Highway Heist (MAFIA WIN)

[Hally]

Hally is townreading Dyslexicon because Dyslexicon is pushing her and "that is what Dyslexicon would do if they were town", but like actually let's be real. Hally is actually bleedingly obvious town and town Dyslexicon would have that read and not be pushing her lol. Hally is just levelling herself out of the easier read.

Also noting Dyslexicon isn't even voting her, so Hally is reading Dizzy town for pushing her even though Dizzy isn't even pushing her really.

it wasn’t for pushing me per se, it was more like i bought that i thought the way he was even entertaining i could be a wolf was villagery

like, i don’t know if a wolf could actually bring themselves to look at my posting this game through the lens of TMI and be like “yeah i could say hally is wolfy”

i did misread w!dizzy once for seeming “paranoid” of me but iirc that game he really just did it early D1 and then stopped once i posted myself clear whereas this game he did it SoD2 after i had already posted myself clear (at least imo)

[Hally]

Hally is townreading Dyslexicon because Dyslexicon is pushing her and "that is what Dyslexicon would do if they were town", but like actually let's be real. Hally is actually bleedingly obvious town and town Dyslexicon would have that read and not be pushing her lol. Hally is just levelling herself out of the easier read.

Also noting Dyslexicon isn't even voting her, so Hally is reading Dizzy town for pushing her even though Dizzy isn't even pushing her really.

it wasn’t for pushing me per se, it was more like i thought the way he was even entertaining i could be a wolf was villagery

like, i don’t know if a wolf could actually bring themselves to look at my posting this game through the lens of TMI and be like “yeah i could say hally is wolfy”

i did misread w!dizzy once for seeming “paranoid” of me but iirc that game he really just did it early D1 and then stopped once i posted myself clear whereas this game he did it SoD2 after i had already posted myself clear (at least imo)

fixed

[Master Radishes]

I have reasons to townread pretty much everyone, and a dearth of good reasons to scumread pretty much everyone.

This might be a symptom of me feeling out of sync with the game in general, but the fact that I'm now consensus scum within a small pool of possibilities makes me think the game is just harder than people realise.

I think all I can do for the remainder of today is make sure you guys don't chop me.

[Hally]

but i mean, it’s possible he could do it because yolo

his “you should have known alison was trolling” was pretty flimsy because like, it’s alison and i’ve never seen her troll before this game lol

[Hally]

irt to the latter I would add that they in fact were not viewed as such by anyone else aside from specifically c4 who I am now tunneling as dizzy's partner for separate reasons

Let me know if you disagree with c4/Dizzy analysis. In the interest of immediate solving I am just going to say: I think c4 had a PR read on Dizzy at least for a moment, and that's what caused c4's faux-1610 "slip" post. If true, they're not both mafia. I made a few other points in there too.

@c4e5g3d5 confirm?

[Master Radishes]

I should probably, like, iso someone before stating opinions, but yolo.

I've been mulling over Mac a lot lately. I'm trying to fit his actions into a narrative.

Scum!Mac survived D1 fairly easily albeit with sus draped over him. He comes into D2 with his team on the advantage (imagine a town chopping Alison hahahaha) and...goes on the attack against Jay(/Hally). He then backs off this, takes a thread break, and returns with different routes of solving. I suppose in this scenario, scum!Mac sensed he could be next on the block despite the Alison miss, and decides to go ham on a couple strong Towns for performance reasons, knowing how it could play out would lead to Jay/Hally calling him town for it. I think all of that fits well enough, actually? Like if someone would play that way it would be Mac. He has many different flavours to his scum meta, even if there are commonalities.

But the thing I can't quite get past is...the rest of it. He is the right amount of reluctant to let go of his Jay scumread at first, barely has thread presence for the middle portion of D2, then returns and takes a new direction in his solving and is even cooperative with Jay. That just feels real to me.

Without isoing anything to double check my impressions, I just want to call Mac town and risk being a fool. (Like of course he'd change his scum game after GoC - he couldn't risk approaching that meta at all - but this still feels organic.)

[Master Radishes]

yolo

We're such masons we even use the same phrase at the same time.

[Hally]

@Hally I am townreading Jay because I am in fact town and he decided to be obvious about his alignment today to a ridiculous degree.

