The Syndicate

Scotty wrote:Grr I just did a whole analysis post about Hedgeowl and it got deleted. I'm too tired to do it again.
It's ok though, because here's the short gist of her:
-She has only 37 posts, which is quite minimal for someone still [actively] playing the game.
-but she has been constantly "catching up". I legit feel her frustration of continually having to comb through 10 pages every day for the past few gamedays, and how she's felt absent.
-She has voted not terribly so far. She did miss Day 2 vote, even though she was around and could have voted. I don't think it's that suspicious, since she picked it back up every day thereafter (except for the Tiny night). She missed a few night polls as well, so this also seems like a genuine busy-ness. Her vote off the G-man lynch felt justified with her self-proclaimed ideology of players bandwagoning only if they has a reason.
-I feel like she reads as a backdoor civ- she hasn't shared a lot of original suspicions, but also doesn't always go with the crowd on voting.

Hedge, I hope as the thread gets lighter that you come around more.
Can you give me 3 people you might suspect right now and maybe a little bit why?

S~V~S wrote:I can't imagine the circumstances that would allow for a rational punctuation fetish, but I will concede that almost anything is possible.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:looking into nutella

any points i make may well be rehashes of old discussions or miss important context. i don't know, but i think it's best if i don't worry about that. if it happens, yell at me.

Spoiler: show

nutella wrote:I don't get the Hedgeowl suspicion at all. She posted while catching up and gave her input on a couple main discussions. None of her posts look particularly bad to me, just kind of average minimal-but-sufficient participation. I guess I understood LC's point (though it was regarding SVS) about commenting on issues rather than players, but Hedgie gave her views on LC/Epi/SVS so that doesn't really apply. I don't know, she could be hiding behind that type of participation (I haven't played many games with her but isn't it kind of her norm?) but I just don't really see the reasons for suspecting her, they seem contrived.

I could see SVS as bad. I mean, SVS is always bad

this post is somewhat troubling for covering so much ground within a single read of one player, especially on Day 1. nutella feels strongly enough about her defense of Hedgeowl that she is willing to use such strong language as "I don't get the suspicion at all", but is also willing to semi-explore the theories proposed against her. it's a stronger defense than one might expect to encounter so early, and it contains at least one caveat (highlighted in yellow) to shake the post on its own foundation.

Spoiler: show

nutella wrote:...I just stated some.
For the most part though it is too early for me to form reads unless something crazy happens. As for LC and Epi, idk I think they're their usual zany selves, could be any alignment.

Sloonei prompted nutella for reads on Day 1 and this was one immediate response. i am not a big fan of it because the names she mentions are accompanied by non-reads. i don't know why she even bothered to mention LC or Epi 1.0 in this post, because her reads on them seem to mesh with her reads on everyone else as she put it herself (bolded, highlighted). this is additionally problematic given the Mafia-2 flip by LC.

Spoiler: show

nutella wrote:I am kind of lost as to where to go this day 1. I haven't really caught on to any of the popular suspicions. I'm at work and won't really have time to re-read stuff so I hope something comes up as I catch up that will give me some direction, but I usually feel hopelessly uncertain about everyone on day 1 :\

those of you who've played with her before: is it typical for nutella to be so timid about providing reads on players on Day 1? she was really struggling at various points to take any stances.\

Spoiler: show

nutella wrote:I'm getting a weird vibe from LC and I can't really put my finger on it. It's like he doesn't seem LCish to me. But maybe that's because I haven't really played with him in a while (not counting Pilate which was decidedly not his usual style) and I may be projecting misremembered conceptions of his style, or maybe it's because he's been busy IRL, idk there's just been something nagging at the back of my head about all his posts so far that just feels not quite right. Obviously he's particularly on the defensive right now so maybe I am reading too much into how he's acting under pressure.

Nice sandwich truck! Needs some avocado though.


