Secret Playerlist - ENDGAME

FINAL FOOT

Poll ended at Sun Jan 01, 2023 8:00 pm

DeeZees
0
No votes
DrWilgy
0
No votes
Inawordyes
0
No votes
Neon
1
13%
Porscha
0
No votes
THE FOOT KICKS ALL
7
88%
 
Total votes: 8
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6001

Post by ☆Princess Abigail☆ »

Glad to know I'm not alone. Been feeling like I'm on an island this game.
Bubbly Magical Girl who loves Caitlin more than anything in the world!

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You are Zenon, Town 1-shot Desperado. You’re known for posting a lot (namely in anime gif form), playing a lot, and, most importantly, making snap decisions – particularly in the endgame. In a recent game, Wild West FM, you were taken to final 3 and immediately voted the last wolf, resulting in a LyLo that was strictly speaking over in four minutes and two posts. This game, we’re giving you the chance to accomplish a similar feat.

High-Risk High-Reward (Day 2+, 1-shot, Immediate): Spend 6 Snapvote Charges, post Fuck it we ball glgl in bold red text, and ping a player. (When you use this ability, you should also inform the hosts privately.) If they are Town, you will strongman die. Otherwise, you will strongman kill that player. This action resolves instantly.
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6002

Post by ilario »

well i had the uwu trio of u lily and porcha town on d1, so ur still on the uwu island for me. that being said i havent put much efforts into my reads so far
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6003

Post by ☆Princess Abigail☆ »

I feel bad I didnt have a chance to get back on and find lily...I sucks.
Bubbly Magical Girl who loves Caitlin more than anything in the world!

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You are Zenon, Town 1-shot Desperado. You’re known for posting a lot (namely in anime gif form), playing a lot, and, most importantly, making snap decisions – particularly in the endgame. In a recent game, Wild West FM, you were taken to final 3 and immediately voted the last wolf, resulting in a LyLo that was strictly speaking over in four minutes and two posts. This game, we’re giving you the chance to accomplish a similar feat.

High-Risk High-Reward (Day 2+, 1-shot, Immediate): Spend 6 Snapvote Charges, post Fuck it we ball glgl in bold red text, and ping a player. (When you use this ability, you should also inform the hosts privately.) If they are Town, you will strongman die. Otherwise, you will strongman kill that player. This action resolves instantly.
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6004

Post by ilario »

oh u tunneled lily?
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6005

Post by ☆Princess Abigail☆ »

Not really tunneled. I didn't end on her. Just thought she was sus early.
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You are Zenon, Town 1-shot Desperado. You’re known for posting a lot (namely in anime gif form), playing a lot, and, most importantly, making snap decisions – particularly in the endgame. In a recent game, Wild West FM, you were taken to final 3 and immediately voted the last wolf, resulting in a LyLo that was strictly speaking over in four minutes and two posts. This game, we’re giving you the chance to accomplish a similar feat.

High-Risk High-Reward (Day 2+, 1-shot, Immediate): Spend 6 Snapvote Charges, post Fuck it we ball glgl in bold red text, and ping a player. (When you use this ability, you should also inform the hosts privately.) If they are Town, you will strongman die. Otherwise, you will strongman kill that player. This action resolves instantly.
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6006

Post by ☆Princess Abigail☆ »

In the day
Bubbly Magical Girl who loves Caitlin more than anything in the world!

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Spoiler: show
You are Zenon, Town 1-shot Desperado. You’re known for posting a lot (namely in anime gif form), playing a lot, and, most importantly, making snap decisions – particularly in the endgame. In a recent game, Wild West FM, you were taken to final 3 and immediately voted the last wolf, resulting in a LyLo that was strictly speaking over in four minutes and two posts. This game, we’re giving you the chance to accomplish a similar feat.

High-Risk High-Reward (Day 2+, 1-shot, Immediate): Spend 6 Snapvote Charges, post Fuck it we ball glgl in bold red text, and ping a player. (When you use this ability, you should also inform the hosts privately.) If they are Town, you will strongman die. Otherwise, you will strongman kill that player. This action resolves instantly.
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6007

Post by ilario »

what was sus about her?
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6008

Post by ☆Princess Abigail☆ »

I dunno I just didn't like how she was paying and her entrance and how she was treating me but looking back I think I'm just an idiot lol
Bubbly Magical Girl who loves Caitlin more than anything in the world!