Refrain from tinfoil for the love of all that is holy.

lemme tinfoil in peace gdi

we all know that all of us are too weak to do anything about it so if you’re the team you’re gonna win regardless of what i say lol

[Hally]

okay but what if it’s like NAA/wilgy and we’re just imploding for no reason as both wolves do nothing? because that’s not even unlikely

nobody has been able to explain why wilgy is a villager still and i find the reasons why NAA is a villager unconvincing

[NotAnAxehole]

@JaggedJimmyJay I'm going to vaguely explain why Mac is mafia without giving away the read entirely.

Let's assume that Mac is mafia, then we can assume that there is a certain agenda to his posts. I'm not going to guess too much as to how this would work.

Now, let's assume that Mac is town... Well then we can assume that he is playing without an agenda, which should roughly demonstrate a random distribution as to the alignment of people he's communicating with.

The random distribution would not necessarily be the game!rand distribution, but leaning towards mac!reads rand distribution. I'm going to assume (I've tested this with a couple games) that Mac's gut / instinctive replies are above the game rand, and he replies to mafia about 30% of the time as town.

Now, if we take this on some of his runs of posting, we can determine that there is about mechanically a 1% chance that Mac, Hally, JJJ, NAA, Nanook, DrWilgy are all town.

I know my alignment, and I have Hally, JJJ as lock town.

I think DrWilgy is firmly within town meta... If you disagree here, this is where I can be wrong.

[Master Radishes]

I'm struggling with Jay lately. Everything seems clean on the surface. But if anyone is keeping my head under the surface D2 it's him, even as he protests it is not him. His initial reasons for SRing me were pretty basic. He's putting in tons of effort lately, but also, like...is it all that much? Quoting a bunch of posts then writing a paragraph summary of them? It's not busywork per se, but I don't think I'd effort-clear him for it, not for someone like Jay who eats isos for breakfast.


But I think I should re-read something (anything) before I start spitballing too much. People are allowed to misread me, and it makes sense in D2 in this gamestate to have me in their sights.

[NotAnAxehole]

Also, @JaggedJimmyJay That's why I don't have MR & Dizzy as mafia together.

[Hally]

MR and NAA

From MR

Spoiler: show

Catching up was fun until you all stopped talking about me. I'm going to stop and just assume Mac and NAA are voting me for no reason because it's them. I can see Alison's quoted on this page.

nobody has any thoughts on this?

Can I get a tldr on Axe that doesn't revolve around "not towny"

- treatment of alison is wolfy - opens saying he wants to sheep her while not yet having a read on her then v reads her for a weak reason that doesn’t really apply to her and makes no effort engage with/understand the suspicion surrounding her i.e. what villagers do when someone they v read is getting wolf read a ton. just don’t see any critical thought or drive to figure things out in his treatment of her and it reads more like he’s just trying to ingratiate himself to her.

- treatment of his nonconsensus suspects is wolfy - keeps throwing you out as a wolf read but does nothing about it. again, not what villagers do when someone they wolf read is getting widely v read. i think at one point he even threw out you/jay/dizzy as his suspects and you’re all being cleared pretty much, meaning from his pov town’s consensus is way off, yet i don’t see any of the concern in his posts that villagers have when they think everything is upside down.

- i find his treatment of me wolfy too but obviously biased there. just don’t feel like he’s been trying to solve me in a good faith way.

also he and nanook know each other well afaik + nanook has been getting a lot of heat, but NAA has largely ignored him i think

i dunno, just not feeling the villager in the way he’s approaching anything but i’ve never played with him so maybe i’m backwards here

Never seen scum NAA either so dunno, but I did read it over earlier and didn't have anything to counter it, just so you know your hard work didn't go to waste.

I found it easy to misread Axey first time I played with him though. So like your second point of not seeing concern in his posts does feel normal for him imo.

Here is my advice on what to do. First, eliminate Alison so that I won't die today.

If Alison flips scum, then eliminate Mac. If Mac is town, then eliminate Dizzy and Wilgy, in that order.

If Alison flips town, then eliminate me. I will flip town, whereupon which you should eliminate NAA and Wilgy.