@Scotty what evidence do you see that there could be two kills? We don't seem to know anything about the roles or the baddie teams really, unless I'm missing something... Typically when there are two teams they kill on alternate nights (I guess you're new to the site and might not have realized that). Though it certainly could be the case that two or more roles/teams kill on the same night. There could be a civ ninja or an indie SK.


Btw I am voting to read the book.

it's important to note here that nutella started voicing some uneasiness about LC on Night 1, after having asserted he seemed like his usual self earlier on Day 1. this is a strange change of tune, and it's not ideal having followed the Day 1 lynch in which LC narrowly avoided being lynched (thanks in part to nutella's late vote going to Cobalt). so nutella waited until LC was safe from lynching to express this concern about him, and it's the first such comment she made about him in the game that i can see. that's a pretty bad look.

Spoiler: show

nutella wrote:My thoughts on Epi getting NKed: Usually when a nightkill target during the first couple nights of the game is someone who has been strongly pushing suspicion against someone else, I tend to think it is the baddies' attempt to frame the suspected party. (Can get complicated and WIFOMy though, like if the suspected party really is on the offending team and thinks "nobody will think I actually targeted the person who pushed for my lynch, they'll think it was a frameup" -- that's possible, and maybe this frameup would be too easy) but I'm inclined to think it could be an attempt to frame LC. Which just makes me all the more suspicious of Cobalt for today.

uh oh. this post is pretty suspicious too, especially since it's come to light that LC was indeed mafia and took part in killing Epi 1.0. this was proven not to be a frame job, and so that nutella provided this theory that it was a framejob, unprompted as far as i can tell, just appears inorganic. it's okay to be wrong about some things as a townie, but usually that wrongness occurs in a perspective espoused during a relevant thread discussion. this wrong thing came from the void, protected LC, and placed the crosshairs on the ever-suspected Cobalt instead. soon after nutella had expressed uneasiness about LC too on Night 1.

Spoiler: show

nutella wrote:Lol just saw Cobalt laughing off the attempt to frame *him*. Funny joke, you must have enjoyed planning it!

nutella wrote:Sorry for posting so many times in a row, and for being so rambly, but my thoughts are going a mile a minute. But I guess I could see it either way. Epi was really gunning hard for Cobalt too by the end of the day, so maybe it was more of a Cobalt frame. Maybe LC and Cobalt are trying to frame each other. Or even better, they're both bad, maybe they're teammates after all and Cobalt's trying to pull a daredevil distancing strategy.

nutella's takes on Cobalt and LC are pretty contradictory during this period of her post history. she seemed to notice that and ended up with these "maybe they're both bad" comments accompanied by vague assertions of simultaneous framing -- or even cooperative framing.

Spoiler: show

Neverwhere wrote:I think the Tiny pattern thing you mentioned above was brought up because people thought that it was odd she would keep mentioning it over and over and that it could eb the case she's just trying too hard to be careful and mimic every other game she has played. I thnik there could be something to this theory, and I have my eye on her but I would like to observe her for a little longer. She is also a very low poster so I haven't read much from her.

I had considered Cobalt for my vote last time round, and I think he's my top suspect for todays lynch. I get really scummy vibes off him. I am a little worried about the things he has insiunated about his role, but I also think those could indicate that he is mafia.

Golden is someone I want to keep a closer eye on. I couldn't give you specifics at this moment in time (hence wanting to scrutinise further) but I've always played with civvie Golden and feel like there's something slightly different this game.

i never like theories about mafia team mates before even one of them has been confirmed as mafia. these ideas have higher manipulative potential than the mean, and now we can look back on this one with narrowed eyes because of Bubbles' town flip. nutella saw fit to link the two of them together (albeit on the strength of theories brought forth by others -- she gave them credit and hopped aboard). this supposed link may have been a big part of what led to Bubbles' eventual lynch. is that correct? if so, it was clearly an erroneous strategic course and i think it's valid to view nutella with suspicion for it now.

