Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
Boquise/Marmot probably not both mafia. The first post in this progression contains a lot of hedging, but that contrasts starkly the two that follow. Marmot is dead bottom on the reads list and gets a vote. If mafia are going to hedge on their teammates, I don't think the standard application is "but let's kill them anyway".
Boquise wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:28 am
Marmot is the player has the most scum equity. He isn't taking part of much discussion, is basically just there trying to stay relevant. However now when I know that he has been away because of allergies, it does feel like my conclusion is made on wrong premises. Again, I am comparing qualis, but I wolf read Marmot that game and he was town. He also contributed a lot to discussion. Now I have felt some of Marmot's posts surface townie but lacking in content. Another thing is Marmot complaining about us posting a lot, when he was a high poster in his quali.
Boquise wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:32 am
Town:
Mac
Lucy
Alison
Rondo
Seanize
Nate? (Feels like the same approach as in his quali)
JJJ?
Creature?
Ender?
Neutral:
Finger
Wilgy (I respect Alison's take there tho)
Dizzy
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
Boquise and Rondo have a ton of interactions, but none of it strikes me as dissociated. I bring this up because another set of eyes might help, particularly from anyone that is more familiar with either Boq or Rondo than I am. For now it's a yellow box on the chart.
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:03 am
To anyone who is voting for fingersplints, here's a couple links to recent wolf games from her.
Fargo Mafia - ok this was from a year ago. This is one of fs's most active games I've seen, she spent a lot of time early on talking about pretty much anything but reads, and even her reads were not very strong at the start. Mafia Syndicate Normal Game - this is from a few months ago, fs barely posted, and her posts were all very short, and she does seem stilted in this one.
I'm not seeing either of these things from her. Yes fingersplints doesn't post a lot, but that is normal for her (and really it's that the rest of us just post way too much). What I have seen here is an almost immediate attempt to generate reads, explain them, and she's also considering how the game will play out based on flips and looking ahead, an approach which appears to be lacking in her scum meta.
I'd call her town right now.
Does Finger tend to use aggressive phrasing as town when questioned?
I won't share my take on Creature/Wilgy yet. This one strikes me as important, and I want others to say their piece before I do. I have two posts for you that I think can be informative. Tell me what you think, folks. Are they compatible as mafia or not?
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 9:40 am
I'm rereading Ender's Day 1 ISO and am feeling less confident that he's actually a hit.
He's shitposted a lot, but there are flashes of opinions that I like. His treating of JJJ's readlist I think is townie. While I don't like his falcon vote, that's not the only vote he made Day 1 that kinda lacked context. He did so with fingersplits as well as Wilgy.
I also read a little bit of his Champs game (where he was wolf), and there was way less shitposting early on. He might have just taken that game more seriously, but the approach is very different here.
Hmmmmm
100% I took that game more seriously.
Right now I'm in destress to make sure I don't over-stress for Semi's which is why this game is shitpostery compared.
We can only trust the truth. Everything else is a lie.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 7:19 am
I always appreciate having fingersplints in a game these days. For her more than any other, it’s a perspective and a vibe from the increasingly distant Syndicate past transplanted into a very different new-age site meta.
I have no read on splints here, just musing wistfully. She will get involved her own way given time if she is town.
Probably because I’m stubborn and refuse to change lol I don’t win a lot so not sure I’d recommend my style of play to anyone, but I’ve always been in it for the fun over the wins anyways
Creature wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:17 am
Aw shit it didn't work
What ails you, Creature? Express your feelings
Just skimmed a lot of pages but didn't feel like replying to any post.
I feel this
I felt good about these posts for some reason. Maybe because they didn't strike as wolf seeking for townreads.
Creature, I'd appreciate if you could elaborate on what it was about these fingersplints posts that gives you an impression she wasn't "seeking for townreads".
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
Marmot/Creature is a chummy interaction, and one that I think probably doesn't reflect mafia teammates. It's extremely on-the-nose. I think Marmot's reception of Creature's discussion of him is particularly suggestive of this being dissociated.
Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:30 pm
Anyway, I do think that Creature's argument to elim me because I am frozen is not a good one. If it's a pressure vote to get me to post content, fine, but I hope he's willing to reconsider at least.
Guess I won't get you lynched today so you'll get a couple more days to post content.
Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:28 pm
Dizzy is drfunky and gay
Creature is now frozen.
No, I'm bored.
Can you answer my question please?
The melting point of water is 32 °F. [...] and that's why Marmot is frozen.
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:38 pm
Oh just noticed Marmot has a wagon
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:42 pm
I think I'd lynch falcon over Marmot here.
Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:28 pm
Dizzy is drfunky and gay
Creature is now frozen.
Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:30 pm
Anyway, I do think that Creature's argument to elim me because I am frozen is not a good one. If it's a pressure vote to get me to post content, fine, but I hope he's willing to reconsider at least.
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
Creature/Nate probably not both mafia. This is one of my more confident views. If we assume Creature is mafia, then Nate is the token low-key easy target.
Creature wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:19 am[VOTE:
NateTheLesser] aubergine
Felt the least impressive so far and was barely touched.
Do you think it's meaningful that Nate was barely touched?
It's somewhat concerning as wolves ignoring each other is a valid strategy.
Creature wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 5:52 pm
I kinda want to do Nate the most because he seems pretty under and it feels like he's being forcefully shoved into the townreads list and/or barely evaluated at all. As comparison, I often see myself going from townread to wolfread or viceversa.
