The Syndicate

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:49 pm This post from Hally has stuck with me:

Spoiler: show

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:34 pm not actually here but i thought of another question i have for @Sloonei

your response to the pressure on you in the wall you posted focused on try to find bad faith pushes. but im also curious to hear your takes on who is not pushing you. specifically, what do you think of carotte’s reaction to the pressure on you? what about jay’s? or anyone else who is noteworthy iyo

ime when a villager (and particularly a very strong player like yourself) is getting early heat, scum is often not in the early pushers but is instead found in those that don’t take a stance/try to have it both ways or those who tr the suspected person/try to white knight or pocket them. if you’re a villager you have a very unique and valuable pov on that and i’d like to see you explore that angle too

if you’ve already done this since i last posted, disregard and i’ll see it later

I have not gotten around to digging into this, but it's stayed on my mind over the last ~24 hours. Not actively; I'm not scouring the thread looking for opportunism directed at me. But it's been in the back of my mind. And there is a little siren going off back there when I see Thunal's progression on Sloonei.

Early on she's not quite there yet, but appears to be leaving the door open.

Later on, however, when the Sloonei pressure feels (to me) like it's becoming more viable, Thunal hops on board:

Spoiler: show

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:58 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:30 pm sloonei's tone is just wrong, I wish I could explain it better. it's like his posts are stilted, though that's not quite the right word. and it kind of feels like he's throwing out townreads to counteract it and look like he's solving. I also didn't like his hedge on LC

Yeah, I think Sloonei seems defensive and I dislike the fact that he took issue with not being one of JJJ's townreads despite him not doing much at that point. His "case" on me doesn't feel right either. Yes, I got confused and thought there was a player in the game that actually didn't exist (a player with the username Carotte here). I gave that nonexistent player a null read because I thought they posted almost nothing, that's not inconsistent.

To be fair, this does come shortly after I stated my previous concern with Thunal re: her treatment of Carot. Thunal's response to that can be found here. It's short, but I don't object to it. That's a believable explanation for the slip up. But that still doesn't tell me much about Thunal's alignment.

From here on, though, Thunal feels like she becomes much more critical of me:

Spoiler: show

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:59 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:49 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:46 pm Thunal is a she. And I think you're overblowing the weirdness of that, I just assumed she hadn't realized about the name and didn't particularly remember anything from Carotte hence not having a townread on her lol. It's not the type of inconsistency I'm concerned with. Do you think there's something scum indicative about it?

Sorry Thunal!

I am wary of the progression and want to highlight it. I could see it coming from scum, but it doesn't need to. I want Thunal to respond to it before I say more.

You are either in a tunnel or pretending to be. If you want me to prove that I am town, let me do my thing.

how is there so much linki in a light game?

"or pretending to be"? Can you elaborate on your read on Nutella?

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:39 pm

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:36 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:34 pm My PoE is LC, Jay, and Sloonei with a low confidence level in that PoE. I know I've been asked before when I had a PoE the same size as the actual mafia team whether I think I've solved the game, and I definitely do not believe I've solved the game here.
Martin and Carotte are sort of in my outer PoE.
My strongest TRs are nutella, Hally, and tutuu.

Phantom votes:

Town: nutella
Scum: Sloonei

Earlier you said that you also don't really get all the scumreads on Sloonei for his nutella read. What made you change your mind to vote him now?

His recent posts look scummy, his earlier ones look null. I dislike that he's making a case on me for thinking Carotte was a different player than you, I feel like that's a really easy thing for scum to grab onto. I also dislike that most of his posts have been responding to suspicion rather than solving. It feels a bit like self-pres minded scum. However I understand JJJ's point, I won't push Sloonei hard until he's had more of a chance to show his alignment.

There's a few points in particular I could address as feeling a bit like opportunistic misconstructions:

Spoiler: show

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:24 am Re: read on Sloonei, I dislike that he said he would contribute more last night and never did. I actually don't scumread him based on his early posts and I think his read on Nutella looks okay, but we gave him more of a chance and it really feels like he cares more about self-pres than solving and his content has been underwhelming.

Where did I say the underlined bit? And the bit about me being caring "more about self-pres than solving" is bogus. This is the same argument I had with Phighter in Champs. Sometimes I solve through people's reads on me. It's a comfortable foot hold for me early in games especially. There was more sustained suspicion against me than I like in this game, but I am not responding to these things purely from a defensive or "self-preserving" posture: I am trying to read people's reads of me. That is an offensive move, not defensive. This is me solving the game, Thunal.

