The Syndicate

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:57 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:55 pm like i get why a villager who doesn’t know im town could think he is a wolf but like, he’s not. not ever

There's a civilian voting for you. We need that civilian to vote alongside me. I don't even have any votes right now.

Hi I’m a civilian voting for Hally.

You’re not going to talk me into voting for myself.

Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:58 pm Epi

Why are you so confident that Hally is town

This is an extremely good question. Like he’s willing to turn on a dime and decide this person or that person is scum. For almost no reason.

But the person who has the single strongest case against them? Nah, couldn’t be them.

i want to point out that i was one of dunya’s only/strongest scum reads and dunya strongly favors protecting teammates so that would never happen D1 if we were w/w

just in case you wanna like, actually evaluate whether an epi/me team makes sense

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:57 am i want to point out that i was one of dunya’s only/strongest scum reads and dunya strongly favors protecting teammates so that would never happen D1 if we were w/w

just in case you wanna like, actually evaluate whether an epi/me team makes sense

This is the exact argument you used for why me and tony weren’t a team.

Just saying.

ok well if you’re town your vote is losing us the game, just saying

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 4:23 am sorry guys, i was feeling pretty lousy and turns out i had some food poisoning and im still a little out of it but im here

gth reads without reading the thread, but a few tone-posts from each player here we go

112 - w
Arete - t
Ash Lael - w
DrWilgy - t
Hally - w
Long Con - t
Michelle - w
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - t
Poison Chan - t
tedxtr - w
TonyStarkPrime - t
TripleHaven - t
tutuu - t
Vulgard - t

my poe is
112
ash
hally
michelle
ted

i wanna say my strongest town reads are nanook and longcon tbh. my weakest wolf read is ted, so i will not vote for him until day 3 at least.

the person i think most likely could swing w from my t reads is vulgard for possible tmi, but i will eventually read up (or not) see what he has to offer.

high poster hally in a vacuum should be town, but i felt like she was gaslighting us with questions and content which she doesn't really build from. like they're prods and questions which she doesn't really care about one way or the other.

don't really know much about tsp, except he didn't like one of my posts and i like that reaction. no idea if triplehaven has posted yet, i'll get there.

wilgy im giving a soul town read to.

I ctrl-f'd Hally in Dunya's Iso. This is basically all Dunya said about Hally. Dunya did not vote Hally.

To say this rules out a Hally/Dunya team is absurd.

ok ash whatever you say

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:10 pm Ash and Arete are mafia. That's my final answer.

Why are you so against scum!Hally?

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:13 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:11 pm @Poison
@Hally

Can we lynch one of these two please?

i would like to but im pretty sure we aren’t convincing poison

I would be convinced only if you have convincing points for your conclusions.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:03 am ok well if you’re town your vote is losing us the game, just saying

I fervently hope this is true and the 'us' is your wolf team.

If not, well, I guess I'm a derp.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:15 pm [VOTE: Ash] aubergine

There's always tomorrow.

I think Poison is trying to solve G-Man and not the current situation and I think that's a mistake.

I'm not trying to solve G man, but if we just think about the very basic setups and balancing, for any game, you cannot deny that two docs [self healing] is unbalanced. Besides, if she was indeed the doc how is she not mod killed or even got a warning? She did more than slight soft hinting, don't you think?

Secondly, if she is the doc, why didn't she protect Vulgard?? That was a pretty obvious saving don't you think?

Thirdly, her doc role does not make any sense as town role, if scum!doc it makes somewhat sense but not solid one sure. My guess is she is no doc but she have immunity. Now would town have immunity in this set up? Don't think so, would mafia have one, very likely, given LC role.

She started the doc thing only when she knew she was Infected. I don't believe in this town!doc story of hers.

And I am amazed how you are buying it.

Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:34 pm Arete attempts to do VCA (and probably comes to a bunch of wrong conclusions)









okay

(this is all ignoring my actual reads)

on a level-1 level Poison + Ash being on the wolf on D1 is a better look for them, Hally being on the CW is a worse look, and Epi being way off wagon is a slightly worse look for them

that said it's LyLo so I don't want to be like 'wolves never vote wolves, Ash and Poison are locktown'

on a slightly higher level I think the context of the EoD points to Ash and Hally not being aligned? like, Ash was spending basically all of D1 dunking on TSP, while Hally was spending EoD1 being like 'CFD the two poster,' and I think that's kind of bizarre if they're partners

that's not VCA per se but I think it's true

semi-points to Poison/Hally not being a thing since one would be bussing while the other would be trying to CFD the 2-poster, but I don't think that's nearly as strong of a case as the case against Ash/Hally since that could just be individual preferences for deepwolfing vs. powerwolfing

D2 is V/V wagons, I don't think scum would have had a strong preference for LC vs. Michelle (maybe there's something I'm missing, I don't actually remember their reads). normally I'd say people off-wagon in V/V wagons are sus but we didn't have anyone off wagon, so. I do think it's weak evidence against an Ash/Poison team since I find it hard to believe that literally all three wolves would stack on Michelle over LC with V/V Michelle and LC.

EoD3 is another interesting one because Hally was one of the two main wagons (and now I feel kind of dumb because I'm pretty sure I was the vote that saved Hally? don't remember for certain). I think this is more evidence against Ash/Hally, Ash's vote legitimately put Hally in danger and I would be surprised if Ash bussed both his teammates back to back for no reason, when he was already (on D3) widely townread post-Tony flip. Epi and Poison are both voting the CW to Hally, I think given how close the vote was that raises the equity of them being teamed with Hally. it might slightly lower the equity of an Epi/Poison team? I don't really see why they both stack on LC there if they're wolves, and separately I think wolves would have seen Hally as a more valuable kill than LC.

EoD4 is V/V wagons again (we should have just killed Epi like I wanted to), again the only off-wagon person is a dead villager. This is maybe slight points against a Hally/Epi team? but their other votes have enough partner equity that I'm not ruling it out. Ash and Poison are voting together again, it's honestly kind of funny at this point? if they're wolves they decided to just always vote together to mess with people, and I don't think I actually believe that.


so to sum up (this is ignoring my actual reads on people)

all theoretical teams

Ash/Hally
Ash/Epi
Ash/Poison

Hally/Epi
Hally/Poison

Epi/Poison

teams I think actually make sense from VCA


Ash/Epi

Hally/Epi
Hally/Poison (some things make it unlikely but can't totally rule it out)

Epi/Poison

I like this post tbh. I might add some points to it later.

Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:36 pm this is actually really good because I'm pretty confident in ruling out Hally/Ash at this point

so if I combine that post with my actual reads it's probably just Hally/Epi (which is also consistent with how Epi is playing today IMO)

I agree tbh, I don't understand how he is against scum!Hally.

Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:58 pm Epi

Why are you so confident that Hally is town

Exactly

how do you know i wasn’t warned

you’re making assumptions about things you know nothing about

also how was vul an obvious save over you or nook

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:57 am i want to point out that i was one of dunya’s only/strongest scum reads and dunya strongly favors protecting teammates so that would never happen D1 if we were w/w

just in case you wanna like, actually evaluate whether an epi/me team makes sense

Nope. D1 you were super towny, dunya calling you scum is nothing but Could be distancing. That does not make me rule out epi/Hally.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:39 am also how was vul an obvious save over you or nook

Because vul was locked town for everyone, me and nook were not, also vul had better play and theories than us and vul would not get miselimed...

Poison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:50 am

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:39 am also how was vul an obvious save over you or nook

Because vul was locked town for everyone, me and nook were not, also vul had better play and theories than us and vul would not get miselimed...

you and nook were universal town reads too

I don't think the didn't-save-Vul point is the strongest point against Hally, I've seen lots of real docs miss obvious saves, like, I've literally seen an actual doctor protect her strongest wolfread, who was also wolfread by basically ever other player in the game, on the theory that if the were town wolves would kill them to frame the people suspecting them (a.k.a. literally the entire game)

like I think Hally's claim is fake but that's not why I think Hally's claim is fake

whatever. im not arguing anymore. the game is over

I’m sensing some frustration with the 48-hour day for so few players. Send me a PM if you want the phase to end after just 24 hours, but don’t talk about it here in the thread. If everyone is unanimous in the opinion that the phase should end early, I will work to accommodate that.


