The Syndicate

My recollection of Tony in Fallout (which, btw, the link goes to sabie's ISO but nbd) while playing was that he was town; he seemed like one of the most helpful, dedicated-to-solving voices in the thread to me, before I died. Obviously that wasn't the case. His play here feels noticeably looser, less forthcoming with ideas, but not all that different. I think I said he didn't match the meta from Fallout before, but I see similarities now.

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:44 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:43 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:40 pm honestly I think the thing you originally said wasn't even that big of a deal, but the convoluted girl genius explanation you gave was just incredibly unbelievable to me. I didn't understand it, it didn't make sense, and it sounds totally made up

Okay so I, instead of shrugging off something I know would have quickly dissipated, decided to come up with a convoluted meta read that I know sounds somewhat incredulous on the spot. It’s unlikely.

please do not mischaracterize the situation. JJJ was actively questioning you about it; a member of the towncore is, in his own words, treating you as outed scum because of what you said. As mafia there, you would absolutely need to think of a way to justify or explain your actions, and if it really was a slip, you wouldn't have any, necessitating that you make up one.

Pawn is 3P because I think Jay is a wolf and Jay is angling to chop Pawn over Colin for no given reason which suggests additional knowledge.

I can make up much better things.

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:48 pm let's talk about your theory that the team is epi/alison/JJJ

why do you believe this is the mafia team

let's set aside the girl genius stuff and just talk about this for now then

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:48 pm you guys really think he made up a reason on the spot after jay's accusation by coming up with a game from a year ago where sprityo happened to be sk? you think that's more likely than that he had already made that association and that's why he had the weird read?


I.... yeah I'm sorry I'm just gonna fully defend tsp here, like I said last night it's in his town meta to have jumpy thoughts like that and this is one that I really don't think he could have faked retroactively lol

i basically just like... agree with this lol

ive decided i don’t care about the pawn 3P thing. its not a slip in the first place and the explanation is believable enough to me (despite being kinda weird) that i dont believe it was faked

so that’s that

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:49 pm Pawn is 3P because I think Jay is a wolf and Jay is angling to chop Pawn over Colin for no given reason which suggests additional knowledge.

I can make up much better things.

ftr that still makes no sense because 3Ps help mafia in that situation and you'd just read pawn as jay's mafia buddy and not 3P if you thought that, so if you had said that I would still have found it unbelievable

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:52 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:48 pm let's talk about your theory that the team is epi/alison/JJJ

why do you believe this is the mafia team

let's set aside the girl genius stuff and just talk about this for now then

Why did I say it then? Spice. But I think there are strong reasons to align you and Epi and decent reasons to align Epi and Jay. Consider how Jay didn’t put Epi into his POE until tonight, doing so now under no real push. You were comfortable leaving Epi just above POE and vice versa. I would bet that two members of those three are wolves, and I would not have bet that on pawn/Colin/wilgy

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:53 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:49 pm Pawn is 3P because I think Jay is a wolf and Jay is angling to chop Pawn over Colin for no given reason which suggests additional knowledge.

I can make up much better things.

ftr that still makes no sense because 3Ps help mafia in that situation and you'd just read pawn as jay's mafia buddy and not 3P if you thought that, so if you had said that I would still have found it unbelievable

you'd just read pawn as town and colin as jay's mafia buddy*, rather

yeah i just... literally don’t care about this at all

its not a slip, the explanation doesn’t seem fake, we can move on with our lives

i don’t think tony is scum tbh

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:17 pm Mafia meta shite:

TonyStarkPrime, mafia in Fallout
TonyStarkPrime, mafia in Persona 5

ColinIsCool, mafia in Easter
ColinIsCool, mafia in Ancient Greece

sabie12, mafia in Fallout
sabie12, mafia in Better Off Ted
sabie12, mafia in Girl Genius

