The Syndicate

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:56 pm**

Technically the Spy can check Marmot to confirm.

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:56 pm**

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:30 pm
Gavial wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:27 pm Exactly when I have vigilante (or at least a normal one) I don’t go by what another person says I don’t get manipulated the only allowed to manipulate me is myself so that’s why I make my own decisions under my own discretion.

You better be right then.

Oh I hope so.

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:58 pm**

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:43 pm Just finished reading that Akemi game and Gavial's play there is identical here.

Meta wins

[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:45 pm Figuring out if Gavial was TWTBW or actual scum was tough work, holy shit.

No see this is where Mac went wrong.
He’s basing my entire meta off of that game instead of all my games or majority of them.

Please play optimal here, we kill a roleblocked player today (Jack or Nanook) or we just suffer like hell late game.

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:00 pm**

If I didn’t wanna play optimal and was super determined to just kill off the most likely mafia to me I’d be voting Falcon Rn.

But I’m killing off a likely mafia that can be an easy ML for scum of town later down the line if kept alive instead today.

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:04 pm**

Gavial wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:00 pm If I didn’t wanna play optimal and was super determined to just kill off the most likely mafia to me I’d be voting Falcon Rn.

But I’m killing off a likely mafia that can be an easy ML for scum of town later down the line if kept alive instead today.

You've made some noise about shooting Marmot, correct? Have you claimed a role? If so, I missed it

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:09 pm**

Gavial wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:58 pm
Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:43 pm Just finished reading that Akemi game and Gavial's play there is identical here.

Meta wins

[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:45 pm Figuring out if Gavial was TWTBW or actual scum was tough work, holy shit.
No see this is where Mac went wrong.
He’s basing my entire meta off of that game instead of all my games or majority of them.

Please play optimal here, we kill a roleblocked player today (Jack or Nanook) or we just suffer like hell late game.

If we kill Nanook or Jack is not because they were roleblocked and there was no kill because hello! MacDougall is a heavy who used a self save and he could have been the kill that failed if Mac is town.

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:15 pm**

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:09 pm
Gavial wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:58 pm
Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:43 pm Just finished reading that Akemi game and Gavial's play there is identical here.

Meta wins

[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:45 pm Figuring out if Gavial was TWTBW or actual scum was tough work, holy shit.
No see this is where Mac went wrong.
He’s basing my entire meta off of that game instead of all my games or majority of them.

Please play optimal here, we kill a roleblocked player today (Jack or Nanook) or we just suffer like hell late game.
If we kill Nanook or Jack is not because they were roleblocked and there was no kill because hello! MacDougall is a heavy who used a self save and he could have been the kill that failed if Mac is town.

This. Everyone should look for angles to exploit the game's mechanics, but no one should be expecting a mechanical solve this game. There is too much role madness.

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:26 pm**

We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:39 pm**

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:26 pm We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.

My top 3 picks are mac, falcon, Dolby. Do you town read any of these?

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:40 pm**

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:39 pm
Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:26 pm We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.
My top 3 picks are mac, falcon, Dolby. Do you town read any of these?

@Guillotine I ask you because you're voting with two of them, so I'm wondering if it's possible for us to consolidate our position

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:46 pm**

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:40 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:39 pm
Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:26 pm We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.
My top 3 picks are mac, falcon, Dolby. Do you town read any of these?
@Guillotine I ask you because you're voting with two of them, so I'm wondering if it's possible for us to consolidate our position

Are you TR Guillo now?

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:46 pm**

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 3:39 pm Let's just fear-elim jack today so we don't have to deal with him in lylo.

No hard feelings Jack.

[VOTE: JackOfSharts] aubergine

Don’t worry. I’m sticking around and this game isn’t going to lylo.

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:47 pm**

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:46 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:40 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:39 pm
Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:26 pm We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.
My top 3 picks are mac, falcon, Dolby. Do you town read any of these?
@Guillotine I ask you because you're voting with two of them, so I'm wondering if it's possible for us to consolidate our position
Are you TR Guillo now?