Creature wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:17 pm[VOTE:
NateTheLesser] aubergine
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:24 pm
I still don't get the Nate townreads. From which weirdverse did they come from?
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:54 am
Nate, Sean, Marmot
83% chance of at least 1 scum in that lil' group
Creature wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 5:52 pm
I kinda want to do Nate the most because he seems pretty under and it feels like he's being forcefully shoved into the townreads list and/or barely evaluated at all. As comparison, I often see myself going from townread to wolfread or viceversa.
Creature wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 5:55 pm
How do you all read Marmot and Seanzie?
Hmm. Both came to a me/Sean/Marmot team.
I'm currently only wolfreading you. I don't know how I feel about Marmot and Seanzie and that's why I asked the question in the third quote.
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:31 pmJay is kinda my favorite tinfoil, and I'm actually kinda considering a Jay/Creature team, but this is more the things of tinfoil than anything else. Jay's take on me still seems weird and overly generous though, and I noticed their most recent sort might as well be just based on postcount (sans Nate), which isn't impossible to happen naturally, but perhaps a bit concerning.
Seanzie what was it about Creature and I that struck you as a team to consider
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 8:07 pm
I have turned into one of those "But how do you really feel" players.
How.
How we feel is important, Ender. Never be afraid to ask how we feel.
How sweet.
But tbh I've already been called out for it:
I don't actually sus your list, I just wanted to see what happened if I insinuated I did.
I think I mostly like Boq/JJJ a s my little town.
I'm wary of trusting Lucy because tone doesn't do a lot for me from chattier players and I don't think she'll struggle with that, my reservation is held until I see her talk about reads.
Falcon is rand but more rand!town so I'll agree with that.
I hold my thoughts on Seanzie.
Rondo is mildly in his townsphere but that's tentative and early so don't trust it.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:48 pm
If the mafia team is some combination of falcon, wilgy, ender, marmot then they lost at rand lol.
Talk like that makes me wanna throw a boomerang at yo ass.
But all I have is a stick
I have a spare boomerang somewhere you can probably borrow.
EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 5:36 am[VOTE:
falcon] aubergine
Ngl, I'd rather vote Ender than falcon after reading this progression.
Look at you, pullin on my heartstrings.
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:20 pm
*The doctor puts down his mug and begins to wiggle in place, nothing like some silly dancing to soothe the soul.*
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
Perhaps I should take some care with these two in particular (given that they go back a very long time), but my first instinct is that these posts point to dissociation. Marmot gave an against-the-grain town read on Wilgy, so for Wilgy to respond to that with suspicion gives me an impression that it's not a coordinated exchange.
Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:53 am
I glanced at DrWilgy's ISO and have a firm townread there.
I glanced at falcon's too and don't have a firm townread, but I'm not ready to call him scum yet. I'll probably defer to Mac's read since he's so consistent at reading him.
Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:57 am
I also don't think a team of DrWilgy and falcon would both attempt to simultaneously scumread a town!Mac (in this gamestate).
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
This bit from Wilgy/Nate looks dissociated. Nate's language is contextually rather severe (e.g., to call Wilgy "resigned"). If Wilgy is mafia, his response looks like one crafted out of a genuine need to give an explanation.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:13 am
@DrWilgy I have no idea when you have or have not done that exact thing as mafia. That is more specific than I am going to get with a meta read. Is Mac in the “town core”?
It appears so.
Even if it is just a 2 person core from what I've seen of the thread so far and trying to exclude my own bias. Other potential core members who are being read as town potentially include Boc, you, maybe Alison. It is early but I see it developing.
I'm not sure how to read this other than like, resigned and disappointed that a towncore is forming.
I had to go back as I read this earlier, but wasn't in a place to respond. My time with patients should involve my phone less you see, but your desire for insight here is warranted.
The answer I had provided was strictly in response to who I believed to be the greater threads 'town core' i.e. not just my own bias and reads. In response to that, I was acknowledging that Mac was a part of many town reads and would likely be within that town core. My reaction to Mac, specifically, being core, was deflated as I did not agree.
This was also following some frustration in that I'm acknowledging that I'm no longer good at reading Mac.
So, yes, I'm very much glad people have reads and a core is forming, BUT in the moment didn't desire Mac to be as town placed as he was.
Now that I've slept on it and thought about it more, I do believe I've spent too much time in what I must now acknowledge as tinfoil towards Mac. His content is good and I do think it is pro town currently. I will leave it at that and may reassess as the game progresses.
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
I think these posts are decent to dissociate Wilgy/Rondo. The second post in the spoiler especially looks like a direct appeal by Wilgy to Rondo, that (if we assume Wilgy is mafia) doesn't reflect the kind of language I associate with teammates. He also looks like he is explaining himself in response to Rondo's pestering as though the person he is speaking to doesn't already know the answer. There's also the "[not shade just curious]" from Rondo that doesn't look teamed.
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:41 am
Ah! An interesting conundrum! *Sits up from study and lifts paper to light*
Seanzie, can be scum in this scenario. When given the opportunity to expand thinking, a joke reply was given not even considering alternatives to the action of voting me.
EnderWiggin I do not have enough data on, this can be either way.
