Re: U-Pick Mafia Vol 1 - Night 1
Posted: Sun May 20, 2018 1:05 am
Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
I have had a hard time articulating this point, I tried earlier and failed, so thank you.Golden wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:03 amThis is the other thing I'd say. I'd actually be more inclined to option 6 later in the game. The raw probability of a successful lynch is more likely to improve in the civilians favour later. If this option came along when we actually had a pool of decently agreed suspects, it might be worth the risk. As it stands, we don't have a strong enough collective view on who the suspects are to rely on that.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 12:57 amOne can also say to be fair that the increased time frame adjusts the raw probability further in an ideal world, to some unknowable degree.
LOLcolonialbob wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:05 amSloonei wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 12:59 amHow do I make a video on the page ?
thanks.Spoiler: show
This demands that the civilians make no effort to consolidate into three wagons -- we may not always agree on everything, but the opportunity to kill three people allows for disparate opinions to work in unison. The higher the single-player tallies get, the harder it is for mafia members to handpick their lynches (something I still believe can be identified by a dedicated civilian who is literally looking for that). 4-4-4-1-1-1-1-1-1 is hard to manipulate. 5-5-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 is easier to manipulate, but still difficult (and it demands a bold standout move). 4-3-3-2-2-2-1-1-1 would be easy to manipulate and also represent a failure of the civilians to work together -- is that what you'd anticipate?Golden wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:01 am It's not. Controlling a lynch is town-leaning, if the town controls it. If the mafia controls a lynch, it's mafia-leaning. I would say a triple lynch could be at best vaguely similar to a double lynch and a mafia vig shot. At worst (and in my opinion most likely), it's like having your normal lynch and giving each mafia team a vig shot.
I would not take that vote. I don't understand this though, because the mafia have to split their votes in three just the same. Any manipulative capacity owned by a mafioso is also owned by a civilian bearing a suspicion.
I've never had any difficulty dancing around my voting decisions.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:01 amI believe that is as plausible as any other strategic vote in any lynch. I don't understand why this is different. There are three wagons that die instead of one. Everyone who votes in those wagons (or doesn't) is responsible for what they've done and open to questioning accordingly.Golden wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 12:55 amWhy would they need to do that? I doubt they'd have to block vote.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 12:31 am If the mafia teams just try to combine their votes to ensure command of #2 or #3 spot without regard for their actual suspicions (or the suspicions being promoted by civilians), then... that should be something we can see, right?
Look at the day one poll. Third place got 2 votes. There were lots of them. Is it really hard to drop one vote at a timely point to ensure someone gets to three that isn't on your team, without it being obvious?
Do you not believe in your own skill to do this if you're bad? I fully believe in mine.
In this case, the potential to evade a lynch of one's own teammate requires dancing around three wagons instead of just one.
read her case on Colin EoD, should be recent in her iso. I felt it was good thought process.Scotty wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:08 am I’m on page 40 but at face value I’m seeing Golden Brit buddied by Quin. Either they both found some extra gel behind each other’s ear or they’re just really in tune about nutella.
I still hve yet to read half of day 1, but from what I remember in the beginning, I was liking nutella’s Instigative attitude, gettin in people’s business. “Got any examples, Scottzilla?” NoZ sir, that would require me to go back and reread and holy fuck does that sound exhausting. I’m here to have fun
no man, golden's bad too.Scotty wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:08 am I’m on page 40 but at face value I’m seeing Golden Brit buddied by Quin. Either they both found some extra gel behind each other’s ear or they’re just really in tune about nutella.
I still hve yet to read half of day 1, but from what I remember in the beginning, I was liking nutella’s Instigative attitude, gettin in people’s business. “Got any examples, Scottzilla?” NoZ sir, that would require me to go back and reread and holy fuck does that sound exhausting. I’m here to have fun
No they don't. Why would they have to? They can easily just use their influence in the lesser votes if they need to, mostly avoiding the highest lynch. Or be in the highest lynch if there is noone they particularly need to save. There isn't the same need to dilute their votes at all.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:09 amI don't understand this though, because the mafia have to split their votes in three just the same. Any manipulative capacity owned by a mafioso is also owned by a civilian bearing a suspicion.
I haven't really noticed quin this game so if he's buddying me he's shit at it.Scotty wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:08 am I’m on page 40 but at face value I’m seeing Golden Brit buddied by Quin. Either they both found some extra gel behind each other’s ear or they’re just really in tune about nutella.
