Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
Hello Town.trans rights wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:55 pm honestly not exactly sure why mist v read mana. i mean i kinda see it in glimpses? but i find them mildly wolfy with some posts that are just blatantly bad.
I don't think forced loverizer is either wolf or villager by default, I'm wolfreading it off the target, not the role itself.Bottom Text wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:52 pmwhy is it a wolf role, minus the bad target
if they were looking to use it to strongman the towncore why target hyena and not you
Also, what would your reasons for us being one of the more likely people getting NKed last night? Weren't you one of the people D1 saying that YOUR HYDRA was probably one of the more likely to die N1 just for the potential of becoming obvtown later in the game?Timsup2gettinserious wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:55 pmAlright, alright. Urist told me in our chat though that he thought there were others that were more likely to be NK'd over me. He didn't tell me who or why they were more likely to die over me, but it sounded like he had reasons? I'd want to hear them before allowing you guys to kill the both of us.Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:53 pmThe way I see it is that there are three things loverizer does.Timsup2gettinserious wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:50 pmI'm kinda nervous about how eager you are to call H&V wolf. :S I'm still unsure of it myself, even if I fully agree with you that their decision to loverize us is suspicious. The reason I wanted to do it was because Mac gave a 4-person PoE that included me AND H&V in it, and that if both of us did end up V/V, then he's probably full of shit and maybe mafia.Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:47 pm The question of why you would ever use your loverizer ability like this as town still points to H&V as a wolf regardless of rolecop whatever though. They can be a wolf that blind guessed Poop's flavor too.
a) If someone else dies, you also die.
b) If you die, someone else also dies.
c) You get to chat with someone else behind the scenes.
a) is obviously pure downside. Therefore when choosing a loverizer target you'd pick either b) or c). If it's b) then you'd pick a scumread, so picking you doesn't make sense. If it's c) then you'd pick a townread, but a townread that is unlikely to get shot in the night due to a). In that scenario picking you doesn't make sense either.
That's why I have a hard time seeing the loverizer action as coming from town.
why? if h&v is a wolf wolves already know the loverize happened and the loverizer itself seems blatantly anti-town.Bottom Text wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:56 pm ngl i think outting that you were loverized was terrible play especially given the gamestate but whatever
Didn’t he claim RoleCop on you and he proved to be lovers with Tim?Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:56 pmHe claimed 0Toopy and Binoo wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:54 pmI’d stab him here because he claimed 2 actions.Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:53 pm Even if H&V's a wolf we don't stab him here in case there's some anti-lover role.
And again all the "but why would scum" questions are meet with significantly stronger "but why would town" questions.
I gave them a townread, too, though?Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:57 pm In fact I gave H&V a strong townread D1 so if H&V is mafia loverizer they would almost certainly prefer to use their ability to kill Hyena and not me.
No I haven't softed anythingToopy and Binoo wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:55 pmOh right.
You were softing Detection Immune yeah?
please don't insult mist's capabilities, thank you.Toopy and Binoo wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:56 pmHello Town.trans rights wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:55 pm honestly not exactly sure why mist v read mana. i mean i kinda see it in glimpses? but i find them mildly wolfy with some posts that are just blatantly bad.
You know Mist usually has bad reads right?
Not to mention both of them is my PoE and getting rid of both would help allot!Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:57 pm In fact I gave H&V a strong townread D1 so if H&V is mafia loverizer they would almost certainly prefer to use their ability to kill Hyena and not me.
That's what I was afraid of. :< I'm terrible at mechanics and understand when to claim and when not to.Bottom Text wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:56 pm ngl i think outting that you were loverized was terrible play especially given the gamestate but whatever
shrugzeAkemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:56 pmI don't think forced loverizer is either wolf or villager by default, I'm wolfreading it off the target, not the role itself.Bottom Text wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:52 pmwhy is it a wolf role, minus the bad target
if they were looking to use it to strongman the towncore why target hyena and not you
Hyena got more townreads than me D1 but they could also have been given strongman priority because they were more correct D1.
because there's decent odds i get shrugyeeted today since lolmech and if they're v/v then it's free doublekill for mafia tonight when it was completely unnecessary to paint that targettrans rights wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:57 pmwhy? if h&v is a wolf wolves already know the loverize happened and the loverizer itself seems blatantly anti-town.Bottom Text wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:56 pm ngl i think outting that you were loverized was terrible play especially given the gamestate but whatever
I’m saying it’s that they aren’t trusted reads so it’s better to follow your own!trans rights wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:58 pmplease don't insult mist's capabilities, thank you.Toopy and Binoo wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:56 pmHello Town.trans rights wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:55 pm honestly not exactly sure why mist v read mana. i mean i kinda see it in glimpses? but i find them mildly wolfy with some posts that are just blatantly bad.
