staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 12:08 am
trustfall:
so, for those of you who are uninitiated, the premise behind a trustfall is simply to “name the best reasons you can think of the call a player town”.
i do mental trustfalls in pretty much every game i play, but i feel like the gamestate right now kind of necessitates me thinking out loud and sharing that process as transparently as possible
so, let’s get started:
dennis
-he had a towny reaction to being potentially eliminated yesterday - continuing to post as normal and seeming to take the elimination in stride, when if dennis was the final maf, i would expect him to be a bit more panicked/concerned? his post at p#1732 looks like a villager who realizes he should stop talking bcuz he might be dead, and not like a wolf who is worried that the game is about to come to an end
-what benefit does dennis have to defend me as a wolf yesterday? i don’t see a clear one. if dennis is mafia, then he has the easiest excuse in the world to push on me. kate died and she was convinced i was mafia. sixstrings was confident i was mafia too. why not just go the path of least resistance and sheep his family?
if dennis is mafia, then he would need to be playing from the perspective that he has to secure as many miseliminations as possible. bearing that in mind, it would have probably been a lot easier for dennis to get me eliminated first followed by sixstrings, instead of the other way around. i would have (likely) died with sixstrings in my immediate POE, and sixstrings would look bad after i flipped town. so, again, why not just vote me out and then use my elimination as an excuse to get sixstrings voted out the next day? that’s two miseliminations right there!
so in short, i’m struggling to see why dennis goes out of his way to make the game harder for himself in a world where he’s mafia
neon
-to put it as simply as possible, it does not feel to me like neon had TMI of falcon’s alignment. she went out of her way to defend him and call him a likely town flip, even at a point when falcon had seemed to have given up on saving himself
there is no real strategic incentive that i can see for neon defending falcon in the way that she did, and i think that her defense of falcon particularly makes sense in the context of falcon seeming to play in a way that was intended to manipulate neon’s meta on him (ie: the super pockety posts he made toward her, and the way neon expressed the sentiment that falcon might not be so bold as to try to pocket her 2 games in a row)
-the specific way that neon defended falcon aligns with the exact meta that ive seen in the last 2 games ive played with her (ie: neon has a tendency to passionately defend players she thinks are being treated/pushed unfairly), and idk if she would go out of her way to replicate this meta as a wolf unless her goal was to pocket just specifically me
-p#102 from seanzie (the post where seanzie is like: “i believe that SPF is telling the truth about mafia, and i think you do too”) is a weird post to make toward your own partner, because it feels a bit …like gaslighting in a sense? the wording of the post comes off as rather manipulative and i struggle to understand what the train of thought behind that post was if seanzie/neon were W/W, whereas it’s easy for me to see why seanzie would make that post if neon is town and he wanted to convince her that i’m mafia
-the way falcon talked about neon on p#271, p#275, and p#337 (and other posts, but those feel like the big ones to me) all feel a bit like TMI of her alignment
hard to imagine falcon going out of his way to hard townread his partner in the early stages of the game, but easy to imagine falcon trying to pocket neon in the early stages of the game by talking about how towny she is
-the way falcon sheeped neon on psv felt a bit like a wolf piggybacking off of a villagers incorrect push as opposed to a wolf sheeping another wolf
-super small point, but i like that neon essentially gave a non-answer on p#75 when she was asked to explain her townread on falcon, (Ie: “vibes”), when wolves who are TRing their partners or trying to powerwolf tend to be a bit more overly explanatory, in my experience
potentialsheltervet
-seanzie’s treatment of psv arguably spews PSV as town. for example:
1. i find it kind of difficult to imagine seanzie going out of his way to dunk on his partner as soon as the game starts (p#61)
2. ………if seanzie went out of his way to dunk on his partner as soon as the game starts, why not commit to distancing from her? why do this really awkward shift where you start acting cloying toward her and talk about how her responses have been towny? (ie: p#191, p#296, p#452
