Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]

[NateTheLesser]

I love you for those screenshots btw

o7

[Boquise]

my 100% Mac read accuracy keeps rolling tbh

[Boquise]

I think Marmot is town. And that's probably the extent of my useful contribution right now.

Explain tbh

[Boquise]

I'm down.

Thank you.

One line of investigation that may be obvious but still doesn't tend to get the dedicated, systematic analysis it warrants is to individually assess the votes on the large mischop wagon of Day 1. We have a bunch of people who took part in that wagon who were all responsible for justifying their participation somehow. If we examine the full progression of each voter on their falcon reads we can try to determine with some reasonable degree of depth their sincerity.

I will likely do this myself, but two sets of eyes are better than one.

I can take a look on this when I have time. You should also add me in this analysis since I scum leaned Falcon tbh

[Boquise]

I think Marmot is town. And that's probably the extent of my useful contribution right now.

What inspires you most about our dear local rodent

That he cared to switch off of Falcon at EoD. A collection of good posts, his fluffy and adorable hair, and my well known god read on him.

[Boquise]

G-Man didn't save the final vote count which is annoying. iirc Falcon was a pretty large runaway wagon with low accountability; I'd expect mafia to either casually pile on or hide on some vanity wagon so they don't get their hands dirty. Biased more towards the former if they had a teammate in danger.

Everyone voted Falcon except I and Falcon iirc

[Boquise]

btw Dizzy you're about to hit 10,000 posts, prepare your ceremony

Also, I wasn't going to say anything. Remember there's not really objective standards for sincerity. But you already know this.
Depending on the alignment of certain players, this game can be very losable in the game state right now. Winnable too, for sure.
I look forward to admire your WIM, and everyone else's too.

Marmot and Alison for town, here. Everything else up in the air.

I was philosophising about Dizzy potentially being with Marmot as scum, and that they are protecting a weaker scum mate, but this post doesn't feel aligned tbh

[Boquise]

Sure

You are appreciated.

The last thing I was hoping to achieve is the classical night kill analysis. Many people balk at the very idea of trying this, and I think they're wrong. Wifom is wifom blah blah, but we're remiss if we don't at least take a look. Moreover, in a mountainous game, at least one of the layers of wifom does not exist -- there are no doctor dodges. So it'd behoove us to review Mac and see where he sat. What we do with that I don't know right now, but we honor his memory enough to give him a voice.

If that's something that tickles you, I'd love to see what you come up with.

I kinda expected to be the kill because I was during D1 consensus town read with no on-going conflicts with other players. Whereas Mac, also highly town read, had a thing with Wilgy that could be exploited and easier to tinfoil because of Falcon and of site history*.

*What I mean with site history is that I am an unknown variable whilst Mac is a tried gun.

This tells me that Mac's reads can have threatened the woofs tbh

[RondoDimBuckle]

I think Marmot is town. And that's probably the extent of my useful contribution right now.

What inspires you most about our dear local rodent

That he cared to switch off of Falcon at EoD. A collection of good posts, his fluffy and adorable hair, and my well known god read on him.

Now I dont know Marmot that well but why does this signal town and not wolf abandoning ship? Did he have good progression in thread in your eyes to jump off at EOD?

[Boquise]

I am grateful to y'all for the help. I am already getting bombarded with bullshit outside the game, and it's making it very hard for me to even snail through my own analysis. So every bit of assistance is seriously appreciated

Scum chat popping eh?

[Boquise]

I will also shitpost today, who wants to shitpost?

Speaking of which, has Boq posted a single meme?

Does Cooper gifs count tbh?

[Boquise]

Cool.

Agreed, outing a wolf is pretty cool.

I've changed my mind, but not not for the reason you might think.

On what?

I was reading Mac's ISO and came across an interaction you had with him talking about Creature, and thought it was a very good take, and most likely a townie take. I have a harder time seeing wolf!you bothering to stick your neck out for a player like Creature (who seems to get misread often).

So you know Creature is town? got it. Thanks.

In particular, Marmot does not seem to consider the possibility of me/Creature w/w here, almost as if he knows our alignments already and just needed a reason to back off me in hopes I would also back off in kind.

[RondoDimBuckle]

@RondoDimBuckle Why were you parked on Dizzy at EOD? Did you think that vote would go through?

Spoiler: show

@Dyslexicon

I know it sounds like you have some out-of-game things keeping you waway form the thread, but if you find the time, can you ISO one of the following and give your thoughts:

NatetheLesser
Marmot
DrWilgy
Creature

All their ISOs are pretty short - less than one page or barely onto the second.

It sure sounds that way.

