King of the Hill Mafia

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Creature
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2101

Post by Creature »

staypositivefriend wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:06 pm i also dont think that creature is much of a powerwolf from my experience - i remember that he hard bussed me when i was wolfing with him in a way that was pretty out of left field, and he made a point to create a lot of distance from his partners. he's treating alison pretty much the opposite in this game
Oh wait were you MoonBabe? Or was it a turbo where I bussed you at like D2 and some accidentally overpowered SK-arsonist ended winning?
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2102

Post by MacDougall »

Alison wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:21 pm The more Creature baselessly calls votes shrug yeets and implies that they are essentially =rand when people have dropped entire cases on them and called them outed etc. the more I think he is partners with Porscha and was caught with his pants down.
You do realise that in the world where you are town, your flip outs Creature and Porscha right? Like to 95%+ likelihood.

If you are playing the way you are today because you don't want to be chopped you need to realise that if you take yourself out of your seat, that you surviving today is strictly bad for the gamestate regardless of your alignment.

The town benefits from your chop either way. You've seen this play out so many times in my position. And you would be as beside yourself as I am if you were in my seat.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2103

Post by ☆Princess Abigail☆ »

lucy wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:07 pm can you people post reads lists
I want a towncore
My reads are as follows

People I think probably drink tea

Neon
Mac
Porscha

People who might like tea

Lily
Lucy

People who are probably not very invested in the tea reads

Aro
SPF
Boq

People who might not like tea

Sparkles

People who probably hate tea

Nanook
Creature
Alison


Anyone I forgot is not memorable sorry
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2104

Post by Lilypetal »

Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:05 pm
Alison wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:01 pm It probably is actually just Porscha Creature X where X is Rondo or Lily.
Porscha + Lilypetal + me prob always nightkills within you/Mac/SPF. We don't make fancy pants plays.
yeah exactly these wolf teams i've seen floating around dont make sense w nk lol
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2105

Post by Creature »

Alright assume Sabiplz accidentally spoiled in MU discord that Alison, Mac and I are all town. Who should we look at next?
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2106

Post by Lilypetal »

Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:11 pm Alright assume Sabiplz accidentally spoiled in MU discord that Alison, Mac and I are all town. Who should we look at next?
aro

no one is talking abt aro lol

its like he isnt in this game
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2107

Post by staypositivefriend »

Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:09 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:06 pm i also dont think that creature is much of a powerwolf from my experience - i remember that he hard bussed me when i was wolfing with him in a way that was pretty out of left field, and he made a point to create a lot of distance from his partners. he's treating alison pretty much the opposite in this game
Oh wait were you MoonBabe? Or was it a turbo where I bussed you at like D2 and some accidentally overpowered SK-arsonist ended winning?
i'm not moonbabe, no. it was either a mash or a really big turbo game where you bussed me at a stage where i could have easily been saved and then got a ton of towncred for doing it. i dont really remember the specifics though
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2108

Post by Alison »

MacDougall wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:11 pm
Alison wrote: Tue Sep 20, 2022 4:21 pm The more Creature baselessly calls votes shrug yeets and implies that they are essentially =rand when people have dropped entire cases on them and called them outed etc. the more I think he is partners with Porscha and was caught with his pants down.
You do realise that in the world where you are town, your flip outs Creature and Porscha right? Like to 95%+ likelihood.

If you are playing the way you are today because you don't want to be chopped you need to realise that if you take yourself out of your seat, that you surviving today is strictly bad for the gamestate regardless of your alignment.

The town benefits from your chop either way. You've seen this play out so many times in my position. And you would be as beside yourself as I am if you were in my seat.
That is quite literally my solve and I have been saying "policy me but work with me for the next two days to get a solid towncore and POE before you do". You are the one who is running around getting yourself worked up and using OGI and crap. Just chill for a bit, take a break if you have to. Creature/Porscha still has a third to be found and I think you are town now for how unnecessary that OGI was so I am not even pushing you any more.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2109

Post by staypositivefriend »

mac, fwiw, i promise that i will do my due diligence on examining your alison read in detail today. i wasn't trying to imply that your read on her was invalidated by your angleshooty read, more that your angleshooty read made me concerned that you weren't evaluating things from an objective/fair POV and that it could be coloring the rest of your analysis

if nothing else the last page or so just made me more confident that youre town
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2110

