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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 1]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:00 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
Epignosis wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:55 pm How about Dom? He's a great lynch, am I right?
If the deadline was in five seconds I'd vote for Dom.

Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 1]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:01 am
by Epignosis
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:00 am
Epignosis wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:55 pm How about Dom? He's a great lynch, am I right?
If the deadline was in five seconds I'd vote for Dom.
The deadline was fifteen minutes ago for many of us.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:03 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
Epignosis wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:24 pm Pardon me if I am misinterpreting your interpretation of your data, but wouldn't a 50% rate be significant given that the population of each instance is composed of less than 40% mafia?
I haven't performed a hypothesis test to discern "significance", but it's not a number that excites me with a sample size of 12.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:03 am
by Jackofhearts2005
Epignosis wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:56 pm As much as I believe Sloonei is a civilian, at this point, I find it bizarre that he is voting for Jack. I'm not going to rehash why. Use your clicker thingies if you need a reminder.
:confused:

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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:05 am
by Quin
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:03 am
Epignosis wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:56 pm As much as I believe Sloonei is a civilian, at this point, I find it bizarre that he is voting for Jack. I'm not going to rehash why. Use your clicker thingies if you need a reminder.
:confused:

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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:06 am
by Epignosis
Bitches pretending not to understand what I mean.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:07 am
by colonialbob
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:58 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:55 pm Well I liked this game.

Idk if it made me do better reads but it forced me to make a firm decision on several players. Felt the need to elaborate on Bob (poe/gut/no obvious pairing) and Eloh (feels real in spite of everything) in the moment but choose not to.
I'm following the progression of Jack's read on the Colonel, as the latter alluded to. He did move quickly from a bottom-tier mafia read to a GTH good read in quick succession. One question emerges here for colonialbob:

In a world where Jack is mafia and you are a civilian, what is the mafia benefit Jack enjoys by reversing his perspective of you in the wake of the negative press you received in the night phase? In this scenario you ought to look like a juicy mislynch steak.
His read was wishy-washy all game, constantly qualified with "I can't read bob". Swapping to a good read (but a questionable one) puts him in a position to be convinced I'm bad while also not leading the lynch on me. Remember his GTH reads followed a bit behind others... perhaps enough time to see several people viewing me as town?

Also helps if he and speed are w/w, let one keep pushing on me while one holds back.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:08 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
I don't recall many people hitting me up on this regarding Jack and the Day 2 no lynch.

If the theory is that Jack enjoyed the support of the Sutter Buttes, what is the point of projecting his own survival aloud as he did? He was tied in the tally with Sloonei, and had the latter kicked the bucket it would have looked like the work of a coin flip anyway.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:08 am
by Epignosis
Unless someone persuades me elsewhere, my vote is staying on Dom. I think speedchuck is cool (even if he's disappointing my wife), Long Con is an asshole toward me (which probably means he's good), and Jack is voting in self-preservation.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:19 am
by speedchuck
colonialbob wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:07 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:58 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:55 pm Well I liked this game.

Idk if it made me do better reads but it forced me to make a firm decision on several players. Felt the need to elaborate on Bob (poe/gut/no obvious pairing) and Eloh (feels real in spite of everything) in the moment but choose not to.
I'm following the progression of Jack's read on the Colonel, as the latter alluded to. He did move quickly from a bottom-tier mafia read to a GTH good read in quick succession. One question emerges here for colonialbob:

In a world where Jack is mafia and you are a civilian, what is the mafia benefit Jack enjoys by reversing his perspective of you in the wake of the negative press you received in the night phase? In this scenario you ought to look like a juicy mislynch steak.
His read was wishy-washy all game, constantly qualified with "I can't read bob". Swapping to a good read (but a questionable one) puts him in a position to be convinced I'm bad while also not leading the lynch on me. Remember his GTH reads followed a bit behind others... perhaps enough time to see several people viewing me as town?

Also helps if he and speed are w/w, let one keep pushing on me while one holds back.
You think I've been pushing on you?

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:23 am
by Epignosis
I see Kylemii has joined the Dom train.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:23 am
by speedchuck
As much as I despise having no flips, I'm also going to be a hypocrite real quick.

Dom is indeed a no-info lynch. He doesn't provide much help to figuring out the strong anti-alignments we have going on in the thread. Yet, I don't feel like we're starving for info, and I think the mafia kill (if it ever goes through) will be informative.

