Re: DFS Mafia [Day 2]
Posted: Sat Aug 18, 2018 7:50 pm
wow it's D2 and we only have 3 players
(sorry in advance to Alien for the notifications and to the thread at large for the jumping around that will inevitably happen in this ISO; i do nothing sequentially because i'm the worst)Infected_alien8_ wrote: ↑Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:10 pm Ughhh Mac's mindset makes sense but I disagree since I never like to assume people will inevitably be mislynched as a Townie because they can always bring it back, but I don't think it's necessarily alignment-indicative because I know people who favour lynches like that as Town 'they're gonna die inevitably anyway so let's kill them for info', but it is definitely scum compatible and the fact he suggested it to Jay after Jay's story makes me think 'hmm' and that in combination with my earlier points makes me inclined to lean that it's a Mafia sided thing rather than a Town thing (how's this for hedge!)
Can someone give me a run down on the sprito case since it looks like it's him vs me vs mac right now?
I have to go away again now, I'll be back in like an hour I think
in very close proximity to this, alien quoted a post that i made and said that he townread me for it, which makes me think he was just trying to tack on town supporters where he could.abyssum wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 8:21 pm he probably just TMI'd Kyle and Colin too. he didn't really do much to explain his take on the situation, he just said it feels/seems like they're town/town based on their arguing. it was done at a time when Alien started needing town allies as well. this isn't really catastrophic if Alien needs to lynch one of them later down the line either, since it's just an impressions post without much passion behind it. ("not really catastrophic" lends itself well if one of them is scum too though)
if i had to put one of them as the scum partner in that situation, it'd probably be Colin? but Colin has a couple of other good looks independent of that situation
OOOOHInfected_alien8_ wrote: ↑Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:53 pmWhat? They're not random players they're the ones I have strong feelings about, and they're not random groups they're 'would lynch vs town'MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:52 pm You gave select reads on random players in randomised groups with very little structure to the post it's a known scum tell.
[/quote]abyssum wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 8:19 pm i don't think that Alien, when talking about Mac as a partner, feels any compulsions to acknowledge when Mac makes a towny post. i also don't think he feels the need to explain and explain about Mac's potential mindset, or why he feels the motivation to do what he's doing, or the ways that his plans can go wrong--unless Mac is actually town. please offer takes on this, especially the people here who have also played with Alien or spectated the games that he played (but anyone is welcome to weigh in).
i know this isn't in Alien's ISO, but i actually think this may reflect poorly on sprityo & want some input on it
I was under the impression sprityo made that post before the actual flip, but after alien had already admitted to being a mafioso. I'll double-check.abyssum wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 8:44 pmi know this isn't in Alien's ISO, but i actually think this may reflect poorly on sprityo & want some input on it
Alien hadn't flipped at this point, so the only people who knew what he would flip were his teammates. the way that sprityo has this post worded sort of has an implicit red flip in it; even though sprityo doesn't say that alien will flip mafia, the emphasis on alien's questions leans that way. (town Alien's questions wouldn't necessarily indicate much of anything but sincerity on Alien's behalf. there's a possibility that sprityo is referring to responses to questions tho)
MP7 noted that this came pretty shortly before alien's actual flip. could be feeling some pressure to appear involved and like he's progressing the game forward
i'm keeping in mind Jay's point about breaking up me/sprityo as teammates, but i thought i'd make a note of it anyway
Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:27 pmI'll give Robot a vote.RobotNerd277 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:27 pm @Marmot
hi do you exist
what is your opinion on literally anything? I think I particularly want perspectives on MacDougall, whose play I initially read as overly abrasive and distracting, but I'm now nodding my head along to everything they're saying. What do you think of them and their opinions?
This is a very wishy-washy post. Additionally, Robot is focusing a lot of attention on Macdougall, despite admitting here that he agrees with Mac.
That's my opinion, have it.
i think i tentatively like it but mostly because of the timingJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 8:53 pm I appreciate that Marmot isn't wasting away in eternal "I have to catch up" purgatory, and is instead placing votes based on even one little thing that he found -- and it makes sense that he found it since he was the focus of the post.