Spoiler: show

nutella wrote:

Turnip Head wrote: I'm thinking of voting for Hedgeowl, or maybe for nutella because she completely ignored my thoughts on her 0_0

What thoughts did you want me to address? I saw you bring my name up but I didn't think you were addressing anything to me.


Curious developments regarding Bass and Epi2. Wonder what made BR so certain about Bass.

minor point perhaps, but i don't know why Turnip would say nutella's name without meaning to address her in some capacity. so this is a strange comment.

Spoiler: show

nutella wrote:I hope G-man is actually going to stop posting all those images. It's annoying as hell. I don't care if you lost a bet or whatever. You're not being a helpful participant.

Canucklehead wrote:Is the case on Tiny Bubbles contingent on LC also being bad? Or is there a case for bad TB with a civ LC?

This tbh. I suspect LC a little bit more than Bubbles, and if LC ends up bad I'd look at her as a possible teammate, but I don't see any independent reason to suspect her.

And yeah I don't understand the thing with BR's post. I don't get how it happened but I don't get how it makes her suspicious either.

continued promotion of the erroneous Bubbles/LC link.

Spoiler: show

nutella wrote:If only anyone actually read my posts I did in fact discuss my PM when they were being discussed at first, and that it involved protection and a role check and yes it does seem to be the same as Niju's.


I do suspect sig, am going to more carefully re-read sloonei's case to confirm that I agree and then I might switch my vote (doesn't look like Bass is that likely of a candidate at this point)

i think the stronger case to be made against nutella so far is to link her to LC and Mafia-2. this post can be seen through that lens i think. sig was lynched in a landslide vote and flipped Mafia-1. if nutella is a member of Mafia-2 then she had no way of knowing for sure (unless i am missing a significant detail) that sig was not a civilian. so she placed a very late vote and kind of shoved the responsibility for the case to Sloonei instead of shouldering it herself. it's a less meaningful point because it's more speculative, but it's something to think about.

Spoiler: show

nutella wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Oh nutella! I forgot to ask. Since you feel like talking about Long Con, what is your read on him? Would you consider a lynch of him today?

Yes, I kind of thought I said this in my post...? There's been a consistent trend of people not reading what I post
I said I'd be happy to lynch either LC or Gman, I think they are both likely to be bad. Particularly regarding LC, to answer your question in a bit more detail: I've found his posts as a whole rather odd the entire game, and I think he is playing a very baddie style. I've gone back and forth with uncertainty a couple times, for instance after night 1 when I thought he might have been framed. But at this point I really think he is more likely bad than not.

i give nutella credit for holding true to her story with admirable precision on Day 4 regarding her reads on LC. she's kind of been all over the place with him throughout her post history with the most recurring theme being calling him suspicious but always placing someone else a notch above him on the priority list. that's not a great trend, but it's possible for it to be genuine and i think it's a decent reflection that she was consistent in this case.

Spoiler: show

nutella wrote:

Bass_the_Clever wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:Who are your suspects today Bass?

My top suspect is still cobalt. When I was doing my six page catch up I got a bad vibe from LC when he switched his vote after saying he wasnt going to be around. Today LC is starting to read more normal to me, so I have him in a gray area. The problem i'm having is trying to remember what mafia LC looks like. I know he was Indy in RR but I think the only game I have seen him be bad in was my first mafia game ever Supernatural Mafia on Rev. I got a slight ping from DF when he made the comment about me not saying anything because I think this is the most I have ever posted in a game this early. I felt like he is skipping over stuff and I tend to think baddies skim and skip stuff because they arent really worried about catching any mafia.

There are a lot of people who I would like to hear more from when they get caught up.

This is the post I found most suspicious. It really sounded like you were waffling on LC and trying to justify not suspecting him while looking like you were also trying to reconsider your position on him to go along with the thread. If LC is bad this totally looks teammate-y. Even if he isn't, this really looks like a baddie style of trying to blend in and giving some thoughts that look original. And (I think BR pointed this out too) those last couple sentences are really really vague and sound like you're trying too hard to look civvie.


