one more time. That's a lot of attention to one role. With the recruiters slowly inching their way toward majority, we kind of have to act now. There's not really time to wait to make sure IMO.

And it's more than just lynching him again if he survives this lynch. There's a bevy shit shit that will hit the fan afterward.

Honestly, the civs and Cybers need to join up to get this done IMO.

The enemy of my enemy and all that shit.

[DFaraday]

@ zeek: I do think DF was recruited. I think MP was recruited night 7, and DF was recruited night 9.

Hang on, your theory is that I was just recruited, and yet your case on me earlier was focusing on everything I did prior to last night. So to be clear: Your case on me is that I'm the Master (despite absolutely no evidence for that notion except that I survived a kill which specifically allows civvies to survive), and that I was recruited by some other team (which makes no sense from an in-show or an in-game standpoint; the nigh invincible, last-man-standing SK can get recruited? Really?).

On to particular points: You point out how I suspected Elo because of her night poll choice, but "oddly" suspects Daisy of suspecting me for tha same thing. As I explained ad nauseam, my issue there was that I don't overthink the choices on night polls, and Daisy seemed fixated on the idea that since I am a Doctor Who fan, I would have examined each choice in-depth (despite the fact that I hadn't seen any of the serials in question; the show has been on for 50 years, y'all). You are twisting the situation to make a case, something you really do a lot of.

And yes, I typically agree with other people's suspicions. If they're valid, why wouldn't I? I'm not the type of player to go aggressively searching for any inconsistency or comment that could potentially be a hint of baddieness, I tend to lie low and when people make their cases, I point out the ones I agree with. Yes, it does seem blendy, but as has been said, that's how I ALWAYS play. SVS was in my very first game, she knows as well as anyone that this is my style. It almost invariably gets me killed in mid to late game.

Also Chris, if you're so sure I'm the Master, why are you focusing on me? I mean, I'll just survive if you try to lynch me, so why bother, right?

SVS: You're right about MP vouching for you, that had completely skipped my mind. That does move you up in my estimation.

[juliets]

Chris, I'm as sure as i can be that you are civ so I'm certainly willing to listen to what you have to say. After all, you got me to really look at bass and I became as sure as I can be that he is bad.

I will read through DF's posts and take a look at whatever you and Epig bring to the table today about DF. My problem, as you know, is I like to look at things from all sides and it takes me a bit of time to get comfortable with there being enough evidence to call someone bad. The tug here will be that a vote for bass is seductive because I feel so strongly he is bad and a vote for DF right now for me would be a leap of faith. Like I said though, I have an open mind to your thoughts and will look at him more closely.

DF on another subject, what would cause you to say you see me as possibly bad before you've even read all my posts? What have I done or said that causes you to feel that way?

linki DF will read after posting

[DFaraday]

Chris, I'm as sure as i can be that you are civ so I'm certainly willing to listen to what you have to say. After all, you got me to really look at bass and I became as sure as I can be that he is bad.

I will read through DF's posts and take a look at whatever you and Epig bring to the table today about DF. My problem, as you know, is I like to look at things from all sides and it takes me a bit of time to get comfortable with there being enough evidence to call someone bad. The tug here will be that a vote for bass is seductive because I feel so strongly he is bad and a vote for DF right now for me would be a leap of faith. Like I said though, I have an open mind to your thoughts and will look at him more closely.

DF on another subject, what would cause you to say you see me as possibly bad before you've even read all my posts? What have I done or said that causes you to feel that way?

linki DF will read after posting

JC, I don't think you're a Cyberman. I thought the idea that you were the Master was a possibility, mainly because there aren't that many roles left and someone has to be. I do still think it's a possibility, but upon reviewing your posts, I don't find anything to actually support my claims. So it's just a numbers-based theory, nothing more.

[Chris]

@ zeek: I do think DF was recruited. I think MP was recruited night 7, and DF was recruited night 9.

