The Syndicate

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:37 pm im 99% sure carotte is outed mafia who decided to go in anti-spewing

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:42 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:37 pm im 99% sure carotte is outed mafia who decided to go in anti-spewing

well she hasn’t really been here so i’m not sure how she could be in anti-spew

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:44 pm oh yea and if carotte is mafia (which she should be) im highly certain she spewed sloonei town (someone else pointed out this first, maybe jay? someone said she TMI'd him town)

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:42 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:37 pm im 99% sure carotte is outed mafia who decided to go in anti-spewing

well she hasn’t really been here so i’m not sure how she could be in anti-spew

yes exactly? she isnt posting so as to not give any spew

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:31 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:16 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:12 pm thanks. how likely do you think it is that those in your poe are aligned with each other?

I don't think Carotte/Thunal is W/W. The way Thunal praised Carotte's re-evaluation did not look like wolf buddy interaction. If anything I'd say it looks more like one of them trying to get on the other's good side. Carotte/Sloonei and Sloonei/Thunal both seem pretty viable to me.

ok. i don’t really see carotte/sloonei and sloonei/thunal as that likely

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:11 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:05 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:32 am @Hally you asked me about the relationship between Carotte and Alison. If I were doing a blind interaction chart that would be a block I'd be tempted to color orange. They've both said a decent amount about one another without arriving at conclusions I would call clear or inspiring -- lots of room to land on town reads or mafia reads both ways depending upon the momentum of the game.

Take that with a grain of salt, because I don't believe pre-flip associations are super wise if not done comprehensively for everyone, or at least everyone within a POE pool.

I agree with this

I'm feeling pretty okay about jay so far actually, and am inclined to listen to him re giving Sloonei more time. Switching my pseudo scum vote to carotte


also, my negative tinglies about Hally have returned somewhat. a little. I still townread them but am wary and wouldn't give then the save/gun. I still like spf most for that but see she self voted, so we'll have to figure that out but I'd be fine with sending tutuu, nova, or I guess myself as well.

I also think Thunal is town and Alison's push on her is bad, but whether it's misguidedly bad or maliciously bad remains to be determined.

Still catching up on this morning

we seem to be at identical places rn with our reads. where are your negative tingles coming from if not my reads?

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:13 pm if two of us just vote everyone but spf, she’ll have the least again

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:53 pm i mean

we kinda had the majority vote and everything

i can count the votes but i dont think the majority agreed to give it to spf

im not really cool with hally and nutella strongarming to give the gun to spf? what happened to the whole town as a whole working together?

let me tally the votes i guess

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:47 pm oh and me

[VOTE: hally ] aubergine

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:42 am Lol crosspost nutella

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:34 am

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:28 am I don't get the commotion about Sloonei tbh, I believe that he believes in his read. :P

What makes you believe him?

I "get" his thought process, it doesn't seem like a stretch to me. I wouldn't townread him for that, but clearly don't share the ~general scumread he got for this read.

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:56 pm I'm caught up. Ruling out Thunal/Sloonei for now, which looks decent for Thunal.

Hally, the plan was for everyone to self vote to make us all have one, except the person who gets the gun. Why'd you do that?

Also I've changed my mind, I want Martin to have the gun.

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:48 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:31 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:16 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:12 pm thanks. how likely do you think it is that those in your poe are aligned with each other?

I don't think Carotte/Thunal is W/W. The way Thunal praised Carotte's re-evaluation did not look like wolf buddy interaction. If anything I'd say it looks more like one of them trying to get on the other's good side. Carotte/Sloonei and Sloonei/Thunal both seem pretty viable to me.

ok. i don’t really see carotte/sloonei and sloonei/thunal as that likely

Why? I'm not seeing any super strong associations between those slots.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:57 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:56 pm I'm caught up. Ruling out Thunal/Sloonei for now, which looks decent for Thunal.

Hally, the plan was for everyone to self vote to make us all have one, except the person who gets the gun. Why'd you do that?

Also I've changed my mind, I want Martin to have the gun.

Was Thunal/Sloonei a viable pairing? Why has that changed?

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:49 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:11 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:05 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:32 am @Hally you asked me about the relationship between Carotte and Alison. If I were doing a blind interaction chart that would be a block I'd be tempted to color orange. They've both said a decent amount about one another without arriving at conclusions I would call clear or inspiring -- lots of room to land on town reads or mafia reads both ways depending upon the momentum of the game.

