The Syndicate

tutuu rn

I kinda think Martin is town. I vibe too hard with his thought process not to townread him.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:35 pm Showing only votes on Long Con and Alison in chronological order

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:45 pm [VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:20 pm [VOTE: Alison] aubergine

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:25 am[VOTE: lc] aubergine

Thunal votes Alison here, but voted LC later.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:08 pm [VOTE: Alison] aubergine

Sloonei voted both LC and Alison here, so that doesn't really matter.

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:29 pm [VOTE: long con] aubergine

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:35 pm And [VOTE: LC] aubergine

Thunal votes LC here, but voted Alison earlier.

Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:59 pm [VOTE: alison] aubergine

Okay, @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME's story checks out. At the time of the votes, if he were mafia, he would be bussing his teammate.

Though in the end it wouldn't matter if Nanook didn't vote unless the future votes were swayed by Nook's vote.

Fact checking Nanook's story looks towny for Martin IMO. I looked at Martin's posts with Long Con or LC in them and I didn't find a lot going for him either way. He found LC suspicious but held off on pushing him because others said this was just LC's meta, and I felt the exact same way on D1 which makes Martin look a little better if anything. I also think regardless of Martin's alignment the fact that his posts say "If I'm town" are more indicative that he's a newer player that doesn't know he would generally get townread more if he said "when" instead of "if" instead of alignment indicative, and he did give good reasoning for using "if" instead of "when" or other completely confident language.

I could see the "if I'm town" bits as being similar to "if it's not green vote me out" style ultimatums in Among Us, where you phrase it as an "if" even though you saw green slaughter someone in front of you and know for a fact they are scum.

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:12 pm I could see the "if I'm town" bits as being similar to "if it's not green vote me out" style ultimatums in Among Us, where you phrase it as an "if" even though you saw green slaughter someone in front of you and know for a fact they are scum.

Okay, that does kinda make sense (and look a bit silly lol) when you apply it to thunder-domes in Among Us

I should say "When" instead of "if" then.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:05 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:01 pm "Nothing has negatively pinged me yet" seems at odds with your characterization of Thunal as being so strongly town you're willing to townclear her and POE out whoever's left as the scum team.

Well perhaps I'm using words that have a different set value or meaning to you than it does to me.

Or I'm terrible at communicating.

Or I did communicate what I meant, and that's a play by me that you disagree with.

Even in the last case, I do try to be as consistent as possible in my beliefs.

However, as some have noticed I haven't exactly been consistent for the entirety of D2 in some ways.

I'm trying to fix that about myself.

I can relate to this post a lot, especially the bolded. I've been suspected for being inconsistent as both alignments a lot of times even though I try to be consistent. I've found that I need to approach mafia like I would approach a math test: show every little bit of my thought process especially when I change a read.

Honestly, part of me wants to townread you based on the effort and depth you're putting into your takes. This is your 6th or 7th game right? And first on this forum. I feel like a relatively new scum player on a completely new site who knows nobody wouldn't be able to generate the amount of reasonable content you have.

Can you link to some of your meta?

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:06 pm tutuu rn

Spoiler: show

loooool yessssss

i dip myself in nutella every night so i become more sweet and tasty

martin’s posts have a sort of self-consciously honest feel to them that makes it very hard to scum read him. he sounds so pure

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:12 pm I could see the "if I'm town" bits as being similar to "if it's not green vote me out" style ultimatums in Among Us, where you phrase it as an "if" even though you saw green slaughter someone in front of you and know for a fact they are scum.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:15 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:12 pm I could see the "if I'm town" bits as being similar to "if it's not green vote me out" style ultimatums in Among Us, where you phrase it as an "if" even though you saw green slaughter someone in front of you and know for a fact they are scum.

Okay, that does kinda make sense (and look a bit silly lol) when you apply it to thunder-domes in Among Us

I should say "When" instead of "if" then.

Using "when" probably will get you more townread. Generally through experience people pick up on these little things that can get you townread that really shouldn't matter but do anyway.

its cool if u keep saying if martin, its up to u. im pretty sure ive said "if im town" a bunch of times this game

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:16 pm Can you link to some of your meta?

I don't really have a good game to show my current town meta....a lot of it relied on reads analysis and methodical non-gut play.

I've been trying to balance it recently with some gut play since I recently had an anonymous game (which I could link but I wasn't acting my meta since it was anonymous) where I had my first correct scum-read and it was partially made on gut.