I have about a 60% confidence that this solve wins the game. This may not seem like a lot of confidence, but it's actually quite a lot if you think about what I am proposing.

[VOTE: NAA] aubergine

Omgus

My wagon has the two most stale votes.

Like I guess Axe moved his briefly to put Alison at 5 or whatever happened, but seeing as he then went back to me that barely counts.

Imagine it's Alison/NAA and both wolves have sat on my wagon for the bulk of the Day.

The fun thing about always being LHF is being bait.

What if the crowd of Jay, Hally, Dizzy, C4, Marmot, and I all rank Alison, NAA, Mac in preferred order and then find the average score to decide who dies.

(In this plan Wilgy and NAA are NPCs.)

What if the crowd of Jay, Hally, Dizzy, C4, Marmot, and I all rank Alison, NAA, Mac in preferred order and then find the average score to decide who dies.

(In this plan Wilgy and NAA are NPCs.)

*Nook, not NAA, for that last sentence.

Alison > NAA > Mac > Nook

Not sure I'm ready for a Wilgy yeet at this stage.

So I can have some light reading on my bus ride home, why was NAA's EoD villagery?

I dont even know what to feel about him, I just don't really get why he's now a town read.

[VOTE: NAA] aubergine

Okay.

Why am I and Dizzy in a dichotomy? That was an Alison thing and now it's an NAA thing and I don't know why.

Why am I and Dizzy in a dichotomy? That was an Alison thing and now it's an NAA thing and I don't know why.

You're both scummy, and I trust Alison sufficiently to carry her legacy out. This is why I sheeped her from the moment I thought she was town.

But why is there a difference check?

Why am I and Dizzy in a dichotomy? That was an Alison thing and now it's an NAA thing and I don't know why.

You're both scummy, and I trust Alison sufficiently to carry her legacy out. This is why I sheeped her from the moment I thought she was town.

But why is there a difference check?

Because likely only one of you can be mafia... And at least one of you MUST be mafia.

But


and hear me out here


why?

And what's your reasoning for me being scummy?

You should have argued with the ghost before she became a ghost.

Alison had a case. A poor one, but a case.

What's yours?

Like I mostly am trying to get a read on NAA in return by understanding him. I don't intend to defend myself point by point or anything.

But like... Jay. Wtf.

From NAA

Spoiler: show

So, MasterRadishes is mafia right, when are yall moving onto this wagon?

Can you talk more about why MR is scum?

Baaaaaaaaaaah

[VOTE: NAA] aubergine

Don't be foolish, we can sheep Alison together.

It won't work. My vote for alison isn't sheeping.

Oh, I meant sheep Alison on her MR read.

I would also kill MR. MR or dizzy best chances of hitting mafia

I would also kill MR. MR or dizzy best chances of hitting mafia

I know you're not the explaining type, but it would be valuable to me if you could just expand this by like one more sentence.

MR see Alison

Dizzy see voting history - idgi, it seems like the objective was to always vote Alison and to appear to be doing other things throughout the day.

That is all

Kill MR if Mafia - > Nanook

Kill MR if Town -> Dizzy if Mafia -> Mac

Why am I and Dizzy in a dichotomy? That was an Alison thing and now it's an NAA thing and I don't know why.

You're both scummy, and I trust Alison sufficiently to carry her legacy out. This is why I sheeped her from the moment I thought she was town.

Why am I and Dizzy in a dichotomy? That was an Alison thing and now it's an NAA thing and I don't know why.

You're both scummy, and I trust Alison sufficiently to carry her legacy out. This is why I sheeped her from the moment I thought she was town.

But why is there a difference check?

Because likely only one of you can be mafia... And at least one of you MUST be mafia.

And what's your reasoning for me being scummy?

You should have argued with the ghost before she became a ghost.