I still hve yet to read half of day 1, but from what I remember in the beginning, I was liking nutella’s Instigative attitude, gettin in people’s business. “Got any examples, Scottzilla?” NoZ sir, that would require me to go back and reread and holy fuck does that sound exhausting. I’m here to have fun
Why are you picking objectively the worst poll option?Quin wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:10 amno man, golden's bad too.Scotty wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:08 am I’m on page 40 but at face value I’m seeing Golden Brit buddied by Quin. Either they both found some extra gel behind each other’s ear or they’re just really in tune about nutella.
I still hve yet to read half of day 1, but from what I remember in the beginning, I was liking nutella’s Instigative attitude, gettin in people’s business. “Got any examples, Scottzilla?” NoZ sir, that would require me to go back and reread and holy fuck does that sound exhausting. I’m here to have fun
Too bad once you vote it you can't switch away.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:13 am I will move my vote to #3 temporarily and allow everyone else to discuss the matter. There is a lot of time left to make the call. If I have to vote right now and the night ends, I vote #6.
I DO NOT ENDORSE #3. #3 IS A HEINOUS CRIME AGAINST ALL CIVILIANS, AND QUIN LOOKS AWFUL FOR VOTING IT.
Because I am objectively the worst.colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:13 amWhy are you picking objectively the worst poll option?Quin wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:10 amno man, golden's bad too.Scotty wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:08 am I’m on page 40 but at face value I’m seeing Golden Brit buddied by Quin. Either they both found some extra gel behind each other’s ear or they’re just really in tune about nutella.
I still hve yet to read half of day 1, but from what I remember in the beginning, I was liking nutella’s Instigative attitude, gettin in people’s business. “Got any examples, Scottzilla?” NoZ sir, that would require me to go back and reread and holy fuck does that sound exhausting. I’m here to have fun
And i don't mean the option that most favors mafia, I mean unchangeable votes are terrible and should be forever banned
They do favor mafia tho
Your option is bad and you should feel badScotty wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:13 am Wait, Golden, you’re votig for the “pick 8 rando’s for tomorrow’s lynch” and yet you’re critical of the option that gives us more town power to choose the most suspicious tomorrow?
That’s Silver, at best.
Putting Day phases in the power of RNG and decrying our ability to pick candidates is hypocritical, dontcha think? Or maybe you explained your reasoning better and I’m just harping on old news. I dunno
I mean, when you say it in caps it just sounds mean.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:13 am I will move my vote to #3 temporarily and allow everyone else to discuss the matter. There is a lot of time left to make the call. If I have to vote right now and the night ends, I vote #6.
I DO NOT ENDORSE #3. #3 IS A HEINOUS CRIME AGAINST ALL CIVILIANS, AND QUIN LOOKS AWFUL FOR VOTING IT.
Why did you vote for it though?Quin wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:15 amI mean, when you say it in caps it just sounds mean.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:13 am I will move my vote to #3 temporarily and allow everyone else to discuss the matter. There is a lot of time left to make the call. If I have to vote right now and the night ends, I vote #6.
I DO NOT ENDORSE #3. #3 IS A HEINOUS CRIME AGAINST ALL CIVILIANS, AND QUIN LOOKS AWFUL FOR VOTING IT.
Dunno. Still haven't figured it out myself.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:16 amWhy did you vote for it though?Quin wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:15 amI mean, when you say it in caps it just sounds mean.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:13 am I will move my vote to #3 temporarily and allow everyone else to discuss the matter. There is a lot of time left to make the call. If I have to vote right now and the night ends, I vote #6.
I DO NOT ENDORSE #3. #3 IS A HEINOUS CRIME AGAINST ALL CIVILIANS, AND QUIN LOOKS AWFUL FOR VOTING IT.
Yes, that is what I'd anticipate. You can't win - coalesce too early and actually your just asking for loud voices to choose the targets before too many people have a say, because you're forced to stick with the three you've got. I mean, it's actually sort of option 3 by another name, you may as well have non-changeable votes. Don't coalesce early and it's easy to manipulate late. I think you'd agree that generally speaking building an early consensus and not deviating from it is something that works in the favour of the mafia.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:09 amThis demands that the civilians make no effort to consolidate into three wagons -- we may not always agree on everything, but the opportunity to kill three people allows for disparate opinions to work in unison. The higher the single-player tallies get, the harder it is for mafia members to handpick their lynches (something I still believe can be identified by a dedicated civilian who is literally looking for that). 4-4-4-1-1-1-1-1-1 is hard to manipulate. 5-5-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 is easier to manipulate, but still difficult (and it demands a bold standout move). 4-3-3-2-2-2-1-1-1 would be easy to manipulate and also represent a failure of the civilians to work together -- is that what you'd anticipate?Golden wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:01 am It's not. Controlling a lynch is town-leaning, if the town controls it. If the mafia controls a lynch, it's mafia-leaning. I would say a triple lynch could be at best vaguely similar to a double lynch and a mafia vig shot. At worst (and in my opinion most likely), it's like having your normal lynch and giving each mafia team a vig shot.