I know it's really not the strongest case, and that's because it's largely a gut feeling, which I know you can't really defend against but I do hope to see you participate more and give actual input. Because so far you've given me the impression of a baddie trying to blend in.


linki: It certainly doesn't seem like you've been posting much. I just looked and you have more posts in thread than I thought, but that is not necessarily a good sign. Quality over quantity. Maybe you're making little posts here and there but you've barely contributed anything.

i'm not a fan of this one. she was critical of Bass for "waffling" about LC, but i don't think he was really waffling very much -- at least not in that post. nutella has waffled quite a lot about LC herself throughout her post history. and if LC is finally going to be lynched (as he was on Day 4), it's of course important for his team mates to set up non Mafia-2-aligned players to look bad. i think nutella could be accused of smearing Bass pre-emptively and unfairly here, anticipating the lynch and mafia flip of LC.

~~~

that's probably enough. based on what i can see here in my still limited experience with this game thread, i think there are valid reasons to suspect nutella. if i am off-base on anything, i ask anyone to tell me why. this exercise alone was very helpful in getting me acclimated with the progression of the game though.

Sloonei wrote:

Golden wrote:I think DF's activity has increased slightly since you suggested he was bad.

This is true, and I like some of his contributions over the last couple of days. It's not enough to make me feel good about him, but I my suspicion has wavered a little. I'd still like for him to be a person we discuss more thoroughly today.
I should ask him a bunch of questions.

Golden wrote:I love that G-Man resorted to a literal wifom meme.

Neverwhere wrote:

FZ. wrote:Scotty, no, I'm not sure that corruption means the player will change to bad, but I want to be sure about this, because if any of us were bad and could recruit or something of the sort, we'd take the most trusted player in the game. Right now, that's obviously Sloonei. So unless someone saved him, or he has a power to survive a NK on his own, I would be quite worried.

As for Golden voting Epi, that's a very weird choice, and I think we should think about why it's there. I doubt he was forced to do it, because Epig was not a high candidate for a lynch, so why waste it on him. So it seems he voted Epi for a good reason, at least to him.

Oh, and Neverwhere just reminded me about Splints.
Splints, of course civvies hesitate, but I think your choices for baddies are too easy. I think Bubbles is not bad, and based on his recent posts, I don't see Bass as bad either. I could be wrong of course, but it seems as if you chose the easy targets.

Very good point. Also...like I said before. Cobalt out of nowhere says he's 100% sure of Epi being bad and Golden suddenly just votes for him also.

Golden wrote:

fingersplints wrote:Is there a limit to how many times a player can sub into a game?

Meh, provided the mafia just keep killing him, I don't mind.

Golden wrote:So, here is what I'll say about where I'm leaning today...

I still think BR's posts are really easy to pull off as a baddie game. How many people has she even discussed, hardly any. She isn't leaving any tracks, and that bothers me a lot. The more time that passes, the more worried about BR I become.

I don't like that Canuck is posting her thoughts in a perfectly legitimate way that make it appear she is keeping up with the thread but that she does not pay any attention to questions asked of her.

I'm willing to give splints a pass for now because I can vouch for the fact that she was being lynched at the time in RYM #86.

And, what has happened to Hedgeowl? The moment she took suspicion, she seems to have stopped posting so much... not necessarily in frequency but certainly in terms of content.

And I do REALLY want tinybubbles to post a bit more of her thoughts. Maybe I'll just call her bubbles instead of the other thing. Plenty of people are quiet and under the radar but she still managed 24 posts by the time she died on night 3 in Economics. Bubbles, 5 posts is not matching up to that - you seem even quieter. More of your thoughts please.

And DREAM has exactly one post so... what to do with that?

These people are more likely to get my vote than Cobalt. There is literally zero chance Long Con could get my vote today short of a very significant change in the case made against him.