Conclusion

I think this interaction looks pretty clear from both sides with respect to mafia-mafia indicators. Either way the agenda I see [if I assume either to be mafia in isolation] suggests mafia/town. If MR is mafia, then he views NAA as a necessary mischop and is trying to generate that reality with subtle or not-subtle suggestions that NAA is not meeting a standard of explanation and/or trying to capitalize on low-hanging fruit (MR himself). If NAA is mafia, then he is minimizing his own ability to gain credit from chopping MR if MR is also mafia -- he is attributing his suspicion largely or entirely to Alison's legacy, meaning the credit would go to Alison. I don't figure these two are mafia teammates.

not to reduce all your work to a bad joke but if you combine MR and NAA it becomes mRNA

[Hally]

I started to read D1 from scratch, but it got super boring quickly. However, probably the only real thought I has was that Nanook had a pretty towny opening there. And later now he points out the same thing. His frustration and self vote stuff is maybe a bit icky, I don't know. It's a tempting thing to do ig. Ruminating a bit on it, I think Nanook might be town. I feel like I'm just guessing, same as everyone else. Which is demotivating.

I'm probably just going to keep town reading Hally/Jay/c4.
Mac is somehow in his own category, but I would just guess he's town because vibes. However, I never became clear about if he scum read Hally or town read Hally when he had his fight with Jay. Cause it was like "Jay and Hally are the mafia" and then he answered to me that Hally was derp cleared town. And I didn't get any of it. A not to whoever cares.
Hally I town read for my own reasons.
c4 I town read much for the reasons Hally stated here.
I have no energy to do anything other than town read Jay, and it's very likely correct.

If I take out Nanook, NAA/Wilgy/MR is probably my pool.
I haven't really considered my teammate MR a lot. If you all say he's mafia, cool. I hope it's right for the game state.
Wilgy and NAA exist.

what are the reasons?

[Master Radishes]

okay but what if it’s like NAA/wilgy and we’re just imploding for no reason as both wolves do nothing? because that’s not even unlikely

nobody has been able to explain why wilgy is a villager still and i find the reasons why NAA is a villager unconvincing

NAA is doing town!him things on the surface, like throwing out a single read at a time and sticking to it, keeping a low volume, etc.

He played recently on CDC and had, like, two whole reads the entire game, and one was correct. So far in this game he's basically said 'Alison V, MR W' and he's batting .500 on that one too. (I guess lately he's daring to state opinions on others as well, but more as throw-outs rather than central aspects of his worldview.)

So like...yeah, he's in his town meta. But honestly that's not really enough to meta-read someone imo. I don't see anything he's posted that can't come from scum!him, knowing if he keeps a low profile we'll let him go for awhile.

My issue is that if it's just not him, and I can't say with much certainty it is, then I'm living in a hard world of Jay/C4/Dizzy/Nook and some of those combos don't make sense and it's gonna be a lot of effort to get it right if we're in LYLO or close to it.

[Master Radishes]

Oh we're using maths to solve are we.

Fun.

[NotAnAxehole]

Oh we're using maths to solve are we.

Fun.

I always use math to solve.

[Hally]

@JaggedJimmyJay I'm going to vaguely explain why Mac is mafia without giving away the read entirely.

Let's assume that Mac is mafia, then we can assume that there is a certain agenda to his posts. I'm not going to guess too much as to how this would work.

Now, let's assume that Mac is town... Well then we can assume that he is playing without an agenda, which should roughly demonstrate a random distribution as to the alignment of people he's communicating with.

The random distribution would not necessarily be the game!rand distribution, but leaning towards mac!reads rand distribution. I'm going to assume (I've tested this with a couple games) that Mac's gut / instinctive replies are above the game rand, and he replies to mafia about 30% of the time as town.

Now, if we take this on some of his runs of posting, we can determine that there is about mechanically a 1% chance that Mac, Hally, JJJ, NAA, Nanook, DrWilgy are all town.

I know my alignment, and I have Hally, JJJ as lock town.

I think DrWilgy is firmly within town meta... If you disagree here, this is where I can be wrong.

[Hally]

what does that post even mean lol

[NotAnAxehole]

what does that post even mean lol

It means I'm 99% sure that C4, Dizzy, MR contain 1 or fewer mafia.

[Hally]

I'm struggling with Jay lately. Everything seems clean on the surface. But if anyone is keeping my head under the surface D2 it's him, even as he protests it is not him. His initial reasons for SRing me were pretty basic. He's putting in tons of effort lately, but also, like...is it all that much? Quoting a bunch of posts then writing a paragraph summary of them? It's not busywork per se, but I don't think I'd effort-clear him for it, not for someone like Jay who eats isos for breakfast.


