The Syndicate

Anyway thanks for that Alison. I will roast on it.

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:32 pmJaggedJimmyJay - if I take a step back and think about it, JJJ hasn't actually done that much solving and there's still the question about him and LC. I'm willing to take a step back on this read b/c I understand that his established solving style is more about coordinating a towncore than just hard reading scum on D1, plus it just makes sense to me to flip LC first and look at the interactions with JJJ after I'm sure of LC's alignment. so this read is sorta in limbo for now. would not put JJJ in my POE until LC flips, but also would not put him in my towncore.

If I'm scum, JJJ is probably ________.

If I'm town, JJJ is probably ________.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:35 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:32 pmJJJ hasn't actually done that much solving

I kek'd

Alison, what is your gameplan to sort out your five null reads (Colin, DrWilgy, Pawnyo, Wisp, and myself)?

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:58 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:56 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:56 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:55 pm Alison has moved *slightly* down for me tbh

why?

She hates angleshooting and what we were doing was fairly close to it

why does that move her down?

ignore this if it will venture back into prohibited territory

I think scumAlison is a bit more likely to venture into that territory either to let town go down a bad path, to not rock the boat, or to seek towncred.

It’s not a read I’d push but it does keep her in POE for me.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:35 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:32 pmJJJ hasn't actually done that much solving

I asked myself who you scumread and can only think of LC and Colin (the latter of which is weak)

Really I think you're way more focused on coordination and POE than actually making a list of the people on the scum team. I understand this is your playstyle which is why I'm not scumreading you for it, and in theory it comes to the same conclusion as straight scumreading people, but it only really bears fruit (ie. identifies the scum team) very late in the game by definition because it involves a slow process of elimination. So obviously as early as N1 I can't say that you've actually tried very hard to pin down the mafia.

Pawn Lelouch wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:02 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:56 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:56 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:55 pm Alison has moved *slightly* down for me tbh

why?

She hates angleshooting and what we were doing was fairly close to it

And you believe that hate is inherently alignment based? Meaning she wouldn't do it as town but would as mafia or 3P?

No, I think she’s somewhat more likely to go along with it as mafia than as town


Nice of you to join us

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:50 pm I think scumAlison is a bit more likely to venture into that territory either to let town go down a bad path, to not rock the boat, or to seek towncred.

It’s not a read I’d push but it does keep her in POE for me.

who is your POE nanook?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:21 pm I have firm confidence in the civilianhood of these players:

Spacedaisy
Wisp
KitsuShel
sabie12
Nanook
Hally

And that's still a decent game state considering our present state of heightened confusion. So let's try to get back to sound hunting as a group; the game doesn't have to become a toilet (not saying it has done that, but we're walking the toilet tightrope). One name I didn't include was Epignosis. I need to review him with fresh eyes.

These names plus Epi for me

With you in my spot obviously

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:50 pm I asked myself who you scumread and can only think of LC and Colin (the latter of which is weak)

Really I think you're way more focused on coordination and POE than actually making a list of the people on the scum team. I understand this is your playstyle which is why I'm not scumreading you for it, and in theory it comes to the same conclusion as straight scumreading people, but it only really bears fruit (ie. identifies the scum team) very late in the game by definition because it involves a slow process of elimination. So obviously as early as N1 I can't say that you've actually tried very hard to pin down the mafia.

You "aren't scumreading me". You don't seem to be town reading me either, if I understand you. Are you saying that at some 310 posts with a novel of data in my ISO, I am flat null (or that reading me independently requires Long Con? Is that what you're saying to me?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:35 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:32 pmJJJ hasn't actually done that much solving

No she’s right jay you’ve basically just sheeped my reads

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:51 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:50 pm I think scumAlison is a bit more likely to venture into that territory either to let town go down a bad path, to not rock the boat, or to seek towncred.

It’s not a read I’d push but it does keep her in POE for me.

who is your POE nanook?