You know Mist usually has bad reads right?
Wait, I was more correct D1 than you? How?Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:56 pmI don't think forced loverizer is either wolf or villager by default, I'm wolfreading it off the target, not the role itself.Bottom Text wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:52 pmwhy is it a wolf role, minus the bad target
if they were looking to use it to strongman the towncore why target hyena and not you
Hyena got more townreads than me D1 but they could also have been given strongman priority because they were more correct D1.
I mean, he softed rolecop on me, and he's now confirmed lovers with Hyena/Sun, but he claimed neither.Toopy and Binoo wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:57 pmDidn’t he claim RoleCop on you and he proved to be lovers with Tim?Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:56 pmHe claimed 0Toopy and Binoo wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:54 pmI’d stab him here because he claimed 2 actions.Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:53 pm Even if H&V's a wolf we don't stab him here in case there's some anti-lover role.
And again all the "but why would scum" questions are meet with significantly stronger "but why would town" questions.
I don't think you were a super likely NK last night with an outed vig on the table regardless, and I agree that my slot and trans rights both have higher NK equity than yours. The point is not "you are going to die N1". The question is whether you're going to die at all. If you're using it as a neighborizer, you'd want to use it on someone who's both town and likely to survive to the end of the game, so you avoid giving mafia a free KP. This is awkward since you never know when the townie you put your ability on claims super cop or something, which is why I prefer to use this kind of role as a vigilante shot. But regardless if you were trying to find a townie that has low NK equity you'd probably look at people like julinooks or FalconKnows, not your slot.Timsup2gettinserious wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:56 pm Also, what would your reasons for us being one of the more likely people getting NKed last night? Weren't you one of the people D1 saying that YOUR HYDRA was probably one of the more likely to die N1 just for the potential of becoming obvtown later in the game?
Cause scum targeted you.Timsup2gettinserious wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 11:00 pmWait, I was more correct D1 than you? How?Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:56 pmI don't think forced loverizer is either wolf or villager by default, I'm wolfreading it off the target, not the role itself.Bottom Text wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:52 pmwhy is it a wolf role, minus the bad target
if they were looking to use it to strongman the towncore why target hyena and not you
Hyena got more townreads than me D1 but they could also have been given strongman priority because they were more correct D1.
just stop talking to mist or i regarding this because i don't have the patience for this.Toopy and Binoo wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:59 pmI’m saying it’s that they aren’t trusted reads so it’s better to follow your own!trans rights wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:58 pmplease don't insult mist's capabilities, thank you.Toopy and Binoo wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:56 pmHello Town.trans rights wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:55 pm honestly not exactly sure why mist v read mana. i mean i kinda see it in glimpses? but i find them mildly wolfy with some posts that are just blatantly bad.
You know Mist usually has bad reads right?
-Toopy
He big bad Wolf!Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 11:00 pmI mean, he softed rolecop on me, and he's now confirmed lovers with Hyena/Sun, but he claimed neither.Toopy and Binoo wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:57 pmDidn’t he claim RoleCop on you and he proved to be lovers with Tim?Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:56 pmHe claimed 0Toopy and Binoo wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:54 pmI’d stab him here because he claimed 2 actions.Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:53 pm Even if H&V's a wolf we don't stab him here in case there's some anti-lover role.
And again all the "but why would scum" questions are meet with significantly stronger "but why would town" questions.
Maybe 22% but I’ll move on from this!Toopy and Binoo wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 11:00 pm Mist’s reads are 29% accurate.
Which is not that great.
-Toopy
I'm not saying that, I'm saying "killed for reads" is one possible explanation for you being the strongman target over me.
Yeah I'm probably going to stop posting tonight for postcap as well.trans rights wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 11:04 pm we're going to stop posting tonight for postcap reasons
i'll talk to mist about mana
Okay, okay, this makes a little more sense. At the same time though, it didn't feel like Urist fully trusted us? Like, as I had mentioned, he wouldn't explain who they thought were more likely NK targets or why they had gone for me or others. Thus, I don't even know HOW much they townread us really. All they said is that they townread us and that they thought we were unlikely to eat a NK.Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 11:00 pmI don't think you were a super likely NK last night with an outed vig on the table regardless, and I agree that my slot and trans rights both have higher NK equity than yours. The point is not "you are going to die N1". The question is whether you're going to die at all. If you're using it as a neighborizer, you'd want to use it on someone who's both town and likely to survive to the end of the game, so you avoid giving mafia a free KP. This is awkward since you never know when the townie you put your ability on claims super cop or something, which is why I prefer to use this kind of role as a vigilante shot. But regardless if you were trying to find a townie that has low NK equity you'd probably look at people like julinooks or FalconKnows, not your slot.Timsup2gettinserious wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:56 pm Also, what would your reasons for us being one of the more likely people getting NKed last night? Weren't you one of the people D1 saying that YOUR HYDRA was probably one of the more likely to die N1 just for the potential of becoming obvtown later in the game?