Dom is the way to go, guys. Let's make this game all about info and less about absent speculation.

linki: welcome aboard Kyle

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:23 am
by colonialbob
speedchuck wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:19 am
colonialbob wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:07 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:58 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Tue Nov 28, 2017 9:55 pm Well I liked this game.

Idk if it made me do better reads but it forced me to make a firm decision on several players. Felt the need to elaborate on Bob (poe/gut/no obvious pairing) and Eloh (feels real in spite of everything) in the moment but choose not to.
I'm following the progression of Jack's read on the Colonel, as the latter alluded to. He did move quickly from a bottom-tier mafia read to a GTH good read in quick succession. One question emerges here for colonialbob:

In a world where Jack is mafia and you are a civilian, what is the mafia benefit Jack enjoys by reversing his perspective of you in the wake of the negative press you received in the night phase? In this scenario you ought to look like a juicy mislynch steak.
His read was wishy-washy all game, constantly qualified with "I can't read bob". Swapping to a good read (but a questionable one) puts him in a position to be convinced I'm bad while also not leading the lynch on me. Remember his GTH reads followed a bit behind others... perhaps enough time to see several people viewing me as town?

Also helps if he and speed are w/w, let one keep pushing on me while one holds back.
You think I've been pushing on you?
I think you've consistently read me as bad while he's gone back and forth. Assuming you're teammates trying to get me lynched, having one who can push on me and one who can be 'convinced' isn't a bad idea if the day lends itself to that direction. Turns out today hasn't really.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:29 am
by speedchuck
colonialbob wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:23 am I think you've consistently read me as bad while he's gone back and forth. Assuming you're teammates trying to get me lynched, having one who can push on me and one who can be 'convinced' isn't a bad idea if the day lends itself to that direction. Turns out today hasn't really.
Eh. Fair enough. I just read "push" as in putting on pressure, and I really haven't done much about your read. I'll definitely ISO you before I cast a vote in a real lynch train on you.
I'm glad that the lynch didn't go your way tonight because I'm tired and don't want to ISO you. Gnight.

Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 1]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:35 am
by Epignosis
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:00 am
Epignosis wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:55 pm How about Dom? He's a great lynch, am I right?
If the deadline was in five seconds I'd vote for Dom.
This makes you a suspect for me. For real.

The deadline isn't in five seconds. I didn't ask you if Dom is a good five-second candidate. I asked you if he's a good lynch. Your response was nothing more than a way to put your vote on him at the end if that's how things worked out.

Before this, you just talk. You just...take a dump on the thread with stuff about "meta-reads:"
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:50 pm
dunya wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:15 am this is not a post indicative on how I personally feel about sig and speedchuck at this time but
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Tue Nov 21, 2017 10:31 pm sig as a civilian pirate was more engaged and effortful in the high-octane Day 1 aboard the pirate ship than he was in this high-octane Day 1. Bad vibes.
Yeah, but Day 1 was over Thanksgiving holidays wasn't it?
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Tue Nov 21, 2017 10:31 pm speedchuck was willing to engage suspects pointedly, and he cut down his suspect pool with transparent civilian reads (or at least pledges not to lynch). I also like the tone he exhibited in his handling of the Epi/LC feud. Good vibes.
You reference the pirate game to give a meta based read on sig, but what about speedchuck's general aura in the beginning of pirates game when he was throwing up statistics and reads? Yet one of those gave you good vibes and the other bad vibes. :ponder:
Meta reads have their place, but they are usually not ideal as a sole means of drawing reads. There's an application for them with low-content players who haven't provided the material necessary to assess them in preferable ways, i.e. thorough analysis, tone reads, or face value judgments of civilian utility. At the time I answered that prompt, I think sig had like five or six posts. For me, that's not often enough to develop an intuition. I'm willing to draw a read from the tabletop crumbs when I must, and often that's a time for a meta read to have some value. When there's more content available, as there was with speedchuck in that moment, then a purely meta read means less to me. It can still be a *component*, but it's going to move me less than my intuited reception of content at face value.
This is all discussing Mafia, but not this Mafia.

JaggedJimmyJay

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:39 am
by Kylemii
Hey Epig, by voting for Jay you're not so much putting Jay at a greater chance of lynching as you are putting Jack and Dom into potential close tie scenario

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:40 am
by Epignosis
Kylemii wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:39 am Hey Epig, by voting for Jay you're not so much putting Jay at a greater chance of lynching as you are putting Jack and Dom into potential close tie scenario
Should this concern me?