[mention]Arete[/mention]
[mention]Ash Lael[/mention]
[mention]Epignosis[/mention]
[mention]Hally[/mention]
[mention]Poison[/mention]

Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:58 pm Epi

Why are you so confident that Hally is town

DEAD AIR DEAD VILLAGER

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:50 pm i think i should be eliminated here. not even kidding. there’s no way i’ll ever clear myself and you all need to focus on Not Me people

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:51 pm this is not a ploy. like i genuinely think it’s healthier for this game if im not in it

ok it took me a while to find these quotes but I think they're kind of relevant to my Hally read

these are from EoD3, back when it looked like we might actually vote out Hally

I don't think a town PR ever writes these, like, particularly with 1 doc already dead a hypothetical additional PR would probably not ask to die, obviously this is only addressing the world where Hally is a PR and not the world where Hally is town but not a PR but

well i did write them soooooo

honestly still think it would have been better if id been eliminated there

self preservation is not always the way, pr or not

[mention]Arete[/mention]
[mention]Ash Lael[/mention]
[mention]Epignosis[/mention]
[mention]Hally[/mention]
[mention]Poison[/mention]

I have heard willingness to cut the phase short from all parties.

Day 5 will end at 10:30 p.m. EST tonight.

That gives you just over three and a half hours left.

Get cracking.

probably not going to be able to be here for EoD, may be able to pop in about half an hour before it actually happens

We'll See (tm)

not that it will matter though

I agree with Hally's earlier claim that V!Hally means Epi is also V, like, if Epi is scum and a villager is the consensus LyLo exe they have no reason to go out of their way to be like 'let's CFD every other player in the game except Poison'

like I don't think Hally is V but

this also means that if I can rule out Ash/Poison Hally has to be scum? I think? but like also I've basically been playing all day under the assumption that they're scum and nothing they've done today has particularly given me evidence otherwise

like, I don't think a villager just totally gives up here, particularly since with the reads they're claiming to have, if they're a villager, all they would need to do is find + convince 1 villager on their wagon to move

and instead they're ATEing and asking to die

i did not ask to die. but it’s going to happen so

like, let’s be real. you three made up your minds at SoD and nothing i could say would change that. if you’re scum you won’t care anyway. so whatever

im sorry if you’re town that i couldnt help you find me. i played badly and gave up. the rest of town played badly too. we all have to own it. idk what else to say

i think it is possible to town read me if you actually wanted to. epi has done it and whichever of you is the villager on me could do it too. you’re choosing not to and i don’t blame you, but it’s not impossible

like, the primary reason im being voted is that you all are fundamentally misunderstanding the setup and pushing assumptions about it that aren’t true

that is not exactly something i can argue against. it’s on you all to not try to read the host

who are the wolves, Hally?

Arete wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:47 pm who are the wolves, Hally?

please stop asking me this. you won’t change your vote regardless of what i say. like, i don’t know. literally. i have no idea. and it doesn’t matter anymore. if you’re town you’ll find out in two hours

So I've taken a bit of time out from the game and tried to clear my head and come back with a fresh set of eyes, and... I still can't see any world where Hally is town.

I can maybe tinfoil a bit that Epi is town and Arete or Poison could be wolves that have fooled me and there's going to be a last minute vote switch onto me, but I'm pretty sure I'm ending this phase voting scum. And that's really the best I can do.

Hally has not made any meaningful attempt to find wolves throughout the entire game, apart from a half-hearted push on LC day 2 that she gave up quickly, and some OMGUS here. She has however been very focused on her own position. Even while widely townread, she reacted hard against even a slight bit of tinfoil.