Low POE rn is like

LC/FG/Colin/pawn

High POE is like Tony/alison

Not sure if that breaker makes sense anymore but that’s where I’m at rn

Also solving townies is still solving

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:53 pm No she’s right jay you’ve basically just sheeped my reads

For the sake of thread health I am going to let you believe that.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:56 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:53 pm No she’s right jay you’ve basically just sheeped my reads

For the sake of thread health I am going to let you believe that.

I think we can agree that you haven’t had any original thoughts this game and have in fact just been using more words to repeat what I’ve said

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:52 pm These names plus Epi for me

What's your absolute favorite thing about Epi in this game?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:49 pm Alison, what is your gameplan to sort out your five null reads (Colin, DrWilgy, Pawnyo, Wisp, and myself)?

I assume you will resolve soon after the LC flip. Related to this, and to answer LC's question - I think JJJ looks wolf if LC is wolf because then the melodrama looks like scum theater, but if LC flips town then I am willing to believe he was just tunnelled, in which case in a vacuum JJJ looks town for the coordination and attempt to form a towncore.

I think Wilgy and Colin give the sense that they are still struggling to find their footing in this game. Nanook wants to whack the lurkers but I think inactivity is generally NAI at least at this phase of the game and in this context, and I'm willing to give them time and space to generate alignment-indicative content. If it's been another day phase and they still do nothing then they can go on the chopping block.

Pawn is already getting into the game and I fully expect to see more content from them soon that I can engage with. I don't really think they'll remain null for that much longer one way or another tbh.

I think Wisp is just a difficult person for me to read because they habitually do many things that are considered scummy every game. My plan for Wisp is some combination of the following three ideas:

- Sort everyone else, deduce Wisp's alignment by POE
- Let someone who I trust and who can sort Wisp better than me (nanook?) sort Wisp for me.
- Look at associatives with flipped players to see if I can sort them better that way.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:53 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:50 pm I asked myself who you scumread and can only think of LC and Colin (the latter of which is weak)

Really I think you're way more focused on coordination and POE than actually making a list of the people on the scum team. I understand this is your playstyle which is why I'm not scumreading you for it, and in theory it comes to the same conclusion as straight scumreading people, but it only really bears fruit (ie. identifies the scum team) very late in the game by definition because it involves a slow process of elimination. So obviously as early as N1 I can't say that you've actually tried very hard to pin down the mafia.

You "aren't scumreading me". You don't seem to be town reading me either, if I understand you. Are you saying that at some 310 posts with a novel of data in my ISO, I am flat null (or that reading me independently requires Long Con? Is that what you're saying to me?

I'm saying that if LC's thing with you didn't exist in the game, I would read you as town. But LC's thing does exist, so I read you as scum with LC. But I can't be sure LC himself is scum (although I think the probability is high), so it makes sense to me to sort LC first and then look at his associatives with you with a fresh eye. My read on you is not "null". It is "in limbo while LC is alive".

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:56 pm Also solving townies is still solving

We have a different definition of solving but just to clarify, I refer to gamesolving as "trying to figure out the identities of the mafia". To me that is town's win condition, and the game is considered solved when we fulfil it. Figuring out who town is can help with that to some extent, but it hasn't actually borne fruit yet and probably won't until Day 6 or whatever given the slow-burn POE strategy JJJ is employing. So I can't actually say that JJJ has tried to solve anything yet.

However, this seems like an extremely pointless semantics debate and I really think it's clear exactly what I meant by the comment that JJJ hasn't done that much solving. If you want to engage with me on that point, that is the meaning I use.

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:01 pm I'm saying that if LC's thing with you didn't exist in the game, I would read you as town. But LC's thing does exist, so I read you as scum with LC. But I can't be sure LC himself is scum (although I think the probability is high), so it makes sense to me to sort LC first and then look at his associatives with you with a fresh eye. My read on you is not "null". It is "in limbo while LC is alive".