*Brings the paper back down and stands up, beginning to pace around his study*
Macdougall however intrigues me the most here. I do believe that Mac has a good read on me, but is either wrong or is wolf. I do wonder if town Mac pushes on me in effort to solve, but the fervor I see does not seem to indicate that this is in fact fishing. Yes, Mac who is good at reading me, I do not feel would commit this hard to a scum read on me at this point. This is potentially Scum Mac. I will review in the morning as it is time for the doctor to get some well deserved rest.
My studies on Jay the all consuming will continue tomorrow.
*Turns off the lights and exits stage left*
So do you think that town Mac should be townreading you for your play prior to this post? If so can you show me the parts where you've towntold to a degree where you'd expect me to notice?
I do not, but I do believe that town Mac would allow for more data before gauging someone he has a track record of reading correctly.
That is what's throwing me off. Your conclusion was drawn far more quickly than I'd expect.
However, the gusto I feel from your posts is in line to how I perceive town Mac. It is quite the contradiction.
Do you, Mac, feel as if your ability to read me has shifted at all in the past year? If so, do you feel it has improved or declined?
First sentence, since when have you known me to not be bullish with making reads immediately? I don't think my track record of reading you is superb. I've read you wrong quite a lot. I think I read you poorly when we first started playing, went through a patch of reading you really well, and then when you came back from hiatus and started playing more intentionally I lost my ability to read you because you were playing entirely new again.
In this game you just seem to be making posts for the sake of it.
I expect bullishness yes, but I expect it to reflect data available. For what this concerns, I do not think the data was available for your vote to land on me. A read, maybe, but for that to entice your vote and to be your most sound read is what brought about my interest.
Thank you for the explanation. If you do believe my interactions with Seanzie, Rondo, EW, and Lucy so far did not achieve anything, you are mistaken. Further, If I were just posting to post, would I not have more posts currently however?
So far, my research and study have lead to concerns with Lucy and Seanzie. With Rondo and EnderWiggin, I have not yet seen anything that would imply wolf play.
JJJ I have in a slight focus as well as their early read on Lucy contradicts my own.
I do believe that ultimately it is still in our best interest to keep Jay the all Consuming from absorbing our own Jay.
What did they achieve? Other than promoting more talk? [not shade just curious]
What concerns? Am I missing something with Seanzie? What are your concerns with Lucy?
Examining what players would respond to was the intent.
Would it be my role play (which I shall continue)? would it be silly voting or wolf calling? Would it be me using silly words and such?
Seanzie is in a slight wolf lean as I indicated earlier. They provided a wolf read on me rather early. This was reasonable. They however did not respond to my asking of further actions to follow the read in a way that informed me their read was serious. The ask for multiple actions following the read on me was to encourage thought and lines of action, I received nothing following, not even an further attempt to analyze. If Seanzie had wanted to, this would have been a very good opportunity for a civilian to push the game state in a positive way against someone who you claimed was a wolf as they just gave you the discussion floor.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 2:04 am
Nah ur reads are bogus lol.
And you are either of the ten fools or a wolf.
Your read indicates one while behavior hits at the other, I'll place you orange.
Are you sure you actually feel this way? I dont see a vote on Mac. Could it be performative?
I believe Seanzie deserves the vote more currently and I didn't vote there.
Rondo, it is still my modus operandi to only half read the thread even if I am currently involved. I likely will not vote unless I feel like I've read enough or if what I have read has given me enough feeling to warrant the vote.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 2:04 am
Nah ur reads are bogus lol.
And you are either of the ten fools or a wolf.
Your read indicates one while behavior hits at the other, I'll place you orange.
Are you sure you actually feel this way? I dont see a vote on Mac. Could it be performative?
I believe Seanzie deserves the vote more currently and I didn't vote there.
Rondo, it is still my modus operandi to only half read the thread even if I am currently involved. I likely will not vote unless I feel like I've read enough or if what I have read has given me enough feeling to warrant the vote.
Thanks for the heads up on your play. I assume Mac will call you out if you are lying
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
Wilgy/Seanzie seem unlikely as mafia teammates. If one assumes Wilgy is mafia, these posts read to me like someone trying to glass-step around assertive town suspicion and, carefully, translate it into suspicion the other way.
Seanzie wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 10:30 am
Something about Wilgy feels off. Not enough to act on, but wnough to comment on.
*Pushes up glasses* now tell me Seanzie, how does that make you feel?
It makes me feel like I might have a lead on a wolf.
I see... *Scribbles down notes* now that you feel that, how do you wish to act following? Can you tell me the first thing that comes to mind, but after provide 2 more alternatives?
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:41 am
Ah! An interesting conundrum! *Sits up from study and lifts paper to light*
Seanzie, can be scum in this scenario. When given the opportunity to expand thinking, a joke reply was given not even considering alternatives to the action of voting me.
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 2:20 am
Seanzie is in a slight wolf lean as I indicated earlier. They provided a wolf read on me rather early. This was reasonable. They however did not respond to my asking of further actions to follow the read in a way that informed me their read was serious. The ask for multiple actions following the read on me was to encourage thought and lines of action, I received nothing following, not even an further attempt to analyze. If Seanzie had wanted to, this would have been a very good opportunity for a civilian to push the game state in a positive way against someone who you claimed was a wolf as they just gave you the discussion floor.
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
Gonna have to step away from this project for a while. I do have at least one meaningful conclusion from my work so far:
I don't see many teams I like containing DrWilgy. I'd call him most compatible with Creature, Dizzy, and fingersplints -- otherwise, it's green boxes in the chart. That's a good thing. If anyone here could find inspiration to split Wilgy from any of those three as well, we're closer yet to a solid clear of a POE slot.