Hang on, your theory is that I was just recruited, and yet your case on me earlier was focusing on everything I did prior to last night. (Yes, that's my case. The two things you refer to are not mutually exclusive of each other. Yes, I think you're The Master. And yes, I think you were recruited. Furthermore, I think you were recruited because you are The Master. ) So to be clear: Your case on me is that I'm the Master (despite absolutely no evidence for that notion except that I survived a kill which specifically allows civvies to survive), and that I was recruited by some other team (which makes no sense from an in-show or an in-game standpoint; the nigh invincible, last-man-standing SK can get recruited? Really?). ( So, The Master, just like The Doctor (MP) are roles that are unrecruitable. LOL! When does keys say that he as a player is unrecruitable? As far as evidence that you are The Master... hang on. I'm working on it. )

On to particular points: You point out how I suspected Elo because of her night poll choice, but "oddly" suspects Daisy of suspecting me for tha same thing. As I explained ad nauseam, my issue there was that I don't overthink the choices on night polls, and Daisy seemed fixated on the idea that since I am a Doctor Who fan, I would have examined each choice in-depth (despite the fact that I hadn't seen any of the serials in question; the show has been on for 50 years, y'all). You are twisting the situation to make a case, something you really do a lot of. (No, I was saying that at least back then, you made an opinion, and then voted someone based on it. As for Daisy, I just thought it was ironic that you voted Elo for it, and then found it wrong that Daisy voted you for it. I also thought it pointed out the irony of your own vote for Elo)

And yes, I typically agree with other people's suspicions. If they're valid, why wouldn't I? I'm not the type of player to go aggressively searching for any inconsistency or comment that could potentially be a hint of baddieness, I tend to lie low and when people make their cases, I point out the ones I agree with. Yes, it does seem blendy, but as has been said, that's how I ALWAYS play. SVS was in my very first game, she knows as well as anyone that this is my style. It almost invariably gets me killed in mid to late game. (Blendy is blendy. If that's how you always play, it sucks. Because it makes you suspicious. But playing that way certainly doesn't make you innocent of playing the exact way a Indy killer would play. )

Also Chris, if you're so sure I'm the Master, why are you focusing on me? I mean, I'll just survive if you try to lynch me, so why bother, right? ( That's just funny )

SVS: You're right about MP vouching for you, that had completely skipped my mind. That does move you up in my estimation.

Oh, more reasons to believe each other.

The Three Amigos!

[juliets]

Thank you for your response DF. I understand now.

[Chris]

Chris, I'm as sure as i can be that you are civ so I'm certainly willing to listen to what you have to say. After all, you got me to really look at bass and I became as sure as I can be that he is bad.

I will read through DF's posts and take a look at whatever you and Epig bring to the table today about DF. My problem, as you know, is I like to look at things from all sides and it takes me a bit of time to get comfortable with there being enough evidence to call someone bad. The tug here will be that a vote for bass is seductive because I feel so strongly he is bad and a vote for DF right now for me would be a leap of faith. Like I said though, I have an open mind to your thoughts and will look at him more closely.

DF on another subject, what would cause you to say you see me as possibly bad before you've even read all my posts? What have I done or said that causes you to feel that way?

linki DF will read after posting

Jules... I'm all for a Bass vote. And before today, that's where I would have lead. But The Master is going to be so difficult to get rid of, I think prudence is the main factor at this point. That's outside of the fact that I think he was recruited.

Start with asking yourself why TH was needed for that switch? Why not switch it to DF? That's all it took for me to see it.

[DFaraday]

Chris, I'm as sure as i can be that you are civ so I'm certainly willing to listen to what you have to say. After all, you got me to really look at bass and I became as sure as I can be that he is bad.

I will read through DF's posts and take a look at whatever you and Epig bring to the table today about DF. My problem, as you know, is I like to look at things from all sides and it takes me a bit of time to get comfortable with there being enough evidence to call someone bad. The tug here will be that a vote for bass is seductive because I feel so strongly he is bad and a vote for DF right now for me would be a leap of faith. Like I said though, I have an open mind to your thoughts and will look at him more closely.

