Re: Severance [Evening Two]
Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2023 5:02 am
D1 VCA, as I like to do colors
Spoiler: show
playful recreationleetic wrote: ↑Thu Nov 16, 2023 6:04 pmWell, in that case tedxtr would be the bus vote. This is just an average scenario, though.WindwardAway wrote: ↑Thu Nov 16, 2023 6:03 pmWould that still hold true if both of them turn out to be wolves?
I feel like wolf!TSP would have better options to push than Abbi and me because neither of us were wagons or even scumread by anyone else at the point when TSP decided he thought we were scum. Idk though, am I giving too much leeway to him for that? I just think they were kind of outlandish pushes since they would do pretty much nothing to further a wolf's agenda.Ranmilia wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:46 pmNoted. I disagree with robyn partnership being the main thrust of suspicion though, the main suspicion in my eyes is general wolfyness and lack of solving - that he hadn't and still hasn't Done anything in the game to help town beyond fluff and bluster and easy votes. I gave that a pass yesterday but one of my criteria for him was "he's charging at mac so let mac decide" and mac decided wolfy.WindwardAway wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:22 pmI wrote updated thoughts about Rondo a few posts above, if you want my inputRanmilia wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:20 pm I have. Feelings about Robyn but. They are probably not helpful. Regardless we move on. Robyn if you can see this thread I hope you are well.
So.
Rondo, Bereft, TSP, Dizzy all look abysmal to me here. I would like anyone who strongly townreads any of these players to tell me why.
Regardless of his rep, Mac doesn't die if ALL his major suspicions are wrong and the four I listed were his suspects.
(Well three and Bereft, but he also scumread Bereft on first look and flipped around when he was scumreading Robyn, who godscumread Bereft, and we now know Robyn was town so.)
TSP also pinged mac's general scumdar, and before the whole mac robyn thing, we were going on bereft, and TSP came in trying to break that up with a gamestate read and a push on Abi which is... in my eyes weak and not good. There is a big part of me wanting to go Bereft -> TSP here.
And then there is Dizzy who is still just not playing the game but never got hard pressure for it except for me and mac, and now mac is dead.
I do not want to go tedxtr today.
I really don't think a wolf would use a hidden vote on a other wolf. That's why I said earlier, since it's a hidden vote, if anything a wolf would use it on, say, 2 town and then one of the scumteam would claim a fake third. We have no actual proof of these hidden votes except that we know Robyn was telling the truth. And I guess it's also possible it's a fake message, too, like if players are told about an extra vote on them but it's a bluff (although I have yet to think of why that would be useful).leetic wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:57 pm So, about those hidden votes. We know robyn is town, and RDB and Abby were the other two to receive it. If it was a wolf power, I doubt they'd use it if it would spew the people who received them as town, as that's basically three clears in a phase. Thus, in that scenario, I feel two towns and a wolf receiving it makes the most sense, and all that's assuming a wolf isn't lying anyway, so we'd have one wolf in Abby/RDB. But if it's something from the other thread? Then I'd have no idea what to do about that, and seeing if Porscha knows anything would be our only hope.
Presumably because JJJ wasn't going to make an extra post about it during the evening, so he just waited till our eod?leetic wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:38 pmIf one and two are correct, why did nutella exit now instead of at EoD?Bereft wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:36 pmThis is getting pretty irritating.leetic wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:01 pm Questions for @Porscha (keeping track of these in a post so we can use our time with them more efficiently):
How did nutella die?
Are the threads out of sync? (e.g. did Night 1 start 24 hours earlier in the other thread?)
Do you know anything about the hidden votes?
If anyone has any more feel free to add them
1. By NK.
2. We know this to be true.
3. IDK, my best guess is that its the corresponding outies of whoever received most votes at work, but I certainly don't think Porscha would know.
None of this is that hard to puzzle out.
~ Schweppes
I thought she got voted out, and presumably because of slankingleetic wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:48 pmI mean, I don't think Porscha has given us a straight answer as to how they died yet. There's still a lot we don't know here.leetic wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:38 pmIf one and two are correct, why did nutella exit now instead of at EoD?Bereft wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:36 pmThis is getting pretty irritating.leetic wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:01 pm Questions for @Porscha (keeping track of these in a post so we can use our time with them more efficiently):
How did nutella die?
Are the threads out of sync? (e.g. did Night 1 start 24 hours earlier in the other thread?)
Do you know anything about the hidden votes?
If anyone has any more feel free to add them
1. By NK.
2. We know this to be true.
3. IDK, my best guess is that its the corresponding outies of whoever received most votes at work, but I certainly don't think Porscha would know.
None of this is that hard to puzzle out.
