Bread Mafia [Game Over]

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Maybe because why not for you, but for me it’s because they ended up not being viable.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Not because “why not”

Because people kept abandoning ship and making made nonviable

okay

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Not because “why not”

Because people kept abandoning ship and making made nonviable

yeah no the ~wagonomics~ point to him for sure

Without a red flip this is meaningless to me

[nutella]

i mean i was agreeing with you

i mean wagonomics in the sense that his wagon would often not stick as you were saying, combined with the fact he was a counter to mischops

[nutella]

but it's true "counter to mischops" isn't always necessarily w

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

i mean i was agreeing with you

i mean wagonomics in the sense that his wagon would often not stick as you were saying, combined with the fact he was a counter to mischops

Yeah no I get what you’re saying

I’m not saying it cause I don’t think that kind of thing is particularly meaningful without a red flip

But I also think made is >rand mafia so idc push it for whatever reason works for you

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Omega's progression on Ellie (much of it, not every single post):

Spoiler: show

DAY 0/1

sorry for not replying Michelle, i was in therapy which uses my phone

mood

I don't like killing Ellie over scum reads I have meh

I don't like killing Ellie over scum reads I have meh

if you could vig kill someone immediately who would you kill

Every time someone asked me this, I used to say "myself" for the memes

but I am no longer a depressed kid so no more memes

I'd choose LC, I think I can give Grogu a bit more time though he'd be second

Honestly I'd think about killing Made as well, based solely off the fact his reads are so wild to me. I don't see any reason to kill the people he listed.

alrighty. would you say ellie is a town read?

I'm not sure I'd call it a town read, just more of everytime I've come across an ellie post, I feel fine about it

DAY 2

Yeah Ellie is mafia btw gl with the game

I am surprised everyone is voting ellie

I'm surprised everyone is voting Ellie today

I'm surprised everyone is voting Ellie today

why?

Why not?

if you don't have a legitimate answer for this you're probably just outed when Ellie flips scum

lol

this is a 5head take

Well the surprise was with the fact people don't seem to take much evaluation time to overlook the game and rethink certain interactions after flips, and instead start the day piling onto an individual from outdated info.

Which is interesting to think about why certain people are doing this

what? You literally started the day saying Ellie is mafia

Hmm, you seem to be confused somewhere.

I have no problem saying Ellie is mafia, and trying to discuss with other players about that. Though you can see that I didn't vote right? I said I'm surprised everyone is ripping off Ellie votes so early, something that I didn't do even though I think they are likely mafia.

You act as if I was doing what I said I found surprising

I am fairly surprised that someone could read my beginning today as a mafia aligned with ellie. FMPOV it seems so obvious, and even when I look at it objectively the "doom is mafia with ellie after the post" doesn't make sense in a vaccum.

I am wondering if the 3 people talking about that are mafia pushing some kind of agenda that doesn't really need to be set in realistic terms, or just wrong town views

I find that my reads are so contrarian that posting them would just get me scum read, but I don't play mafia like a scared person.

SPF
Alison
Koba
Esooa
Michelle
tutuu
Nanook
Grogu
Jay
Made
Nutella
Ellie

I am still thinking about Ellie, but I am open to voting Michelle soonish

I mean I'm prob voting Ellie, but people will hammer michelle so who cares

I don't feel confident in my reads, although I am hesitant to vote off Michelle because the others I see as sus are voting Michelle

tricky

Who are your suspects?

Ellie Nutella Grogu Nanook could all be mafia fmpov

Makes voting you not so good

I'd rather just vote Ellie who is like rand>>>scum to me at least

I'm just voting Ellie

I'd like to fight harder now to kill mafia ellie, but I also want to flip Michelle so I can bury Nutella if I am correct about them

im changing my vote to made, i think the likelihood of him being scum is higher than Mich

Explain this in good detail.

You and Michelle could easily be teammates, and if Ellie can't genuinely give an explanation we just kill them both.

I spent some time to reread Ellie, and day one is still beyond awful for her.

Then going into this day, I wanted some kind of fire and grand reevaluation after the d1 flip. Instead she came in like a scared wolf, and continued this behavior because she wanted to kiss hands and make friends to try and live. It's a complete tone change from d1 to d2 because she knows she is in a bad spot. I would want a town to push their reads and continue to solve and just say "I was wrong on LC let me rethink" instead of acting like this.

Vote:EllieDelight

Ellie cfd would be my prerogative

Since people don't seem to want to kill Ellie today, I am moving my vote to Michelle.

Ellie is voting Made, I think Made has more town points than Michelle, and I don't want to be off wagon on days like this

Wait? Are we going Ellie?

Ellie reminds me of Monstr in a game 5 years ago where he was being voted over someone who he hard pocketed. Monstr was upset that the other person wasn't being killed before him because that other player was being scummy and even defending Monstr.

Who asked me reads?

I am fairly confident that Ellie is mafia.

Made/Michelle less so, but have small things that are scummy.

I think Ellie's partners is more like Nanook+1

doom/made I tr so much I'm probably not even going there if Ellie flips green

We don't have to worry about the second part so

ngl my mind will be blown if ellie is town

There's a pretty severe shift in perspective through Night 1 (from a pseudo-town read D1 to a hard mafia read D2), and I'm not entirely clear on what brought that on. Omega you ought to talk more about that -- what sold you on Ellie being mafia that inspired your first post of Day 2?

I also highlighted a thing in orange in which you called Ellie's Day 1 "still beyond awful". This contrasts your view of her ON Day 1, and it'd be super to get a better understanding of your mindset.