This was my last scum game, and its the most accurate tbh of my scum meta:

https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthre ... dder-Game)

I mostly tried to poke holes where I could, and on D2 of that game I specifically scum-read and cased a player who I felt was close to making a strong town-core of sorts. They got eliminated that day, though that wasn't without the help of a townie who thunder-domed my the player that I cased.

Keep in mind this was during the summer where I had a lot of free time.

tutuu wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:20 pm its cool if u keep saying if martin, its up to u. im pretty sure ive said "if im town" a bunch of times this game

Where are you at right now? Who are your top suspects and top townreads?

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:21 pm I don't really have a good game to show my current town meta....a lot of it in the past relied on reads analysis and methodical non-gut play.

Edit by way of post.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:21 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:20 pm its cool if u keep saying if martin, its up to u. im pretty sure ive said "if im town" a bunch of times this game

Where are you at right now? Who are your top suspects and top townreads?

im said im simping nutella, baby girl, that aint a joke

u guys do the effort. im a bitch (and a boss). bosses dont do grunt's work

(and imma shine like gloss)

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:17 pm martin’s posts have a sort of self-consciously honest feel to them that makes it very hard to scum read him. he sounds so pure

fwiw im having a similar struggle with martin right now - i do think that there's evidence to suggest that he has a solid chance of being scum, but there is a certain authenticity to his tone that makes it hard for me to feel confident about my push on him. it actually reminds me a LOT of the situation with chemist in the final champs game - the evidence and my perception of their tone dont match

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:02 pm I wonder. If:

SPF + Hally + Thunal we all write off as being 100% confirmed town (not really confirmed but y'know)....would it be possible to ensure a town win?

There are 7 towns left and 2 Mafia/Scum/Wolves left

We have 2 miseliminations left before elo (eliminate correctly or lose), since 2 towns die each day+night phase presuming there is a miselimination.

You just described a POE lol

Auto is any 6 town locked in I believe

Realistically we can probably lock in 4-5

And then use world building to figure out the sixth down the line

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:21 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:16 pm Can you link to some of your meta?

I don't really have a good game to show my current town meta....a lot of it relied on reads analysis and methodical non-gut play.

I've been trying to balance it recently with some gut play since I recently had an anonymous game (which I could link but I wasn't acting my meta since it was anonymous) where I had my first correct scum-read and it was partially made on gut.

This was my last scum game, and its the most accurate tbh of my scum meta:

https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthre ... dder-Game)

I mostly tried to poke holes where I could, and on D2 of that game I specifically scum-read and cased a player who I felt was close to making a strong town-core of sorts. They got eliminated that day, though that wasn't without the help of a townie who thunder-domed my the player that I cased.

Keep in mind this was during the summer where I had a lot of free time.

Can relate, I have school now and I dislike that I can't play quite as strongly as I was able to in the summer. Your scum game feels like you committed to honesty at some level and didn't want to lie (at least at the start which is what I read). You were making a lot of honest statements (talking about finding the 3p, not solving for mafia for awhile, talking about the setup and past games) instead of starting by giving town/mafia leans or thoughts on players' alignments. Your townlean on me looks good from that perspective since you townleaned me at the start of page 2 while there was quite a bit of content generated in the SC2 game before you gave your first read on page 4. However, you did talk a lot about the setup and strategies in both this game and your scum game.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:31 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:17 pm martin’s posts have a sort of self-consciously honest feel to them that makes it very hard to scum read him. he sounds so pure

fwiw im having a similar struggle with martin right now - i do think that there's evidence to suggest that he has a solid chance of being scum, but there is a certain authenticity to his tone that makes it hard for me to feel confident about my push on him. it actually reminds me a LOT of the situation with chemist in the final champs game - the evidence and my perception of their tone dont match

What is the evidence he's scum from your POV?

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:21 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:16 pm Can you link to some of your meta?

I don't really have a good game to show my current town meta....a lot of it relied on reads analysis and methodical non-gut play.

I've been trying to balance it recently with some gut play since I recently had an anonymous game (which I could link but I wasn't acting my meta since it was anonymous) where I had my first correct scum-read and it was partially made on gut.

This was my last scum game, and its the most accurate tbh of my scum meta:

https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthre ... dder-Game)

I mostly tried to poke holes where I could, and on D2 of that game I specifically scum-read and cased a player who I felt was close to making a strong town-core of sorts. They got eliminated that day, though that wasn't without the help of a townie who thunder-domed my the player that I cased.

Keep in mind this was during the summer where I had a lot of free time.

how do i iso on your home site?