~ Schweppes
Maybe so that we know who's dead in the other thread? In case they might converge later on or somethingTonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2023 12:02 am Why did Nutella exit in this thread is sorta an interesting question, she was never in this thread
I think she actually put effort into solving the game early onTonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2023 3:22 amThe atmosphere around the Robyn push shifted a lot, for Dizzy as a wolf to drop the vote in that manner would require in my mind maybe an unreasonable amount of foresight. This is somewhat of a bad explanation but I just think like it’s not an indicator of agenda. Then again, Dizzy is a good wolf and maybe knows Mac well enough to figure it out.leetic wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2023 2:24 amWhat about Dizzy's parked vote looks good? And can you elaborate on your read of Abby?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2023 2:21 amI think Dizzy looks maybe marginally better from the vote dip, Abby looks bad still
I don’t think Abby has contributed to the goals of the town in this game and moreover has received little attention and just occasionally some spare defenders saying “read her iso” (which ok I haven’t done). Granted we haven’t launched any wolves so no one has exactly contributed much. I also think it’s bizarre that people keep treating it like it’s a bad push. Like ??? No one has offered a concrete reason that Abby is towny, besides possibly if someone wants to make a spew read.
If that were the case, I would expect he'd be killed for having an incorrect townread and not necessarily an incorrect scumread, like if he were hard shielding a wolf.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2023 3:27 am Could it be that Mac was killed because he was wrong, not because he was right?
Well, the level 0 read is that Bereft and TSP are wolves, Bereft was getting buried by Robyn and everyone generally, and then TSP came in to break up the momentum and say "the obvious wolf yeet is bad, it can't be that easy day 1, why don't we vote [one of the towniest players and a social player] instead, see they must be wolves because they DON'T have votes, let's play opposites land where wolfy people are towny and towny people with no pressure must be wolfy!"WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2023 5:46 am
I feel like wolf!TSP would have better options to push than Abbi and me because neither of us were wagons or even scumread by anyone else at the point when TSP decided he thought we were scum. Idk though, am I giving too much leeway to him for that? I just think they were kind of outlandish pushes since they would do pretty much nothing to further a wolf's agenda.
On the topic of Bereft, I will take a look at him again. But if you think Ted is towny, you think the wagons were T/T yesterday, i guess. And then you had Bereft and Rondo who were both pushing Ted rather than Robyn... You think if they're both wolfing, it was just for show? Because if Ted is town, there shouldn't have been a preference for who wolves would rather push over, unless they thought that Robyn would make a strong comeback on D2 (which I guess would make sense).
You're gonna have to sell me hard on the Ran scumread. And with more than just that "abysmal" was an out-of-place description.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2023 3:36 am well now I’m sitting on Gira / ran / X yeah
Abby is just in the archetype of people I like to suspect [is the reality of it]
I just kinda think his pushes are so completely opposite to my reads and to the consensus that it's probably not agendaRanmilia wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2023 4:49 amTonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2023 3:27 am Could it be that Mac was killed because he was wrong, not because he was right?[VOTE: TSP] aubergineTonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2023 3:36 am well now I’m sitting on Gira / ran / X yeah
Abby is just in the archetype of people I like to suspect [is the reality of it]
Just look at this. There is no universe town TSP comes in to this day and believes and says these things.
Yeah, I think I get what you're saying. I'm at this weird in-between place with Ted, though, because I feel like post-wise he's not the scummiest in the list, but I also feel like there's something off about his wagon formation/dissolution and I don't necessarily think it was just wolves trying to hop on him to create another town counterwagon to Robyn.
Agenda, to me, is when a wolf makes an active effort to push a town player that they think will actually gain traction as a wagon, not just to muddy the waters but to try to get their target voted out.Ranmilia wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:20 am wind my wonderful and precious friend
"not helpful to town" is literally what "agenda" IS
that is literally the wolf agenda! to do antitown things and muddy the waters to where wolves are town and town are wolves and anyone's behavior could be anything! if that's not "agenda" then what does agenda mean to you??
The two people he's pushing are the voters on Bereft, which he even lampshades directly and calls them towny(?!). The other wagon atp is dizzy with me and mac voting there iirc, and he blows that off as well.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Wed Nov 15, 2023 8:05 pm Here’s the situation: not all is right. We’re about to limp into the stupidest looking bereft chop I’ve ever seen. It’s probably rand and there are somewhat good reasons not to do that. So then, who’s in this game who should know better? I promise I didn’t just immediately jump to the two voters on Bereft for the record, I think that looks slightly towny. Leetic seems to have lost a bit of the edge, can’t tell why. WWA is posting a lot but has no thread control nor have they attempted to wrest it. I won’t vote for Mac or dizzy day 1. Ted seems alright. Mac’s defending Gira. I won’t vote Rondo D1 for opposite reasons. Ran and Robyn are self resolving.