DrWilgy, mafia in Pokemon
nutella, mafia in FTL
nutella, mafia in Vanilla

Epignosis, mafia in Assassin's Creed
Epignosis, mafia in Vanilla

Worth noting in girl genius I should have asked for a sub because I did not participate in it. It's kind if embarrassing how horrible I was in that and fallout as well.
Also worth noting in better off ted I was town then got mislynched right away and then subbed back in on the scum team. Weird circumstances.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:55 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:52 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:48 pm let's talk about your theory that the team is epi/alison/JJJ

why do you believe this is the mafia team

let's set aside the girl genius stuff and just talk about this for now then

Why did I say it then? Spice. But I think there are strong reasons to align you and Epi and decent reasons to align Epi and Jay. Consider how Jay didn’t put Epi into his POE until tonight, doing so now under no real push. You were comfortable leaving Epi just above POE and vice versa. I would bet that two members of those three are wolves, and I would not have bet that on pawn/Colin/wilgy

I am in full agreement that bussing Epi here is within my scum range. But is it within Epi's scum range to bus me? This is the guy who's supposedly bussed his partners like 3-4 times total in his entire career on this site, and he went pretty hard on me. Do you think Epi, who takes such a strong stance against bussing, does it here, and does it so violently?

The second issue here is that you think that Jay and I were trying to keep Epi out of the POE by leaving him just above it. Yet the reason we ended up putting him into it wasn't due to outside pressure from other players, but because of Epi's own behavior in the thread by defending Pawn and then lashing out when questioned about it. Why would we do that, if we were buddied with Epi and trying to keep him out of the POE?

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:56 pm yeah i just... literally don’t care about this at all

its not a slip, the explanation doesn’t seem fake, we can move on with our lives

i don’t think tony is scum tbh

why don't you think tony is scum? just because he has scattered thoughts?

also you think nobody is scum so clearly someone who you don't think is scum is fooling you

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:00 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:56 pm yeah i just... literally don’t care about this at all

its not a slip, the explanation doesn’t seem fake, we can move on with our lives

i don’t think tony is scum tbh

why don't you think tony is scum? just because he has scattered thoughts?

also you think nobody is scum so clearly someone who you don't think is scum is fooling you

well you got me there

but really, i think that his thoughts, although scattered and sometimes hard to follow, are not the product of a scum mind

i believe he’s actually thinking about things in his own way idk

unless we’re all just town

I mean the reason I thought pawn was maybe 3p was only because it seemed like everyone suspected him and there wasn't a lot of pushback against voting him. I mean yeah others voted elsewhere but it didnt seem like anyone was really defending him or anything so I wasn't surprised at the result.

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:05 pm unless we’re all just town

Jack jokingly said there's too many town members haha but a game with no mafia would be pretty crazy. Hopefully some more info will be gleaned from night actions and checks and such.

no pushback against the pawn exe isn't alignment indicative

if pawn is 3P, nobody is pushing back obviously

if pawn is town, scum are obviously going to happily whack him, and townies are going to suspect him (even if wrongly)

if pawn is scum, it's very unsurprising that his teammates prefer to bus him given how heavy the suspicion is that he's come under

so I think lack of pushback makes sense in a lot of different worlds and I don't really think it pointed one way or another wrt pawn's alignment

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 4:37 pm no pushback against the pawn exe isn't alignment indicative

if pawn is 3P, nobody is pushing back obviously

if pawn is town, scum are obviously going to happily whack him, and townies are going to suspect him (even if wrongly)

if pawn is scum, it's very unsurprising that his teammates prefer to bus him given how heavy the suspicion is that he's come under

so I think lack of pushback makes sense in a lot of different worlds and I don't really think it pointed one way or another wrt pawn's alignment

Yes of course all of those scenarios are possible. That was just my perception of it. That's all.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:48 pm I’m tempted to arbitrarily scum read this for giving me scum credit for the disaster that was persona V but not Epi

forgot he was even mafia in that game

Tony can be honest about his Pawn take (at least the sprityo meta portion) and still be a mafioso.

I think folks are giving passes too easily now. Someone has to be mafia, or what the hell are we doing here? If it isn't him, then who is it?

Task:

Everyone seems vaguely town sometimes. I agree with that. This means we cannot rely on "vaguely town" unless we want to both believe in and rely on a world in which Jack bastardized the game so much that the mafia don't even exist.

