The Syndicate

sunbae wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:21 pm A villager will never, ever "bait marl into nightkilling me" because they think marl is a wolf in an overnight chat after spending apparently hours solving with marl and then coming into the thread the next day buddying marl and softing PR again.

Please also note the difference in posting style, intensity, and panic in vulgards postings today vs d1/d2 (which were super calm, chill, and meticulous).

The answer is the vulgard is wolf roleblocker who was setting up a potential claim for down the line to villager marl (both to increase thread influence by pocketing marl and to potentially eventually counter a kill a jk), sent in a kill on X and a rb on amy, got blocked, whoopsies.

The idea that the wolves thought they knew both power roles, knew that the jk was NOT blocking amy (which is the case if wolf marl thinks jailkeeper vulgard is blocking c4), and didn't roleblock amy is just preposterous. Asinine.

Your options are as follows:

1. Vulgard is a wolf who was rather clear, carried the kill as the safest option, got got
2. Outed Wolf is wolf roleblocker who targeted Amy n1, couldn't n2, decided to doc dodge onto vulgard, got a save. We don't even HAVE to have marl wolf for this scenario though its pretty likely.

Thats it.

Pick one and explain why.

Look, I could explain my thought process @ Marl for a day and I'd still be here explaining. There should be no difference in posting style; I think my approach to the game has been consistent. In fact, I think d2 is where I showed more panic than today, because I'd just singlehandedly misyeeted a villager and it colored my entire approach to day 2. I was much less decisive in my reads, for instance. I realigned myself today.

I did not soft PR "again," I have even explained this. There was never a PR soft on my part today.

The third point is something I can only answer with "no." So, no.

I don't know what the wolves did, I am offering suggestions because I'm trying to figure this out as much as everyone else.

Amy wasn't roleblocked night 1 because she said Zack went nowhere. Your outed wolf theory doesn't work.

"But Vul that means you're just a wolf." I'm town. I 100% understand why you're insisting; youre sure you got a red on me because of the circumstances, and because it's mechanically unlikely I'm a villager. But I am a villager. And if I do get yeeted today, please consider my legacy instead of writing it off, because the gamestate isn't what you think it is. You got a save on me, wolves probably thought I was JK, it is what it is.

I have a bunch of unsorted thoughts that I'll probably forget by the end of this conversation but

sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:19 pm i targeted outed wolf as an angel target, not vulgard

Holup holup holup holup holup

Am I reading this correctly as there being two separate targets?
A block and a doc? Not the same target?

Which means Vulgard being town doesn't necessarily mean he was the kill
Which would've been nice to know before everyone started screaming difference check and not after

And Visor is still a weird ass kill but it would've been good to know that was what we were working with ya know?

Again, Outed Wolf was jailkept night 1 so that's the entire reason why it can be possible.

He targeted amy, got roleblocked himself, couldn't target amy n2, amy gets a track in this scenario

It is the only option that exists without you being a wolf and I can't fathom why you're just dismissing it when you've had outed wolf as a wolf for like a day and a half anyways

Why did the dya wagon disappear? What has dya done today that's making you think they're town?

I targeted Outed Wolf on night 1 (was aiming to save him)
I targeted Vulgard on night 2 (was aiming to roleblock him)

Angel + roleblock happened to both of them

sunbae wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:49 pm Again, Outed Wolf was jailkept night 1 so that's the entire reason why it can be possible.

He targeted amy, got roleblocked himself, couldn't target amy n2, amy gets a track in this scenario

It is the only option that exists without you being a wolf and I can't fathom why you're just dismissing it when you've had outed wolf as a wolf for like a day and a half anyways

Oh. Well, then. I take back what I said, it's indeed possible.

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:49 pm I have a bunch of unsorted thoughts that I'll probably forget by the end of this conversation but

sunbae wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:19 pm i targeted outed wolf as an angel target, not vulgard

Holup holup holup holup holup

Am I reading this correctly as there being two separate targets?
A block and a doc? Not the same target?

Which means Vulgard being town doesn't necessarily mean he was the kill
Which would've been nice to know before everyone started screaming difference check and not after

And Visor is still a weird ass kill but it would've been good to know that was what we were working with ya know?

wot

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:46 pm In fact, I think d2 is where I showed more panic than today, because I'd just singlehandedly misyeeted a villager and it colored my entire approach to day 2. I was much less decisive in my reads, for instance. I realigned myself today.

you had like no reaction to it lol

Look, I cannot break this down any clearly than this:

either vulgard is a wolf or outed wolf is specifically the wolf roleblocker

worlds even exist where both are true!

zero worlds exist where neither are true. I just cannot fathom it.

