The Syndicate

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:44 pm ....yeah, we chop tutuu over epi here

psi pls

look at where esooa groups you with tutuu as townreads

psi actually knows whats up

dont listen to nutella, psi. trust yourself and you will be right

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:44 pm ....yeah, we chop tutuu over epi here

psi pls

look at where esooa groups you with tutuu as townreads

No

This does not matter

Esooa can put a general-consensus-townread in with a pocket townread and it doesn't mean one is her teammate

I refuse to believe Tutuu is mafia

This goes against my read and my brain does not comprehend

I am confident that Tutuu is town and I trust my gut enough to know that this read at the very least is correct

I may not be the best at reading anyone ever, and certainly not Tutuu who's scum game I've never read, but I am confident in this at least and I literally cannot see it any other way

dunya wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:36 pm i'll sleep on it. nanook, tell me what you think.

I don’t think it’s Epi lol

I don’t have a high confidence read on low key Epi but I kinda think he’s town

hell yea PSI go GET EM GURL

DAB on the haters

everyone b like "REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE IF U DONT SCUMREAD TUTU WE GONNA BEAT YO ASS WE GONNA MESS U UP REAL GOOD U BETTER LISTEN AND VOTE TUTU OR ELSE"

BUT PSI IS LIKE

"HELL NAW BITCH GET OFF MY FUCKING FACE I AINT DOING SHIT DAB DAB DAB DAB DAB DAB DAB"

starting to wonder if i should rescind my strength of lock on psi bc she'd definitely fit as having tmi on tutuu being town and pushing unequivocally for the epi chop if epi is the 8ball aaaaaaaa

Mmmmmm lemme say a thing about Epi

Notice almost every time Esooa mentions him she says something along the lines of "I want to think X but there's also Y..." This is a wishy-washy read I most often see from teammates. I know this from experience because I've done this very thing myself as mafia.

The "when he flips town" thing could be TMI but I don't think it necessarily has to. I think there's more evidence that they are teammates than that they aren't tbh

i think the "when" thing is almost certainly tmi

and i think he is the 8 ball and you are suspicious for pushing him so hard here and refusing to even slightly consider tutuu when several others think she is scum


if you ended up in a f3 with tutuu you'd consider she can be mafia right??

Oh this is spicy.

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:57 pm starting to wonder if i should rescind my strength of lock on psi bc she'd definitely fit as having tmi on tutuu being town and pushing unequivocally for the epi chop if epi is the 8ball aaaaaaaa

Nah man this is my overconfident townie ass talkin' here I never get this overconfident as mafia

Besides this would look so bad for me if Epi flips town I know I'll probably be one of the first on the chopping block tomorrow if he does, I could never imagine doing something this risky when there's so many drawbacks and it's not even that close to the end of the game

I mean it's up to you whether you believe me or not since you've never seen my scum game but I know in my head that's how it be so yeah

Esooa wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:56 am

dunya wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:49 am

Esooa wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:44 am So I also feel most comfortable voting nutella cause she's not exactly LHF like the others I'd usually be ok with voting for

i don't understand this part. you're ok with voting for low-hanging fruit? who is LHF in this game in your opinion?

I'm generally pretty ok with voting LHF cause I.E. killing a player like epi who seems pretty good will be a lot worse when he flips town compared to someone like Marmot (not offense to him just picking up from the thread he's pretty LHF xd). And I don't have very good reads yet which is mb, but because of that I generally would default to voting someone who's more scummy on average

and on the PSI thing, I guess I can see what you mean by she would make it up as a weird response to pressure as maf. I guess I thought it made sense cause linki is annoying but it wouldn't really change my posts lol

yes, esooa is absolutely a player who would forget that she isn't supposed to know that epi is town and she isn't supposed to let everyone else know this

scumslips like this are definitely a thing that exist, and esooa is definitely prone to making them

What if it's just Marmot tho?

I loved you post epi, you town machine you

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:59 pm i think the "when" thing is almost certainly tmi

and i think he is the 8 ball and you are suspicious for pushing him so hard here and refusing to even slightly consider tutuu when several others think she is scum


if you ended up in a f3 with tutuu you'd consider she can be mafia right??

P sure I've used that kind of language about my teammate before honestly, so it's not out of the realm of possibility

Of course I'd consider, that's how you play

I just really don't think she's the correct chop for today and I think y'all are making a mistake

PSI best player in the world. respect

u are our last hope

Do you think tutuu is the 8ball PSI?

dunya wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 7:07 pm Do you think tutuu is the 8ball PSI?

No I doubt it

Still p sure Marmot is the 8-ball

Why can't Marmot be wolf here?

