Gym Class Mafia D7

[Cape90]

Then on top of that case Sean has felt real in his frustration about the game kinda dying activity wise

Think he'd just take the win if wolfing

I agree here, mafia would not want to prod others about this

just hammer marmot thankies

[Cape90]

Reasons why Marmot is town:

Spoiler: show

I feel like Wisdoms Alison comment is more likely true than NAAs Lime statement is if only because if Lime is so antagonistic to NAA forcing NAA to wolf would probably be funny as fuck to Lime. I know it would be to me.

LC forced you to wolf didn't he?

This feels kind of a... abrasive (?)... way of bussing. I don't know if I have the right words for it, but I feel like it's Marmot legit wondering if that's what happened, and not him knowing. (Small town-point)

---

Spoiler: show

Townreads thus far

NAA
Cape
Shendog
Wisdom

Null

Everyone else

I'm pretty confident all 4 people in this list are town. A good look. (Small town-point)

---

Spoiler: show

Marmot's entrance is pretty townie.

What have they done that is AI?

Marmot's entranced was relaxed and comfortable. I think they tend to enter kinda stiffly as mafia, and sometimes even play it up because they enjoy leaning into suspicion as a wolf.

Marmot's entrance is pretty townie.

What have they done that is AI?

Marmot's entranced was relaxed and comfortable. I think they tend to enter kinda stiffly as mafia, and sometimes even play it up because they enjoy leaning into suspicion as a wolf.

Compare his entrance here to eg. GOC.

This feels like a TMI read that Alison really believes, rather than trying to force a townread on a partner. (Medium town-point)

---

Spoiler: show

I could see sabi and Alison being teammates based on sabi's treatment of Alison. But also they're two of the three leading wagons, so maybe that's a little bold.

I like the thought process, and i also like the tone of "so maybe that's a little bold". Feels uninformed. (small town-point)

----

Spoiler: show

@Wisdom I think Wilgy is more likely to have himself bussed over bussing another teammate.

I also am trying to think of a world where mafia hellbussed hk, and given that he was a PR, it doesn't seem like an optimal solution. If there are 5-6 mafia, they had plenty of voting power. But maybe the mafia team is just low WIM, and that WIM dropped even lower after that Alison shot.

I realize now I had read the ITA rules incorrectly. I thought we each got a shot in each window, but the reality is that we only get one shot total, so there was no rush to use it.


The reason I was proposing a list and pushing that discussion forward was twofold

1) If there were a 6 wolves, then utilizing all of our KP to eliminate them is important to lower the mafia/town ratio quickly and finding a consensus for who to ITA would be helpful.
2) I have a single Day 2 vig shot, and plan on using it after the second ITA window closes.

Openly claiming a Dayvig as a wolf is usually not a good move. Now he has to shoot into the PoE if he doesn't wanna play the day setting up for a "heroshot" and try to justify himself afterwards when it flips town. So if he does have a dayvig, it's better to just shoot an Obv-town and stay silent. And if he doesn't have one then obviously ppl will realize that at EoD. (BIG town-point)

---

Spoiler: show

hollowkatt ( 7 ) Marmot, Spacedaisy, Wisdom, Cape90, DrWilgy, Seanzie, Sabiplz
sabiplz ( 3 ) Shending_Help, NotAnAxehole, hollowkatt
falcon45ca ( 1 ) dyachei
Wisdom ( 1 ) Alison
Not Voting ( 3 ) dunya, falcon45ca, Jackofhearts2005


Here's the vote count from EOD1 again.

I believe what happened was, in the final minute, Spacedaisy vote for hk to make it a tie between hk and sabi at 5-5. Then sean and I moved our votes from sabi to hk to break the tie.


If sabi is town, I think this is a decent look for Spacedaisy since she sheeped a TR's vote. Ties are scum-sided in this setup, but I SD didn't seem to notice she'd made it a tie, and I'm willing to believe that.

I like this post, both content and tone ("and I'm willing to believe that"). Especially so if Spacedaisy is V (small town-point)

--------


Apart from these posts, I also remember liking Marmot's entry d1, which is a small +, and he felt natural every time I saw him around in the thread.

But ATP I don't even need all the other reasons, I'm pretty much fine calling him town just for the Dayvig-claim

Shending, you keep telling people to go back and look at what you said on Seanzie but you also said this about Marmot.

So at the time, did you believe your case on Sean was better then Marmot?

[Seanzie]

Watch this be 3 townies on town Marmot and wolves don't even vote.

[Cape90]

Reasons I think Sean's town:

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: HK] aubergine is a wolf this game and is to be yeeted at last light.

This is an imperial decree and shall not be revoked.

Yeah, I can get behind this. [VOTE: HallowKatt] aubergine

Think he'd likely distance more actively if bussing (Small town-point)

---

Spoiler: show

► Show Spoiler

It's mainly the "tbh lol" following his Cape vote. It's clearly referencing some thought-process of his that he's hasn't put in the thread yet (which is Rand V in my head)

Again, this hardly makes sense to me. How does saying "tbh lol" signify some kind of thought process that Marmot has?

