The Legend of Zelda (Ganon's Conquest) [ENDGAME]

[Elohcin]

There is the possibility that Bass was Hyrule and he was killed by the River guy.

I doubt this because the store specifically says Hyrule, and while don't know what exact the river dude is a reference to, i really don't think it would be considered hyrule.

Trust me, Made 1 learn to make this distinction the hard way...speaking of made one...

I am presuming something in my Elo suspicion. I think Liz made this point earlier. In the first lynch (made) Liz suspected a baddie vote amongst them...

Made
6
Boogs (5), zeek (8), Elohcin (11), Snow Dog (14), Bass_the_Clever (17), sabie12 (19)
32%

All pretty much confirmed civs now, except me and ELo cuz we both ain't dead guv. I know who I am which leaves her.



So assuming a baddie did vote Made....well there she is.

Astute observation, the chances of mafia voting for made is likely. I'm not sure i understand the case against Elo (aside from this point, which equally is a point against yourself, as i'm sure you're aware)

More arguments coming round lunch hopefully...

I am aware. A risk worth taking at this stage though.

I disagree that it is a risk worth taking. And as you said, "There is the possibility that Bass was Hyrule and he was killed by the River guy." This must be the case if there was a baddie among those votes.

[Marmot]

This was meant to be included in the above post.

Elo voted third in the money game, gaining 20 rupees as a result.

I'm changing my vote.

I have my own suspicions of Elo, which is why I voted her last time. She is still a good option I think.

So we are resorting to voting for people who made a random choice on something and had no clue what the results would be. B/c if we did know what the results were going to be we would all have wanted to choose 3 and fought for who would have to vote 1 and 2 so all our bases were covered for Ganon.

No I believe what he us saying is that because of this you had enough rupees to buy the bomb. My suspicion lies more with your voting.

I see. Well, maybe I did have enough, but I can't buy anything.

If you were on Ganon's side, you would not be able to buy anything.

I think this is a slip.

[Marmot]

I disagree that it is a risk worth taking. And as you said, "There is the possibility that Bass was Hyrule and he was killed by the River guy." This must be the case if there was a baddie among those votes.

We don't know how/if the River guy can kill, but we do know he cannot buy items from the shop; that is strictly a Hyrulian ability. I'd be willing to bet that Zora, being from the river, cannot blow people up. The bomb is the only item that fits that context.

[thellama73]

MM, I think your rupee analysis is clever, and I appreciate all the work you put into it, but I think it assumes too much. As Made pointed out, there is an item that allows double rupees, and there are contests where people only submit PMs. I think it is a mistake to rule people out of the possible baddie list using your method, and frankly the fact that you are so eager to do so pings me.

I think anyone and everyone is a potential baddie, and I'm not interested in giving people a free ride based on an analysis that relies on assumptions.

[Marmot]

MM, I think your rupee analysis is clever, and I appreciate all the work you put into it, but I think it assumes too much. As Made pointed out, there is an item that allows double rupees, and there are contests where people only submit PMs. I think it is a mistake to rule people out of the possible baddie list using your method, and frankly the fact that you are so eager to do so pings me.

I think anyone and everyone is a potential baddie, and I'm not interested in giving people a free ride based on an analysis that relies on assumptions.

Welcome to mafia. If you have any ideas that aren't based on assumptions (rupees aside), please share them.

Could you also please tell me what you think of Eloh's reactions today?

[Mister Rearranger]

Made, I did give my reason for gettng more active at the time of the Courage event. Isht became personal. I don't know if you're purposely or subconsciously ignoring it to fit your narrative, but I mentioned it a few times.

[Marmot]

llama, you said it was a very good point to begin with, and were eager to help.

Hey llama, you know how Bass was killed by a bomb on Night 4? Can you think of any players aside from myself and Russti who could have won enough rupees alone to purchase a bomb? I'm having trouble finding someone else.

Oh, that's a good point. It's very difficult to say, since most of the challenges are by PM and I have no way of knowing who sent in their PMs. It does make me think that we are looking for active players rather than passive ones though, which is the opposite of my usual instinct.

But you suddenly find my reasoning to be deceitful. Why the sudden change? Why offer the initial assistance if you disagree with the overall tactic? Are you dissatisfied with the conclusion I came to? There are assumptions to be made, but I think they are more accurate than vote record analysis or WIFOM.

