The Syndicate

dunya wrote: ↑Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:17 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:04 pm General alert to all civilians of Greendale:

The need for a well-paced thread is obvious. So do your best on that front, please. More than that though, let's be aware from the start that urgency is paramount if we are to win this game. There are only 12 players here, and the cycles will be 24/24. This game will be completely over in a blink; we won't have a lot of time to solve it. There is no time to waste.

I know many of y'all are now in two games. Handle that as you see fit (I will not speak of the other active game again). Just please ensure this one gets a fair portion of your attention. Thanks!
calling it day 0, jay is scum. this was his obligatory post calling for a shit ton of activity because this is what civ jay is like, whereas he enjoys to let the game ride by slower when he's scum. his post was what we typically expect of a civ jjj, but it's all a mind game. he's using language that is more courteous and less urgent, which is in conflict with the message he's trying to convey there. fight me on that.

reads as pretty urgent to me. nah.

dunya wrote: ↑Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:35 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:30 pm dunya, read on sabie please
i was leaning town, but i didn't like how she ignored all the praise she got from you until you asked her for her opinion on it. riding it out without seeming eager? she addressed me several times, and even quoted juliets and epi, but avoided you almost deliberately. it doesn't sit right with me.

what would civilian sabie have to say about 3j's hot take read?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:26 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:24 am Numbers consciousness starting platform:

With 12 players to start and the setup closed, there are numerous potential alignment ratios:

A - 9 vs. 3
B - 9 vs. 2 vs./plus 1
C - 8 vs. 2 vs./plus 1 vs./plus 1
D - 8 vs. 3 vs./plus 1

There are other possibilities, but I think these are the four likely by a wide margin. Based on my own intuitions about balance (some of which I think Sloonei would share given his similar background), I'd rank them as follows by probability: B > A > C > D. This is a theme which lends itself nicely to independents, but that may not matter with the characters and alignments randomized (i.e. Chang isn't automatically a serial killer or something).

Either 9 vs. 3 or 8 vs. 2 allows two mislynches before a MyLo (assuming nightly kills of one civilian and not accounting for unknown indy variables). 9 vs. 2 allows 3 mislynches. For now I recommend a worst-case projection of 2 available mislyches. As such, POE work has to be quite expedient in this game to have a chance of working effectively. A pool of 4 or 5 is already necessary on Day 0, and that means the civilians need to make themselves visible. "Cards close to chest" and "exclusively roleplay in every post without regard for the hunt" are thus strategies which can lose the game on their own if employed irresponsibly -- that'll place people into POE pools by default.

Role abilities will likely matter at some point, but I refuse to wait for that. Everyone is vanilla. Find the bad guys, or find so many good guys that you don't need to.
Literally nobody cares about any of this Day 0. Literally nobody.

Except you. And you are literally nobody.

epignosis is a civilian.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:55 am Y'all please tell me about dunya.

i have nothing to say about dunya

which actually means that i don't think anything she has said thus far is reflective of her alignment.

ok bye

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:26 pm
dunya wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:17 pm please talk to me about Quin, JJJ.
He seemed to be headed toward some kind of read on you (with arguably implied suspicion) when he contested your initial read on me and questioned your rationale about sabie. So I'm underwhelmed that he ended up here:

Quin wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:59 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:55 am Y'all please tell me about dunya.
i have nothing to say about dunya

which actually means that i don't think anything she has said thus far is reflective of her alignment.

I disagreed with a read and asked her a question. Neither of those things need to be associated with a read of any kind.

Not great to hear something so contradictory from you, mister interrogator.

dunya wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:28 am no one asked me, but ima go ahead and tell you why i think mac is mafia.

he comes in here to demotivate jjj. he has an issue with jjj taking the leader role. he's vocalizing it to make others aware of these issues he has with jjj. he is trying to renounce jjj's place in the thread. ok...

but then nah, he doesn't wanna take jjj's place after all. he's happy being led. he's happy jjj being himself.

there was no purpose for the former or the latter. when someone comes in strong and then contradicts everything said, it is always a plot to weaken or cause conflict or shake trust in a person. macdougall here was initially trying to take civ jjj off course, and whether he continued or not, the posts are there. they have already garnered agreement from at least 2 other people. there is purpose behind every post, especially one that criticizes another player's playing style, and especially when macdougall is no newbie to jjj or his playstyle. it gets old ya know. the pocketing approach may have worked in ass-class, but it wouldn't work in any game i'm in.

