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Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 5:02 am
by pyxxy
D1 VCA, as I like to do colors
Spoiler: show
leetic (1) - Voters: pyxxy
robyn (8*) - Voters: leetic, Ranmilia, Dyslexicon, MacDougall, Gira, TonyStarkPrime, WindwardAway, tedxtr
tedxtr (2) - Voters: RondoDimBuckle, ☆Princess Abigail☆
No vote / Unvote (2) - Voters: robyn, Bereft

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 5:13 am
by pyxxy
stealing a page from the leetic playbook

robyn
5
36%
Voters: Ranmilia, WindwardAway, Dyslexicon, Gira, MacDougall

_must_ be impure

and if I had to pick one it would be dizzy (I have no concerns about gira atm but clearly I'm not seeing something that other people are)

so [VOTE: dizzy] aubergine for the time being

might be gone for a while fun day planned tomorrow, watching

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 5:28 am
by Ranmilia
I mean. I don't disagree on dizzy but I don't get why people make these wagon purity reads. We're on day 2 with flips, why is this something you believe has weight?

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 5:30 am
by Ranmilia
Perhaps that is harsh. I apologize.

Re: Severance [Evening One]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 5:33 am
by pyxxy
@ran I'm mostly just doing a callback to this post pre-flipping robyn
leetic wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 6:04 pm
WindwardAway wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 6:03 pm
leetic wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 6:02 pm
leetic wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2023 6:01 pm 8/13 people are on the robyn wagon. The chances of that being pure are pretty low.
Although one bus and one being on tedxtr makes enough sense in a w!robyn world
Would that still hold true if both of them turn out to be wolves?
Well, in that case tedxtr would be the bus vote. This is just an average scenario, though.
playful recreation

and I want to position myself this way for certain reasons

no offense taken no harshness absorbed

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 5:35 am
by pyxxy
I like that you don't like it, though

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 5:46 am
by WindwardAway
Ranmilia wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:46 pm
WindwardAway wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:22 pm
Ranmilia wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:20 pm I have. Feelings about Robyn but. They are probably not helpful. Regardless we move on. Robyn if you can see this thread I hope you are well.

So.

Rondo, Bereft, TSP, Dizzy all look abysmal to me here. I would like anyone who strongly townreads any of these players to tell me why.
I wrote updated thoughts about Rondo a few posts above, if you want my input
Noted. I disagree with robyn partnership being the main thrust of suspicion though, the main suspicion in my eyes is general wolfyness and lack of solving - that he hadn't and still hasn't Done anything in the game to help town beyond fluff and bluster and easy votes. I gave that a pass yesterday but one of my criteria for him was "he's charging at mac so let mac decide" and mac decided wolfy.

Regardless of his rep, Mac doesn't die if ALL his major suspicions are wrong and the four I listed were his suspects.

(Well three and Bereft, but he also scumread Bereft on first look and flipped around when he was scumreading Robyn, who godscumread Bereft, and we now know Robyn was town so.)

TSP also pinged mac's general scumdar, and before the whole mac robyn thing, we were going on bereft, and TSP came in trying to break that up with a gamestate read and a push on Abi which is... in my eyes weak and not good. There is a big part of me wanting to go Bereft -> TSP here.

And then there is Dizzy who is still just not playing the game but never got hard pressure for it except for me and mac, and now mac is dead.

I do not want to go tedxtr today.
I feel like wolf!TSP would have better options to push than Abbi and me because neither of us were wagons or even scumread by anyone else at the point when TSP decided he thought we were scum. Idk though, am I giving too much leeway to him for that? I just think they were kind of outlandish pushes since they would do pretty much nothing to further a wolf's agenda.

On the topic of Bereft, I will take a look at him again. But if you think Ted is towny, you think the wagons were T/T yesterday, i guess. And then you had Bereft and Rondo who were both pushing Ted rather than Robyn... You think if they're both wolfing, it was just for show? Because if Ted is town, there shouldn't have been a preference for who wolves would rather push over, unless they thought that Robyn would make a strong comeback on D2 (which I guess would make sense).

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 5:48 am
by Ranmilia
Understood. <3

Yeah Dizzy is the only person in that list I think can be a wolf, and while the chances of that ARE high they're not 100% or near enough that I can see any weight in that. Wagon purity reads are, in my experience, I typed "useless and antitown" but on reflection there are times where I have gone "this wagon absolutely never goes over without multiple wolves on it". Highly overused though. Let's go with that. And in a case like this where the major events of the push are "Mac started it and pushed hard" and then "robyn bailed from the thread" and they're both flipped town, I don't see any particular indications of when wolves would go on it.