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:44 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
In which I discuss concerns about the sincerity of Elohcin's posts

Spoiler: show
Elohcin wrote: Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:34 pm Oh. My. Goodness. Reading this thread is like listening to my children bicker. I'm not done catching up, but I'm over it. This.post below is why I'm voting LC. He admits to making up a reason to accuse epi of being bad. This ia what mafia have to do to look like they are scum-hunting.

Long Con admitted to an underlying assumption in his accusation of Epignosis, but not to "making up a reason". The latter notion is silly.

Spoiler: show
Elohcin wrote: Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:42 pm I still feel like you were voting epi for a nonsense reason which is what mafia will do.

There's a disparity between vagueness and confidence here that doesn't work for me.

Spoiler: show
Elohcin wrote: Tue Nov 21, 2017 5:42 pm I think nutella is genuine as well. She seems to be trying to change up her game. I've been there before. I try to be different every game to keep people guessing but they still mostly guess I'm bad😋. Even though I think her posts are genuine thus far, that doesn't excuse her from veing bad imo. She may very well be.

Disclaimer is yuck.

Rainbow list looks almost randomized. Questions are addressed | in a limited capacity. The methodology is discussed, but not really the specific reads on specific players.

Spoiler: show
Elohcin wrote: Wed Nov 22, 2017 8:45 pm Heck....epi makes anlot os sense. He was wrong about my skimming though. Yall expect too much out of me but you see....he doesn't even expect me to read the thread. Lets find some middle ground here. Anyway... sloonei probably thinks I'm an easy target. He knows that when I'm accused I tend to shut down and give up rather than fight.

Is this a thing that Sloonei knows?

Spoiler: show
Elohcin wrote: Fri Nov 24, 2017 11:18 am My thoughts exactly! But...at least there hace been no night kills on top of the no lynches. Its like having a VERY long Day 1. But I think it's about time we get this party started and killing some bad guys. Hopefully I can catch up by the time day starts again.

This one is just a bit yikes at face value.

I'll offer this as a counter-example wherein the tone reads more sincerely. I appreciate anyone making and effort to dip their toes into the analytic realm. Elohcin, what inspired (hi Quin) you to give this a try this time?


VultureGate -- the subject of a lengthy exchange between Elohcin and Jack. Elohcin later clarified that her focus here was on LC's desire to lynch Epignosis. That doesn't mesh with the "I agree with this" given in response to DDL's initial vultures comment, which referred to some undefined plural set of players.

Spoiler: show
Elohcin wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:29 am
dunya wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:28 am I would like to think Mod Marmot wouldn't have replaced me into sprityo's role if there was a completely inactive scum team of 3. So I am ruling that possibility out completely from understanding what's been happening in the night phases. Is there a lurker/inactive amidst the scum team--more than likely. Are three users inactive? No.
This is so simple and makes so much sense. One of you talkers are definitely scum.

I don't think this follows from dunya's point unless a "talker" is defined to be literally anyone who has talked. The implication seems to be more in the direction of high-activity contributors. The confidence of this acceptance must also inherently hinge upon dunya being a civilian, which would be striking given the doubts expressed not long prior.

Spoiler: show
Elohcin wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:15 pm
Epignosis wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:05 pm
speedchuck wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:06 pm
JaggedJimmyJay - EGH
JJJ is never scum.
No, but really, I don't know what he'd be like as scum. If he's leading, and leading well, mafia will probably kill him and take care of things for us. If they start killing other leaders and JJJ takes control of the game, wipe him.
This is gross. All it is is an invitation for JJJ-less mafia to burn a lynch. Gross.
Yeah, shoot. Mafia ain't gonna take him out now. They know if they don't, you eventually will! I don't think this was a wise posy to make if you are civ, chuck.

The piggyback is yuck.

Spoiler: show
Elohcin wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:47 pm
Kylemii wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:49 pm The issue I'm running into is that at this point I suspect both dunya and jack, but they can't both be bad, dunya is voting for Jack, Jack is being irregularly difficult at all times.
I'd be up for a dunya lynch. I keep having this nagging voice in the back of my head that says, "She's bad, Tasha. B. A. D." But part of me feels bad because she does aeem to be really on top of things and very helpful, especially for a replacement.

We're back to a willingness to lynch dunya. Changing one's mind is fine, but I don't see a clear progression here.