Epi wasn't behaving much differently to Mac. Why is he a town read?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 7:57 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 7:53 pmI disagreed with a read and asked her a question. Neither of those things need to be associated with a read of any kind.
Your tone, particularly in the first post, was dismissive enough as to seem incredulous. Incredulity sometimes implies suspicion.

Quin wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 7:53 pmNot great to hear something so contradictory from you, mister interrogator.
This looks extremely fake. "something so contradictory" -- dean't give me that

you are literally the king of asking a million questions for the purpose of asking questions

DEAN'T GIVE ME THAT

so 3j is bad

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:03 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:01 pmyou are literally the king of asking a million questions for the purpose of asking questions

DEAN'T GIVE ME THAT

Quin wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:02 pmso 3j is bad
Now you're doubling dean on dumb things.

i dont know what this means but im gonna go write a thesis real quick and then ill lynch you after that

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:31 am
Quin wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:04 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:03 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:01 pmyou are literally the king of asking a million questions for the purpose of asking questions

DEAN'T GIVE ME THAT

Quin wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:02 pmso 3j is bad
Now you're doubling dean on dumb things.
i dont know what this means but im gonna go write a thesis real quick and then ill lynch you after that
I'll explain what I meant now. You told me I said "something so contradictory", which I view as ludicrous hyperbole at best (I don't know what the contradiction even is, let alone why it's so contradictory). I dismissed it as nonsense straightaway, and you responded by drawing a contextually irrelevant parallel to my questioning nature and called me bad. You doubled down on an assertion I find too basic to be taken seriously -- I have doubts that you believe it.

You called me bad because I gave an opinion and asked a question and didn't come out of that with a read on the person I was talking to (which actually isn't true to begin with - read the post). You may as well have said you suspected me for talking.

Maybe 'contradiction' was the wrong word. The point was it's a dumb thing to say on your part because not every exchange is *going* to end in a read and the King of Fuck Mountain who has a 2 page long conversation with every living player every day phase should know that better than anybody.

I haven't watched Community, but I'm gonna guess Dean is a vegetarian because this beef is fake as hell.

DFaraday wrote: ↑Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:45 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:41 am
Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:38 am Quin is good, unlike the announcements.

I'd rather hear your take on two-bit DF.
I agree with his general sentiment that an isolated "call out" of my mechanics post is a suspicious thing. I direct that at DDL primarily.

DF directed it at nobody and didn't answer me when I asked him to gimme names, so that's bad. I feel no compulsion to call him a civilian.
Sorry for being at work?

I was referring to Epi and Mac, but more so Epi since Mac didn't actually imply that the charting meant that JJJ was bad. These posts from Epi show him suggesting that JJJ's efforts were a Mafia smokescreen:

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:30 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:27 am
Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:26 amLiterally nobody cares about any of this Day 0. Literally nobody.
That's why civilians lose.
Civilians don't lose because nobody paid attention to chart. You are doing work to do work.

You know what I do when I'm bad? I count on my fingers how many civilians I need to knock off to win. That's a mafia chart.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:32 am Jay is more concerned with the setup than with who is bad. I have solved this thing for you.
If Epi can offer evidence that JJJ primarily does this sort of analysis as a baddie but not as a civ I'll reconsider, but as it is I don't buy his reasoning here.

I thought that Epi was doing it as a way to gauge 3J's alignment. No idea about Mac though.

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:16 am I still feel good about Quin. I'm gleaming genu-quin in his spitfire.

ok but can you actually respond to some of that spitfire ty

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:41 am
Quin wrote: ↑Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:43 amYou called me bad because I gave an opinion and asked a question and didn't come out of that with a read on the person I was talking to (which actually isn't true to begin with - read the post). You may as well have said you suspected me for talking.

Maybe 'contradiction' was the wrong word. The point was it's a dumb thing to say on your part because not every exchange is *going* to end in a read and the King of Fuck Mountain who has a 2 page long conversation with every living player every day phase should know that better than anybody.

I haven't watched Community, but I'm gonna guess Dean is a vegetarian because this beef is fake as hell.
Every exchange I have does end in a read. I don’t know why you keep drawing comparisons to me; I am irrelevant. I reviewed your initial few posts and took an immediate stance on a rainbow. Then when dunya asked I explained one grievance. You responded with loud, ridiculous language. That is what I’ve taken issue with since. You’re not properly representing the beef as you criticize it.

