Bike [END]

[Hally]

@Master Radishes i think you’re town. and i need you. please help me solve the game

[Hally]

@tutuu can you explain in more concrete terms why you town read lc so much? what specific interactions with you give you that impression? i just want to see if i can see what you do

[Hally]

@juliets @Marmot can you read the things i wrote about epi/lc and tell me if they track with your expectations of how they specifically might treat each other if they were wolves together?

[Hally]

i feel like i’m having an epiphany and have just solved the game, which probably means i’m wrong

[Hally]

but i should go reread everything and see

[Hally]

the thing is, although epi favors not bussing as wolf, lc is someone who i think actively goes for distancing and bussing even when it’s not really necessary. i think he enjoys tricking people like that. and that has to be taken into account when reading his interactions

[Marmot]

My gut tells me Epi and tutuu. Tutuu has felt kinda cagey the last day or so

how did i feel in the last days of 8 ball

You were chopped, but you went down in a blazing storm of legacy and fury

I'd have look at how you behaved before that, that's probably a better indication

[Marmot]

ah fuck that was supposed to be in wolfchat

[Marmot]

Hollywood confirmed!

[Marmot]

Oops, I meant Hallywoof

[Marmot]

the yeets are predetermined from my pov, only if its not radish i will have to think about it, but that is extremely far to the future. 72 hour day + night for epi, 72 hour for day + night for mr, 72 hour day + night for sleep == 216 hours until potential f3

i like to think ahead and spending any energy now on something that potentially might happen at 216 hours is a waste of it

Yeah, I'd rather chop Epi first and confirm he's scum

[Marmot]

still cant believe tony was town. he's unreadable to me. i thought his play is replica of his scum game from russia game

Same tbh

[Marmot]

and marmot has, obviously, fooled me like 3 times. the one time i caught him as scum town didnt listen to me

:3

[Marmot]

Slapping people is against my nature. Can I just high five you?

[juliets]

the thing is, although epi favors not bussing as wolf, lc is someone who i think actively goes for distancing and bussing even when it’s not really necessary. i think he enjoys tricking people like that. and that has to be taken into account when reading his interactions

I'll say it again, LC is so tricky and I do think he enjoys it. I haven't gone through his iso though so let me do that. I think I said earlier without looking back it feels like he was nipping at Epi's heels the whole way but I need to confirm that. I have famously gotten tricked by LC before so I am perhaps unnaturally wary of him. (Sometimes I've read him correctly though but those losses to him went down hard.)

[Hally]

if you think about it high fives are just slapping someone’s palm

[Marmot]

The only reason I have to believe Hally is scum is that snowmelts made what looked like a tmi post to start the game. That's not much, but it's something I guess

[Marmot]

if you think about it high fives are just slapping someone’s palm

Yes, but imagine everyone else's reaction if I slapped any other body part

Yeah, you're only getting palm slaps from me

[juliets]

I'm having trouble even considering Hally as scum.

[Hally]

the thing is, although epi favors not bussing as wolf, lc is someone who i think actively goes for distancing and bussing even when it’s not really necessary. i think he enjoys tricking people like that. and that has to be taken into account when reading his interactions

I'll say it again, LC is so tricky and I do think he enjoys it. I haven't gone through his iso though so let me do that. I think I said earlier without looking back it feels like he was nipping at Epi's heels the whole way but I need to confirm that. I have famously gotten tricked by LC before so I am perhaps unnaturally wary of him. (Sometimes I've read him correctly though but those losses to him went down hard.)

i do agree with that assessment, that he was nipping at epi’s heels a lot. but then as i thought more on it i found myself going “but isn’t that exactly how i expect lc would treat a teammate in this situation?” and i feel like a he answer is yes

[Hally]

*the answer

[Hally]

The only reason I have to believe Hally is scum is that snowmelts made what looked like a tmi post to start the game. That's not much, but it's something I guess

well i can’t say why snow said that, because i’m not snow. i don’t know why snow would actually say that as wolf, but tbf i also don’t know why snow would say it as town

[Hally]

if you think about it high fives are just slapping someone’s palm

Yes, but imagine everyone else's reaction if I slapped any other body part

Yeah, you're only getting palm slaps from me

the syndicate doesn’t have a high five smiley but apparently we do have a “bonk, go to horny jail” one. mafe this says something about us

[Hally]

*maybe

[Hally]

I'm having trouble even considering Hally as scum.

that’s because i’m not i’m a good wolf but as town i have this undeniable purity that i really cannot reach when i wolf, and that’s what you’re seeing here

[Marmot]

Horny jail is probably a really fun place tbh

[Marmot]

Hally says that they're pure immediately after admitting we Syndicaters are a bunch of horny hooligans

Woof confirmed

[Hally]

Literally just waiting for certain players and follow ups right now. Nothing stands out to me that much as scummy, at least nothing I'm feeling convinced of. A lot of players seems fine-ish, and I'm more inclined to give people the benefit of the doubt. I feel like I'm lacking info on Snow, Radish, Made, Guillo, Epi and maybe others. So that is what I'm craving. Luckily, there's time left.

