Phenon: Origins Mafia [END]

[Spooky Ghost]

Well this isn't really the same reason why I was against Delta lynch at first but I don't think Delta is a solo baddie based on the semi relevant kills and lack of posts and presumably not being caught up, and after today there aren't many possible partners for Delta partners.

If there are two mafia left then lynching Delta will end the game, G+H are the two that make the most sense as mafia, pairwise. Even if we assume that there is only one mafia left and Delta isn't them, lynching someone other than Delta will help us narrow down who the real mafia is.

I really don't understand how you're coming to this conclusion.

Well.... tell me any other pair of players that could be a pair of mafia and I'll redact it.

[Echo]

I'll switch my vote to Delta I suppose. Not feeling Bravo anymore anyway. I really don't know who the baddie is right now. Damn you for being good at this game, whoever you are, lol.

[Echo]

Look, someone had to throw some heat your way for something. I'm trying.

I'm listening. Tell me where your head is at here.

I'm not sure I even believe any of it; I just thought you have hardly gotten any heat all game and I had to come up with some explanation for your behavior if you are indeed the bad one.

[sprityo]

we will be having a Christmas intermission after today, the night will be extended 24 hours for the holiday festivities

[Julinook]

I'll switch my vote to Delta I suppose. Not feeling Bravo anymore anyway. I really don't know who the baddie is right now. Damn you for being good at this game, whoever you are, lol.

Please explain your change of heart.

linki: okay. Where do your reads currently sit overall?

[Julinook]

we will be having a Christmas intermission after today, the night will be extended 24 hours for the holiday festivities

Thank goodness, bless you sprityo.

[Echo]

Well this isn't really the same reason why I was against Delta lynch at first but I don't think Delta is a solo baddie based on the semi relevant kills and lack of posts and presumably not being caught up, and after today there aren't many possible partners for Delta partners.

If there are two mafia left then lynching Delta will end the game, G+H are the two that make the most sense as mafia, pairwise. Even if we assume that there is only one mafia left and Delta isn't them, lynching someone other than Delta will help us narrow down who the real mafia is.

I really don't understand how you're coming to this conclusion.

Well.... tell me any other pair of players that could be a pair of mafia and I'll redact it.

Well, that's sort of my point I guess; I don't think there is a pair. But anyway, like I said, if there is a pair, if I were you I would think it's two people specifically not making a concerted effort at a power play. I guess you and Bravo or you and Golf are theoretically possible in that regard.

[Echo]

I'll switch my vote to Delta I suppose. Not feeling Bravo anymore anyway. I really don't know who the baddie is right now. Damn you for being good at this game, whoever you are, lol.

Please explain your change of heart.

linki: okay. Where do your reads currently sit overall?

I don't really know anymore. Whichever one of is us bad, assuming it's not Delta, is just doing a really good job of it. I suppose I'm feeling something like....

Bravo

Alpha

Golf

but those colors could just as easily be slightly different shades of green because the real problem is I feel like everyone is some degree of townish, but I also realize we're at the point in the game where none of us are above suspicion.

[Spooky Ghost]

I really just want today to end well. Maybe I'm only seeing Hotel and Golf as a team cus it's the worst case scenario and I'm afraid of it. If those two (or actually either of them +Bravo) are the mafia then they've pretty much already won. So maybe the correct move now really is to hope we're dealing with a lone wolf and make things harder for that player on day 5?

[Echo]

I throw my hands up in the air at this point. I hope it's Delta and that just ends the game because otherwise we're pretty much losing since I can't seem to convince any of you all that it's not me.

[Echo]

I really just want today to end well. Maybe I'm only seeing Hotel and Golf as a team cus it's the worst case scenario and I'm afraid of it. If those two (or actually either of them +Bravo) are the mafia then they've pretty much already won. So maybe the correct move now really is to hope we're dealing with a lone wolf and make things harder for that player on day 5?

Yeah, agreed.