Post by Creature »

idk why I'm being associated with Porscha. I've stated multiple times near the end of the day that I preferred voting Porscha over falcon. I moved to falcon when Porscha was no longer viable and I wanted to both save Alison and prevent a tie.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2111

Post by Creature »

wtf Alison I feel like you're doing mental gymnastics now.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2112

Post by robyn »

spf and creature, game theory wise do we Lynch the cw?
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2113

Post by Lilypetal »

staypositivefriend wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:14 pm mac, fwiw, i promise that i will do my due diligence on examining your alison read in detail today. i wasn't trying to imply that your read on her was invalidated by your angleshooty read, more that your angleshooty read made me concerned that you weren't evaluating things from an objective/fair POV and that it could be coloring the rest of your analysis

if nothing else the last page or so just made me more confident that youre town
very true when mac gets all tunnely it really makes me think of town mac

spiritfarer moment
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2114

Post by MacDougall »

I'm not going to engage so don't bother asking me anything;

If today's chop is Alison; and Alison flips town then Porscha and Creature are almost always mafia. Flip them with no remorse.

If Alison flips mafia; turbo punt Creature into the sun. Keep wary of Porscha because Alison is a known busser but Porscha's alignment becomes tricky.

If today's chop is Porscha; and Porscha flips town then Creature and Alison are almost always mafia. Flip them with no remorse.

If Porscha flips mafia, then turbo punt Creature into the sun. Keep wary of Alison because Alison is a known busser but her alignment becomes tricky.

If today's chop is Creature (which it probably should be, but won't be), and he flips town, I struggle to even understand what that would mean. Kill me and get me out of the game. If he flips mafia, kill Alison AND Porscha and you will guarantee find at least one more wolf (and if we're really lucky 2).

The game won't end from this, but frankly anything else happening but some combination of the above, means town probably lose this game.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2115

Post by Creature »

[VOTE: Porscha] aubergine

Alright if you all think Porscha is wolf.

Saying I am most likely her partner feels like pretty random though.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2116

Post by Alison »

Lilypetal wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:13 pm
Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:11 pm Alright assume Sabiplz accidentally spoiled in MU discord that Alison, Mac and I are all town. Who should we look at next?
aro

no one is talking abt aro lol

its like he isnt in this game
I asked you for your case on aro and you didn't reply to it. Now is your chance to pitch aro mafia to us.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2117

Post by Lilypetal »

Alison wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:17 pm
Lilypetal wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:13 pm
Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:11 pm Alright assume Sabiplz accidentally spoiled in MU discord that Alison, Mac and I are all town. Who should we look at next?
aro

no one is talking abt aro lol

its like he isnt in this game
I asked you for your case on aro and you didn't reply to it. Now is your chance to pitch aro mafia to us.
oh i probably just missed it

i will in a bit
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2118

Post by Alison »

Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:15 pm wtf Alison I feel like you're doing mental gymnastics now.
Ok so who is mafia with Porscha?
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2119

Post by MacDougall »

Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:15 pm wtf Alison I feel like you're doing mental gymnastics now.
i told you she already had this perspective, she isn't doing gymnastics, she has had you paired to porscha on multiple occasions dating right back to day 1 and i've pulled the quotes multiple times

if you are town you probably need to recognise i'm not just making shit up like you seem to think
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2120

Post by Creature »

lucy wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:17 pm spf and creature, game theory wise do we Lynch the cw?
We shouldn't restrict our lynch options today. It's not set in stone Alison is wolf and I feel like wolves are skating under the radar while we eat each other.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2121

Post by Alison »

Lilypetal wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:17 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:14 pm mac, fwiw, i promise that i will do my due diligence on examining your alison read in detail today. i wasn't trying to imply that your read on her was invalidated by your angleshooty read, more that your angleshooty read made me concerned that you weren't evaluating things from an objective/fair POV and that it could be coloring the rest of your analysis

if nothing else the last page or so just made me more confident that youre town
very true when mac gets all tunnely it really makes me think of town mac

spiritfarer moment
Nah he can be tunnelly as mafia but I don't think I have ever seen him brazenly angleshoot as mafia and I have a couple of times as town.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2122

Post by Alison »