You aren't irrelevant because this isn't a defence. I'm calling you out because your suspicion is founded on what I perceive to be a fundamental part of playing mafia. I straight up don't believe that you are successful in forming a read on someone every time you talk to someone. That's not even to mention that dunya didn't even respond to my posts at the time.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:56 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:54 pmI straight up don't believe that you are successful in forming a read on someone every time you talk to someone.
I will make a read on any player that has made one post.

GTH's and PoE's don't count.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:23 pm People, votes are changeable. At this stage, there is no reason not to have a vote on the board right now. Awhora

ok boss

[VOTE: DFaraday] aubergine

ya ill come back in the morning

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:35 am
Quin wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:29 am
Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:23 pm People, votes are changeable. At this stage, there is no reason not to have a vote on the board right now. Awhora
ok boss

[VOTE: DFaraday] aubergine
why?

I wanted to put DF as far in the lead as I possibly could to see how people on the four or five single-vote wagons that existed at the time would respond to it. Which kinda didn't work considering everyone but me was asleep at the time

So it wasn't because I suspected him.

I'm gonna read and find a better place for my vote. Feeling really unwell today so I'll probably just be in and out.

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:32 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:27 pm
dunya wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:20 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:14 pm I want to lynch novaselinenever. I'm still in class, so talk about that while I am indisposed.
i'm not feeling it. why do you want to lynch him over anyone else?
~ The current thread environment feels like irrational paranoia is overtaking sense

~ I think the game is moving fast enough to make a quiet mafioso pretty likely

~ Recent meta makes him more suspicious to me than the other quiets
i disagree. i feel like the mac lynch has to happen. i'm am not convinced by anything he's said that makes me want to move my ass off him so why should i? i don't feel like any "irrational paranoia" is happening.

do you consider mac a very vocal player before this bandwagon formed on him? cos i don't see it that way at all. i saw minimal effort and a lack of engagement to posts directed towards him which were brushed off in a deflective manner.

dunno what his recent meta is. can't comment.

Sounds like you're in a tunnel.

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:08 pm your defence of jay was white-knighting it. i felt like a violin was playing in the background. i felt like trump was giving a speech about inequality.

it just felt. exaggerated.

i didn't think reywas' post warranted all that, especially since jay himself agreed with the points reywas made.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:33 pm How to be town but suck at it by Dunya and Colin

colin is a civilian question mark

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 7:51 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:22 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:32 am
colonialbob wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:14 amBig if true
How do you feel about anything in the thread up to me calling you a mafioso?
I feel like I don't have enough time to sort all of the Mac/jjj/epi stuff out right now except I doubt epi/Mac w/w.
I doubt that this is a genuine post from a civilian. I can't see how he arrived to the conclusion at the end at all really.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:48 pm
sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 25, 2019 9:18 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:55 pm sabie12, any impressions of dunya, Epi, or myself (or anyone else that may have shimmied in a post)?
Maaaaaan I don't know my brain hurts I didn't know there was a quiz on the first day. Wait it's the zero day...or is it zeroth day?
This is a mild ping but also might just be a result of her role-playing rather than her normal posting style. Usually I would expect a lot of waffly stuff (not in a bad way) but this is short and doesn't mention anything about any of those players.

I would encourage sabie12 to do a little more talking about specific people (while keeping up the good RP )
I don't think this is a genuine post either. This is busywork.

i was like 'hey i'm gonna educate myself on this whole mac thing' so i iso'd him and now i want to vote for bob

[VOTE: colonialbob] aubergine

mac, why do you think I'm good?

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:48 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:42 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 7:51 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:22 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:32 am
colonialbob wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:14 amBig if true
How do you feel about anything in the thread up to me calling you a mafioso?
I feel like I don't have enough time to sort all of the Mac/jjj/epi stuff out right now except I doubt epi/Mac w/w.
I doubt that this is a genuine post from a civilian. I can't see how he arrived to the conclusion at the end at all really.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 1:48 pm
sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 25, 2019 9:18 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:55 pm sabie12, any impressions of dunya, Epi, or myself (or anyone else that may have shimmied in a post)?
Maaaaaan I don't know my brain hurts I didn't know there was a quiz on the first day. Wait it's the zero day...or is it zeroth day?
This is a mild ping but also might just be a result of her role-playing rather than her normal posting style. Usually I would expect a lot of waffly stuff (not in a bad way) but this is short and doesn't mention anything about any of those players.