I really understand your paranoia though; I keep running through all of you being bad, and pairs of you all being bad, and I technically can't rule any of them out even if I think a pair is unlikely. Hopefully that's not just wishful thinking.

[Julinook]

I don't really know anymore. Whichever one of is us bad, assuming it's not Delta, is just doing a really good job of it. I suppose I'm feeling something like....

Bravo

Alpha

Golf

but those colors could just as easily be slightly different shades of green because the real problem is I feel like everyone is some degree of townish, but I also realize we're at the point in the game where none of us are above suspicion.

You may have already explained, but it's easier to talk in real-time: what makes Golf the lowest rainbow rank for you?

[Spooky Ghost]

I throw my hands up in the air at this point. I hope it's Delta and that just ends the game because otherwise we're pretty much losing since I can't seem to convince any of you all that it's not me.

I really don't have any solid reason not to suspect anyone at this point. I came into this day phase trusting Bravo completely and now I only trust him like 70%> I've been away from a computer for the entire last day phase so I haven't even been able to ISO otherwise I'd have probably been an even more paranoid mess, actually.

[Julinook]

I really just want today to end well. Maybe I'm only seeing Hotel and Golf as a team cus it's the worst case scenario and I'm afraid of it. If those two (or actually either of them +Bravo) are the mafia then they've pretty much already won. So maybe the correct move now really is to hope we're dealing with a lone wolf and make things harder for that player on day 5?

If there's one mafia left and it's not Delta, who is it?

[Echo]

I don't really know anymore. Whichever one of is us bad, assuming it's not Delta, is just doing a really good job of it. I suppose I'm feeling something like....

Bravo

Alpha

Golf

but those colors could just as easily be slightly different shades of green because the real problem is I feel like everyone is some degree of townish, but I also realize we're at the point in the game where none of us are above suspicion.

You may have already explained, but it's easier to talk in real-time: what makes Golf the lowest rainbow rank for you?

It's a new placement, actually, as of right now. POE basically. Your response to my poo thing seemed legit and Alpha has appeared pretty genuine throughout this phase as well. Now I feel like it's my turn to tinfoil Golf, lol. I suppose Golf's suspicion of Alpha did seem a bit forced and the interactions with the "baddies" may be the worst. It's probably recency bias based on which one of you I've most recently interacted with.

[Echo]

Well, I have to go. Best of luck. Hopefully the game will be over when I return but I'm not holding my breath. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, all.

[Julinook]

Let's hope that Christmas extension won't be necessary.

[Spooky Ghost]

I really just want today to end well. Maybe I'm only seeing Hotel and Golf as a team cus it's the worst case scenario and I'm afraid of it. If those two (or actually either of them +Bravo) are the mafia then they've pretty much already won. So maybe the correct move now really is to hope we're dealing with a lone wolf and make things harder for that player on day 5?

If there's one mafia left and it's not Delta, who is it?

Probably.... Golf? Hotel has seemed genuine today at times and you've seemed genuine forever.

[Spooky Ghost]

Also if Golf is the last wolf then the mafia spelled out the word JIG.

[Spooky Ghost]

jeg....

[Lunatella]

My current thoughts:

I didn't like the way Hotel went hard after Bravo, it felt like scum trying to cast as much shade around as possible. Franky it made me pause, and in combination with feeling like for a while there Alpha may have actually been just a tinfoil townie it kind of made me feel way more wary of him. But now Alpha is trending back towards this let's lynch Golf or Hotel thing. Which I really hate because lynching any civ other than Delta will likely make this game a civ loss. There is a chance Hotel is bad, but I am not bad. Lynching me will net the civs a loss.

I am assuming your focus on a pair of active baddies is the caution you have been discussing, Alpha. However, I am still of the opinion that if there are two living baddies (which is absolutely possible) it is most likely that Delta is one of them.

I just cannot in anyway imagine Bravo being bad, and from the way you and Hotel have behaved I don't see you as teammates either. Your only risk here is basically me and Hotel but I am not bad. And again, if you look at all the possibilities the greatest risk is in leaving Delta alive. There is only one circumstance in which lynching Delta ends the game and I am 100% confident it's not the case.

