The Syndicate

Let's start with me.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:38 am
sprityo
Frankly, it really goes against my instincts to be voting you right now. Radishes is inconsistent and wobbly, pushed me for stupid reasons, and accepted that the spiny post cleared me way too easily. I think, in my heart of hearts, even as I am voting you, that he's the scum here. I'm stomping on it 'cause I'm at lylo and therefore I am wrong.

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:49 am
So between the option of Radishes who I haven’t tried to scrutinize. The man who was drawing a lot of different view points from everyone yesterday (and I think day 2 as well?). Points of interest I remember about Radishes was his and Pawn’s “You’re copying me” type deal with reads

By all means I would be the one lynched here since Evenstar and Radihes have the same reads. But if mafia is picking who goes where...then that would be what they want and too easy. I’m going to apply Occam’s Razor and go with that’s the case.

Radishes seemed to have pretty consistent reads from what I can remember as well. As in they didn’t change if at all. Evenstar is going to be a bag of cats to dissect
So the two real points against me appear to be my 'wobbly and inconsistent' play (what does that even mean?) and my 'pretty consistent reads' (which isn't true).

My play has been the same since the beginning; any wobbliness comes from three things:
(a) adapting my gameplay to the non-voting/non-rereading mechanics
(b) unfamiliarity with me/my meta
(c) the fact I never truly let go of my scum!Evenstar read and was trying to work around it

My reads did change:
(i) Jack went from mild SR to mild TR to strong SR (bottom 3) to strong TR
(ii) Colin went from TR to a bottom 3 SR
(iii) Epi went from SR to TR
(iv) Sprityo went from SR to uncertain TR
...etc. Rabbit was a strong TR throughout, but beyond that everything was in flux to some extent.

Aaaaand a bunch more posts.

It's 6:30am here and I need to leave for work soon. It's a full day of teaching for me, no real breaks start to finish, so I'm going to have to keep it to cliffs notes versions for now. We have a day and a half still.


Evenstar - everything I'm seeing looks the opposite of the town!Eva I've seen. I've never played with her, and it's different to watch from spec chat, but she looks...uncertain. Also, the Nook and potentially Pawn kills fit her meta perfectly. And lest we forget her D1 vote at 3 mins remaining nearly prevented Drago being lynched. The big point against this theory is if Spiny spewed her Mason, but without access to the main thread I can't check.

Sprityo - has been laying low and is now suddenly here and active, which is nagl for anyone. D1-D3 posting left me uninspired. Emotional outbursts can be faked. The big point against this case is that he's also shown a propensity to be much more insightful than his low-posting would indicate, such as countering theories with logical points others had missed, and how this round his biggest post ^^ showed me he's been paying much more attention than I realised.


I won't 'hide' the fact that I am still leaning towards Evenstar as scum. But I suppose in F3 due diligence is needed, so I'll duly and diligently try to see the opposite world.

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:27 am
Open Question:

What's the Singular biggest reason to Town read the other two players

And what is the Singular biggest reason to read them Mafia?

I'll be doing mine
Kind of did this above ^ but will do it again in brief.

Town!Eva = Spinyboo's Mason as per *that* post
Scum!Eva = overall passive and uncertain play

Town!Sprit = insightful posts that show townie thought process
Scum!Sprit = macro-level play is uninspiring; has been laying low

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:28 am
Radishes, uncertainty means I don't have TMI. Go look at the ridiculous confidence with which I pushed the X Cult thing, for a start.

The vote is a bad look, I agree. I wouldn't read into the kills like that though, because I know Lexi, Mac and you all have enough meta on me to frame me. Also, do you really think I would let both Lexi and Pawn persist in the same game with me for more than one daycycle? That's seriously bad juju, man.

Eh. You had confidence in the Finale and were town. You had confidence of D1 in this game. The uncertainty I could forgive on D2 for awhile because, you know, it took us by surprise, but aside from a brief attack on Pawn you’ve come across as very passive, and that is not a look I’m used to seeing on you (with admittedly a low amount of meta). I think ‘passive’ is better than ‘uncertain’ here as a term, though.