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Spoiler: show
You are Zenon, Town 1-shot Desperado. You’re known for posting a lot (namely in anime gif form), playing a lot, and, most importantly, making snap decisions – particularly in the endgame. In a recent game, Wild West FM, you were taken to final 3 and immediately voted the last wolf, resulting in a LyLo that was strictly speaking over in four minutes and two posts. This game, we’re giving you the chance to accomplish a similar feat.

High-Risk High-Reward (Day 2+, 1-shot, Immediate): Spend 6 Snapvote Charges, post Fuck it we ball glgl in bold red text, and ping a player. (When you use this ability, you should also inform the hosts privately.) If they are Town, you will strongman die. Otherwise, you will strongman kill that player. This action resolves instantly.
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6009

Post by falcon45ca »

Seanzie wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 9:02 am @falcon45ca you woofin'?
Nah, I'll get into this game soon enough
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6010

Post by Seanzie »

falcon45ca wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:01 pm
Seanzie wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 9:02 am @falcon45ca you woofin'?
Nah, I'll get into this game soon enough
I don't believe you.
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6011

Post by Ricochet »

[VOTE: sprityo] aubergine

What right does anyone have to object?
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6012

Post by falcon45ca »

Seanzie wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:09 pm
falcon45ca wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:01 pm
Seanzie wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 9:02 am @falcon45ca you woofin'?
Nah, I'll get into this game soon enough
I don't believe you.
Yes you do.


Or at least, you don't REALLY doubt me...it is not militant doubt, more passive in nature
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6013

Post by Seanzie »

falcon45ca wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:39 pm
Seanzie wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:09 pm
falcon45ca wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:01 pm
Seanzie wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 9:02 am @falcon45ca you woofin'?
Nah, I'll get into this game soon enough
I don't believe you.
Yes you do.


Or at least, you don't REALLY doubt me...it is not militant doubt, more passive in nature
This is true, but I've got my eyes on you.

:eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye: :eye:

all of them.
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6014

Post by ☆Princess Abigail☆ »

That's a lot of eyes
Bubbly Magical Girl who loves Caitlin more than anything in the world!

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Spoiler: show
You are Zenon, Town 1-shot Desperado. You’re known for posting a lot (namely in anime gif form), playing a lot, and, most importantly, making snap decisions – particularly in the endgame. In a recent game, Wild West FM, you were taken to final 3 and immediately voted the last wolf, resulting in a LyLo that was strictly speaking over in four minutes and two posts. This game, we’re giving you the chance to accomplish a similar feat.

High-Risk High-Reward (Day 2+, 1-shot, Immediate): Spend 6 Snapvote Charges, post Fuck it we ball glgl in bold red text, and ping a player. (When you use this ability, you should also inform the hosts privately.) If they are Town, you will strongman die. Otherwise, you will strongman kill that player. This action resolves instantly.
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6015

Post by Seanzie »

Neon wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:56 pm That's a lot of eyes
ALL OF THEM
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6016

Post by falcon45ca »

Neon wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:56 pm That's a lot of eyes
Yeah, but I bet he only has one pair of glasses.




And if he has a second, they are in junk drawer somewhere with an out of date prescription
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6017

Post by pyxxy »

Porscha wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 3:56 am
pyxxy wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:22 pm
Michelle wrote: Wed Dec 14, 2022 10:28 pm It's ok Pyxxy, colour PJ in the next though ^^

Your VC is very useful, did you have time to analyze it?
Let me know if there are more NPC hardclaims that I missed, I don't think I'll color any town claims though just fyi

I think it's interesting Manny and Lumi both hardclaimed NPC pretty fast on D1 and have been consistent in their voting behavior since. I would also read them as NPCs personally.

By comparison, SilverKeith going D1 no vote, D2 DrWigly, D3 vote DrWigly, D4 no vote is interesting, purely because it's an NPC claim behaving differently on different days. I don't read SK as wolfy though.