I'm clearly not moving my vote.

As for tomorrow, if Delta's lynch doesn't end the game I am looking equally at Hotel or Alpha right now. This is based totally upon today's actions/conversations.

[Spooky Ghost]

Golf do you think Juliet was a civ or mafia?

[Spooky Ghost]

that's like the third time you've done this.

[Spooky Ghost]

If this were a competition for who can fuck up sockpuppet usage the most frequently you and I might be tied.

[Lunatella]

[sprityo]

Ssssh you didn’t see anything

[sprityo]

Delta has been lynched

It is now night 4 day starts 10pm December 26th, or 48 hours

[Julinook]

Damn. It would have been lovely to be finished with this for Christmas.

At least the game apparently isn't lost. So Delta was either a civilian with one baddie alive or teamed with a living baddie. The lynch will be firmly in the hands of active civilians after the night and the game can be won. It's a relief to have a longer night, and I am not going to be around much if at all on Christmas day. Everyone is a suspect and I will go over the whole thread again when time permits before this night is over and see where I end up. I encourage everyone to do the same.

For now, merry Christmas folks!

[Spooky Ghost]

I'm guessing that based on the fact that Sprityo even bothered to extend the night that we don't have 2 active baddies, if we did then the game would be over as soon as the next kill happened so there'd be no real purpose in extending it.

So it kinda seems like all of the anxiety I had over the last 48 hours was a waste of time.

[Spooky Ghost]

So to expand on this now: players will be given a sockpuppet account, the names currently will just be the phonetic alphabet, with portraits being the corresponding character. This can change if people are interested in submitting a portrait of a scientist/bodyguard/normal person for themselves. (It doesn’t have to be good I promise)

I know it's late in the game and the game but is it cool if I change my avatar to this picture of the popular scientist character ALF from TV fame?

[sprityo]

go ahead

[Julinook]

The only way that voting Delta would be the end of the gave is if there are two mafia still living and Delta isn't one of them. And I know I'm civ. I believe strongly that Bravo is civ and to a lesser extent Hotel. Until you started pushing this plan to vote someone other than Delta, I would have trusted you more than Hotel but you leap frogged past him. I am of the belief that either Delta is a lone baddie, Delta is a baddie with an active teammate, or Delta is civ and there is one living active baddie. I think it is unlikely there are two baddies and neither one is Delta. If that is the case we are screwed, because someone has fooled me extremely well and frankly they would deserve a win. I don't think it's the case though. You are trying too hard to push us a certain direction. Either Delta is a lone baddie and you are tinfoiling, which to be clear is my first line of thought, or you or to a lesser extent possibly Hotel are Delta's teammate.

I haven't said it was dependent at all. In fact I have said repeatedly that my first line of thought (because I want to trust you here, I really do) is that Delta is the last baddie. But I find the fact you are pushing a lynch of an unknown active over an unknown inactive. The risk in the first is one scenario, whereas the risk in the second is like two or three times as much, just going by how many scenarios lead to end game for us if we lynch anyone other than him. That is what makes me suspicious of you. I know my role, I know that I'm not bad. I think it's highly unlikely Bravo is bad. I used to think that if you too until your recent push. I don't think Hotel is bad but I'm not 100% confident in that. But I highly doubt he's on a team with you so I am left with Delta being the absolute right choice. He's either lone baddie or he has a deep wolf teammate. Before today I would have said Hotel, your actions this day phase make me really question you now though.

My current thoughts:

I didn't like the way Hotel went hard after Bravo, it felt like scum trying to cast as much shade around as possible. Franky it made me pause, and in combination with feeling like for a while there Alpha may have actually been just a tinfoil townie it kind of made me feel way more wary of him. But now Alpha is trending back towards this let's lynch Golf or Hotel thing. Which I really hate because lynching any civ other than Delta will likely make this game a civ loss. There is a chance Hotel is bad, but I am not bad. Lynching me will net the civs a loss.