So figure out which one is which.

Visor has the same PoE as me, except I'm the third wolf and my third wolf is SPF. If Visor's a wolf then he's either hardbussing or my reads are all wrong again.

Oh

Scrap that then
Back to processing

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:51 pm

Vulgard wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:46 pm In fact, I think d2 is where I showed more panic than today, because I'd just singlehandedly misyeeted a villager and it colored my entire approach to day 2. I was much less decisive in my reads, for instance. I realigned myself today.

you had like no reaction to it lol

I... did?

I have no idea why I'm wasting a post on this.

my plan is to kill vulgard, if town kill outed wolf and bronana
if wolf, kill dya and chloe

reevaluate after

saving posts for a while

er, vulgard and i can both be villas

(also id never not rb amy lol cmon)

Outed, the scenario in which you're a wolf is one in which you physically cannot roleblock amy night 2 because you tried n1 and can't do it back to back

sunbae I still don't get your dichotomy ELI5

sunbae wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:59 pm Outed, the scenario in which you're a wolf is one in which you physically cannot roleblock amy night 2 because you tried n1 and can't do it back to back

Why can't it just be the wolves prioritizing JK hunting like everyone's been saying

fwiw Sunbae is right that Vul's posts from while I was sleeping are different (and closer to his wolfrange) compared to his posts on other days

I'm inclined to think that that's because he was fake redchecked and not because he's a wolf but I acknowledge that I had a preexisting strong read that he was a villager

with that being said, the mechanical situation is [whatever mech scenario makes him a villager], my reasoning for this is that he's town and so cannot have been the wolf carrying the factional kill

this is a bit flippant but like, I don't know what the specific mechanical situation was, that's not something I can confidently figure out, all I can do is try to backsolve the mech situation from my reads

c4e5g3d5 wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:00 pm sunbae I still don't get your dichotomy ELI5

The actions that occurred last night were:
- No roleblock on outed tracker Amy
- No kill targeting outed tracker Amy
- Either a kill towards vulgard blocked by JK
- Or a kill being made by vulgard blocked by JK

In the event that the wolves tried to kill Vulgard, they have a roleblocker that can target Amy and prevent a track from happening. They did not elect to use this.

The argument has been presented that "well they expected Amy to be jailkept so they did not use the roleblock" but this argument holds no water. This argument is presented side by side with the "Marl is a wolf who Vulgard claimed JK to" argument to explain why Vulgard was targeted for a kill. In this scenario, the wolves "know" all of the power roles and have no extra use for that roleblock (tracker is 2x, jailkeeper is dying and can't target themselves). This means for this case to be accurate, you must believe that the wolves chose not to use the roleblock despite knowing who the power roles were and who the jk was likely targeting.

The only exception to this rule is if specifically Outed Wolf is the mafia roleblocker who specifically tried to target Amy night 1. Because I jailkept Outed Wolf on n1, in this scenario the wolves CANNOT roleblock Amy and have to hope Amy just gets Jailkept. Since they need to hope Amy is jailkept anyways, the kill goes elsewhere. Now, this does not require Marl to also be a wolf because Vulgard was suspicious of Outed Wolf, so Outed Wolf choosing to kill Vulgard as a doctor dodge is reasonable.

Therefore, the only options in which Vulgard is not a wolf (due to amy not being roleblocked) is one in which Outed Wolf is specifically the roleblocker who targeted amy n1.

No other scenarios exist that adequately explain why 1.) vulgard is targeted and 2.) amy is not roleblocked

One of vulgard or outed wolf is specifically the wolf roleblocker. Worlds exist where in theory Outed Wolf is a wolf roleblocker and Vulgard is a wolf goon, but that's a problem for a different day because they are not very likely (wrong WRONG post by outed wolf).

Vulgard or Outed Wolf always contains a wolf. Always.

Well, the PoE you're presenting does contain an outed wolf, so I'm sheeping this.

Sheeping the clear is the right play here. Get off the Chloe wagon, it's not happening today. Me or Visor, take your pick. In hindsight, I think Visor's posts today sounding like he's angry about me getting cleared mean he's just a wolf who was banking on me getting misyeeted today. The argument for me being town, outside of the fact literally everyone who has experience with me (including someone with perfect read accuracy on me) townreads me, is the fact I've been perfectly transparent with my thought process at all points of the game, and that I've spent this entire day trying to figure out the situation and share my legacy instead of openwolfing and going into antispew.

