The Syndicate

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:35 pm Im down for either Sabie, Gavial or Sig today.

I agree tbh.

Don't like Sabie's vote on Marmot and her explanation around it at all.
I still don't think Sig/Gavial are teamed. I'd vote Gavial over Sig, independent of what I think of their alignment tbh.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:59 pm Has NAA actually posted?

I normally post more but Guillotine is giving me the creeps but i dont want to engage that troll in this game.

Gavial
3 Voters: Marmot, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, Sabie12
Guillotine
1 Voters: sig
Jackofhearts2005
3 Voters: Gavial, Dyslexicon, Lime Coke
MacDougall
1 Voters: DrWilgy
Marmot
1 Voters: falcon45casabie12
Sabie12
6 Voters: Seanzie, NotAnAxehole, TonyStarkPrime, LinearPoint, Guillotine, MartinGG99
Seanzie
1 Voters: MacDougall

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:49 pm Interestingly enough, NAA went from Dyslexicon -> Marmot -> Sabie

If I remember correctly. They aren't posting their votes but I think they've jumped twice now.

I confirm the former is accurate, of course me confirming that does not actually put any additional weight on it being true.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:58 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:54 pm So I just did a meta-dive on Sabie and was about to vote there, but now there are 5 voters, one of which is NotAnAxehole voting without saying anything in thread...

I still kinda want to vote there, but I don't feel nearly as good about it as I did before I saw the wagon...

[VOTE: Sabie12] aubergine

where does marmot fit in your mind right now if you're voting Sabie

I still think Marmot is >rand!scum. Sabie had weird progression on Marmot, so I don't see them as necessarily anti-teamed even though Sabie was voting Marmot (I also could see Marmot telling his teammates they could bus if they need to). If Sable flips wolf, I'll look further at that tomorrow, but for now I don't really like doing pre-flip associatives because it tends to lead me to confbias rather than form good reads, so my read on them is more-or-less independent of each other.

I'm fine with both Gavial and Sabie tbh.

I'll look up if Gavial badgered others about reads in his previous scum game, or if that really is a town indicator like LP suggested.

Guillo, Sean, LP, Lime, TSP <-- Town reads.

In light of Sabie's recent posts, I think I like them a bit more, but still don't know if I prefer Sabie or Gav, probably about equally fine with either lynch now.
I also realize I misread a post from Sabie earlier where they talked about Jack thinking they were talking about Marmot.
I think perhaps the only thing giving me pause the a Mafia Sabie is that I was under the impression they were behaving like an opportunistic Mafia, but they switch to Gav wagon instead of Jack wagon now.
I'd expect them to go on the second biggest wagon to save themselves, but I dunno. Sabie sort of is giving of the tone of someone whose half given up. Hard to tell if that's coming from Mafia or Town though.

Could be distancing, but I suspect 1 Mafia between Gav/Sabie not both.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 12:30 pm I can possibly see a world where Jack is Mafia and Guillotine's vote on Gav being a desperation move to 50/50 the lynch so a Mafia isn't offed.
For now I'm going to switch to Marmot, but if people don't get on so we can actually decide a lynch instead of randoming it I'll throw my vote onto one of the other wagons.

[VOTE: Marmot] aubergine

Yep definitely Town!
I was thinking that as well!

It's more now just a question if the Sabie wagon was actually town formed, or if the Mafia felt it was a good idea to switch to it instead of Marmot due to the pressure on Marmot's wagon.

The fact I Mind melted with both Mac and LP means they are both definitely town.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:16 pm It's more now just a question if the Sabie wagon was actually town formed, or if the Mafia felt it was a good idea to switch to it instead of Marmot due to the pressure on Marmot's wagon.

Marmot wasn’t there.
It was Me, Dizzy and Guillo if I recall correctly and Dizzy and Gullio seen TSP’s suspicion on Sabie so then they started a wagon on Sabie being opportunistic.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:15 pm Could be distancing, but I suspect 1 Mafia between Gav/Sabie not both.

I’m town and they are probably town.
Therefore you are wrong.