I am assuming your focus on a pair of active baddies is the caution you have been discussing, Alpha. However, I am still of the opinion that if there are two living baddies (which is absolutely possible) it is most likely that Delta is one of them.

I just cannot in anyway imagine Bravo being bad, and from the way you and Hotel have behaved I don't see you as teammates either. Your only risk here is basically me and Hotel but I am not bad. And again, if you look at all the possibilities the greatest risk is in leaving Delta alive. There is only one circumstance in which lynching Delta ends the game and I am 100% confident it's not the case.

I'm clearly not moving my vote.

As for tomorrow, if Delta's lynch doesn't end the game I am looking equally at Hotel or Alpha right now. This is based totally upon today's actions/conversations.

Golf, you have voiced some strongly worded civilian reads on me in recent memory. It isn't clear why you feel what way. Please tell me what has brought you to this conclusion.

[Julinook]

Look, someone had to throw some heat your way for something. I'm trying.

I'm listening. Tell me where your head is at here.

I'm not sure I even believe any of it; I just thought you have hardly gotten any heat all game and I had to come up with some explanation for your behavior if you are indeed the bad one.

Hotel, this post implies that the suspicion you threw at me last phase was for the sake of pressure given that I have not been placed under the microscope as much in this game. That is fine in principle, but I struggle to reconcile that notion with this post:

Dammit Alpha, vote Bravo with me. It has to be him.

This came before I had had the opportunity to get into the thread and answer to your accusations, and it looks to me like an attempt to generate my lynch. Pointedly seeking votes on me is not the same thing as making me answer to accusations. The former represents active lynching effort and the latter represents issuing a challenge for the sake of thoroughness.

How would you reconcile this?

[Julinook]

My running theory rn is that G/H are W/W. I want to hear Bravo's thoughts on the pairing in light of Golf's recent posts, but as of now I think that either one of them is our best bet.

Alpha, you asked for my thoughts on the Hotel/Golf pairing here while you were still strongly considering it as the driver of your vote. When I made my brief appearance earlier on Christmas Eve I answered with my thoughts on the pairing. I expressed a couple hangups: that my prior examination of their pairing required some WIFOM to look bad (and that I felt it was more indicative of a non-teammate relationship), and that their pairing would require that Juliet was good (assuming a bad Echo).

I don't believe you spoke about this prior to asking me to aid you in your crusade:

Hey Bravo buddy I'm pretty sure the mafia is Golf and maybe/probably Hotel. Do you want to coordinate this shit and vote for one of them?

This concerns me given the likelihood you previously attributed to Juliet having been bad.

I realize that you had stated your intent to handle the phase cautiously, under the assumption that two mafia members remained alive. That is a bit different however from actively pursuing a specific theory of a living pairing (Golf/Hotel) which would have to stand against the conceptualization of the game you had previously adopted (Juliet and Echo = bad).

When you were pushing for a lynch of either Golf or Hotel, did you change your mind about Juliet? Where did the matter of Juliet play into your theory about Hotel and Golf? It isn't clear that you incorporated this portion of the game concept into your crusade despite my having raised the point after you called for my thoughts on your theory.

[Spooky Ghost]

Whether or not we were correct about Juliet didn't factor in to my push of hotel golf, or more accurately it factored in equally regardless of whether they were civ or mafia.

The way I viewed it was that if there were two living mafia then they had to be H&G, if both of them were alive coming into day 5 then we would lose. If there was only one mafia left then eliminating one of H or G would at least narrow down our suspects list moving into night 5 and give us roughly a 50% chance of victory since Delta, despite being a non participant would still cause that day phase to be resolved by tie mechanics rather than being an automatic win for the mafia. At a time when I couldn't go back and look things over or really analyze anything to a satisfying extent, I saw that as our best chance.

I knew that in the case where we had a solo mafia, moving into day 5 with 2 active civs alive would have been more ideal but the fact that the players pushing that idea the hardest were the ones I thought were the most likely to be linked by mafia motive made me really uncomfortable with that.