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 5:52 am
by WindwardAway
leetic wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:57 pm So, about those hidden votes. We know robyn is town, and RDB and Abby were the other two to receive it. If it was a wolf power, I doubt they'd use it if it would spew the people who received them as town, as that's basically three clears in a phase. Thus, in that scenario, I feel two towns and a wolf receiving it makes the most sense, and all that's assuming a wolf isn't lying anyway, so we'd have one wolf in Abby/RDB. But if it's something from the other thread? Then I'd have no idea what to do about that, and seeing if Porscha knows anything would be our only hope.
I really don't think a wolf would use a hidden vote on a other wolf. That's why I said earlier, since it's a hidden vote, if anything a wolf would use it on, say, 2 town and then one of the scumteam would claim a fake third. We have no actual proof of these hidden votes except that we know Robyn was telling the truth. And I guess it's also possible it's a fake message, too, like if players are told about an extra vote on them but it's a bluff (although I have yet to think of why that would be useful).

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 5:56 am
by WindwardAway
leetic wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:38 pm
Bereft wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:36 pm
leetic wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:01 pm Questions for @Porscha (keeping track of these in a post so we can use our time with them more efficiently):

How did nutella die?
Are the threads out of sync? (e.g. did Night 1 start 24 hours earlier in the other thread?)
Do you know anything about the hidden votes?

If anyone has any more feel free to add them
This is getting pretty irritating.

1. By NK.
2. We know this to be true.
3. IDK, my best guess is that its the corresponding outies of whoever received most votes at work, but I certainly don't think Porscha would know.

None of this is that hard to puzzle out.

~ Schweppes
If one and two are correct, why did nutella exit now instead of at EoD?
Presumably because JJJ wasn't going to make an extra post about it during the evening, so he just waited till our eod?

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 5:58 am
by WindwardAway
leetic wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:48 pm
leetic wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:38 pm
Bereft wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:36 pm
leetic wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:01 pm Questions for @Porscha (keeping track of these in a post so we can use our time with them more efficiently):

How did nutella die?
Are the threads out of sync? (e.g. did Night 1 start 24 hours earlier in the other thread?)
Do you know anything about the hidden votes?

If anyone has any more feel free to add them
This is getting pretty irritating.

1. By NK.
2. We know this to be true.
3. IDK, my best guess is that its the corresponding outies of whoever received most votes at work, but I certainly don't think Porscha would know.

None of this is that hard to puzzle out.

~ Schweppes
If one and two are correct, why did nutella exit now instead of at EoD?
I mean, I don't think Porscha has given us a straight answer as to how they died yet. There's still a lot we don't know here.
I thought she got voted out, and presumably because of slanking

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:00 am
by WindwardAway
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 12:02 am Why did Nutella exit in this thread is sorta an interesting question, she was never in this thread
Maybe so that we know who's dead in the other thread? In case they might converge later on or something

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:03 am
by WindwardAway
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 3:22 am
leetic wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 2:24 am
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 2:21 am
leetic wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 1:22 am
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 1:12 am Idk don’t make much of it
Do you still have Dyslexicon and Abby as wolfreads or have your views changed in light of the flip?
I think Dizzy looks maybe marginally better from the vote dip, Abby looks bad still
What about Dizzy's parked vote looks good? And can you elaborate on your read of Abby?
The atmosphere around the Robyn push shifted a lot, for Dizzy as a wolf to drop the vote in that manner would require in my mind maybe an unreasonable amount of foresight. This is somewhat of a bad explanation but I just think like it’s not an indicator of agenda. Then again, Dizzy is a good wolf and maybe knows Mac well enough to figure it out.

I don’t think Abby has contributed to the goals of the town in this game and moreover has received little attention and just occasionally some spare defenders saying “read her iso” (which ok I haven’t done). Granted we haven’t launched any wolves so no one has exactly contributed much. I also think it’s bizarre that people keep treating it like it’s a bad push. Like ??? No one has offered a concrete reason that Abby is towny, besides possibly if someone wants to make a spew read.
I think she actually put effort into solving the game early on
I'll see if that actually holds up but that was my reason for thinking Abbi is town

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:07 am
by WindwardAway
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 3:27 am Could it be that Mac was killed because he was wrong, not because he was right?
If that were the case, I would expect he'd be killed for having an incorrect townread and not necessarily an incorrect scumread, like if he were hard shielding a wolf.