Alison wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:19 pm
Lilypetal wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:17 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:14 pm mac, fwiw, i promise that i will do my due diligence on examining your alison read in detail today. i wasn't trying to imply that your read on her was invalidated by your angleshooty read, more that your angleshooty read made me concerned that you weren't evaluating things from an objective/fair POV and that it could be coloring the rest of your analysis

if nothing else the last page or so just made me more confident that youre town
very true when mac gets all tunnely it really makes me think of town mac

spiritfarer moment
Nah he can be tunnelly as mafia but I don't think I have ever seen him brazenly angleshoot as mafia and I have a couple of times as town.
It doesn't gain him anything if he is mafia either, he could have just kept pushing me with the same reasons.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2123

Post by staypositivefriend »

lucy wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:17 pm spf and creature, game theory wise do we Lynch the cw?
the only game theory that i believe in is killing mafia. so, if we conclude that alison is mafia, then we should kill her. if we conclude that alison is town, we should not kill her

if you're asking if the state of the wagons on d1 implies anything about her alignment, i don't really think that it does
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2124

Post by MacDougall »

Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:19 pm
lucy wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:17 pm spf and creature, game theory wise do we Lynch the cw?
We shouldn't restrict our lynch options today. It's not set in stone Alison is wolf and I feel like wolves are skating under the radar while we eat each other.
Maybe you just don't actually realise how bad this is but not killing the counterwagon on day 2 is the number 1 thing that leads to town losing mountainous games. Nothing else comes close.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2125

Post by ☆Princess Abigail☆ »

Alison wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:17 pm
Lilypetal wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:13 pm
Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:11 pm Alright assume Sabiplz accidentally spoiled in MU discord that Alison, Mac and I are all town. Who should we look at next?
aro

no one is talking abt aro lol

its like he isnt in this game
I asked you for your case on aro and you didn't reply to it. Now is your chance to pitch aro mafia to us.
Hey me too
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You are Zenon, Town 1-shot Desperado. You’re known for posting a lot (namely in anime gif form), playing a lot, and, most importantly, making snap decisions – particularly in the endgame. In a recent game, Wild West FM, you were taken to final 3 and immediately voted the last wolf, resulting in a LyLo that was strictly speaking over in four minutes and two posts. This game, we’re giving you the chance to accomplish a similar feat.

High-Risk High-Reward (Day 2+, 1-shot, Immediate): Spend 6 Snapvote Charges, post Fuck it we ball glgl in bold red text, and ping a player. (When you use this ability, you should also inform the hosts privately.) If they are Town, you will strongman die. Otherwise, you will strongman kill that player. This action resolves instantly.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2126

Post by Creature »

MacDougall wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:17 pm I'm not going to engage so don't bother asking me anything;

If today's chop is Alison; and Alison flips town then Porscha and Creature are almost always mafia. Flip them with no remorse.

If Alison flips mafia; turbo punt Creature into the sun. Keep wary of Porscha because Alison is a known busser but Porscha's alignment becomes tricky.

If today's chop is Porscha; and Porscha flips town then Creature and Alison are almost always mafia. Flip them with no remorse.

If Porscha flips mafia, then turbo punt Creature into the sun. Keep wary of Alison because Alison is a known busser but her alignment becomes tricky.

If today's chop is Creature (which it probably should be, but won't be), and he flips town, I struggle to even understand what that would mean. Kill me and get me out of the game. If he flips mafia, kill Alison AND Porscha and you will guarantee find at least one more wolf (and if we're really lucky 2).

The game won't end from this, but frankly anything else happening but some combination of the above, means town probably lose this game.
lol I must be Schrodinger's wolf

No matter what I do, who gets lynched and how they flip I am always wolf
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2127

Post by Lilypetal »

MacDougall wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:20 pm
Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:19 pm
lucy wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:17 pm spf and creature, game theory wise do we Lynch the cw?
We shouldn't restrict our lynch options today. It's not set in stone Alison is wolf and I feel like wolves are skating under the radar while we eat each other.
Maybe you just don't actually realise how bad this is but not killing the counterwagon on day 2 is the number 1 thing that leads to town losing mountainous games. Nothing else comes close.
can you explain why? as someone still fairly new I don't know the theory on this stuff
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2128

Post by MacDougall »

staypositivefriend wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:20 pm
lucy wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:17 pm spf and creature, game theory wise do we Lynch the cw?
the only game theory that i believe in is killing mafia. so, if we conclude that alison is mafia, then we should kill her. if we conclude that alison is town, we should not kill her

if you're asking if the state of the wagons on d1 implies anything about her alignment, i don't really think that it does
AND HOW ARE WE MEANT TO CONCLUDE THAT?