Infected_alien8_ wrote: ↑Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:36 pm Colin - light Town although I don't remember why I have that in my head
Kyle - I don't remember any of their posts, null read
Marmot - Same as Kyle
Robot - Null, nothing alignment-indicative so far
Russ - Light Town because their posts accusing me felt genuine actually
Spirit - Same as Kyle and Marmot
Turnip - Same as Robot
Infected_alien8_ wrote: ↑Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:16 pm COLIN TOWN
JAY TOWN
LUNA TOWN
M PLUS 7 SCUM
RUSS SCUM
SPRIT NO IDEA NOBODY'S TELLING ME THE CASE ON THEM
MAC TOWN
ROBOT TOWN
DH MAFIA
umm, give me more names
When I read JJJ's analysis of Alien and Colin's interactions, Colin didn't look very good to me. Add that to the fact that Alien slaps a TOWN on him at the very top of both read lists, and I'm pretty convinced Colin is scum.Infected_alien8_ wrote: ↑Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:07 pm Alright, legacy reads as of right now bearing in mind I've missed the past few pages:
Scum: Russ - once I die please go back and read my response to his case against me because it's completely biased and agendary
M Plus 7: my gut is back on him again now after he suspected me trying to catch up and I have no idea how he got to that, and 'player salad', feels like he's just trying to find reasons to suspect me again. Will repeat his dogpees didn't feel genuine to me at all
Probably scum but gut says Town: Mac, reasons same as before, but gut is saying his reactions to my slowly turning against him is Town
Town: Tsiah, Jay, both I love their lines of interrogation and they just seem really Town to me. Aby, her defence of me from Jay felt really genuine trying to figure Jay out and wasn't afraid of splashing herself with what was being thrown my way
I wanna say Luna's town now for her defence of me too
Everyone else has for + againsts that I outlined before, nothing really changed on those
Did you have any specific questions you want me to address?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:11 pm Lunalee, I'd really love to hear any response you can provide to this. You're an extremely important player in the current scenario, and sorting you out could make all the difference.
So there’s this kid named Harry Potter. His parents got fucked up and he lives with his fat uncle until one day they get letter bombed and a walking beard comes on a motorcycle to bring him to a secret alleyway and then an invisible castle in the English countryside. He meets a ginger and a nerd and then burns a guy’s face off with his bare hands.Turnip Head wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:51 pm Voting for @ColinIsCool until he gives me a recap of The Game So Far
I don't see him on the pollColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:59 pmSo there’s this kid named Harry Potter. His parents got fucked up and he lives with his fat uncle until one day they get letter bombed and a walking beard comes on a motorcycle to bring him to a secret alleyway and then an invisible castle in the English countryside. He meets a ginger and a nerd and then burns a guy’s face off with his bare hands.Turnip Head wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:51 pm Voting for @ColinIsCool until he gives me a recap of The Game So Far
[mention]Lunalee[/mention] tyty for the big post! how do you feel about exchanges like this between Alien + Colin--does it read like two teammates talking to one another to you, and why?Infected_alien8_ wrote: ↑Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:30 amIt's not very good, his analysis of my posts with the two colours is biased and misrepresents them, his point about me having many interactions with Jay means nothing without actually looking at the content in those interactions which he didn't do, probably because he doesn't need to because he's not actually trying to sort me, his insistence that I only have one read in M Plus 7 I don't understand how he thinks that at all but he's not the only one so maybe I am just coming across badly, and his insistence of my treatment of the slip being suspicious also makes no sense to me and it feels like he's just trying to push an agenda on something that isn't really thereColinIsCool wrote: ↑Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:08 am Has anybody made a post about whether Alien is similarly hedgey in other games?
The Russ post is very good. I like it a lot. However, I think Alien's probing of abyssum looks very townish too, but I'm not sure I buy going after Russ for making his post. Hmm hmm hmm
Shit. Guess you gotta vote for me then manTurnip Head wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:08 pmI don't see him on the pollColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:59 pmSo there’s this kid named Harry Potter. His parents got fucked up and he lives with his fat uncle until one day they get letter bombed and a walking beard comes on a motorcycle to bring him to a secret alleyway and then an invisible castle in the English countryside. He meets a ginger and a nerd and then burns a guy’s face off with his bare hands.Turnip Head wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:51 pm Voting for @ColinIsCool until he gives me a recap of The Game So Far
Ooooh I like this.Marmot wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 8:46 pm I don't know what the case is, but I'm voting him because of this post.
Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:27 pmI'll give Robot a vote.RobotNerd277 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:27 pm @Marmot
hi do you exist
what is your opinion on literally anything? I think I particularly want perspectives on MacDougall, whose play I initially read as overly abrasive and distracting, but I'm now nodding my head along to everything they're saying. What do you think of them and their opinions?
This is a very wishy-washy post. Additionally, Robot is focusing a lot of attention on Macdougall, despite admitting here that he agrees with Mac.
That's my opinion, have it.