Hally had a sudden and dramatic switch in mood on day 3 when Tony flipped and she came under suspicion. Ok, getting suspected is not fun as either alignment. But even so, if Hally was town knowing she was innocent and believing that 112 and LC were innocent, she should have started to realise that there was something wrong with our PoE and tried to figure out what. If not on day 3, then certainly on day 4 when she was getting a free pass as a presumed virus fatality. The sudden fatalism is very consistent with a Tony/Hally/Epi world, where she suddenly sees little chance of the team making it through the game successfully.

Hally's townread on 112 during day 4 honestly strikes me as TMI. 112 herself acknowledged she was still in her wolf range, and the Tony interactions and progression didn't look good. It was an easy mislynch to make. To be so set that 112 was town without any sort of convincing reason and no good case on alternative suspect really just makes me think Hally was trying to get back some towncred after 112 flipped by whiteknighting her.

The second town doc who can also self heal frankly is a broken role for the setup, especially against what would have to be an all vanilla wolf team (since there are a max of 3 power roles). Hally says we're misinterpreting what the setup is, ok. But we were explicitly led to do that by Hally herself. However you cut it, it's almost certain she's deliberately misled us about her abilities in some way, and I see no reason for town to do that.

I don't agree with Poison's take that not saving Vulgard night 2 is a bad look for Hally. I do however think that Hally not dying night 2 is a bad look for Hally. Night one, ok, there was a successful PR hunt. Nights 3 and 4, Hally was expected to die from the virus. But on Night 2, I strongly think that if town, she would have been the obvious kill. She was universally townread and was in the town leader position. She had demonstrated the ability to create wagons nearly at will. Even if she hadn't been particularly aggressive in her scum hunting up to that point, there is always the potential for town Hally to flip the switch and just start nailing wolves left and right. She did that to us in g8 reunion when I wolfed against her, after potatoing her way through the bulk of the game, and it's pretty scary. With no doctor out there I absolutely would have killed her over Vulgard on N2 and I think most wolf teams would have done the same.

(Speaking of which, that's another reason I don't really buy that Arete is a wolf. If Arete is a wolf, she had Vulgard pocketed HARD. Why kill her strongest defender at the earliest opportunity?)

And all of this is ignoring the cleanest and simplest reason to suspect Hally - that she stood in the way of Tony going down d1.

So, in the face of all that, I just don't think I can reasonably put my vote anywhere else today. Win or lose, this is where I'm staking my ground.

godspeed

what if it’s arete/epi and they were just doing theater? but why kill wilgy then

this really is... a setup

ftr i think my mood dropped before tony flipped not after

also i haven’t misled you about anything. you just think that i have because you’re making bad assumptions

im glad this game is finally ending. i honestly should have just ended it last night

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:28 pm what if it’s arete/epi and they were just doing theater? but why kill wilgy then

I mean, I could see the Wilgy kill. It was either me or him to avoid killing a virused townie, and I was a lot more set on Arete being town.

But I really struggle to see their interaction as theatre. It's so risky, and Epi has only been half-reading the game. I don't buy him even being present enough to organise something elaborate like that. And I haven't seen Arete wolf but I would be surprised if that was their style either.

And also I just can't see Arete as a wolf independently. If they are and I've been fooled, well... I won't say I'm happy to lose to it, because I'm never happy to lose. But I will concede I have been beaten by a better wolf game than I really thought plausible.

i may have played like shit but i didn’t game throw at least

Ash Lael wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:40 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:28 pm what if it’s arete/epi and they were just doing theater? but why kill wilgy then

I mean, I could see the Wilgy kill. It was either me or him to avoid killing a virused townie, and I was a lot more set on Arete being town.

But I really struggle to see their interaction as theatre. It's so risky, and Epi has only been half-reading the game. I don't buy him even being present enough to organise something elaborate like that. And I haven't seen Arete wolf but I would be surprised if that was their style either.

And also I just can't see Arete as a wolf independently. If they are and I've been fooled, well... I won't say I'm happy to lose to it, because I'm never happy to lose. But I will concede I have been beaten by a better wolf game than I really thought plausible.

ok

whoever the wolves are kicked our butts tbh