So, with that in mind, the standard must be different. Tell me who must absolutely be civilians, who you otherwise cannot reasonably see as mafia-aligned, and then who seems town. If you, the general you, cannot produce these tiers, then you have no POE pool at all.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:16 pm Tony can be honest about his Pawn take (at least the sprityo meta portion) and still be a mafioso.

I think folks are giving passes too easily now. Someone has to be mafia, or what the hell are we doing here? If it isn't him, then who is it?

how? if we assume mafia knew pawn was 3P then tony being mafia precludes him from being honest about his pawn take, right? also why does w!tony care to put that take out in the thread? i don’t see what it gets him really since it’s not a thought anyone will follow or give him credit for

idk

idk solving is hard

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:27 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:16 pm Tony can be honest about his Pawn take (at least the sprityo meta portion) and still be a mafioso.

I think folks are giving passes too easily now. Someone has to be mafia, or what the hell are we doing here? If it isn't him, then who is it?

how? if we assume mafia knew pawn was 3P then tony being mafia precludes him from being honest about his pawn take, right? also why does w!tony care to put that take out in the thread? i don’t see what it gets him really since it’s not a thought anyone will follow or give him credit for

idk

I don't know what Tony had read by the time he gave his "hot take". I'll go look. That is relevant. The orange stuff doesn't mean anything to me.

No I agree. If Tony really believed sprityo isn't the third party then that would preclude him from a mafia that features a redirector. He was fully aware of Daisy's conundrum as of that moment.

So the question remains believe or don't believe. I remain stuck at the clash of tone (good) and explanation (bad).

Tony is right that he finds himself stuck in these positions often by way of bad explanations. It's remarkable how much this happens.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:29 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:57 pm I don't see what the rest of you do in Colin, but I think TSP's handling of the Pawn-is-3P thing has been very bad and want him to die first now

o p p o r t u n i s t i c

I did kinda feel this.

The only people that can't be mafia are those that are mechanically cleared. I believe at this moment we have Long Con, Spacedaisy, and Wisp in this category, and that's it. Anybody else/anybody who shouldn't be included?

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:35 pm The only people that can't be mafia are those that are mechanically cleared. I believe at this moment we have Long Con, Spacedaisy, and Wisp in this category, and that's it. Anybody else/anybody who shouldn't be included?

I don't view Long Con or Spacedaisy as mechanically cleared. I view Hally and Wisp as mechanically cleared unless you put them together as mafia. I think all four are civilians anyway, and only have a sliver of doubt about LC.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:35 pm The only people that can't be mafia are those that are mechanically cleared. I believe at this moment we have Long Con, Spacedaisy, and Wisp in this category, and that's it. Anybody else/anybody who shouldn't be included?

Hally is more clear than Daisy imo.

To be clear, a "no" in "hunting?" does not imply that players have not hunted. Instead it means I don't view their hunting volume as enough to say "this indicates a civilian".

man what even is that

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:32 pm No I agree. If Tony really believed sprityo isn't the third party then that would preclude him from a mafia that features a redirector. He was fully aware of Daisy's conundrum as of that moment.

So the question remains believe or don't believe. I remain stuck at the clash of tone (good) and explanation (bad).

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:33 pm Tony is right that he finds himself stuck in these positions often by way of bad explanations. It's remarkable how much this happens.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:35 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:29 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:57 pm I don't see what the rest of you do in Colin, but I think TSP's handling of the Pawn-is-3P thing has been very bad and want him to die first now

o p p o r t u n i s t i c

I did kinda feel this.

secret read

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:52 pm man what even is that

an attempt to put all of my perspectives in one place regarding what reasons there are to trust people

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:53 pm secret read

Spoiler: show

jay is trending down

I don't care. Y'all are exonerating my suspects and I am not a mafioso. Someone has to be, and that means I am going to be more strict about my exonerations.

It's striking that I have nothing at this point to tell me that Epignosis is a civilian. I could have given vague tone credit for the earlier portion of the game, but that hasn't held.

