Re: Day 4 (6/13) Danganronpa 3: Future Mafia
Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2025 6:48 pm
if its three, it can maybe be jack AND lc. hence lc pushing mac, instead of someone who could be scum.
Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
That's how bussing works. Why are you trying to make it seem ludicrous when you just described a common scenario?MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Apr 18, 2025 5:55 pmYou voting me and the mafia taking a queue to vote me at the opportune moment when the momentum towards my death is at its apex is not how to distance. It's how to kill. Do you think wolf Falcon genuinely wants wolf Mac dead?Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Apr 18, 2025 5:52 pmThe difference check thing is the only compelling evidence here. Articles 1 thru 3 look like standard distancing.Master Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Apr 18, 2025 5:44 pmDifference check is the most overused and misused term in contemporary Mafia so for that alone I'm happy to kill him.MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Apr 18, 2025 5:00 pm@Master Radishes Jack trying to put us in a difference check here is mafia agenda to try to keep miselims in front of Falcon who was being too passive.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 16, 2025 9:39 amI feel like Mac/Radishes are almost a....what do you call it? Difference check? One is scum and the other is town.
Gims is wolfy with Radishes, seeming very unwilling to vote there. That was the main reason I voted Radishes, because of Gims super not wanting Radishes dead, not because of anything Radishes actually did or said beyond the quadcomboposts.
I don't really get why you and I are a different check anyway. We've not interacted much.
As I say I'll look tomorrow.
Following a rando vote on you, on a go-nowhere non-wagon, on the day he gets voted out as Mafia, is actually the literal example they give in the Distancing Textbook.
I would absolutely do that. It's a win-win for falcon if you ever die, whether it be that day or a later day, he can then reference this and get easy cred, possible townlock situation.MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Apr 18, 2025 5:57 pmFalcon voted me after you and left it there all day. His and your vote put me in a situation where if the town were so compelled I'd be dead. Falcon didn't distance if I'm Mafia he bussed. And bussing me the way he did there is game losing. Why would Falcon my wolf teammate think the objective wolf wincon there is to bus me and try to carry himself?Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Apr 18, 2025 5:55 pmThere's no falcon post that spews you Town, every example you gave look like regular distancing.MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Apr 18, 2025 5:53 pm Part of me feels like LCs sus of me is somewhat genuine too. I can see a world in which he's sort of detached in a way where my still being alive and now suddenly posting a lot is just adding to suspicion he'd already vocalised and hasn't quite recognised yet that wolf Falcon sort of spewed me town by jumping on his suspicion.
That would be more likely to me than wolf Long Con doing this.
Nonsense.
IN THIS GAME you already have gims absolutely convinced that you are Town, as soon as falcon flipped, Mac and Jack are just not even conceivable as possible baddies.MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Apr 18, 2025 6:03 pm Think past level 1 and imagine a world where Falcon and I are mafia IN THIS GAME.
How does both of our day 3 play make sense? Knowing what you know about how both of us play?
First and foremost I have zero need to bus him. And to do so in a blunt way where I've established no credibility decreases my wincon versus just continuing to vote MR. I can easily get MR over, maybe even Roxy if I want to flip to hard siding with MR. I could probably even get you over. But instead of any of those options I lazily vote out my wolf teammate? Cmon.
And then Falcon, the passive team member... decides to jump on me after ostensibly town LC votes me, putting me in danger of elimination too?
This makes zero sense as mafia agenda for me and you'd have to wilfully ignore everything you know about me to make argument to the contrary.
I have no interest in doing that.MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Apr 18, 2025 6:18 pm@Long Con I think your interest would make more sense to be in debating your alignment with gims than mine with me.
We should probably assume 3. Who was it that said it has to be 2 because if it were 3 we'd have already lost... or something? I think it might have been situationally based on the falcon elimination, like that many Wolves would have rallied and saved him, maybe? I don't think the logic was sound there.Master Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Apr 18, 2025 6:20 pmI think it's probably 3. Others have raised the idea of 2 so I'll acknowledge it as a possibility.MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Apr 18, 2025 6:18 pmDoes anything particularly rule out the 3 wolf world?
And/or in that world does LC/Jack not make sense either?
Could be LC, sure.
All I can say is it's nonsense. You're essentially saying i made my game harder by orders of magnitude just to explain the unlikely. That is quite literally your argument. "Mac could have done this so he did."Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Apr 18, 2025 9:45 pmIN THIS GAME you already have gims absolutely convinced that you are Town, as soon as falcon flipped, Mac and Jack are just not even conceivable as possible baddies.MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Apr 18, 2025 6:03 pm Think past level 1 and imagine a world where Falcon and I are mafia IN THIS GAME.
How does both of our day 3 play make sense? Knowing what you know about how both of us play?
First and foremost I have zero need to bus him. And to do so in a blunt way where I've established no credibility decreases my wincon versus just continuing to vote MR. I can easily get MR over, maybe even Roxy if I want to flip to hard siding with MR. I could probably even get you over. But instead of any of those options I lazily vote out my wolf teammate? Cmon.
And then Falcon, the passive team member... decides to jump on me after ostensibly town LC votes me, putting me in danger of elimination too?