At no point in this game did I scum read Guillotine

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:47 pm**

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:26 pm We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.

Peak role madness achieved. Gj @Dragon D. Luffy

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:47 pm**

Oh wait, I put him in a poe d1 didn't I? That was like a week ago, mostly because I didn't want to be wrong on him

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:48 pm**

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:10 pm I need to continue voting Guillo unfortunately.

Do you usually vote people you don't think are Maf?

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:48 pm**

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:48 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:10 pm I need to continue voting Guillo unfortunately.
Do you usually vote people you don't think are Maf?

In a game where votes throw off vig shots, yes.

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:49 pm**

Context matters

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:49 pm**

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:14 pm
Dolby wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:10 pm yo

NAA is on Guillo with exactly 1 vote after Guillo did a certain thing

tbh I think that's greedy town lmao, and I'd discourage him from being on Guillo at Eod
I think Guillo is fake claiming to be honest, but it's not really worth the risk because he's a player who would 100% target me if he has a role, whereas everyone else is a bit more up in the air.

Do you TR Guillo here?

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:50 pm**

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 1:47 pm
Guillotine wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:26 am Im gonna say this. Falcon is treating Gavial like a bad townie, not like scum.
Agreed. Scumread feels fake.

Okay, yeah.

Townread Guillo, scumlean Falcon.

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:50 pm**

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:49 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:14 pm
Dolby wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:10 pm yo

NAA is on Guillo with exactly 1 vote after Guillo did a certain thing

tbh I think that's greedy town lmao, and I'd discourage him from being on Guillo at Eod
I think Guillo is fake claiming to be honest, but it's not really worth the risk because he's a player who would 100% target me if he has a role, whereas everyone else is a bit more up in the air.
Do you TR Guillo here?

Yes, the very fact that I'm saying I want to prevent the shot indicates that I think he's town given that I can't prevent a scum shot.

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:51 pm**

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:48 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:48 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:10 pm I need to continue voting Guillo unfortunately.
Do you usually vote people you don't think are Maf?
In a game where votes throw off vig shots, yes.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:49 pm Context matters

Then it really wouldn't be unfortunate that you voted him, would it?

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:51 pm**

Gavial wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:58 pm
Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:43 pm Just finished reading that Akemi game and Gavial's play there is identical here.

Meta wins

[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:45 pm Figuring out if Gavial was TWTBW or actual scum was tough work, holy shit.
No see this is where Mac went wrong.
He’s basing my entire meta off of that game instead of all my games or majority of them.

Please play optimal here, we kill a roleblocked player today (Jack or Nanook) or we just suffer like hell late game.

As far as I can tell there's a 25% chance for a roleblocked player to be mafia* (two blocks and two save claims), thats like...above rand, but not by that much.

*33% from me or Jack's pov

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm**

Gavial wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:21 pm @DrWilgy
@MacDougall
@LinearPoint
@Lime Coke
@Dolby
@NotAnAxehole

I want you 6 to remember something very important.
TSP being Mafia Sniper confirms Falcon as Mafia.

Mphh

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm**

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:51 pm
Gavial wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:58 pm
Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:43 pm Just finished reading that Akemi game and Gavial's play there is identical here.

Meta wins

[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:45 pm Figuring out if Gavial was TWTBW or actual scum was tough work, holy shit.
No see this is where Mac went wrong.
He’s basing my entire meta off of that game instead of all my games or majority of them.

Please play optimal here, we kill a roleblocked player today (Jack or Nanook) or we just suffer like hell late game.
As far as I can tell there's a 25% chance for a roleblocked player to be mafia* (two blocks and two save claims), thats like...above rand, but not by that much.

*33% from me or Jack's pov

This is why you failed statistics.

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm**

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:39 pm
Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:26 pm We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.
My top 3 picks are mac, falcon, Dolby. Do you town read any of these?