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:31 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:17 pm martin’s posts have a sort of self-consciously honest feel to them that makes it very hard to scum read him. he sounds so pure

fwiw im having a similar struggle with martin right now - i do think that there's evidence to suggest that he has a solid chance of being scum, but there is a certain authenticity to his tone that makes it hard for me to feel confident about my push on him. it actually reminds me a LOT of the situation with chemist in the final champs game - the evidence and my perception of their tone dont match

wow mindmeld haha im just a townie

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:34 pm Can relate, I have school now and I dislike that I can't play quite as strongly as I was able to in the summer. Your scum game feels like you committed to honesty at some level and didn't want to lie (at least at the start which is what I read). You were making a lot of honest statements (talking about finding the 3p, not solving for mafia for awhile, talking about the setup and past games) instead of starting by giving town/mafia leans or thoughts on players' alignments. Your townlean on me looks good from that perspective since you townleaned me at the start of page 2 while there was quite a bit of content generated in the SC2 game before you gave your first read on page 4. However, you did talk a lot about the setup and strategies in both this game and your scum game.

Funny story, actually.

If I actually listened to my 2nd post of that game, about the 3p, I would've found the 3p and (maybe) not lose LOL.

It just felt like karma-esque irony for being scum (and maybe a bit too much ego).

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:36 pm how do i iso on your home site?

Oh yeah here's the link: https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/search.p ... id=3309984

You can either go to the forum list thing and click on "replies" and then click the post-count number of the associated player

or just open up the game and advance search for X username only.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:38 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:34 pm Can relate, I have school now and I dislike that I can't play quite as strongly as I was able to in the summer. Your scum game feels like you committed to honesty at some level and didn't want to lie (at least at the start which is what I read). You were making a lot of honest statements (talking about finding the 3p, not solving for mafia for awhile, talking about the setup and past games) instead of starting by giving town/mafia leans or thoughts on players' alignments. Your townlean on me looks good from that perspective since you townleaned me at the start of page 2 while there was quite a bit of content generated in the SC2 game before you gave your first read on page 4. However, you did talk a lot about the setup and strategies in both this game and your scum game.

Funny story, actually.

If I actually listened to my 2nd post of that game, about the 3p, I would've found the 3p and (maybe) not lose LOL.

It just felt like karma-esque irony for being scum (and maybe a bit too much ego).

In the last game I played I definitely had the same problem but I was town, if I had just listened to my early D1 reads I would have caught 2 scum.

Was I right that you didn't really want to lie in your scum game and preferred being honest?

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:40 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:36 pm how do i iso on your home site?

Oh yeah here's the link: https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/search.p ... id=3309984

You can either go to the forum list thing and click on "replies" and then click the post-count number of the associated player

or just open up the game and advance search for X username only.

for some reason on mobile the actual posts don’t show up in the results

weh

how did martin and long con interact?

i pointed out on #1745 that martin's initial progression on long con is concerning - he initially throws out long con as a name that he's willing to vote on d1, but a couple of hours later, he says that he's no longer interested in voting long con because a couple of people had outed townreads on him. he continues to throw shade on long con throughout the day while also frequently emphasizing that he's not interested in actually voting for him - it really does make me feel like martin was trying to have it both ways with long con. if he is partnered with long con, then his attitude toward him on d1 gave him the perfect excuse to continually throw dirt on lc without actually having to commit to the read

martin shows a little bit of hedginess toward lc in this post:

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:59 pm I don't think the derp-clear was scummy at all by Long Con, but I personally can't find it towny on an independent play basis.

shrug.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:13 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:32 pm Blind Interactions

Is there anything preventing you from saying I could be "particularly compatible" with Sloonei or don't appear to be "likely mafia teammates" with Sloonei?

I could imagine arguments for both, but to see you only team me up with Long Con and not really Sloonei (who's marked as having yellow with me) has me curious.

this is a post that made me say "hm" out loud. martin is outright saying: "hey, don't look at long con - look at sloonei instead!". it's so brazen that i almost think it could indicate that he and long con aren't partnered together

martin puts long con toward the bottom of his town list on #1307

martin says that long con is scum during jagged's gth exercise on #1338. it's actually quite interesting to me that martin chooses to scumread long con here, since his attitude before that posted seemed to be a light town lean. i'd be interested to hear why martin said lc was scum during jagged's exercise

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:59 pm Long Con---Do I reaaallllyyyyy need to talk about this one? He hasn't done much afaik. I've held off just because people said its his meta to be like he was during D1.

i really dislike this post - martin is going out of his way to say that LC is null and acting annoyed that he has to talk about him at all - even though he spent a lot of d1 implying that long con was scummy, and he put long con as gth scum in an exercise a few hours earlier. i don't understand why martin would choose to hedge on lc's alignment here as town, especially since his reasoning for "holding off" feels more and more flimsy the longer that he uses it as a justification for not taking a stance on lc

how did long con interact with martin?