How does the state of the wagons on d1 not imply anything? Split wagons on day 1 are w/t well above rand.

And that doesn't even factor in how bad it is to mischop Alison later than day 2. Every day that Alison survives is a good thing for the mafia, even if she's town!
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2129

Post by Creature »

Alison wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:18 pm
Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:15 pm wtf Alison I feel like you're doing mental gymnastics now.
Ok so who is mafia with Porscha?
I'm trying to figure out who else can be mafia (not necessarily aligned with Porscha). If Porscha flips wolf I'd prob look at who pushed falcon over Porscha before the wagons were trimmed down to you v falcon.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2130

Post by Creature »

MacDougall wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:20 pm
Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:19 pm
lucy wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:17 pm spf and creature, game theory wise do we Lynch the cw?
We shouldn't restrict our lynch options today. It's not set in stone Alison is wolf and I feel like wolves are skating under the radar while we eat each other.
Maybe you just don't actually realise how bad this is but not killing the counterwagon on day 2 is the number 1 thing that leads to town losing mountainous games. Nothing else comes close.
Perhaps. I just hate giving wolves a free day pass because we have to resolve wagons when TvT wagons are quite common.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2131

Post by staypositivefriend »

i think there is some validity to the idea that resolving counterwagons in the early game is generally a smart move. it prevents wolves who were caught early on from sliding under the radar and going deeper, and it provides extremely important information that is valuable for solving the rest of the game. for example, if we had chopped hells on d2 of the spec chat invitational game, things would have played out very differently and town likely would have won several dayphases earlier

that said, my number one guiding principle across all mafia games is: that you should aim to kill the people you think are mafia, and you should not aim to kill the people who you don't think are mafia. there are almost zero valid exceptions to this rule. game theory does not trump scumhunting or individual reads
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2132

Post by Sabiplz »

MOD NOTE:

Everyone please go drink water/pet your cat/take a breather.

No need to be tense. It's just a computer game.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2133

Post by Lilypetal »

meh im probs gonna retract my vote on aro im probs just omgusing

my first thought abt aro was "what is aro x spf scum world" but spf reads so towny to me so aro is probs also just town

just feel like aro as a player is very understanding and thoughtful and he's constantly reading me incorrectly and I don't know why
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2134

Post by staypositivefriend »

MacDougall wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:22 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:20 pm
lucy wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:17 pm spf and creature, game theory wise do we Lynch the cw?
the only game theory that i believe in is killing mafia. so, if we conclude that alison is mafia, then we should kill her. if we conclude that alison is town, we should not kill her

if you're asking if the state of the wagons on d1 implies anything about her alignment, i don't really think that it does
AND HOW ARE WE MEANT TO CONCLUDE THAT?

How does the state of the wagons on d1 not imply anything? Split wagons on day 1 are w/t well above rand.

And that doesn't even factor in how bad it is to mischop Alison later than day 2. Every day that Alison survives is a good thing for the mafia, even if she's town!
i would guarantee that if we did a statistical analysis of every mafia game played within the last 5 years, that split wagons on d1 would not have a >rand chance of containing a wolf. this does not seem to be true and i disagree that it implies anything about the gamestate in either direction
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2135

Post by Creature »

We should prob focus on building a good towncore and narrow down the POE a little. I feel like we're too over the place.

My firm townreads last night were arogame123, Lilypetal, lucy and Neon.

I'm asking you all what do you make out of Lilypetal's and Neon's wagon movements yesterday which pretty much risked a nolynch. I thought Lilypetal switching to a vanity wagon was TWTBW and also I feel like she panicked when falcon45ca posted like a dying town EOD. Neon is roughly the same but I think she comes off as more robotic to me.

arogame123 really had some pretty solvy posts at some points. I only wonder if he is deeping here.

lucy I townread mostly for repeatedly posting the VC at yesterday's EOD. It just felt like something lucy wouldn't bother doing as wolf.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2136

Post by MacDougall »

Lilypetal wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:21 pm
MacDougall wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:20 pm
Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:19 pm
lucy wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:17 pm spf and creature, game theory wise do we Lynch the cw?
We shouldn't restrict our lynch options today. It's not set in stone Alison is wolf and I feel like wolves are skating under the radar while we eat each other.
Maybe you just don't actually realise how bad this is but not killing the counterwagon on day 2 is the number 1 thing that leads to town losing mountainous games. Nothing else comes close.
can you explain why? as someone still fairly new I don't know the theory on this stuff
Okay let me try to explain.