And I also have an avatar Kylemii likes. Which is the best argument.

You're voting for an outed wolf or for an anime girl. Which one would you choose as a villager?

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

look sunbae, its possible wolves made a bad play

i dont think its super likely but the world exists

i just dont wanna get shrug killed tomorrow in case you are wrong cuz im a villabro

I will kill outed wolf with the power of memes alone. Dead villagers, please lend me your power.
My plan is to get you all to vote the outed wolf with memes alone. This game is in dire need of memes.

I'm going to step away for potentially the rest of the day so i can have some posts tomorrow. I'm pretty much done with the mechanical aspects and I suggest others also start trying to solve a large swath of the game. Concoct a list you feel good about their town chances, start working together, and figure it out. These are my last moments in the game and I want to leave it in a place of people trying to solve things rather than just sitting back waiting for me to make a decision. You're all smart folks, you don't need me to tell you who to vote.

I'd like you to factor in my feelings on the mechanics, but use it as a springboard to your own solving. Go iso folks, find some clears, get cohesive, and lets do this.

Sunbae's avatar is the thing that concerns me the most in this game.

Essentially, my brain hurts and I'm not really in the frame of mind to just get bombarded at about mechanical stuff repeatedly. Like, I put my take out there, I feel really good about it, but I'm not going to like, beg people to agree with me. If you don't, you don't and I suggest you spend time just solving people based on their posts for a while.

No matter what happens, I feel like I did my job ok this game. I stayed out of the immediate poe, stopped a kill one way or another, and will enjoy the sweet, sweet release of dvc at the end of the day. If my interpretation of the mechanics are incorrect, sorry but I tried. I think, personally, vulgards posting today is wolfy in isolation of any mechanical stuff so I'm currently voting there but i don't know them so who knows! If you think "people in this game just brain farted and amy got a track" is a potential answer, then find someone you think is posting wolfy and vote them.

I think I've done my job and I have no desire to run point any further
someone else take over

Sunbae, you have remarkable patience to keep explaining the same thing to people 5000 times lol

no idea why anyone thinks vulgards posts d3 are towny; they simply aren't and I find them pretty lacking personally

you played fine sunbae

(and i think vulgard seems to realise the hill he has to climb lmao)

any thoughts on c4s popin?

vulgard apparently claiming jk to marl in their chat and then being like "well golly why did you all think I was hinting to marl to claim my target for me, I was merely observing bronanas soft" makes no sense

you CLAIMED JK to marl and it didn't occur to you to soft anything, or that marl would interpret your posts as softing? wtf. I never claimed jk in an overnight chat to anyone and I immediately considered softing something for reactions

outed wolf wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:43 pm any thoughts on c4s popin?

it wasn't good lol

bronana wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:44 pm vulgard apparently claiming jk to marl in their chat and then being like "well golly why did you all think I was hinting to marl to claim my target for me, I was merely observing bronanas soft" makes no sense

you CLAIMED JK to marl and it didn't occur to you to soft anything, or that marl would interpret your posts as softing? wtf. I never claimed jk in an overnight chat to anyone and I immediately considered softing something for reactions

Look, I'm VT and I don't do this often.

Sure I'll pause on the mech.

Arete's shielding of Vulgard looks scarily similar to my shielding of Alison in hindsight and I might just call them a tunneled townie off of that alone.

Yeah Vulgard's returning posts were towny but not any townier or different from the rest of his play, no idea why that's a tipping point in either direction for anyone. If he's obvtown enough to hard clear now, he was from the start. Which might just be the case but also mech.

@nutella put that me/spf v/w world down. Yeah godreads suck but... I haven't exactly kept the reasons for my spf read behind shadowy veils. I know how to read her, I'm showing you how to read her, and I think I've given you enough to get there yourself.

