No I read it. And you. I don't have you cleared
Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Game Over
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- NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
He popped in during a point in time where it was theoretically possible for the D1 exe to switch from Sparkles to lucy in order to say that he thinks lucy's meta matches up with her claims. If the team is Sparkles/Nanook, I would think that he would be more likely to leave lucy on the table as a possible misexe.
He also committed to voting whoever Wilgy voted fairly early on in the day. If the team is Sparkles/Nanook, Nanook is giving up a mafia vote in order to make a strong consensus town a doublevoter. That would be quite damaging to his team.
These are my reasons for townreading Nanook. They are not as strong as my reasons for the others, and so I have him as my top suspect if my immediate POE (lucy and then you) doesn't end the game.
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
Alison and Lucy can both easily fit in the poe. It's fine. This is a pointless argument.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
I am comfortable being in the POE as long as my suspects are too.
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
AgreedNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Aug 28, 2022 12:47 pm Alison and Lucy can both easily fit in the poe. It's fine. This is a pointless argument.
I'm not quite ready to add Jay to the POE

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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
Hey, not much, you?
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
....Marmot wrote: ↑Sun Aug 28, 2022 12:50 pmAgreedNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Aug 28, 2022 12:47 pm Alison and Lucy can both easily fit in the poe. It's fine. This is a pointless argument.
I'm not quite ready to add Jay to the POE
Why would you?
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
There are a few moments of interest in Sparkles' posts about Alison I want to bring up:
This was the first thing Sparkles posted that triggered my suspicions, as it's a pretty classic tell that I've encountered many times over the last decade --> mafia enters a thread, sees two townies filling thread space with hand-to-hand combat, and high-roads the fight by dismissing both as town reads. This doesn't have to imply that both Alison and falcon are town, but that would be my first guess if I am looking at only this post in a vacuum. That would represent a fundamental mistake on Sparkles' part, and I think it's plausible enough that Sparkles would have made that mistake.
This entire exchange says a lot to me. Consider the direction of the read on both sides of the coin here. Sparkles has opened with a town read of Alison, so if they're teammates she hadn't opted for distancing as her opening move. She sustained that into this dialogue with the orange bit, and only later turned against Alison (see next post). Sparkles had town read Alison, and it led to this conflict with Alison voting Sparkles because of that town read. That doesn't strike me as coordinated. I also griped with the green bit later, just as a comment that looks bad at face value, and it extends the prior point. This is basically a textbook example of "caught for the wrong reasons", and when that shows up, in my experience tends to be directed by mafia at town.
When Sparkles turned against Alison, I think it would be fair to say that she did so only on the heels of other players (by explicitly assigning them credit). Here's an example with Marmot, and the quote above is another with Sabiplz. If Alison is mafia, these engagements by Sparkles with her have already been drained of much of their distancing power -- because that credit is being handed to other people. Indeed, Sparkles is giving the responsibility to other people. That was especially apparent in her dialogue with Sabiplz.
These would be town indicators for Alison.
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This was the first thing Sparkles posted that triggered my suspicions, as it's a pretty classic tell that I've encountered many times over the last decade --> mafia enters a thread, sees two townies filling thread space with hand-to-hand combat, and high-roads the fight by dismissing both as town reads. This doesn't have to imply that both Alison and falcon are town, but that would be my first guess if I am looking at only this post in a vacuum. That would represent a fundamental mistake on Sparkles' part, and I think it's plausible enough that Sparkles would have made that mistake.
Spoiler: show
This entire exchange says a lot to me. Consider the direction of the read on both sides of the coin here. Sparkles has opened with a town read of Alison, so if they're teammates she hadn't opted for distancing as her opening move. She sustained that into this dialogue with the orange bit, and only later turned against Alison (see next post). Sparkles had town read Alison, and it led to this conflict with Alison voting Sparkles because of that town read. That doesn't strike me as coordinated. I also griped with the green bit later, just as a comment that looks bad at face value, and it extends the prior point. This is basically a textbook example of "caught for the wrong reasons", and when that shows up, in my experience tends to be directed by mafia at town.
Spoiler: show
When Sparkles turned against Alison, I think it would be fair to say that she did so only on the heels of other players (by explicitly assigning them credit). Here's an example with Marmot, and the quote above is another with Sabiplz. If Alison is mafia, these engagements by Sparkles with her have already been drained of much of their distancing power -- because that credit is being handed to other people. Indeed, Sparkles is giving the responsibility to other people. That was especially apparent in her dialogue with Sabiplz.
These would be town indicators for Alison.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
Points were made but then Alison eod stuff...