Dom wrote:MP, I didn't know your dissertation was going to be posted in my game's thread!

Golden wrote:

Long Con wrote:Comments on issues rather than players are an easy way for a baddie to be involved without getting their hands dirty.

I feel like this is so on point.

Sloonei wrote:I would add to Turnip's post that in Hedgeowl's third post, she seems to state that MP's rainbow list is something worth taking note of, but all she goes on to say is that it made her laugh.

Golden wrote:Yes, TH, that's exactly what I was trying to do. I felt like Hedgeowl's statement was definitely something that could be referred back to later to defend LC or SVS, and I didn't want to allow it to be used that way. I could definitely see a scenario where Hedgeowl is in a team with LC or SVS and was hoping to have some else run with her comment and imply that LC or SVS were being bandwagoned.

Also, her response question 'Did I say that?' - was a noteworthy response to me.

Neverwhere wrote:I'm with Turnip Head on this one. I got so caught up focusing on the whole Epi - Lc - SVS talk I forgot about the posts Hedgeowl had made. They read really scummy to me too. A lot of mafia excuse speak. If Hedge is bad, it seems kind of sloppy of her....

At this point she's pinging me the most for a day 1 vote.

I am reading Gumshoe as civvie for now.

Turnip Head wrote:

Golden wrote:Yes, TH, that's exactly what I was trying to do. I felt like Hedgeowl's statement was definitely something that could be referred back to later to defend LC or SVS, and I didn't want to allow it to be used that way. I could definitely see a scenario where Hedgeowl is in a team with LC or SVS and was hoping to have some else run with her comment and imply that LC or SVS were being bandwagoned.

It just seems so out of place in that post. And I see what you're saying, she could refer back to that remark to preemptively counter any bandwagons she doesn't like. It's like that sentence came from the future and landed in Hedgeowl's post.

Sloonei wrote:

Gumshoe wrote:

Hedgeowl wrote:MP's redonkulous rainbow list aside ( )

I feel like I've seen a couple of people making fun of his list and I don't really understand why. Keeping a list rating how suspicious you are of each person in addition to your notes seems like a good idea. Is it just because his is color-coded?

i'll also be using rainbow lists, just so everyone knows. get ready.

Golden wrote:Hedgeowl - if several people ended up voting for LC or SVS today, would you consider that there seemed to be good reasons for that, or are you saying that you find the reasons to suspect LC and SVS unconvincing?

Epignosis wrote:HEDGEOWL!

Go vote 18.

Epignosis wrote:HOMEGIRL!

Epignosis wrote:

Bass_the_Clever wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

Bass_the_Clever wrote:

Epignosis wrote:I want to lynch Long Con. That's where my Day 1 vote will be going as of right now.

Why? If you posted it already can you post a link.

It's Day 0. Long Con has six posts. I'm not posting a link for you. Read his posts and draw your own conclusion. Then tell me if you find anything suspicious.

If you don't, then I'll gladly share what I found.

Ok I read the six post, but I would still like to know what you find suspicious.
Is it because there are only six post, 3 of which are fluff posts?
Is it the MP/Epi shoving match post?

As promised:

Long Con wrote:This all got very interesting.

No it didn't. It's all Day 0 dicking around. Nothing has gotten interesting at all. "Interesting" is a stupid word. Stop using it Mafia.

Long Con wrote:I see MP07 is going full-swing with the Question-Hammer, good to see! Gets people talking.

According to LC, MP is getting people talking, and it's "good to see." Hold that in mind.

Long Con wrote:I'm not too pinged by this truce thing, and I don't know what to think about the shoving match between MP and Epig yet.

If you "don't know what to think" about something, why in hell bring it up? Does anybody care that you don't know what to think about something? Why not keep quiet until you do know what you think?

And why characterize my exchange with MP as a "shoving match?" That can't be genuine. In this same post, LC said MP was "swinging the question hammer," which is "good to see." Now he's not sure what to think about the Epi/MP "shoving match?"

This doesn't smell right to me.

I'm voting Long Con, except I can't because Hedgeowl hasn't voted 18 yet.