This makes zero sense as mafia agenda for me and you'd have to wilfully ignore everything you know about me to make argument to the contrary.
See, the scenario I'm seeing is that you bussed your teammate at an opportune time, in an optimal way, and have achieved the standard desired credibility results one receives for this sacrifice... and yet, you're saying to my face that it makes zero sense.
This is some absolute Trumpian-level 1984 crap and I almost feel insulted that you would try to present it as terrible, inconceivable play to make while you literally are publicly reaping the rewards.
[VOTE: mac] aubergine
Tell me about the future of a Mac-Wolf 3-man team if Radishes were yeeted instead of falcon. Assume Radishes is Town for this exercise. Is it a slam dunk for a three-person Mafia team had we eliminated Town instead?MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 12:44 am It's not Trumpian. You have to ignore that I simply had no need to do it. I am if nothing else an efficient player. Especially as mafia. It is simply far far easier to win this game not doing what you-re accusing me of.
Yes i think we are either in LC + Jack or just Jack.Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 12:55 amTell me about the future of a Mac-Wolf 3-man team if Radishes were yeeted instead of falcon. Assume Radishes is Town for this exercise. Is it a slam dunk for a three-person Mafia team had we eliminated Town instead?MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 12:44 am It's not Trumpian. You have to ignore that I simply had no need to do it. I am if nothing else an efficient player. Especially as mafia. It is simply far far easier to win this game not doing what you-re accusing me of.
It depends somewhat on how the fallout of that MR lynch comes around. But there'd be three voices in the thread to direct opinion, which would probably be pretty strong.
Wait, no. I just looked. There are six players left. That would have been the final elimination of the game; Mafia would have reached parity after the nightkill. Or it's a 2-person Mafia team and falcon's teammate would a) not be so disposed to bus and b) be scrambling to get a handle on several future yeets as a solo baddie.
If it's a three-Wolf team then everyone who voted falcon must be Town, because a Town yeet would have resulted in Mafia victory.
If it's a two-Wolf team then bussing is possible but a harder road to travel, albeit with an advantage.
Again, I have had a few drinks. Is my assessment accurate or did I miss some key factors?
Ok but I'm disappointed because you treated the post like a presentation piece to the rest of the thread and not a conversation with Long Con. I asked a question at the end that is kind of important to the understanding of where we stand in this game and I want to know if I analyzed the situation correctly because I'm drunk and I may be way off-base, but you treated it like I was making a statement at my trial and you're addressing the jury.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 1:08 amI didn't say that post made you a wolf. I already had that opinion.
Okay then dismiss the idea.Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 3:49 am I won't yet dismiss the idea of Mac being mafia. And I don't think falcon's iso spews him as clear as he thinks it does or wants it to.
But he's not wrong that it'd be illogical for him to bus falcon there. He had all the room in the world to stick with voting me and at the very least create a tie. He could've just done his Mac thing of loudly and repeatedly flooding the thread with anti MR content and keeping momentum on me.
bruh imma be so frLong Con wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 1:15 amOk but I'm disappointed because you treated the post like a presentation piece to the rest of the thread and not a conversation with Long Con. I asked a question at the end that is kind of important to the understanding of where we stand in this game and I want to know if I analyzed the situation correctly because I'm drunk and I may be way off-base, but you treated it like I was making a statement at my trial and you're addressing the jury.MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 1:08 amI didn't say that post made you a wolf. I already had that opinion.![]()
You think Jack wouldn't play for the easier win, like you? How can he be a Wolf when he voted out falcon?MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 12:57 amYes i think we are either in LC + Jack or just Jack.Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 12:55 amTell me about the future of a Mac-Wolf 3-man team if Radishes were yeeted instead of falcon. Assume Radishes is Town for this exercise. Is it a slam dunk for a three-person Mafia team had we eliminated Town instead?MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 12:44 am It's not Trumpian. You have to ignore that I simply had no need to do it. I am if nothing else an efficient player. Especially as mafia. It is simply far far easier to win this game not doing what you-re accusing me of.
It depends somewhat on how the fallout of that MR lynch comes around. But there'd be three voices in the thread to direct opinion, which would probably be pretty strong.
Wait, no. I just looked. There are six players left. That would have been the final elimination of the game; Mafia would have reached parity after the nightkill. Or it's a 2-person Mafia team and falcon's teammate would a) not be so disposed to bus and b) be scrambling to get a handle on several future yeets as a solo baddie.
If it's a three-Wolf team then everyone who voted falcon must be Town, because a Town yeet would have resulted in Mafia victory.
If it's a two-Wolf team then bussing is possible but a harder road to travel, albeit with an advantage.
Again, I have had a few drinks. Is my assessment accurate or did I miss some key factors?
Same question, why would Jack vote falcon when keeping him alive gets the win?Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 9:35 am So like...yeah, LC can easily be with Falcon. It's no guarantee, but I'd be willing to vote there if gims insists. Still leaning towards Jack as more conventionally 'wolfy' though.