I am getting killed by conference work and may not have time to carry on my interactive reads. I think those are important to sort and more reliably eliminate suspects in/from the pool. If we just rely on surface reads as I am seeing for much of the last page or two, I don't know how we identify mafia at all. It's clearly not working.

I am still stuck on his role, like if its real, its doubtful he is mafia
/shrug

I can make this easier, just confirm Jagged, and that can be my legacy lol

though I wanna try to hit someone more likely to be a wolf, over someone I think has higher chance to be town...
still probably just land on Nutella

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:04 am

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:02 am nanook i think the phrase you’re looking for is “town lean”

It’s considerably stronger

To rephrase....

I saw town indicative behavior from Epi. Epi is good enough to fake that behavior over a short amount of time. If he’s town, the behavior will continue. If he’s mafia, it won’t. So, he’s probably clear, but not 100% clear. Thus, soft locked

I wish I knew precisely what Nanook was referring to, though I understand keep the lips zipped. I do get vague impressions that Epignosis has fallen off since the early game, and I am brought to wonder what Nanook would think.

Check whoever you want Wisp, me or otherwise. I believe in your power role choices.

Any protective role ought to be glued to Wisp.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:17 pm TonyStarkPrime, mafia in Fallout

wrong link

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:51 pm

To be clear, a "no" in "hunting?" does not imply that players have not hunted. Instead it means I don't view their hunting volume as enough to say "this indicates a civilian".

I love evidence. Saved my life, it did!

[mention]sabie12[/mention]
what have your votes been throughout this game?

Nutella it is...
@ Mafia
try to stop be muahaha

Wisp wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:33 pm Nutella it is...
@ Mafia
try to stop be muahaha

[mention]Hally[/mention]
[mention]Spacedaisy[/mention]

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:17 pm TonyStarkPrime, mafia in Fallout
not all that similar
TonyStarkPrime, mafia in Persona 5
kinda similar

ColinIsCool, mafia in Easter
bad comparison since Colin didn't delay showing up so long, but ended up with much more effort
ColinIsCool, mafia in Ancient Greece
maybe vague similarity in pace and tone

sabie12, mafia in Fallout
much thicker word density per post
sabie12, mafia in Better Off Ted
got chopped Day 1 as civilian, replaced back in as mafia, posts immediately became super dense again
sabie12, mafia in Girl Genius
not enough to say

to be continued, keep getting interrupted by fucking phone

sabie is well outside the mafia meta I am seeing here

"replaced back in as mafia"
wtf

what do u mean by super dense?
[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention]

Hally wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:27 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:16 pm Tony can be honest about his Pawn take (at least the sprityo meta portion) and still be a mafioso.

I think folks are giving passes too easily now. Someone has to be mafia, or what the hell are we doing here? If it isn't him, then who is it?

how? if we assume mafia knew pawn was 3P then tony being mafia precludes him from being honest about his pawn take, right? also why does w!tony care to put that take out in the thread? i don’t see what it gets him really since it’s not a thought anyone will follow or give him credit for

idk

we actually don't know that mafia knows pawn is 3P. it could be an uncontrolled or randomized redirect

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 5:51 pm

To be clear, a "no" in "hunting?" does not imply that players have not hunted. Instead it means I don't view their hunting volume as enough to say "this indicates a civilian".

i don't understand the basis of many of these reads

like why do you have an opinion about my tone

really I think that table would make like way more sense if you would just put "nil" in the fields where you obviously don't have much of an opinion and/or your opinion doesn't factor too much into your opinion of the person

like what is wisp's "tone"? does it matter? does it affect the read on her or her status in the game at all? i feel like there's no meaningful distinction between writing a yes and a no for the tone field for wisp and i would have no idea what you meant by a yes or a no either way. it should be a nil instead of you forcing yourself to make up your mind or think whether or not wisp's tone is good

(i don't know why i slipped into feminine pronouns for wisp there, I think it's because I know someone else called wisp who goes by she/her. apologies if I misgendered you by accident)