As for who you’d kill and what you’d do, that’s WIFOM. But to entertain the discussion for a moment: LLD is clearly a non-factor this game, and Pawn was deep in your pocket until yesterday. The other known kill was Nook, who you know from the Finale, so 'fits' who you might choose, as I do believe you're the type of mafia who kills players they think could be dangerous for them personally.

And one of the reasons I think Pawn is the likely MK is because he’s exactly who you wouldn’t want here right now if you were scum. Whereas scum!Sprit keeps him because he’s mislynch bait and there’s no meta, and scum!Sprit MKs Epi or Dom or someone who knows him better and may be able to find him.

I never kill Pawn (or colin) for the same reason, since no one knows my meta so I’m mainly concerned about having viable bait if I’m scum. I consider killing Rabbit or Epi, I'd hazard.

But this is all WIFOM more than anything, and truthfully isn’t a strong piece of evidence for me, so feel free to ignore this thread of discussion. It just…fits, is all.

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:02 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:32 am
My reads did change:
(i) Jack went from mild SR to mild TR to strong SR (bottom 3) to strong TR
(ii) Colin went from TR to a bottom 3 SR
(iii) Epi went from SR to TR
(iv) Sprityo went from SR to uncertain TR

So do you remember the reasons for these changes? or at least when they happened?

Jack – on D1 I didn’t like his lack of contribution, but he engaged with Eva/Nutella in a way I felt was townie, hence my strong TR (which no one at the time liked; I got a lot of flack for it). His D1 vote was one I pegged as a potential scum vote if there was a campaign to save Drago. Throughout D2 I felt Jack did little again, and by PoE he slipped down to my mushy middle 3. Yesterday I felt his contributions improved and he actually was playing the game. He was also completely different from everyone on reads and style, which makes me think town more than scum; he wasn’t trying to be blendy, but ended up being so. I think I had another reason to like him but I forget now. I ended with him as an upper mid-3.

Colin – barely remember Rej in that slot, but when Colin entered D2 I felt there was some attempt to delve in to the game without worrying about how he appeared. I acknowledged him as a PoE candidate, but kept him at that until D3 due to lack of content. When I began to seriously ISO people realised I had zero reason to read him as...anything. I saw no townie posts, no scum posts. Just blah posts. So by end of D3 he slipped to my bottom 3. What I had read as townie nonchalance I now was reading as scum blend-alance.

Epi – I put him in a ‘potential scum vote on D1’ slot. I also accused him of trying to bury the thread with all his analysis, much of which I felt was a bit useless. He took issue with all this and reasoned with me at beginning of D2. I liked our interaction and kept him in the Mid-3 for awhile (not higher since I knew he had a rep). His attack on Rabbit felt to me like a dog who felt he had a bone in a townie way, and he seemed a bit put out when the doublevoter thing put his idea to rest. He had pushed hard and without regard for how he came across. He also put in more effort than most others in our various levels, which is not a towntell per se but buys him some goodwill considering how I've felt the D2/D3 threads were rather lacking it despite the postcount being reasonable. I think scum ride out that thread uncertainty rather than raise the effort level.

Sprityo – there was a D1 post I felt was bad, and many others agreed at the time, but there wasn’t enough to build more of a case there. In D2 I again felt his posts lacked substance, and by PoE he floated around my bottom 3. By D3 I began to re-evaluate, as in ISOing him I felt there was nothing particularly scummy to find, and in turn the (now much discussed) ‘points of logic’ pointed in his favour. He remained in my PoE, but was climbing out of it.


Additions:

Dom - went from null (lack of content) to slight TR (for not giving af how he looked as he finally entered the thread) to slightly firmer TR (for having some decent points hidden amongst his dickish-- I mean aggression.)

Iaafr - strong TR throughout based on style and substance. I get how his style rubs people the wrong way, but I was used to it from MU spec chat and so saw through it fairly easily. Purest one of all, IMO.



