Dr. Who Mafia - Night 12

[DFaraday]

Bass surviving again does make me think he's likely a recruit (although probably a recruited Cyberman). I doubt he's the Master because he wouldn't have wasted a lynch switch that first time around, since he would survive anyway.

And I'm glad to have LC back!

EBWOP: Chris, I would have just thought they had the lynch switch as a prize and used it when necessary. But you're right that it would have been smarter in that scenario just to stop the lynch first time around.

EEBWOPBWOP: Bass being a secret role also makes sense.

[keys56000000000]

Generally in games there is a "princess/mayor" role that can switch one lynch per game and stop one. A switch on its own could have been a prize, but a switch and stop, used on the same player at that? It's got to be a princess role, all signs point to one of the ??? secret roles. Who knows the allignment, but it could very well be our mystery Recruiter.

[Chris]

Since zeek didn't ansewr these, I will.

Well why would the recruiter want to stop Bass' lynching twice? I find it curious that the switch was used first. If they were wanting to waste a day and still have Bass lynched the following day, surely using the stop first would have made him appear more Master-like?

That's a very good question zeek.

Now, look further. Ask yourself questions. All the while, asking yourself "Why?"

If the recruiters wanted to make Bass look like The Master, why did they use the switch?

If the recruiters used the switch instead of the stop, why would they prefer the stopswitch? I fucked that one up.

What does a switch do that a stop doesn't do?

What was the end result of the "switch that should have been the stop"?

I think they used the switch to kill TH, on purpose.


I think they wanted TH quieted up fast, because he was talking sense, and the switch was the only way to do it.

It didn't hurt that it prolonged our goal of killing all non civs.

The stop was to also prolong our goal, but to ensure that we continue to go after Bass.


It makes a lot more sense to use a stop first, unless you want to kill someone.

[keys56000000000]

Chris, I could have gone with that scenario if it was just a lynch switch, but using a stop on a third party makes no sense. Those powers are valuble.

[Long Con]

Generally in games there is a "princess/mayor" role that can switch one lynch per game and stop one. A switch on its own could have been a prize, but a switch and stop, used on the same player at that? It's got to be a princess role, all signs point to one of the ??? secret roles. Who knows the allignment, but it could very well be our mystery Recruiter.

I agree, because it would help balance out the lack of kills from that recruiter.

[S~V~S]

Btw Chris.

I think Bass is the Cyber team role checker. I've been saying that. I haven't seen any reason to think otherwise.

I coulda sworn sabie was the role checker though.

Btw MetalMarsh.

Oh yeah, Bass is the role BLOCKER, not checker. Fucked that up last night.

I think you mean Sabie is the role checker, and Bass might be the role blocker.

I'd almost look at Dana (LC) as the role blocker, since Strax and the Master have continued to kill players without being stopped.

No, based on Daisys opinion of Dana, coupled with MPs opinion of Daisy, I have a civ role in mind for Dana/LC. Recruiting is a possibility for anyone, but I doubt Dana would have been recruited due to inactivity, so I doubt LC is anything but a civ.

Nice try bad newt

[Marmot]

No, based on Daisys opinion of Dana, coupled with MPs opinion of Daisy, I have a civ role in mind for Dana/LC. Recruiting is a possibility for anyone, but I doubt Dana would have been recruited due to inactivity, so I doubt LC is anything but a civ.

Nice try bad newt

Only one of two players could be the Dalek #2, and I believe that Daisy is the one. I can't recall, who does MP think that Daisy is, and why did his mind change from early on?

[zeek]

Sorry Chris, RL got in the way there. The switch/stop do seem like likely recruiter powers, given the lack of kill. But does that mean Bass is just a distraction? Probably.

I agree with SVS' assessment of Dana/LC.

[S~V~S]

No, based on Daisys opinion of Dana, coupled with MPs opinion of Daisy, I have a civ role in mind for Dana/LC. Recruiting is a possibility for anyone, but I doubt Dana would have been recruited due to inactivity, so I doubt LC is anything but a civ.