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:54 pm And we will take out Sloonei and Martin.

this is 100% just a hunch, but i have a feeling that lc would be likely to include at least one of his partners in a post like this (ie: an early post that throws shade on two POE players without actually making moves to push on them)

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:04 pm Either way, Martin's warning looks townish to me. Scum would want a villager to screw up and get punished, I think.

Linki: That's rough. @JaggedJimmyJay what do you think of that?

not sure if LC would defend his partner as brazenly as he does here. you can consider this a light point in martin's favor

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:53 pm Martin has given me the most consistent and vocal suspicion out of anyone, and we're the only pair you find has m-m potential?

lol this is the exact same thing that martin said about long con, but just reversed. i actually find it weirdly suspicious how hard martin/lc tried to throw shade on the idea that they could be partnered

conclusion: martin had a relatively inconsistent & confusing approach toward reading long con - there were many times where it felt that martin was suspicious of long con, but he continually made excuses to avoid having to push on him or pursue that angle. there are a few moments that give me pause and make me think that this pairing is too brazen to be reality - but there is nothing here that clears long con/martin from being partnered together, i think that's notable

do any of u know if there's a way to hyperlink posts within my own posts, like u can do on mafiauniverse? it's a lot easier than having to directly quote everything i want to reference

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:36 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:21 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:16 pm Can you link to some of your meta?

I don't really have a good game to show my current town meta....a lot of it relied on reads analysis and methodical non-gut play.

I've been trying to balance it recently with some gut play since I recently had an anonymous game (which I could link but I wasn't acting my meta since it was anonymous) where I had my first correct scum-read and it was partially made on gut.

This was my last scum game, and its the most accurate tbh of my scum meta:

https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthre ... dder-Game)

I mostly tried to poke holes where I could, and on D2 of that game I specifically scum-read and cased a player who I felt was close to making a strong town-core of sorts. They got eliminated that day, though that wasn't without the help of a townie who thunder-domed my the player that I cased.

Keep in mind this was during the summer where I had a lot of free time.

how do i iso on your home site?

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:31 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:17 pm martin’s posts have a sort of self-consciously honest feel to them that makes it very hard to scum read him. he sounds so pure

fwiw im having a similar struggle with martin right now - i do think that there's evidence to suggest that he has a solid chance of being scum, but there is a certain authenticity to his tone that makes it hard for me to feel confident about my push on him. it actually reminds me a LOT of the situation with chemist in the final champs game - the evidence and my perception of their tone dont match

wow mindmeld haha im just a townie

vote: hally

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:36 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:31 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:17 pm martin’s posts have a sort of self-consciously honest feel to them that makes it very hard to scum read him. he sounds so pure

fwiw im having a similar struggle with martin right now - i do think that there's evidence to suggest that he has a solid chance of being scum, but there is a certain authenticity to his tone that makes it hard for me to feel confident about my push on him. it actually reminds me a LOT of the situation with chemist in the final champs game - the evidence and my perception of their tone dont match

What is the evidence he's scum from your POV?

i outlined some issues i have w/martin in the interaction analysis i just posted - but i also took issue with some of martin's pushes/reads on d1 as well (ie: his push on tutuu that dissipated with no real progression, and a strange justification for wanting an alison chop)

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:47 pm do any of u know if there's a way to hyperlink posts within my own posts, like u can do on mafiauniverse? it's a lot easier than having to directly quote everything i want to reference

I think you might have to do it manually, the URL style like this. The post numbers on each post are a link to that post, so the URL is easy to get.

Thought I would be very much pleased if there was a way to do p#1

One takeaway I have from reading some of Martin's later posts from his scum game is that I revoke the "effort/content generating" reason to townread him. He was able to give plenty of content and long posts in his scum game. His tone does feel somewhat different though, a bit less honest and more detached.

I'm back to thinking Martin is just town. I want to see more from Sloonei - if we set Thunal aside he's my strongest scumread.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:52 pm One takeaway I have from reading some of Martin's later posts from his scum game is that I revoke the "effort/content generating" reason to townread him. He was able to give plenty of content and long posts in his scum game. His tone does feel somewhat different though, a bit less honest and more detached.