But I think I should re-read something (anything) before I start spitballing too much. People are allowed to misread me, and it makes sense in D2 in this gamestate to have me in their sights.

i hate to say it but i find this post and your last one about mac kinda wolfy

kinda feel like you’re just forcing yourself to write a bunch of words that actually don’t say much

[NotAnAxehole]

Based on a Mac read.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Also, @JaggedJimmyJay That's why I don't have MR & Dizzy as mafia together.

Are you keeping a spreadsheet to track how frequently Mac responds to each player in the game?

[NotAnAxehole]

Also, @JaggedJimmyJay That's why I don't have MR & Dizzy as mafia together.

Are you keeping a spreadsheet to track how frequently Mac responds to each player in the game?

I have not shoved this game's data into a spreadsheet.

[Master Radishes]

I'm struggling with Jay lately. Everything seems clean on the surface. But if anyone is keeping my head under the surface D2 it's him, even as he protests it is not him. His initial reasons for SRing me were pretty basic. He's putting in tons of effort lately, but also, like...is it all that much? Quoting a bunch of posts then writing a paragraph summary of them? It's not busywork per se, but I don't think I'd effort-clear him for it, not for someone like Jay who eats isos for breakfast.


But I think I should re-read something (anything) before I start spitballing too much. People are allowed to misread me, and it makes sense in D2 in this gamestate to have me in their sights.

i hate to say it but i find this post and your last one about mac kinda wolfy

kinda feel like you’re just forcing yourself to write a bunch of words that actually don’t say much

I'm forcing myself to write words and thoughts that have floated in my brain today in order to try to get myself into the game again.

[Hally]

okay but what if it’s like NAA/wilgy and we’re just imploding for no reason as both wolves do nothing? because that’s not even unlikely

nobody has been able to explain why wilgy is a villager still and i find the reasons why NAA is a villager unconvincing

NAA is doing town!him things on the surface, like throwing out a single read at a time and sticking to it, keeping a low volume, etc.

He played recently on CDC and had, like, two whole reads the entire game, and one was correct. So far in this game he's basically said 'Alison V, MR W' and he's batting .500 on that one too. (I guess lately he's daring to state opinions on others as well, but more as throw-outs rather than central aspects of his worldview.)

So like...yeah, he's in his town meta. But honestly that's not really enough to meta-read someone imo. I don't see anything he's posted that can't come from scum!him, knowing if he keeps a low profile we'll let him go for awhile.

My issue is that if it's just not him, and I can't say with much certainty it is, then I'm living in a hard world of Jay/C4/Dizzy/Nook and some of those combos don't make sense and it's gonna be a lot of effort to get it right if we're in LYLO or close to it.

why are you not considering wilgy? or are you?

[c4e5g3d5]

irt to the latter I would add that they in fact were not viewed as such by anyone else aside from specifically c4 who I am now tunneling as dizzy's partner for separate reasons

Let me know if you disagree with c4/Dizzy analysis. In the interest of immediate solving I am just going to say: I think c4 had a PR read on Dizzy at least for a moment, and that's what caused c4's faux-1610 "slip" post. If true, they're not both mafia. I made a few other points in there too.

@c4e5g3d5 confirm?

Close enough
Thought it was probably fake but wasn't sure either way and wanted to just resolve it
Especially since he was softing something that would've 180'd all my reads

[NotAnAxehole]

But I can count in thread and then run a simple exponential in excel no problem without that.

[Hally]

what does that post even mean lol

It means I'm 99% sure that C4, Dizzy, MR contain 1 or fewer mafia.

[Master Radishes]

okay but what if it’s like NAA/wilgy and we’re just imploding for no reason as both wolves do nothing? because that’s not even unlikely

nobody has been able to explain why wilgy is a villager still and i find the reasons why NAA is a villager unconvincing

NAA is doing town!him things on the surface, like throwing out a single read at a time and sticking to it, keeping a low volume, etc.

He played recently on CDC and had, like, two whole reads the entire game, and one was correct. So far in this game he's basically said 'Alison V, MR W' and he's batting .500 on that one too. (I guess lately he's daring to state opinions on others as well, but more as throw-outs rather than central aspects of his worldview.)