Nice try bad newt

Only one of two players could be the Dalek #2, and I believe that Daisy is the one. I can't recall, who does MP think that Daisy is, and why did his mind change from early on?

He firmly believed Daisy to be civ, and Daisy aggressively defended Dana. You can draw your own lines, I believe. I doubt she was a Dalek. Who was it that proposed MR for the missing Dalek? Chris, maybe? I agree with that. You would have to ask him why he changed his mind, but I think you could draw your own lines there as well

[Chris]

Fuck.


I don't know... but this:

Everyone was very sad to loose the root-tootin'est family that ever lived last night. Today they were out for revenge. And blood. So much fire and passion all around the debates. As usual, The Doctor sat by carelessly wondering if they'd ever figure out what they were doing. "I try to help them," he thought, "but it's so difficult to get a good sonic read on anyone with all this interfearance from the Valeyard. Still I have a trick or two up my sleve!"

Meanwhile the mob began to form. Most people thought Bass was the baddest of bad. There was some debate about Snowy and DF as well, but by and large the concensius was reached that Bass would most definately fill their need for revenge against all these horrible murders.

They took Bass up to the gallows to hang him. He begged them over and over they were making a mistake till finally he just accepted his fate. He quietly let them put the noose around his neck and waited for the door to drop open.



Except it never did.

No one has been Lynched! <snip>

Sounds a lot like this:

After very heated debate, the crowd finally settled between Made and Enrique Suave. After much switching of votes and some collective bargening, it was decided that Made should be unmade.

As they lead him to the hangman, The Doctor appeared before them.

"I'm sick of all this killing. So many of you are my friends and my most trusted, but you are being led astray by blind bloodlust. You need to stop this now!" He tweeked his sonic screwdriver and a screen appeared above the crowd. It played this:



No one has been Lynched! It is now Night. You have 24 hours to do what needs done.

I really hate being wrong... but it's appearing that perhaps Bass could be The Master, that last night wasn't a stop, but a fail?

[zeek]

LOL Chris, surely that would be a good thing? You wanted the Master yesterday!

I don't know if it was a stop or a fail, but if we lynch Bass AGAIN and he isn't the Master then the numbers are really fucking against us!

[Chris]

But Bass voted for me, which is what made me look at him, which is what made me feel VERY certain that he's a Cyber.

If he's The Master, why would he vote me? Wouldn't my being lynched just prove I wasn't The Master? Wouldn't the real Master want me alive to keep taking heat? Wouldn't he want people who survived NKs alive to take suspicion?

I'm not sure if I'm prepared to admit I'm wring about Bass... but it's looking like it's sure as fuck possible.

[Chris]

Chris, I could have gone with that scenario if it was just a lynch switch, but using a stop on a third party makes no sense. Those powers are valuble.

You're right.

The stop didn't make sense.

[Marmot]

If he's The Master, why would he vote me? Wouldn't my being lynched just prove I wasn't The Master? Wouldn't the real Master want me alive to keep taking heat? Wouldn't he want people who survived NKs alive to take suspicion?

I don't think so. There are still other players that could be the master aside from you and Bass and DF. Lynching you would just prove that you're the role we think you are.

[Marmot]

Plus, who thinks you are the Master right now anyway?

[Chris]

What I"m referring to happened on day 7.

[zeek]

Who do you think is the Master, MM?

[Marmot]

Who do you think is the Master, MM?

It's definitely someone under the radar, based on my own abilities, but I don't know if my ability will help anymore. I bet the Master was targeted at some point.

[Chris]

Who do you think is the Master, MM?

I bet the Master was targeted at some point.

I bet yo're still recruited.

[zeek]

I don't believe you.

[keys56000000000]

While I guess it's possible that it wasn't a lynch-stop but a failed lynch, the fact that it came the day after a lynch-switch, saving the same player, leads me to very strongly suspect that a princess role was responsible. Bass doesn't neccessarily have to be that role, but I find it highly unlikely now that the switch and stop were designed to do anything other than save a baddie Bass.