It appears i was probably wrong... assuming this game doesn't instantly end at the dawn of day 5.

[Spooky Ghost]

Whether or not we were correct about Juliet didn't factor in to my push of hotel golf, or more accurately it factored in equally regardless of whether they were civ or mafia.

In this case "they" refers to juliet

[Julinook]

I knew that in the case where we had a solo mafia, moving into day 5 with 2 active civs alive would have been more ideal but the fact that the players pushing that idea the hardest were the ones I thought were the most likely to be linked by mafia motive made me really uncomfortable with that.

I also pushed for a Delta lynch at least in part given the need for active civilians in an end game phase against a solo baddie. This didn't seem to budge you from your Hotel/Golf theory or your desire to vote in accordance with that theory. You came around in the very end, but only when it had become apparent that Delta was getting lynched regardless.

What drove you to change your mind?

[Spooky Ghost]

well like you said my vote didn't really matter

I wasn't moved by your push for Delta cus I thought you were wrong. I thought lynching Delta was a risky move, and it seemed to me like you were dismissing the risks associated with that choice too easily.

[Spooky Ghost]

I don't know if "change my mind" is really accurate. I changed my vote.

I knew that if I was right about Hotel Golf then we had already lost, my only chance at any result other than a Delta lynch would have been to convince you to agree in my theory in the last hour of the phase, and even then we'd only have a 1/4 chance of victory. That seemed like a lot of work.

I guess it was more like "acceptance" than "agreement".

[sprityo]

Alpha has died in the night

IT IS DAY 5, IT IS LYNCH OR LOSE (LYLO)
you have 48 hours

[Spooky Ghost]

Spoiler: show

rest in fuckin pieces

good luck <3

[Lunatella]

Well... the baddie has done well in surprising me. I thought for sure it was Alpha.

I meant to come in just before the deadline and share my thoughts on what various kills would likely indicate, but I didn't because I was picking my sister up from the airport and forgot once she got here.

I would have bet money on my being killed. Because I believed it was Alpha and that is the most logical kill choice for a baddie Alpha.

Bravo seemed to indicate Hotel was his next choice after Delta, so to kill me makes the most sense if Alpha had been bad. He wasn't so this situation is irrelevant.

I believed that me being alive would indicate Hotel is bad. I'm his most likely shot to convince of anything because I've been the most inclined to give him the botd because I believed him to be civ. However, killing alpha doesn't make sense for Hotel since I have openly indicated that Bravo is my strongest town read. If he was bad, why would he not kill Bravo and cruise to victory knowing I have been very suspicious of Alpha for some time due to his actions in the last lynch? The Alpha kill does not support Hotel being the baddie here. Unless he believed he could convince Bravo I am bad.

I didn't see any reason why any of you would kill Hotel, so I doubted that would even happen.

So that brings me to Bravo, who would be Bravo's most logical kill? I didn't know in that case, and didn't expect it to even be an issue, but here I am now faced with answering that question. I believed the most likely kill for Hotel would be Bravo, but that didn't happen. I have been pretty up front about the fact that Hotel is my next suspect after Alpha. And in my belief that Bravo is civ. I could see a scenario where the baddie is either of you now!

I hate you both. I am leaning Hotel at the moment. But I feel far from confident atm...

[Lunatella]

No I have changed my mind. Bravo. It must be Bravo. I would have bet my life it was Alpha after the game didn't end. The only way Hotel would have kept me alive was if he killed Bravo. He could have easily cruised to victory if he had killed Bravo.

But Bravo could have thought since I was so certain he was civ, to kill Alpha he could convince me of it being Hotel. This was a mistake, though. He should have killed either me or Hotel.

I'm voting Bravo, but I am certainly open to hearing things from both of you.

[Julinook]

I'm the doctor. This game has been infuriating, because I have repeatedly picked the right names to protect at the wrong times, and the mafia have done well to be hard to predict. These were my targets:

Night 1 - Alpha
Night 2 - Charlie
Night 3 - Alpha
Night 4 - Golf

I realize that there's no hard evidence for this now, but it's the truth. I'm putting it all out here to maximize the information we have. I can explain every protection target if needed.