DF on another subject, what would cause you to say you see me as possibly bad before you've even read all my posts? What have I done or said that causes you to feel that way?

linki DF will read after posting

Jules... I'm all for a Bass vote. And before today, that's where I would have lead. But The Master is going to be so difficult to get rid of, I think prudence is the main factor at this point. That's outside of the fact that I think he was recruited.

Start with asking yourself why TH was needed for that switch? Why not switch it to DF? That's all it took for me to see it.

So if it had been switched to me instead of TH, would you be going after him today?

[Chris]

No, because you would have survived.

[Dom]

Dom, if we lynch Bass today, he'll come up as the role blocker.

but DF still has 2 saves left, and then he's got to be killed one more time. That's a lot of attention to one role. With the recruiters slowly inching their way toward majority, we kind of have to act now. There's not really time to wait to make sure IMO.

And it's more than just lynching him again if he survives this lynch. There's a bevy shit shit that will hit the fan afterward.

Honestly, the civs and Cybers need to join up to get this done IMO.

The enemy of my enemy and all that shit.

This did nothing to address anything in my post.

Why is DFaraday the master for surviving one NK (that civvies have the chance to survive), when there are roles out there that have survivals... why is this any different than you surviving two NKs in the same night?
Why are we lynching the Master at all-- as DFaraday said, your philosophy is to ignore him since he'll survive anyway.

I do not understand your logic because you have none.

[Chris]

Roles that can survive NKs:

Rose Tyler - Black Rock
Amy Pond or Rory Williams - Long Con
Jack Harkness - Chris
Sarah Jane Smith - Elo
Cyber Controller - Unknown. Could possibly be DF, but I really don't think so.

The Master - DFaraday

How did Dana survive? MP (The Doctor) used "Day of Sunshine" on night 7, when wasn't recruited. Then on day 8, no civs could be lynched. Sabie, a Cyber, was lynched. On night 8, the "DoS" prevented Dana from being killed. It did not stop DF from being killed by Strax, nor did Stax's inability to kill the first three civs.

DF survived because he is The Master.

How am I so certain that Dana is a civ? Prior to MP's death (and recruitment), he vouched for Dana hard, even though she wasn't playing. Now we know that MP is The Doctor. BR had also expressed confidence in MP. That was what made me think that she was the lie detector. But then she survived a kill attempt from the Daleks. In the night post, it didn't sound like a protection. We assumed that it was a block. But if Rose Tyler just simply can not be killed by the Daleks, then the post written that way makes sense. BR didn't have to do anything, they can't (couldn't) kill her.

Anyay, we all know that when there's a baddie teammate not playing, the teammates hound the hosts to get them replaced. It's not set in stone, but it's logic. Baddies bug the hosts for a replacement, civs without teammates sit. And in Dana's case, she sat for a while.

But notice when I brought up the idea of voting Dana out, MP went ballistic. There was NO WAY that she was getting voted out. Why? Well, of course he knew she was civvie, since he found her. (He had to have found three companions to get the "DoS") And he was not recruited at the time.

But then, yesteday, when I went off on my tirade about Dana not playing, and said something about her being modkilled, there were no objections from MP. Odd, right?


Now, for some set up.

I still believe that SVS recruited keys and MP. I was thinking that they would have wanted to recruit the Cyber team for their kill and extra votes. And for a while, it seemed as if that's the route they were going to go. But now... something changed. And I think what changed is they found The Master. Just like I stumbled on something that made me feel that DF is The Master, so did they. Instead of recruiting a Cyber night 9, I think they recruited DFaraday. Why? He has a kill, and can survvive two more kills, and he has that radomize powers thing.

So the way I see it is like this... we all have one chance to get this right. And I think it can only go one way.

If we lynch DF today, and he is The Master, he'll survive. That's 2 protections used, one left.

Tonight, Strax and/or the Cybers will target DF. DF will then use his randomizing power, avoiding both NK attempts. It's going to hurt, and I can only hope I'm one of the ones who gets redirected at.

Then on day 11, we have to lynch DF again. That will use up his last protection.

Then we need to rely on the Cybers to target him one last time. The Master will target someone, most likely an unrecruited civvie.