[Tangrowth]

First off, welcome LC 2.0!! It's great to have you, especially because I know you'll be active and I'm 99% sure you're unrecruited civvie. I can't imagine anyone would have recruited Dana.

Second off, I think we need to take anything MM says with a grain of salt, even if his interests may "align" with those of civvies. MR was the missing Dalek; we've discussed this, why is it being brought back up?

Third off, as much as I can appreciate math and analysis (as an accounting PhD student and a total nerd ), I'm not sure I see the point in it right now. What is the point? I frankly just ignore all the fear mongering because no one in this game has 100% idea what's going on here, or anything close. I can't imagine anyway. Too many assumptions. Let's just catch some baddies.

Here are the facts:
1) Bass could be The Master
2) Bass could be a Cyberman
3) Bass could be recruited
4) Bass could be the recruiter

Correct? Even if some agree some are true and some are not true... I personally thought 2 and 3 most of this time; considering we've tried to lynch Bass twice now and it resulted in a switch the first time and a stop the second time, regardless of one's opinion of it or theory, it's clear that one thing is true:

Bass needs to go.

Once we get more details of who Bass actually is, we can start making more informed judgments, instead of relying on unconfirmed assumptions. It doesn't hurt to speculate, in fact I think it's great, but the fear mongering is all based on unconfirmed assumptions which I'm skeptical are ALL true. I think we still have a shot to win this game; we just need to take it one step at a time and analyze the facts.

[zeek]

You've not done much to reassure us your on the civ side, MM, and if you weren't still recruited you'd be helping us by suspecting your former teammate(s).

[Tangrowth]

Also, I laughed at the exchange between keys and LC last night as well. Good stuff, guys.

[Chris]

keys & MP, what would you opinion be on where to proceed if Bass came back as a recruited Master, once lynched?

[keys56000000000]

keys & MP, what would you opinion be on where to proceed if Bass came back as a recruited Master, once lynched?

My guess is that The Master can't be recruited, and at any rate, I don't think Bass is The Master. But I firmly believe Bass will come back bad, and then I say we look at the other people we suspect. My suspects remain the same, I say we lynch DF next.

And I completely agree about ignoring MM. He hasn't given us any infomation on this recruiting team, which is more worrying than reassuring.

[Chris]

That's not what I asked you... but ok.

[Tangrowth]

keys & MP, what would you opinion be on where to proceed if Bass came back as a recruited Master, once lynched?

This is a really good question, Chris.

I'll have to mull on that one. Especially since I didn't even really think Bass as The Master was a decent realistic possibility until what happened yesterday.

Snowy has casually defended Bass for quite some time. But would a teammate be that obvious? I suppose that's my first instinct though. Epig might be another good bet since he's been so noncommittal about Bass. But I'd need to take a good look at how players have interacted with Bass and think about it. I would lean towards a recruiter or other possible teammates NOT wanting to throw Bass under the bus or keep attention away from Bass in such a scenario. Does that seem logical? I don't see how being the first to throw him under the bus would be in the best interest of the team unless if only to confuse people as to who is aligned with him.

I just want to say that another thing we don't know is how many people the recruiter has recruited, or even if that recruiter is still alive. I know the every other night theory seems most likely, but maybe this role has something unique going on and we just don't know. And it seems more likely given an analysis of NKed players that such an individual would be alive at the moment, but we still don't know. We also don't know if the recruiter can recruit ANY player. I know you think it's likely, Chris, but knowing that I haven't been recruited in addition to the possibility of breaking the game it just makes me really skeptical of that. I suppose it could recruit most players though, given Roxy is a Dalek.

keys also brought up an interesting possibility about the alignment of said recruitment team. I don't think it'd be civvie aligned, but maybe it's similar to a role I had in Classic Rock where the alignment of the team changes with the majority alignment of its members? Not sure that's realistic, but it just proves further that we just have little certainty as to how all of this is functioning, so we should keep that in mind before declaring that we're all doomed and give up on analysis.