I don't get the impression you're trying to develop a read on me, and instead you're just saddling responsibility for my alignment on Long Con. Worse, you're hinging that association on one outburst made by one person. If Long Con is a mafioso, then you are playing directly into his hands by allowing what was his exclusively his own behavior to dictate your read on me. What do you think of the rest of the interaction between Long Con and I?

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:55 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:51 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:50 pm I think scumAlison is a bit more likely to venture into that territory either to let town go down a bad path, to not rock the boat, or to seek towncred.

It’s not a read I’d push but it does keep her in POE for me.

who is your POE nanook?

Low POE rn is like

LC/FG/Colin/pawn

High POE is like Tony/alison

Not sure if that breaker makes sense anymore but that’s where I’m at rn

considering me more scummy than wilgy or wisp seems like a weird read to me but I won't object if it helps me live through the night

POE is not "slow burn". POE murders mafia on Days 1 all the time.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:58 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:52 pm These names plus Epi for me

What's your absolute favorite thing about Epi in this game?

Unquantifiable presence

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:07 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:58 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:52 pm These names plus Epi for me

What's your absolute favorite thing about Epi in this game?

Unquantifiable presence

Epi should start a cologne brand in this name

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:04 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:56 pm Also solving townies is still solving

We have a different definition of solving but just to clarify, I refer to gamesolving as "trying to figure out the identities of the mafia". To me that is town's win condition, and the game is considered solved when we fulfil it. Figuring out who town is can help with that to some extent, but it hasn't actually borne fruit yet and probably won't until Day 6 or whatever given the slow-burn POE strategy JJJ is employing. So I can't actually say that JJJ has tried to solve anything yet.

However, this seems like an extremely pointless semantics debate and I really think it's clear exactly what I meant by the comment that JJJ hasn't done that much solving. If you want to engage with me on that point, that is the meaning I use.

I mean, a POE of five you’d expect to hit mafia no later than D3 right?

The rest is theory discussion I’m not present enough to engage in rn

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:05 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:01 pm I'm saying that if LC's thing with you didn't exist in the game, I would read you as town. But LC's thing does exist, so I read you as scum with LC. But I can't be sure LC himself is scum (although I think the probability is high), so it makes sense to me to sort LC first and then look at his associatives with you with a fresh eye. My read on you is not "null". It is "in limbo while LC is alive".

I don't get the impression you're trying to develop a read on me, and instead you're just saddling responsibility for my alignment on Long Con. Worse, you're hinging that association on one outburst made by one person. If Long Con is a mafioso, then you are playing directly into his hands by allowing what was his exclusively his own behavior to dictate your read on me. What do you think of the rest of the interaction between Long Con and I?

I have no reason to develop a read on you because I really just think you'll self resolve once LC flips. Even if you disagree with this I think it makes total sense for me to come back and think about your alignment after I know LC's alignment and can read your interactions with that knowledge, rather than thinking "what does this mean if LC is town? and what does it mean if LC is scum" for every word he and you write. I just have no interest in you right now sorry.

I doubt wolf!LC intended to get themselves killed and flipped. It's possible they came at you in a very "bussy" way to cast shade on you if they ever flipped but this seems like drawing attention to themselves for no reason. At any rate even if that's the case I'm not just going to hard tunnel you the moment LC flips wolf, I'm going to actually go through your interactions and re-read them and think about what alignment you are. So unless LC's plan was for me to read the game and think about what alignment you are then I doubt I'm playing into his hands.

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:05 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:55 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:51 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:50 pm I think scumAlison is a bit more likely to venture into that territory either to let town go down a bad path, to not rock the boat, or to seek towncred.

It’s not a read I’d push but it does keep her in POE for me.

who is your POE nanook?