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 8:31 pmJay is kinda my favorite tinfoil, and I'm actually kinda considering a Jay/Creature team, but this is more the things of tinfoil than anything else. Jay's take on me still seems weird and overly generous though, and I noticed their most recent sort might as well be just based on postcount (sans Nate), which isn't impossible to happen naturally, but perhaps a bit concerning.
Seanzie what was it about Creature and I that struck you as a team to consider
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:40 am
Gonna have to step away from this project for a while. I do have at least one meaningful conclusion from my work so far:
I don't see many teams I like containing DrWilgy. I'd call him most compatible with Creature, Dizzy, and fingersplints -- otherwise, it's green boxes in the chart. That's a good thing. If anyone here could find inspiration to split Wilgy from any of those three as well, we're closer yet to a solid clear of a POE slot.
Not gonna lie, while I don't want to discourage anyone from doing analysis, I am kind of wary of your conclusions. You seem to be spending only a minute or two per pairing, and the reasons you're stating to anti-team people are extremely weak IMO. While this would be fine to help develop reads and worldbuild, the idea that you're suggesting a solid clear of a PoE based on anti-teams shoots up huge red flags in my mind. No, just no. Those "dissassociations" you've pointed out are NOT remotely strong enough to clear someone based off associations alone. Just no. That is bad.
EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 8:07 pm
I have turned into one of those "But how do you really feel" players.
How.
How we feel is important, Ender. Never be afraid to ask how we feel.
How sweet.
But tbh I've already been called out for it:
I don't actually sus your list, I just wanted to see what happened if I insinuated I did.
I think I mostly like Boq/JJJ a s my little town.
I'm wary of trusting Lucy because tone doesn't do a lot for me from chattier players and I don't think she'll struggle with that, my reservation is held until I see her talk about reads.
Falcon is rand but more rand!town so I'll agree with that.
I hold my thoughts on Seanzie.
Rondo is mildly in his townsphere but that's tentative and early so don't trust it.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:48 pm
If the mafia team is some combination of falcon, wilgy, ender, marmot then they lost at rand lol.
Talk like that makes me wanna throw a boomerang at yo ass.
But all I have is a stick
I have a spare boomerang somewhere you can probably borrow.
EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 5:36 am[VOTE:
falcon] aubergine
Ngl, I'd rather vote Ender than falcon after reading this progression.
Look at you, pullin on my heartstrings.
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:20 pm
*The doctor puts down his mug and begins to wiggle in place, nothing like some silly dancing to soothe the soul.*
[VOTE:
Ender] aubergine
No it isn't. I don't see how you can look at this and say with any sort of confidence that these posts dissassociate the two. Even without looking at the exact votes, Falcon was a runaway wagon, much bigger than anything else, so a Wilgy vote on Ender latish in the day doesn't really clear the pair IMO, and the rest of it is easily faked.
Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:52 am
Not gonna lie, while I don't want to discourage anyone from doing analysis, I am kind of wary of your conclusions. You seem to be spending only a minute or two per pairing
There is, quite simply, no human alive that can do this stuff as fast as I can. Sometimes a couple of minutes is all it takes to search the key posts and interpret them.
Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:52 amand the reasons you're stating to anti-team people are extremely weak IMO. While this would be fine to help develop reads and worldbuild, the idea that you're suggesting a solid clear of a PoE based on anti-teams shoots up huge red flags in my mind. No, just no. Those "dissassociations" you've pointed out are NOT remotely strong enough to clear someone based off associations alone. Just no. That is bad.
Use a word softer than "clear" if you prefer. Everything will be, as ever before, subject to continuous evaluation and reevaluation. We need a starting point, however, and that is what I am building. The single most valuable application of this task, in my view given my numerous past experiences employing it, is the capacity to remove players from the immediate POE pool on the basis of narrow team fits. If you don't feel DrWilgy is there, then go point out my conclusions that you would protest and protest them (or for any other pairing). I actually have managed fewer dissociated relationships so far than I would like or than I often have in other games. I am not going to pittle around and call everything null, or else we're going to get nowhere. Judgment calls must be made.
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:56 am
No it isn't. I don't see how you can look at this and say with any sort of confidence that these posts dissassociate the two. Even without looking at the exact votes, Falcon was a runaway wagon, much bigger than anything else, so a Wilgy vote on Ender latish in the day doesn't really clear the pair IMO, and the rest of it is easily faked.
Everything is fakeable. I don't care about fakeable. I care about looking at posts and deciding what they tell me, and "easily" is relative. It is true that the status of the wagons as of the second Ender vote there is an important matter, and I said as much. I don't have a clear memory of exactly how far ahead falcon was at -40 minutes to EOD.
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:52 am
Not gonna lie, while I don't want to discourage anyone from doing analysis, I am kind of wary of your conclusions. You seem to be spending only a minute or two per pairing
There is, quite simply, no human alive that can do this stuff as fast as I can. Sometimes a couple of minutes is all it takes to search the key posts and interpret them.
Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:52 amand the reasons you're stating to anti-team people are extremely weak IMO. While this would be fine to help develop reads and worldbuild, the idea that you're suggesting a solid clear of a PoE based on anti-teams shoots up huge red flags in my mind. No, just no. Those "dissassociations" you've pointed out are NOT remotely strong enough to clear someone based off associations alone. Just no. That is bad.