Currently sneaking a quick post at karaoke trying not to be rude to the hosttedxtr wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2023 3:37 am [VOTE: Rondo ] aubergine
for now. @RondoDimBuckle can you please explain why you were villa reading leetic for not knowing your meta, but you seem to think there NEEDS to be a wolf that’s suspecting you?
wouldn’t it make sense that it could be villas that don’t know your meta? since you seemed to imply you deal with “this” every game. do you get pushed by wolves that don’t have meta with you in the diff games?
it’s just weird you seem to guide your wolfreads on an arbitrary fact, even though you have no issue recognizing that leetic doesn’t know your meta and is a villager for it, yet the other two people MUST contain a wolf
like why does that have to be mandatory?
I completely forgot about that lol, thanks for quoting itRanmilia wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:36 am Maybe not his scumreads, but he did make a serious push to protect and get people off of Bereft (and/or dizzy), and it was working, even before any of the robyn stuff happened. Here's the post again for reference:
The two people he's pushing are the voters on Bereft, which he even lampshades directly and calls them towny(?!). The other wagon atp is dizzy with me and mac voting there iirc, and he blows that off as well.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Wed Nov 15, 2023 8:05 pm Here’s the situation: not all is right. We’re about to limp into the stupidest looking bereft chop I’ve ever seen. It’s probably rand and there are somewhat good reasons not to do that. So then, who’s in this game who should know better? I promise I didn’t just immediately jump to the two voters on Bereft for the record, I think that looks slightly towny. Leetic seems to have lost a bit of the edge, can’t tell why. WWA is posting a lot but has no thread control nor have they attempted to wrest it. I won’t vote for Mac or dizzy day 1. Ted seems alright. Mac’s defending Gira. I won’t vote Rondo D1 for opposite reasons. Ran and Robyn are self resolving.
The more I look here the more I am seeing tsp/bereft/dizzy. Which is very premature but. There's hella agenda.
Yeah, I didn't think I saw any discrediting from TSP but forgot about the Bereft thing so yeah, I understand your case now
Agenda is trying to chain obvious MDFs (sung to the tune of happiness from you’re a good man Charlie Brown)Ranmilia wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:20 am wind my wonderful and precious friend
"not helpful to town" is literally what "agenda" IS
that is literally the wolf agenda! to do antitown things and muddy the waters to where wolves are town and town are wolves and anyone's behavior could be anything! if that's not "agenda" then what does agenda mean to you??
I do not think Abigail is towny and you have not tried to sway me of thisRanmilia wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:08 amWell, the level 0 read is that Bereft and TSP are wolves, Bereft was getting buried by Robyn and everyone generally, and then TSP came in to break up the momentum and say "the obvious wolf yeet is bad, it can't be that easy day 1, why don't we vote [one of the towniest players and a social player] instead, see they must be wolves because they DON'T have votes, let's play opposites land where wolfy people are towny and towny people with no pressure must be wolfy!"WindwardAway wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2023 5:46 am
I feel like wolf!TSP would have better options to push than Abbi and me because neither of us were wagons or even scumread by anyone else at the point when TSP decided he thought we were scum. Idk though, am I giving too much leeway to him for that? I just think they were kind of outlandish pushes since they would do pretty much nothing to further a wolf's agenda.
On the topic of Bereft, I will take a look at him again. But if you think Ted is towny, you think the wagons were T/T yesterday, i guess. And then you had Bereft and Rondo who were both pushing Ted rather than Robyn... You think if they're both wolfing, it was just for show? Because if Ted is town, there shouldn't have been a preference for who wolves would rather push over, unless they thought that Robyn would make a strong comeback on D2 (which I guess would make sense).
I don't think Ted is towny exactly but I think he is less scummy than my main suspects and doesn't fit in many teams with them.
Saying "ted/robyn were the wagons yesterday" is i think a very inaccurate description of the day. Bereft, Dizzy and Gira were all serious wagons at points as well, arguably Rondo too. If you want to look at only the late day then it's more like "Robyn vs [resolving ted vs rondo]" and I could not hazard a guess where wolves would fall on that. I don't think Bereft/Rondo is out of the question. I think it's more important to look at the... how to explain it. The flow of the thread rather than the votals on paper when looking at wagonomics like that. Like Bereft only ever had, like, 3 actual votes on him but mid day it felt like that was a solid wagon that was very likely to go over and at eod people would pile on unless something big happened. That is what I mean by spiritual votes. Although mac disagreed with me on that. But still that's how I think.
I actually pretty much 100% believe thisRondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:18 pm Hey All, not pleased at all with the Mac and Robyn death. Only reasons I signed up at all was them.
I have a very busy weekend with a dnd game, karaoke party, drive to a castle out in the styx and then a birthday party today and tomorrow so I am going to be mostly absent / phone posting at best.
