The Syndicate

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:17 pm**

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:04 pm
Made wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:01 pm
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:00 pm
Made wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 4:49 pm guise, i think abigal accidentally put her role card in her signature, we got one!!!1!!
So I'm town than

Since

Yanno

The role card in my bio is town desperado
you assume my literacy— big mistake pal
Perspective slip

in what world is a desparado town?
desperate? masculine noun? sounds pretty scummy to me

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:24 pm**

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 2:55 am
pyxxy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 2:34 am
leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 2:33 am
pyxxy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 2:31 am
leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 2:30 am
pyxxy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 2:29 am I got caught up on 10 choose 3 and gave up because it felt like dependent events e.g. a w/w pair affects the odds of future w/w pairings

stats continues to be lies
It does, but it makes the equation much more complicated so I chose to just run the simpler equation. The exact probability doesn't matter here, just whether an event is plausible or not.

It's been a while since I had to work on anything more complex than a simple normal or Poisson distribution, so forgive me if my statistical skills are a little rusty
stats is poison
I put the problem in a LLM, and this is what it gave me:

"This is a combinatorics problem. We need to find the probability that no wolves are paired with each other when each person from one thread is paired randomly with someone from the other thread.

Let's break down the problem:

1. There are 13 players in each thread, so there are 13! ways to pair them. 2. There are 3 wolves in each thread, so there are 3! ways to pair the wolves. 3. The remaining 10 players in each thread can be paired in 10! ways.

The total number of ways to pair the players is 13!, and the number of ways to pair the players such that no wolves are paired with each other is (3! * 10!).

The probability that no wolves are paired with each other is therefore (3! * 10!) / 13!.

Let's calculate this:

1. 13! = 6,227,020,800 2. 3! = 6 3. 10! = 3,628,800

So, the probability is (6 * 3,628,800) / 6,227,020,800 = 0.00349206349.

Therefore, the probability that no wolves are paired with each other is approximately 0.0035.

Let's return this in an html-like answer tag:

0.0035"

Take that as you will

If you ever have a math problem in a mafia game, just send it over to me please.

Ofc said "LLM" is wrong.

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:25 pm**

Eod is tomorrow 28 hours and a half right?

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:27 pm**

Bereft wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:24 pm
leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 2:55 am
pyxxy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 2:34 am
leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 2:33 am
pyxxy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 2:31 am
leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 2:30 am
pyxxy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 2:29 am I got caught up on 10 choose 3 and gave up because it felt like dependent events e.g. a w/w pair affects the odds of future w/w pairings

stats continues to be lies
It does, but it makes the equation much more complicated so I chose to just run the simpler equation. The exact probability doesn't matter here, just whether an event is plausible or not.

It's been a while since I had to work on anything more complex than a simple normal or Poisson distribution, so forgive me if my statistical skills are a little rusty
stats is poison
I put the problem in a LLM, and this is what it gave me:

"This is a combinatorics problem. We need to find the probability that no wolves are paired with each other when each person from one thread is paired randomly with someone from the other thread.

Let's break down the problem:

1. There are 13 players in each thread, so there are 13! ways to pair them. 2. There are 3 wolves in each thread, so there are 3! ways to pair the wolves. 3. The remaining 10 players in each thread can be paired in 10! ways.

The total number of ways to pair the players is 13!, and the number of ways to pair the players such that no wolves are paired with each other is (3! * 10!).

The probability that no wolves are paired with each other is therefore (3! * 10!) / 13!.

Let's calculate this:

1. 13! = 6,227,020,800 2. 3! = 6 3. 10! = 3,628,800

So, the probability is (6 * 3,628,800) / 6,227,020,800 = 0.00349206349.

Therefore, the probability that no wolves are paired with each other is approximately 0.0035.

Let's return this in an html-like answer tag:

0.0035"

Take that as you will
If you ever have a math problem in a mafia game, just send it over to me please.

Ofc said "LLM" is wrong.

Yeah, I think it calculated the probability that all wolves were paired.

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:28 pm**

RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:25 pm Eod is tomorrow 28 hours and a half right?

Roughly, yeah

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:39 pm**

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:10 pm
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:01 pm Ted Porscha thinks you're the wolfiest slot today
she just wants my attention...

Hit

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:39 pm**

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:40 pm**

Made wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:17 pm
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:04 pm
Made wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:01 pm
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:00 pm
Made wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 4:49 pm guise, i think abigal accidentally put her role card in her signature, we got one!!!1!!
So I'm town than

Since

Yanno

The role card in my bio is town desperado
you assume my literacy— big mistake pal
Perspective slip
in what world is a desparado town?
desperate? masculine noun? sounds pretty scummy to me

In the world where this role came from a mashlol

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:42 pm**

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 3:47 pm meh i just realized it's prolly not bereft

leetic tracked him nowhere, which should be >rand vanillager

Sigh

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:48 pm**

As far as the cred for the wagon thing, I think Gira is really the only person that I think had minimal incentive.