What about Mac, Dolby & I's behavior makes you think we're scum?

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm**

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:51 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:48 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:48 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:10 pm I need to continue voting Guillo unfortunately.
Do you usually vote people you don't think are Maf?
In a game where votes throw off vig shots, yes.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:49 pm Context matters
Then it really wouldn't be unfortunate that you voted him, would it?

What

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:54 pm**

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:51 pm
Gavial wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:58 pm
Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:43 pm Just finished reading that Akemi game and Gavial's play there is identical here.

Meta wins

[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:45 pm Figuring out if Gavial was TWTBW or actual scum was tough work, holy shit.
No see this is where Mac went wrong.
He’s basing my entire meta off of that game instead of all my games or majority of them.

Please play optimal here, we kill a roleblocked player today (Jack or Nanook) or we just suffer like hell late game.
As far as I can tell there's a 25% chance for a roleblocked player to be mafia* (two blocks and two save claims), thats like...above rand, but not by that much.

*33% from me or Jack's pov
This is why you failed statistics.

What did I miss

Oh there should be a third potential save out there right

So 20% yeah

Idk im tired maybe I'm doing it wrong

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:54 pm**

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:39 pm
Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:26 pm We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.
My top 3 picks are mac, falcon, Dolby. Do you town read any of these?
What about Mac, Dolby & I's behavior makes you think we're scum?

I thought the message was clear the first time I ignored this question.

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:55 pm**

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:51 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:48 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:48 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:10 pm I need to continue voting Guillo unfortunately.
Do you usually vote people you don't think are Maf?
In a game where votes throw off vig shots, yes.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:49 pm Context matters
Then it really wouldn't be unfortunate that you voted him, would it?
What

You said it was unfortunate you had to vote Guillo...but in so doing, you thought you were saving him from a Vig shot?

Which would mean it is not unfortunate to vote for him?

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:56 pm**

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:54 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:39 pm
Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:26 pm We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.
My top 3 picks are mac, falcon, Dolby. Do you town read any of these?
What about Mac, Dolby & I's behavior makes you think we're scum?
I thought the message was clear the first time I ignored this question.

Nope

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:57 pm**

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:54 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:51 pm
Gavial wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:58 pm
Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:43 pm Just finished reading that Akemi game and Gavial's play there is identical here.

Meta wins

[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:45 pm Figuring out if Gavial was TWTBW or actual scum was tough work, holy shit.
No see this is where Mac went wrong.
He’s basing my entire meta off of that game instead of all my games or majority of them.

Please play optimal here, we kill a roleblocked player today (Jack or Nanook) or we just suffer like hell late game.
As far as I can tell there's a 25% chance for a roleblocked player to be mafia* (two blocks and two save claims), thats like...above rand, but not by that much.

*33% from me or Jack's pov
This is why you failed statistics.
What did I miss

Oh there should be a third potential save out there right

So 20% yeah

Idk im tired maybe I'm doing it wrong

In the event that the medic save stopped the kill, it's 50/50 which save did it...

In the event a block stopped the kill it's 50/50 which did it.

However given that a has no relationship with B, we can't say all of these events have even probability.

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:58 pm**

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:55 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:51 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:48 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:48 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:10 pm I need to continue voting Guillo unfortunately.
Do you usually vote people you don't think are Maf?
In a game where votes throw off vig shots, yes.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:49 pm Context matters
Then it really wouldn't be unfortunate that you voted him, would it?
What
You said it was unfortunate you had to vote Guillo...but in so doing, you thought you were saving him from a Vig shot?

Which would mean it is not unfortunate to vote for him?

No, I voted him under the assumption that he could be a town vigilante, so that he wouldn't be able to shoot.

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:58 pm**

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:54 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:39 pm
Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:26 pm We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.
My top 3 picks are mac, falcon, Dolby. Do you town read any of these?
What about Mac, Dolby & I's behavior makes you think we're scum?
I thought the message was clear the first time I ignored this question.