One doesn't say "tbh lol" without it being referring to something specific (at least i can't see myself doing that). And he hasn't said anything specific regarding you in the thread

It's just kinda randomly thrown out there. It doesn't fit if you're just looking at what's in the thread, so i assume it's referring to something in his own head

I know it's not a super standard read of mine, but it's a thing

I see, upon looking back, I can see how my early game words were kind of scummy like where

Whenever the mafia is ready to awaken and play the game, that would be a good time to play fr

this, even though something I didn't take seriously can be taken as... I think maybe like TMI if I really stretch

or maybe it's how I addressed HK

Well, unless you yourself are just mafia

idk just felt like saying something like that since I didn't find their opener particularly said anything

this is a weird post

idk if scummy though

Try

Spoiler: show

bracket spoiler close bracket, rather than bracket spoil close bracket, it is also the blue "spoiler" button on the full editor, rather than the little eye icon

My spiciest read is that Sean might be TWTBAW

literally just posting "first" and nothing else, and then later popping in with "yeah i can get behind this *votes HK*"

It's far from a solid read, but i kinda believe he'd post *something* else in either of his pop-ins if woofing

Was my post where I asked for new-to-TS people's experience level not CWAC? I don't believe you really have this read on me.

This is a draft game? Lime Coke drafted mafia team...

Well, I'm confirmed town.

1) Lime Coke hates me and would never subject himself to being in a chat with me
2) Lime Coke thinks I'm bad at mafia
3) Lime Coke thinks I'm bad at town

Gym class is easy. I won't post again today, but I'll vote someone later. If I ever die during the day this game, I take no responsibility for it because you should all know better, and those who don't should inform themselves. It's not just like "Lime Coke slightly dislikes this guy"... It's bad.

I agree with this read and also believe it applies to me.

I don't have any hard input on what exact players Limecoke/Brad would pick as mafia or not.

But i do have thoughts.

To balance a game like this the PRs / Mechanics that Lime has available to him must be EXTREMELY strong/interesting. Otherwise there would be no point in picking them over actual extra players in the mafia team. Therefore I strongly believe Limecoke couldn't resist picking at least 2+ of those PR / mechanics that he found the most alure towards, to see how they played out while he's speccing the game.

If he was gonna play too? Then i could see him just picking the max amount of players if he thought that was +EV, but as a spec? It sounds much more interesting to see if the OP mechanics you picked could work out towards a win than if a huge scumteam could pull it through.

TL;DR: i don't think there's 5-6 maf. Think there might even be 2 if i had to bet tbh

I severely doubt there are 2 mafia when roles don't multisask.

I like how he points out a post i missed, and how he says he doesn't believe I have the read. I also like the way he's adding on that he's prolly Town for similar reasons as NAA. With the way he later says that he doesn't wanna go deeper into why for 'thread health reasons' I feel like he isn't just not going into it because the reason doesn't exist. And I feel like he might've as wolf had more motivation to go into the reasons why Lime dislikes him if he's wolfing in order to clear himself. (Small town-point)

---

Spoiler: show

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

serious vote.

Aside from Alison posting her rolecard in the thread, not much has happened, and that should change.

Someone do something that actually makes me feel things before I jokingly give a post-game cred list of four names, which actually ends up perfectly spot on, and everyone congratulates me for bagging the scum team on post 105, and then I don't ever admit it was just a joke list, and for the rest of my days I feel like a phony because my "best" town victory is actually just a sham, all because this current thread is slow.

So uhh... yeah. Somebody do a backflip or TMI someone else or something.

I feel like this super confident/aggressive sass of "Aside from Alison posting her rolecard in the thread..." doesn't give off w/w vibes. (Medium town-point)

---

Spoiler: show

I agree with this read and also believe it applies to me.

I wasn't aware that LC disliked you that strongly.

This reads to me like Alison saw several townies trying to clear themselves for similar reasons (Axe and then Sean), and felt the need to step in to shade the one of them that felt slightly more questionable from an outside perspective. It's very not good for the wolves if the town as a whole accepts those self-draft-related clears. And Alison doesn't even like go hard here, just subtly "does he tho?" so it doesn't feel like distancing either. It makes so much sense to me that Sean is just a villa from this post alone (BIG town-point)

---

Spoiler: show

Spoiler: show

Catch up post: (idk how post numbers work here so bare with me)

Here are the people that stand out to me:

Shending_help:

I really like their tone in this opening posts. Feels very nature and genuine.

Yeah i mean, vibing is what we need rn to get things rolling, hard to go tryhard mode with 50 posts in the thread

And to your response... *fair enough*

I have play a bunch of turbo games with Swede here. When they are wolf they have difficulties articulating reads and feel very stiff and safe. When town they are very brazen and loud with their reads. What I mean is they don't mind dropping controversial takes when town. This post below is very much in their town meta range:

My spiciest read is that Sean might be TWTBAW

literally just posting "first" and nothing else, and then later popping in with "yeah i can get behind this *votes HK*"

It's far from a solid read, but i kinda believe he'd post *something* else in either of his pop-ins if woofing

Anyway I like this post, very much shows Swede being comfortable, showing progression in their thoughts.

I don't have any hard input on what exact players Limecoke/Brad would pick as mafia or not.

But i do have thoughts.

To balance a game like this the PRs / Mechanics that Lime has available to him must be EXTREMELY strong/interesting. Otherwise there would be no point in picking them over actual extra players in the mafia team. Therefore I strongly believe Limecoke couldn't resist picking at least 2+ of those PR / mechanics that he found the most alure towards, to see how they played out while he's speccing the game.