Use a word softer than "clear" if you prefer. Everything will be, as ever before, subject to continuous evaluation and reevaluation. We need a starting point, however, and that is what I am building. The single most valuable application of this task, in my view given my numerous past experiences employing it, is the capacity to remove players from the immediate POE pool on the basis of narrow team fits. If you don't feel DrWilgy is there, then go point out my conclusions that you would protest and protest them (or for any other pairing). I actually have managed fewer dissociated relationships so far than I would like or than I often have in other games. I am not going to pittle around and call everything null, or else we're going to get nowhere. Judgment calls must be made.
You want me to interpret your post with a softer word than "clear", and yet you used a stronger phrase, "solid clear".
I don't expect you to call everything null, but I do hope you weight posts/analyses based on how fallible they are, and I'm not sure I'm seeing that here.
Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:16 pm
You want me to interpret your post with a softer word than "clear", and yet you used a stronger phrase, "solid clear".
I don't expect you to call everything null, but I do hope you weight posts/analyses based on how fallible they are, and I'm not sure I'm seeing that here.
Language. The modifier "solid" implies "good, but not absolute" -- if you interpret "clear" as absolute, that isn't my meaning. It's lingo that I have dragged from fucken spec chat. "Town-indicative"
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:56 am
No it isn't. I don't see how you can look at this and say with any sort of confidence that these posts dissassociate the two. Even without looking at the exact votes, Falcon was a runaway wagon, much bigger than anything else, so a Wilgy vote on Ender latish in the day doesn't really clear the pair IMO, and the rest of it is easily faked.
Everything is fakeable. I don't care about fakeable. I care about looking at posts and deciding what they tell me, and "easily" is relative. It is true that the status of the wagons as of the second Ender vote there is an important matter, and I said as much. I don't have a clear memory of exactly how far ahead falcon was at -40 minutes to EOD.
"easily" is relative, but an early unexplained vote on a teammate is easy in any reasonable easy-v-hard ranking system.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:05 pm
@Seanzie what is your present view of DrWilgy
It hasn't changed much since yesterday. I still think they are far more reactionary than I've ever seen them as town (albiet I've never seen them as wolf I don't think), and some of their takes, such as calling me opportunistic for pushing them, are wolfy.
They have become a little less concerning to me in the immediate future as I feel pretty strongly about Marmot right now, but they're still solidly in my suspect list.
Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:16 pm
You want me to interpret your post with a softer word than "clear", and yet you used a stronger phrase, "solid clear".
I don't expect you to call everything null, but I do hope you weight posts/analyses based on how fallible they are, and I'm not sure I'm seeing that here.
Language. The modifier "solid" implies "good, but not absolute" -- if you interpret "clear" as absolute, that isn't my meaning. It's lingo that I have dragged from fucken spec chat. "Town-indicative"
I do not interpret someone saying someone else is socially cleared as absolute, but I think the vast majority of people use that as something a good step stronger than "town-indicative" or "town lean", and I'd guess you do to.
EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Sat Jun 25, 2022 11:00 pm
Wait, this is Day 0.
Do votes even count.
Do my feelings count?
Always <3
I revoke my EW vote.
I'm now voting [VOTE:
JJJ] aubergine in effort to help Jay the all consuming best him and reclaim his full and pure form.
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:41 am
Ah! An interesting conundrum! *Sits up from study and lifts paper to light*
Seanzie, can be scum in this scenario. When given the opportunity to expand thinking, a joke reply was given not even considering alternatives to the action of voting me.
EnderWiggin I do not have enough data on, this can be either way.
*Brings the paper back down and stands up, beginning to pace around his study*
Macdougall however intrigues me the most here. I do believe that Mac has a good read on me, but is either wrong or is wolf. I do wonder if town Mac pushes on me in effort to solve, but the fervor I see does not seem to indicate that this is in fact fishing. Yes, Mac who is good at reading me, I do not feel would commit this hard to a scum read on me at this point. This is potentially Scum Mac. I will review in the morning as it is time for the doctor to get some well deserved rest.
My studies on Jay the all consuming will continue tomorrow.
*Turns off the lights and exits stage left*
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 2:02 am
I expect bullishness yes, but I expect it to reflect data available. For what this concerns, I do not think the data was available for your vote to land on me. A read, maybe, but for that to entice your vote and to be your most sound read is what brought about my interest.
Thank you for the explanation. If you do believe my interactions with Seanzie, Rondo, EW, and Lucy so far did not achieve anything, you are mistaken. Further, If I were just posting to post, would I not have more posts currently however?
So far, my research and study have lead to concerns with Lucy and Seanzie. With Rondo and EnderWiggin, I have not yet seen anything that would imply wolf play.
JJJ I have in a slight focus as well as their early read on Lucy contradicts my own.
I do believe that ultimately it is still in our best interest to keep Jay the all Consuming from absorbing our own Jay.
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:41 am
Ah! An interesting conundrum! *Sits up from study and lifts paper to light*
Seanzie, can be scum in this scenario. When given the opportunity to expand thinking, a joke reply was given not even considering alternatives to the action of voting me.
EnderWiggin I do not have enough data on, this can be either way.
*Brings the paper back down and stands up, beginning to pace around his study*
Macdougall however intrigues me the most here. I do believe that Mac has a good read on me, but is either wrong or is wolf. I do wonder if town Mac pushes on me in effort to solve, but the fervor I see does not seem to indicate that this is in fact fishing. Yes, Mac who is good at reading me, I do not feel would commit this hard to a scum read on me at this point. This is potentially Scum Mac. I will review in the morning as it is time for the doctor to get some well deserved rest.