Low POE rn is like

LC/FG/Colin/pawn

High POE is like Tony/alison

Not sure if that breaker makes sense anymore but that’s where I’m at rn

considering me more scummy than wilgy or wisp seems like a weird read to me but I won't object if it helps me live through the night

Tbh I forgot wilgy existed, he can go in the low POE

I have a strong TR on wisp and have since very early that one probably shouldn’t surprise you lol

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:10 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:05 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:01 pm I'm saying that if LC's thing with you didn't exist in the game, I would read you as town. But LC's thing does exist, so I read you as scum with LC. But I can't be sure LC himself is scum (although I think the probability is high), so it makes sense to me to sort LC first and then look at his associatives with you with a fresh eye. My read on you is not "null". It is "in limbo while LC is alive".

I don't get the impression you're trying to develop a read on me, and instead you're just saddling responsibility for my alignment on Long Con. Worse, you're hinging that association on one outburst made by one person. If Long Con is a mafioso, then you are playing directly into his hands by allowing what was his exclusively his own behavior to dictate your read on me. What do you think of the rest of the interaction between Long Con and I?

I have no reason to develop a read on you because I really just think you'll self resolve once LC flips. Even if you disagree with this I think it makes total sense for me to come back and think about your alignment after I know LC's alignment and can read your interactions with that knowledge, rather than thinking "what does this mean if LC is town? and what does it mean if LC is scum" for every word he and you write. I just have no interest in you right now sorry.

I doubt wolf!LC intended to get themselves killed and flipped. It's possible they came at you in a very "bussy" way to cast shade on you if they ever flipped but this seems like drawing attention to themselves for no reason. At any rate even if that's the case I'm not just going to hard tunnel you the moment LC flips wolf, I'm going to actually go through your interactions and re-read them and think about what alignment you are. So unless LC's plan was for me to read the game and think about what alignment you are then I doubt I'm playing into his hands.

Uh, that's exactly what I want you to do.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:06 pm POE is not "slow burn". POE murders mafia on Days 1 all the time.

Let me put it in a simpler manner.

To me, gamesolving = catching and killing scum.

You have been more focused on finding town and building rapport and trust with them than in directly catching and killing scum. This may have the pleasant effect of helping to kill scum, but it is not, by itself, killing scum.

Therefore, when I say, "JJJ is not gamesolving", I mean "JJJ does not have the intent of killing scum right now". In a vacuum this is scummy, because I generally expect townies to try to do both things, not just one.

There are two things that make this not-scummy in the context of this game. Firstly, you have a well-established meta of doing these things as town because you believe it is the best way to play the game. I am uninterested in debating whether it is the best way to play the game in general - the only important thing to me is that you believe it is. Secondly, I believe that this game happens to be particularly well-positioned for your strategy. In other words, focusing primarily on building a towncore is a stronger strategy than usual because the game has a bunch of townie-ish people who all roughly townread each other to some degree or another and a bunch of distrusted people who everyone (more or less) think is sketchy. This means that it is by definition less scummy to focus only on one of the things town should be doing, because that thing happens to be very productive for town this game.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:11 pm Tbh I forgot wilgy existed, he can go in the low POE

I have a strong TR on wisp and have since very early that one probably shouldn’t surprise you lol

So my understanding (correct me if I am wrong) is that you townread Wisp because he's adhering to his town meta. Presumably you think the probability of Wisp replicating this meta as scum knowing that you are in the game is low. Why? Is his scumrange small?

As I scour Epi's posts, the easiest case I can find for his being a mafioso is as Nanook's teammate.

That's a good thing. Nanook is a civilian.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:15 pm Uh, that's exactly what I want you to do.

I mean, JJJ was saying "if LC is a mafioso you are playing into his hands by jumping to conclusions". I responded by saying "I don't intend to jump to conclusions. My read is W/W if LC is W, but I'm not going to just lock a vote on you and vanish. I'm actually going to read and think about the interactions with my new knowledge - so I can't be playing into scum LC's hands."