If he was gonna play too? Then i could see him just picking the max amount of players if he thought that was +EV, but as a spec? It sounds much more interesting to see if the OP mechanics you picked could work out towards a win than if a huge scumteam could pull it through.

TL;DR: i don't think there's 5-6 maf. Think there might even be 2 if i had to bet tbh

The last bit about about guessing how many mafia there is feels like a town slip. Yes I think all town slips are fake but this kinda feels real.

All the praise about Swede kinda gone with this post. I feel like as soon as she faced someone familar push back on them their tone got way more stiff. I dunno feels very uncomfortable to me.

Think wisdoms read on HK is villagery. Both the part about HKs treatment of Axe and the analysis of what t!HK would've done

You are also a wolf and this is a pocket attempt!!!

With all the hype (!!!) I can't decipher if you're joking or not, but maybe thats by design

But...

No I swear I'm not!!!

Seanzie turn:

He had a weird first page opening that I don't even want to register as.

Anyway I do like this post from them but also it feels like they are just saying words for the sake of saying words and don't actually mean it. He wants to appear like oh hey look at me spittingniut buzz words.

CWAC - Contribute without actually contributing. Anything that has the "feeling" of moving the game forward without really having an impact. Often comes in the form of questions that don't go anywhere. Wolves and town both do it, but wolves will sometimes do only CWAC and IIoA (information instead of analysis) in hopes that townies don't spot that they really aren't positively impacting the gamestate.

Yes, multitask, that was a typo. TS is not MS, so this is not gospel here, but: https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Multitasking. From what I can tell of what Nook wrote, I think it is clear that mafia members could be assigned multiple roles, but they'd only be able to use one role per night (they can use their role and carry the NK on the same night though), so LC is unlikely to take more roles than mafia members (aside from a few edge cases where maybe they took a role useless for scum in order to keep it from town).

I dunno how I feel about everyone analyzing the draft and analyzing Brad (lc) decision making. We're teams decided before or after knowing it's mafia?

Anyway to wisom

Think wisdoms read on HK is villagery. Both the part about HKs treatment of Axe and the analysis of what t!HK would've done

You are also a wolf and this is a pocket attempt!!!

…. I don't think this was pockety at all. Feels kinda forced. Same with Sweden response to it. I don't like it.

I'm the doctor.

Also Alison is 100% someone Brad/BlueKang/LimeCoke would first pick as mafia.

Why would Brad pick Alison to be mafia? AFAIK Alison gets sr easily due to her unorthodox play style and philosophy of the game which causes people not to tr her.

Hate this opening of falcon.
[

Imma 'bout to get blasted.



It's Morphin' Time!

This is very towny tone and voice by cape. He's seems relaxed. I hate the overexplanation of being afk tho.

Yeah i mean, vibing is what we need rn to get things rolling, hard to go tryhard mode with 50 posts in the thread

And to your response... *fair enough*

Yeah, and not to mention that I want to kinda use at least 45 posts today if possible because I am busy tomorrow and won't be able to post much (will still try to read everything but don't expect high ;level of activity and if i survive into day 2, might make catch-up )

It's also hard to tryhard when I don't particularly have hard stances on really anything though I am getting pretty okay vibes from this prodding around you are doing so far

Why are we spending so much time analyzing Brad. I'm the #1bradxpert. I will expand more on why I hate these posts tomorrow.

This is a draft game? Lime Coke drafted mafia team...

Well, I'm confirmed town.

1) Lime Coke hates me and would never subject himself to being in a chat with me
2) Lime Coke thinks I'm bad at mafia
3) Lime Coke thinks I'm bad at town

Gym class is easy. I won't post again today, but I'll vote someone later. If I ever die during the day this game, I take no responsibility for it because you should all know better, and those who don't should inform themselves. It's not just like "Lime Coke slightly dislikes this guy"... It's bad.

Anyway goijg to bed. I want to say stuff but I have all day tomorrow to explain. Gn

I find it interesting that out of all my posts, you choose one which is me explaining two terms to someone who specifically asked about then... and then give a backhanded town read of it while accusing me of just using buzzwords. Also, by interesting, I really mean suspicious.

I agree with this read and also believe it applies to me.

I wasn't aware that LC disliked you that strongly.

I'm not going to get into it for threadhealth reasons, but I stand by my initial claim.

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

serious vote.

Why?

Your initial vote on Cape and your follow up. You never explained why you were voting, and the "Why did you think emotes was the reason for the vote?" just really feels a lot more like a question for the sake of a question rather than you really digging at anything (can you give an example of an AI answer to that question?). Now, you've seemed to indirectly claim that this was just a vote to get the game going, which is fine in it's own right, but IME, people who do that are almost always strongly overstating a real (but weak) thought, rather than just making suspicion completely up, so a lack of explanation for the vote is concerning. Why did you vote Cape?

I almost forgot about this game

I think the only v read i have right now is NAA

Also good to play with you again SS!

I marked this as town? because I find forgetting games town indicative but of course that's fakeable so it's more like a temporary read.

I am of the opposite opinion. While I agree it is towny to actually forget about the game, I think it is probably very slightly >rand!wolf to TALK about forgetting about the game (I know I've definitely claimed I "forgot" about a game as scum, when in reality I am actually just overly-concious of the fact that I didn't post early in the game, whereas if I was town and late, I'd just dive in without feeling like my absence needed to be excused [unless the absence was remarkably long, but that is not the case here])

If I was the town drafter, I'd just focus on drafting good solvers that can clear themselves easily. dunia, dyachei, Seanzie.