But like pulling off a band aid, it's best to do it fast, and get it over with.

Then maybe the Cybers and the civs then go to work on the recruitment team...



My point is, it will be very difficult for the civs or Team Cyber to win this with The Master AND the recruiting team alive. And it will be damn near impossible to win if the recruitment team has recruited The Master.

I know keys and MP will come in and say how ridiculous this case is, and DF will go on and on about how just because he survived a NK, it doesn't mean he's The Master. But think of how quiet a game DF has been playing. I honestly forgot he was playing for a little while. And, what civ roles are left that can survive? None.

And no one has vouched for DF. Not like what has been happening a little while ago.

That's the way I'd play a role like The Master. Play quiet. Get deep. By the time they figure out who you are, you'll have too many lives left to get rid of you.

That's the EXACT way I'd play it.

And if DF dies after he's targeted for a NK or he's lynched, then that could only mean that Elo or myself are The Master. I know it would be better assumed that I am The Master after that. And if people would want to lynch me for it, I would understand. I'd just ask that someone target me with a NK, and then lynch me. Just so I can show you that I'm not The Master, and then you'd have to go after Elo.

But TH vouched for Elo, and I don't really think she's The Master. None of the baddie teams went after her. And there wasn't a lynch switch that didn't go to her, like it had for DF.

I think the time to strike is now. For if not now, I fear we won't get another chance...

[Chris]

That's it folks. I worked on that all night and morning.

That's my swan song. I tapped out. I have nothing left.

I'll try to answer any questions, but I'm undoubtedly going to be slammed by a certain few, and I'll probably opt to just sit out of the thread, rather than shit it up with my over the top responses.

I tried my best to organize these thoughts, and not sound ranty.

I of course make some assumptions that lead me to areas. I"m not guaranteeing it correct, but I think it's right. That's my opinion, and I'm sticking to it until I see something that proves me wrong.

[DFaraday]

Chris, your case against me is starting to sound an awful lot like "DF is the Master because DF is the Master". You say very certainly that I did not survive Strax's kill because I'm a civvie, yet you don't say why that couldn't possibly be the case. Yes, I'm going to keep bringing that up, because it's what happened.

EBWOP: I guess we've reached an impasse then.

[Chris]

DF, only me, you or Elo can be The Master.

[Marmot]

DF, only me, you or Elo can be The Master.

What about the players who haven't had the opportunity to survive a kill?

[Tangrowth]

Chris, I understand better, thanks for elaborating!

I get it now.

Chris's theory extrapolated above (as well as many of his throughout the game) is strictly one of positivist science:

1) A theory should be judged on its ability to predict, not on explaining what individuals should do.
2) A theory cannot be tested by the realism of its assumptions. Therefore, the assumptions made in developing the theory can be as numerous and unrealistic as one can imagine, but as long as the theory has proven predictive power, the theory is sound. This is because...
3) All theories by nature are unrealistic. Truly important hypotheses will almost always have assumptions that are wildly inaccurate descriptions of reality.

Thus, it matters not whether a theory really describes how individuals make decisions, only that the theory predicts the decision made.

Even though I agree with you that Bass is bad, it is interesting to note the push towards him and the fact that DFaraday has gone all game without serious scrutiny until recently. Now I know you're wrong about me, BUT I'm willing to put some faith in you, Chris, to see if your theory possesses predictive power.

switches vote to DFaraday

Only Logan will probably laugh at this.

[Marmot]

switches vote to DFaraday

I think Chris predicted this too.

[Tangrowth]

switches vote to DFaraday

I think Chris predicted this too.

It's all the more reason normative theories should go to hell.

Positivism forever!!!

[zeek]

DF, only me, you or Elo can be The Master.

What about the players who haven't had the opportunity to survive a kill?

While I agree with your questioning of Chris' assertion here, I find it curious you're casting doubt on it given they are the three most likely suspects. Trying to protect your Master?

[keys56000000000]

I've suspected DF for a while now, so if people want to vote him, that's fine with me. I'm sticking with Bass because I think the most likely scenario is that he's bad and was saved via lynch switch.