Therefore re-evaluate thread.

Martin's inclusion in the CFD lacked justification from what I saw.
NAA obviously just likes to CFD and isn't posting anyways.
Tony was there to begin with.
Obviously me and Guillotine were talking about forming it.
Sean gave a reasoning to join it, but IDK. Feels town, but could still be Mafia just not wanting to give no reason not to join.
If there is a Mafia on I suspect Martin or NAA, probably Martin because I feel like NAA is just being NAA.

So I think the CFD is Town driven.

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:31 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 8:20 am

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 7:38 am

Gavial wrote: ↑Sun Dec 19, 2021 12:53 pm I kinda wanna live though so I can continue solving and making sure something stupid doesn’t go through like last minute wagon hits on like NAA, Martin or Dolby.

Wait.. did you just TMI Martin and Dolby town?

Ok fine. You can be scum

I retract my town read on you.

[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine

really?

Yah, really. Why wouldn't he want Martin, Dolby and NAA be hit with CFD then? Has he expressed a townread on all three?

I expressed a town read on 2 of them and you know this your just purposely being rude and playing dumb.
NAA is LHF IMO and a good example of what a wolf could CFD into.

Dizzy staying off of Sabie now is lol and probably bussing Jack and realizing they are to in sync of partners with Guillo that other people might end up seeing what I’m seeing.

Sabie is an Obvious ML just like LP was in the other game.
I know where scum shoot I know how scum act.

Guillo threw us off Marmot wagon, Guillo is Power Wolf

Wolf wolf wolf

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:19 pm If there is a Mafia on I suspect Martin or NAA, probably Martin because I feel like NAA is just being NAA.

Is this regardless of flip?

I know some people don't like pre-flipping but I would like to know if you do that.

Yeah I if Guillo is town here I might just have a stroke.

I read Gavial in the Baby Heist, where he was scum. And unfortunately, I think he's town his game. Rip. He didn't really ask many for their reads in the Baby game, he fluffed more and joked more, and seemed a bit more detached. It's a bit of a different vibe. They tunnelled me all D1 for no reason there too though. Seems to be just what Gavial does. I'd still won't object to a chop on him, cause I'm not totally confident and I wouldn't feel bad if he flips town.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:19 pm Martin's inclusion in the CFD lacked justification from what I saw.
NAA obviously just likes to CFD and isn't posting anyways.
Tony was there to begin with.
Obviously me and Guillotine were talking about forming it.
Sean gave a reasoning to join it, but IDK. Feels town, but could still be Mafia just not wanting to give no reason not to join.
If there is a Mafia on I suspect Martin or NAA, probably Martin because I feel like NAA is just being NAA.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:20 pm So I think the CFD is Town driven.

I think more town are on it then not but Guillo/Sean I’m worry about, especially Gullio.

NAA is Null.
TSP is being manipulated and never remove their vote once they put it on.
You and Martin are definitely town.

[VOTE: Sabbie] aubergine without a particularly good reason to do so besides perfecting that to cws

[VOTE: Sig] aubergine

Because he said something I haven't heard town say yet about Gavial's play.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:24 pm I read Gavial in the Baby Heist, where he was scum. And unfortunately, I think he's town his game. Rip. He didn't really ask many for their reads in the Baby game, he fluffed more and joked more, and seemed a bit more detached. It's a bit of a different vibe. They tunnelled me all D1 for no reason there too though. Seems to be just what Gavial does. I'd still won't object to a chop on him, cause I'm not totally confident and I wouldn't feel bad if he flips town.

I could be wrong on you I’ll admit.
I don’t think I am but I could be.

But Guillo is wolf.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:24 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:19 pm If there is a Mafia on I suspect Martin or NAA, probably Martin because I feel like NAA is just being NAA.

Is this regardless of flip?

I know some people don't like pre-flipping but I would like to know if you do that.