If I was the mafia drafter, I'd flip a coin. If it lands on heads I just make a list of who I think is best at wolfing in this game in order, and then draft down the list. If it lands on tails I'd draft one strong player (probably dunia, or dyachei if dunia is taken) and then fill the rest with players that either tend to be quieter presences (Wilgy, Spacedaisy) or players that most people wouldn't expect me to draft either because I haven't gotten along with them in the past or because I don't know them (Axe, Cape, Shending).

I kind of hope the town drafter did not choose people. IME hand-picked scum teams are easier to catch than randomized ones, and the town drafter picking townies gets in the way of this. Unfortunately, I do not really understand Rondo very well, so I don't know what to expect from them. LC though I kind of think he'd use a straightforward with the possibility of one or maybe two wildcards, but I don't think I'd try to guess who the wildcards are, as that seems like a dubious exercise (I am offhandedly accusing you of having an agenda in this post btw).

Adding SS to town pile.

Am I correct in assuming SS is Shending?

(here's the post with the 'thread health reasons' I referred to earlier)

There's other things I like from this post too, especially the comment of "I kind of hope the town drafter did not choose people. IME hand-picked scum teams are easier to catch than randomized ones, and the town drafter picking townies gets in the way of this". That's a really towny thought to have IMO. I hadn't even considered it myself from that perspective before I read this, it's just such a towny thought. (Medium town-point)

---

Spoiler: show

Your initial vote on Cape and your follow up. You never explained why you were voting, and the "Why did you think emotes was the reason for the vote?" just really feels a lot more like a question for the sake of a question rather than you really digging at anything (can you give an example of an AI answer to that question?). Now, you've seemed to indirectly claim that this was just a vote to get the game going, which is fine in it's own right, but IME, people who do that are almost always strongly overstating a real (but weak) thought, rather than just making suspicion completely up, so a lack of explanation for the vote is concerning. Why did you vote Cape?

I answer both of your questions in #133. To reiterate: I thought his reference to mafia waking up was a lame attempt to be all "hello fellow townies, this sure is a townie thread, the mafia probably hasn't woken up, amiright?" So I voted him. It's a thin read, but more than enough for page 1.

He responded by defensively claiming that "he just wanted to try out the emotes". This deepened my suspicion, because at no point did I give any indication that it was about the emotes. The pre-emptive excuse-making re: emote usage suggests a guilty conscience, or him seeing his emote usage as scummier than it is because he's a wolf. This is why I asked him if he had any reason to believe I pushed him for emote usage.

This feels like Alison trying to genuinely justify her thought process to Sean, which wouldn't be necessary if w/w (Medium town-point)

---

Spoiler: show

Because you typically make posts I want to wolf read!
Just so happens this time you didn't

Differences between the ways Wisdom is posting mow vs how they usually post?

Most often it's a weird early read that she has, or a push that she makes that I think is wrong/on obvs town, or she doesn't have a read I would expect her to have. I don't see that going on here so I'm offering up an early town read

Is Wisdom usually town or wolf when you wolfread her early for this sort of thing?

she's usually town and her pushes are usually town as well.

So you're townreading her for not doing things that she usually does as town? You're gonna have to unpack this one for me.

Adding onto the HK pressure in a very believable way. Doesn't feel like he's just jumping onto the HK push for cred, but has genuine gripes with HK's logic (Medium town-point)

I will say to be fair you gave more points to Seanzie less for purely mechanical reasons versus Marmot

[Cape90]

Shen I would like to look at more because i feel a bit blank there

Shen posted a lot so idk how you have like 0 opinions there

[Cape90]

I don’t know why Dolby subbed in for me. I probably missed it in the mechanics. But I was replaced for a day basically and we had chat during that time.

This part is interesting and I am surprised nobody really talked about it

Thoughts anyone?

[Seanzie]

I don’t know why Dolby subbed in for me. I probably missed it in the mechanics. But I was replaced for a day basically and we had chat during that time.

This part is interesting and I am surprised nobody really talked about it

Thoughts anyone?

I also found this very weird, and don't really know what to make of it. If this is a role ability, it is one of the weirdest ones I've seen. It could be some sort of mechanic, but again a weird one that I don't really understand the point of. Without further information about it, I have just been disregarding it.

1/18 (marking my remaining posts so I don't accidentally go over)

[Seanzie]

Falcon, come talk to us.

[DrWilgy]

He's dead jim

[Seanzie]

He's dead jim

He's viewing the thread. I unvoted when I saw that just in case he was coming in to snipe

3/18

[Cape90]

so falcon exists then

[Shending_Help]

Reasons why Marmot is town:

Spoiler: show

I feel like Wisdoms Alison comment is more likely true than NAAs Lime statement is if only because if Lime is so antagonistic to NAA forcing NAA to wolf would probably be funny as fuck to Lime. I know it would be to me.

LC forced you to wolf didn't he?

This feels kind of a... abrasive (?)... way of bussing. I don't know if I have the right words for it, but I feel like it's Marmot legit wondering if that's what happened, and not him knowing. (Small town-point)

---

Spoiler: show

Townreads thus far

NAA
Cape
Shendog
Wisdom

Null

Everyone else

I'm pretty confident all 4 people in this list are town. A good look. (Small town-point)

---

Spoiler: show

Marmot's entrance is pretty townie.