My studies on Jay the all consuming will continue tomorrow.
*Turns off the lights and exits stage left*
Why bring up Ender if you don't have anything to say about him?
*Points to a list of people labeled "The 3 that I've seen vote me"*
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:31 pm
*Scribbles down notes*
Ngl, I'd rather vote Ender than falcon after reading this progression.
Look at you, pullin on my heartstrings.
[/quote]
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:20 pm
*The doctor puts down his mug and begins to wiggle in place, nothing like some silly dancing to soothe the soul.*
[VOTE:
Ender] aubergine
The case against them being mafia teammates: If EnderWiggin is presumed mafia, his motion against Wilgy strikes me as one of opportunism. Wilgy took early heat in the Day 0/Day 1 period, and if he is town he is of the site's most token easy targets in every game. Wiggin explicitly referenced Seanzie's suspicion of Wilgy as a motivator (if Wiggin is mafia, that'd imply to me him using a town's misgivings about another town to justify a bad vote). If Wilgy is assumed mafia, his votes, while less meaningful by raw poll data, strike me as generic omgus.
It isn't absolute, but as a starting point with neither of them flipped, I am okay proceeding.
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:24 pm
I do not interpret someone saying someone else is socially cleared as absolute, but I think the vast majority of people use that as something a good step stronger than "town-indicative" or "town lean", and I'd guess you do to.
Before this year I didn't use the word much in general. Lingo rubs off. From a game-solving, world-building perspective, the objective is to remove suspects (whether temporarily or permanently). When people do that, sometimes they say "clear". The end.
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Sat Jun 25, 2022 11:00 pm
Wait, this is Day 0.
Do votes even count.
Do my feelings count?
Always <3
I revoke my EW vote.
I'm now voting [VOTE:
JJJ] aubergine in effort to help Jay the all consuming best him and reclaim his full and pure form.
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:41 am
Ah! An interesting conundrum! *Sits up from study and lifts paper to light*
Seanzie, can be scum in this scenario. When given the opportunity to expand thinking, a joke reply was given not even considering alternatives to the action of voting me.
EnderWiggin I do not have enough data on, this can be either way.
*Brings the paper back down and stands up, beginning to pace around his study*
Macdougall however intrigues me the most here. I do believe that Mac has a good read on me, but is either wrong or is wolf. I do wonder if town Mac pushes on me in effort to solve, but the fervor I see does not seem to indicate that this is in fact fishing. Yes, Mac who is good at reading me, I do not feel would commit this hard to a scum read on me at this point. This is potentially Scum Mac. I will review in the morning as it is time for the doctor to get some well deserved rest.
My studies on Jay the all consuming will continue tomorrow.
*Turns off the lights and exits stage left*
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 2:02 am
I expect bullishness yes, but I expect it to reflect data available. For what this concerns, I do not think the data was available for your vote to land on me. A read, maybe, but for that to entice your vote and to be your most sound read is what brought about my interest.
Thank you for the explanation. If you do believe my interactions with Seanzie, Rondo, EW, and Lucy so far did not achieve anything, you are mistaken. Further, If I were just posting to post, would I not have more posts currently however?
So far, my research and study have lead to concerns with Lucy and Seanzie. With Rondo and EnderWiggin, I have not yet seen anything that would imply wolf play.
JJJ I have in a slight focus as well as their early read on Lucy contradicts my own.
I do believe that ultimately it is still in our best interest to keep Jay the all Consuming from absorbing our own Jay.
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:41 am
Ah! An interesting conundrum! *Sits up from study and lifts paper to light*
Seanzie, can be scum in this scenario. When given the opportunity to expand thinking, a joke reply was given not even considering alternatives to the action of voting me.
EnderWiggin I do not have enough data on, this can be either way.
*Brings the paper back down and stands up, beginning to pace around his study*
Macdougall however intrigues me the most here. I do believe that Mac has a good read on me, but is either wrong or is wolf. I do wonder if town Mac pushes on me in effort to solve, but the fervor I see does not seem to indicate that this is in fact fishing. Yes, Mac who is good at reading me, I do not feel would commit this hard to a scum read on me at this point. This is potentially Scum Mac. I will review in the morning as it is time for the doctor to get some well deserved rest.
My studies on Jay the all consuming will continue tomorrow.
*Turns off the lights and exits stage left*
Why bring up Ender if you don't have anything to say about him?
*Points to a list of people labeled "The 3 that I've seen vote me"*
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:31 pm
*Scribbles down notes*
Ngl, I'd rather vote Ender than falcon after reading this progression.
Look at you, pullin on my heartstrings.
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:20 pm
*The doctor puts down his mug and begins to wiggle in place, nothing like some silly dancing to soothe the soul.*
[VOTE:
Ender] aubergine
[/spoiler]
The case against them being mafia teammates: If EnderWiggin is presumed mafia, his motion against Wilgy strikes me as one of opportunism. Wilgy took early heat in the Day 0/Day 1 period, and if he is town he is of the site's most token easy targets in every game. Wiggin explicitly referenced Seanzie's suspicion of Wilgy as a motivator (if Wiggin is mafia, that'd imply to me him using a town's misgivings about another town to justify a bad vote). If Wilgy is assumed mafia, his votes, while less meaningful by raw poll data, strike me as generic omgus.