I mean he can be I'm just townreading him right now so him being the 8-ball is my current theory

Like esooa was kinda protecting Marmot by calling him lhf in this setup

nutella was the d1 8ball i bet i bet i bet

My poe is still tutuu, marmot and epi

I feel bad about being wrong about 2 of them though

Hnnnnggggghhhhh the TMI thing is making me start to doubt myself

And Dunya has a point about Marmot

But I don't wanna change my mind already being confident was fun

actually i wonder if the optimal way to win this setup was to agree to literally not post

we all agree to not post and rng our yeets every day

there's a high concentration of mafia members, and also mafia would have no damn clue who to 8ball and we could probably get away with very few 8ball yeets, i think town winrate would be above 50%

But that's boring

What's the point of playing if we're never going to do anything

Besides DDL would just modkill us anyway

Anti-FUN

PSINightmareEmpower wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 7:16 pm But that's boring

What's the point of playing if we're never going to do anything

Besides DDL would just modkill us anyway

Edit but not really: I just realized that's not the point, you weren't suggesting it's a good idea you were just theorizing

Sorry I took it too literally

We are whooping the other game's ass with posts tho. Be proud.

i dont think marmot is the 8ball over epi based on the night i mean come on

PSINightmareEmpower wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 7:17 pm

PSINightmareEmpower wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 7:16 pm But that's boring

What's the point of playing if we're never going to do anything

Besides DDL would just modkill us anyway

Edit but not really: I just realized that's not the point, you weren't suggesting it's a good idea you were just theorizing

Sorry I took it too literally

aww its okay pat pat

i am being pretty literal

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 7:18 pm i dont think marmot is the 8ball over epi based on the night i mean come on

If he's not mafia, I think Marmot coulda been d1 8ball. Based on standard rules of games, double targeting is rarely allowed.

Hell even as mafia I don't think it's far fetched

i mean we definitely shouldnt have posted reads on n0 or n1

but we did so we have to use that and sure it's mega wifom but i feel like epi was the rational choice

I should probably try harder to gleam from esooa who was the 8ball maybe

if epi *is* mafia then sure he'd prob go for marmot as 8ball so i guess if you really believe epi is mafia then that makes sense from that pov i just really think the "when" tmi thing is a pretty strong point in his favor


he's still in the broader poe if we're wrong on tutuu but i have more reason to think he is town than i do for tutuu atm

If you reread esooa iso (it's short)

Does it feel like she's actually pocketing tutuu?

Like now I feel it's exactly either epi or Marmot lol

[VOTE: marmot] aubergine

Spewing tmi on epi hard to ignore

ok so, how to calculate odds of this. lets imagine night kills do not exist. you have a deck of 8 cards. 6 green and 2 red cards. you draw one each turn (yeet). what is the chance that you end in a situation where there are 2 remaining cards in the deck and one of them is red, or, there are 4 remaining cards in the deck and 2 of them are red (scum win)

the second one is easy. 6/8 * 5/7 * 4/6 * 3/5 = 360 / 1680 = 0.21 (roughly). so 21% to draw 4 consecutive green cards (scum win)

then, in the 79% that this does not happen (not scum win at f5), one mafia was yeeted at some point / one red card was pulled

you have 4 cards, 1 red and 3 green. whats the chance for town win? you have 2 chances to draw the red card, so 3/4 * 2/3 are the chances to not draw it (50%), so 50% to draw it

so in this scenario, the scum win% is 21% from earlier + 79%/2 = 60.5%. and town win ratio would be 39.5%

and that is without any night kills, which always hit town (always pull a green card). that would lower town win% even further, although calculating that feels tricky.

so no, bad idea. bad bad bad idea

i am actually surprised that it would end up so much below 50%. i wonder if i did the math wrong somewhere, or if not, its just surprising. interesting

and i wonder if its really that tricky to calculate the town winrate with the added complexity of 8ball nightkills

6 vs 1 is crazy considering how divided we are lol

every time a card is pulled, the mafia would have a chance equal to 1 divided by the number of cards remaining in deck to pull an extra green card

i think i can use the same numbers from before, i just need to add this. thing?

won winrate is 39.5% assuming no 8 ball kills. i can calculate the odds of 0 8ball kills, but then i have to account that sometimes game ends in f3 and sometimes in f5. so that branches off in two directions

and THEN i need to calculate for every day. like. i already branched it before. f5 vs f3

if i branch it twice again now, does that mean i need to end up with 4 branches if i follow this way of calculating it?

is there no smarter way to solve this

im bored and burnt out, i am just going to come at eod to self-pres vote. wont be reading anything

I have a deck of cards. Two of them are mafia. I pull one out. My assistant sets it on fire. It burns red. It is a mafia card.

What is the other mafia card, tutuu?

Thirty-five posts from dunya.

I don't suspect dunya but her name starts with a D and I plan on being comprehensive so kiss my ass.

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:07 am

PSINightmareEmpower wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 2:12 am
I feel like I should have a better read on Dunya but every time I pick a read my mind goes wait no and I'm back to square one. So idk there

I want to go hmmm at Nanook and Esooa for what seems like purposely avoiding game-related discussion but I can't really blame them when there isn't anything there. They're also just probably the type to do that so meh

why *should* you have a better read on me?

our day 0 strategy was to avoid game related discussion to not give mafia ideas on who to vote for. it was a sound strategy. 10/10 would do again.

interesting that psinightmare's two picks for elimination are epignosis and nutella.