What have they done that is AI?

Marmot's entranced was relaxed and comfortable. I think they tend to enter kinda stiffly as mafia, and sometimes even play it up because they enjoy leaning into suspicion as a wolf.

Marmot's entrance is pretty townie.

What have they done that is AI?

Marmot's entranced was relaxed and comfortable. I think they tend to enter kinda stiffly as mafia, and sometimes even play it up because they enjoy leaning into suspicion as a wolf.

Compare his entrance here to eg. GOC.

This feels like a TMI read that Alison really believes, rather than trying to force a townread on a partner. (Medium town-point)

---

Spoiler: show

I could see sabi and Alison being teammates based on sabi's treatment of Alison. But also they're two of the three leading wagons, so maybe that's a little bold.

I like the thought process, and i also like the tone of "so maybe that's a little bold". Feels uninformed. (small town-point)

----

Spoiler: show

@Wisdom I think Wilgy is more likely to have himself bussed over bussing another teammate.

I also am trying to think of a world where mafia hellbussed hk, and given that he was a PR, it doesn't seem like an optimal solution. If there are 5-6 mafia, they had plenty of voting power. But maybe the mafia team is just low WIM, and that WIM dropped even lower after that Alison shot.

I realize now I had read the ITA rules incorrectly. I thought we each got a shot in each window, but the reality is that we only get one shot total, so there was no rush to use it.


The reason I was proposing a list and pushing that discussion forward was twofold

1) If there were a 6 wolves, then utilizing all of our KP to eliminate them is important to lower the mafia/town ratio quickly and finding a consensus for who to ITA would be helpful.
2) I have a single Day 2 vig shot, and plan on using it after the second ITA window closes.

Openly claiming a Dayvig as a wolf is usually not a good move. Now he has to shoot into the PoE if he doesn't wanna play the day setting up for a "heroshot" and try to justify himself afterwards when it flips town. So if he does have a dayvig, it's better to just shoot an Obv-town and stay silent. And if he doesn't have one then obviously ppl will realize that at EoD. (BIG town-point)

---

Spoiler: show

hollowkatt ( 7 ) Marmot, Spacedaisy, Wisdom, Cape90, DrWilgy, Seanzie, Sabiplz
sabiplz ( 3 ) Shending_Help, NotAnAxehole, hollowkatt
falcon45ca ( 1 ) dyachei
Wisdom ( 1 ) Alison
Not Voting ( 3 ) dunya, falcon45ca, Jackofhearts2005


Here's the vote count from EOD1 again.

I believe what happened was, in the final minute, Spacedaisy vote for hk to make it a tie between hk and sabi at 5-5. Then sean and I moved our votes from sabi to hk to break the tie.


If sabi is town, I think this is a decent look for Spacedaisy since she sheeped a TR's vote. Ties are scum-sided in this setup, but I SD didn't seem to notice she'd made it a tie, and I'm willing to believe that.

I like this post, both content and tone ("and I'm willing to believe that"). Especially so if Spacedaisy is V (small town-point)

--------


Apart from these posts, I also remember liking Marmot's entry d1, which is a small +, and he felt natural every time I saw him around in the thread.

But ATP I don't even need all the other reasons, I'm pretty much fine calling him town just for the Dayvig-claim

Shending, you keep telling people to go back and look at what you said on Seanzie but you also said this about Marmot.

So at the time, did you believe your case on Sean was better then Marmot?

Yes

And then more importantly, my BIG town point on Marmot ended up being false when I figured out his shot was mod announced. I thought it was silent at the time (it was first in the start of this day that Sean told me otherwise)

[Cape90]

it's better to just shoot an Obv-town and stay silent

Yeah I suppose what you just said lines up with what you put here

[Seanzie]

Really worried that Shen and/or Cape are pulling one over on me right now and Marmot is just down, but I think this is just EoD jitters and I am thinking it is best to just stay the course.

4/18

[DrWilgy]

Zzz

[VOTE: Marmot] aubergine

Don't think anyone else is showing. We've had all opportunity anyhow.

Hopefully this doesn't end the game.

[Seanzie]

Shen

Wilgy
Cape

Falcon

Daisy

Marmot

Probably where I'm at right now. The Wilgy/Cape group IS sorted, but I don't feel so strongly that I wanted to include them without a space there. I'm a bit worried about leaving a legacy that says the wolves are just the nearly-no-shows, so be wary tomorrow (especially give Cape a good look at; their play today really wasn't great, but becore today I felt okay about then).

5/18

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Thread locked, no posting

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Marmot ( 4 ) Shending_Help, DrWilgy, Seanzie, Cape90
Not Voting ( 3 ) falcon45ca, Marmot, spacedaisy

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

@Marmot has died! He was...MAFIA! One shot Loud Even Day Vig

The game continues!

Actions due by July 26, 6pm eastern. Day will start about an hour after that.

Spoiler: show

@ Cape90
@ DrWilgy
@ falcon45ca
@ Seanzie
@ Shending_Help
@ Spacedaisy

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Contrary to what the title says, yesterday was day four and it is now night 4. Apologies for any confusion.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

In the night!

@Seanzie dies. He flips town, unaware tryhard:

in ITAs has a 20% hit rate and will survive the first shot that hits them. [Redacted]

This is F5. Town must vote correctly or lose. Votes are NOT locked. Hammer is 3. EOD is July 28, 7pm eastern.