I am feeling this. Made has done as much as Grogu except he did it in five posts instead of zero. Yet Nanook wants to vote Grogu... maybe he's invested in Made Futures?

this is still a wolfy post. looks like tmi’ing made scum and setting up nook as a fall guy

[Hally]

Hally says that they're pure immediately after admitting we Syndicaters are a bunch of horny hooligans

Woof confirmed

[Hally]

epi and lc haven't gotten into a fight yet and are thus aligned and probably t/t

I think it's a little early for that yet.

[Hally]

tony might actually have been right in that post. he just got their alignment wrong

[Marmot]

Carry us Hally, since tutuu and I are too lazy right now

[Hally]

I havent caught up yet so my vote may change

[VOTE: Epignosis] aubergine

Guillo is this vote because Epi said LC should at least be making up things to apply pressure and you think applying pressure is only something wolves do? In games I've played here town players apply pressure all the time to get reactions to help them make reads. I think this is the wrong road to go down. If the vote is for some other reason please tell me about it.

Town dont make things up to apply pressure.

Hence on MAKING THINGS UP to apply pressure.

Sure we apply pressure based on hunches right? Which only exists in our guts. But at least they come from somewhere. If you are making things up to apply pressure, reads generated from that are corrupted.

This is getting too far into the realm of semantics, and it's pretty common for wolves to muddy the waters with semantic arguments just like this. I don't see anything wrong with what Epi did. [VOTE: Guillotine] aubergine

cHaInSaW dEfEnSe

[Hally]

I bet you there is at least one wolf on my wagon now

That's a progression of thought. Would you still think that if I were not on the list?

Wow, you are the wolf. I never said or implied that that wolf was you.

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

I was fishing for reactions.

Im reconsidering my townread on Guillo because this just doesnt make sense to me. Stuff that dont make sense to me are often towny but im having a hard time parsing this as towny, its just ???

Still lets yeet Made plz

Let's yeet Made. [VOTE: made] aubergine

Although I already regret moving my vote. I'm moving back to Guillo for now. [VOTE: guillo] aubergine

[Hally]

Pretty legit tho.

92 out of 100?

Do you think you deserve a perfect score?

When I grew up, 92 was a B. 93 was an A.

Fuck all that. Who's bad?

I don't know yet.

If Long Con is a civilian, this is lazy. A civilian by this point should have some idea of who is bad or at least make something up to apply pressure.

If Long Con is mafia, okay.

[VOTE: Long Con] aubergine

LOL if you really believed in this then you would have voted me 5 hours into every game we have ever played together.

claim: if lc was town he would have omgus’d the bejeezus out of epi for this on the spot

[Hally]

epi’s vote was bad. lc never has strong reads on like page 7. lc knows that epi knows this and town!lc would have voted epi on the spot for pretending he didn’t

distancing

[Hally]

Unless you guys wanna take out Epignosis today?

You have to buy me chocolates first.

[VOTE: epignosis] aubergine His ISO is really weak, and his votes even more so. He has, like, one read: Hally is town. Some softball criticism of the Day 1 lynch result, but none of his own solving conclusions about it. Some light, easy, vaguely-supported suspicions so that he can have a vote to cast.

He gets a little more animated when discussing... not chopping a low-poster twice in a row. Woooo. Real hardline, edgy opinions on the line here. I guess that's two reads, because "Wilgy prob not mafia" is in there too. Percentage of posts, that's his main platform in the game.

What would a strong vote look like to you?

Votes attached to good cases make the cut.

Oh.

I'm trying out a new style.

Oh, sorry, carry on then.

I'm operating on the "better lucky than good" style. This is where I catch Long Con for bad reasons or no reason whatsoever and it infuriates him.

Impossible for several reasons.

You're aiming for "not lucky or good", or more likely, just "evil".