Linki

[Tangrowth]

I'll see if I can give you a better answer, Chris, but it might not make sense to think about it TOO much until we see what happens tonight, at the least, and possibly tomorrow after the lynch.

I have to go now because I wasted too much time yesterday and Friday in this thread, but I'll be back to simultaneously play MM's Halloween game this evening, so I'll try to check back in then.

[S~V~S]

keys & MP, what would you opinion be on where to proceed if Bass came back as a recruited Master, once lynched?

My guess is that The Master can't be recruited, and at any rate, I don't think Bass is The Master. But I firmly believe Bass will come back bad, and then I say we look at the other people we suspect. My suspects remain the same, I say we lynch DF next.

And I completely agree about ignoring MM. He hasn't given us any infomation on this recruiting team, which is more worrying than reassuring.

I agree totally with this. My guess is that Dr Who and the Master are unrecruitable. I think Bass is both Cyber & a recruit, and I would not be surprised to find more than one Cyber recruited. So I doubt that Bass will come back as the Master.

It would be awesome, but it is very unlikely.

[Chris]

The general consensus is that Bass is bad though, right?

Here's what I was thinking.

Strax could take a shot at Bass tonight. 1 of 2 things will happen. Bass will live, or Bass will die. (Far out, right? )

If Bass dies, he's not The Master, but we're all fairly sure he's bad, so done and done.

If Bass lives, that just further's the idea that he's The Master, and we lynch him tomorrow. (But he'll live if he's The Master)

If we were to get really lucky, both Strax and the Cybers target Bass tonight, using up the rest of his protections (if he's The Master) and then when we lynch him tomorrow, he'll finally die.


Just some thoughts.


LINKI @ SVS: What do you think about this then? ^^^

[keys56000000000]

That's not what I asked you... but ok.

I just really don't think Bass is The Master. You think the stop was one of this 3 lives, I think the stop points to the likelihood of a princess (or perhaps, evil princess recruiter) role. Let's say he is The Master - I doubt even more that The Master is recruitable. It's just a guess from me here but I am confident that there are unrecruitable roles.


But ok, what if Bass comes back as a recruited The Master. Well, idk. Keep going after our top suspects. It's not like we have a list of confirmed baddies to lynch one by one. You want me to get you a menu, decide which baddie you want to take out next, Chris?

linki: I'd be happy with a Bass NK.

[S~V~S]

The general consensus is that Bass is bad though, right?

Here's what I was thinking.

Strax could take a shot at Bass tonight. 1 of 2 things will happen. Bass will live, or Bass will die. (Far out, right? )

If Bass dies, he's not The Master, but we're all fairly sure he's bad, so done and done.

If Bass lives, that just further's the idea that he's The Master, and we lynch him tomorrow. (But he'll live if he's The Master)

If we were to get really lucky, both Strax and the Cybers target Bass tonight, using up the rest of his protections (if he's The Master) and then when we lynch him tomorrow, he'll finally die.


Just some thoughts.


LINKI @ SVS: What do you think about this then? ^^^

I don't think he's the Master. I don't think the Master is recruitable, and I believe he is recruited. But I think we should go one cycle at a time. Lets see what Strax & the Cybers do (I doubt the cybers will target Bass, since I think he is one of them). Planning too far ahead when there are too many unknowns is pointless, IMO. Especially when Faraday is the Master was the thought you had yesterday, now it is Bass.

If Bass dies tonight, then we are free to discuss the Master. If not, I want to lynch him again. I don't think he is the Master, and I think he has to be out of tricks eventually.

[Chris]

No keys.

Never mind.

[S~V~S]

Ebwop, having a secret recruiter role that goes unknown until a recruit is lynched is powerful enough~ having that role be able to recruit any role would be seriously unbalanced, and Bea is a very good balancer. I just don't see a secret recruiter than can recruit Dr Who or the master.

[Chris]

I'll just stop I guess.

[S~V~S]

You don't have to stop, lol. You don't agree with me and I have not stopped.