Spoiler: show
Elohcin wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:08 pm And before y'all ask...I didn't go with aloonei b/c epi has me not second guessing my read, but second guessing if I'm right because I don't know why he survived before.

Concerned with appearances.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:45 am
by Jackofhearts2005
speedchuck wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:23 am As much as I despise having no flips, I'm also going to be a hypocrite real quick.

Dom is indeed a no-info lynch. He doesn't provide much help to figuring out the strong anti-alignments we have going on in the thread. Yet, I don't feel like we're starving for info, and I think the mafia kill (if it ever goes through) will be informative.

Dom is the way to go, guys. Let's make this game all about info and less about absent speculation.

linki: welcome aboard Kyle
I'm so glad you and Kyle are voicing mild objection to the Dom lynch. I always want to point out "but we learn nothing from an inactive lynch" but fear I'll look bad if they flip bad. If a scummer fools me into thinking they are good, I can explain that. If I mislynch a fellow townie, I can explain that. If I "defend" a baddie but they never said anything? There's no excuse. But I feel the need to weigh in on game theory and strategy, feel the need to say a Dom flip teach us nothing even as I vote Dom and home Dom gets lynched. Maddening.

Additionally, I'm glad for a really productive several days with lots of antialignments. This is a strong example I can point Realmsers to of all that can be done on "Day 1." The more reads and antialignments turn out to be correct, the better.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:45 am
by Kylemii
Epignosis wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:40 am
Kylemii wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:39 am Hey Epig, by voting for Jay you're not so much putting Jay at a greater chance of lynching as you are putting Jack and Dom into potential close tie scenario
Should this concern me?
Whether it concerns you or not is up to you. Do you want to lynch Jcubed?

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:46 am
by Epignosis
Spacedaisy has moved to Dom.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:47 am
by Epignosis
Kylemii wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:45 am
Epignosis wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:40 am
Kylemii wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:39 am Hey Epig, by voting for Jay you're not so much putting Jay at a greater chance of lynching as you are putting Jack and Dom into potential close tie scenario
Should this concern me?
Whether it concerns you or not is up to you. Do you want to lynch Jcubed?
What?

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:48 am
by Jackofhearts2005
Teach*es us nothing
*hope Dom gets lynched

Confession: On the Realms, if you edit a post within about 30 seconds of making it, it doesn't show the post as edited. I correct typos constantly this way at the risk of modkill. I think Bob caught me doing it once.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:49 am
by Epignosis
Epignosis wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:47 am
Kylemii wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:45 am
Epignosis wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:40 am
Kylemii wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:39 am Hey Epig, by voting for Jay you're not so much putting Jay at a greater chance of lynching as you are putting Jack and Dom into potential close tie scenario
Should this concern me?
Whether it concerns you or not is up to you. Do you want to lynch Jcubed?
What?
Oh. J^3. Got it.

Yes. I would lynch him. Hence my vote at this hour. I think he is doing busy work, not real work. His token look into Eloh doesn't help my opinion. She is always exhibiting the characteristics he is "penciling in" as bad (inconsistent, no clear progression). It doesn't help me work out who is bad. It looks like busy work.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:49 am
by Kylemii
Epignosis wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:47 am
Kylemii wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:45 am
Epignosis wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:40 am
Kylemii wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:39 am Hey Epig, by voting for Jay you're not so much putting Jay at a greater chance of lynching as you are putting Jack and Dom into potential close tie scenario
Should this concern me?
Whether it concerns you or not is up to you. Do you want to lynch Jcubed?
What?
JJJ or J³. I was being cool and trendy.
Epignosis wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:46 am Spacedaisy has moved to Dom.
Oh. No longer an issue.

Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 1]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:52 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
Epignosis wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:35 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:00 am
Epignosis wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:55 pm How about Dom? He's a great lynch, am I right?
If the deadline was in five seconds I'd vote for Dom.
This makes you a suspect for me. For real.

The deadline isn't in five seconds. I didn't ask you if Dom is a good five-second candidate. I asked you if he's a good lynch. Your response was nothing more than a way to put your vote on him at the end if that's how things worked out.
The dude has two posts. I've said often that I think a focus on the low-poster end of the spectrum would be a good idea, and he fits within that paradigm. I have nothing else to say about Dom. I would lynch Dom before Jack if that's where the tally rests when the time runs out. Discussion on more substantive suspicions prior to that moment may net a more inspired (hi Quin) option.
Epignosis wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:35 amThis is all discussing Mafia, but not this Mafia.