And with further detail, since I see him being discussed later in this thread:

Pawn – He and I were on the same page so much I did worry about a deepwolf and said as much, but otherwise felt he was very townie. When Eva attacked him I felt his responses were cogent, and did not shift my opinion much there when all was said and done. But at the end of D3 I listed my best reason for townreading everyone, and I realised I didn’t really have a better reason to TR him than ‘I like what he says’ (I don’t remember exactly what I worded it as). After considering others, e.g. Dom, Epi, Jack, etc, he ended up in my bottom 3 a bit by default, as I had better reasons to TR others, but was not necessarily SRing him, if that makes sense. I admit also to a touch of paranoia (I called him a deepwolf way before anyone else started to SR him!). But I can’t specify anything more with regards to that, I think.

Geezus Eva – sorry if this is a backhanded compliment, but that may be your best post of the game. THIS is the player I’ve been expecting but not seeing. *cough*fightingforsurvival*cough*

I mean, it’s got a lot wrong with it, but points for trying anyway.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 pm
I expect to be able to understand your reasoning for why certain people are town or scum, since we come from a similar environment and you claim to have some idea how my brain works and how to pitch me a case, but everything you've personally come up with has left me cold.

Do we come from a similar environment? I don’t know that we do. I rarely play away from my homesite and I’ve not played ‘competitive’ Mafia (as it were) in years. I just happened to watch Champs this year (to cheer on 112) and JJJ twisted my arm to join (he and I go back to Season 2).

I also don’t claim to know how your brain works. I only claim to have watched a couple games of yours, heard your rep, discussed you in spec chat, etc. Your style of playing is, I believe, actually quite different from mine.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 pm
You called me scum D2&3 based on my late D1 vote, then said you were having doubts early in D3 and used that to justify accepting Spiny's post as a clear on me. When me and Pawn called you on it, you backtracked hastily. Today you're maintaining that your heavy scumread of me remained strong for the whole day. So what you said about having doubts on D3 was a lie, then?

Creating narratives won’t work on me, fyi. I did not use anything to ‘justify’ anything. And I certainly did not backtrack ‘hastily’. (Who was saying things about adverbs being scumtells? I like the theory, I’ve decided.) There’s been no lie about my read on you.

Let’s try again.

After townreading you D1 for a generally solid tone, your vote pinged me, and I put your name forward as an option. Iaafr, Pawn, Epi, and even Jack all shut me down. Look, say what you want about me, but I’m a team player – if my team tells me I’m wrong, I’ve learned to listen. Now, I’m not calling all of them villagers, but certainly at the time I read most of them as such, and still do to various extents. So I shrugged and backed off.

As is natural, yes, doubts crept in. And I did try to recalibrate my view of the game and create a town!Eva world. I didn’t really get anywhere, though, because I couldn’t get it out of my mind. I hoped the dream levels would re-combine or something and I would get different opinions and/or not be in a level with you. (And now here we are. Sigh.)

In D3, Rabbit brought up the Spiny post. As a general rule of thumb, I always err on the side of believing claims, even if I have doubts. So yes, I latched on to that as a means to force me to stop tunneling. And still no one else was expressing doubt about you anyway, so I did feel on an island. And I simply don’t have the time or energy in this game to make everyone swim to my island. (Not sure that metaphor made sense…) So I let it be and continued to focus on looking for scum through other methods.


I’ll continue this train of thought in a future post. Let’s continue responding to your points.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 pm
You scumread Jack early in D3, putting him in your bottom 3 IIRC. He remained there for some time, and then I made my post about how the current PoE felt bad and I thought Jack, Colin, Dom, Sprityo were all bad cases and that Jack in particular was ML bait because he has no defenders at all. You seemed vaguely convinced by this and moved off your scumread, but returned to it later in the day for reasons that aren't really clear to me, and AFAIK that was where you left off. Now you're saying that you reversed your position again and hard-townread Jack? I don't understand the reasoning behind your flip-flops here.

You have misremembered and/or misinterpreted.

First of all, where do you get the idea any post you made changed my mind on anything? You were not the first to suggest the low-posting PoE felt bad; in fact, I was on that as early as D2. I had a brief discussion with Pawn about it. (He basically shrugged at it and said it was the best PoE for now.)

