Bike [END]

[Long Con]

So let’s say someone bussed

tutuu
Dyslexicon
Hally
juliets
Epignosis
Guillotine

Least-to-most-likely?

is this your ordering? or are you asking tony what his is?

Both I guess? It's my ordering, and I was asking Tony too?

why do you have epi that low if he’s anti-bussing? do you think he made an exception here?

also i’m not really sure why i’m that high, because objectively speaking i think my vote is pretty questionable on its face. it came out of nowhere/had no progression so i’m curious why you don’t think it would be bus

I put that list together mostly based on how suspicious I think each player is, not how their vote looked in context or their assumed bussing opinions. When Tony asked, I grabbed the six names and ordered them based on what I thought was most likely for each one to be "the busser". More GTH than considered.

but see, this doesn’t really make sense. lc thinks epi is anti bussing but then suspects epi as being a busser anyway. almost like he knows that epi did in fact bus this time and he wants to be correct about it. but it doesn’t actually matter sense why town!lc wouldn’t factor in epi’s anti-bussing meta into his read of epi at all

Didn't we discuss this already? Stop this crappy confirmation bias tunnel please. I am town, Hally.

[Hally]

Okay, so I actually read a bit more of the context for what I was reading earlier.

I didn't realize Epi just simply OMGUS voted Marmot.

What do you think of Epi's votes in general? Do you think all his hard work on Night 1 makes him towny? I don't. He just quotes a bunch of posts and concludes gibberish. I don't see at all what everyone is townreading about him. It's like his obstinance is earning applause and respectful nods.

this is better though

[Long Con]

How do you convince yourself that's a scum strategy anyway? When I contradict myself, that's not a strategy, that's me trying to figure the game out.

[Hally]

LC and MR haven't voted yet and I don't particularly like that.

It also looks like LC is the only one who seems to agree with me about Epi, and one of my strong townreads has discouraged me there, so I'mma drop it for now since it doesn't look viable. I'm watching you though Epi!

[VOTE: MartinGG99] aubergine

What am I, chopped Marmot?

You are pushing Epi as town. That would be a disagreement.

why is epi not town? you say he’s not a busser, but you think this time was the exception?

There are a few exceptions, so this wouldn't be *the* exception. When I look at Epi's posts, they're pretty bad, and more than once it's been "oh yeah, but he doesn't like bussing." It's only one factor, not a religion. He's not anti-bussing like Glorfindel is anti-lying. And none of that means Epi never places a final vote on a teammate. Maybe he just didn't expect the Made wagon to take off. Maybe he didn't actually come back online until after the chop. MAybe he did come back at the last minute and thought "it will be very suspicious if I move my vote now!"

ok, this is getting better

[Hally]

what’s the case on epi again? just that he voted made without explaining it? and that makes them teammate compatible?

He's not trying to solve. His votes are unsupported with reasons and his posts have unrepentantly gibberish conclusions. Ignoring the lore that Epi never busses, what reasons are there to read him as town?

[VOTE: epi] aubergine there, a vote so everyone is more comfortable.

and this. this is approaching what i wanted to see from lc earlier in his iso

[Hally]

Take this post for instance, Hally. Why did he do this? Did he follow up? Is it something he was talking about? Is it a pressure vote? He voted Seanzie since.

How is the game different if this post doesn't exist?

[VOTE: Master Radishes] aubergine

Why is this townread? I don't get it, is this what you call maverick?

and this

[Long Con]

LC and MR haven't voted yet and I don't particularly like that.

It also looks like LC is the only one who seems to agree with me about Epi, and one of my strong townreads has discouraged me there, so I'mma drop it for now since it doesn't look viable. I'm watching you though Epi!

[VOTE: MartinGG99] aubergine

What am I, chopped Marmot?

You are pushing Epi as town. That would be a disagreement.

why is epi not town? you say he’s not a busser, but you think this time was the exception?