I would never make the Mac kill. I love to snow Mac as wolf. You can take it with a grain of salt of course but at least its the weekend so I can be phone posting here and then with no impact from work (Assuming no one breaks any servers again)
I was legit hoping Mac would come in today and exonerate me saying it was just one of his big brain plays that he usually does. I was prepared to have to go toe to toe and be late for dnd but now I am just going to say my peace and dip(ish)
Ill see if I can swing some late night posting Sunday to actually drill into EOD tomorrow
I feel like this equivalency is weird to make like... why does Pyxxy have to follow the same exact vote pattern to a teammate when avoiding mason wagonsleetic wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:23 pm In the last game, when w!pyxxy was hedging off of the main options, he landed on his partner. This time, he landed on me, and I am definitely not his partner. So, while nothing really sells me on pyxxy being town, there are a lot of differences from his prior wolfgame. Granted, this isn't a rreliable indicator for every player; I played two consecutive games with w!neopest and she played pretty differently in both
Hmm this is the third person to say something to this effect and it increasingly makes me anxiousRondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:31 pmI have wolfed with pyxxy before if I recall correctly and he was bussing hardWindwardAway wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:25 pmI like this observation. Im pretty sure I've also seen him vote his wolf partner to distance from them before.leetic wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:23 pm In the last game, when w!pyxxy was hedging off of the main options, he landed on his partner. This time, he landed on me, and I am definitely not his partner. So, while nothing really sells me on pyxxy being town, there are a lot of differences from his prior wolfgame. Granted, this isn't a rreliable indicator for every player; I played two consecutive games with w!neopest and she played pretty differently in both
I'm pretty sure Porscha should still be hereRondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:34 pmIs @Porscha still here today? two games going simultaneously is JJJ fucked enough to have one game join the other on win? Its what I would doleetic wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:25 pmPorscha came from the other thread and was able to make ten posts last EoD. nutella almost certainly won't be able to do that. I guess when nutella died is something we can ask Porscha about when the time comes.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:22 pmWhat does your first paragraph mean?leetic wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:07 pm Anyway, I presume that means nutella won't be joining us, and Mac probably won't be in the other thread. Porscha should probably return this night. Perhaps lynch targets are allowed to return but nightkills are gone forever?
MacDougall seems likely to be a wolf kill. This at least reduces the possibility of a serial killer.
The thing that concerns me about the robyn wagon is how quickly it ran off after I voted and brought the wagons relatively close to each otherWindwardAway wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:44 pmI believe the extra vote on Robyn happened before I voted them, and I think I was third on the list (could've been fourth, though, I was definitely in the middle)leetic wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:41 pmThe others were consensus townreads, Dyslexicon wasn't, plus they were a lot less vocal than the others so they definitely stand out in the list. I'm not sure the exact order, but if they were fifth I don't necessarily see wolves making that vote so early unless it was to protect ted or something. But again, I'll look at things more closely in a bit.RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:38 pmWhy? Can I get your review on all the d1 voters on Robyn?
Honestly Mac isn't always the hardest to pocket. He's wary of me now but like iirc if you gas up his reads and be really nice to him is pretty easy to make him blind to you. I think there's people in the pl who would just try to pocket Mac instead of kill him because when you have Mac on your side you have an extremely powerful ally to protect youRanmilia wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:46 pmNoted. I disagree with robyn partnership being the main thrust of suspicion though, the main suspicion in my eyes is general wolfyness and lack of solving - that he hadn't and still hasn't Done anything in the game to help town beyond fluff and bluster and easy votes. I gave that a pass yesterday but one of my criteria for him was "he's charging at mac so let mac decide" and mac decided wolfy.WindwardAway wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:22 pmI wrote updated thoughts about Rondo a few posts above, if you want my inputRanmilia wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:20 pm I have. Feelings about Robyn but. They are probably not helpful. Regardless we move on. Robyn if you can see this thread I hope you are well.
So.
Rondo, Bereft, TSP, Dizzy all look abysmal to me here. I would like anyone who strongly townreads any of these players to tell me why.
Regardless of his rep, Mac doesn't die if ALL his major suspicions are wrong and the four I listed were his suspects.
(Well three and Bereft, but he also scumread Bereft on first look and flipped around when he was scumreading Robyn, who godscumread Bereft, and we now know Robyn was town so.)
TSP also pinged mac's general scumdar, and before the whole mac robyn thing, we were going on bereft, and TSP came in trying to break that up with a gamestate read and a push on Abi which is... in my eyes weak and not good. There is a big part of me wanting to go Bereft -> TSP here.
And then there is Dizzy who is still just not playing the game but never got hard pressure for it except for me and mac, and now mac is dead.
I do not want to go tedxtr today.