My read on Jack has bounced like a yo-yo, that’s true, but it’s been doing that all game because he posted so much whilst saying so little and refused to engage in conversations or really explain his reads in more than a brief sentence. I can’t read that style well, so my read has bounced around. As explained in an above post directed at Sprityo, I did a list near the end of D3 and found decent reasons to TR Jack, whereas my SR had always been for fairly lazy ‘he’s not doing much’ reasons.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 pm
Throughout the entire day you were "townreading" Pawn with a deeply uncertain tone. I don't recall if you actually flipped on him when I pushed him, but I definitely don't recall you defending him... and checking my spreadsheet here, it looks like one of your final 3 options was Pawn.

Explained above to Sprit. Pawn’s posts showed a similar thought process to mine, so that made me a bit concerned but overall made me TR him. I wasn’t around when you pushed him, and concluded it hadn’t changed my opinion. He ended up in my final 3 by PoE as I didn’t find a better reason to TR him than I did for a couple others who had been hovering down my list, e.g. Jack.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 pm
Epi, on the other hand, you entered the day scumreading... and then slowly slid into a townread based IIRC on his push of Rabbit, which to my eyes was excessive and unfair. You did this while townreading Rabbit, and made no attempt to break up the conflict between two of your townreads. It feels extremely convenient to me that you slid into townreading Epi in this fashion.

False. Epi was a town read all of D3. It was strengthened by the Rabbit thing, that's true. But it was D2 I started the day uncertain on Epi, and had changed by the end of the phase.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 pm
I think you did make a brief post about Pawn "slanking" or "coasting" at one point, but I certainly don't recall any major contributions from you at EoD. (Unless it was you who was tinfoiling a Pawn/me scumteam? I'm fairly sure that was earlier in the day anyway.)

It was me, but you’re right it was earlier.

There were no major contributions at EoD because I wasn’t here.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 pm
You slid towards "Jack is town" following me; you slid towards "Pawn is scum" following Epi. You claim to have only townread Pawn in the first place based on the fact that Rabbit thought he was town. You backed off your position that I was scum very quickly when Spiny's post came up, and then backed right back onto it just as quickly when I called you out on it.

All of these are false. You're either trying to create a narrative about me being a follower, or you misremember my posts/the timing of them.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 pm
You try not to get involved in conflicts in the thread, and are particularly likely to ambiguously-townread strong players like Epi and Pawn. It seems important to you that perceptive people like Epi not have reason to look at you too close: while I'm also known as a strong player, it's a lot easier to brush off suspicion from me than from someone like Epignosis, which makes your persistent scumread of me slot quite neatly into a world where I'm being framed.

That's another nice narrative, but also not true. I would agree I’m not a ‘confrontational’ player, but at the same time all the ‘conflicts’ have happened when I haven’t been in the thread. So I haven't exactly been able to get involved.

You could categorise my TRs of Epi and Pawn as ambiguous, sure. Or perhaps 'uncertain'? Weren’t you just defending my accusations of your ‘uncertainty’ by pointing out that’s a towntell? My reads of Epi and Pawn have fluctuated between varying levels of certainty, and I see nothing wrong with that.

(Also, for the record, I’d rather Epi come after me than you. You’re scary when you want to be.)

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 pm
As for your analysis content, I recall one solid analysis post at the beginning of D2 regarding the votals, and thereafter your reads have felt confused, vague and underspecified.

This is…fair. Or, rather, I feel that’s not the case, but enough people have said something like this to me so far that I can accept I’m not making myself as clear as I need to be. It’s a bit unfair to attack my lack of analysis, though, considering there’s very little to analyse without past threads, and I could easily say the same about you.

Also, I love ‘votals’. Haven’t seen that one before.

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 pm
I've had to prod you for reasoning multiple times,

You have done no such thing. You’ve engaged me about twice in this game. I was paying attention because I was waiting for a post such as this and never got it.
Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 pm
but they score points for getting louder in lylo while you seem to be becoming quieter.
Completely unfair. My timezone is different from yours and I’ve explained that today was particularly busy for me. I have about 3 hours max per day on for this game, and a lot of that has been spent simply reading up. As for this round, it started at 11pm for me, and so I’ve had all of one hour this morning so far.