JaggedJimmyJay
dunya made an assertion about meta perceptions of sig and speedchuck and my applications thereof. I answered that assertion by describing why I would apply a meta read to one guy and not the other guy.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:54 am
by colonialbob
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:45 am
speedchuck wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:23 am As much as I despise having no flips, I'm also going to be a hypocrite real quick.

Dom is indeed a no-info lynch. He doesn't provide much help to figuring out the strong anti-alignments we have going on in the thread. Yet, I don't feel like we're starving for info, and I think the mafia kill (if it ever goes through) will be informative.

Dom is the way to go, guys. Let's make this game all about info and less about absent speculation.

linki: welcome aboard Kyle
I'm so glad you and Kyle are voicing mild objection to the Dom lynch. I always want to point out "but we learn nothing from an inactive lynch" but fear I'll look bad if they flip bad. If a scummer fools me into thinking they are good, I can explain that. If I mislynch a fellow townie, I can explain that. If I "defend" a baddie but they never said anything? There's no excuse. But I feel the need to weigh in on game theory and strategy, feel the need to say a Dom flip teach us nothing even as I vote Dom and home Dom gets lynched. Maddening.

Additionally, I'm glad for a really productive several days with lots of antialignments. This is a strong example I can point Realmsers to of all that can be done on "Day 1." The more reads and antialignments turn out to be correct, the better.
What's your ideal (realistic or at least semi-realistic) EoD scenario here then?

Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 1]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:54 am
by Epignosis
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:52 am
Epignosis wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:35 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:00 am
Epignosis wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:55 pm How about Dom? He's a great lynch, am I right?
If the deadline was in five seconds I'd vote for Dom.
This makes you a suspect for me. For real.

The deadline isn't in five seconds. I didn't ask you if Dom is a good five-second candidate. I asked you if he's a good lynch. Your response was nothing more than a way to put your vote on him at the end if that's how things worked out.
The dude has two posts. I've said often that I think a focus on the low-poster end of the spectrum would be a good idea, and he fits within that paradigm. I have nothing else to say about Dom. I would lynch Dom before Jack if that's where the tally rests when the time runs out. Discussion on more substantive suspicions prior to that moment may net a more inspired (hi Quin) option.
Epignosis wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:35 amThis is all discussing Mafia, but not this Mafia.

JaggedJimmyJay
dunya made an assertion about meta perceptions of sig and speedchuck and my applications thereof. I answered that assertion by describing why I would apply a meta read to one guy and not the other guy.
That works for me.

Back to Dom.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:55 am
by Epignosis
For now.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:57 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
Epignosis wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:49 am Yes. I would lynch him. Hence my vote at this hour. I think he is doing busy work, not real work. His token look into Eloh doesn't help my opinion. She is always exhibiting the characteristics he is "penciling in" as bad (inconsistent, no clear progression). It doesn't help me work out who is bad. It looks like busy work.
The lack of a clear progression was one thing I brought up, specifically re: the dunya read. Do you think the concerns about face-value sincerity I discussed also reflect the Elohcin norm?

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:59 am
by Sloonei
I don't hate a Dom lynch and I've started feeling less good about my jack vote. I haven't read much of anything since dunya joined the game though.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:03 am
by Epignosis
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:57 am
Epignosis wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:49 am Yes. I would lynch him. Hence my vote at this hour. I think he is doing busy work, not real work. His token look into Eloh doesn't help my opinion. She is always exhibiting the characteristics he is "penciling in" as bad (inconsistent, no clear progression). It doesn't help me work out who is bad. It looks like busy work.
The lack of a clear progression was one thing I brought up, specifically re: the dunya read. Do you think the concerns about face-value sincerity I discussed also reflect the Elohcin norm?
She's sick and doesn't know her head from her arse.

What troubles me most about you is that you act like Eloh is going to get Dunya lynched by lacking a "clear progression." How is she going to accomplish that?

To put it another way, what is her M.O. as mafia in this scenario? You looked at all her posts. What is her strategy? How does she help her team (who hasn't killed anybody, by the way)?

Your analysis looks like a weak means of being relevant to me. It isn't at all persuasive.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:05 am
by Epignosis
Are people honestly afraid of lynching 3J? If so, why?

I cannot recall a single time that has happened.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:05 am
by Jackofhearts2005
colonialbob wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:54 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:45 am
speedchuck wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:23 am As much as I despise having no flips, I'm also going to be a hypocrite real quick.