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:49 pm**

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:28 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:25 pm Eod is tomorrow 28 hours and a half right?
Roughly, yeah

Cool I woke up freaking out it was EOD

Spoiler: show

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:50 pm**

in what world is a desperado NOT a villager? lul

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:51 pm**

I am sad I missed out on more page 69 posting. Not sure how I feel about Gira and Made being on Neon

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:52 pm**

I will also summarily decline to take anything Made posts as being AI.
Yeah I know, we have new person and its supposed to make things easier, but eh.

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:52 pm**

[VOTE: Made ] aubergine

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:58 pm**

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:50 pm in what world is a desperado NOT a villager? lul

The one where someone designed a game while on shrooms

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:59 pm**

RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:51 pm I am sad I missed out on more page 69 posting. Not sure how I feel about Gira and Made being on Neon

If either is a wolf it's made but I town read them so

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:59 pm**

Skill issue

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:00 pm**

i have no idea who neon thinks wolves are and this is prolly because i glossed over it

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:00 pm**

vote pyxxy, put the heat on em

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:00 pm**

where* not who

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:01 pm**

tedxtr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:00 pm vote pyxxy, put the heat on em

well thats useless

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:04 pm**

also bets on whose getting NK'ed today?
its leetic correct?

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:06 pm**

Wait holy, im no longer a mark.

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:08 pm**

while we’re (read I) am taking a break from solving, any role/game/mechanic shenanigans i should be aware of?

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:09 pm**

no you should spew yourself town by revealing your total ignorance instead

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:10 pm**

Bereft wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:48 pm As far as the cred for the wagon thing, I think Gira is really the only person that I think had minimal incentive.

thoughts here @RondoDimBuckle ??
(also long time no see! hope youre well)

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:12 pm**

i think i already know who im voting today tbqh unless that person directly appeals to me.

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:14 pm**

RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Sun Nov 19, 2023 7:30 pm
Spoiler: show
2 hours 30 to go d2.PNG

recreated as text and copying leetic's PR color idea

RonDubz (1) - TSP
Dizzy (4) - Ranmilia, WWA, pyxxy, leetic
pyxxy (5) - Rondo, ted, Abi, bereft, gira

Rondo, TSP, WWA all with (1) from the shadow votes

--------------

from here:
WWA moves to TSP (1+1) at EOD-2h23m
Rondo moves to TSP (2+1) at EOD-2h15m
Dizzy votes Ran (1) at EOD-2h03m
Dizzy votes idk at EOD-2h02m
Gira moves to TSP (3+1) at EOD-1h59m

VC refresh 1:
RonDubz (1) - TSP
Dizzy (3) - Ranmilia, pyxxy, leetic
TSP (3+1) - WWA, Rondo, Gira
pyxxy (3) - ted, Abi, bereft

---
Rondo moves to Abi (1) at EOD-1h42m
Bereft moves to TSP (3+1) at EOD-1h13m
Rondo moves to Bereft (1) at EOD-1h11m
Rondo moves to ted (1) at EOD-0h59m
Ranmilia moves to TSP (4+1) at EOD-0h57m
Rondo moves to pyxxy (3) at EOD-0h56m

VC refresh 2:
RonDubz (1) - TSP
Dizzy (2) - pyxxy, leetic
TSP (4+1) - WWA, Gira, Bereft, Ranmilia
pyxxy (3) - ted, Abi, Rondo

---
Rondo moves to leetic (1) at EOD-0h31m
Ranmilia moves to Dizzy (3) at EOD-0h20m
Rondo moves to Dizzy (4) at EOD-0h07m

VC refresh 3:
RonDubz (1) - TSP
Dizzy (4) - pyxxy, leetic, Ranmilia, Rondo
TSP (3+1) - WWA, Gira, Bereft
pyxxy (2) - ted, Abi

---
Rondo moves to leetic (1) at EOD-0h05m
Rondo moves to TSP (4+1) at EOD-0h01m
Ranmilia moves to TSP (5+1) at EOD-0h00m
leetic moves to TSP (6+1) at EOD-0h00m and one extra minute late

final VC as we all know:
RonDubz (1) - TSP
Dizzy (1) - pyxxy
TSP (6+1) - WWA, Gira, Bereft, Rondo, Ranmilia, leetic
pyxxy (2) - ted, Abi

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:15 pm**

sorry that took forever I got distracted at least ten times

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:17 pm**

Bereft wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:09 pm no you should spew yourself town by revealing your total ignorance instead

good point.
I sent a note to my innie on day 1. he was a bit of a herb, and i told him as much via a message i write in sharpie on my arm. this morning i woke up with a message that said:

“be weary of the desperate-os”

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:18 pm**

Made wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:17 pm
Bereft wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:09 pm no you should spew yourself town by revealing your total ignorance instead
good point.
I sent a note to my innie on day 1. he was a bit of a herb, and i told him as much via a message i write in sharpie on my arm. this morning i woke up with a message that said:

“be weary of the desperate-os”

or you can reveal your comedic side i guess then

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:24 pm**

Made wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:10 pm
Bereft wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:48 pm As far as the cred for the wagon thing, I think Gira is really the only person that I think had minimal incentive.
thoughts here @RondoDimBuckle ??
(also long time no see! hope youre well)

I would have to clarify what @Bereft means here

I am slogging through a work week, yourself?

