The Syndicate

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:27 pm

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:18 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:04 am This post is mainly for reference (mine if no one else’s):

With just a few minutes left, MP7 & Nute created a 4/4/4 split:

MR – DDL, speed, Hyena, Nook
Nook – LC, sig, 112, nutella
Sig – juliets, TSP, Jack, MP7

(To the best of my knowledge those votes are in chronological order too.)

Wait a sec. I forgot about Nook's wagon. Sig and 112 flipped town. If Nook is town, then at least one of Nute and LC are probably scum. Unless, somehow the wagon is pure?

I think the wagon is pure. Why do you think it can't be?

Actually, I don't know why it couldn't be. Radish was on an off wagon. Radish was the leading wagon. If there are three mafia, both other mafia might have been forced to go for Sig knowing Nanook would self-prez. Thus, maybe it's more likely than I think.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:29 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:27 pm

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:18 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:04 am This post is mainly for reference (mine if no one else’s):

With just a few minutes left, MP7 & Nute created a 4/4/4 split:

MR – DDL, speed, Hyena, Nook
Nook – LC, sig, 112, nutella
Sig – juliets, TSP, Jack, MP7

(To the best of my knowledge those votes are in chronological order too.)

Wait a sec. I forgot about Nook's wagon. Sig and 112 flipped town. If Nook is town, then at least one of Nute and LC are probably scum. Unless, somehow the wagon is pure?

I think the wagon is pure. Why do you think it can't be?

If it is, and the MR wagon is also pure, then EVERY SINGLE ACTIVE SCUM (minus MR) jumped on sig. Do you think that likely? (I've actually realized a possible answer but want to see your response)

Oops. Too late. :<

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:26 pm

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:24 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Sun Apr 19, 2020 5:56 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Apr 19, 2020 5:26 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:36 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 19, 2020 2:52 pm

112 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 19, 2020 8:57 am

What if I'm not actually suspecting you, am mafia, and just FoSed you in order to score townpoints? You're just assuming I'm town, which is exactly what I want in the proverbial world where I'm scum.

Oh my god this is amazing, I am on this.

[VOTE: Master Radishes] aubergine

This is probably the best point against MR.

@Master Radishes what do you have to say about this? Were you assuming 112 is town, and if so do you have good reason for that?

This argument is always always flawed. Yes, scum does it, but town does most of the time too. Paranoia is a good town tell, but the lack of it post by post isn’t a good scum tell.

Tony, I have read this like five times and I'm too dense to understand it. What is the "it" that scum does and town does most of the time too?

This is the second instance that has Jules responding to a post that either has a vote in it or has quoted a vote in it. Radish, as we know, flipped mafia.

Can you explain that thought again? I don't know what you're talking about.

I thought that maybe, if you were scum with Radish and MP7, you were only responding to votes that were on your teammates, and no other votes.

hyena you butt, you ruined it

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:31 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:26 pm

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:24 pm

juliets wrote: ↑Sun Apr 19, 2020 5:56 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Apr 19, 2020 5:26 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:36 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 19, 2020 2:52 pm

Oh my god this is amazing, I am on this.

[VOTE: Master Radishes] aubergine

This is probably the best point against MR.

@Master Radishes what do you have to say about this? Were you assuming 112 is town, and if so do you have good reason for that?

This argument is always always flawed. Yes, scum does it, but town does most of the time too. Paranoia is a good town tell, but the lack of it post by post isn’t a good scum tell.

Tony, I have read this like five times and I'm too dense to understand it. What is the "it" that scum does and town does most of the time too?

This is the second instance that has Jules responding to a post that either has a vote in it or has quoted a vote in it. Radish, as we know, flipped mafia.

Can you explain that thought again? I don't know what you're talking about.

I thought that maybe, if you were scum with Radish and MP7, you were only responding to votes that were on your teammates, and no other votes.

Oh I see. Well, it's not the case.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:32 pm hyena you butt, you ruined it

I know, lol. Your question beat my answer. Sorry about that. Glad we're on the same page, at least.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:29 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:27 pm

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:18 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:04 am This post is mainly for reference (mine if no one else’s):

With just a few minutes left, MP7 & Nute created a 4/4/4 split:

MR – DDL, speed, Hyena, Nook
Nook – LC, sig, 112, nutella
Sig – juliets, TSP, Jack, MP7

(To the best of my knowledge those votes are in chronological order too.)

Wait a sec. I forgot about Nook's wagon. Sig and 112 flipped town. If Nook is town, then at least one of Nute and LC are probably scum. Unless, somehow the wagon is pure?

I think the wagon is pure. Why do you think it can't be?

If it is, and the MR wagon is also pure, then EVERY SINGLE ACTIVE SCUM (minus MR) jumped on sig. Do you think that likely? (I've actually realized a possible answer but want to see your response)

I mean if we're assuming a scum team of 3 that's only 2 people, or 1 if 1 is inactive. Why is that so outlandish?

