The Syndicate

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 5:24 pm**

So [mention]Marmot[/mention] , I see you were here but did not answer my question. Did you vote for me because you thought I was trying to steer people away from Jack which is the post you linked or because you thought I was trying to steer people away from my low poster teammate? Why exactly did you vote me? Are you bad?

juliets wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 6:30 am
Marmot wrote: ↑Thu May 10, 2018 8:17 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu May 10, 2018 7:56 pm Lynch Jack, vig INH. IF INH isn't bad, lynch juliets. That's my ideal plan going forward. I think juliets is bad, and maybe trying to steer the vig away from her actual low-poster teammate.
That's the feeling I got too from this post.
@Marmot your link took me to a post I made about Jack. Are you saying it looked like I was steering people away from my teammate Jack?

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 5:55 pm**

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 5:02 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 1:28 pm Your suspicion is understandable, Scotty. Perhaps even correct in part. I don’t suck this bad an expect people to trust me.

You’re wrong about me though. There’s little else I can say. I don’t think you’re bad. I’m lynching literally any no-show. I hardly care which.
Can you just be a sacrifice for the sanity of the townies?

Not via lynch. I don't think I'd be a good vigilante target either with three players alive who should probably be modkilled, but I am not going to throw a fit.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 5:56 pm**

Kylemii wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 4:06 pm @JaggedJimmyJay or whomever is good at math, how far are we away from actual m/lylo?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 1:54 pm There are 8 civilians left, perhaps with kill(s) coming. Worst-case scenario, two civilians die this night phase, and that leaves us in a 6 vs. 4 LyLo. Normally that would be MyLo, but the presence of a vigilante who is obligated to shoot changes that dynamic. If one civilian dies (with or without a mafioso dying as well), then it shouldn't be LyLo -- it'd be one mislynch shy.

A POE pool of 5 must now include all four mafia members to be successful AND they must be lynched in a proper order (if the unlynchable boss gets lynched out of turn, that's a disaster and might lose us the game on its own, which is why I have always hated those roles). It isn't impossible, but it's goddamned difficult.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 6:48 pm**

juliets wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 5:24 pm So @Marmot , I see you were here but did not answer my question. Did you vote for me because you thought I was trying to steer people away from Jack which is the post you linked or because you thought I was trying to steer people away from my low poster teammate? Why exactly did you vote me? Are you bad?

juliets wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 6:30 am
Marmot wrote: ↑Thu May 10, 2018 8:17 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu May 10, 2018 7:56 pm Lynch Jack, vig INH. IF INH isn't bad, lynch juliets. That's my ideal plan going forward. I think juliets is bad, and maybe trying to steer the vig away from her actual low-poster teammate.
That's the feeling I got too from this post.
@Marmot your link took me to a post I made about Jack. Are you saying it looked like I was steering people away from my teammate Jack?

It was actually the next post, where you said that you would have voted inh to give the vig the option to kill him instead.

But I also didn't think Jack was bad, and it sounded like you only voted him because Jay and Mac did too.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 7:07 pm**

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 6:48 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 5:24 pm So @Marmot , I see you were here but did not answer my question. Did you vote for me because you thought I was trying to steer people away from Jack which is the post you linked or because you thought I was trying to steer people away from my low poster teammate? Why exactly did you vote me? Are you bad?

juliets wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 6:30 am
Marmot wrote: ↑Thu May 10, 2018 8:17 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu May 10, 2018 7:56 pm Lynch Jack, vig INH. IF INH isn't bad, lynch juliets. That's my ideal plan going forward. I think juliets is bad, and maybe trying to steer the vig away from her actual low-poster teammate.
That's the feeling I got too from this post.
@Marmot your link took me to a post I made about Jack. Are you saying it looked like I was steering people away from my teammate Jack?

It was actually the next post, where you said that you would have voted inh to give the vig the option to kill him instead.

But I also didn't think Jack was bad, and it sounded like you only voted him because Jay and Mac did too.