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
Could you summarize your eod gripes for me, or otherwise point me to anywhere you've already stated them? I'm still digging in isos.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 1
Ok, I'll take some time to towncase Jay, or at least defend why his approach to Sparkles probably comes from town.
Jay first looked at Sparkles before she was ever really a wagon. The following post came before Sparkles had any votes.
I voted directly after this post from Jay, albeit from something else that I noticed from Sparkles.
Jay then progresses with the following series of posts, including listing Sparkles as his top scumread.
Sparkles had one vote at this time (from me, an unexplained one), so Sparkles was not yet under any real pressure. Jay, as Sparkles' partner, is likely not looking to put a heavy-handed attempt at distancing with her. Jay is the last person you want to win as lone wolf in F3, because he will always die before that as town.
Eventually we see a vote from Jay. This comes after I make my initial suspicion, and OW places a vote, so this is the third vote on Sparkles. I don't recall the wagon composition at the time, but this likely helps put Sparkles in real contention as a wagon.
It's a very reasonable progression imo, and again, it's proactive enough that it probably comes from town.
Jay first looked at Sparkles before she was ever really a wagon. The following post came before Sparkles had any votes.
Spoiler: show
I voted directly after this post from Jay, albeit from something else that I noticed from Sparkles.
Jay then progresses with the following series of posts, including listing Sparkles as his top scumread.
Spoiler: show
Sparkles had one vote at this time (from me, an unexplained one), so Sparkles was not yet under any real pressure. Jay, as Sparkles' partner, is likely not looking to put a heavy-handed attempt at distancing with her. Jay is the last person you want to win as lone wolf in F3, because he will always die before that as town.
Spoiler: show
It's a very reasonable progression imo, and again, it's proactive enough that it probably comes from town.

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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
That was more of a broad comment to the players voicing suspicion of Jay, namely falcon and lucy.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:04 pm....Marmot wrote: ↑Sun Aug 28, 2022 12:50 pmAgreedNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Aug 28, 2022 12:47 pm Alison and Lucy can both easily fit in the poe. It's fine. This is a pointless argument.
I'm not quite ready to add Jay to the POE
Why would you?

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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
When I look at Alison/Sparkles from Alison's side, I don't see anything that stands out as significant to change my view. Alison is competent as a mafioso distancing from teammates, and I don't fault folks for exploring that avenue -- but I don't see anything that says that's the theory I should favor at this point. She essentially reduced Day 1 to two candidates, lucy and Sparkles (an arrangement I found pretty agreeable), jockeyed her vote between them, and one of them was chopped and flipped mafia.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
My POE is trending towards just lucy.

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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
Dumbest read in the thread: Sparkles calling Marmot "Marmy" was a pocket
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:22 pm Dumbest read in the thread: Sparkles calling Marmot "Marmy" was a pocket
She's called me Marmy for ages, from discord games, PerC games, Town of Salem, etc
But you can consider her treatment of my otherwise as OMGUS followed by pocketing.

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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 1
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These were Sparkles' only instances of acknowledging that DrWilgy exists. Not much there.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
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Wilgy's progression on Sparkles is similar to Alison's, though perhaps with a messier finish. He didn't say much about Sparkles until the latter half of Day 1, but when he did it was distinctly negative (see the first two posts in there and the lone orange read. He ended up with lucy and Alison as the candidates as well, briefly, before adding outed wolf into the equation. He ended up voting outed wolf, and left with a soft defense of Sparkles in green. That doesn't have to be the end of the world, but it is something that Wilgy should talk about.
@DrWilgy, why was outed wolf the choice for you in the end, rather than lucy or Sparkles or otherwise?
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
So Jay is town.
Which means the mafia is just lucy and maybe Nanook.
But it's really just lucy.
Which means the mafia is just lucy and maybe Nanook.
But it's really just lucy.
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
Ehhh he kinda has to clear me if he's mafia doesn't he.
But he also kinda can't. The POE is way too tight for him to be coming in townreading fringe members of the POE like me.
He does choose to throw more sus on Wilgy than most people... but if his idea was just to open the POE, why pick Wilgy to go after instead of me?
But he also kinda can't. The POE is way too tight for him to be coming in townreading fringe members of the POE like me.
He does choose to throw more sus on Wilgy than most people... but if his idea was just to open the POE, why pick Wilgy to go after instead of me?
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
Why did you choose Wilgy to examine Jay?