There are two worlds right, town or mafia Alison. Let's start with the easier option.

Alison is mafia. - If this is the case, you can rest assured that Alison went to great lengths on day 1 to antispew because she was run up and a threat to go over. It is quite likely that at least 1 if not both wolves were voting Alison on day 1 because of this. Because as games play out, if Alison were to flip, it would be those that hard shielded Alison day 1 that would die first and then it would be those who hard pushed others. Alison was such a risk of flipping day 1, that it is nearly certain (if she is mafia), that counterwagons weren't created by her teammates and her teammates would have been more inclined to be opposed to HER own pushed counterwagon than obsequent to it. And that's made even more likely by the fact that Alison understands the logic of how to play this game and would have forced them to do it.

So, if we don't chop Mafia Alison day 2, we're chopping most likely someone who she PUSHED hard right? Well that'd make Porscha the chop, and it's usually a reasonable option because it leads to Alison getting turboed day 3 right? Well, not really because Alison is a forceful town player, I just die n2 (or if they really think I'm actually helping by pushing too hard and alienating the town, maybe not), but it might. Let's say that it does. Well we've just lost a day discovering Alison is mafia, and we're one day closer to limlo and are still about to go through the process of killing Alison's most obvious teammates, ie. the people that voted against her wagon day 1.

If Alison is mafia, the Porscha flip might actually BE a wolf (totally can be) and well, we're just fucked if Porscha goes over before Alison cuz it'll just make me look awful and it'll make Alison towncore to most.

Long story short, all of this is avoided by just killing her.

But the more interesting is;

Alison is town - If this is the case and we do not resolve her today, w have to end up resolving the person she was pushing against (like if we don't chop one of Porscha/Alison today we're just throwing tbh). In a perfect world this would make that person >rand to be mafia. And it probably does here. But if Alison is actually wrong. Now we have Alison, looking outed, and 3 mafia alive who can just use her as a play thing. They probably shield her on day 3 even and get Alison to help them chop a town who is desperate to get her over. Some dumb shit. Drag her as deep in the game as possible and just hide behind her. It's a tale as old as time.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2137

Post by Creature »

I'll prob ignore Alison/Mac rn. I can kinda relate to Alison saying Mac wouldn't use an OGI read on her as wolf. Still not feeling Alison is a wolf here, although her solve of Porscha + me + Lily/Rondo doesn't make a single sense.

Therefore we should prob look for wolves here:

Boquise
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Porscha
RondoDimBuckle
Seanzie
staypositivefriend
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2138

Post by ☆Princess Abigail☆ »

Sabiplz wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:30 pm
MOD NOTE:

Everyone please go drink water/pet your cat/take a breather.

No need to be tense. It's just a computer game.
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Bubbly Magical Girl who loves Caitlin more than anything in the world!

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You are Zenon, Town 1-shot Desperado. You’re known for posting a lot (namely in anime gif form), playing a lot, and, most importantly, making snap decisions – particularly in the endgame. In a recent game, Wild West FM, you were taken to final 3 and immediately voted the last wolf, resulting in a LyLo that was strictly speaking over in four minutes and two posts. This game, we’re giving you the chance to accomplish a similar feat.

High-Risk High-Reward (Day 2+, 1-shot, Immediate): Spend 6 Snapvote Charges, post Fuck it we ball glgl in bold red text, and ping a player. (When you use this ability, you should also inform the hosts privately.) If they are Town, you will strongman die. Otherwise, you will strongman kill that player. This action resolves instantly.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2139

Post by MacDougall »

Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:22 pm
Alison wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:18 pm
Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:15 pm wtf Alison I feel like you're doing mental gymnastics now.
Ok so who is mafia with Porscha?
I'm trying to figure out who else can be mafia (not necessarily aligned with Porscha). If Porscha flips wolf I'd prob look at who pushed falcon over Porscha before the wagons were trimmed down to you v falcon.
Creature you can say my name.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2140

Post by MacDougall »

staypositivefriend wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:31 pm
MacDougall wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:22 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:20 pm
lucy wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:17 pm spf and creature, game theory wise do we Lynch the cw?
the only game theory that i believe in is killing mafia. so, if we conclude that alison is mafia, then we should kill her. if we conclude that alison is town, we should not kill her

if you're asking if the state of the wagons on d1 implies anything about her alignment, i don't really think that it does
AND HOW ARE WE MEANT TO CONCLUDE THAT?