No, actually I never voted Jack. When JJJ asked me a question about not voting Jack I told him the only reason for me to consider it was because he and Mac were voting Jack and I didn't think that was a good enough reason. I just never saw the issue with Jack. Thank you for clarifying your post.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 7:21 pm**

Is there anyone you do see an issue with, juliets?

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 7:27 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 7:21 pm Is there anyone you do see an issue with, juliets?

Is it legitimate to talk about who's been online and who hasn't? I definitely think one or more of the low posters is bad.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 7:29 pm**

juliets wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 7:27 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 7:21 pm Is there anyone you do see an issue with, juliets?
Is it legitimate to talk about who's been online and who hasn't? I definitely think one or more of the low posters is bad.

It is absolutely legitimate. Anything at all that leads you to believe someone might be bad should be discussed. We have little left to lose at this point.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 7:33 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 7:29 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 7:27 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 7:21 pm Is there anyone you do see an issue with, juliets?
Is it legitimate to talk about who's been online and who hasn't? I definitely think one or more of the low posters is bad.
It is absolutely legitimate. Anything at all that leads you to believe someone might be bad should be discussed. We have little left to lose at this point.

Well I see that Dom has been online during this night (and didn't post) and Penny has not been here since Wednesday. There's still an hour left of night but unless Penny shows up I'll will be less inclined to vote him tomorrow. Nova and INH have both been here. I'm most suspicious that Dom was here and didn't post - did he just turn in a night action?

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 7:47 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 5:56 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 4:06 pm @JaggedJimmyJay or whomever is good at math, how far are we away from actual m/lylo?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 1:54 pm There are 8 civilians left, perhaps with kill(s) coming. Worst-case scenario, two civilians die this night phase, and that leaves us in a 6 vs. 4 LyLo. Normally that would be MyLo, but the presence of a vigilante who is obligated to shoot changes that dynamic. If one civilian dies (with or without a mafioso dying as well), then it shouldn't be LyLo -- it'd be one mislynch shy.

A POE pool of 5 must now include all four mafia members to be successful AND they must be lynched in a proper order (if the unlynchable boss gets lynched out of turn, that's a disaster and might lose us the game on its own, which is why I have always hated those roles). It isn't impossible, but it's goddamned difficult.

so...... as of right now we have a cushion space of about 4 deaths, including lynches and night kills, before we're unreconcilably fucked by math? which equates to about 2 cycles?

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 7:48 pm**

is that accurate

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 7:54 pm**

I'm going to be gone a lot during this weekend because I work 12-13 hour overnights and my sleep schedule changes heavily. If I survive the night (because these actions have been fucking bizarre) I think that there HAS to be 1-2 mafia in the inactive pool. If Juliets saw Dom online shortly ago for a brief period, I think that could be a good lead and an excellent, albeit difficult to evaluate catch. In order of how willing I am to lynch each inactive at this time
(There isn't much of a gap between each unless noted - I'm going to try and color code this based on my preferences for a lynch among them)
Dom (based on juliets plausible theory)
Penny - Said he would read and post, never did
Nova - About on the same level as Nova
INH - Minimal posts since his return, but he is no longer AWOL, so I guess that's something positive comparatively

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 7:55 pm**

It's better to measure your margin for error in mislynches rather than the number of deaths. If only one civilian dies this phase, we'll have one mislynch left before LyLo. If we have a no-lynch (either by lynching the mafia boss or the independent), it'll be mathematically equivalent [or close] to lynching a civilian.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 7:56 pm**

My vision isn't that great and INHs color should be slightly more orange, but still less so than Penny and Nova's color

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 7:56 pm**

wolbre04 wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 7:54 pm I'm going to be gone a lot during this weekend because I work 12-13 hour overnights and my sleep schedule changes heavily. If I survive the night (because these actions have been fucking bizarre) I think that there HAS to be 1-2 mafia in the inactive pool. If Juliets saw Dom online shortly ago for a brief period, I think that could be a good lead and an excellent, albeit difficult to evaluate catch. In order of how willing I am to lynch each inactive at this time
(There isn't much of a gap between each unless noted - I'm going to try and color code this based on my preferences for a lynch among them)
Dom (based on juliets plausible theory)
Penny - Said he would read and post, never did
Nova - About on the same level as Nova
INH - Minimal posts since his return, but he is no longer AWOL, so I guess that's something positive comparatively

I'll bump this because it cut split from my edit note in preview

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 7:56 pm**

That team wouldn't surprise me, wolbre.