SVS MP and I voted Bass early to save DF? I'm the one who has been bringing up DF, now I want to save him? Chris you are bonkers.

[Marmot]

DF, only me, you or Elo can be The Master.

What about the players who haven't had the opportunity to survive a kill?

While I agree with your questioning of Chris' assertion here, I find it curious you're casting doubt on it given they are the three most likely suspects. Trying to protect your Master?

I'm trying to find the Master as much as you are.

[Chris]

What was it that you suspected him for again keys?

His play was "too perfect"?

And I'm bonkers...

[keys56000000000]

What was it that you suspected him for again keys?

His play was "too perfect"?

And I'm bonkers...

Bonkers and apparently retarded, yes.

[Chris]

What was it that you suspected him for again keys?

His play was "too perfect"?

And I'm bonkers...

Bonkers and apparently retarded, yes.

[keys56000000000]

[Dom]

seriously?

[zeek]

This thread is hilarious.

[Chris]

Chris, I understand better, thanks for elaborating!

I get it now.

Chris's theory extrapolated above (as well as many of his throughout the game) is strictly one of positivist science:

1) A theory should be judged on its ability to predict, not on explaining what individuals should do.
2) A theory cannot be tested by the realism of its assumptions. Therefore, the assumptions made in developing the theory can be as numerous and unrealistic as one can imagine, but as long as the theory has proven predictive power, the theory is sound. This is because...
3) All theories by nature are unrealistic. Truly important hypotheses will almost always have assumptions that are wildly inaccurate descriptions of reality.

Thus, it matters not whether a theory really describes how individuals make decisions, only that the theory predicts the decision made.

Even though I agree with you that Bass is bad, it is interesting to note the push towards him and the fact that DFaraday has gone all game without serious scrutiny until recently. Now I know you're wrong about me, BUT I'm willing to put some faith in you, Chris, to see if your theory possesses predictive power.

switches vote to DFaraday

Only Logan will probably laugh at this.

Or...

Inductive reasoning is reasoning in which the premises seek to supply strong evidence for (not absolute proof of) the truth of the conclusion.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inductive_reasoning

A statistical syllogism is an example of inductive reasoning:

Almost all people are taller than 26 inches
Gareth is a person
Therefore, Gareth is almost certainly taller than 26 inches
As a stronger example:

100% of biological life forms that we know of depend on liquid water to exist.
Therefore, if we discover a new biological life form it will probably depend on liquid water to exist.

This argument could have been made every time a new biological life form was found, and would have been correct every time; however, it is still possible that in the future a biological life form not requiring water could be discovered.

As a result, the argument may be stated less formally as:

All biological life forms that we know of depend on liquid water to exist.
All biological life probably depends on liquid water to exist.

[Tangrowth]

Well, considering Friedman's application of logical positivism to economics is strongly reliant on inductive reasoning, I wouldn't argue with that one bit!

How positive are you in DF being The Master, Chris?

[Chris]

Of course, with some deductive reasoning thrown in... the votes don't lie and shit.

[Chris]

How positive are you in DF being The Master, Chris?

Considering that I think there's no more roles that can explain NK survivals, DF is either The Master or The Cyber Controller. In that aspect, it's win win.

Now, as far as how positive I am... I know I'm not The Master. The reduces it to Elo and DF. That makes it 50/50.

Then you go into reading, gut, vouching, the small shit. That pushes it to maybe 72/25.

Then you take the fact that the switch didn't go to DF, when it could have until you voted for TH 30 minutes before the poll, and that starts to make me feel pretty fucking sure.

Can I be wrong? ABSOLUTELY! But if I am, then it's got to be Elo.

Or me... but I know who I am. But I've already offered myself up in recompense for being wrong. Knowing I'm a civ, that's of little help, but if you lynch me, and I am who I say I am, then it can only be Elo.

All of the roles secrets are revealed. I don't see any other way for someone to survive. The people I have plugged into those roles are very likely correct in my opinion.