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:30 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:27 pm

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:18 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:04 am This post is mainly for reference (mine if no one else’s):

With just a few minutes left, MP7 & Nute created a 4/4/4 split:

MR – DDL, speed, Hyena, Nook
Nook – LC, sig, 112, nutella
Sig – juliets, TSP, Jack, MP7

(To the best of my knowledge those votes are in chronological order too.)

Wait a sec. I forgot about Nook's wagon. Sig and 112 flipped town. If Nook is town, then at least one of Nute and LC are probably scum. Unless, somehow the wagon is pure?

I think the wagon is pure. Why do you think it can't be?

Actually, I don't know why it couldn't be. Radish was on an off wagon. Radish was the leading wagon. If there are three mafia, both other mafia might have been forced to go for Sig knowing Nanook would self-prez. Thus, maybe it's more likely than I think.

Yeah. I think it makes sense.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:32 pm hyena you butt, you ruined it

It's ok I responded before I saw his post anyway :P

Alright, we're about an hour out from end of day and I still need to submit a secret vote. Are we still agreeing to someone for that, or are we all doing our own thing?

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:53 pm Alright, we're about an hour out from end of day and I still need to submit a secret vote. Are we still agreeing to someone for that, or are we all doing our own thing?

Close to two hours actually.

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:53 pm Alright, we're about an hour out from end of day and I still need to submit a secret vote. Are we still agreeing to someone for that, or are we all doing our own thing?

I think it would be less likely to be manipulated by scum if everyone or most people agree.

I am still okay with going for Sloonei with the secret vote even if doesn't feel as ideal as it did before. Probably still the optimal choice

Also I'm less worried about that since there are presumably only two mafia left, but still best to decrease our chances of hitting town however much we can

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:53 pm Alright, we're about an hour out from end of day and I still need to submit a secret vote. Are we still agreeing to someone for that, or are we all doing our own thing?

I keep coming back to wanting to flip both Jules and Nute (sorry, you two ;-;). I believe there's a wolf in those two, and in the event that I'm wrong, it would be nice knowing that we're not on the right track.

Trustfall

Sloonei - He might not want to replace out considering the shape his team is in if he’s scum.

Wilgy - Maybe he didn’t know MR was dead cause he’s town.

MP - He’ll probably post a lot?

Juliets - The main push against her is coming from Nutella, who is likely scum.

I find my reason not to vote Slooneichan most convincing, then Juliets, then Wilgy with MP last.

Reverse trustfall

Sloonei - Nothing

Juliets - Her vote helped save MR.

MP - His interactions with Nutella are bad and his vote helped save MR.

Wilgy - Nothing



So I’m least inclined to lynch Sloonei of the four potential secret votes.

I’m still on board the sloonei train. I am pretty confident that sloonei replaces out or stays in based entirely on whether they have time to play, not dependent on their alignment.

Basically we have to resolve that slot now or treat it as confirmed town. I have enough TRs that I’d rather resolve it.

Also, secret votes can’t be split. If it’s a difference of 2-3 votes scum may be able to decide it with their votes, unless they’re just totally absent...but I don’t really want to bet on that since we don’t have to

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:01 pm I’m still on board the sloonei train. I am pretty confident that sloonei replaces out or stays in based entirely on whether they have time to play, not dependent on their alignment.

Basically we have to resolve that slot now or treat it as confirmed town. I have enough TRs that I’d rather resolve it.

Yeah, I feel this.

It's an entirely naked slot at worst.

If you want to lynch Sloonei, convince me Juliets and MP are town. Cause I kinda think there has to be a wolf on the Sig wagon.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:57 pm

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:53 pm Alright, we're about an hour out from end of day and I still need to submit a secret vote. Are we still agreeing to someone for that, or are we all doing our own thing?

Close to two hours actually.

Oh, I just assumed we were ending the day at 10pm EST again, lol. Fair enough.

juliets wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:58 pm

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:53 pm Alright, we're about an hour out from end of day and I still need to submit a secret vote. Are we still agreeing to someone for that, or are we all doing our own thing?

I think it would be less likely to be manipulated by scum if everyone or most people agree.

That's fair.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:58 pm I am still okay with going for Sloonei with the secret vote even if doesn't feel as ideal as it did before. Probably still the optimal choice

Ehhhh. I'm not really feeling it right now, honestly. If one of you or Juliets flips town and the other doesn't flip at all, I'm always going to suspect the other until they flip. I'd rather just get it over with and resolve you two now rather than later.

Jack, why am I not included in the trust fall? And why are you basically assuming I am scum as part of your reasons for reading other players? You're really being uncharitable and closed-minded about this imo.

Who did nutella vote for again? Sig or me?