You should never volume clear players with Martin's playstyle. But Martin has been super townie outside of that one interaction and I don't think someone of his playstyle and personality would find it easy (or even possible, maybe) to fake a tone this good on less than 10 mafia games. He's town.

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:05 pm I'm back to thinking Martin is just town. I want to see more from Sloonei - if we set Thunal aside he's my strongest scumread.

could you break down your thought process on martin for me? what made you go from townreading him to being suspicious of him to townreading him again? do his interactions with long con play a factor into ur read at all?

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:06 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:05 pm I'm back to thinking Martin is just town. I want to see more from Sloonei - if we set Thunal aside he's my strongest scumread.

could you break down your thought process on martin for me? what made you go from townreading him to being suspicious of him to townreading him again? do his interactions with long con play a factor into ur read at all?

#1528 was my town case on Martin. Then he had a bad entrance today. #1825 sums up my issues with that entrance. Then I questioned him further and his tone + thought process was just so easy to vibe with that I dismissed my concerns. One of my concerns ("if I am town...") was alleviated by the fact that it's a common turn of phrase used by actual townies in other games.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:50 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:47 pm do any of u know if there's a way to hyperlink posts within my own posts, like u can do on mafiauniverse? it's a lot easier than having to directly quote everything i want to reference

I think you might have to do it manually, the URL style like this. The post numbers on each post are a link to that post, so the URL is easy to get.

Thought I would be very much pleased if there was a way to do p#1

thanks! that's definitely an easier method than what i was doing previously

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:05 pm I'm back to thinking Martin is just town. I want to see more from Sloonei - if we set Thunal aside he's my strongest scumread.

I finally have a couple of days off, so I plan to spend a good chunk of time tomorrow isoing people for long con interactions.

I’ll be hovering around the thread for the evening tonight, but no heavy lifting yet.

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:05 pm I'm back to thinking Martin is just town. I want to see more from Sloonei - if we set Thunal aside he's my strongest scumread.

who is sloonei’s teammate?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:14 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:05 pm I'm back to thinking Martin is just town. I want to see more from Sloonei - if we set Thunal aside he's my strongest scumread.

I finally have a couple of days off, so I plan to spend a good chunk of time tomorrow isoing people for long con interactions.

I’ll be hovering around the thread for the evening tonight, but no heavy lifting yet.

it’s kinda weird that you popped in to respond to a post calling you a scum read but lol idk if i actually believe this

I get why I would be a suspect in this game right now. There are certain things that are expected of me in games, and for the most part I have not delivered those things. But I urge people to look past those expectations of What Sloonei Normally Does, and focus instead on what I have done. I am town, and I believe that is borne out in my posts.

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:16 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:14 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:05 pm I'm back to thinking Martin is just town. I want to see more from Sloonei - if we set Thunal aside he's my strongest scumread.

I finally have a couple of days off, so I plan to spend a good chunk of time tomorrow isoing people for long con interactions.

I’ll be hovering around the thread for the evening tonight, but no heavy lifting yet.

it’s kinda weird that you popped in to respond to a post calling you a scum read but lol idk if i actually believe this

I was responding to “I want to see more from Sloonei.”

What is the point of this post? Does this response make me bad?

Okay. I think Thunal33 and Alison's differences or scum-reads on each other were kinda set-up to turn out this way after having early-game differences on play-style or perception.

I mean, I think the following quotes feel like a matter of play-style difference or differences in viewing the game (as a thing) of Forum Mafia differently, rather than a result of (possibly) having different alignments:

Here (in the quotes) where it seems to be key playstyle differences, or at least a difference in evaluation

It looks like a more.... "practical" or pragmatic evaluation of how FM should be played by them, or what they communicate. I would imagine that Thunal33 thinks "This goes without saying", in her mind

And here's how Alison perceives said pragmatic reads or statements. Since the feelings or tinfoils of "this could be faked" are left unsaid and Alison cannot see that, she thinks its weird or odd that it is missing and therefore does not fit her idea of a townie.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:28 am

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:10 am My issue isn't the read you're making. My issue is that you're like handing out reads left and right for stuff that (in my view) should be close to NAI, and I don't see evidence of the paranoia I'd expect to see from town there. There's a disparity between the substance of the read and the attitude you have towards it that I think can be plausibly explained by you having NAI on the subject of the read.

This isn't to say that townies can never be paranoid about their townreads early. But I think that kind of confidence comes either from a long history or extensive meta on the person, or because they saw something that they thought was really hard to fake. I don't think you believe that the observations you've made about me are at all hard to fake - which makes me question why the possibility I was faking didn't seem to factor into your analysis.