---

My concern with your reasoning here is that so much seems predicated on things that are twisted, misrepresented, or in some cases simply untrue. Suggesting my reads have felt ‘confused, vague, and underspecified’ is the best thing about it, as you’re not the only player so far to feel that way, so clearly I’ve not done a good enough job projecting my thoughts. But essentially everything else feels more like you’re scraping the barrel for reasons to cast doubt on me in any way you can.

Geezus Eva – sorry if this is a backhanded compliment, but that may be your best post of the game. THIS is the player I’ve been expecting but not seeing. *cough*fightingforsurvival*cough*

I mean, it’s got a lot wrong with it, but points for trying anyway.
Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 pm
I expect to be able to understand your reasoning for why certain people are town or scum, since we come from a similar environment and you claim to have some idea how my brain works and how to pitch me a case, but everything you've personally come up with has left me cold.
Do we come from a similar environment? I don’t know that we do. I rarely play away from my homesite and I’ve not played ‘competitive’ Mafia (as it were) in years. I just happened to watch Champs this year (to cheer on 112) and JJJ twisted my arm to join (he and I go back to Season 2).

I also don’t claim to know how your brain works. I only claim to have watched a couple games of yours, heard your rep, discussed you in spec chat, etc. Your style of playing is, I believe, actually quite different from mine.
Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 pm
You called me scum D2&3 based on my late D1 vote, then said you were having doubts early in D3 and used that to justify accepting Spiny's post as a clear on me. When me and Pawn called you on it, you backtracked hastily. Today you're maintaining that your heavy scumread of me remained strong for the whole day. So what you said about having doubts on D3 was a lie, then?
Creating narratives won’t work on me, fyi. I did not use anything to ‘justify’ anything. And I certainly did not backtrack ‘hastily’. (Who was saying things about adverbs being scumtells? I like the theory, I’ve decided.) There’s been no lie about my read on you.

Let’s try again.

After townreading you D1 for a generally solid tone, your vote pinged me, and I put your name forward as an option. Iaafr, Pawn, Epi, and even Jack all shut me down. Look, say what you want about me, but I’m a team player – if my team tells me I’m wrong, I’ve learned to listen. Now, I’m not calling all of them villagers, but certainly at the time I read most of them as such, and still do to various extents. So I shrugged and backed off.

As is natural, yes, doubts crept in. And I did try to recalibrate my view of the game and create a town!Eva world. I didn’t really get anywhere, though, because I couldn’t get it out of my mind. I hoped the dream levels would re-combine or something and I would get different opinions and/or not be in a level with you. (And now here we are. Sigh.)

In D3, Rabbit brought up the Spiny post. As a general rule of thumb, I always err on the side of believing claims, even if I have doubts. So yes, I latched on to that as a means to force me to stop tunneling. And still no one else was expressing doubt about you anyway, so I did feel on an island. And I simply don’t have the time or energy in this game to make everyone swim to my island. (Not sure that metaphor made sense…) So I let it be and continued to focus on looking for scum through other methods.


I’ll continue this train of thought in a future post. Let’s continue responding to your points.
Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 pm
You scumread Jack early in D3, putting him in your bottom 3 IIRC. He remained there for some time, and then I made my post about how the current PoE felt bad and I thought Jack, Colin, Dom, Sprityo were all bad cases and that Jack in particular was ML bait because he has no defenders at all. You seemed vaguely convinced by this and moved off your scumread, but returned to it later in the day for reasons that aren't really clear to me, and AFAIK that was where you left off. Now you're saying that you reversed your position again and hard-townread Jack? I don't understand the reasoning behind your flip-flops here.
You have misremembered and/or misinterpreted.

First of all, where do you get the idea any post you made changed my mind on anything? You were not the first to suggest the low-posting PoE felt bad; in fact, I was on that as early as D2. I had a brief discussion with Pawn about it. (He basically shrugged at it and said it was the best PoE for now.)