I would encourage sabie12 to do a little more talking about specific people (while keeping up the good RP )
I don't think this is a genuine post either. This is busywork.
i was like 'hey i'm gonna educate myself on this whole mac thing' so i iso'd him and now i want to vote for bob

[VOTE: colonialbob] aubergine

yo

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:50 pm I don't know how to feel about this Dunya vote on me

this is the most vegatarian post i've even seen

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:51 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:35 pm
dunya wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:08 pm your defence of jay was white-knighting it. i felt like a violin was playing in the background. i felt like trump was giving a speech about inequality.

it just felt. exaggerated.

i didn't think reywas' post warranted all that, especially since jay himself agreed with the points reywas made.

What's up?

your defence of 3J had no SOUL.

im gonna go back to bed for a bit. i'll be back for eod.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:07 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:55 pm
novaselinenever wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:51 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:35 pm
dunya wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:08 pm your defence of jay was white-knighting it. i felt like a violin was playing in the background. i felt like trump was giving a speech about inequality.

it just felt. exaggerated.

i didn't think reywas' post warranted all that, especially since jay himself agreed with the points reywas made.

What's up?
your defence of 3J had no SOUL.
Is that all you have to say?

..yes?

I agree with a couple of things Mac has said about bob, namely busywork. So that's what I'm voting him for.

I've got a splitting headache and don't really want to be in front of a screen right now, so unless anyone's got questions I'm just gonna wait out EoD.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:45 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:30 pm
novaselinenever wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:07 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:55 pm
novaselinenever wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:51 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:35 pm
dunya wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:08 pm your defence of jay was white-knighting it. i felt like a violin was playing in the background. i felt like trump was giving a speech about inequality.

it just felt. exaggerated.

i didn't think reywas' post warranted all that, especially since jay himself agreed with the points reywas made.

What's up?
your defence of 3J had no SOUL.
Is that all you have to say?
..yes?
Could you expand on it perhaps? It got soul all right.

It was empty. Disingenuous. A defence for the sake of a defence. I don't care about what 3J said about it because you said it on catch-up, but I don't believe you really meant what you were saying.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:42 am nova doesn't seem like he gives a shit about any accusation flung in his direction.

More like he just wants them to go away on their own.

That's to say nothing of when he was focussed entirely on dunya's vote on him with 20 minutes left in Day 1 while saying nothing about either bob or Mac.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:34 pm
dunya wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:49 pm i also don't understand why mac thinks cbob is hiding in my cleavage when i never stopped throwing shade and suspecting cbob. i've been questioning his tone all game.

and to answer your question, jay, i'm really unsure how far macdougall would go with the wiofm and bussing cbob so hard right now. but i distinctly remember how i felt the cbob post in his iso prior to the bandwagon on him, feeling very team-mate distancy by how soft his accusations were at the time and the fact he only did a case on cbob and then didn't even follow up on it or do anything with it, chasing df instead. felt fake.
This post.

This post would be bad in a vaccum but ultimately forgivable. The problem is what happens afterwards.

She wants people to know she is throwing shade at bob.

But this is her last mention of Bob until the last 30 seconds when she finally votes him. Between the two things, she spends the entire EoD trying to get anyone but Bob lynched. Anyone. Whatever it takes. She switches around, listens to other people when they talk about Mac and nova, but refuses to acknowledge bob's existance except for that small time interval where bob decides to antagonize her out of nowhere.

Never mind that mac's point is not an attack against dunya, it's just that dunya is being pocketed by Bob. This means she did not understand Bob's point. The fact she feels the need to defend against a possible w/w accusation that doesn't exist because she did not understand a post could suggest a baddie who is paranoid about not being associated to teammates.

The nerdy girl is up to no good. She appears adorable but I think I saw her cheating at the exam.

I'll take some time to go through it properly, but to me it just seems like DDL is accusing dunya for responding to an accusation. If she went on and on about it, there'd be a point to make here, but at face value it's overdramatised and not a good look for DDL.

I'm here.