[Mister Rearranger]

Seriously, people. We have 5 VOTES ON 4 PEOPLE already. If they stay where they are, the baddies get to lynch who they want and laugh all the way to post game. It literally is not possible for the civs to win this lynch without grouping on someone.

I don't know what more I can say. I think it should be abundantly clear from my behavior this game that I'm civ, and I've been right about every lynch this game (which has been pretty easy - I just had to guess 'civ' for anyone about to die). You guys gotta give me just one chance to help you get a baddie. I just need one day. If you can't do that, then please lynch me because I'll be too disgusted with how bad we've played to keep going anyway.

I will also say I've been working fiendishly making cases all game, and I've gotten little to no support despite getting a lot of "Hmmm, interesting"s. If you think I'm civ, you probably owe me the benefit of the doubt on just one case for the game. I feel like I'm talking at a wall this game.

I feel like we're all just walls yelling at each other this game.

[thellama73]

MM, I think your rupee analysis is clever, and I appreciate all the work you put into it, but I think it assumes too much. As Made pointed out, there is an item that allows double rupees, and there are contests where people only submit PMs. I think it is a mistake to rule people out of the possible baddie list using your method, and frankly the fact that you are so eager to do so pings me.

I think anyone and everyone is a potential baddie, and I'm not interested in giving people a free ride based on an analysis that relies on assumptions.

Welcome to mafia. If you have any ideas that aren't based on assumptions (rupees aside), please share them.

Could you also please tell me what you think of Eloh's reactions today?

It's true that assumptions are necessary to a certain extent, but I never use assumptions to say "so and so DEFINITELY isn't bad," as I believe you are doing. I find that crazy suspicious, if I'm being honest. It just pings the hell out of me.

I didn't find Eloh's comment, which you described as a slip, unusual. None of us can buy things, since only Hyrule has that option. I read "I can't buy anything" as equivalent to her saying "I am civvie." She might not be, but that comment in particular didn't bother me nearly as much as your eagerness to jump on it.

I think you are coming across as a little desperate, like you are afraid you've been caught and you're trying to call attention to other people because of it.

I am going to place my vote on you for now, but I may be persuaded to change it later.

linki: I did think it was a good point and worth thinking about. Then I thought about it and realized we couldn't draw any firm conclusions. You are determined to draw firm conclusions in spite of this, and I think you have a baddie motive for doing so.

[Marmot]

linki: I did think it was a good point and worth thinking about. Then I thought about it and realized we couldn't draw any firm conclusions. You are determined to draw firm conclusions in spite of this, and I think you have a baddie motive for doing so.

I can't win. I'm going to class, I might be back on later.

[Russtifinko]

Llama, the part he thought was suspicious was that she said "I did have enough" not that she couldn't buy anything.

Dammit, people. If you're gonna make me build case after work, you'd better be around to change your votes when I do.

[fingersplints]

I doubt I will be :/

[thellama73]

Llama, the part he thought was suspicious was that she said "I did have enough" not that she couldn't buy anything.

Dammit, people. If you're gonna make me build case after work, you'd better be around to change your votes when I do.

I should be around Russ. I am happy to listen to your thoughts and consider a vote change. Right now I am super not trusting MM though.

[Made]

Not sure if today has been insightful or just busy. Either way I recognize possible cognitive bias against MR, at the moment the case against eloh (save the "slip" which I doubt actually was one) seems strongest, switching my vote there.

As for MM, I really don't know. The reason I thought he was possibley baddie is he would have a crap ton of money and the difference between Dom's reason for grabbing vs. MM's. He seemed incredibly rational and logical, almost as if he overthought what he was saying?

Unless MM and MR are crazy God tier amazing mafia players, I doubt they are on the same team. Meaning at least of them is civvie.... Hopefully this isn't a civvie situation

LLama's assertivness as of today is starting to ping me Tbh, but Iunno.

No read on Russ other than the circumstances surrounding him. He seems genuine, but there's a lot of situations where a baddie Russ would be at an incredible advantage.

As of now I'm willing to vote Eloh, MR, and llama....but man Iunno...thoughts?