YOU KIDS THESE DAYS ARE TOO SENSITIVEQuin wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:15 amI mean, when you say it in caps it just sounds mean.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:13 am I will move my vote to #3 temporarily and allow everyone else to discuss the matter. There is a lot of time left to make the call. If I have to vote right now and the night ends, I vote #6.
I DO NOT ENDORSE #3. #3 IS A HEINOUS CRIME AGAINST ALL CIVILIANS, AND QUIN LOOKS AWFUL FOR VOTING IT.
OH MY GOD GRANDMA SHUT UPSloonei wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:19 amYOU KIDS THESE DAYS ARE TOO SENSITIVEQuin wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:15 amI mean, when you say it in caps it just sounds mean.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:13 am I will move my vote to #3 temporarily and allow everyone else to discuss the matter. There is a lot of time left to make the call. If I have to vote right now and the night ends, I vote #6.
I DO NOT ENDORSE #3. #3 IS A HEINOUS CRIME AGAINST ALL CIVILIANS, AND QUIN LOOKS AWFUL FOR VOTING IT.
MORE VOTES = MORE ACTION, SONNY!JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:22 am ColinIsCool, Jackofhearts2005, Sloonei
What is your rationale for #1?
The only one up there I actually like apart from #6 is #2. I think that one offers a tiny benefit of creating a temporarily manageable POE (and also threatens to narrow thread-wide focus for an entire day, so it's not perfect).
I genuinely think number 2 is a pretty decent town tool right now, with a downside risk of extremely bad luck in randomisation. I think a narrowed focus is a good thing early in a game with 30 players... provided the focus is widened again afterwards.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:22 am @ColinIsCool, @Jackofhearts2005, @Sloonei
What is your rationale for #1?
The only one up there I actually like apart from #6 is #2. I think that one offers a tiny benefit of creating a temporarily manageable POE (and also threatens to narrow thread-wide focus for an entire day, so it's not perfect).
I would argue threadwide focus is inevitably narrowed anyway with 31 players, else it's fragmented beyond usefulness. A random selection promises to be more interesting than continuing to argue about the people who post the most, no offense intended to any of youJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:22 am ColinIsCool, Jackofhearts2005, Sloonei
What is your rationale for #1?
The only one up there I actually like apart from #6 is #2. I think that one offers a tiny benefit of creating a temporarily manageable POE (and also threatens to narrow thread-wide focus for an entire day, so it's not perfect).
RESPEKT YOUR ELDERS YOUNG MANQuin wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:19 amOH MY GOD GRANDMA SHUT UPSloonei wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:19 amYOU KIDS THESE DAYS ARE TOO SENSITIVEQuin wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:15 amI mean, when you say it in caps it just sounds mean.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:13 am I will move my vote to #3 temporarily and allow everyone else to discuss the matter. There is a lot of time left to make the call. If I have to vote right now and the night ends, I vote #6.
I DO NOT ENDORSE #3. #3 IS A HEINOUS CRIME AGAINST ALL CIVILIANS, AND QUIN LOOKS AWFUL FOR VOTING IT.
colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:14 amYour option is bad and you should feel badScotty wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:13 am Wait, Golden, you’re votig for the “pick 8 rando’s for tomorrow’s lynch” and yet you’re critical of the option that gives us more town power to choose the most suspicious tomorrow?
That’s Silver, at best.
Putting Day phases in the power of RNG and decrying our ability to pick candidates is hypocritical, dontcha think? Or maybe you explained your reasoning better and I’m just harping on old news. I dunno
I would say no.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:28 am Question for the thread: is failing to vote in a lynch, and other forms of inactivity, alignment indicative per your view? Consider your own playstyle as scum. I’m not sure.
NoColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:28 am Question for the thread: is failing to vote in a lynch, and other forms of inactivity, alignment indicative per your view? Consider your own playstyle as scum. I’m not sure.