Quin wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:22 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:34 pm
dunya wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:49 pm i also don't understand why mac thinks cbob is hiding in my cleavage when i never stopped throwing shade and suspecting cbob. i've been questioning his tone all game.

and to answer your question, jay, i'm really unsure how far macdougall would go with the wiofm and bussing cbob so hard right now. but i distinctly remember how i felt the cbob post in his iso prior to the bandwagon on him, feeling very team-mate distancy by how soft his accusations were at the time and the fact he only did a case on cbob and then didn't even follow up on it or do anything with it, chasing df instead. felt fake.
This post.

This post would be bad in a vaccum but ultimately forgivable. The problem is what happens afterwards.

She wants people to know she is throwing shade at bob.

But this is her last mention of Bob until the last 30 seconds when she finally votes him. Between the two things, she spends the entire EoD trying to get anyone but Bob lynched. Anyone. Whatever it takes. She switches around, listens to other people when they talk about Mac and nova, but refuses to acknowledge bob's existance except for that small time interval where bob decides to antagonize her out of nowhere.

Never mind that mac's point is not an attack against dunya, it's just that dunya is being pocketed by Bob. This means she did not understand Bob's point. The fact she feels the need to defend against a possible w/w accusation that doesn't exist because she did not understand a post could suggest a baddie who is paranoid about not being associated to teammates.

The nerdy girl is up to no good. She appears adorable but I think I saw her cheating at the exam.
I'll take some time to go through it properly, but to me it just seems like DDL is accusing dunya for responding to an accusation. If she went on and on about it, there'd be a point to make here, but at face value it's overdramatised and not a good look for DDL.

I read dunya's Night 1 posts. This is not a thing that is happening as DDL describes it.

Why I think x is a civilian:

Colin: Voted for bob.
DF: Info claimed, we went down the same train of thought thinking about how epi and mac approached 3J on Day 1.
DDL: Voted dunya Day 1, so his Night 1 posts against her didn't come out of nowhere as I initially thought.
Epignosis: I believe he went after 3J's Day 1 mechanical breakdown as a way of gauging his alignment.
3J: Made the clincher vote for bob.
Mac: He was anti-bob pretty much all the way, his posts were the reason I voted for him.
nova: consistently providing insights of some kind whenever he's in the thread
reywas: He has a higher probability of being a civilian than being mafia
sabie: She has a higher probability of being a civilian than being mafia

A poe from that would be:

Mac
3J
Epi
df
colin

nova
ddl
reywas
sabie

General thread consensus - do we believe cbob would be the "predominant" lynch wagon today if he weren't lynched on Day 1?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:46 am
Quin wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:44 am General thread consensus - do we believe cbob would be the "predominant" lynch wagon today if he weren't lynched on Day 1?
Who knows. I'm not sure there would be a predominant wagon right now presuming Mac is lynched instead and flips civilian. The thread is likely more chaotic, and people are throwing shit out there about a pile of players (bob would be one of them).

For a single word answer: no

If the answer is no, I think it's a point in your favour. Baddie 3J would be more likely to bus bob at the last second if he doesn't anticipate him surviving the next day than if he did.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:50 am Jay being Mafia is worthy of zero consideration.

woah all the leading wagons are in my poe

i truly am being spoiled this birthday of mine

ima read up on ddl, rey and sabie.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:06 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:24 am Numbers consciousness starting platform:

With 12 players to start and the setup closed, there are numerous potential alignment ratios:

A - 9 vs. 3
B - 9 vs. 2 vs./plus 1
C - 8 vs. 2 vs./plus 1 vs./plus 1
D - 8 vs. 3 vs./plus 1

There are other possibilities, but I think these are the four likely by a wide margin. Based on my own intuitions about balance (some of which I think Sloonei would share given his similar background), I'd rank them as follows by probability: B > A > C > D. This is a theme which lends itself nicely to independents, but that may not matter with the characters and alignments randomized (i.e. Chang isn't automatically a serial killer or something).

Either 9 vs. 3 or 8 vs. 2 allows two mislynches before a MyLo (assuming nightly kills of one civilian and not accounting for unknown indy variables). 9 vs. 2 allows 3 mislynches. For now I recommend a worst-case projection of 2 available mislyches. As such, POE work has to be quite expedient in this game to have a chance of working effectively. A pool of 4 or 5 is already necessary on Day 0, and that means the civilians need to make themselves visible. "Cards close to chest" and "exclusively roleplay in every post without regard for the hunt" are thus strategies which can lose the game on their own if employed irresponsibly -- that'll place people into POE pools by default.

