Re: Pandas vs Trash Pandas [Day 1]
Posted: Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:30 pm
If this is a math test, I'm gonna fail
Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
How do we make sure the 1 player is town?hollowkatt wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:30 pm there's 40 saves vs the trash pandas. N1they get 1 kill. N2 they get 2. This pattern repeats.
Trash Pandas win when they kill nanook. We win when they're all gone. Obvs it makes sense to have some amount of protection going on nanook every night, and we have the saves to do it. As the game goes on there'll be people less likely to be pandas, we don't save them.
There will be people more likely to be pandas, we save them.
What we don't do is play games with how we're saving. Conservative play here I think makes the most sense. On even nights we need 2 people on nanook, odd nights only one. There should be nights where some pandas don't save at all.
We're really fucked up if we choose three mafia as our trusty players.falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:38 pm I'd think we need min 3, possibly 4 players assigned to save Nook.
2 seems to easy for Maf to penetrate, but 3 should work I'd think
yeah, absolutely. So what we ought to do is create groups of 4. We shouldn't create these groups till like 20ish hours or so have elapsed in the game day so that we'll have some kinds of reads, but we create groups of 4.falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:36 pmHow do we make sure the 1 player is town?hollowkatt wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:30 pm there's 40 saves vs the trash pandas. N1they get 1 kill. N2 they get 2. This pattern repeats.
Trash Pandas win when they kill nanook. We win when they're all gone. Obvs it makes sense to have some amount of protection going on nanook every night, and we have the saves to do it. As the game goes on there'll be people less likely to be pandas, we don't save them.
There will be people more likely to be pandas, we save them.
What we don't do is play games with how we're saving. Conservative play here I think makes the most sense. On even nights we need 2 people on nanook, odd nights only one. There should be nights where some pandas don't save at all.
Cuz surely you've thought of a Maf claiming to save Nook and then...not saving Nook.
We need redundancies each night so Maf don't take control of save position
Smh HK, here we go againhollowkatt wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:20 pmyes, yes it is. Guillo lock town never rescinding.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:14 pmIs this a dumbtell?Guillotine wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:10 pm Im telling you right now, i aint attempting to save anyone in this game but myself, i believes in flips over saves.
We can rotate them each night. Using an RNG might be the best way to make it less likely Maf becoming the Nook Safety Team, which we can now refer to as the NST for convenience sakeCreature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:39 pmWe're really fucked up if we choose three mafia as our trusty players.falcon45ca wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:38 pm I'd think we need min 3, possibly 4 players assigned to save Nook.
2 seems to easy for Maf to penetrate, but 3 should work I'd think
yeah only this time I'm town!Guillotine wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:43 pmSmh HK, here we go againhollowkatt wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:20 pmyes, yes it is. Guillo lock town never rescinding.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:14 pmIs this a dumbtell?Guillotine wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:10 pm Im telling you right now, i aint attempting to save anyone in this game but myself, i believes in flips over saves.
You know what i think about plans? They help wolves, what if we just do whatever the fuck we want and be unpredictable, that way the wolves cant predict our moves, yah? Cool!Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:29 pmI thought about something like this:
Odd-nights: wolves have one kill. Therefore, we nominate three trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice (1/3 or 1/4) to protect someone else they expect wolves would try to kill.
Even-nights: wolves have two kills. Therefore, we nominate four or five trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice.
I think one strategy is to make players who expect to die earlier to save first. I think the trusty players should be those most likely to be nightkilled early and the everybody else, instead of a dice, decides if they're likely to die (either to nightkill or lynch) and if they are they protect someone they expect wolves to nightkill.
We run the risk of running out of saves though. It's better we coordinate so we can save some for lategame.Guillotine wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:46 pmYou know what i think about plans? They help wolves, what if we just do whatever the fuck we want and be unpredictable, that way the wolves cant predict our moves, yah? Cool!Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:29 pmI thought about something like this:
Odd-nights: wolves have one kill. Therefore, we nominate three trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice (1/3 or 1/4) to protect someone else they expect wolves would try to kill.
Even-nights: wolves have two kills. Therefore, we nominate four or five trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice.
I think one strategy is to make players who expect to die earlier to save first. I think the trusty players should be those most likely to be nightkilled early and the everybody else, instead of a dice, decides if they're likely to die (either to nightkill or lynch) and if they are they protect someone they expect wolves to nightkill.
If wolves can predict 10 dice rolls, I think they deserve the win.Guillotine wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:46 pmYou know what i think about plans? They help wolves, what if we just do whatever the fuck we want and be unpredictable, that way the wolves cant predict our moves, yah? Cool!Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:29 pmI thought about something like this:
Odd-nights: wolves have one kill. Therefore, we nominate three trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice (1/3 or 1/4) to protect someone else they expect wolves would try to kill.