(hes gonna hate that I'm saying this since it risks tearing up the towncore, but I mean from a wolf perspective it's more beneficial to kill a loud townie with thread pull who accidentally townreads a wolf imo)

But I legit just think he was killed for being super towny, and I'm not reading into whether his reads were accurate or not, beyond what I already formed opinions on while he was around.

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:08 am
by Ranmilia
WindwardAway wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 5:46 am
I feel like wolf!TSP would have better options to push than Abbi and me because neither of us were wagons or even scumread by anyone else at the point when TSP decided he thought we were scum. Idk though, am I giving too much leeway to him for that? I just think they were kind of outlandish pushes since they would do pretty much nothing to further a wolf's agenda.

On the topic of Bereft, I will take a look at him again. But if you think Ted is towny, you think the wagons were T/T yesterday, i guess. And then you had Bereft and Rondo who were both pushing Ted rather than Robyn... You think if they're both wolfing, it was just for show? Because if Ted is town, there shouldn't have been a preference for who wolves would rather push over, unless they thought that Robyn would make a strong comeback on D2 (which I guess would make sense).
Well, the level 0 read is that Bereft and TSP are wolves, Bereft was getting buried by Robyn and everyone generally, and then TSP came in to break up the momentum and say "the obvious wolf yeet is bad, it can't be that easy day 1, why don't we vote [one of the towniest players and a social player] instead, see they must be wolves because they DON'T have votes, let's play opposites land where wolfy people are towny and towny people with no pressure must be wolfy!"

I don't think Ted is towny exactly but I think he is less scummy than my main suspects and doesn't fit in many teams with them.

Saying "ted/robyn were the wagons yesterday" is i think a very inaccurate description of the day. Bereft, Dizzy and Gira were all serious wagons at points as well, arguably Rondo too. If you want to look at only the late day then it's more like "Robyn vs [resolving ted vs rondo]" and I could not hazard a guess where wolves would fall on that. I don't think Bereft/Rondo is out of the question. I think it's more important to look at the... how to explain it. The flow of the thread rather than the votals on paper when looking at wagonomics like that. Like Bereft only ever had, like, 3 actual votes on him but mid day it felt like that was a solid wagon that was very likely to go over and at eod people would pile on unless something big happened. That is what I mean by spiritual votes. Although mac disagreed with me on that. But still that's how I think.

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:11 am
by WindwardAway
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 3:36 am well now I’m sitting on Gira / ran / X yeah

Abby is just in the archetype of people I like to suspect [is the reality of it]
You're gonna have to sell me hard on the Ran scumread. And with more than just that "abysmal" was an out-of-place description.
Gira I went back and forth on earlier and figured at some point that I was just being uncharitable to him earlier in the game. I'd also like to hear a case on him.

Is it just that you think wolves have thread pull?

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:12 am
by Ranmilia
And importantly I don't think there are many worlds where ted actually goes over there. If anything I feel like Rondo was more likely to go over, in a world where Robyn comes back. That may be my respect for mac talking.

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:13 am
by Ranmilia
In particular if ted IS a wolf ted NEVER goes over there. But.

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:15 am
by WindwardAway
Ranmilia wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 4:49 am
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 3:27 am And the flop on Robyn geez
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 3:27 am Could it be that Mac was killed because he was wrong, not because he was right?
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 3:36 am well now I’m sitting on Gira / ran / X yeah

Abby is just in the archetype of people I like to suspect [is the reality of it]
[VOTE: TSP] aubergine

Just look at this. There is no universe town TSP comes in to this day and believes and says these things.
I just kinda think his pushes are so completely opposite to my reads and to the consensus that it's probably not agenda
He doesn't have a ton of thread influence so picking targets to push who are unlikely to become wagons seems to do nothing, imo
If we're going by the "not helpful to town" metric, maybe I could see it, but otherwise there's no agenda as far as I can tell.

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:20 am
by Ranmilia
wind my wonderful and precious friend

"not helpful to town" is literally what "agenda" IS

that is literally the wolf agenda! to do antitown things and muddy the waters to where wolves are town and town are wolves and anyone's behavior could be anything! if that's not "agenda" then what does agenda mean to you??

