The Syndicate

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 1:39 am

Made wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 1:18 am ight,
Here's my solve:
There's 17 players remaining. Right now we have 8 pseudo-confirmed town (including today's cop check). If we mischop everyday until day 12 (and no players die from anything other than chop/NK) , our final group would be 1 confirmed town (likely my cute invulnerable) , 3 unconfirmed players, and Alison.

If we can confirm one more player, outside of who Jack will confirm today, Day 12 is 2 confirmed town, 2 unconfirmed town and Alison can force a town win.
If we can confirm two more players, it's an automatic town win. Lylo would always have a confirmed town majority.

A few vig shots in the pool of non-confirmed players also brings us closer to a forced town win. So yeah, let's turbo this!!! Who in the group of players that we haven't confirmed town yet has been spewed town by Nanook, Cat, Marmot, or Sloonei? If we can find two of them**, we win.

Here's my work (warning it might not make any sense)
Players remaining:17

Spoiler: show

before i go into my bullshit...


okay let's solve!

Players remaining: 17
Alison
Dr Wilgy
Dizzy
Hk
Hyena
Jack
Jpic
Kyle
LC
Made
Radishes
Michelle
syn
ted
tim
tony
tutuu


ok, so confirmed not scum in that group is:
Alison (basically)
Jack
Kyle (basically)
Made (or sub yourself if you're town)
Michelle (if we trust that Sloonei doesn't pitch to his teammate)
Syn
Tutuu
+whoever Jack confirms today

players left over:
Wilgy
Dizzy
HK
Hyena
Jpic
Tim
LC
Radishes
Ted
Tony
minus one, because of whoever Jack's confirming today.

And here's the solve:
key: Dx (mislynch/mafia kill) # of players remaining
D6 Ted/Jack 15
D7 Jpic/Syn 13
D8 Radishes/Tutuu 11
D9 Dizzy/Kyle 9
D10 HK/Michelle 7
D11 Hyena/Made 5

Going into day 12 with 5 players left, our final group would still have 1 confirmed town, 3 unconfirmed players, and Alison
** I don't know how to say this neatly, but we win the game assuming there is a town observer at this point. from the POV of a nonconfirmed player (ie me) the game is solved at 2 more confirmed players. If I some how get confirmed, then from a universal pov, we will still need 2 town more confirmed town to force a win

Another edge case to consider is if we find another 3p in our PoE. If they town side they can force a win similar to Alison in the 1 more confirmed player situation....if they're anti town we kill them as if they were still in PoE and the math doesn't really change i don't think.

Made is deepwolf

Michelle wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 2:18 am Morning, lazy me says Ted is the safest bet today and being monday i will come back in around 12 hours with more.

@Made i am not mechanically confirmed, idk what are you talking about.
The idea i am town is correct, the mech thingy is not and i don't get it

I forgot who said that me and Wilgy are aligned, we are only if he is also villager. Who knows him better and can read him? From my Pov he looks 85% like a villager.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 2:35 am don’t know how i’m keeping my composure in this game. town’s getting sloppy in complacency.

if you think the last mafia steals people from the poll just have kyle steal one of my abilities at random, cuz i don’t have such a thing.

but i realize most of the votes are gonna be nonsensical at this point in the game

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 2:50 am

tedxtr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 2:35 am don’t know how i’m keeping my composure in this game. town’s getting sloppy in complacency.

if you think the last mafia steals people from the poll just have kyle steal one of my abilities at random, cuz i don’t have such a thing.

but i realize most of the votes are gonna be nonsensical at this point in the game

I've been saying this for a while. It has not made me popular. I would much rather spike a wolf than you, who are probably exactly the third party you claim to be.

So.

Who's a wolf?

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sun Feb 28, 2021 9:46 pm Alison selecting out of the agreed pool smh

Oh well, made is probs town anyway

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:08 am

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Sun Feb 28, 2021 9:46 pm Alison selecting out of the agreed pool smh

Oh well, made is probs town anyway

i'm tired of my contractees dying because I need them alive to fulfil my win condition

made claimed to be unkillable at night and consensus town during the day

so I picked made

tedxtr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:03 am i would’ve said probably michelle in that pool too but kyle cleared them? or was it not a clear?

dunno, harder to muster up interest in solving when you aren’t actually a villager and everyone votes you just cuz you claimed 3p

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:18 am

tedxtr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:03 am i would’ve said probably michelle in that pool too but kyle cleared them? or was it not a clear?

dunno, harder to muster up interest in solving when you aren’t actually a villager and everyone votes you just cuz you claimed 3p

cannot clear michelle or or wilgy really.

without knowing what power i steal and with the power being public knowledge the thief power mostly just functions to stress me out.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:00 amjust in case kyle isn’t lying about being 3p (i couldn’t check tonight) then it has to be tutuu, don’t think it can be LC