Vote one of us then. Are you TR LC?

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:59 pm**

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:57 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:54 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:51 pm
Gavial wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:58 pm
Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:43 pm Just finished reading that Akemi game and Gavial's play there is identical here.

Meta wins

[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:45 pm Figuring out if Gavial was TWTBW or actual scum was tough work, holy shit.
No see this is where Mac went wrong.
He’s basing my entire meta off of that game instead of all my games or majority of them.

Please play optimal here, we kill a roleblocked player today (Jack or Nanook) or we just suffer like hell late game.
As far as I can tell there's a 25% chance for a roleblocked player to be mafia* (two blocks and two save claims), thats like...above rand, but not by that much.

*33% from me or Jack's pov
This is why you failed statistics.
What did I miss

Oh there should be a third potential save out there right

So 20% yeah

Idk im tired maybe I'm doing it wrong
In the event that the medic save stopped the kill, it's 50/50 which save did it...

In the event a block stopped the kill it's 50/50 which did it.

However given that a has no relationship with B, we can't say all of these events have even probability.

Can we not say that there were five events which could have stopped a nk, so there's a 1/5 chance of any one of them being the effective one?

As you know I'm awful at math so

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:59 pm**

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:58 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:54 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:39 pm
Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:26 pm We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.
My top 3 picks are mac, falcon, Dolby. Do you town read any of these?
What about Mac, Dolby & I's behavior makes you think we're scum?
I thought the message was clear the first time I ignored this question.
Vote one of us then. Are you TR LC?

I'm sheeping Marmot. Independent thought is game throwing.

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:59 pm**

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:58 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:55 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:51 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:48 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:48 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:10 pm I need to continue voting Guillo unfortunately.
Do you usually vote people you don't think are Maf?
In a game where votes throw off vig shots, yes.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:49 pm Context matters
Then it really wouldn't be unfortunate that you voted him, would it?
What
You said it was unfortunate you had to vote Guillo...but in so doing, you thought you were saving him from a Vig shot?

Which would mean it is not unfortunate to vote for him?
No, I voted him under the assumption that he could be a town vigilante, so that he wouldn't be able to shoot.

You didn't want a Town Vig to have a shot? Catch me up on why

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:00 pm**

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:59 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:58 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:54 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:39 pm
Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:26 pm We should just play Mafia. Behavior trumps mechanics.
My top 3 picks are mac, falcon, Dolby. Do you town read any of these?
What about Mac, Dolby & I's behavior makes you think we're scum?
I thought the message was clear the first time I ignored this question.
Vote one of us then. Are you TR LC?
I'm sheeping Marmot. Independent thought is game throwing.

Then why bother posting at all?

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:03 pm**

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 2:31 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:52 pm
LinearPoint wrote: ↑Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:41 pm I mean legitimately no one town read Dizzy from what I saw.
To be honest I don't really suspect you Jack, more Sig since they seem a bit suspicious and Sabie because that was a very convenient CFD onto a random person I think only really Dolby had been suspecting.
I don’t have a Sabie read. I’ve read like one of her posts.

I don’t think many wolf teams here try to cfd to save Sabie. Maybe they jump on one but I don’t think they start it.

No offense, Sabie.
I kinda think this post is town?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 2:34 am
Dolby wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 4:26 pm Sabie is just w/e, don't think it hits vibe tell

would not vote Gav just for the sheer involvement he has in the game rn

sig exists, the two game I played with him he seemed like a easy misyeet
kinda wanna kill dolby

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 2:35 am
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 4:31 pm I could vote sabie sig or maybe nanook
weird post considering you ended up voting to save sabie

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 2:36 am @falcon45ca @Dolby reads on each other plz

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 2:37 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 2:36 am @falcon45ca @Dolby reads on each other plz
@TonyStarkPrime @Guillotine reads on falcon and Dolby plz.