[zeek]

I think you're ignoring the Strax factor here, Chris, but I may be willing to switch because they both may be bad. Problem I have is DF has played such a "blendy" game that there's not much to back up the possibility of him being the lead cyber or master.

[Chris]

It was acceptable, somewhat, to ignore the Strax factor when I survived 2 NKs. But it played.

I'm maintaining that Strax still has a civ kill save. And The Master lost one protection.

And Strax obviously thought he was bad enough to target...

[Tangrowth]

How positive are you in DF being The Master, Chris?

Considering that I think there's no more roles that can explain NK survivals, DF is either The Master or The Cyber Controller. In that aspect, it's win win.

Now, as far as how positive I am... I know I'm not The Master. The reduces it to Elo and DF. That makes it 50/50.

Then you go into reading, gut, vouching, the small shit. That pushes it to maybe 72/25.

Then you take the fact that the switch didn't go to DF, when it could have until you voted for TH 30 minutes before the poll, and that starts to make me feel pretty fucking sure.

Can I be wrong? ABSOLUTELY! But if I am, then it's got to be Elo.

Or me... but I know who I am. But I've already offered myself up in recompense for being wrong. Knowing I'm a civ, that's of little help, but if you lynch me, and I am who I say I am, then it can only be Elo.

All of the roles secrets are revealed. I don't see any other way for someone to survive. The people I have plugged into those roles are very likely correct in my opinion.

This makes sense. I actually agreed with some of your role plugging, not all of it though.

The fact that Elo has disappeared completely too does make me wonder. I've just been assuming she's a civvie this whole time, but when she survived her NK didn't she just say something like 'civvies have ways to survive NKs too, don't they?' or something to that effect?

I'm glad you still think Bass is bad because I was confused thinking why you hadn't been gunning after him anymore. I obviously think he's bad too. But after you posted your theory I thought about it and I do realize that we have to nab The Master. I don't know if The Master can be recruited or not, or if he is, but if he is, then that's dangerous as hell.

I do think it would be nice to get rid of Bass, but considering everyone is in agreement about him, I reconsidered and maybe it would be better to try to get some information regarding The Master today, since that would be more valuable -- and there's just as much a chance The Master could be recruited as a Cyber, right? Assuming they both are factions/roles that are eligible to be recruited.

Now I thought about my read on DF and I've frankly just been assuming he's a civvie based on gut read and I thought his surviving the Strax kill on Night 8 specifically would point toward him being a civvie more strongly, but you're right in that if he is The Master, he would have survived too.

If you really feel positive that DF is the best bet, and since Epig seems to be agreement (still waiting on a more comprehensive case from him though), I'm willing to trust your assessment and put my vote that way, unless we come up with something better. My problem I was having with your theory before is that I know I haven't been recruited, so I was fixating on that part of your analysis as wrong, thereby making your whole analysis wrong, since I know it's false. However, just because that assumption is false doesn't mean your theory isn't adequately predictive. Additionally, maybe DF has played the perfect Master game here. Yes, he usually is pretty quiet, but he does offer unique insight more when he's civvie, and I thought maybe this was happening here, but then I thought about his votes and opinions and I'm not sure I see it. Also, since we are getting closer to endgame, The Master probably is of one of the highest priorities.

So all of that combined, I'm honestly leaning more on trying to pull out The Master and then taking out the remaining highly suspected Cybers once we've done that. Because once The Master is exposed, surely the Cybers will want to rid him, so they'll NK him too, making him easier to get rid of. I would think anyway.

All this to say I'm willing to see what kind of predictive ability your theory has in finding us The Master. I'm really hoping it holds up.

[Chris]

And before anyone brings it up, I'll allow that Strax may be playing loose and fast with is targets because of the civ save.

It may be why Strax targeted me. Or maybe they thought that I was bad.

[Tangrowth]

Two other thoughts as well, Chris (and others), let me know what you think:

1) Strax could take out one of the suspected Cybers at night too tonight, couldn't he? Or even The Master if we try to lynch DF and it fails.
2) Didn't BR say something about DF being bad? I'll have to look back at that. But I just thought that BR was killed by The Master last night, so that's interesting if so.