The possibility the person is faking always does come into my analysis, but it's not exactly good town strategy to hedge every single read I make by saying "This looks good, but they could be faking" or "I like these thoughts, but they could be faking them." It's kind of obvious that it's a possibility so I don't feel the need to actually state it.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:53 am

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:25 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:18 am Alison, could you describe the mafia-aligned motivations you suspect might underlie Thunal's actions?

It's less "mafia-aligned motivation" and more like, she's trying to make up reads (because mafia don't actually have reads, they know the alignments of everyone) so she just grasps at the first line of logic that comes to mind, and she doesn't bother questioning the logic because it's not a real read, it's made up.

This seems really nitpicky and completely untrue. Did you see that I did the same exact reading process in my town games? I assume you read my posts in Monster Hunter World when you repped in, and I gave an example of a townlean I made (for reasons that could be easily fakeable) on the 7th post in the entire game in another town game of mine. My reads are more about likelihood than anything. None of the townreads I have I'm certain about. But putting in a bunch of paranoia or saying something could be faked undermines the message I'm trying to make when I state a townread - that the person is more likely town than mafia.

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:46 am

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:32 am

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:16 am And all of the above isn't just limited to your read on me: there's also the townreads on SPF and Carotte for re-evaluating you. I checked your ISO; you've said that you've only ever spectated SPF, and since you didn't know who Carotte was I'm going to assume that you haven't played with her at all. What is it about their re-evaluations that makes you townread them? Because you said that it wasn't the way they went around re-evaluating you that made them townie (which is a standard read), but the fact that they re-evaluated at all, when they could have justified scumreading you. I think that is completely NAI. Scum has reason to white knight a player. They can't just push townies all the time. They also can't just lock in a read and let it stagnate forever, they have to fake some kind of progression or development on their mindset. So why is the fact that they did re-evaluate on you townie?

I'm not townreading Carotte. I think her reevaluation on me looked somewhat good and GTH I would say she's town instead of scum but my level of confidence there is very low. I don't really care what a "standard read" is, I have my own process for making them that might be different than site meta. Scum does have to fake progression but since I don't know Carotte I default to reading others' scum games based on my own and I know I don't reevaluate unless it fits my agenda, especially not early on like that.

It's not about site meta at all. My point is very simple, that it is completely illogical to assume that re-evaluation is townie when scum have multiple incentives to re-evaluate. You not taking those incentives into consideration smacks of TMI.

To be fair, Alison did have a point (in the directly above quote) about it being possibly NAI. However, Thunal33 has stated themselves that they are partially basing this on their own scum games rather than (for example) diving into Carotenoid's past scum games and trying to figure it out from there simply because they don't know Carotenoid. But I can see Thunal33 making a sort of "pragmatic" evaluation and leaving at it looking like town, because meta diving and trying to analyze a player like that, just make something that might be NAI into a confident AI statement, is a lot of work.

Obviously this summary or perspective is taking some assumptions on what Thunal33 and Alison actually think, but I think these assumptions are plausible.

Here's when it seems plausible that these differences could impact their future interactions:

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:19 am You're misrepping me. I literally never said I scumread you and I don't. I townread you early for making a lot of sense but from the POV that I'm town this push doesn't make a lot of sense. I never said I scumread you once, I said I don't townread you anymore and I'm not sure about you. I'm not giving everyone that townreads me town points since it's really easy for scum to fake a townread on me. It was the way SPF did it (having expectations for what will happen when she looks through my ISO and then changing her mind on both me and Martin from our ISOs) and to a lesser degree the way Carotte did it that makes me think their specific progressions were towny. No, I won't townread everyone who townreads me.

Look at the first couple pages of this game and look at the townleans I gave out: https://mafiacafe.boards.net/thread/105 ... ial?page=2

Hally can also vouch that I do this sort of reading style as any alignment and actually a little more often as town (as scum I tend to have a harder time transitioning from fluff to solving).

Given the above statement that is colored in the quote, isn't it natural that if a player perceives something they cannot understand they will start to scum-read it, or at least tinfoil their conflict as V/W?

I didn't find a similar quote as having the same thing from Alison though, she re-focused on other things such as her vote on Carotenoid and etc with various small tidbits about Thunal not being W/W with Carotenoid up until this interaction in the middle of D2:

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:40 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:21 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:22 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:33 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:12 pmJaggedJimmyJay do you object to Sloonei being the chop today?

At this point, no I don’t. I can poke holes in accusations rendered at Sloonei, but that doesn’t make him a civilian. I should be more secure about him than I am by now.

