The Syndicate

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 1:44 am

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 1:40 am okay, but why would tutuu ignore that and just be like "lol bang bang made :P". i took it seriously then, everyone thought I was sus for that which is prob clear why now, but like the conversation continued contemperaniously with it being clear that I thought tutuu and esooa weren't meming. Esooa feel like she could of been because afterwards she was like "Yeah nah i'm lying...or was i..or was i just lying now." so okay. but tutuu? tutuu's response was before this conversation took place

y'all the very least get why i'm shooketh no?

i get why you're shook, sure. and you're justified to be shook.

but i really don't know anything about tutuu's "bang bang" moment; i kind of glazed over it and have just about no opinion of it. @tutuu herself ought to say something about it

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:56 am

Esooa wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:53 am btw Grogu is turbo scummy now, cause one thing I liked about him was he had no care who died in "wifom valley," and that's suddenly become not so much a non-agenda where he doesn't care to push away from the mafia in there, but an extremely strong agenda, where he doesn't give a fuck cause everyone being scum read is town

valid

Esooa wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:53 am btw Grogu is turbo scummy now, cause one thing I liked about him was he had no care who died in "wifom valley," and that's suddenly become not so much a non-agenda where he doesn't care to push away from the mafia in there, but an extremely strong agenda, where he doesn't give a fuck cause everyone being scum read is town

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:57 am

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:56 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:54 am

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:43 am

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:24 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:20 am in light of me, made, michelle, and ellie all being town, it's obvious that the scum have been manipulating this game and pulling it into a certain narrative. i felt consistently throughout yesterday that something was "weird" about this game - and it's obvious now that the thing i found so weird was the fact that the scum was bruteforcing the POE into a specific direction

in my opinion, a reveal like this should make every town player here start their reads over from scratch & use that information to determine who's been pushing the game into a direction that's advantageous for scum

Or town have been hard pushing town

Either way I’m not starting from scratch lol

okay, i'm just gonna brain dumping and see if we can build it into anything that makes sense
two scenaros:
Situation . Mafia has been running train on thread: JJJ,nutella, alison
Situation . Mafia has just been going with that flow: tutuu, nanook, grogu, doom

i'm starting to have real doubt about it being nutella wolf because:
1. that means they didn't give nutella the kill day one, which means they have probably an even townier person to give the kill (or they vig'd night one. Is there reason not to vig n1?)
2. Mac, Nanook, JJJ, LC, Tutuu, and Alison have all consistently ruled her out till this point. she deserves the win if this is the case tbh

in Situation the confusion we've felt has come from dissenting voice that just didn't make sense. Alison is good at logicing, if she's town, hopefully there's enough here for her to win it for us. if she's not town, then boom, got one. basically, @Alison solve the game or we're baking you (if ur not too busy, thx )

Doom has also been saying she has felt super confused this game, so that's not a green check but a point to weigh in her. Especially if we're in Situation and not Situation

I feel like confusion vibes more with a Situation but, someone made the point that this game maybe the kind of game that needs to be supported by analysis, and not just vibes. so again, @Alison , u got this!!! unless you don't in which case

i am vibing with this post a lot, my friend. i love it

gun to head, i feel that situation is more likely than situation . we know that the town had a consensus POE that has been, more or less, 100% incorrect. it's possible for the town to have self-destructed and fallen into a bad consensus position, but occam's razor would tell us that the more likely situation is that there have been multiple active scum steering the game into a bad direction.

which means that, gth, the "go with the flow" world contains two scum at most, but my gut would tell me that it only has one.

the point about nutella is a good one, and i hadn't considered that at all. i would very much like to re-assess nutella today - she's been my strongest townread for the entirety of this game, and i would like to either catch her or be able to confidently lock her in as a "legacy" name that i can remove from my POE

since we only need to remove 3 names from that pool of nine, perhaps our time would be better spent today solidifying town names that we can feel confident about, as opposed to searching for scum teams

You have to remove four from nine. We have to get three mafia in five shots

oh. that's less fun

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:59 am thinking out loud:

is an alison and jay team ever possible?

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:59 am thinking out loud:

is an alison and jay team ever possible?