From D2 final vote count:
santygrass (6): Guillotine, Vivax, pyxxy, EnderWiggin, DeeZees, Creature
hollowkatt (6): santygrass, Jackofhearts2005, Ranmilia, Dyslexicon, tutuu, DrWilgy

[with ~7 min to go in D2]
tutuu wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 7:53 pm santygrass (6): nutella (171), Creature (121), DeeZees (44), pyxxy (14), Guillotine (192), Ranmilia (125)
hollowkatt (6): iaafr (236), Jackofhearts2005 (108), Hally (188), Dyslexicon (100), Vivax (42), DrWilgy (30)
[with ~1h15m to go in D2]
tutuu wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 6:44 pm hollowkatt (5): iaafr (229), Jackofhearts2005 (108), Hally (173), Dyslexicon (100), Vivax (40)
santygrass (4): RondoDimBuckle (141), DeeZees (39), pyxxy (14), Guillotine (192)
This is before Dys announced in the thread that they were almost certainly town bc on both wagons.

I don't get the impression that there was an attempted save of santy, which I think makes santy look good.

Vivax/santy not paired bc of the way Vivax switched wagons at the end while having no ideas who was a player vs NPC bc D2

+plus
santygrass wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 7:53 pm I also think Scotty is rand V .

I hate the Npc shield in slots like Sloonei or Guillo.

Risinq , Dyslexicon and Lily felt towny.

Dezeees awful posting
this would be pretty blatant TMI for scum to post D2 imo?

I declare town!santygrass

(but if there was a save, then one of Jack or Wigly is scum, ez pz)
Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm how does literally anyone including wolves know who are players unless scout found ppl lol
Dont get how you conclude with town santy off that post at all
They also added convo about who is npc and who isnt which was pretty pointless
Any wolf could say what santy said there without there being much TMI
Only tmi is who their friends are
So idk how you think that post would require tmi
And wolf santy wouldnt make the post cuz ????? It has tmi somehow???
I'm so confused
"how does literally anyone including wolves know who are players unless scout found ppl lol"
right that's my point

"And wolf santy wouldnt make the post cuz ?????"
you tell me this is my first game with santy 🤷 but I don't think that wolf santy would make a post like this on D2 when no one really knows who the NPCs are 🤷
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6018

Post by pyxxy »

Neon wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 4:08 am I see Porscha is still obv towning. That's good.

Pyxxy feels like the textbook definition of IIoA to me. Like the analysis that does exist is off and few and far between.
😳
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6019

Post by Seanzie »

falcon45ca wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:02 pm
Neon wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:56 pm That's a lot of eyes
Yeah, but I bet he only has one pair of glasses.




And if he has a second, they are in junk drawer somewhere with an out of date prescription
It isn't a pair of glasses, it is a nonagintuple of glasses.
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6020

Post by falcon45ca »

[VOTE: wilgy] aubergine



He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6021

Post by DrWilgy »

falcon45ca wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:13 pm [VOTE: wilgy] aubergine



He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad
You aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?
nutella wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:56 pm Image
@DrWilgy don't post any more k
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6022

Post by DrWilgy »

@pyxxy, don't get me wrong. I do appreciate the analysis. What conclusion do you draw from this though?

You've posted plenty, you've put a lot of energy into the game comparatively, but still I see nothing read based from you except the OMGUS towards me.

Nothing the past few pages have really shifted my mindset. Schia is a wolf. Pyxxy and Falcon are both fine yeets as well.
nutella wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:56 pm Image
@DrWilgy don't post any more k
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6023

Post by falcon45ca »

DrWilgy wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:35 pm
falcon45ca wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:13 pm [VOTE: wilgy] aubergine



He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad
You aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?
I call it the Pinata Tactica Principia


Poke stuff til things fall out
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6024

Post by Lumi »

Day 5 Vote Count
SoD: #5825 EoD: #0

Not Voting (7): MacDougall (2), sprityo (1), pyxxy (15), Lumi (13), SilverKeith (1), DeeZees (7), Porscha (8)
neon (3): nutella (9), Seanzie (18), santygrass (16)
falcon (2): Hally (11), Michelle (13)
nutella (2): Neon (40), NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (3)
schiavetto (2): DrWilgy (5), Vivax (6)
manny (1): Manny (11)
sprityo (1): Ricochet (5)
drwilgy (1): ilario (10)
wilgy (1): falcon45ca (5)
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6025