Take that with a grain of salt, because I don't believe pre-flip associations are super wise if not done comprehensively for everyone, or at least everyone within a POE pool.

I agree with this

I'm feeling pretty okay about jay so far actually, and am inclined to listen to him re giving Sloonei more time. Switching my pseudo scum vote to carotte


also, my negative tinglies about Hally have returned somewhat. a little. I still townread them but am wary and wouldn't give then the save/gun. I still like spf most for that but see she self voted, so we'll have to figure that out but I'd be fine with sending tutuu, nova, or I guess myself as well.

I also think Thunal is town and Alison's push on her is bad, but whether it's misguidedly bad or maliciously bad remains to be determined.

Still catching up on this morning

we seem to be at identical places rn with our reads. where are your negative tingles coming from if not my reads?

honestly it was your multiquote catchup post lol I think I just can't read you reliably in post capped games when you do that, I know you did them as town in sf3 but they still rub me wrong, especially when most of the replies are fluff, which they felt like in the one that triggered me here. also like, in finale you seemed to overcompensate in grouping stuff into long mq posts when you weren't even in danger of hitting cap. I guess you're closeish here though but it still bothers me idk. But I am reassured when you make reads I agree with.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:01 pm Ok so it looks like we'll need someone to vote everyone except the person we want to get the gun so it doesn't just go to lowest poster

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:15 am I like Thunal more today.

I'm not sure if everyone understands that the person sent to the grassland only gets to shoot *among* the persons in the grassland? (most voted, least voted, sent by scum)

I think tutuu & nutella are town. I liked Nanook/SPF/nova/LC/JJJ with no particular order.

I have some mixed feelings about Alison. I think that the only thing I really disliked is how she asked Hally why I wasn't on their read list (I thought it was pretty evident that they jsut didn't have a read on me) and then not really followed up when Hally answered that they didn't have a read yet.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:01 pm Wait, I wasn't supposed to vote myself after hally voted us all?

I'm lost....oh well.

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:01 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:57 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:56 pm I'm caught up. Ruling out Thunal/Sloonei for now, which looks decent for Thunal.

Hally, the plan was for everyone to self vote to make us all have one, except the person who gets the gun. Why'd you do that?

Also I've changed my mind, I want Martin to have the gun.

Was Thunal/Sloonei a viable pairing? Why has that changed?

I was asked about possible wolfpairs in my POE of Thunal, Carotte and Sloonei. This would be a very weird context to bus Thunal in if you are partners, so I'm soft clearing that possibility.

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:04 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:01 pm Wait, I wasn't supposed to vote myself after hally voted us all?

I'm lost....oh well.

it was unnecessary but hally had no place bringing chaos in the first place by voting absolutely everyone

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:49 pm This post from Hally has stuck with me:

Spoiler: show

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:34 pm not actually here but i thought of another question i have for @Sloonei

your response to the pressure on you in the wall you posted focused on try to find bad faith pushes. but im also curious to hear your takes on who is not pushing you. specifically, what do you think of carotte’s reaction to the pressure on you? what about jay’s? or anyone else who is noteworthy iyo

ime when a villager (and particularly a very strong player like yourself) is getting early heat, scum is often not in the early pushers but is instead found in those that don’t take a stance/try to have it both ways or those who tr the suspected person/try to white knight or pocket them. if you’re a villager you have a very unique and valuable pov on that and i’d like to see you explore that angle too

if you’ve already done this since i last posted, disregard and i’ll see it later

I have not gotten around to digging into this, but it's stayed on my mind over the last ~24 hours. Not actively; I'm not scouring the thread looking for opportunism directed at me. But it's been in the back of my mind. And there is a little siren going off back there when I see Thunal's progression on Sloonei.

Early on she's not quite there yet, but appears to be leaving the door open.