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:00 am Think it's likely just Alison and two of Doom/Dk/grogu

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:00 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:59 am thinking out loud:

is an alison and jay team ever possible?

it would certainly fit within the framework of alison declaring "lock clear" for a highly specific reason as soon as the game started. it would absolutely fit with what i understand of alison's scumgame to position herself and her partner as lock clears

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:58 am

Esooa wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:53 am btw Grogu is turbo scummy now, cause one thing I liked about him was he had no care who died in "wifom valley," and that's suddenly become not so much a non-agenda where he doesn't care to push away from the mafia in there, but an extremely strong agenda, where he doesn't give a fuck cause everyone being scum read is town

this. It also makes a lot of sense in a world. (more sense than Doom who's been more forceful imo. I need to reread the iso there)

here it's Baby Yoda ( )
you could do JJJ Alison
you could do Nutella JJJ
etcetc
IF we are in a Situation and are able to hit our at most one we can presume the rest are town with more confidence than we have now at least

Esooa wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:01 am

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:00 am Think it's likely just Alison and two of Doom/Dk/grogu

why dk

Esooa wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:01 am here's the thing

Tutuu was either roleblocked with the kill, or she was saved

50/50

50% chance of being scum

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:02 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:00 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:59 am thinking out loud:

is an alison and jay team ever possible?

it would certainly fit within the framework of alison declaring "lock clear" for a highly specific reason as soon as the game started. it would absolutely fit with what i understand of alison's scumgame to position herself and her partner as lock clears

Maybe but I vibe with Jay here tonight overall and his progression on her

Eh

Would go to him if the other names I said last post don't end it

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:06 am there's no world where we understand the thread to be led by an Influential Doom, Dk Nanook or Tutuu is there???

also fuck, i have a giant blind spot for Esooa, who fits most of the Situation cases

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:06 am also fuck, i have a giant blind spot for Esooa

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:56 am

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:44 am alison, DOOM, koba, esooa, grogu, jagged, nanook, nutella, tutuu

there are almost certainly three scum in that pool.

this is not new information - but it helps me visualize my perspective if i lay the names out like that

in the world where koba is mafia, mafia realized I was probably a powerrole (they soft claimed right before EOD).
This is a point against tutuu as it would mean mafia figured i was mafia and didn't try to kill me, and instead tried to kill tutuu(???)

so therefore koba & tutuu are probably not mafia together

I think it's also fair to expect a sloppy mafia at this point as if michelle, me, spf were all not cleared, it would not hard to get any of us lynched.

koba softed that they knew you were a power role? am i misunderstanding?

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:00 am Think it's likely just Alison and two of Doom/Dk/grogu

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:09 am anyway, i claim jailkeeper. i saved tutuu last night.

you might be upset that i claimed, but i'm outing for a couple of reasons:

1. i'm a consensus scumread right now, and a push that the mafia are almost certainly banking on getting chopped within the next day or so. me being confirmed town is going to force the scum to re-orient their position in the game

2. for the town that are misreading me, having me as confirmed town will also help them recontextualize the game. if me/michelle/made are all confirmed to be town today, then that's going to force people to scumhunt in places that they haven't otherwise looked yet

3. made (who appears to be confirmed town?) is actively scumreading and actively suspicious of tutuu, along with DK. although i do not see tutuu getting chopped today, having tutuu as a mechanically confirmed clear along with myself is going to be extremely valuable

4. my claim guarantees that the town will have a mechanical clear for the next 3 days - (they would have to kill me/made/tutuu to create a clearless game)

i view the game like this: with my claim today, we have three mechanically confirmed town players and 9 "unclear" players, with 3 (?) incorrect chops needed for ut olose this game

there are three scum in that pool of nine, and i am confident that if we put our brains together, we can box in the wolves and get the game back in a stable position

(addendum: i realize that tutuu, could, in theory, be a scum whose kill i roleblocked - but i find that extremely extremely unlikely)

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:10 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:09 am anyway, i claim jailkeeper. i saved tutuu last night.

you might be upset that i claimed, but i'm outing for a couple of reasons:

1. i'm a consensus scumread right now, and a push that the mafia are almost certainly banking on getting chopped within the next day or so. me being confirmed town is going to force the scum to re-orient their position in the game