Post by Lumi »

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

Please use the correct name - Mac literally said in the rules that he's not counting votes on names that aren't spelled correctly
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6026

Post by Lumi »

Day 5 Vote Count
SoD: #5825 EoD: #0

Not Voting (6): MacDougall (2), sprityo (1), pyxxy (15), SilverKeith (1), DeeZees (7), Porscha (8)
neon (3): nutella (9), Seanzie (18), santygrass (16)
falcon (2): Hally (11), Michelle (13)
nutella (2): Neon (40), NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (3)
schiavetto (2): DrWilgy (5), Vivax (6)
manny (1): Manny (11)
falcon45ca (1): Lumi (15)
sprityo (1): Ricochet (5)
drwilgy (1): ilario (10)
wilgy (1): falcon45ca (5)
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6027

Post by Lumi »

@Hally
@Michelle
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6028

Post by nutella »

Mmm yeah I am worried about santy ngl especially if neon is town
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6029

Post by Seanzie »

Y'all should stop voting Falcon.
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6030

Post by nutella »

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

idk im feeling disillusioned
to the spoiler go the victories:
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nutella
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6031

Post by nutella »

Seanzie wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:54 pm Y'all should stop voting Falcon.
great timing
to the spoiler go the victories:
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nutella
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6032

Post by nutella »

who do i vote if i dont really feel confident abt neon but not ready to make the leap to santy yet
to the spoiler go the victories:
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6033

Post by Seanzie »

nutella wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:55 pm who do i vote if i dont really feel confident abt neon but not ready to make the leap to santy yet
Idk, Hally maybe?
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6034

Post by DrWilgy »

nutella wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:53 pm Mmm yeah I am worried about santy ngl especially if neon is town
What makes Santy wolfy? I still haven't seen it.
nutella wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:56 pm Image
@DrWilgy don't post any more k
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6035

Post by nutella »

Seanzie wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:57 pm
nutella wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:55 pm who do i vote if i dont really feel confident abt neon but not ready to make the leap to santy yet
Idk, Hally maybe?
lol
to the spoiler go the victories:
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6036

Post by nutella »

DrWilgy wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:57 pm
nutella wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:53 pm Mmm yeah I am worried about santy ngl especially if neon is town
What makes Santy wolfy? I still haven't seen it.
im worried hes actually a comfortable powerwolf (which is sorta his meta anyway) and was just pushing various miss wagons and pocketing me
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6037

Post by nutella »

and today hes very heavily leaning into the neon push which im not really all that confident on especially from her recent posting and idk im concerned im still going in all the wrong directions
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6038

Post by DrWilgy »

falcon45ca wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:49 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:35 pm
falcon45ca wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:13 pm [VOTE: wilgy] aubergine



He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad
You aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?
I call it the Pinata Tactica Principia


Poke stuff til things fall out
Why did you start with me specifically?
nutella wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:56 pm Image
@DrWilgy don't post any more k
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6039

Post by Lumi »

Also some quick game theory on how town should be deciding who to kill.

Imagine there's one player that is NPC 90% of the time and wolf 10% of the time (Schiavetto)
and another player that's NPC 40% of the time, wolf 30% of the time and town 30% of the time (falcon)

Who should town try to kill?

Well - town should be trying to maximize their win probability - and probably the closest accurate heuristic to win probability is what percentage of actual players are town.

The real players are pretty well known at this point, especially since I actually outed as a player now - so let's say wolves kill a player 90% of the time tonight.

That means that the ratio on Day 6 for chopping a town today will be (9.1/13.1) = 69.47% of players are town
For chopping an NPC it would be (10.1/14.1) = 71.63%
For chopping a wolf it would be (10.1/13.1) = 77.10%

So to figure out what chop gives the highest EV tomorrow, just take the weighted average for each players equity.

A schia chop weighted average is (90% * 71.63%) + (10% * 77.10%) = 72.18% EV
A falcon chop weighted average is (30% * 69.47% + 40% * 71.63% + 30% * 77.10%) = 72.62% EV

So even though the probability that schia is a wolf in worlds where schia is a player is waaay higher than the probability that falcon is a wolf in worlds where falcon is a player, chopping falcon here is still a better EV chop.