So like...yeah, he's in his town meta. But honestly that's not really enough to meta-read someone imo. I don't see anything he's posted that can't come from scum!him, knowing if he keeps a low profile we'll let him go for awhile.

My issue is that if it's just not him, and I can't say with much certainty it is, then I'm living in a hard world of Jay/C4/Dizzy/Nook and some of those combos don't make sense and it's gonna be a lot of effort to get it right if we're in LYLO or close to it.

why are you not considering wilgy? or are you?

I didn't say it I guess but NAA/Wilgy is sort of the 'easy' world as I think you pointed out recently.

But I'm not wasting words on Wilgy atm because there's nothing much to say. I think his general lack of activity is NAI and even if he's a wolf there's another in the crowd to find.

[Master Radishes]

what does that post even mean lol

It means I'm 99% sure that C4, Dizzy, MR contain 1 or fewer mafia.

Because MATH

[c4e5g3d5]

I'm struggling with Jay lately. Everything seems clean on the surface. But if anyone is keeping my head under the surface D2 it's him, even as he protests it is not him. His initial reasons for SRing me were pretty basic. He's putting in tons of effort lately, but also, like...is it all that much? Quoting a bunch of posts then writing a paragraph summary of them? It's not busywork per se, but I don't think I'd effort-clear him for it, not for someone like Jay who eats isos for breakfast.


But I think I should re-read something (anything) before I start spitballing too much. People are allowed to misread me, and it makes sense in D2 in this gamestate to have me in their sights.

This says annoyingly little

[Hally]

irt to the latter I would add that they in fact were not viewed as such by anyone else aside from specifically c4 who I am now tunneling as dizzy's partner for separate reasons

Let me know if you disagree with c4/Dizzy analysis. In the interest of immediate solving I am just going to say: I think c4 had a PR read on Dizzy at least for a moment, and that's what caused c4's faux-1610 "slip" post. If true, they're not both mafia. I made a few other points in there too.

@c4e5g3d5 confirm?

Close enough
Thought it was probably fake but wasn't sure either way and wanted to just resolve it
Especially since he was softing something that would've 180'd all my reads

wait

did you think he was softing a red on me?

[c4e5g3d5]

irt to the latter I would add that they in fact were not viewed as such by anyone else aside from specifically c4 who I am now tunneling as dizzy's partner for separate reasons

Let me know if you disagree with c4/Dizzy analysis. In the interest of immediate solving I am just going to say: I think c4 had a PR read on Dizzy at least for a moment, and that's what caused c4's faux-1610 "slip" post. If true, they're not both mafia. I made a few other points in there too.

@c4e5g3d5 confirm?

Close enough
Thought it was probably fake but wasn't sure either way and wanted to just resolve it
Especially since he was softing something that would've 180'd all my reads

wait

did you think he was softing a red on me?

Yeah, a watch

[Hally]

irt to the latter I would add that they in fact were not viewed as such by anyone else aside from specifically c4 who I am now tunneling as dizzy's partner for separate reasons

Let me know if you disagree with c4/Dizzy analysis. In the interest of immediate solving I am just going to say: I think c4 had a PR read on Dizzy at least for a moment, and that's what caused c4's faux-1610 "slip" post. If true, they're not both mafia. I made a few other points in there too.

@c4e5g3d5 confirm?

Close enough
Thought it was probably fake but wasn't sure either way and wanted to just resolve it
Especially since he was softing something that would've 180'd all my reads

wait

did you think he was softing a red on me?

Yeah, a watch

why a watch specifically?

[c4e5g3d5]

irt to the latter I would add that they in fact were not viewed as such by anyone else aside from specifically c4 who I am now tunneling as dizzy's partner for separate reasons

Let me know if you disagree with c4/Dizzy analysis. In the interest of immediate solving I am just going to say: I think c4 had a PR read on Dizzy at least for a moment, and that's what caused c4's faux-1610 "slip" post. If true, they're not both mafia. I made a few other points in there too.

@c4e5g3d5 confirm?

Close enough
Thought it was probably fake but wasn't sure either way and wanted to just resolve it
Especially since he was softing something that would've 180'd all my reads

wait

did you think he was softing a red on me?