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:25 pm**

well so i am a huge fan of the show. So i can say this (bit of a spoiler, but not gonna say who this applies to in the show).

Spoiler: show

But also yeah, wtf is Jack doing…?

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:26 pm**

Made wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:25 pm well so i am a huge fan of the show. So i can say this (bit of a spoiler, but not gonna say who this applies to in the show).

Spoiler: show
There is likely a role that’s outtie (us) is scum aligned, but innie (them) is town aligned.
But also yeah, wtf is Jack doing…?

He apparently told Ranmilia everything in BTSC. But yeah, I would like @Jackofhearts2005 to corroborate some of this himself. Come on, be better than ilario.

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:27 pm**

RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:24 pm
Made wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:10 pm
Bereft wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:48 pm As far as the cred for the wagon thing, I think Gira is really the only person that I think had minimal incentive.
thoughts here @RondoDimBuckle ??
(also long time no see! hope youre well)
I would have to clarify what @Bereft means here

I am slogging through a work week, yourself?

well tbh rondo exists but rondo is not a person im trying to sort
im just saying that most of the people on the wagon can be reasonably construed as wolves trying to grab credit.

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:27 pm**

Spoiler: show

ngl I am cracking up at all my moving around put down on paper

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:28 pm**

lmao wait, I was the wagon yesterday???

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:28 pm**

Made wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:25 pm well so i am a huge fan of the show. So i can say this (bit of a spoiler, but not gonna say who this applies to in the show).

Spoiler: show
There is likely a role that’s outtie (us) is scum aligned, but innie (them) is town aligned.

this is such an on the nose comment

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:29 pm**

Bereft wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:27 pm
RondoDimBuckle wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:24 pm
Made wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:10 pm
Bereft wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:48 pm As far as the cred for the wagon thing, I think Gira is really the only person that I think had minimal incentive.
thoughts here @RondoDimBuckle ??
(also long time no see! hope youre well)
I would have to clarify what @Bereft means here

I am slogging through a work week, yourself?
well tbh rondo exists but rondo is not a person im trying to sort
im just saying that most of the people on the wagon can be reasonably construed as wolves trying to grab credit.

I am annoyed at the lack of movement around the 3 way tie and then the dizzy tie I offered but I guess it was too obvious in hindsight

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:32 pm**

Bereft wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:28 pm
Made wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:25 pm well so i am a huge fan of the show. So i can say this (bit of a spoiler, but not gonna say who this applies to in the show).

Spoiler: show
There is likely a role that’s outtie (us) is scum aligned, but innie (them) is town aligned.

this is such an on the nose comment

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:33 pm**

also i just kinda assumed this…i have an innie…right?

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:34 pm**

Bereft wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:00 pm i have no idea who neon thinks wolves are and this is prolly because i glossed over it

Nah I've decided I don't scum read people anymore cause whenever I express a scum read people yell at me so I only town read now

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:35 pm**

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:34 pm
Bereft wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:00 pm i have no idea who neon thinks wolves are and this is prolly because i glossed over it
Nah I've decided I don't scum read people anymore cause whenever I express a scum read people yell at me so I only town read now

unless youre bussing

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:35 pm**

☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:34 pm
Bereft wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:00 pm i have no idea who neon thinks wolves are and this is prolly because i glossed over it
Nah I've decided I don't scum read people anymore cause whenever I express a scum read people yell at me so I only town read now

But you supposedly wolfread ted and pyxxy?

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:35 pm**

Made wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:32 pm
Bereft wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:28 pm
Made wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:25 pm well so i am a huge fan of the show. So i can say this (bit of a spoiler, but not gonna say who this applies to in the show).

Spoiler: show
There is likely a role that’s outtie (us) is scum aligned, but innie (them) is town aligned.

this is such an on the nose comment

i cant help think the comedy is wolfy but yeah, i already had my opinion made up even before you posted today so it colors my opinion of the comment regardless.

I do think that like Rondo can comment if they want to on it, or maybe anyone else who's paying attention.

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:36 pm**

Made wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:33 pm also i just kinda assumed this…i have an innie…right?

i mean maybe you dont

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:37 pm**

Made wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:35 pm
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:34 pm
Bereft wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:00 pm i have no idea who neon thinks wolves are and this is prolly because i glossed over it
Nah I've decided I don't scum read people anymore cause whenever I express a scum read people yell at me so I only town read now
unless youre bussing

Technically I proved in my last scum game that I am capable of hard defense to lol

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:38 pm**

leetic wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:35 pm
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:34 pm
Bereft wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:00 pm i have no idea who neon thinks wolves are and this is prolly because i glossed over it
Nah I've decided I don't scum read people anymore cause whenever I express a scum read people yell at me so I only town read now
But you supposedly wolfread ted and pyxxy?

Sure before I decided to do this

Posted: **Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:38 pm**

Now I scum read nobody

The Syndicate

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