Only one of them deserves to win the game though if true (nova). The others haven't actually played it.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 7:58 pm**

wolbre04 wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 7:54 pm I'm going to be gone a lot during this weekend because I work 12-13 hour overnights and my sleep schedule changes heavily. If I survive the night (because these actions have been fucking bizarre) I think that there HAS to be 1-2 mafia in the inactive pool. If Juliets saw Dom online shortly ago for a brief period, I think that could be a good lead and an excellent, albeit difficult to evaluate catch. In order of how willing I am to lynch each inactive at this time
(There isn't much of a gap between each unless noted - I'm going to try and color code this based on my preferences for a lynch among them)
Dom (based on juliets plausible theory)
Penny - Said he would read and post, never did
Nova - About on the same level as Nova
INH - Minimal posts since his return, but he is no longer AWOL, so I guess that's something positive comparatively

wolbre, just a quick clarification. You can go to Quick Link, Members, and then the members name and see the last time they were online. Thats where I saw that Dom was on at 11:xx pm last night and thats how I saw the Penny hasn't been on since Wednesday.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 7:59 pm**

juliets wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 7:58 pm wolbre, just a quick clarification. You can go to Quick Link, Members, and then the members name and see the last time they were online. Thats where I saw that Dom was on at 11:xx pm last night and thats how I saw the Penny hasn't been on since Wednesday.

I think this may only be visible to moderators.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:02 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 7:56 pm That team wouldn't surprise me, wolbre.

Only one of them deserves to win the game though if true (nova). The others haven't actually played it.

I also understand the situation Quin is in, I've had 25ish games I've hosted where everyone commits to playing, and then I'll get a small handful of people who afk. It's especially hard for town to find potential mafia in inactives because they expect them to be modkilled :/

Would it be a waste to ask someone on my home forum if they want to sub in?

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:03 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 7:59 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 7:58 pm wolbre, just a quick clarification. You can go to Quick Link, Members, and then the members name and see the last time they were online. Thats where I saw that Dom was on at 11:xx pm last night and thats how I saw the Penny hasn't been on since Wednesday.
I think this may only be visible to moderators.

Seriously? Before I was a mod I was able to see it but that was the old syndicate. I apologize if it is only a mod view, I would have never said it had I known.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:03 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 7:59 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 7:58 pm wolbre, just a quick clarification. You can go to Quick Link, Members, and then the members name and see the last time they were online. Thats where I saw that Dom was on at 11:xx pm last night and thats how I saw the Penny hasn't been on since Wednesday.
I think this may only be visible to moderators.

I can manually click members on the very bottom and search each player and check their profile, GTF has the same system running on BB code

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:04 pm**

wolbre04 wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 8:03 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 7:59 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 7:58 pm wolbre, just a quick clarification. You can go to Quick Link, Members, and then the members name and see the last time they were online. Thats where I saw that Dom was on at 11:xx pm last night and thats how I saw the Penny hasn't been on since Wednesday.
I think this may only be visible to moderators.
I can manually click members on the very bottom and search each player and check their profile, GTF has the same system running on BB code

This site is actually easy to navigate because of how familiar I am with the framework and formatting of posts

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:04 pm**

wolbre04 wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 8:02 pm Would it be a waste to ask someone on my home forum if they want to sub in?

That is up to Quin of course, and we're always happy to have newcomers. In this case though, it may be best to wait for a new game. This one is quite late now, and dire for at least one side.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:06 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 8:04 pm
wolbre04 wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 8:02 pm Would it be a waste to ask someone on my home forum if they want to sub in?
That is up to Quin of course, and we're always happy to have newcomers. In this case though, it may be best to wait for a new game. This one is quite late now, and dire for at least one side.