Spoiler: show

@ Cape90
@ DrWilgy
@ falcon45ca
@ Shending_Help
@ Spacedaisy

[Shending_Help]

I'm surprised we got this far tbh. Wp sean

[Shending_Help]

I'm gonna ISO Marmot later, but unless I find something unexpected I'll be voting Spacedaisy pretty early this phase and hope for the best

The only problem with this is that if the wolfteam isn't exactly daisy/falcon, and falcon stays Afk, then the vote might end 2-2 and wolves win through a tie

[Cape90]

I really think I am in for voting falcon or Spacedaisy.

Shending, you still have not gave opinions on what you think of the whole Spacedaisy and Dolby having a secret chat thing or whatever

[Cape90]

We also cannot sleep tonight, we have to decide today who we are going

[Cape90]

If Marmot was loud Even day vig, thewy could have shot last day right?

It would be pretty silly if mafia just threw away wincon like that

[Cape90]

Oh hold on, it is one-shot never mind

[Cape90]

Spoiler: show

hollowkatt ( 7 ) Marmot, Spacedaisy, Wisdom, Cape90, DrWilgy, Seanzie, Sabiplz
sabiplz ( 3 ) Shending_Help, NotAnAxehole, hollowkatt
falcon45ca ( 1 ) dyachei
Wisdom ( 1 ) Alison
Not Voting ( 3 ) dunya, falcon45ca, Jackofhearts2005


Here's the vote count from EOD1 again.

I believe what happened was, in the final minute, Spacedaisy vote for hk to make it a tie between hk and sabi at 5-5. Then sean and I moved our votes from sabi to hk to break the tie.


If sabi is town, I think this is a decent look for Spacedaisy since she sheeped a TR's vote. Ties are scum-sided in this setup, but I SD didn't seem to notice she'd made it a tie, and I'm willing to believe that.

I did not make it a tie. My vote put him at 5 over i think Sabi or someone at 4. Then you all moved your votes, probably because I voted and then I posted my vote since I only had two minutes until the poll ended.

@Wisdom what I meant. By liking you, was that immediately before my vote, you said something that struck me as very townie and since I was very much going on hit reads of people, I liked the look. I was already leaning voting he because sabi didn’t read to my gut as bad, so when I saw you had also voted there, I felt more confident in that choice based on my limited info at that time.

Back to catching up now.

It wasn’t a tie when I voted I don’t believe. Or if it was I didn’t know it.

There's a disconnect in these two posts from Spacedaisy. On EOD1, she claimed to not make the Day 1 vote a tie. On Day 2, she also claimed to not break a tie.

I'm oretty darn certain that Spacedaisy made the vote a tie, and Sean and I broke the tie. It's possible someone else was moving votes at the time too, but I don't think it was anyone but Spacedaisy.


I don't think either of these actions are scummy (and breaking the tie would be townie), but I think it's odd that she denied doing either of them.


I wish she could be here to talk about it, but we have Dolby who doesn't know.

@Wisdom gg friend, was nice finding each other In a game for once. I had a feeling you weren't gonna be allowed to stick around

Sorry sabi

@Dolby heyo! Gonna be interesting to see if an outside perspective is gonna land in the same towncore as most of the ppl alrdy playing have

How much have you read?

Imma be blunt

I think your post surrounding HK up to about 150 (where I’ve read to) are wolfy.

Wilgy is probs town

I have a chat with Spacedaisy and she thinks that Dunya is a wolf and marmot is town and she kinda just dipped recently

1 min Before flip I called you/cape/Dunya the PoE

I'm glad we can have a fresh perspective on the game, but why do you think Cape and dunya are poe? I see your reasoning for Shen, I need to go back and look at those posts.



Overall, I still think Spacedaisy/Dolby are slight town or at least outer POE. Outer POE mostly due to lack of Spacedaisy sharing content or reads, but townie because of the Day 1 HK vote.

Marmot, am I still a scum read?

Reading your ISO now.