@LinearPoint @Marmot can you tell me obvious things I should know so I don't tunnel outed town or some dumb shit like that

I think Mac is town, here. This mindset reads like townie Mac.

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:06 pm**

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:59 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:57 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:54 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:51 pm
Gavial wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:58 pm
Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:43 pm Just finished reading that Akemi game and Gavial's play there is identical here.

Meta wins

[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:45 pm Figuring out if Gavial was TWTBW or actual scum was tough work, holy shit.
No see this is where Mac went wrong.
He’s basing my entire meta off of that game instead of all my games or majority of them.

Please play optimal here, we kill a roleblocked player today (Jack or Nanook) or we just suffer like hell late game.
As far as I can tell there's a 25% chance for a roleblocked player to be mafia* (two blocks and two save claims), thats like...above rand, but not by that much.

*33% from me or Jack's pov
This is why you failed statistics.
What did I miss

Oh there should be a third potential save out there right

So 20% yeah

Idk im tired maybe I'm doing it wrong
In the event that the medic save stopped the kill, it's 50/50 which save did it...

In the event a block stopped the kill it's 50/50 which did it.

However given that a has no relationship with B, we can't say all of these events have even probability.
Can we not say that there were five events which could have stopped a nk, so there's a 1/5 chance of any one of them being the effective one?

As you know I'm awful at math so

I'm not actually sure how to quantify it, it's almost certain that a role blocked target has a higher % chance of being mafia... But how much?

So, if we consider every player has an equal probability of being a target, then the probability that a role block blocking the kill is higher... However, if we consider that each player has an equal probability of carrying the kill, then the save has a higher % chance of having stopped the kill

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:06 pm**

Idk I'm confused

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:07 pm**

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:59 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:58 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:55 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:51 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:48 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:48 pm

Do you usually vote people you don't think are Maf?
In a game where votes throw off vig shots, yes.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:49 pm Context matters
Then it really wouldn't be unfortunate that you voted him, would it?
What
You said it was unfortunate you had to vote Guillo...but in so doing, you thought you were saving him from a Vig shot?

Which would mean it is not unfortunate to vote for him?
No, I voted him under the assumption that he could be a town vigilante, so that he wouldn't be able to shoot.
You didn't want a Town Vig to have a shot? Catch me up on why

Because he would shoot me, I thought this was very obvious to everyone.

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:07 pm**

Gavial wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 3:09 am While I’m still almost positive it’s Falcon I’m pretty sure both TSP/Marmot are wolves.

Jfc a wolf Marmot read.

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:11 pm**

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 2:35 am
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 4:31 pm I could vote sabie sig or maybe nanook
weird post considering you ended up voting to save sabie

This was a meme

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:11 pm**

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 2:37 am
MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 2:36 am @falcon45ca @Dolby reads on each other plz
@TonyStarkPrime @Guillotine reads on falcon and Dolby plz.

@LinearPoint @Marmot can you tell me obvious things I should know so I don't tunnel outed town or some dumb shit like that

Falcons lock town and I think Dolby is like my a wolf

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:12 pm**

And by Lock town I mean I’m reading this game approx 60% and I think he’s town but don’t remember anything he’s said since day 1

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:12 pm**

Lime Coke wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 3:40 am @LinearPoint
@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
@falcon45ca
@Dolby
@sig
@TonyStarkPrime

Votes onto JackofHearts he's outed mechanically.

Oh ok

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:12 pm**

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 3:23 am Like if Marmot is not the town watcher, then the real one should just hard claim it as we are in the best position right now we zero deaths last night.

Aren’t there like 2 watchers (and every other role) in the setup anyway?

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:15 pm**

Gavial wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 3:48 pm Or even on me as if TSP is mafia he probably targets me with his sniper since I’m the town variant of him.

Well that’s not why

Posted: **Mon Dec 27, 2021 6:15 pm**

Ok there appear to be some basic setup problems in this thread right now

The Syndicate

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