I'd have to go check the logs on how it all unfolded in real time, but perception is a funny thing when you're wolfing. It may not have seemed like 'if we just keep falcon alive we'll win' at the time. Votes change very last minute sometimes, and if it doesn't work perfectly (like they end up in a tie and lose the coinflip) they may worry they'd get 'caught out' openwolfing and end up slaughtered today instead. Safer to distance and try again the next phase.Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 9:47 amSame question, why would Jack vote falcon when keeping him alive gets the win?Master Radishes wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 9:35 am So like...yeah, LC can easily be with Falcon. It's no guarantee, but I'd be willing to vote there if gims insists. Still leaning towards Jack as more conventionally 'wolfy' though.
Or does one of these Jack suspecters KNOW its a two Wolf team?
We just have different solving styles and you have no experience with Mac, while I have played many games with him. He's perfectly capable of posting like Town when he's Wolf, so I don't focus on that as much.gims wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 11:10 am LC, who else is scum? you think its three, and one of them is mac. but other than the mac push, I don't see who you think the other one might be. I'm gonna have to have a proper worldview from you, or its hard to understand your posting as coming from an actual solvey mindset.
also it seems to me like your entire mac case revolves around bussing and not his actual posting. not sure what to make of that.
That's more or less the point I was making. In order to believe this, you have to believe that they screwed up by not getting back by EoD and changing their votes.gims wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 12:58 pm there's something silly going on if the game is jack and mac though
if its jack and mac and falcon, they have all avoided auto winning the game to cross vote and peace out on a partner. yes it could be a play, but it feels really counterintuitive to me that scum team would behave this way. unfortunately I have grown to also townread the people outside of that wagon, so I'm in a pickle where maybe *forgetting* was a thing. for instance, if they vote for master radishes, they win? because one townie at least would be voting them. like. you need ONE townie to vote with you, because town votes were scattered.
So your case is that I not only bussed Falcon but then to follow it up now decided to bury my other partner too?Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 11:40 amWe just have different solving styles and you have no experience with Mac, while I have played many games with him. He's perfectly capable of posting like Town when he's Wolf, so I don't focus on that as much.gims wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 11:10 am LC, who else is scum? you think its three, and one of them is mac. but other than the mac push, I don't see who you think the other one might be. I'm gonna have to have a proper worldview from you, or its hard to understand your posting as coming from an actual solvey mindset.
also it seems to me like your entire mac case revolves around bussing and not his actual posting. not sure what to make of that.
I think it's Mac and Jack. Neither were around for the falcon elimination, therefore none of the arguments about what would be optimal play from two experienced players are strong.
You do seem to be voting Jack right now, it's true. I'm willing to take it one step at a time. Instant double-bus is not realistic. [VOTE: jack] aubergineMacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 2:41 pmSo your case is that I not only bussed Falcon but then to follow it up now decided to bury my other partner too?Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 11:40 amWe just have different solving styles and you have no experience with Mac, while I have played many games with him. He's perfectly capable of posting like Town when he's Wolf, so I don't focus on that as much.gims wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 11:10 am LC, who else is scum? you think its three, and one of them is mac. but other than the mac push, I don't see who you think the other one might be. I'm gonna have to have a proper worldview from you, or its hard to understand your posting as coming from an actual solvey mindset.
also it seems to me like your entire mac case revolves around bussing and not his actual posting. not sure what to make of that.
I think it's Mac and Jack. Neither were around for the falcon elimination, therefore none of the arguments about what would be optimal play from two experienced players are strong.
I had a lot of control over the gamestate at ELO because I was the only player townreading radish, while kay and roxy wanted to kill him. I had many ways to make sure a townie would die instead of my partner, as that would lead to a scum win. I'd be p ashamed if I put my partner on a 4-2 at EOD instead of at least going 3-3 and forcing a flip, and that doesn't even count for the fact that I put radish himself at 3 votes so he could flip with mac after I asked him to vote mac. I was in a position where I could kill radish, mac and falcon by playing very normal mafia, and if we're dealing with a 3 player scumteam, that would be scum win. if im scum at that eod, scum wouldn't flip.
and thats the problem im having with your solve.
I've had this thought. I skimmed through his iso earlier today. Even if I tinfoil that he's pocketing me by deterring my elimination at every turn (which would be an unusual tactic considering my thread position but maybe he was just hoping to claim cred after my flip) I still see a very organic iso. I don't know how to explain it but he just seems to move from worldview to worldview we events unfold in a way that feels unnecessary as scum and genuine in a towny way.
Is it equally unlikely that any of the active voters at EoD are Wolf then?gims wrote: ↑Sat Apr 19, 2025 3:25 pmI had a lot of control over the gamestate at ELO because I was the only player townreading radish, while kay and roxy wanted to kill him. I had many ways to make sure a townie would die instead of my partner, as that would lead to a scum win. I'd be p ashamed if I put my partner on a 4-2 at EOD instead of at least going 3-3 and forcing a flip, and that doesn't even count for the fact that I put radish himself at 3 votes so he could flip with mac after I asked him to vote mac. I was in a position where I could kill radish, mac and falcon by playing very normal mafia, and if we're dealing with a 3 player scumteam, that would be scum win. if im scum at that eod, scum wouldn't flip.