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:20 pm As I scour Epi's posts, the easiest case I can find for his being a mafioso is as Nanook's teammate.

That's a good thing. Nanook is a civilian.

I don't think Epi/nanook is the team if Epi is mafia, no. I don't understand why Epi can't be mafia with people that aren't nanook though.

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:23 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:20 pm As I scour Epi's posts, the easiest case I can find for his being a mafioso is as Nanook's teammate.

That's a good thing. Nanook is a civilian.

I don't think Epi/nanook is the team if Epi is mafia, no. I don't understand why Epi can't be mafia with people that aren't nanook though.

He "can" in that the word "can" refers to all of the things in the universe that are "possible". I mean that Nanook was the most visible connection that appeared compatible, and given that I don't think Nanook is a mafioso this reflects well on Epignosis. If time permits tonight I may expand my previous blind interactions to account for everyone else including Epi.

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:23 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:20 pm As I scour Epi's posts, the easiest case I can find for his being a mafioso is as Nanook's teammate.

That's a good thing. Nanook is a civilian.

I don't think Epi/nanook is the team if Epi is mafia, no. I don't understand why Epi can't be mafia with people that aren't nanook though.

Like he really has done nothing if you look at his posts. IMO if you're going to jam people who've done nothing into your POE (which is fine given the state of the game), you should also not TR Epi this hard.

Maybe I skimmed over a page where Epi did some serious gamesolving? Feel free to highlight it to me if you feel that's the case.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:26 pm

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:25 am1. @JaggedJimmyJay Did you not notice the date on the video? I feel fairly certain the title means nothing, only the fact that it was Jack Sparrow and he escaped, as FG did. Also feel mildly weirded out by the fact you made so much of that title. If Jack had loaded that video for this game, I'd be down to believe it, but no.

The video is probably meaningless.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:25 am5. I have asked a few times and I don't recall getting a good answer, but then we are 40 pages deep and maybe I just don't remember it, can someone who suspects TSP give me an explanation because I am seeing town all over him personally.

My perspective on Tony is a bit torn, in that he has made a wealth of posts and in objective terms seems to fit a town "archetype". I just haven't felt something from his posts. My town balls have not tingled. I need to secure my own read here, so thanks for the reminder.

Thank you for at least answering me. I'm starting to feel like all everyone wants to do is read over my posts and ignore them even when I ask direct questions, then later say I'm basically no content and they just read me town because I sound sincere...

I agree that the video is probably meaningless, I was concerned why you were looking at it so closely as if it weren't.

Regarding TSP, glad I could help. Look forward to hearing your results.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:25 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:23 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:20 pm As I scour Epi's posts, the easiest case I can find for his being a mafioso is as Nanook's teammate.

That's a good thing. Nanook is a civilian.

I don't think Epi/nanook is the team if Epi is mafia, no. I don't understand why Epi can't be mafia with people that aren't nanook though.

He "can" in that the word "can" refers to all of the things in the universe that are "possible". I mean that Nanook was the most visible connection that appeared compatible, and given that I don't think Nanook is a mafioso this reflects well on Epignosis. If time permits tonight I may expand my previous blind interactions to account for everyone else including Epi.

seems weird to scumread me for my "associative" reads and then go "epi is probably town because the most likely scum buddy for epi to have is nanook and nanook is town"

but also this logic doesn't even make sense. Like let's say we think that Epi has 20% chance to be partnered with nanook if he is indeed scum and 15% chance to be partnered with the next-highest percent. Why can't we be living in that 15% world? It's not that unlikely. For the chances of Epi/nanook not being the case to significantly affect your read on Epi, you have to really be sure that Epi is very likely to be scum with nanook if he is scum. Like 60/20 instead of 20/15. Then maybe it makes sense.