Later on, however, when the Sloonei pressure feels (to me) like it's becoming more viable, Thunal hops on board:

Spoiler: show

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:58 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:30 pm sloonei's tone is just wrong, I wish I could explain it better. it's like his posts are stilted, though that's not quite the right word. and it kind of feels like he's throwing out townreads to counteract it and look like he's solving. I also didn't like his hedge on LC

Yeah, I think Sloonei seems defensive and I dislike the fact that he took issue with not being one of JJJ's townreads despite him not doing much at that point. His "case" on me doesn't feel right either. Yes, I got confused and thought there was a player in the game that actually didn't exist (a player with the username Carotte here). I gave that nonexistent player a null read because I thought they posted almost nothing, that's not inconsistent.

To be fair, this does come shortly after I stated my previous concern with Thunal re: her treatment of Carot. Thunal's response to that can be found here. It's short, but I don't object to it. That's a believable explanation for the slip up. But that still doesn't tell me much about Thunal's alignment.

From here on, though, Thunal feels like she becomes much more critical of me:

Spoiler: show

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:59 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:49 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:46 pm Thunal is a she. And I think you're overblowing the weirdness of that, I just assumed she hadn't realized about the name and didn't particularly remember anything from Carotte hence not having a townread on her lol. It's not the type of inconsistency I'm concerned with. Do you think there's something scum indicative about it?

Sorry Thunal!

I am wary of the progression and want to highlight it. I could see it coming from scum, but it doesn't need to. I want Thunal to respond to it before I say more.

You are either in a tunnel or pretending to be. If you want me to prove that I am town, let me do my thing.

how is there so much linki in a light game?

"or pretending to be"? Can you elaborate on your read on Nutella?

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:39 pm

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:36 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:34 pm My PoE is LC, Jay, and Sloonei with a low confidence level in that PoE. I know I've been asked before when I had a PoE the same size as the actual mafia team whether I think I've solved the game, and I definitely do not believe I've solved the game here.
Martin and Carotte are sort of in my outer PoE.
My strongest TRs are nutella, Hally, and tutuu.

Phantom votes:

Town: nutella
Scum: Sloonei

Earlier you said that you also don't really get all the scumreads on Sloonei for his nutella read. What made you change your mind to vote him now?

His recent posts look scummy, his earlier ones look null. I dislike that he's making a case on me for thinking Carotte was a different player than you, I feel like that's a really easy thing for scum to grab onto. I also dislike that most of his posts have been responding to suspicion rather than solving. It feels a bit like self-pres minded scum. However I understand JJJ's point, I won't push Sloonei hard until he's had more of a chance to show his alignment.

There's a few points in particular I could address as feeling a bit like opportunistic misconstructions:

Spoiler: show

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:24 am Re: read on Sloonei, I dislike that he said he would contribute more last night and never did. I actually don't scumread him based on his early posts and I think his read on Nutella looks okay, but we gave him more of a chance and it really feels like he cares more about self-pres than solving and his content has been underwhelming.

Where did I say the underlined bit? And the bit about me being caring "more about self-pres than solving" is bogus. This is the same argument I had with Phighter in Champs. Sometimes I solve through people's reads on me. It's a comfortable foot hold for me early in games especially. There was more sustained suspicion against me than I like in this game, but I am not responding to these things purely from a defensive or "self-preserving" posture: I am trying to read people's reads of me. That is an offensive move, not defensive. This is me solving the game, Thunal.

Spoiler: show

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:10 am I had the same thoughts as SPF here. This post feels careful and forced somehow, and Sloonei never did his thing and tried to prove he was town. The read also seems hedgy "I could see it coming from scum but it doesn't need to" and I can definitely see the point of Sloonei not wanting to get his hands dirty on any wagon. He's not taking a whole lot of stances in general either. I tried to give him some space but he still hasn't done anything towny, in fact he only looked more scummy when he posted more.

This is the first time Thunal and I have met, and I've certainly been misread in this light by players unfamiliar with my style before. But the underlined is just Thunal suspecting Sloonei for being Sloonei. I stated a concern, not an outright suspicion, about her earlier, and she has been regarding that as if it was supposed to be something more firm than it was. My original post on Thunal was meant as a conversation piece, not a "case". I am not the kind of player who will avoid "getting my hands dirty" as either alignment.

Spoiler: show

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:52 pm Also to anyone who knows Sloonei's meta, does he take pride in his scum game? Does he have more motivation as town or as scum when he's a candidate for a chop?