There's nothing that says a fake can't surpass the real thing.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
Alphabetical order. I'm looking at Esooa currently.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
I think Wilgy looks town at face value and have much of the game. It's necessary though to interpret interactions with mafia responsibly, regardless of preconception. I'll see what Wilgy has to say.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
i wish to renounce alison from the church, plus sabi if you turbo alison u throw
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
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That's it from Sparkles on Esooa.
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From Esooa's side, we're given a bunch of opportunities to make judgment calls. If Esooa is Sparkles' teammate, I don't think we can call this material "distancing", and maybe not even "bussing" unless that word means "place a vote for your teammate" and nothing more. Esooa's treatment of Sparkles kind of falls on the third corner of the triangle that has formed in my head of players with similar world views and very different products reflecting their world views: Alison, Wilgy, and Esooa. All three said in some form that they were cool with the lucy/Sparkles POE, and Esooa was the one to place the actual Sparkles vote. That vote came with little verbal weight, however, given that it was a shrugging sheep and followed by commentary that could move late wagons elsewhere.
So that's the judgment call. Is this Esooa genuinely shrugging her way uneasily into the correct Sparkles chop, or is it some combination of feeble distancing and effort to move other votes? With a gun to my head I favor the former. Esooa, even in this lower activity body, is not a player I would describe as "feeble". If she is going to distance or bus, she probably just does it? All the way? It's not a crime to be unsure about a Day 1 chop. I welcome discussion on this one, because it's not my most confident read.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
Oh, good point. Didn't realize. I keep thinking Wilgy starts with W, not D.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
What exactly about Esooa's thought process is off?
This is the second time I am asking you this question. Esooa is your top suspect and you are allegedly very worried that town will throw the game. If you care enough to beg me not to vote you, or beg Sabi not to vote me, you should care enough to at least give a brief summary of why your top suspect is your top suspect.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
girlbossAlison wrote: ↑Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:09 pmWhat exactly about Esooa's thought process is off?
This is the second time I am asking you this question. Esooa is your top suspect and you are allegedly very worried that town will throw the game. If you care enough to beg me not to vote you, or beg Sabi not to vote me, you should care enough to at least give a brief summary of why your top suspect is your top suspect.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
u have to find the reasons yourself bucko
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
I think Esooa has been townie both yesterday and today, just in a vacuum. She is reading me in a very specific way (trying to see how far I stretch my logic) and I find this to be a reasonable way of reading me that matches with her previous approach to me as town. Her approach to lucy matches mine as well. As you suggest, she has expressed doubt on Sparkles, but so did Outed Wolf himself, and she has not expressed that doubt in ways that are likely to convince people to move off Sparkles.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Aug 28, 2022 2:01 pmSpoiler: show
That's it from Sparkles on Esooa.
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From Esooa's side, we're given a bunch of opportunities to make judgment calls. If Esooa is Sparkles' teammate, I don't think we can call this material "distancing", and maybe not even "bussing" unless that word means "place a vote for your teammate" and nothing more. Esooa's treatment of Sparkles kind of falls on the third corner of the triangle that has formed in my head of players with similar world views and very different products reflecting their world views: Alison, Wilgy, and Esooa. All three said in some form that they were cool with the lucy/Sparkles POE, and Esooa was the one to place the actual Sparkles vote. That vote came with little verbal weight, however, given that it was a shrugging sheep and followed by commentary that could move late wagons elsewhere.
So that's the judgment call. Is this Esooa genuinely shrugging her way uneasily into the correct Sparkles chop, or is it some combination of feeble distancing and effort to move other votes? With a gun to my head I favor the former. Esooa, even in this lower activity body, is not a player I would describe as "feeble". If she is going to distance or bus, she probably just does it? All the way? It's not a crime to be unsure about a Day 1 chop. I welcome discussion on this one, because it's not my most confident read.
Today, she has stuck to her guns on lucy even when handed ripe opportunities to turn on me, despite openly voicing hesitation on her previous Alison townread. She shares my belief that the game can be solved by simple POE. I have no issues with her approach at all and in many respects she has played the game as I would as a townie in her shoes.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
Oh, and I think if Esooa is mafia she tries harder to get a lucy wagon with my support rather than wandering off to hop on Sparkles.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
She didn't hop on sparkles. She was on Nook vanity wagon
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, does this look like a town who sees the impending loss on the horizon and is desperate to do anything she can to stop it?
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
She was on Sparkles' wagon EOD, when did she move? I am on mobile and can't ISO easily.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
ur conf biasing again and putting words into my mouth
- Sabiplz
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
Nevermind she moved her vote from. Nook to sparkles
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
I'm going back to napping on the train gngngn
- Esooa
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
Moved right before day end
Otherwise was on nanook for like 12 hours I think and before that Lucy
Spoiler: show
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
Esooa vote didn't matter irt sparkles.