Well I think if Sabie flips Mafia the entire CFD analysis is thrown out the window.
More just trying to think of how the CFD might look if Sabie is Town.
I agree with not liking to pre-flip analysis at least for justification to lynch someone instead of the current wagon. Though I'm more just looking for the scenario where this isn't a Town motivated lynch.
Currently I don't think it's Mafia motivated.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:43 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 10:36 am What's the case against Jack?

I'm voting him because his "oh haha I'm here" with an added "wait, did scum already flip?" seems performative, as the kids says. I also think he was asking questions to Gavial that he didn't care much to get the answer from. Like, he made conversation, but I don't think he cared to do anything else than just get some posts out. I didn't like it. Jack is hard to read, but I've done well doing it in the past. But yeah, not a very confident read either way tbh.

Was his approach to Gav partnered? Is that why he sounded like he was just making conversation?

If you can do something to show your town if you are I’d like to see it but as it stands if Guillo flips wolf you will be my main target next.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:05 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:59 pm Has NAA actually posted?

I normally post more but Guillotine is giving me the creeps but i dont want to engage that troll in this game.

And this is why i dont engage with him.

I was hoping i would get a killing role to vig him on night 1 but life only gives lemons.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:26 pm [VOTE: Sabbie] aubergine without a particularly good reason to do so besides perfecting that to cws

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:27 pm [VOTE: Sig] aubergine

Because he said something I haven't heard town say yet about Gavial's play.

Guillo/Dizzy/Jack still very likely aligned.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:27 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:43 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 10:36 am What's the case against Jack?

I'm voting him because his "oh haha I'm here" with an added "wait, did scum already flip?" seems performative, as the kids says. I also think he was asking questions to Gavial that he didn't care much to get the answer from. Like, he made conversation, but I don't think he cared to do anything else than just get some posts out. I didn't like it. Jack is hard to read, but I've done well doing it in the past. But yeah, not a very confident read either way tbh.

Was his approach to Gav partnered? Is that why he sounded like he was just making conversation?

Could be or could not be. But I tend to think Gav is town, unfortunately.

Curious why you chose to try and go for a new wagon than anything else Dizzy.
You said you're fine with both Gav and Sabie, but don't vote either and now say you think Gav is Town.

I think the best I can do for this day is

Top of the list: Guillo, Sean, LP, Lime, TSP
Bottom of the list is: Sig, Sabie, Jack

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:31 pm Curious why you chose to try and go for a new wagon than anything else Dizzy.
You said you're fine with both Gav and Sabie, but don't vote either and now say you think Gav is Town.

Well, Sabie is in the lead anyway.
I know several people have been scum reading Sig, and I think there's a decent chance he's mafia.
In fact, I think Sabie and Sig can both be mafia, cause I remember their soft ball interaction.
I'd rather have Sig as a competing wagon though, and I usually do prefer competing wagons instead of one large one, but I know some people don't.

I town lean Gavial after rereading his D1 from the last game we played and he was mafia. He seems different here in a significant enough way.

Gavial wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:27 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:24 pm I read Gavial in the Baby Heist, where he was scum. And unfortunately, I think he's town his game. Rip. He didn't really ask many for their reads in the Baby game, he fluffed more and joked more, and seemed a bit more detached. It's a bit of a different vibe. They tunnelled me all D1 for no reason there too though. Seems to be just what Gavial does. I'd still won't object to a chop on him, cause I'm not totally confident and I wouldn't feel bad if he flips town.

I could be wrong on you I’ll admit.
I don’t think I am but I could be.

But Guillo is wolf.

Thanks for spewing me town if you are a wolf.

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:31 pm Curious why you chose to try and go for a new wagon than anything else Dizzy.
You said you're fine with both Gav and Sabie, but don't vote either and now say you think Gav is Town.

Ok this guy is town because we are thinking the same shit.

Bare in mind that Dizzy never ever buss their partners.

Gavial wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:28 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:26 pm [VOTE: Sabbie] aubergine without a particularly good reason to do so besides perfecting that to cws

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:27 pm [VOTE: Sig] aubergine

Because he said something I haven't heard town say yet about Gavial's play.

Guillo/Dizzy/Jack still very likely aligned.