I don't usually get a lot out of ISO-ing, and especially when I have no clue what is going on in the game overall.
However, I'll make sure to do Marmot if I'm not able to read the game properly or satisfactory before EoD. Since you are asking so nicely.
He's the only one out of the bunch I think I can read reliably meta-wise.

Can you or someone tell me why Ender and Rondo are voting me?
Kind of cringe.

Because I quoted you twice and mentioned you once directly and you never responded

Spoiler: show

Gg I was Katze

Is that meming just you inflating your post count?

Both.

I notice I'm soon celebrating post number 10 000. Which is cool.

Got to make the last 50 count.

Spoiler: show

Did Ender actually just leave his vote on me when I no posted? What kind of cringe level is that? Like A GAZILLION.

to be fair. I had my vote on you till you replied to my question when you were no posting

Spoiler: show

Can't wolves just be among the low hanging who got townread early (lucy, Boquise, idk who else)?

No, that would be IMPOSSIBLE!

I simply MUST refuse!

And also, no idea, haven't read their post, also don't care, BAIIIIi

[VOTE: Dizzy ] aubergine

Because I wanted Dyslexicon, I didnt like his last second jump onto Falcon. (But that also applies to a bunch of people)

I didnt hate Falcons entrance as much as everyone else but I wasnt willing to stick my neck out for him because other people can read him better

Why did you lynch a town?

[EnderWiggin]

I was memeing before but actually Marmot just wolf.

[RondoDimBuckle]

I'm glad mafia killed Mac so we wouldn't have to tinfoil him after claiming to never being wrong on falcon, and then being wrong on falcon.

lol

[Boquise]

looks like you voted almost every player alive in d1 Rondo. Do you usually spread your votes out, and what do you hope to achieve with that?

[RondoDimBuckle]

Currently, I think the following are various shades of town:

Town

Alison - town
Creature - light town
DrWilgy - strong town
Dyslexicon - light town
RondoDimBuckle - light town
fingersplints - light town
JaggedJimmyJay - strong town

Null

Boquise
lucy
NateTheLesser
Seanzie

Scum

EnderWiggin



I've never actually played with Boq, Nate, or lucy, nor have I put much thought into my read of them this game, which is why they are here. Sean, I don't recall having reason to believe is town (actually I did list one, but I no longer feel that reasoning exists), and Ender was the player I think looks most suspicious thus far.

I don't feel comfortable with the state of this read list, so I will put some effort into adjusting this, both in further informing my poor reads and also further pursuing if I still feel that my light town reads are still townie. I do feel confident on Wilgy and Jay at least.

You put Ender scum but dont point to anything specific? I know what I would point to as pretty suspicious behaviour but what do you see?

[Boquise]

I was memeing before but actually Marmot just wolf.

Yea, Marmot is still a scum lean for me tbh

[RondoDimBuckle]

I will also shitpost today, who wants to shitpost?

I want to but [REDACTED]

Spoiler: show

Alison

will end me now that Mac is gone

[RondoDimBuckle]

Also, why don't you like to do reads Day 1?

I was/am not good at them, hunting mafia was done easier when I let others do d1 and I progressively get more involved

What do you think now that we have a flip?

[RondoDimBuckle]

[VOTE: sean] aubergine

You should tell me about... me.

[VOTE: Sean] aubergine

You should tell me about... me.

Dejavu

[EnderWiggin]

I don't think Dizzy is wolf with Marmot?

But maybe I'm wrong on that read I'm not sure anymore.

[EnderWiggin]

Also I changed my mind, Seanzie is town.

[EnderWiggin]

Rondo and Creature too probably.

[RondoDimBuckle]

Vote Spreadsheet

This is something I do on my homesite because we don't have any sort of vote automation (and Ender will recognize it because I brought screenshots of it to our champs qualifier). If you want to see what the vote count was at any given point in time, this will help.

- There's a tab for each Day at the bottom. All votes from the thread are listed in chronological order, and on the right side is a running vote count that shows what the vote count was after each vote.
- Due to the vagaries of The Poll being separate from the thread, I'm using the timestamp from the vote post if I could find one. I also took poll screenshots occasionally and reconciled the vote counts (there are notes on the timestamps of when this was done), so at those points the count is definitely accurate. There were at least a few votes that I could tell happened from the screenshots but didn't see a vote post for, so that's what the "??:??" votes are.
- Waterfall: This tab shows, for each player, everyone that they voted for each day. Player alignments are colored in after they die.
- Wagons: Shows the final vote count from each day’s vote, with player alignments colored in as the game goes on.
- If you open the document you'll be anonymous to anyone else in there, so don't worry about doxxing yourself.
- I obviously won't be updating this anymore after I die.