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:21 am
by WindwardAway
Ranmilia wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:13 am In particular if ted IS a wolf ted NEVER goes over there. But.
Yeah, I think I get what you're saying. I'm at this weird in-between place with Ted, though, because I feel like post-wise he's not the scummiest in the list, but I also feel like there's something off about his wagon formation/dissolution and I don't necessarily think it was just wolves trying to hop on him to create another town counterwagon to Robyn.

Speaking of wagons, though, yeah I agree with the points you guys have been saying about Dizzy, but more about how he's been a low influence with his drive-by reads and votes and less about where on Robyn's wagon he was sitting.

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:25 am
by WindwardAway
Ranmilia wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:20 am wind my wonderful and precious friend

"not helpful to town" is literally what "agenda" IS

that is literally the wolf agenda! to do antitown things and muddy the waters to where wolves are town and town are wolves and anyone's behavior could be anything! if that's not "agenda" then what does agenda mean to you??
Agenda, to me, is when a wolf makes an active effort to push a town player that they think will actually gain traction as a wagon, not just to muddy the waters but to try to get their target voted out.

I could buy that w!TSP wants to see what sticks, but I legit think that none of his pushes so far sound remotely like they'd stick. None of them are even sowing paranoia for me, and I would expect a wolf to at least try to increase paranoia levels by writing up a case on their unlikely targets and trying to convince people to give those names another look. But I don't feel like TSP is trying to convince anyone of his reads. He's just giving them, and it seems to end there. Idk, maybe I'm just immune to whatever convincing he's done but I've seen no real push to make others believe his reads. Unless you count him saying that nobody has given a real towncase on Abbi, but that's kinda been objectively true, and it doesn't change my opinion.

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:26 am
by WindwardAway
I guess I'm saying that "not helpful to town" is not the same as "harmful to town" but that's probably just my interpretation of it

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:36 am
by Ranmilia
Maybe not his scumreads, but he did make a serious push to protect and get people off of Bereft (and/or dizzy), and it was working, even before any of the robyn stuff happened. Here's the post again for reference:
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2023 8:05 pm Here’s the situation: not all is right. We’re about to limp into the stupidest looking bereft chop I’ve ever seen. It’s probably rand and there are somewhat good reasons not to do that. So then, who’s in this game who should know better? I promise I didn’t just immediately jump to the two voters on Bereft for the record, I think that looks slightly towny. Leetic seems to have lost a bit of the edge, can’t tell why. WWA is posting a lot but has no thread control nor have they attempted to wrest it. I won’t vote for Mac or dizzy day 1. Ted seems alright. Mac’s defending Gira. I won’t vote Rondo D1 for opposite reasons. Ran and Robyn are self resolving.
The two people he's pushing are the voters on Bereft, which he even lampshades directly and calls them towny(?!). The other wagon atp is dizzy with me and mac voting there iirc, and he blows that off as well.

The more I look here the more I am seeing tsp/bereft/dizzy. Which is very premature but. There's hella agenda.

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:37 am
by Ranmilia
Agenda doesn't only have to be a push to actually get them voted out. Discrediting correct reads is also agenda.

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 7:10 am
by RondoDimBuckle
tedxtr wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 3:37 am [VOTE: Rondo ] aubergine

for now. @RondoDimBuckle can you please explain why you were villa reading leetic for not knowing your meta, but you seem to think there NEEDS to be a wolf that’s suspecting you?

wouldn’t it make sense that it could be villas that don’t know your meta? since you seemed to imply you deal with “this” every game. do you get pushed by wolves that don’t have meta with you in the diff games?

it’s just weird you seem to guide your wolfreads on an arbitrary fact, even though you have no issue recognizing that leetic doesn’t know your meta and is a villager for it, yet the other two people MUST contain a wolf

like why does that have to be mandatory?
Currently sneaking a quick post at karaoke trying not to be rude to the host

If I miss anything its not intentional just a little buzzed

More just going off experience in the last games I have been playing people who see me enter and don't know me assume I am inexperienced and easy pickings. So naturally easy to push and I have routinel caught a wolves pushing it.

Its not hard and Fast but its a good starting point for me to look into day 1 after a sub in with work spamming me. I had 3 people who didn't know and all 3 of them wanted me so from my pov someone should be a bad actor. I don't want to be on main wagon when I don't have a clue so I had to pick one to push and discover how the others acted

Ummm I just finished a song so I have lost my train of thought

Yeah. Over represent, under represent. Keep a counter wagon live to get into and analyse. Yeah I remember now

I need to see how people have reacted today and then that's going to help me sort you. But the content is in thread for everyone as well to assess in lylo.