You know me better than this. You know I'm all but done with Mafia. I'm here as a warm body. I'm a living vote. My time is at a premium. My job is now 100% reading and writing on a screen. I refuse to spend much of my free time reading and writing on a screen. I do not enjoy Mafia now that it has become largely "ha ha you can't keep up therefore you must be bad." I do not wish to read 900+ posts per phase. I would rather record music and play games with my family.

A new person I could understand suspecting me for this. Not you. You know better.

That's not what I suspect you for, shame-enabler denied. My "grievances with your participation" are not that you're not keeping up, just a general lack of explained opinions. Come on, this'll make the game more interesting for you!

112, who is mafia?

You've accused me but you haven't voted for me.

I don't like this prod from Epi. I don't think accusing someone without voting is suspicious, but I feel like Epi is saying-not-saying that it is.

Epignosis' reason for suspecting me is mostly or all OMGUS.

Epignosis has a much larger volume of 112 suspicion. BIG case, drawing out many points.

112 is in trouble; Epignosis votes for Long Con.

Or I keep my mouth shut and 112 stays out of trouble.

Be back in 30 minutes.

Don't understand. 112 is already in trouble.

By my hand. Nobody (but me) was voting 112 before today.

And now you are OMGUS voting me instead. Now that it's real.

[VOTE: Epignosis] aubergine

Don't understand. 112 is already in trouble.

By my hand. Nobody (but me) was voting 112 before today.

And now you are OMGUS voting me instead. Now that it's real.

What was my Day 2 vote of you?

Ill-supported and OMGUSsy.

And, if I suspected you in a manner that was not "OMGUSsy," what would that look like?

It would be more than "Long Con knows me better than this". Like, dude, I didn't even expect to see you in a Mafia game again, and suddenly you're subbing in. You expect me to place you in a category of "Oh, of course he doesn't want to be here and he has no time, and he looks at screens all day, and he'd rather be with his family" and put you in a special little place where you can't be suspected? You want everyone to believe that you ACTUALLY expected that to be my angle of approaching you? Just me as well.

Sorry, friend, but that is 100% bullshit.

And now you are OMGUS voting me instead. Now that it's real.

What was my Day 2 vote of you?

Ill-supported and OMGUSsy.

And, if I suspected you in a manner that was not "OMGUSsy," what would that look like?

It would be more than "Long Con knows me better than this". Like, dude, I didn't even expect to see you in a Mafia game again, and suddenly you're subbing in. You expect me to place you in a category of "Oh, of course he doesn't want to be here and he has no time, and he looks at screens all day, and he'd rather be with his family" and put you in a special little place where you can't be suspected? You want everyone to believe that you ACTUALLY expected that to be my angle of approaching you? Just me as well.

Sorry, friend, but that is 100% bullshit.

None of that tells me why I can't suspect you.

"OMGUS" is weak ass shit that ultimately stems from "I said you were bad first. Therefore you can't say I'm bad." It has no basis in reason.

I think you're annoyed that I subbed in and named you as mafia when up until this point, things were going clean for you.

Everything you said here is wrong.

I didn't tell you that you can't suspect me, I told you what your suspicion looks like.

Your definition is incorrect. OMGUS is that you suspect me BECAUSE I suspect you. And let's not get all highbrow "basis in reason" here - this is what is happening, here and now. This isn't a philosophy debate.

I'm not annoyed at all. Things don't go clean for me, ever. Due to my early-slanking playstyle, I am almost never in any agreed-upon towncore, and this game is no different. Your suspicion was a smirk at best.

[Hally]

those quotes aren’t from this game, they’re from escape from russia where epi and lc were both town

that’s how town!lc responds to what he thinks is epi accusing him for bullshit reasons. read those and tell me lc is a villager this game. he’s not

[Hally]

i refuse to believe town!lc sees epi vote him for such vs reasons on D1 and just shrugs it off for the entire rest of the day. town!lc would have been all over that. town!lc does not let epi get away with that because he knows epi knows him too well and he doesn’t trust epi easily. he would n e v e r let that go

[Hally]

Ok. I unvoted

Look at Epi's follow-up though... eleven minutes later, he voted someone else. No one even reacted to his LC vote, except me mocking it. He didn't even ever respond to my post about it.

this? this isn’t it chief

[Hally]

this isn’t with epi, but here’s how town!lc responded to town!dunya’s sus of him in space invaders. and this was like his second post of the game:

LC didnt convince me with his entrance tbh.