Link removed in edit by mod

(I think that'll actually embed here..? Unless the preview is lying to me. It seems like it loses some of the formatting and doesn't show notes, so this is the actual link if you want to open the document:
Link removed in edit by mod

One item of note to start with regarding JJJ's idea to look at the Falcon votes: everyone except Boq/Rondo/Wilgy voted for Falcon at some point. So unless that's exactly the team, there are wolf fingerprints on the Falcon push.

Nate will be allowed to share this document by screenshot, but we can't utilize a shared, editable document outside the thread. Apologies for having to edit this post, but I couldn't see a good way around that.

Apologies, I usually get around to voting everyone day one at some point. I will fix this in the future. Does anyone really see me paired with anyone?

[EnderWiggin]

I have a strong suspicion one of Alison/Jay are actually wolf and that was why I was so disconcerted with gamestate.

Lemme actually verify this tbh.

[RondoDimBuckle]

I will also shitpost today, who wants to shitpost?

Speaking of which, has Boq posted a single meme?

Is boq usually a shitposter too?

[EnderWiggin]

Boq and Rondo actually can be cleared in a Marmot!Wolf world, as can Creature probably.

Mildly trusting Seanzie on the unpairing for Creature/Marmot tbh.

[EnderWiggin]

I will also shitpost today, who wants to shitpost?

Speaking of which, has Boq posted a single meme?

Is boq usually a shitposter too?

He has made my favourite meme post in existence during a Champ's Game last year.

[RondoDimBuckle]

@EnderWiggin You're not town for pretending you have deep thoughts that you don't want to share.

I'm town for having those thoughts though.

Then what is he town for? Is that a slip?

Or more accurately, do you seem Ender as scum?

[RondoDimBuckle]

Marmot's take on me asking Dizzy about his vote is not real.

pls explain. I am not following

[EnderWiggin]

@EnderWiggin You're not town for pretending you have deep thoughts that you don't want to share.

I'm town for having those thoughts though.

Then what is he town for? Is that a slip?

Or more accurately, do you seem Ender as scum?

Do you see me as town? Why?

[RondoDimBuckle]

Things Mac Said about People That Mac Said Things about


Alison - says Alison reeks of town for antoginizing Rondo. Later read her ISO and nothing stood out as scummy.

Boquise - has a bit of an altercation with Boq, then states a 99% certain townread

Creature - calls Creature quite townie. Later votes for Creature (I didn't find an explanation). Eventually calls Creature probably just town (thanks to input from sean)

DrWilgy - calls DrWilgy most suspicious player in the game aside from falcon. Maintains that suspicion later on

Dyslexicon - calls Dizzy town for playing in bystander mode. Eventually lists Dizzy in a POE (though most likely town in said POE)

EnderWiggin

fingersplints

JaggedJimmyJay - Do what Jay says until LYLO, then kill Jay if he's alive. Continues to list Jay as firmly a townread.

lucy - calls lucy town for being new and posting lots. Then had a long back and forth where he questioned why lucy was posting so much but not making reads. Later states a suspicion of her.

Marmot - His last post was to tunnel Marmot if falcon is a miss.

NateTheLesser - agreed with Nate's read on falcon.

RondoDimBuckle - consistent Rondo townreads. Eventually concedes that Rondo could be wolfing, but that he'll be killed at some point anyway.

Seanzie - called Sean town for openly engaging with Mac in a non-apprehensive way

All hail Mac [VOTE: Marmot ] aubergine

[RondoDimBuckle]

I still want to hear from Rondo about his Dizzy park but am otherwise inclined to trend him up because I think wolf teams with Rondo in them are >>rand likely to kill me before Mac.

LOL. Dont pat yourself on the back too much. I am 100% killing Ender

[RondoDimBuckle]

I'm down.

Thank you.

One line of investigation that may be obvious but still doesn't tend to get the dedicated, systematic analysis it warrants is to individually assess the votes on the large mischop wagon of Day 1. We have a bunch of people who took part in that wagon who were all responsible for justifying their participation somehow. If we examine the full progression of each voter on their falcon reads we can try to determine with some reasonable degree of depth their sincerity.

I will likely do this myself, but two sets of eyes are better than one.

Okay so, thinking time.

Ender
Mac
Jay
Alison
Lucy
Nate
Fingersplints
Dizzy

I know I'm town
Mac flips town
I think I have a read on Dizzy town

3/8 townlock for me

I don't think there's all 3 wolves. I think 1-2.

Lucy I have a townish bend on rn.

I want to say Alison/Jay both town but I'm not 100% sure.

I'd say from that Nate/Finger needs my scrutiny most.

What about the people not named?

[RondoDimBuckle]

Also will point at GOC for a great example of me playing chaotically and hiding information I wanted to hide when I was actually town.