My read on Jack has bounced like a yo-yo, that’s true, but it’s been doing that all game because he posted so much whilst saying so little and refused to engage in conversations or really explain his reads in more than a brief sentence. I can’t read that style well, so my read has bounced around. As explained in an above post directed at Sprityo, I did a list near the end of D3 and found decent reasons to TR Jack, whereas my SR had always been for fairly lazy ‘he’s not doing much’ reasons.
Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 pm
Throughout the entire day you were "townreading" Pawn with a deeply uncertain tone. I don't recall if you actually flipped on him when I pushed him, but I definitely don't recall you defending him... and checking my spreadsheet here, it looks like one of your final 3 options was Pawn.
Explained above to Sprit. Pawn’s posts showed a similar thought process to mine, so that made me a bit concerned but overall made me TR him. I wasn’t around when you pushed him, and concluded it hadn’t changed my opinion. He ended up in my final 3 by PoE as I didn’t find a better reason to TR him than I did for a couple others who had been hovering down my list, e.g. Jack.
Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 pm
Epi, on the other hand, you entered the day scumreading... and then slowly slid into a townread based IIRC on his push of Rabbit, which to my eyes was excessive and unfair. You did this while townreading Rabbit, and made no attempt to break up the conflict between two of your townreads. It feels extremely convenient to me that you slid into townreading Epi in this fashion.
False. Epi was a town read all of D3. It was strengthened by the Rabbit thing, that's true. But it was D2 I started the day uncertain on Epi, and had changed by the end of the phase.
Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 pm
I think you did make a brief post about Pawn "slanking" or "coasting" at one point, but I certainly don't recall any major contributions from you at EoD. (Unless it was you who was tinfoiling a Pawn/me scumteam? I'm fairly sure that was earlier in the day anyway.)
It was me, but you’re right it was earlier.

There were no major contributions at EoD because I wasn’t here.
Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 pm
You slid towards "Jack is town" following me; you slid towards "Pawn is scum" following Epi. You claim to have only townread Pawn in the first place based on the fact that Rabbit thought he was town. You backed off your position that I was scum very quickly when Spiny's post came up, and then backed right back onto it just as quickly when I called you out on it.
All of these are false. You're either trying to create a narrative about me being a follower, or you misremember my posts/the timing of them.
Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 pm
You try not to get involved in conflicts in the thread, and are particularly likely to ambiguously-townread strong players like Epi and Pawn. It seems important to you that perceptive people like Epi not have reason to look at you too close: while I'm also known as a strong player, it's a lot easier to brush off suspicion from me than from someone like Epignosis, which makes your persistent scumread of me slot quite neatly into a world where I'm being framed.
That's another nice narrative, but also not true. I would agree I’m not a ‘confrontational’ player, but at the same time all the ‘conflicts’ have happened when I haven’t been in the thread. So I haven't exactly been able to get involved.

You could categorise my TRs of Epi and Pawn as ambiguous, sure. Or perhaps 'uncertain'? Weren’t you just defending my accusations of your ‘uncertainty’ by pointing out that’s a towntell? My reads of Epi and Pawn have fluctuated between varying levels of certainty, and I see nothing wrong with that.

(Also, for the record, I’d rather Epi come after me than you. You’re scary when you want to be.)

Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 pm
As for your analysis content, I recall one solid analysis post at the beginning of D2 regarding the votals, and thereafter your reads have felt confused, vague and underspecified.
This is…fair. Or, rather, I feel that’s not the case, but enough people have said something like this to me so far that I can accept I’m not making myself as clear as I need to be. It’s a bit unfair to attack my lack of analysis, though, considering there’s very little to analyse without past threads, and I could easily say the same about you.

Also, I love ‘votals’. Haven’t seen that one before.
Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 pm
I've had to prod you for reasoning multiple times,
You have done no such thing. You’ve engaged me about twice in this game. I was paying attention because I was waiting for a post such as this and never got it.
Evenstar wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:01 pm
but they score points for getting louder in lylo while you seem to be becoming quieter.
Completely unfair. My timezone is different from yours and I’ve explained that today was particularly busy for me. I have about 3 hours max per day on for this game, and a lot of that has been spent simply reading up. As for this round, it started at 11pm for me, and so I’ve had all of one hour this morning so far.