Good:
Epi
Alison

Bad:
Carot
LC

That literally cannot be true. My entrance was absolutely Civ-minded. I don't want us to have no protections left on Day 5. We will strictly assign players to a schedule of powers. We will schedule three of the four protects that each player ostensibly has. The fourth will be left as a "free protect" to add some unpredictability to the equation.

I would like to see nutella shoot dunya for this obvious fake analysis.

look at this. he’s all up in dunya’s face immediately because he knows dunya and doesn’t trust her easily. same thing as with epi

meanwhile all epi gets this game is a “lol”? i don’t buy it

[Hally]

i will be voting lc next day. if that ends up being hilariously wrong then welp, i tried. but i’m even more convinced he’s a wolf now than i was when i started, and that says something to me because i expected to be less convinced honestly

[juliets]

I've read your analysis Hally and it is quite good. I still will look at LC myself, here and hopefully in another game. I will be interested to hear LC's replies to your points.

[Hally]

i’m just gonna go through lc’s treatment of epi post-D1 since i’ve focused so far on D1 stuff

Several pages to catch up on; I was playing Dominion last night, not Mafia.

oh I think the grabbing quote thing from marmot is definitely rand wolf given the flip :P

The thought crossed me tbh. But holy shit, the cindy katers and their obsession with bussing. You gotta stop doing that.

I will never.

town:

tutuu
lc
jules
epi
marmot
dizzy

probably town:
sean
guillo
mr
hally

hmm:
nanook

remind me why you town read radishy?

I can't get into the mindset of someone who'd roll wolf and not be top poster, on one hand. But also, MR isn't even trying to go through the motions. It seems like he's keeping up with the game, but he's spurning calls to participate. And there's some genuine frustration it feels at some points in the ISO. Just fits the archetype for easy mischop it seems. Maybe it won;t matter.

Tony, can you explain this viewpoint? In my experience, supertown folk often take the top posting spots, and I've seen plenty of low-posting wolves. You think that if MR is a wolf in this game, he's top poster?

Can someone confirm that Epi is against bussing? I’ve probably heard it before. I feel none of his votes D1 were strong, and it seems like he just ended on Made randomly almost.

Jules would never bus in that manner, I don’t think.

I think I've only seen it happen once. He bussed DDL Day 1 in a game a while back, and it was pretty glorious to watch. I forget, but I think it was even a pre-meditated bus. This is kind of a pitiful attempt at a bus by his standards if that's what happened this game.

Then again, I've been away for 2 years and have missed a lot.

yea, that’s the thing. if you’re going to bus a teammate D1 you probably don’t do it by essentially naked voting them. that gets you no cred. wolves want cred if they’re going to bus

Epi is one of the only player that I know if strongly anti-bussing. I usually suggest it on very early in the game when I'm scum, but if Epi's on the team, he belittles the idea.

Three pages yet to catch up... I just didn't want to get bogged down in quoting. I'll post at the end of each page maybe.

epi is anti-bussing, lc is pro bussing. ok

[Hally]

I think a more salient question is whether Epi decides to shake off his quasi-retirement slumber to go full throttle in a game he rolls scum when he has in recent games been half throttle

I think it’s more likely he rolled town and his pride is goading him into playing hard

And this game is full of so many wonderful people and Epignosis is excited to play with us all!!!!!!!!!!

I think Epi would be more likely to go full throttle if he's scum, especially when a teammate goes down on Day 1. He'd have a sense of responsibility to his scummates.

[Hally]

My list looks something like this right now

Long Con
tutuu
Marmot
Hally
Dyslexicon
juliets
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Seanzie
Epignosis
Guillotine
Master Radishes
TonyStarkPrime

I didn't like Tony's explanation of why Radishes shouldn't be a suspect, they can be wolves together, and Made's suspicion of Tony seemed flat ("wolves aren't intentional?" and "180 going on 360"), plus Tony's placement in Made's Player Salad is just that sweet spot. Posts from Tony like the mathematical stuff or egging on Epi and I read like non-solving filler chatter.

Radishes feels like a scum who has watched the towncore form around him and didn't do enough to prevent/join it, and didn't want to have TONAL SHIFT suspicion like tutuu had to deal with earlier, so he went with the stubborn route instead. When it didn't make people let up, he's now saying he'll make a change, but so far it's just words.