Thank you abyssum!abyssum wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:08 pm@Lunalee tyty for the big post! how do you feel about exchanges like this between Alien + Colin--does it read like two teammates talking to one another to you, and why?Infected_alien8_ wrote: ↑Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:30 amIt's not very good, his analysis of my posts with the two colours is biased and misrepresents them, his point about me having many interactions with Jay means nothing without actually looking at the content in those interactions which he didn't do, probably because he doesn't need to because he's not actually trying to sort me, his insistence that I only have one read in M Plus 7 I don't understand how he thinks that at all but he's not the only one so maybe I am just coming across badly, and his insistence of my treatment of the slip being suspicious also makes no sense to me and it feels like he's just trying to push an agenda on something that isn't really thereColinIsCool wrote: ↑Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:08 am Has anybody made a post about whether Alien is similarly hedgey in other games?
The Russ post is very good. I like it a lot. However, I think Alien's probing of abyssum looks very townish too, but I'm not sure I buy going after Russ for making his post. Hmm hmm hmm
Okay.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:03 pm Luna put that vote on me and watch your fantasy owners shake their fists!
I'm okay with a Robot or Colin lynch. But I had to vote Colin because he dared me to.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:42 pm Luna, how do you feel about Robot leading the poll right now?
Why is DH more likely to be scum than Colin? I didn't see much pointing toward him.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:44 pm Colin is not a good lynch yet. The odds of DH or RN being Mafia are much higher.
How do you think DH looks on his own, without considering his interactions with alien?Lunalee wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:45 pmWhy is DH more likely to be scum than Colin? I didn't see much pointing toward him.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:44 pm Colin is not a good lynch yet. The odds of DH or RN being Mafia are much higher.
His posts are snarky and lazy, and haven't added much to the game. Does town DH ever coast through to day 2 like this?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:51 pmHow do you think DH looks on his own, without considering his interactions with alien?Lunalee wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:45 pmWhy is DH more likely to be scum than Colin? I didn't see much pointing toward him.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:44 pm Colin is not a good lynch yet. The odds of DH or RN being Mafia are much higher.
He doesn't play very often these days, so it's difficult to peg what he "usually" does. I wouldn't put it past him though to fart around all day in either alignment.
Yeah, I noticed that post seemed like the most effort he had put in all game. And it is still basically a "to do list" for someone else to pick up. I don't know what to think about DH, but I would be okay with his lynch.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:09 pmHe doesn't play very often these days, so it's difficult to peg what he "usually" does. I wouldn't put it past him though to fart around all day in either alignment.
I think it's a bit more concerning though that he has provided this post to suggest directions of inquiry -- but he hasn't done anything himself to pursue those directions.
Do you see much reason to award town credit to either of us?Lunalee wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:45 pmWhy is DH more likely to be scum than Colin? I didn't see much pointing toward him.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:44 pm Colin is not a good lynch yet. The odds of DH or RN being Mafia are much higher.
I appreciate your thoughts on Colin, and the full set of reads you gave. It strikes me as a positive thing for you to go against the grain a little bit, though that must be tempered by the fact that if you're teamed with either DH or Robot, your hand is forced.
I'm not gonna play exceptional, because im not an exceptional person. I'll play mafia like i always play mafia, however i wantM Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:27 pmsprityoM Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:24 pmThis seems correct to me.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:20 pm We started with 15 players.
The most likely arrangement of alignments is 12 civilians versus 3 mafia. 11 versus 4 is technically plausible, but I don't think it's likely in a vanilla-heavy heist. That's hard to balance, and Epignosis is less likely to screw around with that kind of swing than most hosts would be.
Given that the winning contestant will be granted a win as an independent, I think it's inherently less likely that the game features any standard independents.
So, I work with 12 vs. 3.
Day 1 was a mafia lynch, and Night 1 had no kill. That'd leave us in Day 2 at 12 vs. 2.
If every day from this point results in a mislynch and a kill follows in the night, that can happen four times before we reach 4 vs. 2 in Day 6. That would represent MyLo (and LyLo if we are unable to no lynch).
4 mislynches available, 2 mafia alive, the POO pool must correctly feature 6 names -- this assumes I haven't screwed the pooch in my math/logic here. Failed kills would change the dynamic.
So... assuming my list above was hard-followed (which is NOT recommended, because #constantreassessment, but it's how I currently stand), that means the most likely outcome if the game isn't solved until F3 is a sprityo lynch.![]()
Do everything you can to wow us with your town feathers please. I need it. I need to find you as town.
MP, we have a music forum..... stop inflating your post count ffs