---

My concern with your reasoning here is that so much seems predicated on things that are twisted, misrepresented, or in some cases simply untrue. Suggesting my reads have felt ‘confused, vague, and underspecified’ is the best thing about it, as you’re not the only player so far to feel that way, so clearly I’ve not done a good enough job projecting my thoughts. But essentially everything else feels more like you’re scraping the barrel for reasons to cast doubt on me in any way you can.

The case against Sprityo

There’s obviously less here, since Sprit has posted less. But let’s see what we got.

--D1 he made an opening post that was basically fluff, e.g. ‘Oh these two people are fighting, I’ll stay out of that’ with no analytical content or anything. I called him on it and several agreed, and Sprit’s response was to basically say he hadn’t intended to be analytical, just a catch up for himself. I still know why he needed to *post* it then.

--D2 he was one of the slankers, and was generally ignored until closer to the end. I think I was the one to first raise this. Sprit…again didn’t really have much of a response. But as I recall it, Nova and Sprit became the two real wagons by EoD2. My sense of the thread at that point was that it was 50/50. The fact Sprit remained could suggest the scum voted Nova (presumably as a bloc, since it’s private). This is interesting, as if it was a v/v situation why did they choose to help lynch the bigger slanker? It could indicate Sprit was a wolf wagon in this situation.

--Sprit had that emotional outburst; that’s a post that is easily faked. He’s certainly seemed calmer since.

--In D3 there was more activity, but the quality of contribution remained variable. Aside from a couple insightful moments, which are somewhat NAI anyway, he coasted through without ever really being under the heaviest of fire.

--His start this Day has been better. Although now that Eva and I are going at it, he seems content to recede to the background again.



Unfortunately that’s about all I remember from Sprit. And a lot of it relies on speculation.

There’s a very plausible world where Sprit is mafia here – it doesn’t take much to imagine it.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:24 pm I am at work, and unable to post much. I have meeting coming up soon (that includes a 50-slide Power Point about how to have a meeting ), but...

Pawn Lelouch wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:34 am

iaafr wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:26 am but i mean yeah your logics a bit weird

wouldnt keeping him alive to keep sussing the towncore sow suspicion on its own?

why would scum assume people would even remember nooks reads

Yes, but Nook was relatively low impact in the thread so he probably wouldn't make much progress and might even be convinced to change his mind. Better to go for the guarantee rather than a gamble.

Because it's good town play to look back at those who died to try and divine the intent as to why they died. Since there is always a discernible reason behind a scum nightkill. The trick is actually figuring it out. Plus remembering the reads of one of 14 other players is far easier than that of 29 other players. Especially since scum could potentially just point it out themselves in thread as a reason why Nook could have been a silencing kill. So there's a fair chance that town would easily remember the reads or scum would just state it themselves.

I'm basically assuming that Epi is scum based off this as I read into the kill more and more. If I'm right this is a kill that came at it from a methodical view, which fits my mental image of Epi's style and even is something he has stated in previous days.

...this is rubbish. Absolute rubbish.

First, the qualifiers indicate someone who knows what he is saying is rubbish. "Basically assuming" is equivocal language. "As I read into the kill more and more" is a vague way to make it sound as though this perspective bears credibility. It doesn't. This is an attempt to appear analytical. The little lecture that precedes the accusation rings hollow.

Second, Pawn, who knows nothing about me and has no prior experience with me, suggests that he can correctly peg me specifically as killing Nanook. Nonsense. In fact, if you remember, Nanook was among my top suspects coming into Day 2. From my perspective, the incessant posts begging for credit for lynching Dragomir looked too on the nose. If I were mafia, I would have been confident I could have gathered support for a Nanook lynch. No- Nanook would not have been in my top ten choices for a kill.

Third, the accusation is empty. Any victim could be a "methodical" choice for the Night kill. What makes the Nanook kill specifically a methodical choice (as opposed to, say, an Evenstar kill or a Pawn kill)? The accusation is based on multiple assumptions that don't even support it.

Fourth, the basis for this accusation against me is at present non-falsifiable. "If I'm right this is a kill that came at it from a methodical view" is nothing that can be proved or disproved until endgame.

This is rubbish.