Dom is indeed a no-info lynch. He doesn't provide much help to figuring out the strong anti-alignments we have going on in the thread. Yet, I don't feel like we're starving for info, and I think the mafia kill (if it ever goes through) will be informative.

Dom is the way to go, guys. Let's make this game all about info and less about absent speculation.

linki: welcome aboard Kyle
I'm so glad you and Kyle are voicing mild objection to the Dom lynch. I always want to point out "but we learn nothing from an inactive lynch" but fear I'll look bad if they flip bad. If a scummer fools me into thinking they are good, I can explain that. If I mislynch a fellow townie, I can explain that. If I "defend" a baddie but they never said anything? There's no excuse. But I feel the need to weigh in on game theory and strategy, feel the need to say a Dom flip teach us nothing even as I vote Dom and home Dom gets lynched. Maddening.

Additionally, I'm glad for a really productive several days with lots of antialignments. This is a strong example I can point Realmsers to of all that can be done on "Day 1." The more reads and antialignments turn out to be correct, the better.
What's your ideal (realistic or at least semi-realistic) EoD scenario here then?
CFD to a suspect with other suspects with antialignments who then flips scum. So that's probably you or Speed.

More realistically, best case scenario I can actually hope for is Dom hangs and flips bad.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:08 am
by Sloonei
Is it too late to push colonialbob again?

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:09 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
Epignosis wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:03 amShe's sick and doesn't know her head from her arse.

What troubles me most about you is that you act like Eloh is going to get Dunya lynched by lacking a "clear progression." How is she going to accomplish that?

To put it another way, what is her M.O. as mafia in this scenario? You looked at all her posts. What is her strategy? How does she help her team (who hasn't killed anybody, by the way)?

Your analysis looks like a weak means of being relevant to me. It isn't at all persuasive.
The causal link you draw here does not reflect the point I want to make. I don't think Elohcin would be intent to try to get dunya lynch "by lacking a clear progression". That doesn't make sense. Indeed, the goal of getting dunya lynched would be secondary to the goal of looking like a player who is trying to solve the game. My concern is that Elohcin is in pursuit of appearances, not some long-game mafia-aligned objective or strategy. It's the most fundamental face value read there is. Players who are mafia-aligned in a game with only one mafia team want to look the part, and sometimes they struggle to do so.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:09 am
by Epignosis
Sloonei wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:08 am Is it too late to push colonialbob again?
No, but I need to hear exactly why you suspect Jack.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:10 am
by Jackofhearts2005
I find Epi's case on Jimmy to be intriguing. I don't think I'll follow it today but Epi and Eloh come out looking better than JJJ in all their recent interactions.

When's the last time Jimmy was bad?

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:11 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
Epignosis wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:05 am Are people honestly afraid of lynching 3J? If so, why?

I cannot recall a single time that has happened.
It's happened once on this site, in Tree Mafia. Technically I was "lynched" in the 2015 GOC and in GY!BE but survived.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:11 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:10 am I find Epi's case on Jimmy to be intriguing. I don't think I'll follow it today but Epi and Eloh come out looking better than JJJ in all their recent interactions.

When's the last time Jimmy was bad?
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Mon Nov 27, 2017 12:22 pm
speedchuck wrote: Mon Nov 27, 2017 12:20 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Mon Nov 27, 2017 12:17 pm Take a stance.
Give me a mafia game with you in it. Otherwise I can't metaread, and 'misrepresentation' or whatever it is you're doing isn't inherently scummy.
Transistor

Currents

Go crazy.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:13 am
by Epignosis
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:09 am
Epignosis wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:03 amShe's sick and doesn't know her head from her arse.

What troubles me most about you is that you act like Eloh is going to get Dunya lynched by lacking a "clear progression." How is she going to accomplish that?

To put it another way, what is her M.O. as mafia in this scenario? You looked at all her posts. What is her strategy? How does she help her team (who hasn't killed anybody, by the way)?

Your analysis looks like a weak means of being relevant to me. It isn't at all persuasive.
The causal link you draw here does not reflect the point I want to make. I don't think Elohcin would be intent to try to get dunya lynch "by lacking a clear progression". That doesn't make sense. Indeed, the goal of getting dunya lynched would be secondary to the goal of looking like a player who is trying to solve the game. My concern is that Elohcin is in pursuit of appearances, not some long-game mafia-aligned objective or strategy. It's the most fundamental face value read there is. Players who are mafia-aligned in a game with only one mafia team want to look the part, and sometimes they struggle to do so.
That's a fair take, although one I don't agree with.