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 7:55 am
by tedxtr
i guess i get it, but i don’t get why you focused so hard on me specifically and ignored gira

if you believed so hard that 1 wolf was pushing you, what made me the wolf and why not explore gira as an option?

it all just seems like extremely arbitrary and i don’t follow


as for the voting theory, if it was a villager doing it, they should’ve claimed eons ago, but we don’t know how the mechanics in this game work

i tinfoiled that it’s possible wolf dayroles can act in either thread but it seems broken af. in that sense, wolves could’ve negatively hit all players in the other thread and a wolf in here can claim the debuff cuz there’s no way we’d be able to figure that one out

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 7:57 am
by tedxtr
well it’s not possible for all people to be hit there, cuz we had like 3 people claim it in here, one of which we know was telling the truth

but the point remains

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 8:03 am
by tedxtr
i’m down to vote dizzy, he needs to post up a heat

had a really tame day yesterdau, that didn’t make much sense either

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 9:21 am
by WindwardAway
Ranmilia wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:36 am Maybe not his scumreads, but he did make a serious push to protect and get people off of Bereft (and/or dizzy), and it was working, even before any of the robyn stuff happened. Here's the post again for reference:
TonyStarkPrime wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2023 8:05 pm Here’s the situation: not all is right. We’re about to limp into the stupidest looking bereft chop I’ve ever seen. It’s probably rand and there are somewhat good reasons not to do that. So then, who’s in this game who should know better? I promise I didn’t just immediately jump to the two voters on Bereft for the record, I think that looks slightly towny. Leetic seems to have lost a bit of the edge, can’t tell why. WWA is posting a lot but has no thread control nor have they attempted to wrest it. I won’t vote for Mac or dizzy day 1. Ted seems alright. Mac’s defending Gira. I won’t vote Rondo D1 for opposite reasons. Ran and Robyn are self resolving.
The two people he's pushing are the voters on Bereft, which he even lampshades directly and calls them towny(?!). The other wagon atp is dizzy with me and mac voting there iirc, and he blows that off as well.

The more I look here the more I am seeing tsp/bereft/dizzy. Which is very premature but. There's hella agenda.
I completely forgot about that lol, thanks for quoting it

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 9:22 am
by WindwardAway
Ranmilia wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:37 am Agenda doesn't only have to be a push to actually get them voted out. Discrediting correct reads is also agenda.
Yeah, I didn't think I saw any discrediting from TSP but forgot about the Bereft thing so yeah, I understand your case now

Not sure how much I agree but at least I see where you're coming from

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 9:25 am
by WindwardAway
Gotta go, board game night but I'll check the thread when I can.

[VOTE: Dyslexicon] aubergine

I want to hear from him, and I want to hear more than just a read with no explanation before he dips again.

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 10:08 am
by TonyStarkPrime
Ranmilia wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:20 am wind my wonderful and precious friend

"not helpful to town" is literally what "agenda" IS

that is literally the wolf agenda! to do antitown things and muddy the waters to where wolves are town and town are wolves and anyone's behavior could be anything! if that's not "agenda" then what does agenda mean to you??
Agenda is trying to chain obvious MDFs (sung to the tune of happiness from you’re a good man Charlie Brown)

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 10:11 am
by TonyStarkPrime
“It’s too early to start trying to break up the game” no no it’s not there is absolutely no reason to go for this muddy the waters nonsense “he was trying to save bereft (his wolf buddy) by dropping a mostly naked vote on a top poster” you do not believe that and yes I WAS trying to save bereft

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 10:13 am
by TonyStarkPrime
Ranmilia wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:08 am
WindwardAway wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 5:46 am
I feel like wolf!TSP would have better options to push than Abbi and me because neither of us were wagons or even scumread by anyone else at the point when TSP decided he thought we were scum. Idk though, am I giving too much leeway to him for that? I just think they were kind of outlandish pushes since they would do pretty much nothing to further a wolf's agenda.