This also felt a bit icky, but it's another thing that I do not necessarily need to see as bad (I am reminded of Dizzy's Final Day concern about my emotional state in Champs). Thunal sees my relatively deflated posture in this game and prompts the thread about it. That's not an unfair observation, but I still am wary of the person who brought it in.

At this point, however, the Sloonei wagon seems to be dying down. I do not know how tightly a wolf would cling to it at this point. This could be Mafia Thunal trying to take one last swing at it to see if it'll go anywhere.

To be fair to Thunal, the flip side of this is that her suspicion against me started in earnest after I became critical of her, and it is not at all unreasonable for something like that to cause a civilian to become more focused on the player in question. This post right here is Exhibit A for that argument. But Hally's question has resonated with me, and Thunal's arrival on the Sloonei Wagon was relatively late and, in my view, at least a little bit unfounded.

this post took longer to compile than I hoped. I have just over an hour to figure things out. I'll take a quick look at carot, but I'd prefer to spend most of my remaining time in the present.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:51 pm Why are we giving the gun to spf?

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:53 pm i mean

we kinda had the majority vote and everything

i can count the votes but i dont think the majority agreed to give it to spf

im not really cool with hally and nutella strongarming to give the gun to spf? what happened to the whole town as a whole working together?

let me tally the votes i guess

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:56 pm I'm caught up. Ruling out Thunal/Sloonei for now, which looks decent for Thunal.

Hally, the plan was for everyone to self vote to make us all have one, except the person who gets the gun. Why'd you do that?

Also I've changed my mind, I want Martin to have the gun.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:08 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:04 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:01 pm Wait, I wasn't supposed to vote myself after hally voted us all?

I'm lost....oh well.

it was unnecessary but hally had no place bringing chaos in the first place by voting absolutely everyone

I don't think there's any reason to be mad at them, it makes total sense since they wanted spf to be lowest and they're compensating for that. We can always add more votes to balance it. There's no problem here, it's gonna be fine. Chill. Pls.

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:10 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:51 pm Why are we giving the gun to spf?

why shouldn’t we?

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:57 pm now martin has 2 fucking votes jesus fucking christ...

i mean it doesnt matter i guess but this is pissing me off

@Hally why did u vote everyone because you single hadnedly decided spf should get the gun? what happened to the plan?

sloonei i voted for myself

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:08 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:04 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:01 pm Wait, I wasn't supposed to vote myself after hally voted us all?

I'm lost....oh well.

it was unnecessary but hally had no place bringing chaos in the first place by voting absolutely everyone

I don't think there's any reason to be mad at them, it makes total sense since they wanted spf to be lowest and they're compensating for that. We can always add more votes to balance it. There's no problem here, it's gonna be fine. Chill. Pls.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:14 pm Honestly the contrast between spf carelessly self voting versus tutuu absolutely flipping out about someone besides herself getting preferred for the save just makes me want to save spf even more over tutuu. Sorry.

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:04 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:01 pm Wait, I wasn't supposed to vote myself after hally voted us all?

I'm lost....oh well.

it was unnecessary but hally had no place bringing chaos in the first place by voting absolutely everyone

Alison wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:13 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:08 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:04 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:01 pm Wait, I wasn't supposed to vote myself after hally voted us all?

I'm lost....oh well.

it was unnecessary but hally had no place bringing chaos in the first place by voting absolutely everyone

I don't think there's any reason to be mad at them, it makes total sense since they wanted spf to be lowest and they're compensating for that. We can always add more votes to balance it. There's no problem here, it's gonna be fine. Chill. Pls.

The plan was to come to a consensus on who gets the gun through phantom voting and then guarantee that consensus is carried out by realvoting, not to unilaterally make a decision on who should get the gun.

I'm not like super mad at this since SPF was in my doc pool as well but I do think tutuu/nova/Martin were better choices so I'm at least mildly irritated.

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:13 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:57 pm now martin has 2 fucking votes jesus fucking christ...

i mean it doesnt matter i guess but this is pissing me off

@Hally why did u vote everyone because you single hadnedly decided spf should get the gun? what happened to the plan?

sloonei i voted for myself

i didn’t decide that. i put everyone at one vote. that is effectively like everyone having no votes. now we can all decide who should have the least. i dont get what the issue is

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:10 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:51 pm Why are we giving the gun to spf?

why shouldn’t we?