There are a few exceptions, so this wouldn't be *the* exception. When I look at Epi's posts, they're pretty bad, and more than once it's been "oh yeah, but he doesn't like bussing." It's only one factor, not a religion. He's not anti-bussing like Glorfindel is anti-lying. And none of that means Epi never places a final vote on a teammate. Maybe he just didn't expect the Made wagon to take off. Maybe he didn't actually come back online until after the chop. MAybe he did come back at the last minute and thought "it will be very suspicious if I move my vote now!"

ok, this is getting better

This is a conversation we had already in this game. I don't understand how you could think this post is good, and yet you just RE-accused me of scum-related contradiction a few posts ago. Actually I do understand... like I said, you are deep in a confirmation bias tunnel, where suddenly everything I have ever done is scummy. Please leave the tunnel, I'm not the one.

[Hally]

Epi-Marmot team? Epi seems to be trying to link Seanzie and Marmot as the final two wolves, but while he gives several reasons for the Seanzie suspicion, his reasons for Marmot seem to be "he voted MR" and "just for fun".

ok so there is a precursor to his marmot sus

[Hally]

You are really deep into the confirmation bias, Hally. What an ugly thing to wake up to. Suddenly every single interaction I've had with Epi is suspicious, whether I'm accusing him of being bad, or giving him a pass.

Take a look at Assassin's Creed if you want to see how I interact with Epi when we're bad together. I did not bus him, I voted him once when he was almost hammered, in a regrettably awkward way that frankly should have outed me. I don't bus Epignosis. He fucking hates it.

ok, i’ll look

[Long Con]

I've read your analysis Hally and it is quite good. I still will look at LC myself, here and hopefully in another game. I will be interested to hear LC's replies to your points.

Assassin's Creed is the one where Epi and I are bad together. Also the one where I self-voted to win the game. Just one of a couple of brilliant and masterful Long Con-crafted wolf wins from the year 2020.

[Marmot]

This is a conversation we had already in this game. I don't understand how you could think this post is good, and yet you just RE-accused me of scum-related contradiction a few posts ago. Actually I do understand... like I said, you are deep in a confirmation bias tunnel, where suddenly everything I have ever done is scummy. Please leave the tunnel, I'm not the one.

[Hally]

lc, is your poe just radishes/marmot? i really don’t think it’s radishes anymore. can you sell me more on marmot?

[Hally]

i could be hilariously wrong. it wouldn’t be the first time

[Hally]

marmot, what are your thoughts on the things i’ve been saying? you were clearing lc before. what about now?

[Hally]

this is one of those moments where spec chat is either cheering me on loudly and telling me not to give up or groaning loudly and roasting my terrible reads. i wish i knew which

[Hally]

@Long Con are you telling me you’ve never bussed epi as w/w? never ever?

[Hally]

because epi also “never” busses, but he did it this game

[Long Con]

This is a conversation we had already in this game. I don't understand how you could think this post is good, and yet you just RE-accused me of scum-related contradiction a few posts ago. Actually I do understand... like I said, you are deep in a confirmation bias tunnel, where suddenly everything I have ever done is scummy. Please leave the tunnel, I'm not the one.

Are you kidding me with this?

lc, is your poe just radishes/marmot? i really don’t think it’s radishes anymore. can you sell me more on marmot?

No, I really can't, not without repeating myself again. Read my posts if you like, they're there. I was shoving them right into your face yesterday, but I don't think you were interested in reading them.

[Long Con]

@Long Con are you telling me you’ve never bussed epi as w/w? never ever?

Assassin's Creed is the only game I can remember that we were bad together. I'm sure there are more, but it would take some Hall of Fame/Museum of Mafioso research.

[Hally]

ok

[Long Con]

because epi also “never” busses, but he did it this game

This is a good time to put that legend to rest then, isn't it?

[Hally]

i don’t know. i’m getting cold feet again now. maybe i should reread marmot

[Marmot]

marmot, what are your thoughts on the things i’ve been saying? you were clearing lc before. what about now?

My thoughts. I still would like to clear LC. In general, in my eyes, he was very proactive in trying to chop Epi which is a great look, especially after Made died. However, what I can't justify just now, is why LC is accusing you of confirmation biasing, in response to a post where you said he looked townie, and also after he has been exhibiting said behavior toward me. After pulling some posts you found suspicious, that is the quite certainly not confirmation bias because you're looking at the other side of the coin.

I dislike that response from him.


I'm in the middle of some vote analysis, and I'm hoping that might reveal something.