Even-nights: wolves have two kills. Therefore, we nominate four or five trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice.
I think one strategy is to make players who expect to die earlier to save first. I think the trusty players should be those most likely to be nightkilled early and the everybody else, instead of a dice, decides if they're likely to die (either to nightkill or lynch) and if they are they protect someone they expect wolves to nightkill.
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:45 pm Ok, so basic risk calculation indicates that if we all roll 3, and we only save on a 3 (1/3 of the time)... There's a 1.7% probability of mafia winning instantly with a shot on Nanook -> This isn't a viable shot for them.
If we maintain a ~1.5-2% chance each day (just need to calculate the numbers for each amount of pandas), every scenario, should be trivial...
That gives mafia about a 7% chance of winning in by day 4 (exclusive targeting Nanook), 13% chance with 8 days of targeting...
This is a very good number for town, and I think Nanook can kill mafia faster than this.. I have not calculated the probability of us running out of saves, but I would probably do that privately...
Nobody ever saves anyone but Nanook, and nobody ever claims saves.
I don't hate any of this and the math looks like it makes sense. Again I'm thinking along the lines of Secret Hitler type play where we forum a trusted circle and instead of slowly shrinking it to the bare minimum we need to win the game we slowly grow it with additional trusted people.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:46 pm So tonight, we each take a 66% probability of no save, and a 33% probability of saving Nanook - And we just need to check if Pandas have sufficient saves to save other people / themselves.
Wolves can kill somewhere else and that can accelerate their win condition, especially because they're getting two kills in even nights. So we'll need some non-NANOOK saves.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:45 pm Ok, so basic risk calculation indicates that if we all roll 3, and we only save on a 3 (1/3 of the time)... There's a 1.7% probability of mafia winning instantly with a shot on Nanook -> This isn't a viable shot for them.
If we maintain a ~1.5-2% chance each day (just need to calculate the numbers for each amount of pandas), every scenario, should be trivial...
That gives mafia about a 7% chance of winning in by day 4 (exclusive targeting Nanook), 13% chance with 8 days of targeting...
This is a very good number for town, and I think Nanook can kill mafia faster than this.. I have not calculated the probability of us running out of saves, but I would probably do that privately...
Nobody ever saves anyone but Nanook, and nobody ever claims saves.
Killing other players only accelerates the parity wincon. We just need to calculate the best probability forCreature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:50 pmWolves can kill somewhere else and that can accelerate their win condition, especially because they're getting two kills in even nights. So we'll need some non-NANOOK saves.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:45 pm Ok, so basic risk calculation indicates that if we all roll 3, and we only save on a 3 (1/3 of the time)... There's a 1.7% probability of mafia winning instantly with a shot on Nanook -> This isn't a viable shot for them.
If we maintain a ~1.5-2% chance each day (just need to calculate the numbers for each amount of pandas), every scenario, should be trivial...
That gives mafia about a 7% chance of winning in by day 4 (exclusive targeting Nanook), 13% chance with 8 days of targeting...
This is a very good number for town, and I think Nanook can kill mafia faster than this.. I have not calculated the probability of us running out of saves, but I would probably do that privately...
Nobody ever saves anyone but Nanook, and nobody ever claims saves.
Yeah, I'll calculate how much we can allot to that after... And once we all agree on the risk factor, we lock it in and stop playing the mechanics, and just play mafia.
My wolf range is infinite, there is nothing i wouldnt do as a wolf. If you think that im the kind of purist wolf who like Dexter (showtime series) has a code of procedures to achieve a wincon (or in Dexter case a righteous kill), then you haven't learnt anything in the one year you played with me. I'm town here but i dont believe you'd townread me for something i can EASILY fake and use to my advantage if i could if i was a wolf.hollowkatt wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:44 pmyeah only this time I'm town!Guillotine wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:43 pmSmh HK, here we go againhollowkatt wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:20 pmyes, yes it is. Guillo lock town never rescinding.NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:14 pmIs this a dumbtell?Guillotine wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:10 pm Im telling you right now, i aint attempting to save anyone in this game but myself, i believes in flips over saves.
Seriously though, I expect trash panda guillo to know these things and not make those posts even if you're trying to scrape town reads with them. You've got more skills than that and don't need to resort to derps.
Im not this kind of nerd. Math is mot my forté. Anything for players like me, a map or something?NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:45 pm Ok, so basic risk calculation indicates that if we all roll 3, and we only save on a 3 (1/3 of the time)... There's a 1.7% probability of mafia winning instantly with a shot on Nanook -> This isn't a viable shot for them.