[keys56000000000]

SVS, let the man stop. With any luck, he'll actually stop, lol.

[keys56000000000]

Opinions on the quiet players? Gotrees? Elohcin? Nijuu?

[Dom]

Opinions on the quiet players? Gotrees? Elohcin? Nijuu?

I asked for those and was laughed out of the room. Maybe you'll have more luck!

[Long Con]

Also, I laughed at the exchange between keys and LC last night as well. Good stuff, guys.

Don't leave out MM! The originator of the deluxe funny!

[Snow Dog]

Opinions on the quiet players? Gotrees? Elohcin? Nijuu?

I asked for those and was laughed out of the room. Maybe you'll have more luck!

I think....who was it, Juliets? Well, she made a goods observation about Gotrees. In that he was super helpful with his poll choice info but nothing much else.

[Marmot]

You've not done much to reassure us your on the civ side, MM, and if you weren't still recruited you'd be helping us by suspecting your former teammate(s).

Sorry that I don't have names. I had a spreadsheet at one point, but I haven't kept up with it since before I was lynched. I didn't think I would be around very long, but I clearly misread that.

Who do you think the Master is?

[Marmot]

Who do you think is the Master, MM?

I bet the Master was targeted at some point.

I bet yo're still recruited.

I'm not denying it.

[Marmot]

Here are the facts:
1) Bass could be The Master
2) Bass could be a Cyberman
3) Bass could be recruited
4) Bass could be the recruiter

Was irony intended here MP?

[Snow Dog]

You've not done much to reassure us your on the civ side, MM, and if you weren't still recruited you'd be helping us by suspecting your former teammate(s).

Sorry that I don't have names. I had a spreadsheet at one point, but I haven't kept up with it since before I was lynched. I didn't think I would be around very long, but I clearly misread that.

Who do you think the Master is?

Who recruited you?

[Marmot]

keys & MP, what would you opinion be on where to proceed if Bass came back as a recruited Master, once lynched?

My guess is that The Master can't be recruited, and at any rate, I don't think Bass is The Master. But I firmly believe Bass will come back bad, and then I say we look at the other people we suspect. My suspects remain the same, I say we lynch DF next.

And I completely agree about ignoring MM. He hasn't given us any infomation on this recruiting team, which is more worrying than reassuring.

What do you want from me? I can only tell you so much without breaking rules, and I've tried dropping hints.

[Snow Dog]

keys & MP, what would you opinion be on where to proceed if Bass came back as a recruited Master, once lynched?

My guess is that The Master can't be recruited, and at any rate, I don't think Bass is The Master. But I firmly believe Bass will come back bad, and then I say we look at the other people we suspect. My suspects remain the same, I say we lynch DF next.

And I completely agree about ignoring MM. He hasn't given us any infomation on this recruiting team, which is more worrying than reassuring.

What do you want from me? I can only tell you so much without breaking rules, and I've tried dropping hints.

Have you? I will reread.

[Long Con]

keys & MP, what would you opinion be on where to proceed if Bass came back as a recruited Master, once lynched?

My guess is that The Master can't be recruited, and at any rate, I don't think Bass is The Master. But I firmly believe Bass will come back bad, and then I say we look at the other people we suspect. My suspects remain the same, I say we lynch DF next.

And I completely agree about ignoring MM. He hasn't given us any infomation on this recruiting team, which is more worrying than reassuring.

What do you want from me? I can only tell you so much without breaking rules, and I've tried dropping hints.

Wouldn't that work against your win condition?

[Dom]

Opinions on the quiet players? Gotrees? Elohcin? Nijuu?

I asked for those and was laughed out of the room. Maybe you'll have more luck!

I think....who was it, Juliets? Well, she made a goods observation about Gotrees. In that he was super helpful with his poll choice info but nothing much else.

She did.
My point was that Dana had 145 posts and was replaced
Post count is not the only measure of participation, but DFaraday, Hedgeowl, amongst others all have less posts than someone who hasn't played since Day 4 or 5 or something. I was wondering if anyone had thoughts on that.