Today, I will not make the same mistake that I made yesterday, and attempt to conserve posts.

~~~~~~~~~

I still think you're town. I know I've waffled on your slot, but I've found your explanations for your reads believable, and more townie than not for you.

Both your reads on Jack and HK stemmed from experiences in previous games, and in particular, given that your read on Jack in P#602 was wrong (and he was town), I think it's more likely that you're town, because I think you would have trouble pushing someone like Jack if you were scum. I know I would, and I don't think of either of us as being good enough wolves for that.

sabiplz ( 4 ) Seanzie, dyachei, Wisdom, Shending_Help
dyachei ( 2 ) Cape90, DrWilgy
falcon45ca ( 1 ) dunya
Not Voting ( 4 ) falcon45ca, sabiplz, spacedaisy, marmot

Here's the VC from Day 2. I'm looking at this in the scenario that dya is a wolf who was saved.

Sean was the first vote on the Sabi wagon here (or at least that's how Nanook logged it).


I don't think that Shen is a wolf based on Sean's push today. If Sean and Shen are wolves, I don't think they would have much trouble winning this game, even if they were the only two wolves left.

This VC probably points to DrWilgy and Cape as town if dya is a wolf.

dunya is town either way


Which means that any of the final wolves could be in falcon/spacedaisy.


Hmmm.

Cape is another possibility? He did prod at me last night when Sean was pushing me.

I did cross votes with Sean, but I've also already laid out why I think Hess a wolf here, albeit dunya explained it way better than I did.

Sean, can you not see why that makes sense from my pov?

Your reads on both me and Dya are purely associative, so no, I don't give associative reads much credit, and you don't hardpush like I do, so I don't see your read on me making much sense. You also say I didn't do much D1 when I was one of the biggest Alison critics and my vote (not yours) was the one who buried HK.

Where did I say you didn't do much Day 1?

Why are you now suddenly claiming to make the burying vote on hk? At the time, the votes all came in at the same time (albeit I think Spacedaisy made the tie). Why claim that now when I'm pushing you and not when it happened?

Inside the spoiler is some spew off of Marmot's posts. I think Marmot definately talked the least about Shending and DrWigly out of the alive players overall

Oh and Sean did look pretty spewed + he's dead so I mostly ignored anything concerning them.

[DrWilgy]

Pretty sure remaining wolves are Shending Falcon.

If not that it's Daisy Falcon.

May as well just vote Falcon and go from there I think.

[Shending_Help]

Pretty sure remaining wolves are Shending Falcon.

If not that it's Daisy Falcon.

May as well just vote Falcon and go from there I think.

Very interesting. Why me over daisy?

[Shending_Help]

When Dunya (now confirmed town) started taking Marmots side and pushing Sean (now confirmed town) hard i was still talking about how Sean and Marmot were both town and yelling at them to unvote so we could dya. Id like to see you argue what my wolf thought process went at the time

[DrWilgy]

Pretty sure remaining wolves are Shending Falcon.

If not that it's Daisy Falcon.

May as well just vote Falcon and go from there I think.

Very interesting. Why me over daisy?

Because you suggested Daisy as a line over Marmot yesterday, plus your shift in read on Marmot still feels awkward.

Also, I have no clue as to why'd you argue Daisy over Falcon.

Obvious answer is you needed to misyeet Diasy and the best way to do that was to bus Marmot when Sean was already all in, otherwise you reveal the full team.

[Shending_Help]

When Dunya (now confirmed town) started taking Marmots side and pushing Sean (now confirmed town) hard i was still talking about how Sean and Marmot were both town and yelling at them to unvote so we could dya. Id like to see you argue what my wolf thought process went at the time

This WHILE sean/Marmot were crossvoting. I could just lay low / silently egg the fight on and then vote Sean at the end

[Shending_Help]

Pretty sure remaining wolves are Shending Falcon.

If not that it's Daisy Falcon.

May as well just vote Falcon and go from there I think.

Very interesting. Why me over daisy?

Because you suggested Daisy as a line over Marmot yesterday, plus your shift in read on Marmot still feels awkward.

Also, I have no clue as to why'd you argue Daisy over Falcon.

Obvious answer is you needed to misyeet Diasy and the best way to do that was to bus Marmot when Sean was already all in, otherwise you reveal the full team.

What about it was awkward?

Dya was pushing super hard to get falcon killed before she died and spearheaded a Cfd on him d1.
And daisy hasn't been towny when here Imo
And Dolby came into the game with a very wolfy POE of me/cape/dunya (I'm almost sure this = 3 townies)

Sure I still think falc /daisy is the most likely team, but your game view is making me very sacred of a you/daisy world

[Shending_Help]

Does it not make you stop for at least a moment that a very large % of the active flipped townies (at the very least Jack/wisdom/Sean) have had me in their top towns Wilgy?

Like I don't know If I believe your "I'm pretty sure it's falc/shending"

[Shending_Help]

If Marmot was loud Even day vig, thewy could have shot last day right?

It would be pretty silly if mafia just threw away wincon like that

This post adds onto my confidence Cape is town even more

[Shending_Help]

Meta case on hk

OK I isoed HK and I have first hand knowledge of mafia HK, wolfsided town HK, and town HK. The whole spectrum of HK. I will compare with his mu games so bear with me.

P#77 (I think I'm formating this correct) has no explanation of his reads. Doesn't expand or go into detail. Town HK and wolfsided town HK (Albert like V briefly) goes into somewhat detail of his reads. He usually just doesn't do townreads but includes other types of reads.

P#78 feels pockety. HK tends to do this in his town meta

P#87 HK when town tries to not ruffle feathers. The fact he keeps butting head with someone he supposedly tr and trying to pocket (which is conflicting from earlier) is not what he does as town.

Him constantly antagonizing her p#100. He does this thing where he twists what someone says to go under their skin. He has done this to me when maf. He loves blaming others for when he incorrectly sr them.

Last part p#124 is HK has their weird expectation where he needs people to do stuff that his brain decided is the only way to do things. That's NAI for him but just want to point that out.