Yeah, a watch

why a watch specifically?

His second post of the day

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@JaggedJimmyJay I'm going to vaguely explain why Mac is mafia without giving away the read entirely.

Let's assume that Mac is mafia, then we can assume that there is a certain agenda to his posts. I'm not going to guess too much as to how this would work.

Now, let's assume that Mac is town... Well then we can assume that he is playing without an agenda, which should roughly demonstrate a random distribution as to the alignment of people he's communicating with.

The random distribution would not necessarily be the game!rand distribution, but leaning towards mac!reads rand distribution. I'm going to assume (I've tested this with a couple games) that Mac's gut / instinctive replies are above the game rand, and he replies to mafia about 30% of the time as town.

Now, if we take this on some of his runs of posting, we can determine that there is about mechanically a 1% chance that Mac, Hally, JJJ, NAA, Nanook, DrWilgy are all town.

I know my alignment, and I have Hally, JJJ as lock town.

I think DrWilgy is firmly within town meta... If you disagree here, this is where I can be wrong.

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, this methodology strikes me as 451ian, perhaps Ellibereth-school. Can you corroborate that and/or whether it’s something you associate with NAA?

[Hally]

I was watching the Alison thing on phone, pretty much knew it was wrong, but didn’t do anything about it. And when she claimed mafia, I thought it was pretty obvious she was lying.

wow lol

[Hally]

damn, if you faked that as a wolf hats off

[JaggedJimmyJay]

For the crowd:

If MR/Dizzy contains one but not two, which do you feel is most likely and [if you feel like it] why?

[c4e5g3d5]

For the crowd:

If MR/Dizzy contains one but not two, which do you feel is most likely and [if you feel like it] why?

Still think Dizzy's town
Shrug

[Hally]

that may be the villageriest thing anyone has done this game

[Master Radishes]

For the crowd:

If MR/Dizzy contains one but not two, which do you feel is most likely and [if you feel like it] why?

Dizzy, because I know my role card.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

that may be the villageriest thing anyone has done this game

I’m not sure what you’re referring to

[c4e5g3d5]

For the crowd:

If MR/Dizzy contains one but not two, which do you feel is most likely and [if you feel like it] why?

Dizzy, because I know my role card.

What's your Dizzy read like rn
If you've already said it I'm too lazy to go find it

[Master Radishes]

For the crowd:

If MR/Dizzy contains one but not two, which do you feel is most likely and [if you feel like it] why?

Dizzy, because I know my role card.

What's your Dizzy read like rn
If you've already said it I'm too lazy to go find it

I haven't. I had good vibes D1 and that's about as far as I got. I've not really...done anything D2. Maybe you've noticed.

[Master Radishes]

I can't decide whether everyone pairing me/Dizzy means we're both town or you're all doing well enough and are just misfiring on one of your options.

I kind of want it to be the former as an eff you to everyone.

[c4e5g3d5]

For the crowd:

If MR/Dizzy contains one but not two, which do you feel is most likely and [if you feel like it] why?

Dizzy, because I know my role card.

What's your Dizzy read like rn
If you've already said it I'm too lazy to go find it

I haven't. I had good vibes D1 and that's about as far as I got. I've not really...done anything D2. Maybe you've noticed.

Have you read why I think he's town and if so do you care
Have you read why Jay/Mac think he's not town and if so do you care

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I can't decide whether everyone pairing me/Dizzy means we're both town or you're all doing well enough and are just misfiring on one of your options.

I kind of want it to be the former as an eff you to everyone.

If you’re town you’re in a better position than anyone to discern who is not.

[Master Radishes]

For the crowd:

If MR/Dizzy contains one but not two, which do you feel is most likely and [if you feel like it] why?

Dizzy, because I know my role card.

What's your Dizzy read like rn
If you've already said it I'm too lazy to go find it

I haven't. I had good vibes D1 and that's about as far as I got. I've not really...done anything D2. Maybe you've noticed.

Have you read why I think he's town and if so do you care
Have you read why Jay/Mac think he's not town and if so do you care

To both: if I have (I likely have) it didn't stick in my head enough to call it to mind in this moment. If you link I will read and consider. But also I'm doing Life Things right now so don't feel obligated to because I may put it off anyway.