I'd be more fine with pressure on the slanker if we didn't just finish a day of, well, you know.

when you write posts in this tone it scares me

please stop scaring me

Arete, I think it was you that asked

I think vulgard's been mostly v all game. I initially voted vulgard when sunbae outed info because it seemed very damning, then I thought about it more

I don't think it's as clear cut as sunbae is making it because I've seen wolves do stupid things before. they may have targeted vulgard tonight (possibly a PR read)

Marl could have tried to kill vulgard due to the fake claim

or

Vulgard could be a wolf

There are 2 scenarios where vulgard is a villa, so i voted the person I had just read an iso of and had concerns about instead

dyachei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:24 pm Arete, I think it was you that asked

I think vulgard's been mostly v all game. I initially voted vulgard when sunbae outed info because it seemed very damning, then I thought about it more

I don't think it's as clear cut as sunbae is making it because I've seen wolves do stupid things before. they may have targeted vulgard tonight (possibly a PR read)

Marl could have tried to kill vulgard due to the fake claim

or

Vulgard could be a wolf

There are 2 scenarios where vulgard is a villa, so i voted the person I had just read an iso of and had concerns about instead

why do wolves not roleblock me in the v!vulgard scenarios

shrug, occam's razor suggests vulgard's just a wolf

if that winds up false, we can re-evaluate

Amy wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:25 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:24 pm Arete, I think it was you that asked

I think vulgard's been mostly v all game. I initially voted vulgard when sunbae outed info because it seemed very damning, then I thought about it more

I don't think it's as clear cut as sunbae is making it because I've seen wolves do stupid things before. they may have targeted vulgard tonight (possibly a PR read)

Marl could have tried to kill vulgard due to the fake claim

or

Vulgard could be a wolf

There are 2 scenarios where vulgard is a villa, so i voted the person I had just read an iso of and had concerns about instead

why do wolves not roleblock me in the v!vulgard scenarios

they may have been expecting you to be jked. they may have tried to roleblock the PR reads they had.

dyachei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:29 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:25 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:24 pm Arete, I think it was you that asked

I think vulgard's been mostly v all game. I initially voted vulgard when sunbae outed info because it seemed very damning, then I thought about it more

I don't think it's as clear cut as sunbae is making it because I've seen wolves do stupid things before. they may have targeted vulgard tonight (possibly a PR read)

Marl could have tried to kill vulgard due to the fake claim

or

Vulgard could be a wolf

There are 2 scenarios where vulgard is a villa, so i voted the person I had just read an iso of and had concerns about instead

why do wolves not roleblock me in the v!vulgard scenarios

they may have been expecting you to be jked. they may have tried to roleblock the PR reads they had.

i feel like logically speaking this doesn't hold water

if they expect the jk to be on me that would theoretically occupy BOTH of our prs. it's not a reason to jk hunt with the roleblock so much as a reason to not need to roleblock at all

i feel like in a scenario where you have 3 wolves alive and no Super Obvious kill targets beyond me you're never SO scared of the jailkeeper that you risk me getting a track off solely to try to deny the possibility of a save

Amy wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:33 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:29 pm

Amy wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:25 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 3:24 pm Arete, I think it was you that asked

I think vulgard's been mostly v all game. I initially voted vulgard when sunbae outed info because it seemed very damning, then I thought about it more

I don't think it's as clear cut as sunbae is making it because I've seen wolves do stupid things before. they may have targeted vulgard tonight (possibly a PR read)

Marl could have tried to kill vulgard due to the fake claim

or

Vulgard could be a wolf

There are 2 scenarios where vulgard is a villa, so i voted the person I had just read an iso of and had concerns about instead

why do wolves not roleblock me in the v!vulgard scenarios

they may have been expecting you to be jked. they may have tried to roleblock the PR reads they had.

i feel like logically speaking this doesn't hold water

if they expect the jk to be on me that would theoretically occupy BOTH of our prs. it's not a reason to jk hunt with the roleblock so much as a reason to not need to roleblock at all

i feel like in a scenario where you have 3 wolves alive and no Super Obvious kill targets beyond me you're never SO scared of the jailkeeper that you risk me getting a track off solely to try to deny the possibility of a save

wolves dont always do the logical thing

everyone in this PL is a competent wolf and a solid mechanical player

i don't want to let vulgard off the hook when the alternative scenario involves 3 such players collectively getting brain worms

(or involves visor being a wolf, which i rly just don't think is a thing that's happening here)

What if I'm a wolf and have brain worms

i mean, i'm town and have brain worms, so

I keep flip flipping
Mechanically the correct kill is always to kill Vulgard but like

Idfk

did chloe ever come back btw

i've not read the morning posts yet

Nein

I'm meming, because if you decide to kill me, that's fine, as long as you get Visor next - once I flip green. I'm a bit tired of defending myself, and defending myself might not be the right play anyway, considering there's always a wolf between me and Visor - given what Sunbae laid out.