protocultures wrote: ↑Tue Jun 23, 2020 12:33 pm
I had the same issue on mobile. If you flip it to landscape mode, the buttons on the left hand side show up so you should be able to iso without going to page 1.
The lack of engagement with my grand plan to repulse the alien threat makes me sad.
Either people didnt read it, read it but didnt understand it and dont want to ask questions, or they are aliens who are scared of the grand plan.
town coming together with an agreed game plan is important in this setup. Having everyone go maverick/solo/secret night actions all the time is massively anti town imo. There isnt even any real benefit to individual scum hunting.
You either project town to Nutella or you dont. Beyond this, you try and figure out the best way to help town win.
The number of purely defensive posts is surprising to me, particularly from people with huge post counts (who i expect should know better).
If these people are going to come out with some awesome strat later on, I will sit down and shut up, but until then, should I not expect constructive posts on day 0? Is this like meme day 0 on forums?
To summarise again:
Assuming Day 0 (no shoot) --> Day 1 (laser shoot) --> Night 1 (alient 1KP)
We just need Nutella to rng 3 people from the 14 to bunker save Nutella, no exceptions. These people confirm receipt of the instruction from Nutella and nobody else stacks/wastes bunker saves on Nutella.
For the math, this is 1 minus (4/14 x 3/13 x 2/12) = 1 – 24/2184 = 98.9% because the only permutation where we lose laser Night 1, is if we rng 3 aliens. That is 3 bunker saves used out of a total of 40.
[If laser shoots a town on Day 1, the math changes slightly to 4/13 x 3/12 x 2/11, so we get 24/1,716, so 1.4% chance we insta lose first night. I am still okay with that. Odds get lower than 1.1% if laser shoots alien day 1. Either way, its so low, we shouldnt care about it.]
For the second part, I suggest we nominate 4 additional people to be bunker saved and identify who will save them. Nutella to nominate if town consensus cannot be found. What does this all achieve?
Without a grand plan, aliens POE into 10 bunkers plus Laser.
With this plan, aliens can ONLY POE into 6 potential players which is now also known to town.
4 of the players are "safe" due to being actually saved or proxy saved because an alien was allocated to bunker someone on a 1KP night. At this stage, we have used 7 bunker saves so far.
This leaves our pool of random bunker shots who I think should save at an average rate something between 1/2 and 1 per night per random bunker with higher weighting to bunker saving on early days to reduce chances of dying with high bunker saves remaining.
What does this result in?
We get much cleaner info on saves, which helps Nutella make more informed day shots.
Assuming about half the unallocated savers bunker into the POE, this means we get a decent shot at finding a save, AND when saved, we should be able to narrow it down to 1 to 3 people. Because there were 6 people in the POE for aliens, nobody died, and only 3 people got bunkered for example. Think how massively more helpful this is than everyone doinf their own thing and landing save where POE was 10 people. The chances of landing a save in the first place is smaller, the chance of stacking bunkers (a waste on a 1KP night), and even if you DO land a save, you now have a larger POE of potential town who got saved.