3. it’s kind of easy for me to see seanzie pushing on PSV at the start of the game as a way to “anchor” himself into the game or produce content, and then backing off once he saw that PSV was pushing on him for it and that he wanted to catch less heat. it’s a little harder for me to understand why seanzie would open the game by distancing from his partner, only to change his mind rather awkwardly and abruptly
-falcon pushing on PSV with neon reads a bit like a wolf trying to find an easy name to push on, though this is a more minor point since his push on her was ultimately fairly limited
-idk if psv would be so bold as to townread both of her partners toward the beginning of the game at p#277
-it was easy to see the writing on the wall that falcon was going to die on d2, but PSV played in a way that gave her zero towncred from his flip. i would expect a wolf on d2 to distance a bit from falcon at least a little bit or call him null or something, but PSV outright said he was town and that she didn’t want to vote for him. again, this is a counter intuitive way for PSV to treat falcon if they are W/W and she is preparing to solo endgame
-psv has felt like one of most invested/solvey players over the last dayphase or so. this isn’t super town indicative since maf are capable of being invested too, but i kind of anticipate maf would feel a bit demotivated here, and i dont sense that in psv’s play
pyxxy
-it’s a bit towny in a vacuum that pyxxy called out falcon on p#503 and that he seemed actively suspicious of him in the early game before most players were. if falcon and pyxxy are W/W and pyxxy was trying to distance from him, not totally sure why he would switch his read on falcon on d2 so abruptly
-there are some micro towntells i’ve picked up on from pyxxy, like his handling of camilia on d1, or him saying that he should be POE’d below sig,
sig
-i like sig coming right out of the gate pushing on falcon on d2 on p#1169, when a wolf might be more reluctant to hardbus their remaining partner at that stage
-at a very base level, i think that sig’s posts are good. i have townread him whenever i see him posting in the thread in realtime, because his posts seem to indicate a high depth of thought and i generally find it easy to understand his conclusions even if i disagree with them. (ie: based on this analysis, i think the 3 person POE he’s pushing of myself/psv/dennis is likely wrong, but i can believe that he believes in it)
i also found it towny that he said he was purposely withholding some of his thoughts on p#1497 bcuz he wanted to let the day play out, and i think it’s difficult for wolves to come up with posts like that organically
it’s difficult to know how much weight to put into this, because i don’t have a good feel for how wide sig’s scumrange is, but it’s something on my mind regardless
tedxtr
falcon pushed on ted and voted for him rather abruptly on p#922 and p#923, and i kind of think this might be clearing for ted
that’s because at the time, falcon was the leading wagon (to my memory) and one of the main contenders for elimination. ted was one of the other leading candidates for miselimination at the time, and i had my vote parked on him
so,, falcon abruptly jumping on ted after barely mentioning him and then pushing on him with some posts that feel quite explicitly “bad faith” reads to me more like a wolf who is trying to find an excuse to get a villager miseliminated and self-preserve, as opposed to a wolf who is bussing another wolf
if falcon was bussing ted, i would expect their dynamic to play out a bit differently from how it did. for one, i think that ted would have probably made a bigger show out of his push on falcon instead of just saying: “is falcon still in his wolf meta?” and parking his vote on him once he got a “yes” answer, and i think that falcon would have proly tried to make his push look more aggressive/clearing for ted instead of just pushing on him in the laziest/most opportunistic way possible
-super minor point, but there was a point on d1 when ted and falcon were both parked on psv together (which kate pointed out on p#562), and i tend to think that wolves are generally cautious about parking on wagons together and try to distance by voting for different players, esp on d1 when voting with each other is almost never necessary
-another smaller point, but ted’s solving has just consistently felt “real” to me in a way that scum solving usually does not, such as his conviction on PSV being mafia and the way he has gravitated back and forth toward pursuing his read on her to losing confidence in it, or his hedginess about who should die at the end of yesterday, or even the way he questioned me about why i was interrogating kate at the end of d3