Me/Dizzy/Gav

I feel as tho Sig has dipped after getting D0 heat

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:35 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:31 pm Curious why you chose to try and go for a new wagon than anything else Dizzy.
You said you're fine with both Gav and Sabie, but don't vote either and now say you think Gav is Town.

Well, Sabie is in the lead anyway.
I know several people have been scum reading Sig, and I think there's a decent chance he's mafia.
In fact, I think Sabie and Sig can both be mafia, cause I remember their soft ball interaction.
I'd rather have Sig as a competing wagon though, and I usually do prefer competing wagons instead of one large one, but I know some people don't.

I town lean Gavial after rereading his D1 from the last game we played and he was mafia. He seems different here in a significant enough way.

In your opinion, is Gavial a polarized player?

Honestly yeah I can kind of see that reading Sig's posts.
What mostly get's me is their lack of reads in favor of bread crums of reads such as questions like "is Sean usually aggressive" and simple things like "I don't like this" or "I like this"
This is probably the most egregious one.

sig wrote: ↑Sun Dec 19, 2021 1:03 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sun Dec 19, 2021 12:56 pm Gavial might be town after all. Hard to tell with him, so interested to see what others think.

Is gavial usually high content mafia member?

Since I'm liking the level of though and quality of his posts atm

It's basically just shade while saying he thinks he's town.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:41 pm I feel as tho Sig has dipped after getting D0 heat

Correct after they omgus me

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:40 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:31 pm Curious why you chose to try and go for a new wagon than anything else Dizzy.
You said you're fine with both Gav and Sabie, but don't vote either and now say you think Gav is Town.

Ok this guy is town because we are thinking the same shit.

Bare in mind that Dizzy never ever buss their partners.

I've done that plenty of times lol. =p

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:41 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:35 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:31 pm Curious why you chose to try and go for a new wagon than anything else Dizzy.
You said you're fine with both Gav and Sabie, but don't vote either and now say you think Gav is Town.

Well, Sabie is in the lead anyway.
I know several people have been scum reading Sig, and I think there's a decent chance he's mafia.
In fact, I think Sabie and Sig can both be mafia, cause I remember their soft ball interaction.
I'd rather have Sig as a competing wagon though, and I usually do prefer competing wagons instead of one large one, but I know some people don't.

I town lean Gavial after rereading his D1 from the last game we played and he was mafia. He seems different here in a significant enough way.

In your opinion, is Gavial a polarized player?

I thought he was, but he was able to fool most players in his last scum game, including Alison. So probably not very.

So yeah, I don't think a Sig CFD is realistic, but I'd probably focus on him for tomorrow. Sadly the vigilantes can't act tonight otherwise I'd probably just vig him outright.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:46 pm

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:41 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:35 pm

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:31 pm Curious why you chose to try and go for a new wagon than anything else Dizzy.
You said you're fine with both Gav and Sabie, but don't vote either and now say you think Gav is Town.

Well, Sabie is in the lead anyway.
I know several people have been scum reading Sig, and I think there's a decent chance he's mafia.
In fact, I think Sabie and Sig can both be mafia, cause I remember their soft ball interaction.
I'd rather have Sig as a competing wagon though, and I usually do prefer competing wagons instead of one large one, but I know some people don't.

I town lean Gavial after rereading his D1 from the last game we played and he was mafia. He seems different here in a significant enough way.

In your opinion, is Gavial a polarized player?

I thought he was, but he was able to fool most players in his last scum game, including Alison. So probably not very.

Then why search for meta to read him when you are highly capable of reading any player based on behavioral petterns and agenda?

@TonyStarkPrime or @LinearPoint or anyone who's good at mech. Did we get any closer to having roles who can be confirmed?

Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:48 pmThen why search for meta to read him when you are highly capable of reading any player based on behavioral petterns and agenda?

Jesus christ what a question.

I thought LP's point about Gavial badgering people about their reads was solid, and I wanted to check his scum game to see if maybe that would stand out as a difference in his mafia/town play. And I think it might. In any case, he seemed different to me in the Baby game. I search meta if there's something specific I want to look for.