Does that mean you think he's suspicious because you're not secure about him or is that more a statement about Sloonei not doing enough for you to get a solid read on him?

More the latter.

As I sit back and roast on the game, I trend toward an Alison vote again. I respect her efforts to talk with me, and I don't think her posts are terrible or anything -- but my holistic vision of the game leads me to her in a mafia chair. I am a bit piqued recently too by what I perceive as awkward challenges she has given me, like it's almost competitive. If you're going to get me chopped you're going to have to do better than that. That doesn't strike me as the right mindset.

I definitely have been pinged by what I perceive as a lack of quality in her cases. As town she made a whole lot of sense and I can see her logical chains but here she makes statements like "Sloonei is making stuff up" without a clear process as to how she got there (she did explain it but I don't find it convincing). Her points against me seem shallow but I'm obviously biased, they also feel a bit like things she's doing imo. She finds it sus that my early reads are too confident yet makes very confident early reads herself. She doesn't like that I'm scumreading her for suspecting me yet suspects me in part because I was scumreading her. She also doesn't change her reads often in light of new evidence and has the same suspects she did early to mid D1 (me and Sloonei).

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:50 pm Hey all. I'm around but I see there's been like 10 notifications addressed to me and I'm not sure I have the time to address all of 'em. I'll be working my way through 'em slowly over the course of the day. I glanced at JJJ's POE chart - I'm a little curious why LC/Martin has high scum compatibility, and I'm surprised to see that I don't have orange compatibility with either tutuu or Martin given that I hard defended them.

Also Thunal is lying about what I said again. I'll quickly address that because it's easy.

She finds it sus that my early reads are too confident yet makes very confident early reads herself. She doesn't like that I'm scumreading her for suspecting me yet suspects me in part because I was scumreading her.

This is not true. I have repeatedly stated that I was not scumreading you for making confident reads; I was scumreading you for making shallow reads based on flimsy evidence. Every read of mine is backed by strong evidence; yours isn't, because you're making it up. I am also not scumreading you for scumreading me. I originally started scumreading you because you had a townread on me that I didn't like.

She also doesn't change her reads often in light of new evidence and has the same suspects she did early to mid D1 (me and Sloonei).

What has come to light over the course of the game that should make me change my list of suspects?

Doesn't this kind of, well, reek of TvT from playstyle differences? Don't the complaints seem similar or related to the examples (toward the top of this post) that started this mess?

My point is: If either of them were wolves then they wouldn't be stuck on the same playstyle differences or perceptions or whatever it is. I get the feeling that this would've gotten even worse and more quickly if one of them was a wolf.

posting to let u know i love the colors martin

I tried to make this as easy to understand as possible, but I honestly believe Thunal33 + Alison are TvT'ing.

I can't really put it into better words, but I hope the colors helped.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:20 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:16 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:14 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:05 pm I'm back to thinking Martin is just town. I want to see more from Sloonei - if we set Thunal aside he's my strongest scumread.

I finally have a couple of days off, so I plan to spend a good chunk of time tomorrow isoing people for long con interactions.

I’ll be hovering around the thread for the evening tonight, but no heavy lifting yet.

it’s kinda weird that you popped in to respond to a post calling you a scum read but lol idk if i actually believe this

I was responding to “I want to see more from Sloonei.”

What is the point of this post? Does this response make me bad?

no, hence the “lol idk if i actually believe this”

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:22 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:20 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:16 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:14 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:05 pm I'm back to thinking Martin is just town. I want to see more from Sloonei - if we set Thunal aside he's my strongest scumread.

I finally have a couple of days off, so I plan to spend a good chunk of time tomorrow isoing people for long con interactions.

I’ll be hovering around the thread for the evening tonight, but no heavy lifting yet.

it’s kinda weird that you popped in to respond to a post calling you a scum read but lol idk if i actually believe this

I was responding to “I want to see more from Sloonei.”

What is the point of this post? Does this response make me bad?

no, hence the “lol idk if i actually believe this”

Why would it have been bad/“weird”?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:24 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:22 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:20 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:16 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:14 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:05 pm I'm back to thinking Martin is just town. I want to see more from Sloonei - if we set Thunal aside he's my strongest scumread.

I finally have a couple of days off, so I plan to spend a good chunk of time tomorrow isoing people for long con interactions.

I’ll be hovering around the thread for the evening tonight, but no heavy lifting yet.

it’s kinda weird that you popped in to respond to a post calling you a scum read but lol idk if i actually believe this

I was responding to “I want to see more from Sloonei.”