2. for the town that are misreading me, having me as confirmed town will also help them recontextualize the game. if me/michelle/made are all confirmed to be town today, then that's going to force people to scumhunt in places that they haven't otherwise looked yet

3. made (who appears to be confirmed town?) is actively scumreading and actively suspicious of tutuu, along with DK. although i do not see tutuu getting chopped today, having tutuu as a mechanically confirmed clear along with myself is going to be extremely valuable

4. my claim guarantees that the town will have a mechanical clear for the next 3 days - (they would have to kill me/made/tutuu to create a clearless game)

i view the game like this: with my claim today, we have three mechanically confirmed town players and 9 "unclear" players, with 3 (?) incorrect chops needed for ut olose this game

there are three scum in that pool of nine, and i am confident that if we put our brains together, we can box in the wolves and get the game back in a stable position

(addendum: i realize that tutuu, could, in theory, be a scum whose kill i roleblocked - but i find that extremely extremely unlikely)

Wait do we have auto ROFL

Ur forgetting michelle

4 clears. Is that not auto?

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:07 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:56 am

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:44 am alison, DOOM, koba, esooa, grogu, jagged, nanook, nutella, tutuu

there are almost certainly three scum in that pool.

this is not new information - but it helps me visualize my perspective if i lay the names out like that

in the world where koba is mafia, mafia realized I was probably a powerrole (they soft claimed right before EOD).
This is a point against tutuu as it would mean mafia figured i was mafia and didn't try to kill me, and instead tried to kill tutuu(???)

so therefore koba & tutuu are probably not mafia together

I think it's also fair to expect a sloppy mafia at this point as if michelle, me, spf were all not cleared, it would not hard to get any of us lynched.

koba softed that they knew you were a power role? am i misunderstanding?

no, koba softed that they were a power role... i'll quote one sec

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:34 am Looks like alison fell asleep crafting the perfect CC, jet lag is a bitch, riperino

DaughterOfOmega wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:18 am It's nice because I have anti partner stuff with almost all poe

ez clap

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:10 am if DOOM flipped scum i would probably lockclear nutella, and vice versa. i don't think their interactions on day one are partner indicative

Esooa wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:36 am

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:35 am

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:31 am

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:31 am Good mornin sunshines whats cookin

Someone tried to shoot you probably

Dude i just woke up and i dreamt someone was trying to mug me and stab me and i ran away. Is that just fate? Im telling u man my dreams are prophetic

scum reading this post but eeeeeee eiigneaoirghjaeo;gjharwelio

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:19 am

Esooa wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:36 am

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:35 am

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:31 am

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:31 am Good mornin sunshines whats cookin

Someone tried to shoot you probably

Dude i just woke up and i dreamt someone was trying to mug me and stab me and i ran away. Is that just fate? Im telling u man my dreams are prophetic

scum reading this post but eeeeeee eiigneaoirghjaeo;gjharwelio

If i was scum u wouldnt scumread any of my posts

Made wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:50 am

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:44 am alison, DOOM, koba, esooa, grogu, jagged, nanook, nutella, tutuu

there are almost certainly three scum in that pool.

this is not new information - but it helps me visualize my perspective if i lay the names out like that

in the world where esooa is mafia, mafia realized I was probably a powerrole (she tried to cover for me)
This is a point against tutuu as it would mean mafia figured i was power role and didn't try to kill me, and instead tried to kill tutuu(???)

so therefore esooa & tutuu are probably not mafia together

I think it's also fair to expect a sloppy mafia at this point as if michelle, me, spf were all not cleared, it would not hard to get any of us lynched.

Esooa wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:01 am here's the thing

Tutuu was either roleblocked with the kill, or she was saved

50/50

50% chance of being scum

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:44 am Can you briefly explain your scumread on me please?

tutuu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:26 am

Esooa wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:01 am here's the thing

Tutuu was either roleblocked with the kill, or she was saved

50/50

50% chance of being scum

Tutuu is also either wonder woman, or shes not

50/50

50% chance of being wonder woman

Brilliant deduction eso, you must have learned this in the probability class u took in ur mensa university thats reserved only for geniuses with 169+ IQ such as urself pat pat u cutiepie