How does the state of the wagons on d1 not imply anything? Split wagons on day 1 are w/t well above rand.

And that doesn't even factor in how bad it is to mischop Alison later than day 2. Every day that Alison survives is a good thing for the mafia, even if she's town!
i would guarantee that if we did a statistical analysis of every mafia game played within the last 5 years, that split wagons on d1 would not have a >rand chance of containing a wolf. this does not seem to be true and i disagree that it implies anything about the gamestate in either direction
Do you know what >rand means?
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2141

Post by Creature »

MacDougall wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:35 pm
Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:22 pm
Alison wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:18 pm
Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:15 pm wtf Alison I feel like you're doing mental gymnastics now.
Ok so who is mafia with Porscha?
I'm trying to figure out who else can be mafia (not necessarily aligned with Porscha). If Porscha flips wolf I'd prob look at who pushed falcon over Porscha before the wagons were trimmed down to you v falcon.
Creature you can say my name.
idk you were the one who actually started the falcon wagon, but a lot of other players jumped on falcon over Porscha.

I guess staypositivefriend was one of them. There was also lucy, Lilypetal and Neon but I have reasons to townread them. Dunno who else.

Weirdly Porscha was voting Alison all of yesterday's EOD.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2142

Post by Creature »

I wonder if I'm being bamboozled by a combination of Lilypetal/lucy/Neon.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2143

Post by MacDougall »

SPF, split wagons on day 1 where a town goes over doesn't just mean the other person is >rand wolf. It's actually more like a coinflip at that point not just rand.

When you then take into consideration the benefits to the mafia faction of not killing a town in a day 1 split on day 2.

When you add the fact that, the person is wolfy anyway.

You're strictly wrong not to just resolve it.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2144

Post by Creature »

Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:32 pm We should prob focus on building a good towncore and narrow down the POE a little. I feel like we're too over the place.

My firm townreads last night were arogame123, Lilypetal, lucy and Neon.

I'm asking you all what do you make out of Lilypetal's and Neon's wagon movements yesterday which pretty much risked a nolynch. I thought Lilypetal switching to a vanity wagon was TWTBW and also I feel like she panicked when falcon45ca posted like a dying town EOD. Neon is roughly the same but I think she comes off as more robotic to me.

arogame123 really had some pretty solvy posts at some points. I only wonder if he is deeping here.

lucy I townread mostly for repeatedly posting the VC at yesterday's EOD. It just felt like something lucy wouldn't bother doing as wolf.
Thoughts on this?

Also I feel like no one else has said anything about Lily's and Neon's movements yesterday.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2145

Post by MacDougall »

Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:39 pm
Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:32 pm We should prob focus on building a good towncore and narrow down the POE a little. I feel like we're too over the place.

My firm townreads last night were arogame123, Lilypetal, lucy and Neon.

I'm asking you all what do you make out of Lilypetal's and Neon's wagon movements yesterday which pretty much risked a nolynch. I thought Lilypetal switching to a vanity wagon was TWTBW and also I feel like she panicked when falcon45ca posted like a dying town EOD. Neon is roughly the same but I think she comes off as more robotic to me.

arogame123 really had some pretty solvy posts at some points. I only wonder if he is deeping here.

lucy I townread mostly for repeatedly posting the VC at yesterday's EOD. It just felt like something lucy wouldn't bother doing as wolf.
Thoughts on this?

Also I feel like no one else has said anything about Lily's and Neon's movements yesterday.
Neon was townlocking me and shielding me but didn't end up voting with me and voted on Alison instead which I found strange.

Lilypetal just seemed to be glued to me.

@Neon do explain why you voted Alison over Falcon please?
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2146

Post by Creature »

Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:34 pm I'll prob ignore Alison/Mac rn. I can kinda relate to Alison saying Mac wouldn't use an OGI read on her as wolf. Still not feeling Alison is a wolf here, although her solve of Porscha + me + Lily/Rondo doesn't make a single sense.

Therefore we should prob look for wolves here:

Boquise
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Porscha
RondoDimBuckle
Seanzie
staypositivefriend
Porscha prob my fav lynch unless someone has a good reason as to why she is town.

Seanzie keeps getting on my nerves.

Dunno what to think about NANOOK. His switch to falcon to prevent a tie seemed kinda towny tbh.

Boquise I feel like I just keep getting paranoid of him.

staypositivefriend I'm giving a chance for a redemption arc.