While pure speculation at this point, my main reason for thinking MM is civvie is because I think his vote yesterday was forced as well as Ninjas. Both votes, through no fault of MM and bloops, felt off.

The other way to look at this is a save, but the closest second (MR?) Didn't get enough votes in my eyes to make a save seem nessiary. Especially since we now know that ties are no lynched rather than random votes.

ThIs a boiled down version of what I wanted to post, but typing from my phone.

Switching vote to Eloh

[Made]

Also before we further interpret Eloh's potential slip (re-read it with Russ's post in mind so I get it now)

What exactly did you mean to say Eloh?

[Marmot]

Well I finished my exam early, so I'm back.

Made, I am very confident that MR is bad. But I'm having a harder time proving that than I am for Eloh. I'm gonna take a look at their interactions too, that might be telling.

[Marmot]

Okay, here is a list of all living players Eloh has interacted with. llama, this should please you a little more than rupee-counting. :P

llama, Made, MM, Russti, Snow Dog, fingersplints. That leaves ninja blooper and MR.

Here are the only two times she mentioned MR. The first time, she listed him as possible baddie, after disclaiming that she is not very suspicious of anyone. The second time she decided he was hard to read.

I feel the same way as these two and have said it before. The votes I have cast were based of suspicions that other players have brought up. I just don't see anyone as very suspicious so far. If I were to go with my gut (which is usually right btw) I would say...Russ, MR, and Made are the baddies. I am voting Russ today as I did yesterday.

Mr Rearranger - I'm not sure what to think after rereading him. He's hard to read...could be affiliated with either IMO.

[Elohcin]

Llama, the part he thought was suspicious was that she said "I did have enough" not that she couldn't buy anything.

Dammit, people. If you're gonna make me build case after work, you'd better be around to change your votes when I do.

haha, funny thing it....I sat there trying to figure out how to word it perfectly b/c I am very bad at looking bad when I am civ.

I even went to the front page after my post and saw the bomb was like 40 rupees or something. So, no, I don't think I could have bought it even if I were bad and could buy items. But I'm not and I can't

[Elohcin]

Russ, I really think you should give Made a second look. What do you think about voting him today?

[Marmot]

On the other side of the table. MR has not interacted with Eloh once, and this is the one time that he mentioned any sort of stance on her.

Russ, this is difficult. The two at the top of my list are MM and Snowie.

For the third spot, I'm struggling with a toss-up of Niju and Eloh.

Splints and Llama after that, in my "not confident, but leaning civ" group. But I've wavered and swapped them with Eloh in my mind at various points during the past 2 days as well. :/

And finally, feeling nearly confident that you and Made are good.

Aside from this post, MR has not offered any useful observations today. There has been a ton of discussion already, but look at these posts.

Aye. It took me a lot of days to do a lot of things in this game.

when did I get to your third spot?

You don't fit with the Snow and MM scenario, in my mind.

Are you surprised?

I was talking to llama. You have mentioned me lots, I wasn't be surprised by yours, if only a little bit that I wasn't higher.

linki. but why llama

Oh, haha. I was looking at that like you were his 2nd group and my 3rd. Mia culpa.

Finicky - fussy about one's needs or requirements

I don't know if fussy is the best description of me, Made.

Made, I did give my reason for gettng more active at the time of the Courage event. Isht became personal. I don't know if you're purposely or subconsciously ignoring it to fit your narrative, but I mentioned it a few times.

I feel like we're all just walls yelling at each other this game.

This is indeed a crucial point in the game, but for someone who has been active up to this point, he is not treating it as such. These posts read more like they came from a relaxed baddie not a civvie.

[Marmot]

Also of note, not only has Elohcin not interacted with ninja blooper, but MR hasn't either. He's only mentioned her in the same breath that he mentioned Elohcin today in the post I quoted in my previous post.

[Elohcin]

sorry for the triple post. I just noticed I now have 2 votes and metal has three. This is a crucial vote guys. I don't think Metal is bad. I think Made is.

linki: does that mean you are changing to MR? And if I haven't interacted with Niju, its b/c she hasn't really posted much. When I did my reread of everyone, she only had one page of posts.