[staypositivefriend]

how many mischops can we afford before we would go to LYLO?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Omega, I'd also appreciate you talking about your read on Made, primarily via these two posts:

I find that my reads are so contrarian that posting them would just get me scum read, but I don't play mafia like a scared person.

SPF
Alison
Koba
Esooa
Michelle
tutuu
Nanook
Grogu
Jay
Made
Nutella
Ellie

Since people don't seem to want to kill Ellie today, I am moving my vote to Michelle.

Ellie is voting Made, I think Made has more town points than Michelle, and I don't want to be off wagon on days like this

They're separated by like 18 hours. What happened in the game that swapped your comparative views of Made and Michelle?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

how many mischops can we afford before we would go to LYLO?

2 unless i can't count, which is a legitimate possibility right now

p sure 2

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

how many mischops can we afford before we would go to LYLO?

9/3

So we have to hit on 3 in 5 the rest of the game, which is 1 in the next 3

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Which yeah means we’ll probably lose but we can at least maybe not get swept

[JaggedJimmyJay]

towns come back from two bad chops all the time meh good vibes only

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I am already confirming my own bias and gaining confidence in an Omega/Made partnership

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Meh

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

If there’s a rollblock this game is winnable

If there isn’t it’s winnable but probably hard

Hopefully there’s a rollblock

Should also be clear that if you’re in the POE and claim a rollblock later than 24 hours after SOD you die

[Made]

hi friends!

how'd we all sleep?

[Made]

if i could vig someone right now it would be Made

that'd be pretty rude ngl

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

On the one hand made playing scum like this would be wild

On the other hand I’m still tunneled

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Oh

I think I know what setup we’re in

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I am already confirming my own bias and gaining confidence in an Omega/Made partnership

I'll expand on this later. I'd rather let Omega answer the questions I already posed before I spam her with a huge case.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

how'd we all sleep?

poorly

[Marmot]

A question has been asked that I will answer here. The mafia may not skip their nightkill.

[Made]

everyone tag yourselves!!!
I'm the president
ellie and michelle are the snipers
tutuu, esooa, and DK are the robbers
role claim: cop
game setup: A
green check: Michelle
red check: the person roleblocked

[JaggedJimmyJay]

bless you Made, if that's true then you've spared me hours of wasted time on bad theories

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Much more likely we’re in C

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Eh maybe not much more likely

But a bit more likely at least

[JaggedJimmyJay]

i know i'm in a weird mood when i jam really hard to the laser beam hip hop video

[Made]

way i see it, there's a mafia between tutuu and nutella. gut read is both tbh, but theory based read is tutuu trying to pull a alison "I HAVE A BARGON" from MC then completely fluffing her "meta change" as the game goes on to not be in the style of Bike

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Sorry sorry sorry D

[Made]

Eh maybe not much more likely

But a bit more likely at least

if we were c i would of been a night 1 green check, prob on like JJJ.

but counterfactuals are dangerous

[Made]

Sorry sorry sorry D

i really doubt there's a jailer based on how towns been playing

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Jesus fuck. NOT c or d

1

I’m too fucking tired

[Grogu]

That sucked last night. Sorry Ellie
At least we got a save today

[JaggedJimmyJay]

if the mafia have a vig kill and they haven't used it yet they kinda wack

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Jesus fuck. NOT c or d

1

I’m too fucking tired

Nope wrong again, 3

I’m clearly firing on all cylinders right now

[Grogu]

everyone tag yourselves!!!
I'm the president
ellie and michelle are the snipers
tutuu, esooa, and DK are the robbers
role claim: cop
game setup: A
green check: Michelle
red check: the person roleblocked

Does this make any sense?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Jesus fuck. NOT c or d

1

I’m too fucking tired

don't think 1 has a way to stop a kill

[JaggedJimmyJay]

lol

[Made]

if the mafia have a vig kill and they haven't used it yet they kinda wack

mafia might of got blocked and used vig kill and mafia kill from the same person.

don't give this the kinda weight you might give everything else i've said so far

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

ANYWAYS

We’re very likely in 3 or A and have a red check

God I hope that’s the case

If we have a JK instead, JK still shouldn’t claim until/unless they’re about to die

[JaggedJimmyJay]

if you're a role blocker out there and you have a confirmed mafia, i concur with Nanook that it'd be best to reveal it sooner than later. we could use Day 3 to check all of the interactions and get a head start on the other two

[Made]

but yeah let's start here:
[VOTE: tutuu] aubergine

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

If we do have a JK they should do their best not to claim if at all possible, and RNG their save between made and Michelle

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The possibility of setup 3 means Michelle isn't wholly confirmed (godfather), but if we can kill a GF ahead of her she will be so that's swell.

This assumes Made is truthful. I believe him

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

So town rn is

Made/Michelle

Esooa/nutella/DK

Need three more for auto I think

[JaggedJimmyJay]

So town rn is

Made/Michelle

Esooa/nutella/DK

Need three more for auto I think

i'm right here bb

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

The possibility of setup 3 means Michelle isn't wholly confirmed (godfather), but if we can kill a GF ahead of her she will be so that's swell.

This assumes Made is truthful. I believe him

Never concerned at all about that until f3, odds of godfather being checked even if in the game are very low. Just treat Michelle as confirmed town for now imo


No reason to doubt made imo, mafia don’t need to try to go 1 for 1 this early

[Made]

what the a-

obv we can't trust Nutella and Esooa right now

imo Nutella, Tutuu, and Nanook are POE. this is the most active Nanook's been all game.

this is a deep wolf game. Period.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

So town rn is

Made/Michelle

Esooa/nutella/DK

Need three more for auto I think

i'm right here bb

Unfortunately for us we’ve spent two days pushing on a likely cop so

No towncore for us until we get a pelt probably