On the topic of Bereft, I will take a look at him again. But if you think Ted is towny, you think the wagons were T/T yesterday, i guess. And then you had Bereft and Rondo who were both pushing Ted rather than Robyn... You think if they're both wolfing, it was just for show? Because if Ted is town, there shouldn't have been a preference for who wolves would rather push over, unless they thought that Robyn would make a strong comeback on D2 (which I guess would make sense).
Well, the level 0 read is that Bereft and TSP are wolves, Bereft was getting buried by Robyn and everyone generally, and then TSP came in to break up the momentum and say "the obvious wolf yeet is bad, it can't be that easy day 1, why don't we vote [one of the towniest players and a social player] instead, see they must be wolves because they DON'T have votes, let's play opposites land where wolfy people are towny and towny people with no pressure must be wolfy!"

I don't think Ted is towny exactly but I think he is less scummy than my main suspects and doesn't fit in many teams with them.

Saying "ted/robyn were the wagons yesterday" is i think a very inaccurate description of the day. Bereft, Dizzy and Gira were all serious wagons at points as well, arguably Rondo too. If you want to look at only the late day then it's more like "Robyn vs [resolving ted vs rondo]" and I could not hazard a guess where wolves would fall on that. I don't think Bereft/Rondo is out of the question. I think it's more important to look at the... how to explain it. The flow of the thread rather than the votals on paper when looking at wagonomics like that. Like Bereft only ever had, like, 3 actual votes on him but mid day it felt like that was a solid wagon that was very likely to go over and at eod people would pile on unless something big happened. That is what I mean by spiritual votes. Although mac disagreed with me on that. But still that's how I think.
I do not think Abigail is towny and you have not tried to sway me of this

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 10:13 am
by TonyStarkPrime
Like I don’t explain my reads but I could have at least put together two sentences by now

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 10:15 am
by TonyStarkPrime
Like yeah I was trying to muddy the waters, the waters suck, and if you’re going to watch TSP be Cassandra game after game and try to make something of it then that’s on you

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 10:16 am
by TonyStarkPrime
this is vaguely my reminder to go back and read Robyn’s iso

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 10:20 am
by TonyStarkPrime
ALSO like ok I was not the only person who came into the thread yesterday determined to save bereft by pushing on someone who had been considered top town I was just less successful

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 12:07 pm
by ☆Princess Abigail☆
Gira wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:09 pm i love it when people gamethrow when i'm town it's a lot of fun it really makes me enjoy mafia with how it always happens
Image

It's okay we still win these

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 12:08 pm
by Bereft
Sippppppppppp ~ Schweppes

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 12:09 pm
by ☆Princess Abigail☆
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:18 pm Hey All, not pleased at all with the Mac and Robyn death. Only reasons I signed up at all was them.

I have a very busy weekend with a dnd game, karaoke party, drive to a castle out in the styx and then a birthday party today and tomorrow so I am going to be mostly absent / phone posting at best.

I would never make the Mac kill. I love to snow Mac as wolf. You can take it with a grain of salt of course but at least its the weekend so I can be phone posting here and then with no impact from work (Assuming no one breaks any servers again)

I was legit hoping Mac would come in today and exonerate me saying it was just one of his big brain plays that he usually does. I was prepared to have to go toe to toe and be late for dnd but now I am just going to say my peace and dip(ish)

Ill see if I can swing some late night posting Sunday to actually drill into EOD tomorrow
I actually pretty much 100% believe this

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 12:10 pm
by ☆Princess Abigail☆
I'm willing to bet the game on DubzDimBuckle being town

I'm rarely wrong on snap reads and I was pretty convinced Dubz was town and Rondo has done nothing to make me feel I'm wrong I don't really understand the Rondo push

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 12:12 pm
by ☆Princess Abigail☆
leetic wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:23 pm In the last game, when w!pyxxy was hedging off of the main options, he landed on his partner. This time, he landed on me, and I am definitely not his partner. So, while nothing really sells me on pyxxy being town, there are a lot of differences from his prior wolfgame. Granted, this isn't a rreliable indicator for every player; I played two consecutive games with w!neopest and she played pretty differently in both
I feel like this equivalency is weird to make like... why does Pyxxy have to follow the same exact vote pattern to a teammate when avoiding mason wagons

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 12:12 pm
by ☆Princess Abigail☆
Main wagons*

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 12:15 pm
by ☆Princess Abigail☆
leetic wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:30 pm I don't know why Bereft voted the hedge option, but damn their posting method is just so cryptic. If they don't get serious this phase there will be issues.
What was Robyn's final read on schweppes?