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:01 pm I’m still on board the sloonei train. I am pretty confident that sloonei replaces out or stays in based entirely on whether they have time to play, not dependent on their alignment.

Basically we have to resolve that slot now or treat it as confirmed town. I have enough TRs that I’d rather resolve it.

I agree with this.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:04 pm Who did nutella vote for again? Sig or me?

I voted for you.

A last minute vote to cause a 4 way tie while I’m online was functionally a vote for Sig.

Sorry, a 3 way tie

I do actually think a juliets-MP world is plausible. MP appeared willing to tag along with me on juliets, but somehow Nanook's desire to lynch Speed convinced him to move his vote to Speed and he really had no explanation why.

Nutella’s vote may have said nanook, but it was functionally for Sig

[VOTE: MP] aubergine LET IT RAND!

(Please don't actually let it rand)

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:06 pm A last minute vote to cause a 4 way tie while I’m online was functionally a vote for Sig.

I don't think I fully processed at the time that you would move your vote to self-pres / I wasn't paying attention to where your vote was and that it would break the tie. It all happened really fast and I thought someone else like Hyena would be the deciding vote after MP and I made the tie.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:04 pm Jack, why am I not included in the trust fall? And why are you basically assuming I am scum as part of your reasons for reading other players? You're really being uncharitable and closed-minded about this imo.

Because I strongly suspect you and anticipate you being publicly lynched.

I need to help decide on the secret vote. We're not voting you secretly.

We have 3 people I want to lynch and only 2 votes

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:08 pm Nutella’s vote may have said nanook, but it was functionally for Sig

I would have slightly preferred you got lynched over sig at the time. I wasn't really thinking or processing enough to realize that sig was going to be in the lead anyway. I just voted for the one of the three that I had the least townread of at the time

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:08 pm I do actually think a juliets-MP world is plausible. MP appeared willing to tag along with me on juliets, but somehow Nanook's desire to lynch Speed convinced him to move his vote to Speed and he really had no explanation why.

I am not scum teammates with MP, or anyone else.

Let's look at Juliets, MP, and nutella from a practical perspective. If we were to lynch two of them, which would give us the best path forward?

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:10 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:06 pm A last minute vote to cause a 4 way tie while I’m online was functionally a vote for Sig.

I don't think I fully processed at the time that you would move your vote to self-pres / I wasn't paying attention to where your vote was and that it would break the tie. It all happened really fast and I thought someone else like Hyena would be the deciding vote after MP and I made the tie.

Nah, I was never moving. :P As I've said, I thought Sig's wagon grew too fast to be scum, and I didn't want to vote Nanook.

We're not having public ties when we don't have private consensus. Somebody make an argument for taking someone off or on the chopping board.

I've made the argument for taking Sloonei off. If you don't like it, argue with me. We're not splitting the private vote and letting wolves choose the private vote.

If we can't decide between Nutella and MP publically, let's lynch one privately and consolidate on the other.

Lynching Juliets and nutella is just... I know they aren't scum together. I'd rather gamble one side or the other.
Same for MP and nutella. I don't think they're scum together, though I like this option better.

While Juliets and MP could be scum together AFAIK, I don't know if I want to leave nutella out of it.

Hence why I'm considering going after Sloonei with the secret vote, killing only one of the 3, and approaching with more info.
Your thoughts, Jack?

I already privately voted MP.

Now we have to lynch him and Nutella.

#strategy

I agree with most of your reads Jack.

But I also agree with nutella. You bein real stubborn today. Guess that's near-townfirm lyfe.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:13 pm Let's look at Juliets, MP, and nutella from a practical perspective. If we were to lynch two of them, which would give us the best path forward?

The worst case scenario would be two town flips, right? Which two town flips do you think would give us the most information?

I would be satisfied with juliets and MP being the two (if we choose not to go for sloonei)

If Jack really did already send a vote for MP, I support MP being the secret vote and for the public poll forming competing wagons on juliets and myself.

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:18 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:13 pm Let's look at Juliets, MP, and nutella from a practical perspective. If we were to lynch two of them, which would give us the best path forward?

The worst case scenario would be two town flips, right? Which two town flips do you think would give us the most information?

*cringe*

Yeah I don't really like looking at it from that perspective. I don't want to strategize over 'but what if we're completely wrong and dumb'

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:20 pm If Jack really did already send a vote for MP, I support MP being the secret vote and for the public poll forming competing wagons on juliets and myself.

Let's do it. Anyone else in for this?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:17 pm I already privately voted MP.

Now we have to lynch him and Nutella.

Spoiler: show

lol

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:20 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:20 pm If Jack really did already send a vote for MP, I support MP being the secret vote and for the public poll forming competing wagons on juliets and myself.

Let's do it. Anyone else in for this?

I'm up for this.