I'll leave it be then. 2500 Posts is a lot to have someone weed through to get to phase 5

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:10 pm**

wolbre04 wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 8:04 pm
wolbre04 wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 8:03 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 7:59 pm
juliets wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 7:58 pm wolbre, just a quick clarification. You can go to Quick Link, Members, and then the members name and see the last time they were online. Thats where I saw that Dom was on at 11:xx pm last night and thats how I saw the Penny hasn't been on since Wednesday.
I think this may only be visible to moderators.
I can manually click members on the very bottom and search each player and check their profile, GTF has the same system running on BB code
This site is actually easy to navigate because of how familiar I am with the framework and formatting of posts

I think if a member chooses to hide their online status, it will hide that too.

(I could be wrong though).

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:14 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 7:55 pm It's better to measure your margin for error in mislynches rather than the number of deaths. If only one civilian dies this phase, we'll have one mislynch left before LyLo. If we have a no-lynch (either by lynching the mafia boss or the independent), it'll be mathematically equivalent [or close] to lynching a civilian.

I guess that's true. i was thinking in terms of number of deaths because with 2 vigilantes there could be anywhere from 1-3 deaths tonight.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:15 pm**

wolbre04 wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 8:06 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 8:04 pm
wolbre04 wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 8:02 pm Would it be a waste to ask someone on my home forum if they want to sub in?
That is up to Quin of course, and we're always happy to have newcomers. In this case though, it may be best to wait for a new game. This one is quite late now, and dire for at least one side.
I'll leave it be then. 2500 Posts is a lot to have someone weed through to get to phase 5

Definitely bring them over. But as 3J said maybe it's not the best to have their first game here a mid/late-game sub.

I have been trying to get a replacement lined up though. Just haven't had much luck with Greece and the Genius both running.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:18 pm**

@mafia

kill me off so i can replace back in in a new role

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:32 pm**

Night 4 has ended.

Spoiler: show

Day 5 has begun and will end in 24 hours.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:37 pm**

RIP Kylemii Scotty.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:39 pm**

Predictable kill, but smart. That suggests to me that it wasn't randomized.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:41 pm**

No vigilante shot.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:41 pm**

Sorry to see you go Scotty. I have really enjoyed having you back.

Too bad about our vig kill.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:42 pm**

7:4:1 is the present ratio. We have one mislynch left, or more accurately: one lynch of anything other than a mafioso who dies by that lynch.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:44 pm**

[VOTE: insertnamehere] aubergine

He's the absentee I think is most suspicious given his play on Day 0/1, and his recent return raises concerns as well. He was clearly aware of Scotty's desire to lynch me, which gives him a motive to kill Scotty (or to recommend that kill). He also defended me despite likely not being caught up, or even close, with the thread to this point. His level of awareness exceeds his posture in the game.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:46 pm**

I'm gone for the night but will be back first thing in the morning. Looks like good reasoning J but I need to think through it when I'm fresh.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:46 pm**

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:47 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 8:39 pm Predictable kill, but smart. That suggests to me that it wasn't randomized.

Predictable why?

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:47 pm**

juliets wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 8:46 pm I'm gone for the night but will be back first thing in the morning. Looks like good reasoning J but I need to think through it when I'm fresh.

Please do. Lord knows my reads have been worth shit all game.

Someone argue with me if you think there's a reason for it.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:49 pm**

I'm gonna be gone pretty much the entire day phase.

I'm gonna follow Jay's vote, because I don't know what else to do, nor do I have time to make another decision.

[VOTE: insertnamehere] aubergine

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:49 pm**

Kylemii wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 8:47 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 8:39 pm Predictable kill, but smart. That suggests to me that it wasn't randomized.
Predictable why?

Killing Scotty is win-win for a mafia team who is paying attention to the recent thread. He's active and trying, so to silence that is inherently ideal. Moreover, he is wrong about at least one of his loud clamorings (and by my measure the loudest of them): his desire to lynch me. I am not surprised they decided to do that. I look bad and now I look worse.