If we maintain a ~1.5-2% chance each day (just need to calculate the numbers for each amount of pandas), every scenario, should be trivial...
That gives mafia about a 7% chance of winning in by day 4 (exclusive targeting Nanook), 13% chance with 8 days of targeting...
This is a very good number for town, and I think Nanook can kill mafia faster than this.. I have not calculated the probability of us running out of saves, but I would probably do that privately...
Nobody ever saves anyone but Nanook, and nobody ever claims saves.
Not opposed to this. Waiting 48 hours for a flip feels unbearable.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:05 pm I'm gonna shoot at 24 hour mark every day, first person to complain about it or call it anti-town gets shot today
If you don't follow a plan im gonna shoot you d1, full stopGuillotine wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:46 pmYou know what i think about plans? They help wolves, what if we just do whatever the fuck we want and be unpredictable, that way the wolves cant predict our moves, yah? Cool!Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:29 pmI thought about something like this:
Odd-nights: wolves have one kill. Therefore, we nominate three trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice (1/3 or 1/4) to protect someone else they expect wolves would try to kill.
Even-nights: wolves have two kills. Therefore, we nominate four or five trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice.
I think one strategy is to make players who expect to die earlier to save first. I think the trusty players should be those most likely to be nightkilled early and the everybody else, instead of a dice, decides if they're likely to die (either to nightkill or lynch) and if they are they protect someone they expect wolves to nightkill.
You can be red panda all you want, you are not my boss. Get the hell out of hereNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:10 pmIf you don't follow a plan im gonna shoot you d1, full stopGuillotine wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:46 pmYou know what i think about plans? They help wolves, what if we just do whatever the fuck we want and be unpredictable, that way the wolves cant predict our moves, yah? Cool!Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:29 pmI thought about something like this:
Odd-nights: wolves have one kill. Therefore, we nominate three trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice (1/3 or 1/4) to protect someone else they expect wolves would try to kill.
Even-nights: wolves have two kills. Therefore, we nominate four or five trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice.
I think one strategy is to make players who expect to die earlier to save first. I think the trusty players should be those most likely to be nightkilled early and the everybody else, instead of a dice, decides if they're likely to die (either to nightkill or lynch) and if they are they protect someone they expect wolves to nightkill.
If you're not gonna play the game in a way that allows town to win then I'm just gonna shoot you lolGuillotine wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:12 pmYou can be red panda all you want, you are not my boss. Get the hell out of hereNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:10 pmIf you don't follow a plan im gonna shoot you d1, full stopGuillotine wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:46 pmYou know what i think about plans? They help wolves, what if we just do whatever the fuck we want and be unpredictable, that way the wolves cant predict our moves, yah? Cool!Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:29 pmI thought about something like this:
Odd-nights: wolves have one kill. Therefore, we nominate three trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice (1/3 or 1/4) to protect someone else they expect wolves would try to kill.
Even-nights: wolves have two kills. Therefore, we nominate four or five trusty players to protect NANOOK and everybody else rolls a dice.
I think one strategy is to make players who expect to die earlier to save first. I think the trusty players should be those most likely to be nightkilled early and the everybody else, instead of a dice, decides if they're likely to die (either to nightkill or lynch) and if they are they protect someone they expect wolves to nightkill.
the acceptable risk is roughly:NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:55 pmYeah, I'll calculate how much we can allot to that after... And once we all agree on the risk factor, we lock it in and stop playing the mechanics, and just play mafia.
It's not ego. Just because you are confirmed town it does not mean that whatever you come up with is the perfect plan or solve to win the game, pull your head out of your buttocks and work with me. We have had our differences but im not a thrower.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:13 pm Like I don't really want to policy shoot but I also don't want to lose because someone can't follow a plan cause they have too much ego, y'know
Before I forget, who's your town read
K, insulting me isn't the way to go hereGuillotine wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:18 pmIt's not ego. Just because you are confirmed town it does not mean that whatever you come up with is the perfect plan or solve to win the game, pull your head out of your buttocks and work with me. We have had our differences but im not a thrower.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:13 pm Like I don't really want to policy shoot but I also don't want to lose because someone can't follow a plan cause they have too much ego, y'know
It's scum's probability of winning if they target Nanook exclusively.Urist wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:15 pmthe acceptable risk is roughly:NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:55 pmYeah, I'll calculate how much we can allot to that after... And once we all agree on the risk factor, we lock it in and stop playing the mechanics, and just play mafia.
the amount of "winrate" scum loses by missing a kill... minus 1%