Also - I think falcon is just genuinely higher chance to flip wolf than Neon @DeeZees

Could be wrong, Neon hasn't really been townie, but also Neon has shown an ability to be townie even as wolf e.g the Invitational game, so I don't actually think Neon is super polarized?
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6040

Post by Lumi »

Also mindmeld with nutella

I've been kind of wary of Santy for a while - the lily push yesterday was kind of eye brow raising IMO since that was just a bad push, lily should never have been chopped there and I should have dropped the NPC LARP sooner in order to stop it, but I was doubting myself and worried I would be wrong and didn't want to be the fool that shielded a wolf.

The pushes on the Neon / Lily / Porscha trio all in all though feel like they lack actual reason and only exist now because of momentum there.
To be clear, I think both Neon and Porscha have slightly to decently >rand wolf equity because there have just been people that I get town vibes from more - but it's really not enough to make me want to wagon them.
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6041

Post by Lumi »

@ilario

Start playing. I'm checking you tonight, and if you come up as a player and you didn't actually engage with the game today, I'm probably going to tunnel you tomorrow
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6042

Post by Seanzie »

No to Falcon. No.

Not yet at least.
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6043

Post by ☆Princess Abigail☆ »

nutella wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:53 pm Mmm yeah I am worried about santy ngl especially if neon is town
I am very town
Bubbly Magical Girl who loves Caitlin more than anything in the world!

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You are Zenon, Town 1-shot Desperado. You’re known for posting a lot (namely in anime gif form), playing a lot, and, most importantly, making snap decisions – particularly in the endgame. In a recent game, Wild West FM, you were taken to final 3 and immediately voted the last wolf, resulting in a LyLo that was strictly speaking over in four minutes and two posts. This game, we’re giving you the chance to accomplish a similar feat.

High-Risk High-Reward (Day 2+, 1-shot, Immediate): Spend 6 Snapvote Charges, post Fuck it we ball glgl in bold red text, and ping a player. (When you use this ability, you should also inform the hosts privately.) If they are Town, you will strongman die. Otherwise, you will strongman kill that player. This action resolves instantly.
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6044

Post by ☆Princess Abigail☆ »

Lumi Porscha town forever
Bubbly Magical Girl who loves Caitlin more than anything in the world!

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Spoiler: show
You are Zenon, Town 1-shot Desperado. You’re known for posting a lot (namely in anime gif form), playing a lot, and, most importantly, making snap decisions – particularly in the endgame. In a recent game, Wild West FM, you were taken to final 3 and immediately voted the last wolf, resulting in a LyLo that was strictly speaking over in four minutes and two posts. This game, we’re giving you the chance to accomplish a similar feat.

High-Risk High-Reward (Day 2+, 1-shot, Immediate): Spend 6 Snapvote Charges, post Fuck it we ball glgl in bold red text, and ping a player. (When you use this ability, you should also inform the hosts privately.) If they are Town, you will strongman die. Otherwise, you will strongman kill that player. This action resolves instantly.
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6045

Post by falcon45ca »

Lumi wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:52 pm [VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

Please use the correct name - Mac literally said in the rules that he's not counting votes on names that aren't spelled correctly
I'm very confident I've already said I'm quite likely to break the rules.



Mac knows this, and as an Aussie is culturally contracted to support scofflaws
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6046

Post by falcon45ca »

DrWilgy wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 3:00 pm
falcon45ca wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:49 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:35 pm
falcon45ca wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:13 pm [VOTE: wilgy] aubergine



He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad
You aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?
I call it the Pinata Tactica Principia


Poke stuff til things fall out
Why did you start with me specifically?
I'm seeing things in your ISO that make me go Hmmmmmm
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6047

Post by Lumi »

:nicenod:
Seanzie wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 3:15 pm No to Falcon. No.

Not yet at least.
Overruled

Give a good reason if you want people to listen.
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6048

Post by falcon45ca »

Lumi wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 3:45 pm :nicenod:
Seanzie wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 3:15 pm No to Falcon. No.

Not yet at least.
Overruled

Give a good reason if you want people to listen.
falcon is town.



so is falcon45ca
we can't stop here...this is bat country!
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6049

Post by NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME »

I think I need more posts
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Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)

#6050

Post by NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME »

But I should be good now
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