Role abilities will likely matter at some point, but I refuse to wait for that. Everyone is vanilla. Find the bad guys, or find so many good guys that you don't need to.
You know what this reminds me of? That big role list I made in a World Asunder.

I was bad.

I've seen Jay make this kind of post a hundred times. It's not alignment indicative. Bleh.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:23 am Actually Mac got called bad after Reywas made that post but that doesn't help either

Looks like he's putting in the effort to go through the thread and fact check things, which is nice to see.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:45 pm I'm getting a civ vibe from Mac. Though I've been wrong about that civ vibe before.

Fence sitting. He does explicitly say he "hates the Mac lynch" 20 minutes later. Would be worth seeing if anything happened during that time to see if DDL was being opportunistic.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 11:59 am Ok trusfall thingy.

- Epi: made some nice posts day 1 where he is inquiring people, missed a chance to save his teammate
- Jay: flip-flopped at EoD the way I'm used to see him to. Made a decisive vote
- Mac: literally the civ MVP so far, while also being the alternative to the scum wagon.
- Colin turned the Bob vote into a Bob wagon.
- nova: lots of his reads look genuine, and I feel like I gotta defend him since he's in twice as many games as anyone here is.
- Reywas: there was a post on day 1 people said looked super genuine and I agreed
- DF: made a weird game mechanics post which I guess could be risky for mafia.
- sabie: after her burst of roleplaying she came back to her usual post style which so far have been civ when I player with her.
- Quin: his playstyle so far looks like genuQuin and I'm generally good at spoting when hes not. Also made a critical vote day 1.

The suspicion on him aside, this was completely unprompted. It's a nice little tick on his report card.

DDL's beefs with dunya went across most of the day and into the night. I don't think he was seizing some opportunity to get into an argument with her at the end of Night 1 and kill her for civ cred. I think he was genuine in his suspicion of dunya. I come out of this read struggling to see bad DDL.

Reywas doesn't have a lot of meat. I have nothing to add to his 3J faking civviness read or his vote for bob for the sake of chaos. Those are probably the two biggest things he's contributed.

He does have this sequence of posts though:

reywaS wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:35 pm im not paying attention to anything before this post. Who should i vote for and why? I will not read back so if you want my vote to go somewhere, hit me up. Ive had a hell of a week and im drinking stuff. lets do this.

reywaS wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:36 pm why my boy epig getting all these votes?

What was he going to do if nobody made a case to him? It just seems like an easy way to get through the day without prickling hairs.

Him asking about Epi stands out. It infers he town reads him, which he does judging by this post:

reywaS wrote: ↑Mon Feb 25, 2019 10:13 pm Epig, will you be my friend?

But I have no idea why he feels the way he does.

I have even less to say about sabie. I can't really pick out any particular post to look at, I'd rather talk about her posts as a whole. She reminds me a little bit of nutella, her posts all come across as a stream-of-consciousness kind of thing, but a much more conversational way. I don't think she's shying away from anything (maybe dunya's question before she died, if anything) and she's wearing her heart on her sleeve.

This is my first time playing with her that I'm aware of, so I can't actually compare it between games unless I actually went and looked. Sabie just makes me feel good inside.

That said, from the current poll I'd rather [VOTE: reywas] aubergine than DDL.

I'm comfortable with a reywas vote. Next choice would be sabie. I wouldn't vote for DDL today.

nova would complete my PoE, but I don't have the time to read and sort him.

Don't panic.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:16 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:14 pmDon't panic.
I patiently await your wisdom, Quin.

In class right now, I might go into it later on in the phase.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:20 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:18 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:16 pm
Quin wrote: ↑Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:14 pmDon't panic.
I patiently await your wisdom, Quin.
In class right now, I might go into it later on in the phase.
I'm panicking.

I lost my vest last night. Hence the no kill.

Leaving for uni in a few minutes, but I should have time to check in again just before EoD between classes. Finished with class for the week after today so I'll have more time for this. Sorry.

Gonna stick with my PoE. [VOTE: leetic] aubergine

I have a bit more time for this now that I'm finished with classes for the week. I'll get some ISO's out sometime today.

Colin has precedence to support him saying he doesn't like vig roles. I don't find it hard to believe that he's an unwilling vig in this case.

nova is the last person in my PoE. Whatever digging I do today will start there.

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