Summery: he's more in his mafia range than not.

[VOTE: sabi] aubergine

You've literally got everything backwards, but ok

I think I've come to the conclusion that this is w/w or w/v. I thought I might be able to narrow it down more but it doesnt feel like it cant be aligned

wisdom, shending, marmot, and wigly can be town

what's *your* reason for wigly?

Pleasure to meet you new friends.

Allow me to introduce myself. My name is DrWilgy and I am most definitely a doctor.

I used to claim doctor d1 every game, but have become old and grumpy in my recent age. Have been playing since 2013. Exclusively on the Syndicate since about 2015?

I may be wrong on this assumption, but out of this player cast, Alison and Marmot may have the best capacity and track record for reading me. Though, that may be them getting lucky tossing darts, as many others seem to have inconsistency on determining both my scum and town range.

[VOTE: HK] aubergine is a wolf this game and is to be yeeted at last light.

This is an imperial decree and shall not be revoked.

I like both of these posts. I don't find Wigly being quite this confident in a read this early in a game when he's a wolf

My reason for very lightly V leaning him is that 2nd post too. Why did you like the 1st one?

If Wigly is a wolf and not paired with Alison and/or Marmot that post says "hey, maybe we (alison and/or marmot) should dig deeper into wigly" and I don't think he's the kind of player who wants to draw that kind of attention.

i kind of don't like this from hk? Feels really light for a v read? and I really don't get the last point at all

wisdom, shending, marmot, and wigly can be town

and then puts him further up

kind of concerned his read on wilgy is trying to clear another wolf

@Wisdom thoughts?

fwiw, I do think he spewed you v

Think this is an okay look for Wilgy, especially since dya had put him as one of their top 3 towns in an earlier list

The way she's appealing to wisdom with their shade looks more like w/v than not

[Shending_Help]

Get the dead out of the thread [Falcon]

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

Get the dead out of the thread [Falcon]

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

Sure, if w/w dya and Marmot mightve felt the need to keep the distancing going even when came to ITA shots since falc was dead weight, but this is another reason why I wanna kill Daisy first.

[Shending_Help]

I'm pretty damn sure Cape is V for a lot of reasons. So it's 2/3 of Wilgy/daisy/falc. Wilgy going hard for falc makes me feel even more certain daisy is the right choice today. I'm just gonna vote right now actually and we'll see what happens.

If it's just the easy team of falc/daisy we might actually still lose from Wilgy misvoting, but I have to vote my most confident wolf here.

@Cape90 do I have your support in laying down my vote right away?

[Shending_Help]

I truly think Dolbys world view of me/cape/dunya being the team is a horrendous look for him

[Shending_Help]

Wanna add tension? I'm down to start a cfd, I got 3 lvls of spicyness for you:

Spice lv 0: falcon

Spice lv 1: Jack

Spice lv 2: Alison

... Thoughts?

We have a 40% chance to hit a wolf (right?).

I'm down for spice level 0 or 1. Or 4.


falcon his been misyeeted early in the last few games I've played with him, but he at least tried to post content in those games.

[VOTE: falcon] aubergine

Marmot also followed the d1 cfd on falcon

[Shending_Help]

@Wisdom I think Wilgy is more likely to have himself bussed over bussing another teammate.

I also am trying to think of a world where mafia hellbussed hk, and given that he was a PR, it doesn't seem like an optimal solution. If there are 5-6 mafia, they had plenty of voting power. But maybe the mafia team is just low WIM, and that WIM dropped even lower after that Alison shot.

I realize now I had read the ITA rules incorrectly. I thought we each got a shot in each window, but the reality is that we only get one shot total, so there was no rush to use it.


The reason I was proposing a list and pushing that discussion forward was twofold

1) If there were a 6 wolves, then utilizing all of our KP to eliminate them is important to lower the mafia/town ratio quickly and finding a consensus for who to ITA would be helpful.
2) I have a single Day 2 vig shot, and plan on using it after the second ITA window closes.

Don't love this

[Shending_Help]

I truly think Dolbys world view of me/cape/dunya being the team is a horrendous look for him

To expand on this:
Dolby was only here for a few posts, but it felt to me like a wolf entering the game having read nothing, noticing Its lylo and just deciding to push a complete wolf sided POE and trying to get at least 1 of then through for the win before he has to really defend any his world view too deeply . His whole demeanor seemed kinda agenda'y to me

[Shending_Help]

I don't actually want to shoot SD, I have her just outside of poe. I'm just putting her there because Shen asked me to.

Oof

[Shending_Help]

Pls tell me all about how I'm not spewed by marmot/dya this game

[Shending_Help]

W/e imma follow my heart

[VOTE: Spacedaisy] aubergine glgl

I believe in you guys

[Shending_Help]

@falcon45ca
@falcon45ca
@falcon45ca
@falcon45ca
@falcon45ca

[Shending_Help]

If Wilgy SD is the team, Cape votes right and it ends with a 2-2 vote I'll be pretty pissed

[Shending_Help]

I'm going to bed.

Gn and gl.

@Cape90 if you're unsure at all, @ me with any questions you can think of thatd help you lock me in as V

And if youre sure I'm V, please spend your time explaining to Wilgy why I'm town, because in the SD/falc world you convincing Wilgy that I'm V would be the game winning play. I have a feeling me talking to him will just tunnel him harder if he's V

[Spacedaisy]

I'm gonna ISO Marmot later, but unless I find something unexpected I'll be voting Spacedaisy pretty early this phase and hope for the best

The only problem with this is that if the wolfteam isn't exactly daisy/falcon, and falcon stays Afk, then the vote might end 2-2 and wolves win through a tie

Huge mistake to vote me and it should be obvious. Think about it. Marmot tried his hardest to make me look bad surrounding the voting fiasco of Day 1. I should have been an easy lock town, I voted on HK with two minutes left when the votes were in flux and I could have turned it towards Sabi and saved a mafia member. But I didn't. He was trying to pain me bad, he didn't want any lock towns to come of that. The only thing I am guilty of is being too busy and sick irl and thus absent from the game. I am not a wolf.