It isn't absolute, but as a starting point with neither of them flipped, I am okay proceeding.
[/quote]
Just to be sure, this post is what strikes you as opportunism?
EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 9:28 pm
Actually I'm a wagoner and Seanzie has voted somewhere I wanted.
[VOTE:
DrWilgy] aubergine
A vote less half an hour into D1 is opportunistic?
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
I also want to ensure it's clear when the casual readers skim over this that the entire purpose of the exercise is to examine hypotheticals. If Ender is assumed mafia, I sense potential for opportunism in that moment.
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Sat Jun 25, 2022 11:00 pm
Wait, this is Day 0.
Do votes even count.
Do my feelings count?
Always <3
I revoke my EW vote.
I'm now voting [VOTE:
JJJ] aubergine in effort to help Jay the all consuming best him and reclaim his full and pure form.
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:41 am
Ah! An interesting conundrum! *Sits up from study and lifts paper to light*
Seanzie, can be scum in this scenario. When given the opportunity to expand thinking, a joke reply was given not even considering alternatives to the action of voting me.
EnderWiggin I do not have enough data on, this can be either way.
*Brings the paper back down and stands up, beginning to pace around his study*
Macdougall however intrigues me the most here. I do believe that Mac has a good read on me, but is either wrong or is wolf. I do wonder if town Mac pushes on me in effort to solve, but the fervor I see does not seem to indicate that this is in fact fishing. Yes, Mac who is good at reading me, I do not feel would commit this hard to a scum read on me at this point. This is potentially Scum Mac. I will review in the morning as it is time for the doctor to get some well deserved rest.
My studies on Jay the all consuming will continue tomorrow.
*Turns off the lights and exits stage left*
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 2:02 am
I expect bullishness yes, but I expect it to reflect data available. For what this concerns, I do not think the data was available for your vote to land on me. A read, maybe, but for that to entice your vote and to be your most sound read is what brought about my interest.
Thank you for the explanation. If you do believe my interactions with Seanzie, Rondo, EW, and Lucy so far did not achieve anything, you are mistaken. Further, If I were just posting to post, would I not have more posts currently however?
So far, my research and study have lead to concerns with Lucy and Seanzie. With Rondo and EnderWiggin, I have not yet seen anything that would imply wolf play.
JJJ I have in a slight focus as well as their early read on Lucy contradicts my own.
I do believe that ultimately it is still in our best interest to keep Jay the all Consuming from absorbing our own Jay.
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:41 am
Ah! An interesting conundrum! *Sits up from study and lifts paper to light*
Seanzie, can be scum in this scenario. When given the opportunity to expand thinking, a joke reply was given not even considering alternatives to the action of voting me.
EnderWiggin I do not have enough data on, this can be either way.
*Brings the paper back down and stands up, beginning to pace around his study*
Macdougall however intrigues me the most here. I do believe that Mac has a good read on me, but is either wrong or is wolf. I do wonder if town Mac pushes on me in effort to solve, but the fervor I see does not seem to indicate that this is in fact fishing. Yes, Mac who is good at reading me, I do not feel would commit this hard to a scum read on me at this point. This is potentially Scum Mac. I will review in the morning as it is time for the doctor to get some well deserved rest.
My studies on Jay the all consuming will continue tomorrow.
*Turns off the lights and exits stage left*
Why bring up Ender if you don't have anything to say about him?
*Points to a list of people labeled "The 3 that I've seen vote me"*
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Jun 27, 2022 1:31 pm
*Scribbles down notes*
Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:16 pm
Ngl, I'd rather vote Ender than falcon after reading this progression.
Look at you, pullin on my heartstrings.
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:20 pm
*The doctor puts down his mug and begins to wiggle in place, nothing like some silly dancing to soothe the soul.*
[VOTE:
Ender] aubergine
The case against them being mafia teammates: If EnderWiggin is presumed mafia, his motion against Wilgy strikes me as one of opportunism. Wilgy took early heat in the Day 0/Day 1 period, and if he is town he is of the site's most token easy targets in every game. Wiggin explicitly referenced Seanzie's suspicion of Wilgy as a motivator (if Wiggin is mafia, that'd imply to me him using a town's misgivings about another town to justify a bad vote). If Wilgy is assumed mafia, his votes, while less meaningful by raw poll data, strike me as generic omgus.
It isn't absolute, but as a starting point with neither of them flipped, I am okay proceeding.
Just to be sure, this post is what strikes you as opportunism?
EnderWiggin wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 9:28 pm
Actually I'm a wagoner and Seanzie has voted somewhere I wanted.
[VOTE:
DrWilgy] aubergine
A vote less half an hour into D1 is opportunistic?
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:45 pm
@Seanzie what do you think prohibits the existence of opportunism in the early stages of a Day 1 preceded by 24 hours of Day 0 discourse?
A vote with 47 hours left in the day does not really put that person in danger, except in the most extreme of circumstances. The worst it might do is bring slightly more attention to that person, but I'd barely call that "opportunistic". More likely, making an early wagon even bigger is probably more likely to protect that person than anything else - picking up suspicion early on allows for a lot of time for feelings to soften and doubt to sink in, plus if a wagon gets too big early on, people will assume foul play and likely back off.
In the wolf!Ender hypothetical, did you feel their vote was set there? Did you feel that vote put Wilgy in significant danger? What benefit did wolf!Ender really hope to gain from their "opportunistic" vote? Why was it opportunistic rather than distancing, or just a thing to make Ender look like he was doing something/having thoughts?