Spoiler: show

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:10 am I had the same thoughts as SPF here. This post feels careful and forced somehow, and Sloonei never did his thing and tried to prove he was town. The read also seems hedgy "I could see it coming from scum but it doesn't need to" and I can definitely see the point of Sloonei not wanting to get his hands dirty on any wagon. He's not taking a whole lot of stances in general either. I tried to give him some space but he still hasn't done anything towny, in fact he only looked more scummy when he posted more.

This is the first time Thunal and I have met, and I've certainly been misread in this light by players unfamiliar with my style before. But the underlined is just Thunal suspecting Sloonei for being Sloonei. I stated a concern, not an outright suspicion, about her earlier, and she has been regarding that as if it was supposed to be something more firm than it was. My original post on Thunal was meant as a conversation piece, not a "case". I am not the kind of player who will avoid "getting my hands dirty" as either alignment.

Spoiler: show

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:52 pm Also to anyone who knows Sloonei's meta, does he take pride in his scum game? Does he have more motivation as town or as scum when he's a candidate for a chop?

This also felt a bit icky, but it's another thing that I do not necessarily need to see as bad (I am reminded of Dizzy's Final Day concern about my emotional state in Champs). Thunal sees my relatively deflated posture in this game and prompts the thread about it. That's not an unfair observation, but I still am wary of the person who brought it in.

At this point, however, the Sloonei wagon seems to be dying down. I do not know how tightly a wolf would cling to it at this point. This could be Mafia Thunal trying to take one last swing at it to see if it'll go anywhere.

To be fair to Thunal, the flip side of this is that her suspicion against me started in earnest after I became critical of her, and it is not at all unreasonable for something like that to cause a civilian to become more focused on the player in question. This post right here is Exhibit A for that argument. But Hally's question has resonated with me, and Thunal's arrival on the Sloonei Wagon was relatively late and, in my view, at least a little bit unfounded.

this post took longer to compile than I hoped. I have just over an hour to figure things out. I'll take a quick look at carot, but I'd prefer to spend most of my remaining time in the present.

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 3:37 pm @nutella where are you at with your reads generally?

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:25 am So far I feel like Thunal is really reserved. There's a kind of weirdish balance between very specific reactions and general agreeing/bouncing off that feels a bit like ~blending in.

Spoiler: show

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:00 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:54 pm I also think I can town-lean Thunal33 so far.

His explanation didn't match what I think a scum would be possibly inclined to say.

What do you think a scum would be inclined to say?

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:24 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:06 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:56 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:54 pm I also think I can town-lean Thunal33 so far.

His explanation didn't match what I think a scum would be possibly inclined to say.

can you expand on this a little bit more? how would you expect scum to react to your question, and how did her answer differ?

I think a scum would point to my aforementioned level of experience in FM games with regards to my comfort level in response. As in, that would be the easy argument to make; a new player who's scum may be more uncomfortable than most players.

Instead, Thunal33 starts talking about themselves in comparison, and that's why they think my comfort level can be AI at the moment.

As to whether that's something they can do as part of one's "scumrange", I don't know and time will tell.

For the moment though, I think that process of thought or reasoning was more likely to be from town than scum.

That makes sense, I don't think I would talk about how I'm often nervous at the start as scum if I'm nervous scum.

The second post (it's the answer to post #1) feels really weird. It's like, acknowledging it for the sake of acknowledging it and the way Thunal is agreeing with the townread on her doesn't feel super natural, especially since the initial question was not answered.

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:28 am I don't get the commotion about Sloonei tbh, I believe that he believes in his read. :P

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:11 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:59 pm where did carotte switch to tr’ing thun? did i miss that? why did that happen @Carotenoid?

I said that I liked them more today here
It's not really a townread though. I... don't actually remember what I liked but there was some posts I liked.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 3:41 pm should i vote for the non-SPF 1-vote people to get her alone at 1?

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 3:42 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 3:37 pm @nutella where are you at with your reads generally?

spf
tutuu
nova
thunal
jay
hally
martin
lc
nanook
sloonei
alison
carotte

ish

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 3:31 pm realistically i think the n1 kill is basically ~always going to be spf or me

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:45 pm Martin has already pocketed me.

tutuu is physically incapable of randing scum as usual.

Sloonei is scum for making stuff up.

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:26 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:22 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:19 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:03 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:45 pm Martin has already pocketed me.

tutuu is physically incapable of randing scum as usual.

Sloonei is scum for making stuff up.

why do u tr tutuu?