[Marmot]

sorry for the triple post. I just noticed I now have 2 votes and metal has three. This is a crucial vote guys. I don't think Metal is bad. I think Made is.

linki: does that mean you are changing to MR? And if I haven't interacted with Niju, its b/c she hasn't really posted much. When I did my reread of everyone, she only had one page of posts.

Would you consider a vote for MR?

[Elohcin]

sorry for the triple post. I just noticed I now have 2 votes and metal has three. This is a crucial vote guys. I don't think Metal is bad. I think Made is.

linki: does that mean you are changing to MR? And if I haven't interacted with Niju, its b/c she hasn't really posted much. When I did my reread of everyone, she only had one page of posts.

Would you consider a vote for MR?

I am not sure. I see your recent case and it does make sence. I am most sure of made and russ though.....let me do some more considering. Even if we both voted MR, we would have to convince at least 2 others to vote that way too though.

[Mister Rearranger]

MM, if you want the masses to believe your talkativeness is indicative of civ alliance and anyone who you deem as not offering any "useful observations" is bad, go for it. I am relaxed, I have no reason to get invested in the game when I assume I've already lost by not participating sooner.

[Russtifinko]

Fingers, if you won't be around I am BEGGING you to vote Elo. I would build a case now if I could but I'm at work. I am almost entirely convinced MM is good. If u trust me in the slightest please go with me here. Lunching him might as well be ending the game, and I trust him almost as much as myself.

[thellama73]

Fingers, if you won't be around I am BEGGING you to vote Elo. I would build a case now if I could but I'm at work. I am almost entirely convinced MM is good. If u trust me in the slightest please go with me here. Lunching him might as well be ending the game, and I trust him almost as much as myself.

I wish you could elaborate on your MM trust. Because I don't trust him AT ALL. But I trust you. Quandry.

[fingersplints]

When I brought up Elo days ago, it was "I was trying to set her up." Now all of a sudden she is a major lynch candidate. Just seems like its coming out of nowhere. (I know process of elimination at this point yada yada.)
meh I am so unsure atm. Have a couple hours still

[Snow Dog]

Fingers, if you won't be around I am BEGGING you to vote Elo. I would build a case now if I could but I'm at work. I am almost entirely convinced MM is good. If u trust me in the slightest please go with me here. Lunching him might as well be ending the game, and I trust him almost as much as myself.

What is your stance on Made?

[Russtifinko]

Yeah it is, llama. MM has my full trust though, so if you really decide he's the best candidate you may as well vote me instead.

When I brought up Elo days ago, it was "I was trying to set her up." Now all of a sudden she is a major lynch candidate. Just seems like its coming out of nowhere. (I know process of elimination at this point yada yada.)
meh I am so unsure atm. Have a couple hours still

This is true. I even actually got on you for your Elo suspicion, because I always think she's bandwagony. Like I said a few days ago, though, things change. Two of those things are my opinion of you, which did a 180, and the number of people alive. Like you say, partly process of elimination. There's more too, though. She could probably have bought a bomb by Day 4, and her posts since she's come up have done very little to dissuade me from suspecting her. If it makes you feel better, you can get Hipster Points for suspecting her before it was cool.

Snowie, I'm undecided on Made. He's one of a very few players I am undecided about, actually. I haven't loved or trusted his posts today, and since becoming Made 2.0 he's had wacky ideas that I don't agree with or find logical. Some of them may be detrimental to civs, but I can't tell for sure of that's on purpose. I do think if we manage to lynch Elo and/or Ninja Blooper today and tomorrow I'll have decided on him by then, so til that point waiting doesn't bother me.

[Russtifinko]

Oh, and llama I did elaborate somewhat on my trust of him when you asked last night. I think it's on this page or the last one. Idk if it helps you or not, but it puts some reasoning behind it.

[thellama73]

Oh, and llama I did elaborate somewhat on my trust of him when you asked last night. I think it's on this page or the last one. Idk if it helps you or not, but it puts some reasoning behind it.

Okay, thanks. I went back and read your post. I don't fully agree with you though. I have seen baddies make the kind of post you don't think a baddie can possibly make before, and I have been fooled by them before. In particular, Long Con and MP like to do these kind of detailed analyses when they are bad.

I will definitely consider changing my vote before the end of the lynch though. We still have time. Is Eloh your first choice? I tend to agree with Made that I don't think her "slip" was a slip.