Yeah, I think this will help me process everything, too.Akemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 11:04 pm We are talking in circles. I just want to hear H&V's full claim and explanation for their loverizer target at this point.
@Honey & Vinegar
what the fuck is thisToopy and Binoo wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:55 pmOh right.
You were softing Detection Immune yeah?
yeah i kinda agreeBottom Text wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:56 pm ngl i think outting that you were loverized was terrible play especially given the gamestate but whatever
That's... possibly even worse, no? If the game goes badly, and three people get NKed before Hyena, we could possibly be in FX by the time Hyena's "turn" to be NKed comes up. T/T lovers are a massive liability in endgame. If you reveal that lovers exist earlier than that, then Hyena jumps to the front of the NK circuit anyway, if you keep lovers' existence a secret, and Hyena gets shot near FX, we could potentially lose the game without even realizing we were in danger.Timsup2gettinserious wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 11:11 pm fwiw, urist's explanation was that there are at least three other slots ahead of us on the nk circuit
i have a low opinion of myself and no meta on hyena so dunno how sound that is
oh my godToopy and Binoo wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:22 pmYep!The Walrus wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 4:46 pmWe don’t believe your role claim. We know you are lying.Timsup2gettinserious wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 4:42 pmDon't worry. I'm shooting them tonight.TwoAndThrough wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 4:42 pm Both heads of the Walrus making time to converse with each other in thread and doing nothing but whine about post counts while padding theirs is really aggravating.
I’m changing the vote to Tim!
-Toopy
no don't do thisAkemi Hazelnut wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:33 pm Anyway I'm just going to vote BT since trans rights has claimed that she doesn't believe her role, Poop's and BT's can coexist.
[VOTE: Bottom Text] aubergine
i have no clue i'm letting alison figure it out tbh
Wouldn't a town loveriser target someone they thought was mafia?Timsup2gettinserious wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:35 pmSo, I talked to Syn, and he's okay with me revealing what happened to us last night.Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:16 pm BT's 4 voters - Akemi Hazelnut, Mana, trans rights, TwoAndThrough
Mana's 3 voters - Julinook, TonyStarkPlaysItCool, Poop Explosions
TwoAndThrough's 4 voters - Timsup2gettinserious, Toopy and Binoo, Honey & Vinegar, Bottom Text
TSPIC voter - The Walrus
No voters - Falcon
Hmmm. The Walrus then dies? Only voter on the TSPIC wagon. Probably never a wolf kill they would make it's too obvious.
Mana wagon is very pure.
But Mana is voting for BT in a tie. If Mana wagon is pure >rand wolf and that means their vote is >rand on a town.
So if Mana is a wolf, and TAT WAS a wolf, then the other teammate is probably either trans rights or Akemi Hazelnut, or an absent FalconKnows I guess?
But Akemi Hazelnut is currently operating inside that very POE so it's almost certainly not them. Trans Rights also playing the POE game in a tight window.
Makes me think TAT is always a wolf. Which strongly clears all the TAT voters. But then why did none of them die? Why kill The Walrus? Perhaps @Bottom Text did you actually get an action in?
Doesn't QUITE stack up. So what if TAT AND BT are both town. The janitoring might be a passive (no flips til you die) wolf role maybe.
Mana wolf equity is through the roof no matter what. I take TSPIC and Julinook as town for it. I take the kill as pure wifom. I take the mafia teammates of mana to be probably Falcon and ONE active wolf in this case.
I think this makes the most sense. Falcon + someone getting more townreads, that isn't on the Mana wagon. I feel like ... Timsup2gettingserious profiles.
H&V loverized us last night. We've got a lover chat with them right now. I've been going back and forth whether I fully trust them or not because I don't understand why they thought we wouldn't be considered a potential NK after the amount of townreads we got D1?
truePoop Explosions wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:53 pm Even if H&V's a wolf we don't stab him here in case there's some anti-lover role.
And again all the "but why would scum" questions are meet with significantly stronger "but why would town" questions.
i legit was wondering whether we should just mass claim cuz there's no anticlaim lol
Yeah, this is also a misplay either way. Using the "which misplay is more likely" hypothetical, it's more likely scum would say nothing for fear their claim would be disproven and town gets spew off their flip, than that town just forgot to communicate their role in the heat of the moment or confusion.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 1:04 am The funny thing is if Tim/HK were wolves they’d also be best off claiming some town role to the medium
I haven't caught up but we were a one-shot watcher and our watching failed last night (im assuming due to the redirect thing?)Poop Explosions wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 12:15 am I am at the point where I just wanna sleepwalk flip mana
@Mana claim lol