Rondo is meh. Feels like he has been just trolling all game. Though I feel like his secret vote on Alison yesterday is either towny (if Alison is wolf) or wolfy (if Alison is town).
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2147

Post by Lilypetal »

MacDougall wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:42 pm
Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:39 pm
Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:32 pm We should prob focus on building a good towncore and narrow down the POE a little. I feel like we're too over the place.

My firm townreads last night were arogame123, Lilypetal, lucy and Neon.

I'm asking you all what do you make out of Lilypetal's and Neon's wagon movements yesterday which pretty much risked a nolynch. I thought Lilypetal switching to a vanity wagon was TWTBW and also I feel like she panicked when falcon45ca posted like a dying town EOD. Neon is roughly the same but I think she comes off as more robotic to me.

arogame123 really had some pretty solvy posts at some points. I only wonder if he is deeping here.

lucy I townread mostly for repeatedly posting the VC at yesterday's EOD. It just felt like something lucy wouldn't bother doing as wolf.
Thoughts on this?

Also I feel like no one else has said anything about Lily's and Neon's movements yesterday.
Neon was townlocking me and shielding me but didn't end up voting with me and voted on Alison instead which I found strange.

Lilypetal just seemed to be glued to me.

@Neon do explain why you voted Alison over Falcon please?
do u think v!me doesn't do that?
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2148

Post by MacDougall »

Lilypetal wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:45 pm
MacDougall wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:42 pm
Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:39 pm
Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:32 pm We should prob focus on building a good towncore and narrow down the POE a little. I feel like we're too over the place.

My firm townreads last night were arogame123, Lilypetal, lucy and Neon.

I'm asking you all what do you make out of Lilypetal's and Neon's wagon movements yesterday which pretty much risked a nolynch. I thought Lilypetal switching to a vanity wagon was TWTBW and also I feel like she panicked when falcon45ca posted like a dying town EOD. Neon is roughly the same but I think she comes off as more robotic to me.

arogame123 really had some pretty solvy posts at some points. I only wonder if he is deeping here.

lucy I townread mostly for repeatedly posting the VC at yesterday's EOD. It just felt like something lucy wouldn't bother doing as wolf.
Thoughts on this?

Also I feel like no one else has said anything about Lily's and Neon's movements yesterday.
Neon was townlocking me and shielding me but didn't end up voting with me and voted on Alison instead which I found strange.

Lilypetal just seemed to be glued to me.

@Neon do explain why you voted Alison over Falcon please?
do u think v!me doesn't do that?
I pinged neon not you. Wasn't criticising you just saying what occurred lol.

And ... I dunno. I kinda feel like you're being way more aligned to me in this game than you ever have been before. You have had your own beat in every game we've played together prior to this one so it's a first.
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2149

Post by Lilypetal »

MacDougall wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:47 pm
Lilypetal wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:45 pm
MacDougall wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:42 pm
Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:39 pm
Creature wrote: Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:32 pm We should prob focus on building a good towncore and narrow down the POE a little. I feel like we're too over the place.

My firm townreads last night were arogame123, Lilypetal, lucy and Neon.

I'm asking you all what do you make out of Lilypetal's and Neon's wagon movements yesterday which pretty much risked a nolynch. I thought Lilypetal switching to a vanity wagon was TWTBW and also I feel like she panicked when falcon45ca posted like a dying town EOD. Neon is roughly the same but I think she comes off as more robotic to me.

arogame123 really had some pretty solvy posts at some points. I only wonder if he is deeping here.

lucy I townread mostly for repeatedly posting the VC at yesterday's EOD. It just felt like something lucy wouldn't bother doing as wolf.
Thoughts on this?

Also I feel like no one else has said anything about Lily's and Neon's movements yesterday.
Neon was townlocking me and shielding me but didn't end up voting with me and voted on Alison instead which I found strange.

Lilypetal just seemed to be glued to me.

@Neon do explain why you voted Alison over Falcon please?
do u think v!me doesn't do that?
I pinged neon not you. Wasn't criticising you just saying what occurred lol.

And ... I dunno. I kinda feel like you're being way more aligned to me in this game than you ever have been before. You have had your own beat in every game we've played together prior to this one so it's a first.
i was sheeping u p hard in spiritfarer
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Re: King of the Hill Mafia

#2150

Post by staypositivefriend »

[VOTE: neon] aubergine

:(
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