Do you think Eloh is trying to look like she's trying to solve anything?

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:13 am
by Spacedaisy
Epignosis wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:46 am Spacedaisy has moved to Dom.
Yes apologies, I did this in the car and my phone was nearly dead so I was waiting until I got home to say anything about it. I am now home. I feel like I keep flipping back and forth on some people. My difficulty is sometimes when another player passionately tries to argue something that just seems so out there to me, I have trouble deciding if I think they are bad or just seeing things differently than I am. Especially when the way I see it has been laid out clearly (either by me or in some cases by other people as well). That is the difficulty I am having with Jack, Quin, and even sig to a lesser extent. It's why I feel like I keep flipping back and forth on them.

As far as Eloh, if I took what she said alone I would probably think she was bad. But as Epi pointed out, most of the things that would be baddie tells for other people are just how Eloh plays. Until we start getting some info and we can evaluate how she has interacted with others, I am not sure I could say for certain where I fall on her.

I'm not above voting an inactive player. I really think this is a discussion that should be had outside the confines of a game sometime, because I think "the maths" support lynching inactives when you don't have a firm lead taking you elsewhere. This is why my vote is currently on Dom. Despite everything we have had go on in these first two cycles, we have no solid information and we have been talking in circles around every little thing for so long that I feel like my reads are getting super muddy in my mind. So I am ok with voting out Dom who has done nothing at all.

Linki @ Epi: I'm not afraid of lynching Jay. My belief in his town alignment is starting to wane a bit.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:13 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:10 am I find Epi's case on Jimmy to be intriguing. I don't think I'll follow it today but Epi and Eloh come out looking better than JJJ in all their recent interactions.
Please elaborate.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:15 am
by Sloonei
Epignosis wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:09 am
Sloonei wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:08 am Is it too late to push colonialbob again?
No, but I need to hear exactly why you suspect Jack.
Even if I've changed my mind?

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:16 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
Epignosis wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:13 am Do you think Eloh is trying to look like she's trying to solve anything?
Yes. She has compiled quite a few posts to this point, and the content therein in thicker than one might expect without checking. It isn't all confusion and catch-up frustration.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:21 am
by Epignosis
Sloonei wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:15 am
Epignosis wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:09 am
Sloonei wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:08 am Is it too late to push colonialbob again?
No, but I need to hear exactly why you suspect Jack.
Even if I've changed my mind?
I didn't note that you did.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:23 am
by Jackofhearts2005
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:13 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:10 am I find Epi's case on Jimmy to be intriguing. I don't think I'll follow it today but Epi and Eloh come out looking better than JJJ in all their recent interactions.
Please elaborate.
I think you're basically describing town Eloh behavior and calling it a case for her badness. Epi calls you out.

Epi is also taking note of the Jack/Dunya square off in a way that doesn't look opportunistic. Feels way different from ME Epi, which is the last bad Epi I can remember. So that makes him look better.

Epi also characterizes your posts as easy analysis or analysis that leads nowhere. I could see the gth excercise that way as well.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:24 am
by Sloonei
Epignosis wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:21 am
Sloonei wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:15 am
Epignosis wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:09 am
Sloonei wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:08 am Is it too late to push colonialbob again?
No, but I need to hear exactly why you suspect Jack.
Even if I've changed my mind?
I didn't note that you did.
I don't have one solid reason to be voting for him at the moment, but a few loose and scattered things that have been bugging me. One that I've noted on a couple of occasions is that a number of his reads have not felt sincere to me (I noted his Day 1 nutella read). This one is primarily a tone issue and not something I can easily substantiate. There's also the issue of whether or not we believe his attitude with regards to Day 2's failed lynch, but that again is not something that can be substantiated.

I've had a change of heart. I'm trying to get caught up on things right now. I don't feel like I have a single solid read at the moment. I almost want to vote for Jay.

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:25 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:23 am I think you're basically describing town Eloh behavior and calling it a case for her badness. Epi calls you out
Can you recall an example of a town Elohcin that fits the general description I provided in my post?

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 3]

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:26 am
by Jackofhearts2005
To be clear, though, I still met townread Jimmy. Will have to check his baddie game posts. I don't know if I've ever played with bad Jimmy.