It's plausible one of the other Scotty targets was involved, i.e. juliets or Mac, but I won't extend the theorizing that far -- at least not until I have properly dug.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:51 pm**

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 8:49 pm I'm gonna be gone pretty much the entire day phase.

I'm gonna follow Jay's vote, because I don't know what else to do, nor do I have time to make another decision.

[VOTE: insertnamehere] aubergine

Do you trust me, Marmot?

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:53 pm**

Quin wrote: ↑Tue May 01, 2018 8:36 am
Rinka Hayami: A sniper proficient in taking down moving targets. At night, she has a 75% chance of killing one player who received votes in the last lynch. If her target is also targeting her, she will fire with 100% accuracy and will evade any protections or blocks.

Something I did not consider which might indicate we were all interpreting this incorrectly: the highlighted term might mean this role is only one-shot (and that Epignosis was that shot). [mention]Quin[/mention] could you confirm or deny (the number of shots, not the target or any such thing)?

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:57 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 8:53 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Tue May 01, 2018 8:36 am
Rinka Hayami: A sniper proficient in taking down moving targets. At night, she has a 75% chance of killing one player who received votes in the last lynch. If her target is also targeting her, she will fire with 100% accuracy and will evade any protections or blocks.
Something I did not consider which might indicate we were all interpreting this incorrectly: the highlighted term might mean this role is only one-shot (and that Epignosis was that shot). @Quin could you confirm or deny (the number of shots, not the target or any such thing)?

Correct. I apologise if my wording wasn't clear. Both of the snipers are one-shots.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 8:58 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 8:44 pm [VOTE: insertnamehere] aubergine

He's the absentee I think is most suspicious given his play on Day 0/1, and his recent return raises concerns as well. He was clearly aware of Scotty's desire to lynch me, which gives him a motive to kill Scotty (or to recommend that kill). He also defended me despite likely not being caught up, or even close, with the thread to this point. His level of awareness exceeds his posture in the game.

Can't really say that I'm surprised by this, or that I really have that much to defend myself with. I will say that this post:

insertnamehere wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 4:19 pmWhy is JJJ bad? Is it because he's *GASP* fallible in this game, or is there something more specific?

...wasn't intended to be a "defense" of you, but a legitimate inquiry to see if there was more to his suspicion. I have little to no context for these recent posts, and when Scotty came out against you, I was trying to discern if there were some events behind it that I wasn't aware of. Right now, my strategy is to just go with the case that makes the most sense to me.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 9:01 pm**

With that being said, the case that makes the most sense to me with my uber-limited knowledge of what the fuck has happened in this game is the one against Dom. Dude's been AWOL, he isn't usually AWOL, and he lacks any kind of reasonable excuse for being AWOL. Plus there's the shenanigans that Juliets was talking about, where he might be lurking in the thread.

[VOTE: DOM] aubergine

It's all I've got right now. If people want to link me to cases, I'll read them and give my opinion on them.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 9:04 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 8:51 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 8:49 pm I'm gonna be gone pretty much the entire day phase.

I'm gonna follow Jay's vote, because I don't know what else to do, nor do I have time to make another decision.

[VOTE: insertnamehere] aubergine
Do you trust me, Marmot?

I haven't given this game enough attention to trust anyone.

But you've been the most vocal, and there's no point in me getting my tinfoil hat out right now, so I'm going to follow your vote.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 9:05 pm**

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 9:04 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 8:51 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Fri May 11, 2018 8:49 pm I'm gonna be gone pretty much the entire day phase.

I'm gonna follow Jay's vote, because I don't know what else to do, nor do I have time to make another decision.

[VOTE: insertnamehere] aubergine
Do you trust me, Marmot?
I haven't given this game enough attention to trust anyone.

But you've been the most vocal, and there's no point in me getting my tinfoil hat out right now, so I'm going to follow your vote.

I've read roughly 10 pages of this game, and even I realize that this is a little bit ridiculous.

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 9:08 pm**

so we're possibly looking at a mafia that's partially absent and partially completely up to date

Posted: **Fri May 11, 2018 9:12 pm**

god what a stupid post lol

The Syndicate

Assassination Classroom [ENDGAME]

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