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:23 am

tedxtr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:00 amjust in case kyle isn’t lying about being 3p (i couldn’t check tonight) then it has to be tutuu, don’t think it can be LC

question w/r/t this, i feel like you've theorized that i was 3p or indy or at least searching for something or someone since like day 2, did you check me to see if i was the space ship you're looking for

tutuu wrote: ↑Sun Feb 28, 2021 11:40 pm The last mafia role hides people from the poll

If its not ted then yeah its someone else who does this

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:25 am i think the greatest argument for yeeting someone other than ted today is that it's sexy and exciting to fly oh so very close to the sun like sweet sweet icarus

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:23 am

tedxtr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:00 amjust in case kyle isn’t lying about being 3p (i couldn’t check tonight) then it has to be tutuu, don’t think it can be LC

question w/r/t this, i feel like you've theorized that i was 3p or indy or at least searching for something or someone since like day 2, did you check me to see if i was the space ship you're looking for

Made wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 1:18 am*snip*

tedxtr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:01 am I actually don’t know how big the mafia team is rn, assuming 1-2 then it’s probably in the pool of tutuu / wilgy / idk who

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:34 am

Made wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 1:18 am*snip*

i think hyena could hypothetically be cleared... sort of. there's no reason the hosts couldn't do it, but setting up live players with dead ones for btsc would be a buckwild power to give to the mafia, to the point that the optimal way to play that would be to just not use it. (standard wifom caveat i guess)

like there's always loopholes but i think at the very least hyena is way way way at the outer edge of the PoE

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:29 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:25 am i think the greatest argument for yeeting someone other than ted today is that it's sexy and exciting to fly oh so very close to the sun like sweet sweet icarus

I think the argument for wolf hunting is that other than Jack handing us one on a plate we haven't hit with a chop since day two so the whole "just chop the 3P and then we'll suddenly have no trouble finding wolves" seems pretty sketchy.

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:35 am

tedxtr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:01 am I actually don’t know how big the mafia team is rn, assuming 1-2 then it’s probably in the pool of tutuu / wilgy / idk who

tutuu is spewed town

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:34 am

Made wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 1:18 am*snip*

i think hyena could hypothetically be cleared... sort of. there's no reason the hosts couldn't do it, but setting up live players with dead ones for btsc would be a buckwild power to give to the mafia, to the point that the optimal way to play that would be to just not use it. (standard wifom caveat i guess)

like there's always loopholes but i think at the very least hyena is way way way at the outer edge of the PoE

tedxtr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:37 am

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:35 am

tedxtr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:01 am I actually don’t know how big the mafia team is rn, assuming 1-2 then it’s probably in the pool of tutuu / wilgy / idk who

tutuu is spewed town

if kyle is legit then he either hit a mafia in the lc / me / tutuu pool or he got redirected.

and reading tutuu’s last posts on me (page before this one) it kinda reads like her vote on me is for no reason, since she thinks i’m a 3p and not a mafia given kyle’s check

so then why vote for me over a wolf?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:36 am

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:29 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:25 am i think the greatest argument for yeeting someone other than ted today is that it's sexy and exciting to fly oh so very close to the sun like sweet sweet icarus

I think the argument for wolf hunting is that other than Jack handing us one on a plate we haven't hit with a chop since day two so the whole "just chop the 3P and then we'll suddenly have no trouble finding wolves" seems pretty sketchy.

maybe if you smoke some weed you'll feel better

Made wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:40 am @Timsup2nothin do you get any more shots?

Timsup2nothin wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:43 am

Made wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:40 am @Timsup2nothin do you get any more shots?

Nope.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:42 am oh yeah she claimed baseball thrown at her

But then why wouldn’t sloonei target her again if she was actually targeted?

did someone else claim to be thrown a ball after that day?

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:40 am

tedxtr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:37 am

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:35 am

tedxtr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:01 am I actually don’t know how big the mafia team is rn, assuming 1-2 then it’s probably in the pool of tutuu / wilgy / idk who

tutuu is spewed town

if kyle is legit then he either hit a mafia in the lc / me / tutuu pool or he got redirected.

and reading tutuu’s last posts on me (page before this one) it kinda reads like her vote on me is for no reason, since she thinks i’m a 3p and not a mafia given kyle’s check

so then why vote for me over a wolf?

dunno

But tutuu had the baseball thrown at her and as I said previously, mafia don’t try and kill mafia.

Made wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:46 am

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:40 am

tedxtr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:37 am

Justplayingitcool wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:35 am

tedxtr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 3:01 am I actually don’t know how big the mafia team is rn, assuming 1-2 then it’s probably in the pool of tutuu / wilgy / idk who

tutuu is spewed town

if kyle is legit then he either hit a mafia in the lc / me / tutuu pool or he got redirected.

and reading tutuu’s last posts on me (page before this one) it kinda reads like her vote on me is for no reason, since she thinks i’m a 3p and not a mafia given kyle’s check

so then why vote for me over a wolf?

dunno

But tutuu had the baseball thrown at her and as I said previously, mafia don’t try and kill mafia.

Tho, if we wanna tinfoil proof this, the earlier the throw the less likely scum threw at scum