There's the usual energy coming from her that she displays when she's town. She could be mimicking it as scum but I think it's not easy to forge and will fall apart eventually if she's faking it. I felt kinda good about #51, #53, #76, #93. Individually taken they're just mildly townie, but all four of them combined + pretty decent energy means that I'm happy to give her an early game townread.

i was wondering if you were going to bring up #93 - that's actually the strongest towntell i've seen from tutuu so far too. i feel like scum would be searching for viable targets to push on in a game with as many strong players as this, and i very much like that tutuu is willing to throw out a townread on someone for what is an admittedly tiny/small reason. it feels completely contrary to how scum have a tendency to avoid boxing themselves in - it feels like tutuu is literally doing that to her self

also, hey jagged! i'm stoked youre here

That's not the reason I townread 93. I don't really think tutuu is the type of player who takes playerlist that strongly into consideration when trying to plan out her scumplay; her playstyle doesn't strike me as being that competitive or control freak-y. I liked 93 because giving out a townread for a reason that doesn't super make sense logically but that she vibes with emotionally is something that town tutuu does a lot. I think LC's slang stuff has endeared him to tutuu, and gives off a pretty "chill" vibe that she's gut townreading. It's pretty on brand for town tutuu to express a gut townread + "I like this person so they're town" sentiment with a post like 93.

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:33 pm No I think Sloonei made up the whole thing about getting a towntell from nutella because she clarified her position or whatever in order to look like he's sorting her.

Also townreading me for making logical sense is a new approach. I like it.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:02 am I think Sloonei's behavior absolutely has warranted a "I think he's making this up". That was the thought I (and a few others) had when reading his posts, so I don't know why it's inappropriate to write it down in text. The reason I said Martin has already pocketed me is because he plays in a way that I find pretty textbook and relatable, which makes it easier to vibe with his mindset and townread him (which I do).

I think Thunal is null. Carotte's point about Thunal is interesting and it makes me go up on her slightly. I still have her as a slight scum lean on the balance of probabilities, but it's a point in her credit. I have mixed feelings about JJJ.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 3:50 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 3:31 pm realistically i think the n1 kill is basically ~always going to be spf or me

why

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:44 pm I'm caught up. Okay with the idea of giving Sloonei space to breathe. If he doesn't produce results I'm going to end up voting him anyway and I think the other people who currently suspect him will as well.

I think Thunal is very likely a wolf. They were making super surface-level reads and were never paranoid that the reads were being manipulated. eg. "Alison is town because she's confident", "Carotte is town because she re-evaluated on me". We all scumread Sloonei because he gave a baseless townread on nutella for something that was very likely NAI. Same logic applies here: I think town Thunal would hesitate a bit more and wonder if Alison/Carotte was faking these things to pocket her. Doubly so if she feels intimidated by the playerlist.

Scum Vote: Thunal

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:07 pm not surprised at all

here’s our chat: https://www.quicktopic.com/53/H/8ewu5a49uY8NC

will be around later

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:20 pm @tutuu you wanted my head on a pike in the tree house. What inspires your snap vote on Sloonei instead?

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:26 pm not actually here but uh

what on earth happened in that treehouse

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:10 pm reading grass chat. hally sounds genuine and is making me doubt my tr of thunal bc it makes sense that she'd send hally based on prior experience

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:28 pm I looked over nova's posts. Check your wifom worries if you like, but it's still worth a glance. They specifically chose to kill him instead of [some other consensus town read]. His stances as far as I can tell:

tutuu - good
hally - unclear
LC - bad
nanook - unclear
sloon - good
spf - unclear
thunal - unclear
nutella - unclear
martin - love/hate
alison - bad

I didn't concern myself with his first-post reads here, because I tend to doubt any mafia team chooses its kills with those in mind. nova's reads weren't super developed. I'm just gonna stick them here for now and think about it.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:26 pm jay do you still want to wait a bit before linking the chat?

- I've explained my case on Thunal in the thread already. Extra stuff at EOD was bad: moving to a full on scumread on me (from "uncertain") in a very opportunistic manner, right after I went to bed and can't defend myself, and right after other people voiced suspicion of me.

- Many people were unmoved by my push on Thunal, but Hally seems to take it surprisingly personally and lashed out at me for it. Notably, Hally's attack on me felt more like a chainsaw than the other suspicions on me. (compare JJJ's "I think Alison's read is fake" to Hally's line, which was more like "Thunal is a villager and you are scummy for senselessly attacking her!")

- Here's the big one. When LC triple voted the scummiest players in the game, Hally had no objection and went along with it. But at the start of the game they mentioned that they thought only voting one person and not diluting votes was important; and that the last time they played this setup, scum triple voted all the top wagons to deny themselves accountability. From that point of view, it's extremely suspicious that Hally did not raise any issue with Sloonei (someone she was scumreading earlier in the day) doing so.

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:26 pm not actually here but uh

what on earth happened in that treehouse

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:31 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:26 pm not actually here but uh

what on earth happened in that treehouse

Did you look at the chat yet? I just linked it.