I don't know why PSI is a civilian.

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:12 am

Esooa wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 4:11 am I've been strongly leading a lot of my forum games and it's been really exhausting so kinda hoping to take this one a bit more relaxed but we'll see if I can handle myself not to post 1000 times

i mean sure, but like, give us some indication you're town before you do that?

If dunya is evil, I will applaud. She isn't though.

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:20 am y is esooa town tutuu?

I'm going to scroll down to the response.

tutuu wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:18 am

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:20 am y is esooa town tutuu?

I cant write anything more than what i already wrote on her at that time

I'm going to stop here and do more important work. dunya and Esooa aren't teammates. Fuck comprehensiveness. I glanced at all the posts. My time is valuable. Moving on.

Marmot wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:47 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:23 pm Fuck being cagey with reads, dunya/nook dunya/marmot epi/esooa one of those is the team gg

Like you, I can also spew random pairings of players.

PSI/nutella, Epi/dunya, Mac/esooa


^^Them's the possibilities there folks

It's easy to poo poo this, but notice that Mac isn't in this, and Esooa is.

That's a funny coincidence if Marmot it good.

It's funny business if Marmot is bad.

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:50 am

dunya wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:49 am

Esooa wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:44 am So I also feel most comfortable voting nutella cause she's not exactly LHF like the others I'd usually be ok with voting for

i don't understand this part. you're ok with voting for low-hanging fruit? who is LHF in this game in your opinion?

Me, I am le LHF

Obviously not. But no comment on dunya or Esooa.

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:51 am

Esooa wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:56 am

dunya wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:49 am

Esooa wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:44 am So I also feel most comfortable voting nutella cause she's not exactly LHF like the others I'd usually be ok with voting for

i don't understand this part. you're ok with voting for low-hanging fruit? who is LHF in this game in your opinion?

I'm generally pretty ok with voting LHF cause I.E. killing a player like epi who seems pretty good will be a lot worse when he flips town compared to someone like Marmot (not offense to him just picking up from the thread he's pretty LHF xd). And I don't have very good reads yet which is mb, but because of that I generally would default to voting someone who's more scummy on average

and on the PSI thing, I guess I can see what you mean by she would make it up as a weird response to pressure as maf. I guess I thought it made sense cause linki is annoying but it wouldn't really change my posts lol

I didn't mean it!!!

No comment on dunya or Esooa.

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:21 pm I'm fine with an esooa chop.

If...

She's not the kinda person mafia would target N0.

This came during that time in which Esooa quit The Syndicate. Marmot went out of his way to make sure we remembered there's a mechanic in play.

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:46 pm I don't want to chop myself, that's just where my vote is.

Nanook's logic wert to the nk is flawed. Or at least incomplete. Actually, I'm now realizing what he's saying. Regardless of the flip today, if mafia gets a nightkill, we can learn a lot from the discussion leading up to the vote.

I'm fine with an esooa chop. I don't want to chop myself, but I'm also ok with it. I do think I'm probably the "easiest" misyeet in this game, and something could be learned from it.

That said, I don't have any strong reads currently except for PSI town, so I'm going to stick to the strategy of random voting.

Marmot is "fine" with it again. Reminding us that he's "fine with an esooa chop." Two posts in a row using the exact same language.

"So I'm' going to stick to the strategy of random voting."

Okay then.

[VOTE: Marmot] aubergine

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:04 am Yeah I can compromise to esooa I think

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:13 pm Ehhhhh

I could be convinced but I kinda would just rather kill esooa tbh

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:24 pm Eh I don’t wanna make dunya mad back to esooa it is

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 3:41 pm Eh if I were mafia I’d probably want to mark mafia, and in most teams esooa would be the logical choice

All of these posts came after Esooa quit The Syndicate. There's no reason given as to why Esooa should die.

Nanook looks like he threw Esooa under the bus.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:52 pm I think I’m just prepared to take dunya and Nutella as town and not reassess until f3 tbh

If it’s right then game is locked, if it’s wrong then I’ll figure it out at f3 and/or be the losing miskill

Either way I think it’s the right move tbh

This is operating on the assumption that mafia wouldn't kill them though.

tutuu wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 3:26 pm if marmot is town though we all ought to give him kudos (for correctly townreading me)

it takes bravery to go against the town consensus, and not only do that, but also be right

My townread of you lasted only 4 minutes, sorry.

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 11:39 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 3:26 pm if marmot is town though we all ought to give him kudos (for correctly townreading me)

it takes bravery to go against the town consensus, and not only do that, but also be right

My townread of you lasted only 4 minutes, sorry.

Nutella said you were pocketing me, which isn't correct. But I do sense attempts at that in this post.

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 11:35 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:52 pm I think I’m just prepared to take dunya and Nutella as town and not reassess until f3 tbh

If it’s right then game is locked, if it’s wrong then I’ll figure it out at f3 and/or be the losing miskill

Either way I think it’s the right move tbh

This is operating on the assumption that mafia wouldn't kill them though.

Correct it is operating under the assumption that we can avoid a NK