Guillo's sudden "Gotcha!" vote on me after I voted him looks suspicious after I got over my initial surprise. It reads like a wolf that realized he needs a loud case to shift the building pressure away from them, and he gave up on it pretty easily when I said "just kidding".

Epignosis is normally inscrutable, but his reaction to my reaction to his vote on me was a complete 180 with no follow-up. I commented it on it earlier and he ignored it, and ignoring an Epi-reference is not something I usually see him do because his ego is quite large.

i know epi is pretty low here, but i still maintain that lc’s read on him is too soft ball. or too harsh. but it’s wrong. town!lc should either be scrutinizing epi more for his treatment of him and not living up to what lc thinks town!epi would be like or he should be town reading epi more because epi is anti-bussing. instead he’s doing this weird middle ground thing where he wants to suspect epi but clearly doesn’t want to grill him that much. it just feels wrong

in fact, radishes had a good breakdown of why this entire post feels wolfy and i agree with it. it’s too by the numbers. all the reads and reasoning for them feel like what a wolf thinks their reads should be. i don’t think this is how lc makes reads as town

[Hally]

So let’s say someone bussed

tutuu
Dyslexicon
Hally
juliets
Epignosis
Guillotine

Least-to-most-likely?

is this your ordering? or are you asking tony what his is?

Both I guess? It's my ordering, and I was asking Tony too?

why do you have epi that low if he’s anti-bussing? do you think he made an exception here?

also i’m not really sure why i’m that high, because objectively speaking i think my vote is pretty questionable on its face. it came out of nowhere/had no progression so i’m curious why you don’t think it would be bus

I put that list together mostly based on how suspicious I think each player is, not how their vote looked in context or their assumed bussing opinions. When Tony asked, I grabbed the six names and ordered them based on what I thought was most likely for each one to be "the busser". More GTH than considered.

but see, this doesn’t really make sense. lc thinks epi is anti bussing but then suspects epi as being a busser anyway. almost like he knows that epi did in fact bus this time and he wants to be correct about it. but it doesn’t actually matter sense why town!lc wouldn’t factor in epi’s anti-bussing meta into his read of epi at all

[Hally]

I've already alluded to having LC in my own PoE. His rainbow list up there is really just feeding that suspicion.

It’s more or less, minus I’d say Epi, a consensus list. That's fine in itself, but it feels quite...evenly spaced. He even has his yellows as Nook and Seanzie, two slots who haven’t really received suspicion but also haven’t really received firm townreads from others. If the wolf team is going to need to work for some extra mischops, those are two of the options they need.

As for his individual explanations, aside from the one about me, they are all anchored in specific moments. It feels…nitpicky, like he’s found one specific scummy moment and is blowing it up into a full case.

In particular, his read on Epi is pretty weak, or at least certainly not strong enough to overcome the amounts of work Epi has put in recently on finding Made connections. I don't mind LC's explanation itself so much as the fact that it alone seems enough to ignore anything else Epi has done, which doesn't feel like it's coming from a townie mindset.

I generally use more colours in my rainbow lists than most. I like having the gradations there. What suspicions do you have that defy the consensus?

It is a good point about Epi though. I skimmed his big Made post collections because I was in catchup mode, I need to go back and read them more thoroughly, same with synopsis someone did about how the votes flowed at EOD. Right now, I'm in online school Zoom meeting, so I'm not deep diving into anything. My Epi opinion excludes analysis of his N1 content.

read both radishes’ analysis of lc’s reads list and lc’s response. i think radishes was right on the money with his breakdown of lc’s reads. and lc responds by kind of walking back his suspicion on epi a bit

also, radishes doesn’t make that ^ post as a wolf. he would not directly call lc out for suspecting his teammate while he’s also getting scum read. scum!radishes is not that gutsy. that’s what a villager who doesn’t have tmi and isn’t concerned with his appearance looks like. radishes is town and made a damn good post

[Long Con]

You are really deep into the confirmation bias, Hally. What an ugly thing to wake up to. Suddenly every single interaction I've had with Epi is suspicious, whether I'm accusing him of being bad, or giving him a pass.

Take a look at Assassin's Creed if you want to see how I interact with Epi when we're bad together. I did not bus him, I voted him once when he was almost hammered, in a regrettably awkward way that frankly should have outed me. I don't bus Epignosis. He fucking hates it.

[Hally]

I'm going through your ISO Epi... what do any of your conclusions mean? Headless dolls, Ric Flair, horny jail... what is this?

I'm not answering this.

I really don't think it's an unreasonable question.

awkward