[Hally]

i kinda like lc’s response to me tbh

am i crazy thinking radishes is town? someone tell me i’m crazy

[Marmot]

I'm not kidding you LC, you're hardcore tunneling on me, and accusing Hally of tunneling/confirmation biasing.

[Hally]

i think lc’s treatment of epi gets a lot better after D1. if i go by just D1 i think teammates

but the stuff after looks more like how i expect lc to scrutinize epi

[Hally]

i’m gonna be real, i’m also bad at reading lc. i thought he was closer to his town game. and dizzy also did. but i don’t know now. i don’t know if my read on him is any good

[Marmot]

I don't think you're crazy to think MR could be town. It's not like he's been terribly scummy this game, it's more that he's not been terribly townie.

[Long Con]

marmot, what are your thoughts on the things i’ve been saying? you were clearing lc before. what about now?

My thoughts. I still would like to clear LC. In general, in my eyes, he was very proactive in trying to chop Epi which is a great look, especially after Made died. However, what I can't justify just now, is why LC is accusing you of confirmation biasing, in response to a post where you said he looked townie, and also after he has been exhibiting said behavior toward me. After pulling some posts you found suspicious, that is the quite certainly not confirmation bias because you're looking at the other side of the coin.

I dislike that response from him.


I'm in the middle of some vote analysis, and I'm hoping that might reveal something.

I'm not exactly sure what you mean, but my 'confirmation bias' statement was mad eafter reading, like, twenty posts where Hally quoted me and figured out a way that I could be scum and say it. I wasn't specifically referring to a post where she said I'm town.

[Long Con]

*made after

[Master Radishes]

I started catching up and then realised it's just going to be 3 pages of Hally saying 'it's just gotta be radishes' so I stopped.



(It's not, Hally.)

really? so because you’re in my poe you just.... don’t want to read the game? like... come on

I didn't mean for this to come across as snarky or anything. Should've included a or something to make that clear.

I totally get why I'm in the PoE. Just felt like it wasn't worth my time reading a couple pages of seeing people discuss it and so skipped ahead.

[Long Con]

I'm not kidding you LC, you're hardcore tunneling on me, and accusing Hally of tunneling/confirmation biasing.

Maybe? Because I feel like quoting me and just posting " " is what a guy does when he wants to make someone seem suspicious, but has no words to say to make it happen.

[Hally]

this game should not be so hard after two scum flips. dizzy was right, the syndicate is a viper’s nest. scum the lot of you

[Hally]

i feel like no matter what i do i’ll fuck this up

[Marmot]

i’m gonna be real, i’m also bad at reading lc. i thought he was closer to his town game. and dizzy also did. but i don’t know now. i don’t know if my read on him is any good

I agree with you. But I know I'm town, and from my pov, it looks like LC is trying to fit a narrative where Epi and I are teammates, and not considering other options.

[Hally]

someone else take over. i’ve been smothering this thread but hopefully i obv town’d myself at least

[Master Radishes]

because although radishes is a capable wolf, he’s not a confident one really.

What evidence do you have I'm capable? You've seen me try to wolf before.


I actually had a decent wolf game recently on MU. We lost, but I got very little attention and a lot of towncred for a good three or four rounds before things fell apart due to mechanics. I'm pretty proud of it tbh considering how bad my scum games have been in 2020.

[Marmot]

I'm not kidding you LC, you're hardcore tunneling on me, and accusing Hally of tunneling/confirmation biasing.

Maybe? Because I feel like quoting me and just posting " " is what a guy does when he wants to make someone seem suspicious, but has no words to say to make it happen.

I hoped you would notice your behavior without me having to say anything.

[Long Con]

i’m gonna be real, i’m also bad at reading lc. i thought he was closer to his town game. and dizzy also did. but i don’t know now. i don’t know if my read on him is any good

I agree with you. But I know I'm town, and from my pov, it looks like LC is trying to fit a narrative where Epi and I are teammates, and not considering other options.

I don't see how you can say that, my analysis of you and Epi was legit... you haven't even contradicted a single point I've made about how you two treated each other all game.