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:45 pm
@Seanzie what do you think prohibits the existence of opportunism in the early stages of a Day 1 preceded by 24 hours of Day 0 discourse?
A vote with 47 hours left in the day does not really put that person in danger, except in the most extreme of circumstances. The worst it might do is bring slightly more attention to that person, but I'd barely call that "opportunistic". More likely, making an early wagon even bigger is probably more likely to protect that person than anything else - picking up suspicion early on allows for a lot of time for feelings to soften and doubt to sink in, plus if a wagon gets too big early on, people will assume foul play and likely back off.
In the wolf!Ender hypothetical, did you feel their vote was set there? Did you feel that vote put Wilgy in significant danger? What benefit did wolf!Ender really hope to gain from their "opportunistic" vote? Why was it opportunistic rather than distancing, or just a thing to make Ender look like he was doing something/having thoughts?
I don't agree with the highlighted layer of wifom. That may happen sometimes, but I don't think it's a general principle. Early wagons end up getting chopped all the time. The falcon wagon was a pretty early wagon too (he was at 2 votes within 3 hours and 3 votes within about 6 hours). No, the vote did not put Wilgy in "significant danger", but I think that's a much stronger notion of what "opportunism" has to be than what it can be. Anything that contributes in any way to a negative thread climate for a member of the town faction can be opportunistic, especially when the target is exactly DrWilgy. Once the wagon is there, it's a part of the game consciousness even if you move your vote later. You can be certain that mafia that pay attention, pay attention to that. It's an obvious way to mark a player as "viable". Is this exactly what happens in an Ender-mafia world? I really don't know, but I do know that I have seen about eight million mafia use town Wilgy as a piñata.
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
I'm about to lose the rest of this evening to work, so I hope folks get engaged here. The game is kind of dead apart from my analysis and Sean hating it.
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:45 pm
@Seanzie what do you think prohibits the existence of opportunism in the early stages of a Day 1 preceded by 24 hours of Day 0 discourse?
A vote with 47 hours left in the day does not really put that person in danger, except in the most extreme of circumstances. The worst it might do is bring slightly more attention to that person, but I'd barely call that "opportunistic". More likely, making an early wagon even bigger is probably more likely to protect that person than anything else - picking up suspicion early on allows for a lot of time for feelings to soften and doubt to sink in, plus if a wagon gets too big early on, people will assume foul play and likely back off.
In the wolf!Ender hypothetical, did you feel their vote was set there? Did you feel that vote put Wilgy in significant danger? What benefit did wolf!Ender really hope to gain from their "opportunistic" vote? Why was it opportunistic rather than distancing, or just a thing to make Ender look like he was doing something/having thoughts?
I don't agree with the highlighted layer of wifom. That may happen sometimes, but I don't think it's a general principle. Early wagons end up getting chopped all the time. The falcon wagon was a pretty early wagon too (he was at 2 votes within 3 hours and 3 votes within about 6 hours). No, the vote did not put Wilgy in "significant danger", but I think that's a much stronger notion of what "opportunism" has to be than what it can be. Anything that contributes in any way to a negative thread climate for a member of the town faction can be opportunistic, especially when the target is exactly DrWilgy. Once the wagon is there, it's a part of the game consciousness even if you move your vote later. You can be certain that mafia that pay attention, pay attention to that. It's an obvious way to mark a player as "viable". Is this exactly what happens in an Ender-mafia world? I really don't know, but I do know that I have seen about eight million mafia use town Wilgy as a piñata.
You sure seem to be using very specific words in very general ways... at least when called out about it.
You didn't explain why that vote is more likely opportunistic, rather than partnered. Is it simply because it is Wilgy? That seems like an extremely low bar and makes reads susceptible to even the most benign of distancing tactics. Also, perhaps things have changed recently, but I don't think I've ever seen Wilgy mischopped (could be wrong, but I can think of at least 3 games where he wasn't and none where he was), so I don't think "especially when the target is exactly DrWilgy" holds much weight.
I'm not going to continue this exchange, all due respect. I've answered your questions/accusations enough, and I don't want this back-and-forth consuming the thread page.
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Mafia Universe
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 1:27 pm
I'm not going to continue this exchange, all due respect. I've answered your questions/accusations enough, and I don't want this back-and-forth consuming the thread page.
You didn't though. I don't see how you can see that vote as more likely to be opportunistic vs distancing, and I asked you about that, and you did not answer. You did describe how it COULD be opportunism, but not why it is more likely opportunism than distancing. Because it COULD be distancing too.
It could be a Fig Newton. "Could" is meaningless. I think it looks more unpartnered and less distancing. That's the judgment call; take it or leave it.
Best Townie, Maffies 4, 8 and 9 Best Scum, Maffies 3 Best Moderator, Maffies 8 and 9 Most Valuable Player, Maffies 7 and 9 Best Roleplay, Maffies 4 and 6 Spirit Award, Maffies 9 Hall of Fame inductee, Maffies 4
Mafia Universe
Mafia Championship Finalist, 2015 and 2020 Best Town Player, 2020
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 1:32 pm
It could be a Fig Newton. "Could" is meaningless. I think it looks more unpartnered and less distancing. That's the judgment call; take it or leave it.
It's a judgement call that you seen unable to back up with any sort of justification. Noted.