What is the point of this post? Does this response make me bad?

no, hence the “lol idk if i actually believe this”

Why would it have been bad/“weird”?

idk it’s more like a meme scum tell that someone is scum if they pop in right after they were scum read/voted/mentioned etc. the “beetlejuice” tell. but i don’t think it’s actually a real tell. or like, there may be some truth in it but probably not a whole lot. i would say it’s akin to the coffee tell, but maybe even more meaningless tbh

how did nutella interact with long con?

the first page of nutella's iso contains no mentions of long con - save for one moment where she mentions that she doesn't like sloonei's hedge on lc

i sort of like nutella discrediting the "derp clear" townreads on long con on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676760#p676760. i don't think she'd be incentivized to discredit easy trs on her partner like that

the early exchange btwn nutella and lc on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677195#p677195 is a pretty decent look for nutella - i like that she isnt going out of her way to overplay her interactions with him. she is blunt and to the point, and that's how i imagine nutellatown would be likely to engage with lc when lc throws shade/questions at her. it does bother me a ~little~ bit that nutella chooses to gth townread lc a couple of posts later during jagged's exercise, but i can forgive that

the real meat of nutella's interactions with lc start at viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677377#p677377 - there is a real sense of frustration and indiginance in nutella's tone toward lc that it does not strike me as scum theatre. nutella seems genuinely baffled that long con decided to make those points against her, and i like that she immediately tries to steer the chop onto long con once she realizes that his push is not coming from a genuine place. again, i don't see what incentive nutella would have as scum to outright strongarm the chop onto her partner at a point when lc was not in serious contention to be killed

how did long con interact with nutella?

there are a number of posts early in long con's iso where he posits some filler/softball questions toward nutella - if anything, i see this as a good thing for nutella, because it feels like long con is partially finding his footing into the game by bouncing off of nutella's answers to him

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676684#p676684 is an especially notable post - i get the sense that long con felt genuinely uncomfortable w/the gamestate, and he threw shade on nutella here in some kind of attempt to open up the POE and instill paranoia - i do not find it likely that he throws this type of shade on his partner early on in the game, especially in a position where she was being universally townread

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677162#p677162 and viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677366#p677366 are both very good looks for nutella - i find it unlikely that long con chooses to put so much focus on his partner, especially in the context of him desperately trying to paint nutella as a viable chop candidate. it does make sense for long con to be doing this if nutella is town and he's worried about her position in the game, though

conclusion: there are a number of interactions btwn nutella and long con that look very good for nutella, and the only real gripes i have about nutella's approach to long con are nitpicky at best. this analysis makes me feel more confident that nutella is town, and that we don't live in a world where lc/nutella bussed

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:30 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:24 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:22 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:20 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:16 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:14 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:05 pm I'm back to thinking Martin is just town. I want to see more from Sloonei - if we set Thunal aside he's my strongest scumread.

I finally have a couple of days off, so I plan to spend a good chunk of time tomorrow isoing people for long con interactions.

I’ll be hovering around the thread for the evening tonight, but no heavy lifting yet.

it’s kinda weird that you popped in to respond to a post calling you a scum read but lol idk if i actually believe this

I was responding to “I want to see more from Sloonei.”

What is the point of this post? Does this response make me bad?

no, hence the “lol idk if i actually believe this”

Why would it have been bad/“weird”?

idk it’s more like a meme scum tell that someone is scum if they pop in right after they were scum read/voted/mentioned etc. the “beetlejuice” tell. but i don’t think it’s actually a real tell. or like, there may be some truth in it but probably not a whole lot. i would say it’s akin to the coffee tell, but maybe even more meaningless tbh

People have been scum reading me on every page of this game, it seems.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:21 pm Okay. I think Thunal33 and Alison's differences or scum-reads on each other were kinda set-up to turn out this way after having early-game differences on play-style or perception.

Oh yeah I forgot to

[mention]Alison[/mention]
[mention]Thunal33[/mention]

See the big post that I quoted here. Use the arrow in the quote to jump to it.

Tl;dr

You guys are TvT in my opinion, as much as I hate to say that I think your guys scum-reads on each other are wrong in the sense that neither of you two are scum even if some of the points exchanged between you two were valid. However, those valid reasons stemmed in part from key differences in viewpoints or playstyles of Forum Mafia and (in some cases) what constitutes as townie. If either of you two were wolves I think reasons not stemming from these key differences would have become apparent and maybe even these scum-reads appear sooner than they did. Or at least, I don't feel like there's any wolves in that conflict.