[Hally]

i’m gonna be real, i’m also bad at reading lc. i thought he was closer to his town game. and dizzy also did. but i don’t know now. i don’t know if my read on him is any good

I agree with you. But I know I'm town, and from my pov, it looks like LC is trying to fit a narrative where Epi and I are teammates, and not considering other options.

well that’s not necessarily scummy. scum probably want to keep their options more open, right?

like, are you clearing him? or is this meant as suspicion?

[Long Con]

I'm not kidding you LC, you're hardcore tunneling on me, and accusing Hally of tunneling/confirmation biasing.

Maybe? Because I feel like quoting me and just posting " " is what a guy does when he wants to make someone seem suspicious, but has no words to say to make it happen.

I hoped you would notice your behavior without me having to say anything.

"My behavior"? You mean you falsely interpreting a post I made so as to put suspicion on me? I did notice that.

[Long Con]

i’m gonna be real, i’m also bad at reading lc. i thought he was closer to his town game. and dizzy also did. but i don’t know now. i don’t know if my read on him is any good

I agree with you. But I know I'm town, and from my pov, it looks like LC is trying to fit a narrative where Epi and I are teammates, and not considering other options.

well that’s not necessarily scummy. scum probably want to keep their options more open, right?

like, are you clearing him? or is this meant as suspicion?

He knows I'm town.

[Master Radishes]

@Master Radishes i think you’re town. and i need you. please help me solve the game

Ugh. This is just AtE...and it's working. Now I feel compelled to devote a couple hours of proper iso analysis to the game. Damn it Hally.

[Hally]

because although radishes is a capable wolf, he’s not a confident one really.

What evidence do you have I'm capable? You've seen me try to wolf before.


I actually had a decent wolf game recently on MU. We lost, but I got very little attention and a lot of towncred for a good three or four rounds before things fell apart due to mechanics. I'm pretty proud of it tbh considering how bad my scum games have been in 2020.

i mean, i think you’re clearly not a bad wolf. you’re just different from how you are as town

[Hally]

@Master Radishes i think you’re town. and i need you. please help me solve the game

Ugh. This is just AtE...and it's working. Now I feel compelled to devote a couple hours of proper iso analysis to the game. Damn it Hally.

mission accomplished

[Long Con]

because although radishes is a capable wolf, he’s not a confident one really.

What evidence do you have I'm capable? You've seen me try to wolf before.


I actually had a decent wolf game recently on MU. We lost, but I got very little attention and a lot of towncred for a good three or four rounds before things fell apart due to mechanics. I'm pretty proud of it tbh considering how bad my scum games have been in 2020.

i mean, i think you’re clearly not a bad wolf. you’re just different from how you are as town

Have you looked at my successful wolf games this year?

[Long Con]

*last year

[Hally]

because although radishes is a capable wolf, he’s not a confident one really.

What evidence do you have I'm capable? You've seen me try to wolf before.


I actually had a decent wolf game recently on MU. We lost, but I got very little attention and a lot of towncred for a good three or four rounds before things fell apart due to mechanics. I'm pretty proud of it tbh considering how bad my scum games have been in 2020.

i mean, i think you’re clearly not a bad wolf. you’re just different from how you are as town

Have you looked at my successful wolf games this year?

well i just looked at assassin’s creed. i don’t know what i think. i don’t know anything anymore

[Marmot]

i’m gonna be real, i’m also bad at reading lc. i thought he was closer to his town game. and dizzy also did. but i don’t know now. i don’t know if my read on him is any good

I agree with you. But I know I'm town, and from my pov, it looks like LC is trying to fit a narrative where Epi and I are teammates, and not considering other options.

well that’s not necessarily scummy. scum probably want to keep their options more open, right?

like, are you clearing him? or is this meant as suspicion?

I dunno, I personally find it hard as scum to keep my mind open and change my mind a lot, since every new opinion requires some sort of fake statement for why that opinion is being made.

[Marmot]

I'm not kidding you LC, you're hardcore tunneling on me, and accusing Hally of tunneling/confirmation biasing.

Maybe? Because I feel like quoting me and just posting " " is what a guy does when he wants to make someone seem suspicious, but has no words to say to make it happen.

I hoped you would notice your behavior without me having to say anything.

"My behavior"? You mean you falsely interpreting a post I made so as to put suspicion on me? I did notice that.

What did I falsely interpret?