[Julinook]

No I have changed my mind. Bravo. It must be Bravo. I would have bet my life it was Alpha after the game didn't end. The only way Hotel would have kept me alive was if he killed Bravo. He could have easily cruised to victory if he had killed Bravo.

I don't think this conclusion fits the progression of this game thread. Hotel kills me and is left with you and Alpha. You expressed suspicion of Alpha and Hotel as recently as the most recent day, so there's no "cruising" to be had there. I don't like that you're instantly discounting this possibility.

But Bravo could have thought since I was so certain he was civ, to kill Alpha he could convince me of it being Hotel. This was a mistake, though. He should have killed either me or Hotel.

I'm voting Bravo, but I am certainly open to hearing things from both of you.

I asked you recently why you had those strong civilian reads on me and you did not answer me. They were unexplained and stuck into posts almost for the sake of it, and now you're here reversing that read at the very start of a LyLo phase with the other living player being the same guy that hounded my ass just one phase ago. The opportunism is visible.

[Julinook]

My initial perspective is that I hate Golf spending about four minutes deciding their mind is changed after "deliberating" over Hotel and turning on me. That opens the door for Hotel to return to the tinfoil that they'd expressed against me a day ago and help get me offed in a LyLo phase. It's especially troubling given that my activity has had to drop lately given my being busy for the holidays and I am less able to defend myself than I was earlier in the game.

[Julinook]

I still want this addressed ASAP, Hotel. That is the most concerning aspect of your recent post history to me.

[Julinook]

If Golf is mafia, the kill options were:

Alpha
Bravo
Hotel

- Golf kills Alpha, leaving Bravo and Hotel alive. Golf knows I suspect Hotel and might pursue that angle, and has a dual option to either pocket Bravo (ruined by my questioning in the night phase) or turn on me after keeping me alive, playing for support from Hotel who was my biggest critic last day phase. Plausible scenario, albeit challenging

- Golf kills Bravo, leaving Hotel and Alpha. Hotel alone named Golf a leading suspect toward the end of the last day, and Alpha has been a loose cannon suspecting both of them (as a pairing mostly but also individually) and is hard to predict. Plausible scenario, more challenging than previous

- Golf kills Hotel, leaving Alpha and Bravo. Alpha and I have mostly trusted each other the whole game, and turning us against each other despite reservations about Golf would be very difficult. Most challenging scenario

If Hotel is mafia, the kill options were:

Alpha
Bravo
Golf

- Hotel kills Alpha, leaving Golf and Bravo. Hotel would likely not view Golf as an ally in this scenario given Golf's stated civilian reads on me, and thus would more likely be angling for my support against Golf, who I'd connected with Juliet. Since everyone suspected Hotel in some capacity yesterday, this isn't necessarily unbelievable. Plausible scenario, strikes me as more challenging than Golf killing Alpha scenario

- Hotel kills Bravo, leaving Alpha and Golf. In this scenario Hotel would likely be relying upon Alpha's paranoia about each of the two to serve him, hoping that he'd be able to stand taller than Golf in a war of uncertainty at Alpha's expense. Golf's reads also present the possibility of turning on Alpha. Plausible scenario, I think less difficult than previous

- Hotel kills Golf, leaving Alpha and Bravo. Hotel would be attempting to employ WIFOM to work out of a deep hole in a last gasp type play. The window may seem open given Alpha's recent paranoia and slacking trust for me and the tinfoil I'd attract by default. Plausible but quite challenging scenario

[Julinook]

The purpose of that exercise was to determine not only how much sense an Alpha kill makes for each of you, but also how much sense the other options would have made by comparison. Given that, judging the kill at face value, I think Golf as the last baddie makes more sense. Both of you yell at me if you disagree with points I've made.

[Julinook]

I've voted Golf. My vote is not final. I'm using this entire phase to work as much as time allows.