I didn't read EoD and I won't

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 12:15 pm
by ☆Princess Abigail☆
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:31 pm
WindwardAway wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:25 pm
leetic wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:23 pm In the last game, when w!pyxxy was hedging off of the main options, he landed on his partner. This time, he landed on me, and I am definitely not his partner. So, while nothing really sells me on pyxxy being town, there are a lot of differences from his prior wolfgame. Granted, this isn't a rreliable indicator for every player; I played two consecutive games with w!neopest and she played pretty differently in both
I like this observation. Im pretty sure I've also seen him vote his wolf partner to distance from them before.
I have wolfed with pyxxy before if I recall correctly and he was bussing hard
Hmm this is the third person to say something to this effect and it increasingly makes me anxious

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 12:16 pm
by ☆Princess Abigail☆
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:34 pm
leetic wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:25 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:22 pm
leetic wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:07 pm Anyway, I presume that means nutella won't be joining us, and Mac probably won't be in the other thread. Porscha should probably return this night. Perhaps lynch targets are allowed to return but nightkills are gone forever?

MacDougall seems likely to be a wolf kill. This at least reduces the possibility of a serial killer.
What does your first paragraph mean?
Porscha came from the other thread and was able to make ten posts last EoD. nutella almost certainly won't be able to do that. I guess when nutella died is something we can ask Porscha about when the time comes.
Is @Porscha still here today? two games going simultaneously is JJJ fucked enough to have one game join the other on win? Its what I would do
I'm pretty sure Porscha should still be here

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 12:19 pm
by ☆Princess Abigail☆
WindwardAway wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:44 pm
leetic wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:41 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:38 pm
leetic wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:31 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:29 pm Also I meant to post this yesterday
Spoiler: show
image (13).png
Dyslexicon definitely stands out as the least TR-able of the early robyn voters. It's definitely a good blend-in vote.
Why? Can I get your review on all the d1 voters on Robyn?
The others were consensus townreads, Dyslexicon wasn't, plus they were a lot less vocal than the others so they definitely stand out in the list. I'm not sure the exact order, but if they were fifth I don't necessarily see wolves making that vote so early unless it was to protect ted or something. But again, I'll look at things more closely in a bit.
I believe the extra vote on Robyn happened before I voted them, and I think I was third on the list (could've been fourth, though, I was definitely in the middle)
The thing that concerns me about the robyn wagon is how quickly it ran off after I voted and brought the wagons relatively close to each other

I do kinda think this implies T v S and I think that pyxxy can be wolf who decides to vote a town off wagon instead of their teammate who's the CW and relatively safe at that stage

Re: Severance [Evening Two]

Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 12:21 pm
by ☆Princess Abigail☆
Ranmilia wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:46 pm
WindwardAway wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:22 pm
Ranmilia wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:20 pm I have. Feelings about Robyn but. They are probably not helpful. Regardless we move on. Robyn if you can see this thread I hope you are well.

So.

Rondo, Bereft, TSP, Dizzy all look abysmal to me here. I would like anyone who strongly townreads any of these players to tell me why.
I wrote updated thoughts about Rondo a few posts above, if you want my input
Noted. I disagree with robyn partnership being the main thrust of suspicion though, the main suspicion in my eyes is general wolfyness and lack of solving - that he hadn't and still hasn't Done anything in the game to help town beyond fluff and bluster and easy votes. I gave that a pass yesterday but one of my criteria for him was "he's charging at mac so let mac decide" and mac decided wolfy.

Regardless of his rep, Mac doesn't die if ALL his major suspicions are wrong and the four I listed were his suspects.

(Well three and Bereft, but he also scumread Bereft on first look and flipped around when he was scumreading Robyn, who godscumread Bereft, and we now know Robyn was town so.)

TSP also pinged mac's general scumdar, and before the whole mac robyn thing, we were going on bereft, and TSP came in trying to break that up with a gamestate read and a push on Abi which is... in my eyes weak and not good. There is a big part of me wanting to go Bereft -> TSP here.

And then there is Dizzy who is still just not playing the game but never got hard pressure for it except for me and mac, and now mac is dead.

I do not want to go tedxtr today.
Honestly Mac isn't always the hardest to pocket. He's wary of me now but like iirc if you gas up his reads and be really nice to him is pretty easy to make him blind to you. I think there's people in the pl who would just try to pocket Mac instead of kill him because when you have Mac on your side you have an extremely powerful ally to protect you