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:19 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:11 pm Tbh I forgot wilgy existed, he can go in the low POE

I have a strong TR on wisp and have since very early that one probably shouldn’t surprise you lol

So my understanding (correct me if I am wrong) is that you townread Wisp because he's adhering to his town meta. Presumably you think the probability of Wisp replicating this meta as scum knowing that you are in the game is low. Why? Is his scumrange small?

There’s a chance he is, sure. 95% of the time his alignment is fairly obvious, especially when he’s town, so I’m not really interested in chasing that 5% at this point.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:27 pm Thank you for at least answering me. I'm starting to feel like all everyone wants to do is read over my posts and ignore them even when I ask direct questions, then later say I'm basically no content and they just read me town because I sound sincere...

Some of us are being loudmouths, and the flow of post traffic tends to move with a certain momentum that can leave specific questions/users/posts behind unintentionally. You're within your rights to demand answers; indeed, please kick us all in our genitals if we fail to do that.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:27 pmI agree that the video is probably meaningless, I was concerned why you were looking at it so closely as if it weren't.

Wishful thinking stemming from my limited HCRealms (home of Jackofhearts2005) experience. Sometimes their host flavor actually reveals something about the game (kinda like G-Man's games here), so I figured I'd at least explore it.

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:04 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:56 pm Also solving townies is still solving

We have a different definition of solving but just to clarify, I refer to gamesolving as "trying to figure out the identities of the mafia". To me that is town's win condition, and the game is considered solved when we fulfil it. Figuring out who town is can help with that to some extent, but it hasn't actually borne fruit yet and probably won't until Day 6 or whatever given the slow-burn POE strategy JJJ is employing. So I can't actually say that JJJ has tried to solve anything yet.

However, this seems like an extremely pointless semantics debate and I really think it's clear exactly what I meant by the comment that JJJ hasn't done that much solving. If you want to engage with me on that point, that is the meaning I use.

i mean, like

if jay identifies all the town in the game he will, in effect, have identified all the scum

its still solving, just in a different way

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:31 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:19 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:11 pm Tbh I forgot wilgy existed, he can go in the low POE

I have a strong TR on wisp and have since very early that one probably shouldn’t surprise you lol

So my understanding (correct me if I am wrong) is that you townread Wisp because he's adhering to his town meta. Presumably you think the probability of Wisp replicating this meta as scum knowing that you are in the game is low. Why? Is his scumrange small?

There’s a chance he is, sure. 95% of the time his alignment is fairly obvious, especially when he’s town, so I’m not really interested in chasing that 5% at this point.

oh ok, you think Wisp is just the kind of player who is always obvtown when he's town and obvscum when he's scum and you think he's obvtown right now based on what you know about him

This may be a difficult thing to grasp and I understand that it can be counterintuitive but I have very little interest in reading most people off “have they contributed something.” A lot of people don’t really contribute much and yet are easy townreads, that’s all I really care about tbh

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:32 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:31 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:19 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:11 pm Tbh I forgot wilgy existed, he can go in the low POE

I have a strong TR on wisp and have since very early that one probably shouldn’t surprise you lol

So my understanding (correct me if I am wrong) is that you townread Wisp because he's adhering to his town meta. Presumably you think the probability of Wisp replicating this meta as scum knowing that you are in the game is low. Why? Is his scumrange small?

There’s a chance he is, sure. 95% of the time his alignment is fairly obvious, especially when he’s town, so I’m not really interested in chasing that 5% at this point.

oh ok, you think Wisp is just the kind of player who is always obvtown when he's town and obvscum when he's scum and you think he's obvtown right now based on what you know about him

I think he’s a relatively easy townread in a large majority of his town games yeah

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:29 pm seems weird to scumread me for my "associative" reads and then go "epi is probably town because the most likely scum buddy for epi to have is nanook and nanook is town"

Hypocrisy is a staple of the civilian playbook.

I have made numerous associative reads. I literally charted them. I may use them a bit differently than you do, however. I use them as a part of the POE process (at least when they precede flips). Determining what teams don't work helps to eliminate suspects.