I'm trying to read her without taking the vote in consideration.
I'm trying to read her without taking the vote in consideration.
- DrWilgy
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
Green: I did find it strange that Sparkles would go to Alison rather than try to build on the Lucy wagon, which gave me doubt. The question was simply, does a W go for the improbable wagon vs the easy one that's been semi present all day. I didn't know so I asked in a way that could help me clear it up while at the same time assessing others thoughts on Sparkles.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Aug 28, 2022 1:35 pmSpoiler: show
Wilgy's progression on Sparkles is similar to Alison's, though perhaps with a messier finish. He didn't say much about Sparkles until the latter half of Day 1, but when he did it was distinctly negative (see the first two posts in there and the lone orange read. He ended up with lucy and Alison as the candidates as well, briefly, before adding outed wolf into the equation. He ended up voting outed wolf, and left with a soft defense of Sparkles in green. That doesn't have to be the end of the world, but it is something that Wilgy should talk about.
@DrWilgy, why was outed wolf the choice for you in the end, rather than lucy or Sparkles or otherwise?
OW was more of a knee jerk that stayed because of the EoD timing. Sparkles and OW were equally yeetable, but OW said I was reading tea leaves or something silly while I was trying to pick apart their highly detailed 6 posts at the time.
- DrWilgy
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
Had surgery the other day, so I ain't solving this cycle.
Will respond to notifications if you need something though.
[VOTE: Lucy] aubergine is safe enough. Don't let me misyeet her if we are wrong town glgl.
Will respond to notifications if you need something though.
[VOTE: Lucy] aubergine is safe enough. Don't let me misyeet her if we are wrong town glgl.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
Spoiler: show
This sequence recalls my review of Alison, and it applies similarly to falcon. This looked like high-roading TMI from Sparkles, and falcon's response suggests he felt the same way.
Spoiler: show
This feels the same to me. The second post there is a long-winded explanation for a shallow town read on falcon that looks more like an effort to justify already acquired knowledge (i.e., "falcon is town") than an effort to be deceptive about falcon's alignment. It's basic, low-level meta stuff like "vote switch a lot without much explanation" that lends itself to being easily replicated in any alignment.
Spoiler: show
The remainder of falcon's progression on Sparkles is the sort of turbulent voting movement that Sparks herself referenced before. It's "fine". This doesn't do a ton to move the needle either way for me. Overall I don't think falcon is a likely teammate of Sparkles.
Spoiler: show
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
Spoiler: show
Sparkles' handling of lucy was mostly nothing until the multi-color highlights. In that post, Sparks' account of lucy covers a lot of ground in a short span, which I represent with the colors (negative assessments of lucy are orange, null is yellow, and positive assessments are green). That's a lot of caveats and buts and althoughs, and it's not a great look.
The following post in which Sparks gripes with Alison could also represent a classic chainsaw defense (i.e., defend teammate by attacking their attacker).
Be aware that the pink highlight is Sparks' own, not mine.
Spoiler: show
There's not much else to talk about on lucy's side. I only found this extension of a dialogue I included previously, so do something with this if you are so inclined, reader. It doesn't mean much to me.
Separately: @lucy, why was outed wolf the vote for you? You suggested it was "wagonomics" in the moment; please expand.
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- JaggedJimmyJay
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
Spoiler: show
Marmot himself described this progression as one of omgus followed by pocketing. Per my color coding, you can see that I think that's a valid take. I think the timeline is important here. When Sparks was going after Marmot a little bit, that first orange post came soon after Alison had voted for Marmot and those two had exchanged words over it. In this way, she is indirectly signal-boosting Alison's suspicion of Marmot. Then, later, after Alison has gone after Sparks, that flips on its head. In the second green post, Sparks is signal boosting Marmot's suspicion of Alison. That may imply that Alison and Marmot are aligned, because I suspect that at each respective stage of this progression, Sparks was happy to kill either one of them.
Spoiler: show
Things from Marmot's side seem similarly solid. Marmot's assertions that Sparks was engaging in legal appeal to emotion, and Sparks' half-resistance to that description, don't strike me as aligned. Then in the end, Marmot opened dialogue with Wilgy about the latter's semi-town case for Sparks, and still decided firmly against the outed wolf counterwagon to remain on Sparks. Good rodent.
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
Fine I will vote for lucy
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
Most boring d2
- JaggedJimmyJay
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Re: Kid's Birthday Party Mafia Day 2
Spoiler: show