[Marmot]

It was acceptable, somewhat, to ignore the Strax factor when I survived 2 NKs. But it played.

I'm maintaining that Strax still has a civ kill save. And The Master lost one protection.

And Strax obviously thought he was bad enough to target...

But per what TH said yesterday, Strax may not have intended to try and kill DF. More than one player has stated that they think that night actions were redirected on Night 8, meaning that Strax targeted someone else originally. I'm not dicounting your story that DF survived based on his own ability, but I don't think Strax targeted him intentionally.

[Tangrowth]

I voted for Bass. I am suspicious of DFaraday but somethings and given me pause on him so I am going to revisit that tomorrow.

I thought I remembered her mentioning DF.

Apparently she wasn't too sure of it though.

[Chris]

Two other thoughts as well, Chris (and others), let me know what you think:

1) Strax could take out one of the suspected Cybers at night too tonight, couldn't he? Or even The Master if we try to lynch DF and it fails.
2) Didn't BR say something about DF being bad? I'll have to look back at that. But I just thought that BR was killed by The Master last night, so that's interesting if so.

1. He could, but I think The Master will activate his randomizer tonight.
2. She did, and I quoted it, and yes, it was right before he killed her.

[Tangrowth]

It was acceptable, somewhat, to ignore the Strax factor when I survived 2 NKs. But it played.

I'm maintaining that Strax still has a civ kill save. And The Master lost one protection.

And Strax obviously thought he was bad enough to target...

But per what TH said yesterday, Strax may not have intended to try and kill DF. More than one player has stated that they think that night actions were redirected on Night 8, meaning that Strax targeted someone else originally. I'm not dicounting your story that DF survived based on his own ability, but I don't think Strax targeted him intentionally.

Oh, this is a good point.

But why would Strax target DF in the first place anyway? I don't remember many people crusading DF as bad strongly enough to feel that positive in NKing him.

So it may be more likely that it was an accident.

[Epignosis]

Considering that I think there's no more roles that can explain NK survivals, DF is either The Master or The Cyber Controller. In that aspect, it's win win.

Now, as far as how positive I am... I know I'm not The Master. The reduces it to Elo and DF. That makes it 50/50.

You're beginning to scare me, Chris...

[Tangrowth]

Two other thoughts as well, Chris (and others), let me know what you think:

1) Strax could take out one of the suspected Cybers at night too tonight, couldn't he? Or even The Master if we try to lynch DF and it fails.
2) Didn't BR say something about DF being bad? I'll have to look back at that. But I just thought that BR was killed by The Master last night, so that's interesting if so.

1. He could, but I think The Master will activate his randomizer tonight.
2. She did, and I quoted it, and yes, it was right before he killed her.

Isn't the theory that it was activated previously though?

[Tangrowth]

Considering that I think there's no more roles that can explain NK survivals, DF is either The Master or The Cyber Controller. In that aspect, it's win win.

Now, as far as how positive I am... I know I'm not The Master. The reduces it to Elo and DF. That makes it 50/50.

You're beginning to scare me, Chris...

Why's this?

I thought you dropped your suspicion of Chris being The Master.

[Chris]

It was acceptable, somewhat, to ignore the Strax factor when I survived 2 NKs. But it played.

I'm maintaining that Strax still has a civ kill save. And The Master lost one protection.

And Strax obviously thought he was bad enough to target...

But per what TH said yesterday, Strax may not have intended to try and kill DF. More than one player has stated that they think that night actions were redirected on Night 8, meaning that Strax targeted someone else originally. I'm not dicounting your story that DF survived based on his own ability, but I don't think Strax targeted him intentionally.

Could be MM, but TH was Jackie. He had no real info on what happened. But if you're right, then maybe Strax didn't intend for it to hit him, yes. THen that would mean that the Cybers could target him tonight.

And since we're all fairly sure about Bass, Strax could target him tonight. And if I'm right, Strax has a civ save left. So he could target a questionable player just as easily I suppose, to help make sure that a civ isn't killed.

I'm not one to tell a player what to do with his/her kill...