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:29 pmbut also this logic doesn't even make sense. Like let's say we think that Epi has 20% chance to be partnered with nanook if he is indeed scum and 15% chance to be partnered with the next-highest percent. Why can't we be living in that 15% world? It's not that unlikely. For the chances of Epi/nanook not being the case to significantly affect your read on Epi, you have to really be sure that Epi is very likely to be scum with nanook if he is scum. Like 60/20 instead of 20/15. Then maybe it makes sense.

I don't stick these meaningless numbers on my reads. I said it's nice for Epi, and it is (to whatever degree you wish to describe it as "nice"). It doesn't clear Epi or mean that I'm finished assessing Epi. It's a single data point that I extracted in a review and posted. It was the most visible. There may be other connections of interest to uncover, but they're going to require a more dedicated analytic approach. I did not notice them in a general ISO scan. I have a very specific methodology for looking into two-way pairings as a deliberate motion. When I do so for Epi, we'll see what I find.

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:32 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:04 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:56 pm Also solving townies is still solving

We have a different definition of solving but just to clarify, I refer to gamesolving as "trying to figure out the identities of the mafia". To me that is town's win condition, and the game is considered solved when we fulfil it. Figuring out who town is can help with that to some extent, but it hasn't actually borne fruit yet and probably won't until Day 6 or whatever given the slow-burn POE strategy JJJ is employing. So I can't actually say that JJJ has tried to solve anything yet.

However, this seems like an extremely pointless semantics debate and I really think it's clear exactly what I meant by the comment that JJJ hasn't done that much solving. If you want to engage with me on that point, that is the meaning I use.

i mean, like

if jay identifies all the town in the game he will, in effect, have identified all the scum

its still solving, just in a different way

This is why I didn't really want to get into a semantic debate.

There are big differences beween the two approaches, such as affecting scum team dynamics, and reads you can get off flipped scum. But more importantly the POE approach could take a few days to bear fruit, which means it takes a while for the person conducting that approach to use it to show how town they are, which is the most relevant bit here. If I can make a case on someone and show that they are scum right now, that gives me towncred if my reasons are good and more towncred if they actually flip scum. If all I can show is that scum lies within [A/B/C/D], that gives me less towncred because it takes me a much longer time to see results and to "verify" your work, so to speak. Obviously if you give good reasons that helps a lot and it's why I think JJJ looks townie in a vacuum but generally speaking I give more towncred to a good scumread than a good townread because it's more difficult to make the former than the latter, and so if you only make townreads it will be slightly harder to receive large amounts of towncred from me.

I hope this theory discussion makes my position on JJJ clear

This is a pretty self centered view but I’m perfectly fine with a gamestate of “nanook and jay figure out alignments and determine kill pools and I don’t care what anyone else does as long as they follow our kill pools”

I get that’s not exactly the fun way to play but I think it wins more games than it loses

Inb4 “what if he’s pocketing you tho”

Then I’ll catch him at f3

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:37 pm This is a pretty self centered view but I’m perfectly fine with a gamestate of “nanook and jay figure out alignments and determine kill pools and I don’t care what anyone else does as long as they follow our kill pools”

I get that’s not exactly the fun way to play but I think it wins more games than it loses

I think the general approach is sound. I want to ensure it's clear though that it's not a two-person train. Numerous town reads are playing their butts off and driving this core such as but not limited to Hally (I know you don't mean to suggest otherwise Nanook -- I just want folks to know they're a part of this).

if i try some tiers im maybe here... ish? i think

jay
nanook
wisp

sabie
daisy
kitsu

epi
alison
tony

fg
lc
pawn
colin
wilgy

tiers not ordered. id say this is a rough approximation of where im at?

meh, whatever here you go

Man I wish y'all would chill... I am trying to focus on something else right now, and night phase is supposed to be for sleeping and recuperating!