A reminder, we're virtually guaranteed at least one mafioso in the random 8, and very likely we'll have at least 2.Golden wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:27 amI genuinely think number 2 is a pretty decent town tool right now, with a downside risk of extremely bad luck in randomisation. I think a narrowed focus is a good thing early in a game with 30 players... provided the focus is widened again afterwards.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:22 am ColinIsCool, Jackofhearts2005, Sloonei
What is your rationale for #1?
The only one up there I actually like apart from #6 is #2. I think that one offers a tiny benefit of creating a temporarily manageable POE (and also threatens to narrow thread-wide focus for an entire day, so it's not perfect).
They do favour mafia.colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:13 amWhy are you picking objectively the worst poll option?Quin wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:10 amno man, golden's bad too.Scotty wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:08 am I’m on page 40 but at face value I’m seeing Golden Brit buddied by Quin. Either they both found some extra gel behind each other’s ear or they’re just really in tune about nutella.
I still hve yet to read half of day 1, but from what I remember in the beginning, I was liking nutella’s Instigative attitude, gettin in people’s business. “Got any examples, Scottzilla?” NoZ sir, that would require me to go back and reread and holy fuck does that sound exhausting. I’m here to have fun
And i don't mean the option that most favors mafia, I mean unchangeable votes are terrible and should be forever banned
They do favor mafia tho
In a regular game, perhaps. In this glorious monstrosity? No.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:28 am Question for the thread: is failing to vote in a lynch, and other forms of inactivity, alignment indicative per your view? Consider your own playstyle as scum. I’m not sure.
I disagree about golden. Commenting about the abject suspiciousness of someone choosing option 6 is one thing, and condemning those that do is an easy way to throw blame.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:18 am I am getting a lot of town points for Golden in his posts tonight. Not that a scum could not be against 6, but the particular justification that it is a “wet dream” makes a lot of sense to me. It makes me think I should check out the argument with dunya again.
Aside from nutella, I’m reiterating that I don’t like the people who slid onto 6, in my opinion a great slot for scum, without initially commenting. That would be wolbre, Spacedaisy and speed.
YesColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:31 am I kinda just think that scum would be careful enough to not not-vote and risk repercussions. But I know that’s dangerous.
Wha huh?? Can you please do the math for me? How many mafia do you think is on each team?colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:32 amA reminder, we're virtually guaranteed at least one mafioso in the random 8, and very likely we'll have at least 2.Golden wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:27 amI genuinely think number 2 is a pretty decent town tool right now, with a downside risk of extremely bad luck in randomisation. I think a narrowed focus is a good thing early in a game with 30 players... provided the focus is widened again afterwards.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:22 am ColinIsCool, Jackofhearts2005, Sloonei
What is your rationale for #1?
The only one up there I actually like apart from #6 is #2. I think that one offers a tiny benefit of creating a temporarily manageable POE (and also threatens to narrow thread-wide focus for an entire day, so it's not perfect).
(Well, assuming what I feel to be reasonably sized mafia teams)
I mean, to be fair, I think option 6 is actively mafia-favouring, but with the other 5 I could live with any of them. I mostly picked the one that I think would enable me to best scum hunt. I'm never looking at more than about 8 people at this point in such a large game anyway. May as well have RNG choose the 8.Scotty wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:13 am Wait, Golden, you’re votig for the “pick 8 rando’s for tomorrow’s lynch” and yet you’re critical of the option that gives us more town power to choose the most suspicious tomorrow?
That’s Silver, at best.
Putting Day phases in the power of RNG and decrying our ability to pick candidates is hypocritical, dontcha think? Or maybe you explained your reasoning better and I’m just harping on old news. I dunno
Balance would suggest 5, but 4 is possible, and then anything is possible given Mac promised nothing about balance.Scotty wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:35 amWha huh?? Can you please do the math for me? How many mafia do you think is on each team?colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:32 amA reminder, we're virtually guaranteed at least one mafioso in the random 8, and very likely we'll have at least 2.Golden wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:27 amI genuinely think number 2 is a pretty decent town tool right now, with a downside risk of extremely bad luck in randomisation. I think a narrowed focus is a good thing early in a game with 30 players... provided the focus is widened again afterwards.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:22 am ColinIsCool, Jackofhearts2005, Sloonei
What is your rationale for #1?
The only one up there I actually like apart from #6 is #2. I think that one offers a tiny benefit of creating a temporarily manageable POE (and also threatens to narrow thread-wide focus for an entire day, so it's not perfect).
(Well, assuming what I feel to be reasonably sized mafia teams)