I got N1'd by a town vig in that game for it, but proof in pudding and all that shiz.

I like to think you learned it from watching me. But I know its not the truth.

[RondoDimBuckle]

And now I hear you ask, why would you do that?

Cause it's fun bruh

[RondoDimBuckle]

Why did you vote for falcon Day 1 Ender? If I recall correctly, you voted him without any explanation (after previously reading him as town).

I happened to end up being convinced he was mafia.

Part of me wants to think that Ender would never jump on a town as wolf that late but the other part of me knows you know I know you know I know I know you know I know I know you know I know I know you know I know I know you know I know

[RondoDimBuckle]

I think Marmot is town. And that's probably the extent of my useful contribution right now.

What inspires you most about our dear local rodent

That he cared to switch off of Falcon at EoD. A collection of good posts, his fluffy and adorable hair, and my well known god read on him.

[RondoDimBuckle]

G-Man didn't save the final vote count which is annoying. iirc Falcon was a pretty large runaway wagon with low accountability; I'd expect mafia to either casually pile on or hide on some vanity wagon so they don't get their hands dirty. Biased more towards the former if they had a teammate in danger.

Everyone voted Falcon except I and Falcon iirc

You do not

Spoiler: show

[RondoDimBuckle]

Sure

You are appreciated.

The last thing I was hoping to achieve is the classical night kill analysis. Many people balk at the very idea of trying this, and I think they're wrong. Wifom is wifom blah blah, but we're remiss if we don't at least take a look. Moreover, in a mountainous game, at least one of the layers of wifom does not exist -- there are no doctor dodges. So it'd behoove us to review Mac and see where he sat. What we do with that I don't know right now, but we honor his memory enough to give him a voice.

If that's something that tickles you, I'd love to see what you come up with.

I kinda expected to be the kill because I was during D1 consensus town read with no on-going conflicts with other players. Whereas Mac, also highly town read, had a thing with Wilgy that could be exploited and easier to tinfoil because of Falcon and of site history*.

*What I mean with site history is that I am an unknown variable whilst Mac is a tried gun.

This tells me that Mac's reads can have threatened the woofs tbh

Do you have any specific insights into which reads? I know Marmot has gone through it but Id be interested in your take

[RondoDimBuckle]

I was memeing before but actually Marmot just wolf.

Time to Dunya to victory

[RondoDimBuckle]

looks like you voted almost every player alive in d1 Rondo. Do you usually spread your votes out, and what do you hope to achieve with that?

Spur on activity, people usually dont like being voted. I also just like to hit everyone day 1. Some times I forget who I have hit and dont get them all. I usually know how people react to being voted its nice to see consistency or make them fake consistency or just learn for next game.

[RondoDimBuckle]

I will also shitpost today, who wants to shitpost?

I want to but [REDACTED]

Spoiler: show

Alison

will end me now that Mac is gone

Hehehe >continues to meme anyway

[RondoDimBuckle]

I don't think Dizzy is wolf with Marmot?

But maybe I'm wrong on that read I'm not sure anymore.

What changed in the last 20(?) posts to make your hard town read wash away?

[RondoDimBuckle]

Also I changed my mind, Seanzie is town.

Rondo and Creature too probably.

More mystic and cryptic reasons? Or can I ask why?

[RondoDimBuckle]

Boq and Rondo actually can be cleared in a Marmot!Wolf world, as can Creature probably.

Mildly trusting Seanzie on the unpairing for Creature/Marmot tbh.

Walk me through this? How does Marmot Wolf clear me?

[RondoDimBuckle]

Why did you vote for falcon Day 1 Ender? If I recall correctly, you voted him without any explanation (after previously reading him as town).

I happened to end up being convinced he was mafia.

Part of me wants to think that Ender would never jump on a town as wolf that late but the other part of me knows you know I know you know I know I know you know I know I know you know I know I know you know I know I know you know I know

@EnderWiggin You're not town for pretending you have deep thoughts that you don't want to share.

I'm town for having those thoughts though.

Then what is he town for? Is that a slip?

Or more accurately, do you seem Ender as scum?

Do you see me as town? Why?

I think this answers your question.

But to put it plainly. I personally havent seen anything outlandishly wolf. But that vote switch last night just before is something that has my hackles up a bit

[Boquise]

I will also shitpost today, who wants to shitpost?

Speaking of which, has Boq posted a single meme?

Is boq usually a shitposter too?

[Boquise]

I will also shitpost today, who wants to shitpost?

Speaking of which, has Boq posted a single meme?

Is boq usually a shitposter too?

He has made my favourite meme post in existence during a Champ's Game last year.

wow I am honoured tbh! Which?