[Marmot]

Oh, and llama I did elaborate somewhat on my trust of him when you asked last night. I think it's on this page or the last one. Idk if it helps you or not, but it puts some reasoning behind it.

Okay, thanks. I went back and read your post. I don't fully agree with you though. I have seen baddies make the kind of post you don't think a baddie can possibly make before, and I have been fooled by them before. In particular, Long Con and MP like to do these kind of detailed analyses when they are bad.

I will definitely consider changing my vote before the end of the lynch though. We still have time. Is Eloh your first choice? I tend to agree with Made that I don't think her "slip" was a slip.

The 'slip' aside, would you mind looking at the correlations I pointed out between MR and Eloh and tell me what you think.

[thellama73]

Oh, and llama I did elaborate somewhat on my trust of him when you asked last night. I think it's on this page or the last one. Idk if it helps you or not, but it puts some reasoning behind it.

Okay, thanks. I went back and read your post. I don't fully agree with you though. I have seen baddies make the kind of post you don't think a baddie can possibly make before, and I have been fooled by them before. In particular, Long Con and MP like to do these kind of detailed analyses when they are bad.

I will definitely consider changing my vote before the end of the lynch though. We still have time. Is Eloh your first choice? I tend to agree with Made that I don't think her "slip" was a slip.

The 'slip' aside, would you mind looking at the correlations I pointed out between MR and Eloh and tell me what you think.

Okay, I'll do that now.

[Elohcin]

I'm a little nervous. I *think* MM is civ, but I *know* I am. So I am going to switch my vote to MM to save myself.

[thellama73]

You know, it's actually the most compelling case I've seen against her. It's sloppy, but I have seen baddies caught before by neglecting to interact with their teammates.

I also don't trust MR as far as I can throw him. I think his posting pattern this game screams that of a baddie who laid low the first half and emerged as he got more confident and his team started to win.

[thellama73]

Eloh, why the vote switch? MM already had more votes than you. It seems unnecessary.

[thellama73]

Eloh and MM, would you be willing to vote for MR if we could get a plurality?

[Marmot]

Eloh and MM, would you be willing to vote for MR if we could get a plurality?

Definitely, I'm confident MR and Eloh are both bad.

[fingersplints]

I'm switching to Elo now.

[fingersplints]

I just noticed your guys talk of MR. I'm leaving work soon then will be afk til after the lynch. So need to know what to do
Russ I will never trust you again if you screwed me over :P

[Mister Rearranger]

Psh, I'll vote Eloh as well. Like I said, MM is a suspect of mine along woth Snow, but Eloh or Niji have to fit somewhere in there.

[fingersplints]

damn I really was hoping peopl would show up in that time :/ gotta go now. here's hoping for the best

[Elohcin]

Eloh, why the vote switch? MM already had more votes than you. It seems unnecessary.

I said why, paranoia. And looks like I was right. You guys are barking up the wrong tree, I'm telling ya'.

[Elohcin]

Eloh and MM, would you be willing to vote for MR if we could get a plurality?

Definitely, I'm confident MR and Eloh are both bad.

I will vote MR. I don't think MM is bad! I was voting him to save myself.

[thellama73]

Alright, I'm switching to MR.

[Elohcin]

Alright, I'm switching to MR.

then I will too.

[Mister Rearranger]

Alright, I'm switching to MR.

then I will too.

Me three.

Oh, sh*t.

[Made]

I like an Elo Lynch, and I liked an MR lynch, but the fact that it's now between an eloh vs a MR is making me wavery. logically, if baddies are attempting a save they're not going to try to try to switch a mafia for mafia. I'm gonna have to keep my vote where it is. MR and Elo both look sus, but i don't like the sudden switch to MR. IF Elo flips baddie, these events will look really bad for Llama....

[thellama73]

I like an Elo Lynch, and I liked an MR lynch, but the fact that it's now between an eloh vs a MR is making me wavery. logically, if baddies are attempting a save they're not going to try to try to switch a mafia for mafia. I'm gonna have to keep my vote where it is. MR and Elo both look sus, but i don't like the sudden switch to MR. IF Elo flips baddie, these events will look really bad for Llama....

I am not worried about looking bad. I am worried about lynching the right person, and I am far more confident about MR than I am about Eloh.